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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The European Parliament elections: The nonsense voting system that the coalition should have scrapped

Today we have, see above, the first YouGov poll for the big UK election this year that takes place on May 22nd when 73 UK MEPs will be elected to the European Parliament.

Read the full story here

JohnLoony

First Past The Post!
Free the Thailand One!
Bring Back SeanT!

OldKingCole

I've long been frustrated that I cannot vote for the "local" long-serving and hardworking Labour MEP Richard Howitt, but for the LD list. AMS, as in Scotland or Wales would enable me to do this.

Scott_P

Least surprising story of the day

Alex Salmond’s plan for an independent Scotland to continue to charge English students tuition fees is illegal, a former European Commissioner for Education has declared.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10575630/Alex-Salmond-tuition-fees-pledge-illegal.html

JosiasJessop

On the rigging of crime statistics:

This is reprehensible for all the obvious reasons, but what happens if they were rigged in certain directions, and the change was the basis for, or eased, changes to legislation?

edmundintokyo

Obviously STV would be better but I doubt there would be much practical difference. only 22% can name their Westminster MP, and it's hard to imagine recognition in the Euros getting remotely as high as Westminster whatever the electoral system.

Most voters will go by the party brand anyway, which is a usually a better basis for the decision than the qualities of the individual MP, since key decisions like budgets and confidence votes mostly follow the party line.

edmundintokyo

JosiasJessop said:

On the rigging of crime statistics:

This is reprehensible for all the obvious reasons, but what happens if they were rigged in certain directions, and the change was the basis for, or eased, changes to legislation?

You worry too much, modern governments avoid the problem of evidence turning out to be unreliable by ignoring evidence and passing whatever law sounds the best to the focus group.

dr_spyn

Rotten system for a rotten Parliament. Run for parties, by parties...

Party List systems allow for greater manipulation by party leaders to exercise more patronage, not that they are averse to having A lists, all wimmin short lists, for Westminster elections. To be honest I cannot think of the names of the MEPs for my part of the world. Yet I now the names of the ward councillors, and the MP for my area.

The party list offers the opportunity to give Cameron, Clegg and Miliband a good kicking, but would it mean the election of fruit cake eaters or the Green solar powered cyclists?

edmundintokyo

dr_spyn said:

Rotten system for a rotten Parliament. Run for parties, by parties...

Party List systems allow for greater manipulation by party leaders to exercise more patronage, not that they are averse to having A lists, all wimmin short lists, for Westminster elections. To be honest I cannot think of the names of the MEPs for my part of the world. Yet I now the names of the ward councillors, and the MP for my area.

The party list offers the opportunity to give Cameron, Clegg and Miliband a good kicking, but would it mean the election of fruit cake eaters or the Green solar powered cyclists?

Closed lists obviously give a lot of power to whoever selects compared to open lists, but this isn't obviously true compared to single-member FPTP, which is no surprise since single-member FPTP is just a closed list of one.

In both cases there's a halfway solution open to the parties if they want to take it, which is to choose the list (in the FPTP case the list of one) using an open primary.

SouthamObserver

Ironically, once elected MEPs are much less likely to toe the party line than MPs. It's probably because there is so little coverage of what they do. It's worth remembering that the turnout for Euro elections is low across the EU when compared to national elections. We're towards the bottom, but we may well be for nationals too (just guessing on that, so could well be wrong).

CarlottaVance

Lord Carlile on R4 attacking Webster's report and claiming something not in the report that the claims wouldn't have passed the burden for civil proof.......it was told to him in private.......and Rennard has "rejoined the Lib Dems in the HoL last night".....

dr_spyn

@Edmunintokyo Open primaries what ever happened to them?

Will be interested to see if there any poster has offered a defence of the current system of Euro Elections.

DecrepitJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

Lord Carlile on R4 attacking Webster's report and claiming something not in the report that the claims wouldn't have passed the burden for civil proof.......it was told to him in private.......and Rennard has "rejoined the Lib Dems in the HoL last night".....

Secret information that Rennard was never on telly in the 1970s?

And where's tap when we need to know how this news came out when three court cases coincidentally started on the same day?

DecrepitJohnL

edmundintokyo said:

dr_spyn said:

Rotten system for a rotten Parliament. Run for parties, by parties...

Party List systems allow for greater manipulation by party leaders to exercise more patronage, not that they are averse to having A lists, all wimmin short lists, for Westminster elections. To be honest I cannot think of the names of the MEPs for my part of the world. Yet I now the names of the ward councillors, and the MP for my area.

The party list offers the opportunity to give Cameron, Clegg and Miliband a good kicking, but would it mean the election of fruit cake eaters or the Green solar powered cyclists?

Closed lists obviously give a lot of power to whoever selects compared to open lists, but this isn't obviously true compared to single-member FPTP, which is no surprise since single-member FPTP is just a closed list of one.

In both cases there's a halfway solution open to the parties if they want to take it, which is to choose the list (in the FPTP case the list of one) using an open primary.

Are open primaries really a good idea or are they open to influence by dedicated extremists and nut jobs, as in America or trotskyists here in decades gone by?

Flanders

Although this is terrible for the LDs, because of the variation in the number of MEPs returned from each region, they would not be wiped out. Using http://www.euroelection.co.uk/ the LDs would wins seats in the North West, South West and South East. I can't see Labour doing this well, and can see the LDs still getting in in London, Eastern and Yorkshire, and don't rule out West Midlands either

edmundintokyo

DecrepitJohnL said:

edmundintokyo said:

Closed lists obviously give a lot of power to whoever selects compared to open lists, but this isn't obviously true compared to single-member FPTP, which is no surprise since single-member FPTP is just a closed list of one.

In both cases there's a halfway solution open to the parties if they want to take it, which is to choose the list (in the FPTP case the list of one) using an open primary.

Are open primaries really a good idea or are they open to influence by dedicated extremists and nut jobs, as in America or trotskyists here in decades gone by?

DecrepitJohnL said:

edmundintokyo said:

dr_spyn said:

Rotten system for a rotten Parliament. Run for parties, by parties...

Party List systems allow for greater manipulation by party leaders to exercise more patronage, not that they are averse to having A lists, all wimmin short lists, for Westminster elections. To be honest I cannot think of the names of the MEPs for my part of the world. Yet I now the names of the ward councillors, and the MP for my area.

The party list offers the opportunity to give Cameron, Clegg and Miliband a good kicking, but would it mean the election of fruit cake eaters or the Green solar powered cyclists?

Closed lists obviously give a lot of power to whoever selects compared to open lists, but this isn't obviously true compared to single-member FPTP, which is no surprise since single-member FPTP is just a closed list of one.

In both cases there's a halfway solution open to the parties if they want to take it, which is to choose the list (in the FPTP case the list of one) using an open primary.

Are open primaries really a good idea or are they open to influence by dedicated extremists and nut jobs, as in America or trotskyists here in decades gone by?

This is certainly a potential issue, but arguably the same is true of the system of selection by local constituency associations. The latter may actually be worse, because in a lot of cases the memberships are so teensy that a small group of nutjobs could take control of a selection without even needing to develop a line of _popular_ nutjobbery.

The bigger question here is whether we want MPs to be accountable to the people who selected them. The current Republican problem is that it's easy for the base to scare incumbents, which turns out to be bad for the party as a whole because it stops them taking the moderate positions they need to win the swing districts. Maybe the solution is to pick the candidates in a primary (or use an open list, which is equivalent to a primary on the same day as the election) but work out a way to give incumbents some kind of structural advantage, if they don't have enough of one already...

rcs1000

I think they introduce a new voting system for the European elections: FPTR

This is "First Past the Rennard", and would consist of a series of challenges where would be female MEPs have to get past Lord Rennard, who would be blocking a narrow corridor.

I think would significantly increase voter engagement and be generally good for British politics.

DavidL

As a matter of principle I agree with OGH. I do not like list systems for the reasons he states. But in reality the idea that any MEP has any kind of personal following (with the possible exceptions of Hannan and Farage) is fairly laughable.

Not only could the vast majority of us not name one of our MEPs, we have absolutely no idea about what their position was on anything they may have voted on, how often they actually turned up, whether they ever spoke on anything, whether their expense claims were merely ridiculous or truly outrageous etc etc. In short we have no basis upon which to exercise a personal vote for this absurd Parliament.

As I have pointed out before turnout across the EU has fallen at every single election to date and now stands at an average of 43%. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/aboutparliament/en/000cdcd9d4/Turnout-(1979-2009).html

We have always had one of the lowest turnouts but many countries that started higher are now catching up with us. As a concept the EU Parliament is a failure and we need to try something else.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

I think they introduce a new voting system for the European elections: FPTR

This is "First Past the Rennard", and would consist of a series of challenges where would be female MEPs have to get past Lord Rennard, who would be blocking a narrow corridor.

I think would significantly increase voter engagement and be generally good for British politics.

Perhaps the French could have a FPTM, or first past the moped where candidates have to meet various women scattered around Paris by use of their moped with the winning candidates having the most conquests.

Innocent_Abroad

The idea of Peebies casting aspersions on others as probable "nutjobs" has a charm of its own, I suppose...

GeoffM

OldKingCole said:

I've long been frustrated that I cannot vote for the "local" long-serving and hardworking Labour MEP Richard Howitt, but for the LD list. AMS, as in Scotland or Wales would enable me to do this.

So you're advocating the voting system which best fits your exact and current preference of who you'd like to vote for and how?

Cheers for that. I'm going to push for the YouCanOnlyVoteGeoff system which, based on the same intellectual rigour as your logic, is a great step forward.

GeoffM

Innocent_Abroad said:

The idea of Peebies casting aspersions on others as probable "nutjobs" has a charm of its own, I suppose...

It depends on your definition of "nutjob".
I define it as "anyone to the left of me".
Your criteria may be different.

AlastairMeeks

Turnout is low because the public don't regard it of any importance who is their MEP. The system is not the problem; the problem is the public standing of the European Parliament.

I just looked at the list of London MEPs. I'd vaguely heard of two, but couldn't tell you anything about either of them.

Financier

I agree with OGH, but of course there is the same problem in Scotland and Wales regarding the Regional seats (as opposed to Constituency) where the priority is to be at the top of the regional list.

In Wales where there are 4 MEPS, not one is based in North Wales and having done a quick web search could only find the Welsh contact details for two of them.

another_richard

RN from yesturday morning:

" As any fule no, the government is NOT a majority shareholder in RBS, so RBS will NOT be making any request to the government. The RBS shares are owned by an organisation called UK Financial Investments Limited, very sensibly set up by the last Labour government specifically to keep decisions such as this at arms-length from the government. "

The government would be very well advised NOT to try that argument.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of it **, it sounds like nothing else but an attempt to allow fatcat bankers to get enormous bonuses.

Which, if I need to point out, is not popular at a time of pay freezes and falling living standards.

"One rule for them and one rule for us" rather than "We're all in this together".

** And to 99% of the population it sounds like legal sophistry - who owns UK Finanacial Investments Limited and appoints its directors ? Ultimately the trail goes back to George Osborne.

JosiasJessop

GeoffM said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The idea of Peebies casting aspersions on others as probable "nutjobs" has a charm of its own, I suppose...

It depends on your definition of "nutjob".
I define it as "anyone to the left of me".
Your criteria may be different.

What proportion of the population are nutjobs in your mind? 95%?

;-)

edmundintokyo

DavidL said:

As a matter of principle I agree with OGH. I do not like list systems for the reasons he states. But in reality the idea that any MEP has any kind of personal following (with the possible exceptions of Hannan and Farage) is fairly laughable.

Not only could the vast majority of us not name one of our MEPs, we have absolutely no idea about what their position was on anything they may have voted on, how often they actually turned up, whether they ever spoke on anything, whether their expense claims were merely ridiculous or truly outrageous etc etc. In short we have no basis upon which to exercise a personal vote for this absurd Parliament.

As I have pointed out before turnout across the EU has fallen at every single election to date and now stands at an average of 43%. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/aboutparliament/en/000cdcd9d4/Turnout-(1979-2009).html

We have always had one of the lowest turnouts but many countries that started higher are now catching up with us. As a concept the EU Parliament is a failure and we need to try something else.

If your argument is right we need to get rid of Westminster as well. Most people don't know who their MPs are, what they do, what expenses they claim, whether they turn up, etc etc etc. Turnout is on a long-term downward trend to the point where something like one eligible voter in three never votes.

That's before we get started on local elections, which are as low as or lower in turnout than the Euros, London mayoral elections which aren't much higher, or by-elections, which are lower still.

GeoffM

JosiasJessop said:

GeoffM said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The idea of Peebies casting aspersions on others as probable "nutjobs" has a charm of its own, I suppose...

It depends on your definition of "nutjob".
I define it as "anyone to the left of me".
Your criteria may be different.

What proportion of the population are nutjobs in your mind? 95%?

;-)

I'd say that was a fair assessment! :-D

isam

@ScottP said it. Would be illegal and therefore impossible for Farage to be iinvolved in the leaders debates... I disagreed and said I'd have £100@9/4 that Farage was involved in at least one of the debates... Here was his response

"isam said:

Hi

Did we have that bet on the debates? £100@9/4 Farage appears in at least one

-------------
@ScottP said
I thought you had given up.

You still have not framed the bet in unambiguous terms.

George Osborne appeared in at least one nationally televised debate during the general election campaign last time round, as did Alex Salmond, but I suspect that is not what you meant.

Also, the financial terms are unclear.

Are you offering to lay 100 @ 4/9 (you win 100, I win 44.44) or are you asking me to lay 100 @ 9/4 (I win 100, you win 225)?

------------------

Whos being awkward here???!! Jesus!

I'm not a snide, I wasn't trying to have him over, £100@9/4 is very very simple to understand.

Why did you bottle the bet? @ScottP

This is an open site, plenty of people know the betting game, why not let an imprtiał observer outline the terms if you don't understand what £100@9/4 mens or "Farage to be involved in at least one of the leader debates" means?

Mean involved in the same way the three main party leaders in 2010 were, on stage debating for t least part of the programme, not sitting in the audience, not on webcam from the pub etc etc

but all this fussing makes me think you either don't have the courage of your convictions, or haven't got £225

Scott_P

isam said:

Why did you bottle the bet? @ScottP

Ok isam, you have a bigger wad than me. Happy now?

Farage still won't appear.

DavidL

edmundintokyo said:

DavidL said:

As a matter of principle I agree with OGH. I do not like list systems for the reasons he states. But in reality the idea that any MEP has any kind of personal following (with the possible exceptions of Hannan and Farage) is fairly laughable.

Not only could the vast majority of us not name one of our MEPs, we have absolutely no idea about what their position was on anything they may have voted on, how often they actually turned up, whether they ever spoke on anything, whether their expense claims were merely ridiculous or truly outrageous etc etc. In short we have no basis upon which to exercise a personal vote for this absurd Parliament.

As I have pointed out before turnout across the EU has fallen at every single election to date and now stands at an average of 43%. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/aboutparliament/en/000cdcd9d4/Turnout-(1979-2009).html

We have always had one of the lowest turnouts but many countries that started higher are now catching up with us. As a concept the EU Parliament is a failure and we need to try something else.

If your argument is right we need to get rid of Westminster as well. Most people don't know who their MPs are, what they do, what expenses they claim, whether they turn up, etc etc etc. Turnout is on a long-term downward trend to the point where something like one eligible voter in three never votes.

That's before we get started on local elections, which are as low as or lower in turnout than the Euros, London mayoral elections which aren't much higher, or by-elections, which are lower still.

I don't agree Edmund. Local press nearly always cover any speeches by local MPs, the expenses scandal shows the degree of scrutiny, when an MP such as Gordon Brown or George Galloway consistently fails to turn up it is repeatedly commented upon and party discipline makes attendance generally much higher in Westminster.

But the point I was making was that around Europe there are a series of different electoral systems used for the EU Parliament and none of them are creating any enthusiasm (Luxembourg is a notable exception). It is the institution that is broken, not the system.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1: Quantum deal with Lotus officially over:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12473/9117675/lotus-chairman-gerard-lopez-says-the-team-have-broken-off-talks-with-quantum

£114m of debt for the team, but £80m is internal (owed to Genii, I think).

In tennis news, Simon lost the first set and is a break down (5-4) in the second, but play was suspended.

isam

Scott_P said:

isam said:

Why did you bottle the bet? @ScottP

Ok isam, you have a bigger wad than me. Happy now?

Farage still won't appear.

I probably don't.

Why did you get so uppity and evasive about it all, and try to say it was unclear etc rather than say you just don't fancy the bet? No need to have an argument about the bet as well as the debates!

The money is irrelevant, I'll have £20 to win £45if you like, and the winner donates to the site?

Financier

OT

From the BP Energy Outlook to 2035 for the EU

"The EU is overtaken by China as the world’s largest energy importing region in 2030, but it remains the largest net importer of natural gas.
• Production of all fossil fuels decline in the EU, led by oil (-57%), followed by coal (-49%) and natural gas (-46%).
• Renewables in power generation overtake nuclear as the dominant domestic energy source in 2023, and make up 37% of the EU’s energy production in 2035.
• Imports of oil (-23%) and coal (-49%) will decline but imports of gas rise by 49%. The EU’s gas import dependency rises from 66% to 84%.
• The EU’s share of global renewables in power is set to decline from 40% today to 23% in 2035 as it loses its top position to China in 2031."

So it looks like the EU be even more reliant on Russia and Middle East for supplies of gas - what happened to energy security?

Blue_rog

O/T

I see the FTSE is close to erasing the legacy of 13 years Labour misrule. Here's hoping

edmundintokyo

DavidL said:

I don't agree Edmund. Local press nearly always cover any speeches by local MPs, the expenses scandal shows the degree of scrutiny, when an MP such as Gordon Brown or George Galloway consistently fails to turn up it is repeatedly commented upon and party discipline makes attendance generally much higher in Westminster.

The press may cover it but hardly any of the voters pay attention. If only 22% know who their MP is, what proportion do you think know what they're saying?

DavidL said:

But the point I was making was that around Europe there are a series of different electoral systems used for the EU Parliament and none of them are creating any enthusiasm (Luxembourg is a notable exception). It is the institution that is broken, not the system.

I agree with the main point there. I don't think changing the voting system will do much for turnout. The fact is that most voters don't follow politics very closely and aren't really interested in the vote for anything except their country's Prime Minister or President. I suppose you could argue that this means we should only have elections for the top job and abolish the Euros, local elections, regions and mayors. But while more participation would be nice, I don't really see the problem in leaving it to the voters who are interested.

Scott_P

isam said:

No need to have an argument about the bet as well as the debates!

You are the one who wanted to bet. All this talk of cojones. I don't feel the need to whip out my wad to prove how much I believe what I post.

Farage will not appear. Others are free to disagree and post their thoughts.

I don't denigrate anyone who doesn't feel the need to cry "I bet you" in the manner of schoolchildren.

You are entitled to your opinions.

Now, I really think we have bored people enough with this.

You win. Happy now?

TGOHF

Nevermind who your MEP is - what do MEPs do ?

And if they vote for something can the commission veto it ?

Total waste of money.

Morris_Dancer

Come on, chaps. It's one thing to argue about the terms of a bet, but it's quite another to bicker about a bet you haven't actually made.

Morris Dancer bets are renowned for their clarity. For example, right now my Simon bet is looking terrible.

MarqueeMark

rcs1000 said:

I think they introduce a new voting system for the European elections: FPTR

This is "First Past the Rennard", and would consist of a series of challenges where would be female MEPs have to get past Lord Rennard, who would be blocking a narrow corridor.

I think would significantly increase voter engagement and be generally good for British politics.

All happening to a soundtrack of the Benny Hill music....

isam

Scott_P said:

isam said:

No need to have an argument about the bet as well as the debates!

You are the one who wanted to bet. All this talk of cojones. I don't feel the need to whip out my wad to prove how much I believe what I post.

Farage will not appear. Others are free to disagree and post their thoughts.

I don't denigrate anyone who doesn't feel the need to cry "I bet you" in the manner of schoolchildren.

You are entitled to your opinions.

Now, I really think we have bored people enough with this.

You win. Happy now?

I don't mind if you don't want to bet, I just found it strange that you tried to make a perfectly simple bet seem incredibly complex in order to not to bet, rather than say you didn't fancy betting in the first place

gnorn

STV for all I say.

edmundintokyo

TGOHF said:

Nevermind who your MEP is - what do MEPs do ?

And if they vote for something can the commission veto it ?

Total waste of money.

What does the carburetter on a car do? Knowing very little about cars I have no idea. Carburetters, what a total waste of money.

NickPalmer

DavidL said:

Not only could the vast majority of us not name one of our MEPs, we have absolutely no idea about what their position was on anything they may have voted on, how often they actually turned up, whether they ever spoke on anything, whether their expense claims were merely ridiculous or truly outrageous etc etc. In short we have no basis upon which to exercise a personal vote for this absurd Parliament.

But all these things are also true for most people of their MPs - should we abolish the Westminster Parliament? As David agreed when we discussed it the other day, the issue is that MEPs aren't reported in the media, so most people have difficulty in forming an opinion even if they want to - though if David or anyone really wanted to make the effort they could (by reading the debates online or subscribing to the various free newsletters that do report on it). Replacing the Parliament by something else won't affect that - the media won't bother to report on the something else either.

I've just come back from a day of meetings in Strasbourg about my day job issue (animal tests) with the Conservatives, Labour, Liberals, Christian Democrats, Communists, Greens and Plaid (the UKIP-linked EFD responded in detail by email instead). In each case the MEPs were thoroughly engaged, asked detailed questions, discussed how the legislation could be amended, asked about next steps and generally went well beyond the Westminster norm. It's grossly unfair to ALL the parties to represent them as lazy expense-grubbers doing obscure things or nothing, when the real issue is that a) the media don't report it and (b) people who want to take a view anyway don't bother to look into it themselves.

There is quite obviously a problem, and to a significant extent in applies to Westminster too. But it's not related to the actual work done or the electoral system. It's that reporting of politics in the British media (far more than elsewhere) is by and large sensationalist, trivial crap. (And the press is even proud of it - there was a long piece by Greenslade in the Standard yesterday saying how superior the Brits are because they wanted to discuss Hollande's sex life whiile the French journalists wanted to discuss the economy.)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Tokyo, sounds like carburetters were seen as unnecessary and phased out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carburettor#History_and_development

TGOHF

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tokyo, sounds like carburetters were seen as unnecessary and phased out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carburettor#History_and_development

Chortle - if it is any consolation to Mr Tokyo they are still used in some lawn mower engines.

Lawn mowers are cheaper than MEPs and more useful.

Scrapheap_as_was

Clearly Monsieur Hollande did not cut too far and too fast initially?

Mr. Hollande detailed his pact at a marathon press conference on Tuesday. He pledged to cut red tape for companies and relieve them of EUR30 billion to EUR35 billion ($40 billion - $47 billion) of family welfare taxes. The measures--which still need to fleshed out with unions and business--would be funded solely by spending cuts, rather than tax increases, Mr. Hollande said.

http://uk.advfn.com/news/DJN/2014/article/60684453

edmundintokyo

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tokyo, sounds like carburetters were seen as unnecessary and phased out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carburettor#History_and_development

Nice catch. The European Parliament has been very effective at blocking dodgy corporate-sponsored IP laws dressed up as trade deals, but I reckon there may be a way to do that with a fuel injection system,

OldKingCole

GeoffM said:

OldKingCole said:

I've long been frustrated that I cannot vote for the "local" long-serving and hardworking Labour MEP Richard Howitt, but for the LD list. AMS, as in Scotland or Wales would enable me to do this.

So you're advocating the voting system which best fits your exact and current preference of who you'd like to vote for and how?

Cheers for that. I'm going to push for the YouCanOnlyVoteGeoff system which, based on the same intellectual rigour as your logic, is a great step forward.

No, I'm saying that I have a great admiration for the work that Howitt does. However, as I would like to vote for a party which has a genuine and long-standing commitment to developing the EU idea, I would like to see LD MEP's in the Eastern Region. And at the moment the system only allows me to vote for one or the other.
I'll concede quick early contributing (before first coffee had had time to work) caused me to express myself badly, but I suggest that, before accusing others of lacking intellectual rigour, you take the trouble to inform yourself about AMS.

state_go_away

Interesting poll in that its at odds with the bookies tissue prices - UKIP are favourites with the bookies (and on betfair)

RodCrosby

It's hardly a 'complex system'.

D'Hondt with constituencies was chosen, no doubt, because it is the variant of PR closest to FPTP.

Favours large parties (just like FPTP)
Closed lists (just like FPTP)

Last time its Disproportionality (LHI) was a large 17.8%, a figure typically seen under FPTP...

(And btw, it's biased to Labour.... just like FPTP.)

STV would be a better system, or Sainte-Laguë, or some variant of the Danish system (open lists and national proportionality).

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

Least surprising story of the day

Alex Salmond’s plan for an independent Scotland to continue to charge English students tuition fees is illegal, a former European Commissioner for Education has declared.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10575630/Alex-Salmond-tuition-fees-pledge-illegal.html

Yes it will be sure to be true, must be about the millionth idiot to say Salmond wrong ..... and all have been proved to be idiots. Pass me that UK debt please Salmond is wrong , it is illegal and Scotland owe a fortune.

state_go_away

NickPalmer said:

DavidL said:

Not only could the vast majority of us not name one of our MEPs, we have absolutely no idea about what their position was on anything they may have voted on, how often they actually turned up, whether they ever spoke on anything, whether their expense claims were merely ridiculous or truly outrageous etc etc. In short we have no basis upon which to exercise a personal vote for this absurd Parliament.

But all these things are also true for most people of their MPs - should we abolish the Westminster Parliament? As David agreed when we discussed it the other day, the issue is that MEPs aren't reported in the media, so most people have difficulty in forming an opinion even if they want to - though if David or anyone really wanted to make the effort they could (by reading the debates online or subscribing to the various free newsletters that do report on it). Replacing the Parliament by something else won't affect that - the media won't bother to report on the something else either.

I've just come back from a day of meetings in Strasbourg about my day job issue (animal tests) with the Conservatives, Labour, Liberals, Christian Democrats, Communists, Greens and Plaid (the UKIP-linked EFD responded in detail by email instead). In each case the MEPs were thoroughly engaged, asked detailed questions, discussed how the legislation could be amended, asked about next steps and generally went well beyond the Westminster norm. It's grossly unfair to ALL the parties to represent them as lazy expense-grubbers doing obscure things or nothing, when the real issue is that a) the media don't report it and (b) people who want to take a view anyway don't bother to look into it themselves.

There is quite obviously a problem, and to a significant extent in applies to Westminster too. But it's not related to the actual work done or the electoral system. It's that reporting of politics in the British media (far more than elsewhere) is by and large sensationalist, trivial crap. (And the press is even proud of it - there was a long piece by Greenslade in the Standard yesterday saying how superior the Brits are because they wanted to discuss Hollande's sex life whiile the French journalists wanted to discuss the economy.)

I think that's a bit unfair on british journalists - when you say that the Brits like the sex story and the French like the worthy economy bit you are not comparing like for like - The French should be interested in the French economy more than the British yet a sex scandal translates more internationally

CarlottaVance

Oh well.....that's the Rennard story gone away........

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/16/lib-dems-accused-secret-justice-lord-rennard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10574316/Lord-Rennard-will-not-apologise-to-female-Lib-Dems-adviser-says.html

http://www.channel4.com/news/lib-dems-lord-rennard-disciplinary-hearing-nick-clegg

Innocent_Abroad

edmundintokyo said:

TGOHF said:

Nevermind who your MEP is - what do MEPs do ?

And if they vote for something can the commission veto it ?

Total waste of money.

What does the carburetter on a car do? Knowing very little about cars I have no idea. Carburetters, what a total waste of money.

It burettors, Edmund. Even in Tokyo.

state_go_away

As for the type of election to go for for the euros , then I would think that as you are not choosing a government in these elections it should be about having the most popular individual representing a region or county in Europe - I shall therefore whisper my suggestion -err shall we just go back to FPTP ?

TGOHF

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Least surprising story of the day

Alex Salmond’s plan for an independent Scotland to continue to charge English students tuition fees is illegal, a former European Commissioner for Education has declared.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10575630/Alex-Salmond-tuition-fees-pledge-illegal.html

Yes it will be sure to be true, must be about the millionth idiot to say Salmond wrong ..... and all have been proved to be idiots. Pass me that UK debt please Salmond is wrong , it is illegal and Scotland owe a fortune.

I'm sure once Salmond publishes the legal advice on this it will clear the matter up..

RodCrosby

state_go_away said:

I shall therefore whisper my suggestion -err shall we just go back to FPTP ?

Europe wouldn't wear that. It was the reason we changed to "PR" in the first place...

Pulpstar

Betting post:

I repeat again:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1313367

Labour to poll fewer votes and win more seats than Conservatives

8-1.

Financier

CarlottaVance said:

Oh well.....that's the Rennard story gone away........

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/16/lib-dems-accused-secret-justice-lord-rennard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10574316/Lord-Rennard-will-not-apologise-to-female-Lib-Dems-adviser-says.html

http://www.channel4.com/news/lib-dems-lord-rennard-disciplinary-hearing-nick-clegg

and another:

"A senior Welsh Lib Dem has accused her party of "opting for cowardice" over the allegations that Lord Rennard sexually harassed women.

Alison Goldsworthy, deputy chair of the party's federal executive, said last year she was one of a number of women who claimed to have been harassed."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25752815

Lennon

On-Topic - Clearly (as with most people) I agree with Mike on this - it is shocking voting system. Can someone enlighten me though - how come the Northern Irish are so enlightened when it comes to voting systems? It's not like they are particularly enlightened when it comes to anything else (with apologies to Neil of course)

RichardNabavi

Pulpstar said:

Betting post:

I repeat again:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1313367

Labour to poll fewer votes and win more seats than Conservatives

8-1.

Good call. Unfortunately only a derisory max stake..

state_go_away

Financier said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh well.....that's the Rennard story gone away........

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/16/lib-dems-accused-secret-justice-lord-rennard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10574316/Lord-Rennard-will-not-apologise-to-female-Lib-Dems-adviser-says.html

http://www.channel4.com/news/lib-dems-lord-rennard-disciplinary-hearing-nick-clegg

and another:

"A senior Welsh Lib Dem has accused her party of "opting for cowardice" over the allegations that Lord Rennard sexually harassed women.

Alison Goldsworthy, deputy chair of the party's federal executive, said last year she was one of a number of women who claimed to have been harassed."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25752815

I haven't followed the story that closely but what are the Lid Dems supposed to do that they haven't done already? If the police do not think there is enough evidence for criminal charges why do people think the lib dems should act as a second court beyond obviously removing him from a position of influence (which they have done as far as I can see)

Pulpstar

RichardNabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Betting post:

I repeat again:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1313367

Labour to poll fewer votes and win more seats than Conservatives

8-1.

Good call. Unfortunately only a derisory max stake..

Yep - I got on at 7/4 - which in hindsight wasn't the best bet. Anyway best thing to do in that situation when the odds go up (And the underlying odds haven't changed) is to keep digging.

Averages me up to 5.9 on the bet.


Paddy limited me to £9.97 btw - You get any more on ?

AlastairMeeks

state_go_away said:

Interesting poll in that its at odds with the bookies tissue prices - UKIP are favourites with the bookies (and on betfair)

Labour often underperform at the EU elections and Ed Miliband's leadership has been characterised by a failure to date to get the Labour vote out in real elections to the extent predicted by the polls. But Labour might be worth a flutter at 6/4 for most votes.

RodCrosby

Lennon said:

On-Topic - Clearly (as with most people) I agree with Mike on this - it is shocking voting system. Can someone enlighten me though - how come the Northern Irish are so enlightened when it comes to voting systems? It's not like they are particularly enlightened when it comes to anything else (with apologies to Neil of course)

Basically, back in the 70s, Callaghan was forced to drop the idea of FPTP for NI, when it was shown that the nationalist community would not be able to elect a Euro MEP...

STV was chosen for those three seats (it had a history of use for other elections there).

They've kept it ever since, even when the rest of the UK switched to D'Hondt.

Carnyx

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Least surprising story of the day

Alex Salmond’s plan for an independent Scotland to continue to charge English students tuition fees is illegal, a former European Commissioner for Education has declared.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10575630/Alex-Salmond-tuition-fees-pledge-illegal.html

Yes it will be sure to be true, must be about the millionth idiot to say Salmond wrong ..... and all have been proved to be idiots. Pass me that UK debt please Salmond is wrong , it is illegal and Scotland owe a fortune.

I'm sure once Salmond publishes the legal advice on this it will clear the matter up..

I don't see the point of wasting any time on this (and not forgetting it is perfectly legal at the moment as it was London not Salmond, or maybe it was the badgers, who moved the goalposts).

All this gloating about robbing the Scots of their money (and using it as an excuse for an utterly shameful policy south of the border IMO) assumes that both Scotland and England will be in the EU in a few years' time (the time it will take for anything to go to the courts). Spot any problem with that, in view of what the same people in the same No campaign have been telling us ad nauseam about Scotland and the EU, with all the accuracy, discrimination, restraint and quality control of the farmer's muckspreader tractor on the field on the hill above my house?!?

Or for that matter aout EWNI and the EU?!

They can't even get their propaganda consistent, for heaven's sake. And that is very dangerous for them, because once the lies become inconsistent, they become incredible.

MrJones

The EU was designed from the start to be anti-democratic with all the power in the hands of unelected commissioners so obviously the turnout for the pretend parliament is going to be low.

lower power ~ lower turnout

The EU is a soviet system where the national elections decide who gets to send / appoint delegates to the meetings of the central soviet.

Pulpstar

On the Euros I've made a bit of a hash of my book, but I think the value is now to either back Labour at 6-4, or if more liquidity comes into the betfair market to lay UKIP at odds on.

Obviously the night before if Lib Dems are anything under 200-1 on the exchanges and you have the float for it you can quickly get a 0.5% relatively risk free return on your cash.

SouthamObserver

The European parliament has the right to veto and amend all proposed EU legislation, but doesn't have the right to propose its own legislation. Is that right?

MrJones

Just a guess but i reckon if the crime stats had any connection to reality at all - which they don't - they'd show that crime *decreased* in areas where there was a decrease in the number of young men aged 14-24 and crime dramatically *increased* in areas where there was a dramatic increase in the numbers of young men aged 14-24.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

RichardNabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Betting post:

I repeat again:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1313367

Labour to poll fewer votes and win more seats than Conservatives

8-1.

Good call. Unfortunately only a derisory max stake..

Yep - I got on at 7/4 - which in hindsight wasn't the best bet. Anyway best thing to do in that situation when the odds go up (And the underlying odds haven't changed) is to keep digging.

Averages me up to 5.9 on the bet.


Paddy limited me to £9.97 btw - You get any more on ?

If you can visit a Paddy Power shop, they will let you put up to £45 on it.

MrJones

Pulpstar said:

On the Euros I've made a bit of a hash of my book, but I think the value is now to either back Labour at 6-4, or if more liquidity comes into the betfair market to lay UKIP at odds on.

Obviously the night before if Lib Dems are anything under 200-1 on the exchanges and you have the float for it you can quickly get a 0.5% relatively risk free return on your cash.

If it's Lab vs Ukip you don't think Con voters might switch - although now i think of it some of them might switch to Lab so Ukip didn't win.

SouthamObserver

@ MrJones - "The EU was designed from the start to be anti-democratic with all the power in the hands of unelected commissioners so obviously the turnout for the pretend parliament is going to be low."

Most of the Commissioners have very little "power", as such. They can suggest and propose, but nothing gets through without the say-so of the member states and the Parliament. The one exception that I can think of is the Competition DG, which is immensely (and in many cases that I follow damagingly) powerful. What all the Commissioners do have, though, is control over the budgets that the member states and the Parliament allocate to them. The problem here is that because everyone in Brussels is so comfy, cosy and shielded from direct scrutiny, there is no real accountability: the various DGs are essentially left to get on with it and patronage becomes a very effective means of wielding soft power.

TheScreamingEagles

From last night,

Betting post.

Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.

I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.

If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?

Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.

not_on_fire

And how many people know who their MP is (or even what party they belong to) in the average constituency? Probably more than 5%, but I bet it's less than 20% in consituencies that aren't represented by a high-profile MP

RodCrosby

not_on_fire said:

And how many people know who their MP is (or even what party they belong to) in the average constituency? Probably more than 5%, but I bet it's less than 20% in consituencies that aren't represented by a high-profile MP

Hansard Society (2013) found just 22% overall.

The 'constituency-link' only exists in the bumptious imaginations of MPs...

edmundintokyo

SouthamObserver said:

The European parliament has the right to veto and amend all proposed EU legislation, but doesn't have the right to propose its own legislation. Is that right?

Correct, although in these elections you're probably (＊) also electing the head of the Commission, which does propose legislation, although obviously there's no point in them proposing things if the member states aren't on board.

* Subject to a grand forthcoming inter-institutional bunfight

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

From last night,

Betting post.

Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.

I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.

If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?

Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.

Surely the Lib Dems are expecting a wipe out, or at the most ~ 3 MEPs ?

RodCrosby

Pulpstar said:

Surely the Lib Dems are expecting a wipe out, or at the most ~ 3 MEPs ?

It's possible.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From last night,

Betting post.

Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.

I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.

If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?

Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.

Surely the Lib Dems are expecting a wipe out, or at the most ~ 3 MEPs ?

I think it will be the psychological impact of having zero or maybe 1 MEPs that will focus the minds of the Lib Dems.

The media might say it's a harbinger for 2015

AndyJS

I think this survey probably means UKIP will top the Euro election in May. The polls in Jan/Feb 2009 had UKIP way below the 16.5% they eventually polled IIRC.

SouthamObserver

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

The European parliament has the right to veto and amend all proposed EU legislation, but doesn't have the right to propose its own legislation. Is that right?

Correct, although in these elections you're probably (＊) also electing the head of the Commission, which does propose legislation, although obviously there's no point in them proposing things if the member states aren't on board.

* Subject to a grand forthcoming inter-institutional bunfight

The real power in the EU seems to lie with the Council of Ministers. And within the Council the biggest states are the most powerful, or have the potential to be if they can build blocs of support. The bottom line is that if France, Germany and the UK all want something to happen then it will happen; and if two of the three want something to happen and the other does not mind that much either way, the chances are that it will happen. The problems really begin when two want it and the other doesn't. What the UK has been bad at for a very long time is playing this game effectively. Whether it should be a game is, of course, a different matter entirely.

Pulpstar

I mean surely they are expecting a crap result, so when said crap result comes in Clegg is saf(ish) ?

MrJones

edmundintokyo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tokyo, sounds like carburetters were seen as unnecessary and phased out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carburettor#History_and_development

Nice catch. The European Parliament has been very effective at blocking dodgy corporate-sponsored IP laws dressed up as trade deals, but I reckon there may be a way to do that with a fuel injection system,

Or possibly the other way round?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carburettor#History_and_development

"This change was dictated more by the requirements of catalytic converters than by any inherent inefficiency of carburation"

I remember reading at the time some people thought lean-burn engines were a better option but it seems the lobbyists for catalytic converters won.

Socrates

I see a couple have been fined for taking their child out of school for a couple of weeks:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-25733272

I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...

tpfkar

TheScreamingEagles said:

From last night,

Betting post.

Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.

I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.

If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?

Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.

You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)

Pulpstar

It's not a 4-1 I'm going to take personally like tpfkar says - At 20s I might be tempted, but not 4s.

But Clegg had better watch out with TSE's tipping record recently !

TheScreamingEagles

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From last night,

Betting post.

Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.

I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.

If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?

Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.

You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)

I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.

The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.

MrJones

not_on_fire said:

And how many people know who their MP is (or even what party they belong to) in the average constituency? Probably more than 5%, but I bet it's less than 20% in consituencies that aren't represented by a high-profile MP

How many people who've recently had a problem suitable for an MP know who their local MP is?

AndyJS

Socrates said:

I see a couple have been fined for taking their child out of school for a couple of weeks:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-25733272

I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...

Especially when it's sometimes used to subject them to practices such as forced marriage and FGM (which is not so much a south Asian problem).

Pulpstar

Socrates said:

I see a couple have been fined for taking their child out of school for a couple of weeks:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-25733272

I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...

Any evidence of south asian kids missing the start of term ?

Just fact checking - cheers.

isam

AndyJS said:

I think this survey probably means UKIP will top the Euro election in May. The polls in Jan/Feb 2009 had UKIP way below the 16.5% they eventually polled IIRC.

it could be a first...

The first time Ukip failed to beat expectations when compared to opinion polls and opening prices of betting markets

Socrates

Pulpstar said:

Socrates said:

I see a couple have been fined for taking their child out of school for a couple of weeks:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-25733272

I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...

Any evidence of south asian kids missing the start of term ?

Just fact checking - cheers.

Education Bradford aims to cut the number of authorised absences to just one per cent but last term the actual figure was over three times higher.

Many absences from school are attributable to truancy, as well as Asian parents taking children on lengthy holidays to visit relatives abroad.

http://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/calderdale/improve-education-of-pakistanis-1-2456857

This is well known in education: ask any teacher who works in an area with large numbers of Asians.

AndyJS

Less than 3,000 signatures to go for Leyla Hussein's anti-FGM epetition:

http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/52740

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From last night,

Betting post.

Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.

I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.

If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?

Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.

You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)

I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.

The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.

I'm with tpfkar. The value is with the 1/5 on Nick Clegg. I'd prefer to put money on the 10/1 that David Cameron will step down as Prime Minister in 2014. (I wouldn't place this bet either).

tpfkar

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From last night,

Betting post.

Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.

I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.

If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?

Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.

You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)

I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.

The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.

Can I lay you some more at 4-1? My wife's shoe fund needs topping up.

Lennon

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From last night,

Betting post.

Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.

I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.

If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?

Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.

You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)

I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.

The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.

In which case they should be focused much more on the Local election results the same time - the Libs always say that they are losing votes where it doesn't matter in terms of GE, but in places where they are contesting, they are not. The Local results will be much more useful as a pointer in that regard in my opinion.

Pulpstar

"Mr Barraclough said a consultation exercise was under way involving the community, to set guidance on extended leave."

vs

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-25733272

This is precisely why UKIP is rising in the polls. Left wing PC bollocks.

MrJones

SouthamObserver said:

@ MrJones - "The EU was designed from the start to be anti-democratic with all the power in the hands of unelected commissioners so obviously the turnout for the pretend parliament is going to be low."

Most of the Commissioners have very little "power", as such. They can suggest and propose, but nothing gets through without the say-so of the member states and the Parliament. The one exception that I can think of is the Competition DG, which is immensely (and in many cases that I follow damagingly) powerful. What all the Commissioners do have, though, is control over the budgets that the member states and the Parliament allocate to them. The problem here is that because everyone in Brussels is so comfy, cosy and shielded from direct scrutiny, there is no real accountability: the various DGs are essentially left to get on with it and patronage becomes a very effective means of wielding soft power.

I don't agree with the EU obviously but if i did I'd probably think that given the size of it a soviet style delegate system was the only practical way to do things (hence why i disagree with the EU) but in that case it should be made explicit and not have the pretend parliament at all as it's just there for spin and if people knew that all the national election was, was electing delegates to the place where the real power lies then their voting might (would imo) change to reflect that.

On the other hand if it was made explicit that the EU is effectively a soviet system (edit: where national elections were just electing delegates) then people might (would imo) want to leave hence all the lying and spin.

AndyJS

I have a hunch the big story in May could be how well UKIP do in Labour areas when a lot of people are expecting them to surge in areas like the south-east and East Anglia.