I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...
Will they also be fining teachers that go on strike ?
Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.
I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.
If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?
Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.
You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)
I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.
The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.
I'm with tpfkar. The value is with the 1/5 on Nick Clegg. I'd prefer to put money on the 10/1 that David Cameron will step down as Prime Minister in 2014. (I wouldn't place this bet either).
I guess the other thing that will save Clegg is after the Euros, if the Tories finish third, the media's attention will be on Dave.
Alex Salmond’s plan for an independent Scotland to continue to charge English students tuition fees is illegal, a former European Commissioner for Education has declared.
Yes it will be sure to be true, must be about the millionth idiot to say Salmond wrong ..... and all have been proved to be idiots. Pass me that UK debt please Salmond is wrong , it is illegal and Scotland owe a fortune.
I'm sure once Salmond publishes the legal advice on this it will clear the matter up..
He can discuss it with the Governor of The Bank of England when they meet in January.
Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.
I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.
If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?
Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.
You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)
I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.
The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.
Can I lay you some more at 4-1? My wife's shoe fund needs topping up.
Antifrank has persuaded me on the futility of this bet.
Greater proportions of absences due to religious observance are reported by Pakistani, Bangladeshi, African, Indian and pupils of a Mixed White and Asian ethnic background compared to all other ethnic groups (11%, 8%, 6%, 3% and 2% respectively in 2009/10).
Chinese, Indian, Mixed White and Asian and British pupils have a notably greater proportion of their absences authorised due to family holidays compared to other ethnic groups (around 13% for Chinese pupils, 11% for Indian pupils and 7% for both Mixed White and Asian and British pupils in 2009/10). Unauthorised family holidays make up a greater proportion of absences for Pakistani (5%), Indian and Bangladeshi pupils (4% each in 2009/10) than for other ethnic groups.
Interestingly those of Chinese descent are most guilty of this. I was less aware because they're much smaller as a segment of the population. Not quite sure what "Mixed White and Asian and British pupils" means in the second paragraph...
Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.
I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.
If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?
Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.
You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)
I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.
The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.
I'm with tpfkar. The value is with the 1/5 on Nick Clegg. I'd prefer to put money on the 10/1 that David Cameron will step down as Prime Minister in 2014. (I wouldn't place this bet either).
I guess the other thing that will save Clegg is after the Euros, if the Tories finish third, the media's attention will be on Dave.
Also remember that whilst both locals and Euros vote on the Thursday, the locals count immediately, but the Euros don't count until the Sunday. Hence the Media will be looking for a story on Friday/Saturday and will only have the locals to base it on, and then will look for a 'new' story on Monday following the Euro count... Not sure which way this plays, but worth bearing in mind.
I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...
Will they also be fining teachers that go on strike ?
We still have some workers' rights left in the UK.
I've decided to cancel my subscription to The Times, today's Brookes cartoon has deeply traumatised me, I'm not sure I'll ever recover, (this link makes the cartoon free to view, no paywall)
"The EU is overtaken by China as the world’s largest energy importing region in 2030, but it remains the largest net importer of natural gas. • Production of all fossil fuels decline in the EU, led by oil (-57%), followed by coal (-49%) and natural gas (-46%). • Renewables in power generation overtake nuclear as the dominant domestic energy source in 2023, and make up 37% of the EU’s energy production in 2035. • Imports of oil (-23%) and coal (-49%) will decline but imports of gas rise by 49%. The EU’s gas import dependency rises from 66% to 84%. • The EU’s share of global renewables in power is set to decline from 40% today to 23% in 2035 as it loses its top position to China in 2031."
So it looks like the EU be even more reliant on Russia and Middle East for supplies of gas - what happened to energy security?
I would point out that BP totally failed to predict the shale boom in North America. (Back in 2007, they were forecasting US natural gas production would continue to fall. And in 2009, they thought US oil production would continue to decline.)
Also, I would point out that both Russian and the Middle East are going to be of diminishing importance as natural gas exporters. There are very few - if any - new LNG plants planned for the Middle East. And Russia - IIRC - has cancelled its Snow White LNG project.
On the other hand, Australia has massive amounts of new LNG exports coming on stream. Projects at FEED or beyond are equivilent to the entire current world LNG capacity. Furthermore, the US should start exporting LNG from Sabine Pass from 2015, and others in 2016 and 2017. Canada should be on-line by the end of the decade too. Early next decade, there should be massive amounts of LNG coming on stream from West Africa (Mozambique, Tanzania).
So, overall, Europe's dependence on Russia and the Middle East for natural gas (even making the assumption that shale gas does not happen) should decline markedly.
I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...
Will they also be fining teachers that go on strike ?
We still have some workers' rights left in the UK.
I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...
Will they also be fining teachers that go on strike ?
We still have some workers' rights left in the UK.
Workers do seem to have more rights than parents.
You think workers and parents are two discrete groups? Quaint.
I'm sure the authorities will be consistent and start fining all those families of South Asian origin that take their children out so they can have 2-3 months in the subcontinent over the summer...
Will they also be fining teachers that go on strike ?
We still have some workers' rights left in the UK.
Rights that take precedence over the child's right to education, apparently. I think it's fine to strike to protest over things like discrimination, dangerous working conditions, unfair sacking of a colleague etc., but I don't think it's fair that kids have to lose education days because teachers just want more money...
"The EU is overtaken by China as the world’s largest energy importing region in 2030, but it remains the largest net importer of natural gas. • Production of all fossil fuels decline in the EU, led by oil (-57%), followed by coal (-49%) and natural gas (-46%). • Renewables in power generation overtake nuclear as the dominant domestic energy source in 2023, and make up 37% of the EU’s energy production in 2035. • Imports of oil (-23%) and coal (-49%) will decline but imports of gas rise by 49%. The EU’s gas import dependency rises from 66% to 84%. • The EU’s share of global renewables in power is set to decline from 40% today to 23% in 2035 as it loses its top position to China in 2031."
So it looks like the EU be even more reliant on Russia and Middle East for supplies of gas - what happened to energy security?
I would point out that BP totally failed to predict the shale boom in North America. (Back in 2007, they were forecasting US natural gas production would continue to fall. And in 2009, they thought US oil production would continue to decline.)
Also, I would point out that both Russian and the Middle East are going to be of diminishing importance as natural gas exporters. There are very few - if any - new LNG plants planned for the Middle East. And Russia - IIRC - has cancelled its Snow White LNG project.
On the other hand, Australia has massive amounts of new LNG exports coming on stream. Projects at FEED or beyond are equivilent to the entire current world LNG capacity. Furthermore, the US should start exporting LNG from Sabine Pass from 2015, and others in 2016 and 2017. Canada should be on-line by the end of the decade too. Early next decade, there should be massive amounts of LNG coming on stream from West Africa (Mozambique, Tanzania).
So, overall, Europe's dependence on Russia and the Middle East for natural gas (even making the assumption that shale gas does not happen) should decline markedly.
LNG is the expensive form of gas. The imports to the bulk of the EU are going to be through pipelines, mainly from Russia, but also through Turkey and the Eastern Med...
Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.
I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.
If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?
Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.
You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)
I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.
The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.
Can I lay you some more at 4-1? My wife's shoe fund needs topping up.
Antifrank has persuaded me on the futility of this bet.
Wise move I think. The other factor is that if Nick Clegg fell under a bus, I don't think Tim Farron would want to take over before 2015 as he has no ministerial experience and would be blamed for the 2015 result. In that case, we'd be looking at a current cabinet minister as 'caretaker' till 2015.
Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.
I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.
If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?
Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.
You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)
I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.
The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.
Can I lay you some more at 4-1? My wife's shoe fund needs topping up.
Antifrank has persuaded me on the futility of this bet.
Wise move I think. The other factor is that if Nick Clegg fell under a bus, I don't think Tim Farron would want to take over before 2015 as he has no ministerial experience and would be blamed for the 2015 result. In that case, we'd be looking at a current cabinet minister as 'caretaker' till 2015.
Realistically in that scenario I would have thought Vince Cable as the 'Senior' Lib Dem with a Cabinet seat. Dave might not like it though...
Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.
I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.
If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?
Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this? This could be the Lib Dem Zama.
You're wasting your money. I wouldn't take less than 15-1. The party strategy is all set around achievements in Government, Nick's given no indications he would stand down before, and there is none of the internal muttering you need for a putsch (the rules involve 75 local parties passing no confidence votes or an MPs revolt - very high threshold.)
I understand that, but it is the MPs that will determine this, a bit like when Charles Kennedy and Sir Menzies were deposed.
The prospect of losing your seat will focus minds.
Can I lay you some more at 4-1? My wife's shoe fund needs topping up.
Antifrank has persuaded me on the futility of this bet.
Wise move I think. The other factor is that if Nick Clegg fell under a bus, I don't think Tim Farron would want to take over before 2015 as he has no ministerial experience and would be blamed for the 2015 result. In that case, we'd be looking at a current cabinet minister as 'caretaker' till 2015.
My preferred choice would be Vince Cable, I backed him at 16/1 a while back.
The justice system is totally corrupt IMO when crimes from 50 years ago are zealously pursued but offences from the present time are ignored completely:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 48m YouGov:UKIP just 2% behind LAB amongst those certain to vote in May's EU elections LAB, 32 UKIP, 30 CON, 21 LD, 6 GRN, 5 NAT, 4
Greater proportions of absences due to religious observance are reported by Pakistani, Bangladeshi, African, Indian and pupils of a Mixed White and Asian ethnic background compared to all other ethnic groups (11%, 8%, 6%, 3% and 2% respectively in 2009/10).
Chinese, Indian, Mixed White and Asian and British pupils have a notably greater proportion of their absences authorised due to family holidays compared to other ethnic groups (around 13% for Chinese pupils, 11% for Indian pupils and 7% for both Mixed White and Asian and British pupils in 2009/10). Unauthorised family holidays make up a greater proportion of absences for Pakistani (5%), Indian and Bangladeshi pupils (4% each in 2009/10) than for other ethnic groups.
Interestingly those of Chinese descent are most guilty of this. I was less aware because they're much smaller as a segment of the population. Not quite sure what "Mixed White and Asian and British pupils" means in the second paragraph...
The bloke in Telford, who seems to have created much of this problem for himself, was done under new legislation. The stats above relate to a time when it did not apply. The government should make clear to all local authorities and schools that it expects the current law to be applied; and it should provide examples that relate to this application so there can be no room for doubt. All parents should get authorisation to take their kids out of school. Sometimes this may be for family visits. An extended trip to visit family - that because of cost is likely to be a once every few years event - may well be deemed reasonable if done at a time when the kids concerned may not be too adversely effected by being out of school. If it is done without authorisation, though, there should be severe consequences.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 48m YouGov:UKIP just 2% behind LAB amongst those certain to vote in May's EU elections LAB, 32 UKIP, 30 CON, 21 LD, 6 GRN, 5 NAT, 4
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 48m YouGov:UKIP just 2% behind LAB amongst those certain to vote in May's EU elections LAB, 32 UKIP, 30 CON, 21 LD, 6 GRN, 5 NAT, 4
UNS would give seats
LAB, 29 UKIP, 24 CON, 13 LD, 0 GRN, 1 NAT, 3
Any chance of the seat changes as well? (Save me looking them up)
re school AWOL in term time , you obviously can take the mick but in the Telford case it seems this was a one off holiday with no other absences (wasn't it their first holiday in 5 yrs according to the press?) It was also booked before the more stringent guidelines were issued so it does seem ridiculously harsh . to those people who support both the teachers right to strike and this zero tolerance AWOL policy you cannot have it both ways in believing that the child is missing valuable and irreplaceable education if the parent takes them from school but think its not to serious for the child if the teacher effectively keeps them from school by striking
"The EU is overtaken by China as the world’s largest energy importing region in 2030, but it remains the largest net importer of natural gas. • Production of all fossil fuels decline in the EU, led by oil (-57%), followed by coal (-49%) and natural gas (-46%). • Renewables in power generation overtake nuclear as the dominant domestic energy source in 2023, and make up 37% of the EU’s energy production in 2035. • Imports of oil (-23%) and coal (-49%) will decline but imports of gas rise by 49%. The EU’s gas import dependency rises from 66% to 84%. • The EU’s share of global renewables in power is set to decline from 40% today to 23% in 2035 as it loses its top position to China in 2031."
So it looks like the EU be even more reliant on Russia and Middle East for supplies of gas - what happened to energy security?
I would point out that BP totally failed to predict the shale boom in North America. (Back in 2007, they were forecasting US natural gas production would continue to fall. And in 2009, they thought US oil production would continue to decline.)
Also, I would point out that both Russian and the Middle East are going to be of diminishing importance as natural gas exporters. There are very few - if any - new LNG plants planned for the Middle East. And Russia - IIRC - has cancelled its Snow White LNG project.
On the other hand, Australia has massive amounts of new LNG exports coming on stream. Projects at FEED or beyond are equivilent to the entire current world LNG capacity. Furthermore, the US should start exporting LNG from Sabine Pass from 2015, and others in 2016 and 2017. Canada should be on-line by the end of the decade too. Early next decade, there should be massive amounts of LNG coming on stream from West Africa (Mozambique, Tanzania).
So, overall, Europe's dependence on Russia and the Middle East for natural gas (even making the assumption that shale gas does not happen) should decline markedly.
LNG is the expensive form of gas. The imports to the bulk of the EU are going to be through pipelines, mainly from Russia, but also through Turkey and the Eastern Med...
Yes, that's true. Piped gas is currently about $10-12/mcf, against $15 for LNG
However, given the amount of LNG coming on stream in the next few years (PNG LNG, Gorgon, Wheastone, Sabine Pass, etc. etc.) I wouldn't be surprised to see the gap narrow.
Interesting, also the mention that the Standard is making money and not for sale. IMO it's become markedly more neutral and a bit less in love with Boris than it used to be - they are quite scrupulous about publishing pro-Labour, pro-Tory, and pro-LibDem pieces on different days, and their editorials are more like a typical regional paper, which pushes local interests without embracing any particular party. They are strongly pro-immigration, which is perhaps one reason for the shift,and they don't give UKIP much of a look-in.
Interesting, also the mention that the Standard is making money and not for sale. IMO it's become markedly more neutral
It's become unreadable. Well, I exaggerate, I'll pick it up if I see it on the tube or a bus but it is so much worse than it used to be. We get what we pay for I suppose.
Interesting, also the mention that the Standard is making money and not for sale. IMO it's become markedly more neutral
It's become unreadable. Well, I exaggerate, I'll pick it up if I see it on the tube or a bus but it is so much worse than it used to be. We get what we pay for I suppose.
Yes its obviously a successful business model to do it for free but I cannot understand the mentality of people who will happily read a (poor) free newspaper but not pay 50p (last price I think for it before it went free) to read a far better quality paper
re school AWOL in term time , you obviously can take the mick but in the Telford case it seems this was a one off holiday with no other absences (wasn't it their first holiday in 5 yrs according to the press?) It was also booked before the more stringent guidelines were issued so it does seem ridiculously harsh . to those people who support both the teachers right to strike and this zero tolerance AWOL policy you cannot have it both ways in believing that the child is missing valuable and irreplaceable education if the parent takes them from school but think its not to serious for the child if the teacher effectively keeps them from school by striking
Is there not a wheeze where teachers don't actually strike but just refuse to confirm whether they will attend on a strike day.
The head has to close the school at which point the teachers turn up and get a days pay.
Changes on last election, using the certain to vote figures
Con -7 Lab +16 UKIP +13 LD -8
What's going on there then? Are a load of Labs and Kippers saying they're going to vote this time who didn't last time, or have I mangled the figures or missing something obvious?
No, the figures are correct.
Other parties, including BNP, got a very high share collectively last time.
re school AWOL in term time , you obviously can take the mick but in the Telford case it seems this was a one off holiday with no other absences (wasn't it their first holiday in 5 yrs according to the press?) It was also booked before the more stringent guidelines were issued so it does seem ridiculously harsh . to those people who support both the teachers right to strike and this zero tolerance AWOL policy you cannot have it both ways in believing that the child is missing valuable and irreplaceable education if the parent takes them from school but think its not to serious for the child if the teacher effectively keeps them from school by striking
Is there not a wheeze where teachers don't actually strike but just refuse to confirm whether they will attend on a strike day.
The head has to close the school at which point the teachers turn up and get a days pay.
I don't know but if there is such a wheeze that is just dishonest and unprofessional -its also probably a sackable offence in that you need to confirm your availability unless for a lawful reason like illness or an official strike
re school AWOL in term time , you obviously can take the mick but in the Telford case it seems this was a one off holiday with no other absences (wasn't it their first holiday in 5 yrs according to the press?) It was also booked before the more stringent guidelines were issued so it does seem ridiculously harsh . to those people who support both the teachers right to strike and this zero tolerance AWOL policy you cannot have it both ways in believing that the child is missing valuable and irreplaceable education if the parent takes them from school but think its not to serious for the child if the teacher effectively keeps them from school by striking
Is there not a wheeze where teachers don't actually strike but just refuse to confirm whether they will attend on a strike day.
The head has to close the school at which point the teachers turn up and get a days pay.
I don't know but if there is such a wheeze that is just dishonest and unprofessional -its also probably a sackable offence in that you need to confirm your availability unless for a lawful reason like illness or an official strike
re school AWOL in term time , you obviously can take the mick but in the Telford case it seems this was a one off holiday with no other absences (wasn't it their first holiday in 5 yrs according to the press?) It was also booked before the more stringent guidelines were issued so it does seem ridiculously harsh . to those people who support both the teachers right to strike and this zero tolerance AWOL policy you cannot have it both ways in believing that the child is missing valuable and irreplaceable education if the parent takes them from school but think its not to serious for the child if the teacher effectively keeps them from school by striking
Is there not a wheeze where teachers don't actually strike but just refuse to confirm whether they will attend on a strike day.
The head has to close the school at which point the teachers turn up and get a days pay.
I don't know but if there is such a wheeze that is just dishonest and unprofessional -its also probably a sackable offence in that you need to confirm your availability unless for a lawful reason like illness or an official strike
this is for strike days.
yes but you should have to confirm beforehand if you are on strike or not . I certainly hope nobody does get paid for the day if they do this underhand and slimy thing (ie not supporting an official strike but not willing to work)
The real power in the EU seems to lie with the Council of Ministers. And within the Council the biggest states are the most powerful, or have the potential to be if they can build blocs of support. The bottom line is that if France, Germany and the UK all want something to happen then it will happen; and if two of the three want something to happen and the other does not mind that much either way, the chances are that it will happen. The problems really begin when two want it and the other doesn't. What the UK has been bad at for a very long time is playing this game effectively. Whether it should be a game is, of course, a different matter entirely.
That's largely right, I think, though the exception is if there's something that voters care about and can be engaged to write to MEPs about, directly or through NGOs. We (day job) got our ban on animal tests for cosmetics through because it was agreed in principle years ago (when it seemed a long way off) and voters deluged MEPs with demands on the issue (a million signatures) so we were able to get them to agree to block any last-minute rethink.I'm not sure that general political activists realise just how fired up and willing to lobby MEPs NGO supporters get on "their" issues.
On Mr Jones' point, I don't quite get his description of the EP as "soviet" because it is only representative. In what way does that differ from Westminster?
I think that's a bit unfair on british journalists - when you say that the Brits like the sex story and the French like the worthy economy bit you are not comparing like for like - The French should be interested in the French economy more than the British yet a sex scandal translates more internationally
Yeah, but if Osborne was found to be having an affair, do you think British journalists would ask him about the economy in his next press conference? Or that French journalists would care about his sex life? The British media are sex-obsessed and casual about economics, and they think the French media are weird for both the other way round.
It's supposed to be a PR election. So Joe Public must think the allsorts parties are worth a flutter in an election no-one really cares about anyhow...
They are sadly mistaken. Owing to the vagaries of D'Hondt, many of those votes last time were wasted, contributing to increased disproportionality in the overall result.
The real power in the EU seems to lie with the Council of Ministers. And within the Council the biggest states are the most powerful, or have the potential to be if they can build blocs of support. The bottom line is that if France, Germany and the UK all want something to happen then it will happen; and if two of the three want something to happen and the other does not mind that much either way, the chances are that it will happen. The problems really begin when two want it and the other doesn't. What the UK has been bad at for a very long time is playing this game effectively. Whether it should be a game is, of course, a different matter entirely.
That's largely right, I think, though the exception is if there's something that voters care about and can be engaged to write to MEPs about, directly or through NGOs. We (day job) got our ban on animal tests for cosmetics through because it was agreed in principle years ago (when it seemed a long way off) and voters deluged MEPs with demands on the issue (a million signatures) so we were able to get them to agree to block any last-minute rethink.I'm not sure that general political activists realise just how fired up and willing to lobby MEPs NGO supporters get on "their" issues.
On Mr Jones' point, I don't quite get his description of the EP as "soviet" because it is only representative. In what way does that differ from Westminster?
I think that's a bit unfair on british journalists - when you say that the Brits like the sex story and the French like the worthy economy bit you are not comparing like for like - The French should be interested in the French economy more than the British yet a sex scandal translates more internationally
Yeah, but if Osborne was found to be having an affair, do you think British journalists would ask him about the economy in his next press conference? Or that French journalists would care about his sex life? The British media are sex-obsessed and casual about economics, and they think the French media are weird for both the other way round.
Again not really like for like is it? Osborne is not the head of state . The obvious equivalent is the Queen . Are you suggesting the French would not be interested in an affair (of course you wouldn't Ma'am!!) by the Queen and instead want to ask her about commonwealth matters for instance?
I reckon UKIP could plausibly pick up nearly 10 percentage points just from the minor parties listed below.
5 points from BNP 1.5 points from EngDem 1 point from Christian 1 point from No2EU 1 point from JuryTeam / UKfirst / Libertas
Many of these will stand and (with the exception of the BNP who are in freefall) will do about as well as last time. The reasons for a Christian voter voting Christian rather than UKIP last time are likely to still apply this time.
It's supposed to be a PR election. So Joe Public must think the allsorts parties are worth a flutter in an election no-one really cares about anyhow...
They are sadly mistaken. Owing to the vagaries of D'Hondt, many of those votes last time were wasted, contributing to increased disproportionality in the overall result.
Indeed. Given that South-East is the largest (and so theoretically at least the most proportional) region with 10 seats - what is your estimate of the % required to gain the last seat? (I see last time it was the 2nd LD with 7% ish, but presumably under d'Hondt this is affected both by votes for parties below you (that then get effectively eliminated) and how far in front the leaders are? Thanks for the seat changes earlier as well btw.
I reckon UKIP could plausibly pick up nearly 10 percentage points just from the minor parties listed below.
5 points from BNP 1.5 points from EngDem 1 point from Christian 1 point from No2EU 1 point from JuryTeam / UKfirst / Libertas
Many of these will stand and (with the exception of the BNP who are in freefall) will do about as well as last time. The reasons for a Christian voter voting Christian rather than UKIP last time are likely to still apply this time.
I'd suggest the odds of an UNMARRIED French president having an affair were 'slightly' higher than the Queen. And our head of state has no economic governing function. Obviously if God Rest their soul WIll, Charles and Liz fell under a bus tommorow then it wouldn't really come to anyone's surprise if King Henry IX was off continuing the 'traditions' of the previous King Henry...
On Mr Jones' point, I don't quite get his description of the EP as "soviet" because it is only representative. In what way does that differ from Westminster?
I'm not using soviet as an insult in this sense just as a word for a system where you vote for delegates at one level and then those delegates vote for the delegates to the next level up who then vote for the delegates to the next level etc.
The difference is scale as scale determines the number of tiers.
I reckon UKIP could plausibly pick up nearly 10 percentage points just from the minor parties listed below.
5 points from BNP 1.5 points from EngDem 1 point from Christian 1 point from No2EU 1 point from JuryTeam / UKfirst / Libertas
Many of these will stand and (with the exception of the BNP who are in freefall) will do about as well as last time. The reasons for a Christian voter voting Christian rather than UKIP last time are likely to still apply this time.
That's why I only allocated 1.0 of 1.7 percentage points from Christian to UKIP.
The main point is that the BNP will almost certainly collapse to around 1-2%.
Alex Salmond’s plan for an independent Scotland to continue to charge English students tuition fees is illegal, a former European Commissioner for Education has declared.
Yes it will be sure to be true, must be about the millionth idiot to say Salmond wrong ..... and all have been proved to be idiots. Pass me that UK debt please Salmond is wrong , it is illegal and Scotland owe a fortune.
I'm sure once Salmond publishes the legal advice on this it will clear the matter up..
I don't see the point of wasting any time on this (and not forgetting it is perfectly legal at the moment as it was London not Salmond, or maybe it was the badgers, who moved the goalposts).
All this gloating about robbing the Scots of their money (and using it as an excuse for an utterly shameful policy south of the border IMO) assumes that both Scotland and England will be in the EU in a few years' time (the time it will take for anything to go to the courts). Spot any problem with that, in view of what the same people in the same No campaign have been telling us ad nauseam about Scotland and the EU, with all the accuracy, discrimination, restraint and quality control of the farmer's muckspreader tractor on the field on the hill above my house?!?
Or for that matter aout EWNI and the EU?!
They can't even get their propaganda consistent, for heaven's sake. And that is very dangerous for them, because once the lies become inconsistent, they become incredible.
Carnyx, They are now down to telling lies about their lies, Scott lets his blind hatred for the SNP get the better of him. If Alex Salmond knocked his door and handed him £1M he would claim it was an injustice.
O/T - I agree with Mike that these opinion polls should be taken with a pinch of salt. Does anyone really believe Labour will double their percentage share of the vote in 2014, compared to 2009?
Last time Labour even got to 28% was in 1999. True, they topped 44% in 1994, but that was twenty years ago - at the nadir of Major's government and under a different voting system.
Also, it might be worth being careful of these polls until the final fortnight. Most voters won't even be aware they're even on until May. In 2009, ICM polled Labour on 28% only one month out from the election - they ended up with 15.7%. There was a clear downward trend on their vote share throughout the month: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
Miliband and his EU/European policy (does anyone actually know what it is?) has come under very little scrutiny so far. He can't avoid that in May, and I doubt it'll be popular, so expect to see some movement.
I reckon UKIP could plausibly pick up nearly 10 percentage points just from the minor parties listed below.
5 points from BNP 1.5 points from EngDem 1 point from Christian 1 point from No2EU 1 point from JuryTeam / UKfirst / Libertas
Many of these will stand and (with the exception of the BNP who are in freefall) will do about as well as last time. The reasons for a Christian voter voting Christian rather than UKIP last time are likely to still apply this time.
That's why I only allocated 1.0 of 1.7 percentage points from Christian to UKIP.
The main point is that the BNP will almost certainly collapse to around 1-2%.
I think the biggest factor will be what will Con voters do if it looks like a two-horse race and if they start switching to Ukip so Ukip gets ahead then what will LD/Green voters do - switch Labour?.
On Mr Jones' point, I don't quite get his description of the EP as "soviet" because it is only representative. In what way does that differ from Westminster?
I'm not using soviet as an insult in this sense just as a word for a system where you vote for delegates at one level and then those delegates vote for the delegates to the next level up who then vote for the delegates to the next level etc.
The difference is scale as scale determines the number of tiers.
Again not really like for like is it? Osborne is not the head of state . The obvious equivalent is the Queen . Are you suggesting the French would not be interested in an affair (of course you wouldn't Ma'am!!) by the Queen and instead want to ask her about commonwealth matters for instance?
Presidents are both heads of State and de facto leaders of the government, and their press conferences are all about the latter - nobody asks if they've awarded any medals lately or done other non-political things like the Queen. Cameron is the more obvious comparison in reality, and again, if he was found in bed with a starlet, the British press would be riveted while the French would still care more about his economic policy.
Really, are you seriously disputing that our press is crap?
Indeed. Given that South-East is the largest (and so theoretically at least the most proportional) region with 10 seats - what is your estimate of the % required to gain the last seat? (I see last time it was the 2nd LD with 7% ish, but presumably under d'Hondt this is affected both by votes for parties below you (that then get effectively eliminated) and how far in front the leaders are? Thanks for the seat changes earlier as well btw.
The Threshold of Exclusion is 9.1% (minimum number to guarantee a seat).
However as you say the LDs got a second seat in 2009 with a quotient of 7.05%.
It all depends on the integer multiples of the LibDem vote obtained by the larger parties.
Basically if:-
the Sum of INT(partyi/LD) where partyi is the votes for a party larger than the LDs
is less than the total number of seats available (in the SE's case 10)
Don't know whether Mr Dancer has picked this up, but apparently Bernie Ecclestone WILL face trial in Germany, probably in April. Of course he's not quite as influential in F1 as he once was.
Ed Miliband has to have a significant success at the special conference. I expect the Conservatives are already preparing their soundbites in readiness for the great retreat on the unions, so he needs something to spike their guns.
"The Liberal Democrats are facing a "real uphill struggle" going into the European parliament elections in May, party leader Nick Clegg has said.
His comments came on the day a YouGov opinion poll for The Sun suggested that the Conservatives would come third if the European elections were held tomorrow, with 23% of the vote, compared with 26% for UKIP, 32% for Labour and 9% for the Lib Dems.
Mr Clegg criticised the accuracy of pollsters, who he said "make wildly different predictions almost none of which ever turn out to be the case"."
Still bitter from the failure of Cleggmania, I see.
"The Liberal Democrats are facing a "real uphill struggle" going into the European parliament elections in May, party leader Nick Clegg has said.
His comments came on the day a YouGov opinion poll for The Sun suggested that the Conservatives would come third if the European elections were held tomorrow, with 23% of the vote, compared with 26% for UKIP, 32% for Labour and 9% for the Lib Dems.
Mr Clegg criticised the accuracy of pollsters, who he said "make wildly different predictions almost none of which ever turn out to be the case"."
Still bitter from the failure of Cleggmania, I see.
Mike Smithson would obviously have to ban Clegg from this site for making heinous accusations about pollsters - Do pollsters actually predict elections ? (bookies do that) or do they merely record opinion on current moods
Ed Miliband has to have a significant success at the special conference. I expect the Conservatives are already preparing their soundbites in readiness for the great retreat on the unions, so he needs something to spike their guns.
Surely handpicking the leader is something the unions wont want to give up lightly ?
On Mr Jones' point, I don't quite get his description of the EP as "soviet" because it is only representative. In what way does that differ from Westminster?
I'm not using soviet as an insult in this sense just as a word for a system where you vote for delegates at one level and then those delegates vote for the delegates to the next level up who then vote for the delegates to the next level etc.
The difference is scale as scale determines the number of tiers.
MEPs are free to act and vote in any way they see fit in practice, as well as in theory. They can and do reject proposed legislation. Delegates to soviets never had such freedom.
Ed Miliband has to have a significant success at the special conference. I expect the Conservatives are already preparing their soundbites in readiness for the great retreat on the unions, so he needs something to spike their guns.
Surely handpicking the leader is something the unions wont want to give up lightly ?
Some unions picked Ed, others picked his brother, some picked Balls and a couple even went for Dianne. So unless Andy won it was always going to be possible to say that the "unions picked the leader". In the event the election was razor-tight. But Ed has laid out clearly the kind of reforms he is setting out to achieve. A lot of people think he will row back significantly from that. We'll all know whether he does soon enough.
Ed Miliband has to have a significant success at the special conference. I expect the Conservatives are already preparing their soundbites in readiness for the great retreat on the unions, so he needs something to spike their guns.
Do you think casual voters really give a flying one about internal Labour party politics?
They will care whether Ed Miliband looks like a leader. He made some ringing declarations last summer. If he has to eat his words, the public will care about that.
Ed Miliband has to have a significant success at the special conference. I expect the Conservatives are already preparing their soundbites in readiness for the great retreat on the unions, so he needs something to spike their guns.
Do you think casual voters really give a flying one about internal Labour party politics?
They will care whether Ed Miliband looks like a leader. He made some ringing declarations last summer. If he has to eat his words, the public will care about that.
I agree with that - he set out very clearly what he wanted. If he cant get that through he will look very weak. On the flipside if he does achieve radical reform then he should benefit from that. It will not be easy for ordinary punters to see through the spin that will surround it though.
And this from a guy who reduced the US's armed forces as he felt they were excessively wasteful. This guy isn't a neocon, just someone who knows NATO's needs.
Just as Ed’s attempt to break away from Union funding ended in abject failure, I fear any changes that loosen the Union’s strangle hold MP selection will end the same way. – but at least it will provide some consolatory entertainment for some.
A senior Labour figure today warned Ed Miliband that his plan to reset his party’s relationship with the unions is a "disaster waiting to happen".
He predicted the Labour leader was likely to “get a kicking” regardless of whether or not he can strike a deal with union chiefs. And the prospect of any agreement weakened today when GMB union leader Paul Kenny said discussions with Labour on reform had “broken down”.
All parents should get authorisation to take their kids out of school. Sometimes this may be for family visits. An extended trip to visit family - that because of cost is likely to be a once every few years event - may well be deemed reasonable if done at a time when the kids concerned may not be too adversely effected by being out of school. If it is done without authorisation, though, there should be severe consequences.
That's a terrible system. It's ripe for ethnic interest groups managing to get special approvals for a month plus, because schools in such areas need to be "culturally sensitive", while those in more integrated areas wanting far less time off (just a two week holiday), don't get this option. Particularly for kids who already are falling behind/with special needs, it hurts their prospects further. There are ten weeks of school holiday a year, including six weeks in the summer. That's plenty of time to visit family. Anyone else should be treated equally, whether or not they get to buy off the headmaster.
"The Liberal Democrats are facing a "real uphill struggle" going into the European parliament elections in May, party leader Nick Clegg has said.
His comments came on the day a YouGov opinion poll for The Sun suggested that the Conservatives would come third if the European elections were held tomorrow, with 23% of the vote, compared with 26% for UKIP, 32% for Labour and 9% for the Lib Dems.
Mr Clegg criticised the accuracy of pollsters, who he said "make wildly different predictions almost none of which ever turn out to be the case"."
Still bitter from the failure of Cleggmania, I see.
Hmm. Not sure about wildly differing predictions - pretty much all the polls say the LDs will do badly. The particular problem for the LDs for the Euro elections is this:
You can divide 2010 LD supporters into 5 groups:
1) True LD supporters 2) Green supporters who vote LD at general elections 3) Labour supporters who vote tactically to keep out the Tories 4) ex-Labour supporters who switched over Iraq, Tuition fees etc 5) Anti-politics, anti-big 2 voters
At a general election the LDs can hope to hang on to some of groups 2, 3 and 5 but at the Euros the only group who seems likely to vote LD is group 1. Group 2 can vote green, Groups 3 and 4 Labour, while group 5 have lots of choices.
Alex Salmond’s plan for an independent Scotland to continue to charge English students tuition fees is illegal, a former European Commissioner for Education has declared.
Yes it will be sure to be true, must be about the millionth idiot to say Salmond wrong ..... and all have been proved to be idiots. Pass me that UK debt please Salmond is wrong , it is illegal and Scotland owe a fortune.
I'm sure once Salmond publishes the legal advice on this it will clear the matter up..
I don't see the point of wasting any time on this (and not forgetting it is perfectly legal at the moment as it was London not Salmond, or maybe it was the badgers, who moved the goalposts).
All this gloating about robbing the Scots of their money (and using it as an excuse for an utterly shameful policy south of the border IMO) assumes that both Scotland and England will be in the EU in a few years' time (the time it will take for anything to go to the courts). Spot any problem with that, in view of what the same people in the same No campaign have been telling us ad nauseam about Scotland and the EU, with all the accuracy, discrimination, restraint and quality control of the farmer's muckspreader tractor on the field on the hill above my house?!?
Or for that matter aout EWNI and the EU?!
They can't even get their propaganda consistent, for heaven's sake. And that is very dangerous for them, because once the lies become inconsistent, they become incredible.
Carnyx, They are now down to telling lies about their lies, Scott lets his blind hatred for the SNP get the better of him. If Alex Salmond knocked his door and handed him £1M he would claim it was an injustice.
Quite. I'm glad I'm not the only one who sees that! BTW apologies for sayng 'Scotland and England' - I should have said 'Scotland and EWNI' as indeed I did later. Silly slip, but I was so upset about this grants nonsense - it is playing monkey politics with something very important.
The main point is that the BNP will almost certainly collapse to around 1-2%.
But how many "son of BNP" parties will get their act together enough to get on the ballot paper?
There will always be a repulsive and tiny section of the electorate who bang on endlessly about 'ethnics' and 'muslims' for obvious and despicable reasons. They are to be pitied.
Now they have nowhere to go they will likely try and latch on to the kippers which is something Farage will have to keep struggling with if they keep trying to infiltrate his party. The splinter fringe candidates and offshoots of the BNP are of no consequence whatsoever.
Comments
http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/parents-asian-sub-continent-affecting-4989121
He can discuss it with the Governor of The Bank of England when they meet in January.
Chinese, Indian, Mixed White and Asian and British pupils have a notably greater proportion of their absences authorised due to family holidays compared to other ethnic groups (around 13% for Chinese pupils, 11% for Indian pupils and 7% for both Mixed White and Asian and British pupils in 2009/10). Unauthorised family holidays make up a greater proportion of absences for Pakistani (5%), Indian and Bangladeshi pupils (4% each in 2009/10) than for other ethnic groups.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/183445/DFE-RR171.pdf
Interestingly those of Chinese descent are most guilty of this. I was less aware because they're much smaller as a segment of the population. Not quite sure what "Mixed White and Asian and British pupils" means in the second paragraph...
ZERO Lib Dem MEPS? YouGov's Euro election data tables imply the party wins 4 seats - South East, East, North West, Yorks & Humber..
The Times of London @thetimes 11m
Today's Times cartoon by @BrookesTimes http://thetim.es/PY1JAm
pic.twitter.com/H2t8Ccuppu
Also, I would point out that both Russian and the Middle East are going to be of diminishing importance as natural gas exporters. There are very few - if any - new LNG plants planned for the Middle East. And Russia - IIRC - has cancelled its Snow White LNG project.
On the other hand, Australia has massive amounts of new LNG exports coming on stream. Projects at FEED or beyond are equivilent to the entire current world LNG capacity. Furthermore, the US should start exporting LNG from Sabine Pass from 2015, and others in 2016 and 2017. Canada should be on-line by the end of the decade too. Early next decade, there should be massive amounts of LNG coming on stream from West Africa (Mozambique, Tanzania).
So, overall, Europe's dependence on Russia and the Middle East for natural gas (even making the assumption that shale gas does not happen) should decline markedly.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3976398.ece
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 48m
YouGov:UKIP just 2% behind LAB amongst those certain to vote in May's EU elections
LAB, 32
UKIP, 30
CON, 21
LD, 6
GRN, 5
NAT, 4
The LD seats will be most likely be lost in the following order.
SouthEast(1), Scotland, East Midlands, NorthEast, West Midlands, Yorks/Humber, Eastern, London, NorthWest, SouthWest, SouthEast(1)
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/jan/16/theindependent-alexander-lebedev?CMP=twt_gu
New DWP figures show that benefit fraud is 0.7% of welfare expenditure at £1.2bn... Less than errors (1.5% of welfare bill)
LAB, 29
UKIP, 24
CON, 13
LD, 0
GRN, 1
NAT, 3
to those people who support both the teachers right to strike and this zero tolerance AWOL policy you cannot have it both ways in believing that the child is missing valuable and irreplaceable education if the parent takes them from school but think its not to serious for the child if the teacher effectively keeps them from school by striking
However, given the amount of LNG coming on stream in the next few years (PNG LNG, Gorgon, Wheastone, Sabine Pass, etc. etc.) I wouldn't be surprised to see the gap narrow.
UKIP, 24 (+11)
CON, 13 (-13)
LD, 0 (-11)
GRN, 1 (-1)
BNP, 0 (-2)
NAT, 3 (n/c)
Hopefully will be a great chance to green up.
The head has to close the school at which point the teachers turn up and get a days pay.
Other parties, including BNP, got a very high share collectively last time.
Eng Dem 1.9%
Christian 1.7%
Soc Lab 1.1%
No2EU 1.0%
Jury Team 0.5%
UK First 0.5%
Libertas 0.5%
Plenty of easy pickings for UKIP from most of those parties, one suspects.
Will it really tumble to around 11%?
5 points from BNP
1.5 points from EngDem
1 point from Christian
1 point from No2EU
1 point from JuryTeam / UKfirst / Libertas
On Mr Jones' point, I don't quite get his description of the EP as "soviet" because it is only representative. In what way does that differ from Westminster? Yeah, but if Osborne was found to be having an affair, do you think British journalists would ask him about the economy in his next press conference? Or that French journalists would care about his sex life? The British media are sex-obsessed and casual about economics, and they think the French media are weird for both the other way round.
They are sadly mistaken. Owing to the vagaries of D'Hondt, many of those votes last time were wasted, contributing to increased disproportionality in the overall result.
So that Christian voter will vote UKIP.
The difference is scale as scale determines the number of tiers.
The main point is that the BNP will almost certainly collapse to around 1-2%.
Senior Labour source says Ed Miliband will propose changing party leadership rules
Understand one member, one vote being actively considered for Labour leader elections
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/39727/
I wonder if Labour would be interested in re-running 2010 leadership election under one-member-one-vote rules? #justasking
All this gloating about robbing the Scots of their money (and using it as an excuse for an utterly shameful policy south of the border IMO) assumes that both Scotland and England will be in the EU in a few years' time (the time it will take for anything to go to the courts). Spot any problem with that, in view of what the same people in the same No campaign have been telling us ad nauseam about Scotland and the EU, with all the accuracy, discrimination, restraint and quality control of the farmer's muckspreader tractor on the field on the hill above my house?!?
Or for that matter aout EWNI and the EU?!
They can't even get their propaganda consistent, for heaven's sake. And that is very dangerous for them, because once the lies become inconsistent, they become incredible.
Carnyx, They are now down to telling lies about their lies, Scott lets his blind hatred for the SNP get the better of him. If Alex Salmond knocked his door and handed him £1M he would claim it was an injustice.
Last time Labour even got to 28% was in 1999. True, they topped 44% in 1994, but that was twenty years ago - at the nadir of Major's government and under a different voting system.
Also, it might be worth being careful of these polls until the final fortnight. Most voters won't even be aware they're even on until May. In 2009, ICM polled Labour on 28% only one month out from the election - they ended up with 15.7%. There was a clear downward trend on their vote share throughout the month: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
Miliband and his EU/European policy (does anyone actually know what it is?) has come under very little scrutiny so far. He can't avoid that in May, and I doubt it'll be popular, so expect to see some movement.
My money is still on UKIP.
UKIP WAS included in the opening prompt for YouGov's EP2014 poll & firm indicates possible change for Westminster
http://bit.ly/1htY9vo
Lol - so no chance then.
Really, are you seriously disputing that our press is crap?
However as you say the LDs got a second seat in 2009 with a quotient of 7.05%.
It all depends on the integer multiples of the LibDem vote obtained by the larger parties.
Basically if:-
the Sum of INT(partyi/LD) where partyi is the votes for a party larger than the LDs
is less than the total number of seats available (in the SE's case 10)
the LDs will win a seat, otherwise not...
His comments came on the day a YouGov opinion poll for The Sun suggested that the Conservatives would come third if the European elections were held tomorrow, with 23% of the vote, compared with 26% for UKIP, 32% for Labour and 9% for the Lib Dems.
Mr Clegg criticised the accuracy of pollsters, who he said "make wildly different predictions almost none of which ever turn out to be the case"."
Still bitter from the failure of Cleggmania, I see.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25757168
And by some margin. Only a crap performance by the Tories can save the Lib Dem's night !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25754870
And this from a guy who reduced the US's armed forces as he felt they were excessively wasteful. This guy isn't a neocon, just someone who knows NATO's needs.
A senior Labour figure today warned Ed Miliband that his plan to reset his party’s relationship with the unions is a "disaster waiting to happen".
He predicted the Labour leader was likely to “get a kicking” regardless of whether or not he can strike a deal with union chiefs. And the prospect of any agreement weakened today when GMB union leader Paul Kenny said discussions with Labour on reform had “broken down”.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband-set-for-a-kicking-over-his-union-reform-plan-9063998.html
7.5% should be enough...
You can divide 2010 LD supporters into 5 groups:
1) True LD supporters
2) Green supporters who vote LD at general elections
3) Labour supporters who vote tactically to keep out the Tories
4) ex-Labour supporters who switched over Iraq, Tuition fees etc
5) Anti-politics, anti-big 2 voters
At a general election the LDs can hope to hang on to some of groups 2, 3 and 5 but at the Euros the only group who seems likely to vote LD is group 1. Group 2 can vote green, Groups 3 and 4 Labour, while group 5 have lots of choices.
Quite. I'm glad I'm not the only one who sees that! BTW apologies for sayng 'Scotland and England' - I should have said 'Scotland and EWNI' as indeed I did later. Silly slip, but I was so upset about this grants nonsense - it is playing monkey politics with something very important.
Now they have nowhere to go they will likely try and latch on to the kippers which is something Farage will have to keep struggling with if they keep trying to infiltrate his party.
The splinter fringe candidates and offshoots of the BNP are of no consequence whatsoever.