Like all predictions our model comes with some uncertainty, and the margin of error here could put the final number of Conservative seats from 311 to 367. This means that we absolutely cannot rule out the 2019
Absolute bonkers unbelievable with obvious wrongness.
It is also obviously almost as bad a poll for Sturgeon as Boris.
A Labour majority government as opposed to a Labour minority government reliant on SNP confidence and supply would be much less likely to grant an indyref2.
Gordon Brown would just lead a commission on some possible extra devolution
Absolute bonkers unbelievable with obvious wrongness.
It is also obviously almost as bad a poll for Sturgeon as Boris.
A Labour majority government as opposed to a Labour minority government reliant on SNP confidence and supply would be much less likely to grant an indyref2
Which is true. Doesn't alter the fact that the 2017 one was widely derided, even openly laughed at on TV. Labour gain Kensington and Canterbury and a hung Parliament ha ha. In fact it was spot on compared to anything or indeed almost anyone else.
Which is true. Doesn't alter the fact that the 2017 one was widely derided, even openly laughed at on TV. Labour gain Kensington and Canterbury and a hung Parliament ha ha. In fact it was spot on compared to anything or indeed almost anyone else.
That was based on a 9% lead though (43% to 34%) rather than the eventual 11.8% lead though. The outline was pretty good, at least in England and Wales. The Yougov MRP was not good for Scotland in 2017 or 2019 though.
The assumption seems to be that the Red Wall will swing back under a new Tory leader. But it never voted Tory for Johnson before, don't see why it would again, necessarily.
Absolute bonkers unbelievable with obvious wrongness.
After the reaction to the first YouGov MRP in 2017 I am loathe to call any MRP wrong given how wrong we all were.
Same here but I'd have to het a lot of detail on how the SNP take DCT, BRS and D&G in south and Orkney & Shetland in the North.
I strongly suspect a UK wide model had been applied to Scotland - the last 3 General Election exit polls have over stated the SNP with 2015 and 2019 saying they would take Orkney and Shetland
On a festive note, I managed to solve the problem of how roast turkey is dry and tasteless. The answer is butter. Put lots and lots of butter in and on the turkey. Also keep it covered in foil whilst in the oven until the last 40 minutes.
A year on from the end of the transition period, 49% of voters disapprove of how the government has handled Brexit, compared to 27% who approve.
26% say Brexit has gone worse than they expected, compared to 14% who think it has gone better. 44% say it's gone as expected.
Brexit is now a vote loser, the Tories bringing it up again will put people off
This is simply not true. Just because a large minority disapproved of how it was handled doesn't mean people don't prefer the Tories overall position on it. Especially if we focus on swing voters in marginal constituencies.
We were told for decades certain types "banging on about Europe" was a negative based on polling like this. But actually that was pro-European activist and media types cherry picking evidence without thinking about it critically. When actual election tests happened, Euroscepticism was always successful, whether the UKIP surge, the Cameron referendum promise, the referendum itself or the Boris Get Brexit Done push.
Pro-Europeans keep on trying to revert to the old received wisdom but it keeps being wrong.
The assumption seems to be that the Red Wall will swing back under a new Tory leader. But it never voted Tory for Johnson before, don't see why it would again, necessarily.
The Redwall won't swing back I agree with you.
The only Tory leader who would get a swingback would likely be Sunak but most of that would not be in the Redwall. No he would be more likely to get swingback in seats Cameron won in 2010 and 2015 but the Tories lost in 2017 and 2019 eg Enfield Southgate, Richmond Park, Putney and Battersea, St Albans, Croydon Central, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon etc.
Plus seats Cameron, May and Boris won where Labour are now forecast to gain
And that's very sad, she has my sympathy. But it doesn't make my statement wrong
I have heard the key Turn in the door once and turn once only We think of the key, each in his prison Thinking of the key, each confirms a prison Only at nightfall, aethereal rumours Revive for a moment a broken Coriolanus
Everybody has their own problems, but the problems are all basically the same. So your "Yebbut you just don't understand" point is true but uninteresting.
And that's very sad, she has my sympathy. But it doesn't make my statement wrong
Yes it does, because the quote was about losing a loved one. Unless you think she brushed it off after a quick look at her bank balance?
Which quote, the quote says she understands our pain. She doesn't
You're in a hole CHB. Best stop digging.
I don't mind. It's a point of principle which I am free to air.
She has my sympathy for losing a loved one, it doesn't mean she understands people in the UK. She's lived an immensely privileged life and many people died during COVID without being able to see their loved ones at all for months.
And the headline is utterly insulting, "subjects"? Really?
And that's very sad, she has my sympathy. But it doesn't make my statement wrong
Yes it does, because the quote was about losing a loved one. Unless you think she brushed it off after a quick look at her bank balance?
Which quote, the quote says she understands our pain. She doesn't
You're in a hole CHB. Best stop digging.
I don't mind. It's a point of principle which I am free to air.
She has my sympathy for losing a loved one, it doesn't mean she understands people in the UK. She's lived an immensely privileged life and many people died during COVID without being able to see their loved ones at all for months.
And the headline is utterly insulting, "subjects"? Really?
That's editorializing by the Express. The quote from the speech was this:
Although it’s a time of great happiness and good cheer for many, Christmas can be hard for those who have lost loved ones.
This year, especially, I understand why.
Hard to see how that can be a contentious statement.
I understand my POV is perhaps a minority one. And as I have said before, I am not calling to remove the Royal Family or any such thing. It is just what I think.
No but the idea she understands the grief of her "subjects" is ridiculous, her life is nothing like that of so many.
What the feck are you talking about? Do you even know what she said, or have you drawn all your conclusions from putting your own interpretation on top of the framing of her words in the Sunday Express?
New or continuous cough. High temperature. Loss of smell or taste. Still up as 3 main symptoms on NHS website. They really aren't at all.
Problem is - If they put up 'runny nose, headache, sore throat, however mild get a PCR test'; well that is probably about 75% of the country at this time of year.
Yes. However, those are the prevailing symptoms. 57 minutes without a comment. Is this a daytime record?
I feel like I am stating something incredibly obvious. But the testing system, and associated rules, are absurd to the point of being meaningless. One set of people are motivated to take tests: so, people who are employed and would rather have a day or two off work whilst they await test results. Another set of people have every incentive to avoid taking Covid tests - so, the self employed, or people who need to get out and about to get things done.
Even if no one ever admits to this being the truth, it is obvious to me that it is the case. Now we have got to the point where the official COVID symptoms are, it seems, not really correct; yet the impact on the economy of changing them, and the associated disruption, are such that they cannot be changed, because the effect of making a runny nose a covid symptom that justifies 'self isolating' and booking a test means that a large proportion of the country will be off work at anyone one time whilst they await their PCR test results.
The situation is a farce. The government keep it running, presumably so it can get data from the PCR tests about COVID. This is a bureaucratic monster that needs to be slayed.
You're assuming that most people don't care about public health, and are only motivated by whether they can game the system so that either they don't need to work even if they're healthy or they can mix with crowds even if they're infectious. It's obvious to you that people are like that, and obvious to me that they're not. After all, anyone who is that cynical can pull a sickie anyway - up to 3 days, most employers don't check up.
What does I think happen commonly is that people don't bother to report negative LFT results. As a result, we don't have accurate figures for the proportion of tests that are positive.
It is more complex than that. My point is that the system motivates one set of people to take an interest in public health, the other are essentially forced by their circumstances to disregard it. To me that is obvious. I am not making generalisations about people, certainly not that they don't care about public health. Some will be very concerned about it, others far less so.
But even if you are correct and that most people are actually acting in the interests of public health irrespective of how they are incentivised by the system, it is still absurd. That is because the official symptoms are no longer correct; as the symptoms of both the delta variant and the latest one are not the 3 main NHS symptoms that justify taking a PCR test.
And that's very sad, she has my sympathy. But it doesn't make my statement wrong
Yes it does, because the quote was about losing a loved one. Unless you think she brushed it off after a quick look at her bank balance?
Which quote, the quote says she understands our pain. She doesn't
You're in a hole CHB. Best stop digging.
The Queen devotion to service over decades has changed my view of her and I now have enormous respect for her
To downplay the loss of a life partner just simply shows a lack of empathy and not in the spirit of Christmas
Couldn't give a toss mate - that's not what I said
You clearly have
No I haven't.
I said I sympathise with the loss of her partner, it doesn't mean she understands what it's like for people in the country, her "subjects" as the headline says
And that's very sad, she has my sympathy. But it doesn't make my statement wrong
Yes it does, because the quote was about losing a loved one. Unless you think she brushed it off after a quick look at her bank balance?
Which quote, the quote says she understands our pain. She doesn't
You're in a hole CHB. Best stop digging.
The Queen devotion to service over decades has changed my view of her and I now have enormous respect for her
To downplay the loss of a life partner just simply shows a lack of empathy and not in the spirit of Christmas
Couldn't give a toss mate - that's not what I said
You clearly have
No I haven't.
I said I sympathise with the loss of her partner, it doesn't mean she understands what it's like for people in the country, her "subjects" as the headline says
Did you actually watch it, or read the transcript?
On a festive note, I managed to solve the problem of how roast turkey is dry and tasteless. The answer is butter. Put lots and lots of butter in and on the turkey. Also keep it covered in foil whilst in the oven until the last 40 minutes.
Yep, I did both today. Butter with clementine zest and chopped sage in it. And also soaked it in the fridge overnight in salted and sugared water which had had a range of fruit and spices boiled in it. Brine the Turkey and you’ll never look back.
No but the idea she understands the grief of her "subjects" is ridiculous, her life is nothing like that of so many.
What the feck are you talking about? Do you even know what she said, or have you drawn all your conclusions from putting your own interpretation on top of the framing of her words in the Sunday Express?
I am afraid he has lost it on this subject today, and Christmas day of all days
No but the idea she understands the grief of her "subjects" is ridiculous, her life is nothing like that of so many.
What the feck are you talking about? Do you even know what she said, or have you drawn all your conclusions from putting your own interpretation on top of the framing of her words in the Sunday Express?
I am afraid he has lost it on this subject today, and Christmas day of all days
Well it's official now you've spoken, thank you PB Master!
And that's very sad, she has my sympathy. But it doesn't make my statement wrong
Yes it does, because the quote was about losing a loved one. Unless you think she brushed it off after a quick look at her bank balance?
Which quote, the quote says she understands our pain. She doesn't
You're in a hole CHB. Best stop digging.
The Queen devotion to service over decades has changed my view of her and I now have enormous respect for her
To downplay the loss of a life partner just simply shows a lack of empathy and not in the spirit of Christmas
Couldn't give a toss mate - that's not what I said
You clearly have
No I haven't.
I said I sympathise with the loss of her partner, it doesn't mean she understands what it's like for people in the country, her "subjects" as the headline says
Maybe time for a cup of tea and a rich tea biscuit
And that's very sad, she has my sympathy. But it doesn't make my statement wrong
Yes it does, because the quote was about losing a loved one. Unless you think she brushed it off after a quick look at her bank balance?
Which quote, the quote says she understands our pain. She doesn't
You're in a hole CHB. Best stop digging.
The Queen devotion to service over decades has changed my view of her and I now have enormous respect for her
To downplay the loss of a life partner just simply shows a lack of empathy and not in the spirit of Christmas
Couldn't give a toss mate - that's not what I said
You clearly have
No I haven't.
I said I sympathise with the loss of her partner, it doesn't mean she understands what it's like for people in the country, her "subjects" as the headline says
Maybe time for a cup of tea and a rich tea biscuit
New or continuous cough. High temperature. Loss of smell or taste. Still up as 3 main symptoms on NHS website. They really aren't at all.
Problem is - If they put up 'runny nose, headache, sore throat, however mild get a PCR test'; well that is probably about 75% of the country at this time of year.
Yes. However, those are the prevailing symptoms. 57 minutes without a comment. Is this a daytime record?
I feel like I am stating something incredibly obvious. But the testing system, and associated rules, are absurd to the point of being meaningless. One set of people are motivated to take tests: so, people who are employed and would rather have a day or two off work whilst they await test results. Another set of people have every incentive to avoid taking Covid tests - so, the self employed, or people who need to get out and about to get things done.
Even if no one ever admits to this being the truth, it is obvious to me that it is the case. Now we have got to the point where the official COVID symptoms are, it seems, not really correct; yet the impact on the economy of changing them, and the associated disruption, are such that they cannot be changed, because the effect of making a runny nose a covid symptom that justifies 'self isolating' and booking a test means that a large proportion of the country will be off work at anyone one time whilst they await their PCR test results.
The situation is a farce. The government keep it running, presumably so it can get data from the PCR tests about COVID. This is a bureaucratic monster that needs to be slayed.
You're assuming that most people don't care about public health, and are only motivated by whether they can game the system so that either they don't need to work even if they're healthy or they can mix with crowds even if they're infectious. It's obvious to you that people are like that, and obvious to me that they're not. After all, anyone who is that cynical can pull a sickie anyway - up to 3 days, most employers don't check up.
What does I think happen commonly is that people don't bother to report negative LFT results. As a result, we don't have accurate figures for the proportion of tests that are positive.
It is more complex than that. My point is that the system motivates one set of people to take an interest in public health, the other are essentially forced by their circumstances to disregard it. To me that is obvious. I am not making generalisations about people, certainly not that they don't care about public health. Some will be very concerned about it, others far less so.
But even if you are correct and that most people are actually acting in the interests of public health irrespective of how they are incentivised by the system, it is still absurd. That is because the official symptoms are no longer correct; as the symptoms of both the delta variant and the latest one are not the 3 main NHS symptoms that justify taking a PCR test.
Yes, I do agree with that!
The obvious problem for the Government is how they transition at the appropriate moment (some would say already!) from a system of mass testing subsidised by the public purse to something more targeted, as well as downgrading the need to self isolate given that in an era of mass infection that will at some point (assuming the virus trends towards "mildness" - noting that "mildness" does not mean "harmless" cf flu) become necessary and indeed appropriate, whilst not prompting claims that they are downgrading a focus on public health merely to save money (with associated accusations that they are "reducing transparency"). Many people i think are utterly fed up of the "tyranny of the test", many equally are almost addicted to it.
On a festive note, I managed to solve the problem of how roast turkey is dry and tasteless. The answer is butter. Put lots and lots of butter in and on the turkey. Also keep it covered in foil whilst in the oven until the last 40 minutes.
Yep, I did both today. Butter with clementine zest and chopped sage in it. And also soaked it in the fridge overnight in salted and sugared water which had had a range of fruit and spices boiled in it. Brine the Turkey and you’ll never look back.
Stuff under the skin with sage and butter.
My cooking experience today was providing food variously for vegetarians, carnivores (me included), and the severely FODMAP intolerant (definitely no onion in the stuffing). Somewhat complicated.
Comments
LAB: 39% (-2)
CON: 32% (-)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
via @OpiniumResearch, 21 - 23 Dec
Chgs. w 10 Dec
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1474832949120012294
Starmer must resign!
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1474832569434656769?s=20
The Tories got a majority of 80
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/final-2019-general-election-mrp-model-small-
https://www.opinium.com/polling-tables-archive/ https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1474833576025739265/photo/1
...and a Happy New Year !!!
Within the MoE, they got it right
A Labour majority government as opposed to a Labour minority government reliant on SNP confidence and supply would be much less likely to grant an indyref2.
Gordon Brown would just lead a commission on some possible extra devolution
26% say Brexit has gone worse than they expected, compared to 14% who think it has gone better. 44% say it's gone as expected. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1474834079145029632/photo/1
A year on from the end of the transition period, 49% of voters disapprove of how the government has handled Brexit, compared to 27% who approve.
26% say Brexit has gone worse than they expected, compared to 14% who think it has gone better. 44% say it's gone as expected.
Brexit is now a vote loser, the Tories bringing it up again will put people off
Doesn't alter the fact that the 2017 one was widely derided, even openly laughed at on TV. Labour gain Kensington and Canterbury and a hung Parliament ha ha.
In fact it was spot on compared to anything or indeed almost anyone else.
SUNDAY EXPRESS: I understand your pain
How do you, have you ever lived in poverty
Happy Christmas, Keir!
I strongly suspect a UK wide model had been applied to Scotland - the last 3 General Election exit polls have over stated the SNP with 2015 and 2019 saying they would take Orkney and Shetland
You would think I would know by now.
Edit: and "our pain"?
We were told for decades certain types "banging on about Europe" was a negative based on polling like this. But actually that was pro-European activist and media types cherry picking evidence without thinking about it critically. When actual election tests happened, Euroscepticism was always successful, whether the UKIP surge, the Cameron referendum promise, the referendum itself or the Boris Get Brexit Done push.
Pro-Europeans keep on trying to revert to the old received wisdom but it keeps being wrong.
The only Tory leader who would get a swingback would likely be Sunak but most of that would not be in the Redwall. No he would be more likely to get swingback in seats Cameron won in 2010 and 2015 but the Tories lost in 2017 and 2019 eg Enfield Southgate, Richmond Park, Putney and Battersea, St Albans, Croydon Central, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon etc.
Plus seats Cameron, May and Boris won where Labour are now forecast to gain
Turn in the door once and turn once only
We think of the key, each in his prison
Thinking of the key, each confirms a prison
Only at nightfall, aethereal rumours
Revive for a moment a broken Coriolanus
Everybody has their own problems, but the problems are all basically the same. So your "Yebbut you just don't understand" point is true but uninteresting.
She has my sympathy for losing a loved one, it doesn't mean she understands people in the UK. She's lived an immensely privileged life and many people died during COVID without being able to see their loved ones at all for months.
And the headline is utterly insulting, "subjects"? Really?
Although it’s a time of great happiness and good cheer for many, Christmas can be hard for those who have lost loved ones.
This year, especially, I understand why.
Hard to see how that can be a contentious statement.
So I've gone Old School and just enjoyed a chocolate bar and two satsumas. The Christmas of a bygone age.
“Subjects” is outmoded - I think in the UK since at least the 1980s. But that is the fault of the Express not her.
No idea how complete and reliable it is but here is my updated projection
Week 51 Admissions(Prediction): 8041 ( Down on Week 50)
Week 51 Deaths (Prediction): 592 ( Up on week 50)
2.8% Ventilated
15.6% Oxygenated
To downplay the loss of a life partner just simply shows a lack of empathy and not in the spirit of Christmas
I said I sympathise with the loss of her partner, it doesn't mean she understands what it's like for people in the country, her "subjects" as the headline says
https://twitter.com/ASpaceSlav/status/1474318138749689856
My cooking experience today was providing food variously for vegetarians, carnivores (me included), and the severely FODMAP intolerant (definitely no onion in the stuffing). Somewhat complicated.
Human grief at the loss of a partner is human grief at the loss of a partner, no matter how rich or poor you are.