...Boris will survive without a VONC for now, at least until the local elections in May.... I think Boris would still narrowly win it at the moment....
Compare this to HY's previous 90,916 posts to illustrate how much the political climate has now changed....
Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...
I did a stint on secondment in the RAF. During that time I knew SB by reputation but not personally. That reputation was stellar. He was the unmatched expert on the Adour engine and universally held to be a good bloke.
Bear in mind what it takes me to write something positive about an individual who is both RAF AND a tory.
That's startling. If he's such an intelligent, good bloke why is he such a dickhead on so many topics I wonder?
He is opinionated and frequently wrong, which is rarely a great mix, but not a dickhead. Unfailingly polite and for a Brexiteer ringleader at least, honest and up front.
Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.
Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction
Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore
Finally I think he is capable of describing the 'parties' in a way that means people would understand. I don't know much about these so called parties as it seems fairly dubious to me, and much less serious than the flat refurbishment fraud, but I work in the civil service and in my wider team there are people who have had to be on site for the entire pandemic. Do I think that they might have took in some mince pies and worn Christmas jumpers and done something a bit fun whilst it was quieter just before Christmas? I can easily see how it would happen and I think Boris could easily spin the story in a positive light provided that only people who would normally be working were there. I think this is much more explicable than going to Barnard Castle.
If he were capable of saying sorry when caught red handed this would all have gone away.
A first response of "At number 10 we were all working incredibly hard last year, often staying late into the evening and eating here. We apologise if any intended business meetings progressed into what others could understand as a party, and will make sure we do better in future", would have made it a one or two day story instead of the enduring one it is due to the lying and taking us for fools.
I agree and I am unsure how this has blown up out of all proportion when Boris is a fraud in my understanding in his dealings over the flat refurbishment. Unfortunately when cornered most politicians back their own - this is not so clear cut that if this were a Labour Government and labour staff labour supporters would be out in force defending them, and Tories would be calling for heads to roll. I honestly think that the flat issue is indefensible, but as ever most people who dislike Boris hate him so much they lose reason. Just look at the thread headers on this site since Boris took over - every minor bump in the road has been 'terrible news for Boris' when obviously up until now most stuff hasn't stuck.
It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.
Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Politicians should spend a lot less time on twitter. I mean why would you cover up a CCTV. Camera whilst sat on a webcam - bonkers
All cameras should be covered at all times unless you specifically intend for them to be looking at you. If the goal of the camera is to record what's happening when you're not in the room, it's good practice to apply the bin bag when entering the room in the morning and only remove it when you leave. You should be doing the same with the webcam on the computer, but obviously you need to remove it when you're doing a zoom call.
The same should really apply to microphones which should have hardware switches, unfortunately they don't.
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
As so often before, it's not the original misdemeanour it's the lies to cover it up that do the damage.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.
Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction
Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore
Finally I think he is capable of describing the 'parties' in a way that means people would understand. I don't know much about these so called parties as it seems fairly dubious to me, and much less serious than the flat refurbishment fraud, but I work in the civil service and in my wider team there are people who have had to be on site for the entire pandemic. Do I think that they might have took in some mince pies and worn Christmas jumpers and done something a bit fun whilst it was quieter just before Christmas? I can easily see how it would happen and I think Boris could easily spin the story in a positive light provided that only people who would normally be working were there. I think this is much more explicable than going to Barnard Castle.
If he were capable of saying sorry when caught red handed this would all have gone away.
A first response of "At number 10 we were all working incredibly hard last year, often staying late into the evening and eating here. We apologise if any intended business meetings progressed into what others could understand as a party, and will make sure we do better in future", would have made it a one or two day story instead of the enduring one it is due to the lying and taking us for fools.
I agree and I am unsure how this has blown up out of all proportion when Boris is a fraud in my understanding in his dealings over the flat refurbishment. Unfortunately when cornered most politicians back their own - this is not so clear cut that if this were a Labour Government and labour staff labour supporters would be out in force defending them, and Tories would be calling for heads to roll. I honestly think that the flat issue is indefensible, but as ever most people who dislike Boris hate him so much they lose reason. Just look at the thread headers on this site since Boris took over - every minor bump in the road has been 'terrible news for Boris' when obviously up until now most stuff hasn't stuck.
Similar things have happened half a dozen times in two years as PM, so it is easy to understand why. The PM simply does not apologise if he thinks there is even a 1% chance he can get away without doing so. Historians might know, did Churchill ever apologise?
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Even if it's true that it shows he was doing something wrong you don't know whether it was something unacceptable like having a christmas party or some routine wrongdoing that the voters expect of Boris, like corruption or marital infidelity.
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
As so often before, it's not the original misdemeanour it's the lies to cover it up that do the damage.
Ever since Watergate that has been the media's go to excuse to justify hours and hours and hours of droning on about some trivia that missed its mark in the first instance. It wore thin a very long time ago.
Starmer on Marr confirms Labour will vote with the government and back Plan B and vaxports (ideally linked to negative tests) in the Commons on Tuesday in support of the NHS and the public, despite the fact Boris is in his words 'unfit for office'
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
As so often before, it's not the original misdemeanour it's the lies to cover it up that do the damage.
Ever since Watergate that has been the media's go to excuse to justify hours and hours and hours of droning on about some trivia that missed its mark in the first instance. It wore thin a very long time ago.
Since long before Watergate (e.g. Profumo). So why do the idiots keep making the same mistake?
Also, I'm surprised you put such a low value on probity in politicians tbh.
Starmer on Marr confirms Labour will vote with the government and back Plan B and vaxports (ideally linked to negative tests) in the Commons on Tuesday in support of the NHS and the public, despite the fact Boris is in his words 'unfit for office'
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
As so often before, it's not the original misdemeanour it's the lies to cover it up that do the damage.
Ever since Watergate that has been the media's go to excuse to justify hours and hours and hours of droning on about some trivia that missed its mark in the first instance. It wore thin a very long time ago.
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Even if it's true that it shows he was doing something wrong you don't know whether it was something unacceptable like having a christmas party or some routine wrongdoing that the voters expect of Boris, like corruption or marital infidelity.
Starmer on Marr confirms Labour will vote with the government and back Plan B and vaxports (ideally linked to negative tests) in the Commons on Tuesday in support of the NHS and the public, despite the fact Boris is in his words 'unfit for office'
Sensible approach from Captain Sensible.
Better than Corbyn voting against May's Deal even though he largely agreed with it anyway
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Even if it's true that it shows he was doing something wrong you don't know whether it was something unacceptable like having a christmas party or some routine wrongdoing that the voters expect of Boris, like corruption or marital infidelity.
That's a QC spreading an obvious falsehood.
She has now removed that tweet, but WTF did she think she was doing?
I just searched twitter 'latest' for "bin bag" - there are well over 200 of them in just the last 5 minutes, with lots of those Nats who had seen Cherry's moronic lie.
And only about 3 of them saying 'no, it's a curtain'
Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.
Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction
Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore
Finally I think he is capable of describing the 'parties' in a way that means people would understand. I don't know much about these so called parties as it seems fairly dubious to me, and much less serious than the flat refurbishment fraud, but I work in the civil service and in my wider team there are people who have had to be on site for the entire pandemic. Do I think that they might have took in some mince pies and worn Christmas jumpers and done something a bit fun whilst it was quieter just before Christmas? I can easily see how it would happen and I think Boris could easily spin the story in a positive light provided that only people who would normally be working were there. I think this is much more explicable than going to Barnard Castle.
If he were capable of saying sorry when caught red handed this would all have gone away.
A first response of "At number 10 we were all working incredibly hard last year, often staying late into the evening and eating here. We apologise if any intended business meetings progressed into what others could understand as a party, and will make sure we do better in future", would have made it a one or two day story instead of the enduring one it is due to the lying and taking us for fools.
I agree and I am unsure how this has blown up out of all proportion when Boris is a fraud in my understanding in his dealings over the flat refurbishment. Unfortunately when cornered most politicians back their own - this is not so clear cut that if this were a Labour Government and labour staff labour supporters would be out in force defending them, and Tories would be calling for heads to roll. I honestly think that the flat issue is indefensible, but as ever most people who dislike Boris hate him so much they lose reason. Just look at the thread headers on this site since Boris took over - every minor bump in the road has been 'terrible news for Boris' when obviously up until now most stuff hasn't stuck.
Similar things have happened half a dozen times in two years as PM, so it is easy to understand why. The PM simply does not apologise if he thinks there is even a 1% chance he can get away without doing so. Historians might know, did Churchill ever apologise?
Churchill certainly spoke of making mistakes in the prosecution of the war.
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
I think people would rather be governed by truth-telling adults. I am guessing that if a similar shindig were suggested in your office/chambers in the same legal setting you would say, Just no. It's not as if we are discussing a buch of undergraduates, and it's not as if this is an isolated instance of lying.
It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.
Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Even if it's true that it shows he was doing something wrong you don't know whether it was something unacceptable like having a christmas party or some routine wrongdoing that the voters expect of Boris, like corruption or marital infidelity.
That's a QC spreading an obvious falsehood.
She has now removed that tweet, but WTF did she think she was doing?
I just searched twitter 'latest' for "bin bag" - there are well over 200 of them in just the last 5 minutes, with lots of those Nats who had seen Cherry's moronic lie.
And only about 3 of them saying 'no, it's a curtain'
BREAKING: Boris Johnson denies hosting quiz at No 10, as it was actually an emergency Cobra meeting to determine which Irish singer-songwriter released the 1990 hit single ‘Nothing Compares 2 U’. https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1469961480082804738
Fake News...
The actual question was "What number of vaccines did Priti Patel state at her news conference?"
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Even if it's true that it shows he was doing something wrong you don't know whether it was something unacceptable like having a christmas party or some routine wrongdoing that the voters expect of Boris, like corruption or marital infidelity.
That's a QC spreading an obvious falsehood.
She has now removed that tweet, but WTF did she think she was doing?
I just searched twitter 'latest' for "bin bag" - there are well over 200 of them in just the last 5 minutes, with lots of those Nats who had seen Cherry's moronic lie.
And only about 3 of them saying 'no, it's a curtain'
Probably better, a bin bag might be too thin.
Everyone knows you need a tinfoil hat to cover security cameras.
Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.
Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction
Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore
Finally I think he is capable of describing the 'parties' in a way that means people would understand. I don't know much about these so called parties as it seems fairly dubious to me, and much less serious than the flat refurbishment fraud, but I work in the civil service and in my wider team there are people who have had to be on site for the entire pandemic. Do I think that they might have took in some mince pies and worn Christmas jumpers and done something a bit fun whilst it was quieter just before Christmas? I can easily see how it would happen and I think Boris could easily spin the story in a positive light provided that only people who would normally be working were there. I think this is much more explicable than going to Barnard Castle.
If he were capable of saying sorry when caught red handed this would all have gone away.
A first response of "At number 10 we were all working incredibly hard last year, often staying late into the evening and eating here. We apologise if any intended business meetings progressed into what others could understand as a party, and will make sure we do better in future", would have made it a one or two day story instead of the enduring one it is due to the lying and taking us for fools.
I agree and I am unsure how this has blown up out of all proportion when Boris is a fraud in my understanding in his dealings over the flat refurbishment. Unfortunately when cornered most politicians back their own - this is not so clear cut that if this were a Labour Government and labour staff labour supporters would be out in force defending them, and Tories would be calling for heads to roll. I honestly think that the flat issue is indefensible, but as ever most people who dislike Boris hate him so much they lose reason. Just look at the thread headers on this site since Boris took over - every minor bump in the road has been 'terrible news for Boris' when obviously up until now most stuff hasn't stuck.
Flat refurb Paterson Afghan dog evacuation Partygate ...
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
Yes, but it's not the events in themselves that are the key issue, is it?
It's the Prime Minister's constant lying and dissembling.
Starmer on Marr confirms Labour will vote with the government and back Plan B and vaxports (ideally linked to negative tests) in the Commons on Tuesday in support of the NHS and the public, despite the fact Boris is in his words 'unfit for office'
Sensible approach from Captain Sensible.
Quite a good nickname for SKS, I like it. A good strategy is to follow the advice in his big hit:
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Even if it's true that it shows he was doing something wrong you don't know whether it was something unacceptable like having a christmas party or some routine wrongdoing that the voters expect of Boris, like corruption or marital infidelity.
That's a QC spreading an obvious falsehood.
She has now removed that tweet, but WTF did she think she was doing?
I just searched twitter 'latest' for "bin bag" - there are well over 200 of them in just the last 5 minutes, with lots of those Nats who had seen Cherry's moronic lie.
And only about 3 of them saying 'no, it's a curtain'
It's not obvious that it's a curtain until you see other pictures of the room tbf.
When the bin bag was first mentioned last night I thought it looked a bit of a stretch but from the Mirror's photo I could see how people might interpret it as such.
As Boris Johnson’s standing with voters bombs because they don’t trust him, a reminder that my monologue broadcast during the 2019 GE when it was clear he was bottling out of an interview with me, said it would have centred on issues of trust — or lack of. https://twitter.com/robburl/status/1468524940282327041
The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.
I do. He can't.
He isn't going to become a completely different person in his late 50s. Frankly, why should he? The tories are minded to indulge his dishonesty, laziness and incompetence for a good while yet.
Upon reflection, you’re right. We all know that the old dog cannot learn new tricks.
Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.
Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction
Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore
Finally I think he is capable of describing the 'parties' in a way that means people would understand. I don't know much about these so called parties as it seems fairly dubious to me, and much less serious than the flat refurbishment fraud, but I work in the civil service and in my wider team there are people who have had to be on site for the entire pandemic. Do I think that they might have took in some mince pies and worn Christmas jumpers and done something a bit fun whilst it was quieter just before Christmas? I can easily see how it would happen and I think Boris could easily spin the story in a positive light provided that only people who would normally be working were there. I think this is much more explicable than going to Barnard Castle.
If he were capable of saying sorry when caught red handed this would all have gone away.
A first response of "At number 10 we were all working incredibly hard last year, often staying late into the evening and eating here. We apologise if any intended business meetings progressed into what others could understand as a party, and will make sure we do better in future", would have made it a one or two day story instead of the enduring one it is due to the lying and taking us for fools.
I agree and I am unsure how this has blown up out of all proportion when Boris is a fraud in my understanding in his dealings over the flat refurbishment. Unfortunately when cornered most politicians back their own - this is not so clear cut that if this were a Labour Government and labour staff labour supporters would be out in force defending them, and Tories would be calling for heads to roll. I honestly think that the flat issue is indefensible, but as ever most people who dislike Boris hate him so much they lose reason. Just look at the thread headers on this site since Boris took over - every minor bump in the road has been 'terrible news for Boris' when obviously up until now most stuff hasn't stuck.
Flat refurb Paterson Afghan dog evacuation Partygate ...
The scandals just keep rolling in.
I've just had a worrying thought, which might make us step back from toppling Johnson.
Will Steve Baker approve of Carrie's wallpaper, or will we have to go through another flat refurbishment?
Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.
To survive he needs to do two things:
Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.
Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.
I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.
If it once becomes clear to a victim that they’ve been gaslighted, they become much less susceptible to the practice. If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
This is how news stories develop. Its the "does it have legs" test - if the story is going to keep going it walks / runs along under its own steam pulling in new information and new angles.
The "gotcha" is that they have caught him forcing people to die alone / give birth alone / live miserably whilst he and his ignore the rules they have imposed and carry on like they are ordained by God to do whatever they like.
People are outraged. Viscerally. Which superheats whatever new angles and information break. Propelling the story along every faster. The only way out for the PM is for a bigger story to replace it, but as Covid is powering up and lockdown is in the wings waiting to come on, this one will run and run getting bigger and bigger.
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
As so often before, it's not the original misdemeanour it's the lies to cover it up that do the damage.
Ever since Watergate that has been the media's go to excuse to justify hours and hours and hours of droning on about some trivia that missed its mark in the first instance. It wore thin a very long time ago.
Since long before Watergate (e.g. Profumo). So why do the idiots keep making the same mistake?
Also, I'm surprised you put such a low value on probity in politicians tbh.
It's a certain cynicism. It's what politicians do. They lie. I am now old enough not to put faith in any of the breed of any stripe. Judge them by their actions and their results, not by what they say unless you can independently vouch it. That way you can be disappointed slightly less often.
Personally, I value the truth very highly. It's one of the reasons why I was never cut out for politics.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
The thing is that Johnson couldn't lie straight in bed. He is the Aldridge Prior of politics. Having a Prime Minister who is completely untrustworthy is highly damaging, even when he is telling the truth. If Johnson said that the sun will rise in the east, people would doubt it.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...
I did a stint on secondment in the RAF. During that time I knew SB by reputation but not personally. That reputation was stellar. He was the unmatched expert on the Adour engine and universally held to be a good bloke.
Bear in mind what it takes me to write something positive about an individual who is both RAF AND a tory.
Be honest, if he didn’t ride a bike would you still feel the faint stirrings of affinity?
Good point. A friend once told me Esther McVey was one of the nicest people he'd met.....and on the other hand that well loved character in ......... was hated by the entire cast and crew. I prefer to go on the evidence. Tory>Brexiteer>....
Starmer on Marr confirms Labour will vote with the government and back Plan B and vaxports (ideally linked to negative tests) in the Commons on Tuesday in support of the NHS and the public, despite the fact Boris is in his words 'unfit for office'
Sensible approach from Captain Sensible.
Quite a good nickname for SKS, I like it. A good strategy is to follow the advice in his big hit:
While I've advocated for a VONC I'm not expecting one in the short-term.
I expect the Lib Dems will win NS next week with a majority in the thousands, but then we're into Christmas and people will switch off from politics for a few weeks.
In January people won't be bothered about 'Last Christmas' parties anymore, they'll be bothered by what happened this Christmas and any possible Omicron restrictions in January. If the UK ends up back in lockdown then the PM must be ousted.
The UK should be almost uniquely well-placed to ride an Omicron wave without lockdown thanks to very high vaccine rates, booster rates, plus having the exit wave over the summer boosting natural immunity too. If we avoid an Omicron lockdown and other nations don't, then that could boost the government's popularity again prior to other possible news stories moving the agenda on like Article 16 being invoked.
For the bet I wouldn't take the bet either way as there's too many complications. If Boris really gets mired in worse he could jump before being pushed. Even if Boris recovers from this in January then it wouldn't pay out until potentially 2024 and there's always the possibility to have a VONC in 2023 on entirely unrelated matters.
It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.
Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Even if it's true that it shows he was doing something wrong you don't know whether it was something unacceptable like having a christmas party or some routine wrongdoing that the voters expect of Boris, like corruption or marital infidelity.
That's a QC spreading an obvious falsehood.
She has now removed that tweet, but WTF did she think she was doing?
I just searched twitter 'latest' for "bin bag" - there are well over 200 of them in just the last 5 minutes, with lots of those Nats who had seen Cherry's moronic lie.
And only about 3 of them saying 'no, it's a curtain'
It's not obvious that it's a curtain until you see other pictures of the room tbf.
When the bin bag was first mentioned last night I thought it looked a bit of a stretch but from the Mirror's photo I could see how people might interpret it as such.
It's obvious to anybody who engages their brain that it's definitely not a bin bag.
Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.
To survive he needs to do two things:
Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.
Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.
I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.
If it once becomes clear to a victim that they’ve been gaslighted, they become much less susceptible to the practice. If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
Is that right? Doesn't seem to the case with Trump at all?
I think an election winning coalition can be kept together with an us vs them attitude even if the leader of us is a proven and known incompetent liar.
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
As so often before, it's not the original misdemeanour it's the lies to cover it up that do the damage.
Ever since Watergate that has been the media's go to excuse to justify hours and hours and hours of droning on about some trivia that missed its mark in the first instance. It wore thin a very long time ago.
Since long before Watergate (e.g. Profumo). So why do the idiots keep making the same mistake?
Also, I'm surprised you put such a low value on probity in politicians tbh.
It's a certain cynicism. It's what politicians do. They lie. I am now old enough not to put faith in any of the breed of any stripe. Judge them by their actions and their results, not by what they say unless you can independently vouch it. That way you can be disappointed slightly less often.
Personally, I value the truth very highly. It's one of the reasons why I was never cut out for politics.
I don't doubt that you value the truth very highly, your posts give that impression.
I am old enough to remember when a minister was expected resigned for lying. I dont see why we should accept a lower standard today.
It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.
Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.
@joannaccherry It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception. https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512
Even if it's true that it shows he was doing something wrong you don't know whether it was something unacceptable like having a christmas party or some routine wrongdoing that the voters expect of Boris, like corruption or marital infidelity.
That's a QC spreading an obvious falsehood.
She has now removed that tweet, but WTF did she think she was doing?
I just searched twitter 'latest' for "bin bag" - there are well over 200 of them in just the last 5 minutes, with lots of those Nats who had seen Cherry's moronic lie.
And only about 3 of them saying 'no, it's a curtain'
It's not obvious that it's a curtain until you see other pictures of the room tbf.
When the bin bag was first mentioned last night I thought it looked a bit of a stretch but from the Mirror's photo I could see how people might interpret it as such.
It's obvious to anybody who engages their brain that it's definitely not a bin bag.
No, it's the Prime Minister. He just looks a bit scruffy.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
The thing is that Johnson couldn't lie straight in bed. He is the Aldridge Pryor of politics. Having a Prime Minister who is completely untrustworthy is highly damaging, even when he is telling the truth. If Johnson said that the sun will rise in the east, people would doubt it.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
Liz Truss has leaked the treasury post-Autumn-statement party, helpfully.
What do you know about his morals, soundness or familyness? All I know about him, is his relentless self promotion: government posters with his personal signature on them and so on. And let's not forget the implied deal under which he became CotE.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
The thing is that Johnson couldn't lie straight in bed. He is the Aldridge Prior of politics. Having a Prime Minister who is completely untrustworthy is highly damaging, even when he is telling the truth. If Johnson said that the sun will rise in the east, people would doubt it.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
The Chancellor who piled necessary taxes on NI instead of IT or a capital tax of some description? Who cut the benefits of the poorest to balance the books whilst protecting wealthy pensioners, again? I am a fan but no one in politics deserves adoration or unqualified admiration.
It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.
Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.
Nadhim Zahawi's line that the staff in the No10 quiz were there because "they had to respond to a national emergency" is in no way undermined by the fact that one of them is wearing tinsel. https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1469967317773828099
Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.
To survive he needs to do two things:
Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.
Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.
I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.
If it once becomes clear to a victim that they’ve been gaslighted, they become much less susceptible to the practice. If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
Is that right? Doesn't seem to the case with Trump at all?
I think an election winning coalition can be kept together with an us vs them attitude even if the leader of us is a proven and known incompetent liar.
I am pretty sure the Trumpites do not realise he has gaslighted them.
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
As so often before, it's not the original misdemeanour it's the lies to cover it up that do the damage.
Ever since Watergate that has been the media's go to excuse to justify hours and hours and hours of droning on about some trivia that missed its mark in the first instance. It wore thin a very long time ago.
What the two things have in common is that leaders were brutally and undeniably exposed as inveterate and deliberate liars. I’ll grant you that Boris is probably not engaged in a criminal conspiracy to subvert the electoral process. On the other hand, I’ve missed your complaints about the relentless trivia - prime ministerial photo ops, for instance - that the media subjects us to the rest of the time.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
This is how news stories develop. Its the "does it have legs" test - if the story is going to keep going it walks / runs along under its own steam pulling in new information and new angles.
The "gotcha" is that they have caught him forcing people to die alone / give birth alone / live miserably whilst he and his ignore the rules they have imposed and carry on like they are ordained by God to do whatever they like.
People are outraged. Viscerally. Which superheats whatever new angles and information break. Propelling the story along every faster. The only way out for the PM is for a bigger story to replace it, but as Covid is powering up and lockdown is in the wings waiting to come on, this one will run and run getting bigger and bigger.
Does it ever cross your mind that the way our media "develop" news stories is just a little bit sick and self interested, feeding on themselves and eventually eating themselves?
Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules
"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened." https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539
Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?
As so often before, it's not the original misdemeanour it's the lies to cover it up that do the damage.
Ever since Watergate that has been the media's go to excuse to justify hours and hours and hours of droning on about some trivia that missed its mark in the first instance. It wore thin a very long time ago.
Since long before Watergate (e.g. Profumo). So why do the idiots keep making the same mistake?
Also, I'm surprised you put such a low value on probity in politicians tbh.
It's a certain cynicism. It's what politicians do. They lie. I am now old enough not to put faith in any of the breed of any stripe. Judge them by their actions and their results, not by what they say unless you can independently vouch it. That way you can be disappointed slightly less often.
Personally, I value the truth very highly. It's one of the reasons why I was never cut out for politics.
But you are a prosecutor. Criminals gonna crime, it's what they do. Is that a reason for *not* jumping on them as hard and painfully as possible whenever they get caught at it?
Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.
To survive he needs to do two things:
Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.
Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.
I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.
If it once becomes clear to a victim that they’ve been gaslighted, they become much less susceptible to the practice. If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
Is that right? Doesn't seem to the case with Trump at all?
I think an election winning coalition can be kept together with an us vs them attitude even if the leader of us is a proven and known incompetent liar.
I don't think what Trump does is really gas-lighting. Gas-lighting is telling people lies that make them doubt their own judgement. Trump's strategy is:
- Tell supporters lies they want to believe - Rile up opponents in ways that play into messages he wants to get over to supporters - Lie constantly so that "Trump lies" isn't a story
Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.
To survive he needs to do two things:
Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.
Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.
I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.
If it once becomes clear to a victim that they’ve been gaslighted, they become much less susceptible to the practice. If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
Is that right? Doesn't seem to the case with Trump at all?
I think an election winning coalition can be kept together with an us vs them attitude even if the leader of us is a proven and known incompetent liar.
I am pretty sure the Trumpites do not realise he has gaslighted them.
If you get all your news from Fox, Facebook and worse, would you have the information to make that judgement?
Having news sources that are aware they ought to try to be impartial is a blooming good thing.
Watching Zahawi on Marr, he clearly doesn’t understand other factors on exponential growth. He suggests 1 million cases by the end of the month means 2 million three days later, then 4 three days after that. Keep going, we’re all dead by the 30th jan. Yes exponential rise at first, but it ALWAYS slows. Is he spinning a line to get the message across, or does he believe what he is saying/has been told?
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
The thing is that Johnson couldn't lie straight in bed. He is the Aldridge Prior of politics. Having a Prime Minister who is completely untrustworthy is highly damaging, even when he is telling the truth. If Johnson said that the sun will rise in the east, people would doubt it.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
The Chancellor who piled necessary taxes on NI instead of IT or a capital tax of some description? Who cut the benefits of the poorest to balance the books whilst protecting wealthy pensioners, again? I am a fan but no one in politics deserves adoration or unqualified admiration.
I think Sunak would struggle with the Red Wall, but would win back a lot of the Blue Wall.
I wouldn't vote for him, but he does at least have some personal integrity, a pretty rare thing in this cabinet. Leader replacements are usually to rectify the manifest defects of the outgoing one, and often over done as a result. I think Rishi will get it.
Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.
To survive he needs to do two things:
Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.
Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.
I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.
If it once becomes clear to a victim that they’ve been gaslighted, they become much less susceptible to the practice. If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
Is that right? Doesn't seem to the case with Trump at all?
I think an election winning coalition can be kept together with an us vs them attitude even if the leader of us is a proven and known incompetent liar.
I am pretty sure the Trumpites do not realise he has gaslighted them.
That might be true for some of his hardcore but lots of his voters do know, probably the majority of Republican voters. Even back in 2016 there were lots of Republican voters based on he is a lying asshole but he is better than Clinton.
I just can’t see Johnson going voluntarily, and the polling numbers are nowhere near bad enough to trigger a large rebellion. A Lib Dem by election gain would be shrugged off easily, as they so often have been before. A Hold will be spun as a BJ triumph in the current climate.
The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.
What he just cannot afford to do is deliver gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. Again. It’s just not funny anymore.
If I was a fan of Smarkets (I’m not) I’d be backing No.
I think it likely there is a VONC, but that he survives it, and that means a year of safety. That would push a further VONC very close to a GE.
Timing is everything in comedy.
Nothing more likely to shore up Boris than the opposition overplaying the hand. Blackford might have got headlines, but in calling for Boris’ resignation he made it far harder for Tories to break cover. The opposition needs to place the traps and wait. So far Starmer is playing it well.
Whilst it's in the national interest for BoJo to go pronto, it's in the partisan interest of the opposition for him to be there in 2024.
And @foxy has solved the problem of the complacency-despair gap. The scriptwriters are spoiling us:
Now-December 2022: Complacency December 2022: A VONC that BoJo survives December 2022-3: BoJo is immune December 2023-4: Too late, too far behind, better to rebuild in opposition...
It's all a bit unlikely, but that's how Jeffrey Archer would plot it.
The immunity from a repeat VONC for a year is one of the sillier rules. I can see why it is there, but if a situation is dire enough for a VONC to be triggered then there has to be a fairly good chance that it will deteriorate further within that year, a clear and obvious majority of the PCP will then have had enough, and the leader will be ousted by the time-honoured mechanism of the Cabinet telling them that it's all over - as happened with May.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
Starmer took exactly that line on Marr. Marr pushed, but Starmer was firm. We're on the science.
It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.
Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.
This health department stops ‘all COVID-19 related work’ after Missouri AG threat https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article256462541.html The local health department of a rural southern Missouri county is halting its COVID-19 response efforts after Attorney General Eric Schmitt wrote agencies this week demanding they drop mitigation measures. The Laclede County Health Department, which serves a 35,000-person county northeast of Springfield, made the announcement in a Facebook post Thursday morning that it was suspending “all COVID-19 related work.” It will no longer investigate COVID cases, contact-trace, issue directives for exposed residents to quarantine themselves or make public announcements of case numbers and deaths. The department pointed residents to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and their personal doctors for directions on what to do about a COVID diagnosis. Cases have been on the uptick in Laclede County since mid-November, according to the state health department. Just 35% of the population is fully vaccinated
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
The thing is that Johnson couldn't lie straight in bed. He is the Aldridge Pryor of politics. Having a Prime Minister who is completely untrustworthy is highly damaging, even when he is telling the truth. If Johnson said that the sun will rise in the east, people would doubt it.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
Liz Truss has leaked the treasury post-Autumn-statement party, helpfully.
What do you know about his morals, soundness or familyness? All I know about him, is his relentless self promotion: government posters with his personal signature on them and so on. And let's not forget the implied deal under which he became CotE.
He certainly is ambitious, but you won't find a story of sleaze or infidelity about him, because there isn't one.
Watching Zahawi on Marr, he clearly doesn’t understand other factors on exponential growth. He suggests 1 million cases by the end of the month means 2 million three days later, then 4 three days after that. Keep going, we’re all dead by the 30th jan. Yes exponential rise at first, but it ALWAYS slows. Is he spinning a line to get the message across, or does he believe what he is saying/has been told?
This 1m number is annoying. It seems to have been plucked out of thin air as it is a big round number.
A couple of days ago Sky reported the UKHSA as correcting it to 1m cumulative cases by the end of the month. Which is even weirder as that is fairly similar to current run rate and run rate for last few months in the first place.
Today we are back to ministers using it as 1m cases on a given day.
Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.
To survive he needs to do two things:
Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.
Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.
I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.
If it once becomes clear to a victim that they’ve been gaslighted, they become much less susceptible to the practice. If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
Is that right? Doesn't seem to the case with Trump at all?
I think an election winning coalition can be kept together with an us vs them attitude even if the leader of us is a proven and known incompetent liar.
I don't think what Trump does is really gas-lighting. Gas-lighting is telling people lies that make them doubt their own judgement. Trump's strategy is:
- Tell supporters lies they want to believe - Rile up opponents in ways that play into messages he wants to get over to supporters - Lie constantly so that "Trump lies" isn't a story
Starmer on Marr confirms Labour will vote with the government and back Plan B and vaxports (ideally linked to negative tests) in the Commons on Tuesday in support of the NHS and the public, despite the fact Boris is in his words 'unfit for office'
Sensible approach from Captain Sensible.
Quite a good nickname for SKS, I like it. A good strategy is to follow the advice in his big hit:
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
The thing is that Johnson couldn't lie straight in bed. He is the Aldridge Pryor of politics. Having a Prime Minister who is completely untrustworthy is highly damaging, even when he is telling the truth. If Johnson said that the sun will rise in the east, people would doubt it.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
Liz Truss has leaked the treasury post-Autumn-statement party, helpfully.
What do you know about his morals, soundness or familyness? All I know about him, is his relentless self promotion: government posters with his personal signature on them and so on. And let's not forget the implied deal under which he became CotE.
He certainly is ambitious, but you won't find a story of sleaze or infidelity about him, because there isn't one.
He can afford not to be sleazy, he doesn't get the cleanest bill of health over his city career, and infidelity is none of our business, but an easy thing to cover up anyway if approached intelligently and methodically.
Watching Zahawi on Marr, he clearly doesn’t understand other factors on exponential growth. He suggests 1 million cases by the end of the month means 2 million three days later, then 4 three days after that. Keep going, we’re all dead by the 30th jan. Yes exponential rise at first, but it ALWAYS slows. Is he spinning a line to get the message across, or does he believe what he is saying/has been told?
This 1m number is annoying. It seems to have been plucked out of thin air as it is a big round number.
A couple of days ago Sky reported the UKHSA as correcting it to 1m cumulative cases by the end of the month. Which is even weirder as that is fairly similar to current run rate and run rate for last few months in the first place.
Today we are back to ministers using it as 1m cases on a given day.
I think you are on the money. It a suspiciously large, easy number. I’m not saying it’s impossible for 31st dec having 1,000,000 new cases, but I think there is more chance of me winning the GP thus afternoon. There is a lack of clarity in the messaging. Assuming the ons figures are about right, probably around a million people in the U.K. would test positive today. But that’s not what they are saying (I think).
The sub-sample size is only 115, but Opinium has Labour leading by 50% - 37% in seats gained by the Tories in 2019. Labour are also only just behind, by 38% - 35% in seats held by the Tories in 2019.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
Like you I don't care too much whether people had parties a year ago and I might prefer discussion of Johnson's unfitness to govern revolved around things that have mattered and do matter.
Johnson's flaws go far beyond not being a family man. He has no concept of the truth, doesn't distinguish right from wrong, is utterly irresponsible, has a despotic tendency and is chaotic in his dealings. Nothing has changed in the past couple of weeks. All of this was obvious from the off to anyone paying attention and that cares.
I also don't think Johnson has made good calls in general. I can credit him with early energy on the vaccination programme, but not a lot else.
Watching Zahawi on Marr, he clearly doesn’t understand other factors on exponential growth. He suggests 1 million cases by the end of the month means 2 million three days later, then 4 three days after that. Keep going, we’re all dead by the 30th jan. Yes exponential rise at first, but it ALWAYS slows. Is he spinning a line to get the message across, or does he believe what he is saying/has been told?
This 1m number is annoying. It seems to have been plucked out of thin air as it is a big round number.
A couple of days ago Sky reported the UKHSA as correcting it to 1m cumulative cases by the end of the month. Which is even weirder as that is fairly similar to current run rate and run rate for last few months in the first place.
Today we are back to ministers using it as 1m cases on a given day.
I think you are on the money. It a suspiciously large, easy number. I’m not saying it’s impossible for 31st dec having 1,000,000 new cases, but I think there is more chance of me winning the GP thus afternoon. There is a lack of clarity in the messaging. Assuming the ons figures are about right, probably around a million people in the U.K. would test positive today. But that’s not what they are saying (I think).
Balloux is astonished how fast SA rose and is now falling. Or appears to be.
I wonder whether Michael Levitt has done a gompertz curve for it yet?
Johnson is not going to be ousted and neither do the opposition want him to be. He is completely and irretrievably damaged. He is a now seen as a ridiculous caricature. 'Ratner' has been the benchmark for a brand collapsing thanks to the failings of it's owner. Well the lucky man has just been eclipsed
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
The thing is that Johnson couldn't lie straight in bed. He is the Aldridge Prior of politics. Having a Prime Minister who is completely untrustworthy is highly damaging, even when he is telling the truth. If Johnson said that the sun will rise in the east, people would doubt it.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
The Chancellor who piled necessary taxes on NI instead of IT or a capital tax of some description? Who cut the benefits of the poorest to balance the books whilst protecting wealthy pensioners, again? I am a fan but no one in politics deserves adoration or unqualified admiration.
The Chancellor knows who the Tory base is (and of course he only ended the extension of a UC uplift he had given the poorest in the first place)
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 11h I wonder whether the aides allegedly "spooked" by the vaxx effectiveness data grasp that only of order 22% of adults are in the "only 2 doses & no infection" category?
Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.
To survive he needs to do two things:
Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.
Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.
I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.
If it once becomes clear to a victim that they’ve been gaslighted, they become much less susceptible to the practice. If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
Is that right? Doesn't seem to the case with Trump at all?
I think an election winning coalition can be kept together with an us vs them attitude even if the leader of us is a proven and known incompetent liar.
I don't think what Trump does is really gas-lighting. Gas-lighting is telling people lies that make them doubt their own judgement. Trump's strategy is:
- Tell supporters lies they want to believe - Rile up opponents in ways that play into messages he wants to get over to supporters - Lie constantly so that "Trump lies" isn't a story
Is that not the same as Bozo?
Yes, he runs a less extreme version of the same playbook.
Perhaps SKS could make a humorous virtue of his perceived boringness like Steve David and James Milner have in the past? Done in the right way a self-deprecating “Captain Sensible” image could be a winner.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 11h I wonder whether the aides allegedly "spooked" by the vaxx effectiveness data grasp that only of order 22% of adults are in the "only 2 doses & no infection" category?
I've just spent a bit of time looking at the booster data - that has sped along in the background. Think there'll be an inflection at 60 % coverage - which should be hit just after Christmas.
Throw in nearly 11 million infections and 47 million second doses.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 11h I wonder whether the aides allegedly "spooked" by the vaxx effectiveness data grasp that only of order 22% of adults are in the "only 2 doses & no infection" category?
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 · 2h Boris Johnson accused of flouting THREE Covid lockdown rules in late-night dinner date with wife Carrie last year. Imagine everyone's surprise
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
Like you I don't care too much whether people had parties a year ago and I might prefer discussion of Johnson's unfitness to govern revolved around things that have mattered and do matter.
Johnson's flaws go far beyond not being a family man. He has no concept of the truth, doesn't distinguish right from wrong, is utterly irresponsible, has a despotic tendency and is chaotic in his dealings. Nothing has changed in the past couple of weeks. All of this was obvious from the off to anyone paying attention and that cares.
I also don't think Johnson has made good calls in general. I can credit him with early energy on the vaccination programme, but not a lot else.
It seems to me the most important skill for a UKPM is to get a good and consistent team around them. Johnson's fear of rivals, frequent changes in direction depending on who has his ear, the lack of trust and confidence that builds up from his actions make it impossible for him to succeed in that. The only clearly successful cabinet minister, Sunak, was promoted in haste when his boss resigned over interference from no 10 at a time when Sunak was probably not seen as a threat.
The sub-sample size is only 115, but Opinium has Labour leading by 50% - 37% in seats gained by the Tories in 2019. Labour are also only just behind, by 38% - 35% in seats held by the Tories in 2019.
The subsample size is 425 unweighted and 420 weighted:
Watching Zahawi on Marr, he clearly doesn’t understand other factors on exponential growth. He suggests 1 million cases by the end of the month means 2 million three days later, then 4 three days after that. Keep going, we’re all dead by the 30th jan. Yes exponential rise at first, but it ALWAYS slows. Is he spinning a line to get the message across, or does he believe what he is saying/has been told?
Indeed. On the principle that I had two parents, four grand-parents and eight great-grand-parents it's fairly easy to demonstrate that the world's population at the time of the Pharaohs was greater than it is today.
Watching Zahawi on Marr, he clearly doesn’t understand other factors on exponential growth. He suggests 1 million cases by the end of the month means 2 million three days later, then 4 three days after that. Keep going, we’re all dead by the 30th jan. Yes exponential rise at first, but it ALWAYS slows. Is he spinning a line to get the message across, or does he believe what he is saying/has been told?
This 1m number is annoying. It seems to have been plucked out of thin air as it is a big round number.
A couple of days ago Sky reported the UKHSA as correcting it to 1m cumulative cases by the end of the month. Which is even weirder as that is fairly similar to current run rate and run rate for last few months in the first place.
Today we are back to ministers using it as 1m cases on a given day.
I think you are on the money. It a suspiciously large, easy number. I’m not saying it’s impossible for 31st dec having 1,000,000 new cases, but I think there is more chance of me winning the GP thus afternoon. There is a lack of clarity in the messaging. Assuming the ons figures are about right, probably around a million people in the U.K. would test positive today. But that’s not what they are saying (I think).
Balloux is astonished how fast SA rose and is now falling. Or appears to be.
I wonder whether Michael Levitt has done a gompertz curve for it yet?
What's interesting is the Omicron has a much shorter incubation period which could also be related to a much shorter infection time and it's seeming mildness in already immune people. Essentially people with immunity can recognise it and eradicate it before it becomes serious. Triple jabbed people have got enough antibodies to neutralise it completely.
Once again we come down to the same issue, the UK government is ramping Omicron to move the media agenda away from dodgy parties.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
This is how news stories develop. Its the "does it have legs" test - if the story is going to keep going it walks / runs along under its own steam pulling in new information and new angles.
The "gotcha" is that they have caught him forcing people to die alone / give birth alone / live miserably whilst he and his ignore the rules they have imposed and carry on like they are ordained by God to do whatever they like.
People are outraged. Viscerally. Which superheats whatever new angles and information break. Propelling the story along every faster. The only way out for the PM is for a bigger story to replace it, but as Covid is powering up and lockdown is in the wings waiting to come on, this one will run and run getting bigger and bigger.
Does it ever cross your mind that the way our media "develop" news stories is just a little bit sick and self interested, feeding on themselves and eventually eating themselves?
And does it cross your mind David that this is precisely what we the consumers of the media want.
Not seeing Socialist Worker or An Phoblact featured in What The Papers Say.
I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.
Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?
I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.
What about the possibility that someone might actually be fundamentally flawed and unfit to govern?
In an ideal world I would like to have a PM who is a good family man, who adores his wife and who lives by a strict moral code but, frankly, these are nice to haves. What we absolutely need in a leader is someone who gets the big calls right and steers us through difficult times. Boris's record on this is mixed, I don't dispute that for a moment. For every good call there is an unnecessary blunder, sometimes more than one.
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
The thing is that Johnson couldn't lie straight in bed. He is the Aldridge Prior of politics. Having a Prime Minister who is completely untrustworthy is highly damaging, even when he is telling the truth. If Johnson said that the sun will rise in the east, people would doubt it.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
The Chancellor who piled necessary taxes on NI instead of IT or a capital tax of some description? Who cut the benefits of the poorest to balance the books whilst protecting wealthy pensioners, again? I am a fan but no one in politics deserves adoration or unqualified admiration.
The Chancellor knows who the Tory base is (and of course he only ended the extension of a UC uplift he had given the poorest in the first place)
His job is to govern for the country as a whole and in particular for those who need the most help to live a decent life whether because of ill health, incapacity, afflictions etc. But he is not the worst and would make a good replacement if the current hysteria carries Boris away, which it might.
Comments
The same should really apply to microphones which should have hardware switches, unfortunately they don't.
Oh and it turns out you may need to put tape over LEDs:
https://twitter.com/mlsec/status/1469374394808123401
“The most significant issue here is the breach of trust.”
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1469960738492067840
“He is the worst possible leader at the worst possible time.”
#Marr
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1469960973557673993
Also, I'm surprised you put such a low value on probity in politicians tbh.
She has now removed that tweet, but WTF did she think she was doing?
I just searched twitter 'latest' for "bin bag" - there are well over 200 of them in just the last 5 minutes, with lots of those Nats who had seen Cherry's moronic lie.
And only about 3 of them saying 'no, it's a curtain'
But I am sick to death of this gotcha mentality in the media which means every little thing has to be the big thing and all sense of proportion is lost. There was a stunning interview by Justin Webb on Friday on the Today program where he was frothing that Labour was missing out on the chance to damage the PM by voting for new restrictions next week. The Labour Shadow gently tried to point out that what Labour was doing was supporting the recommendations of the CMO and the CSO and that just might be just a little more important than some political spat.
If I was editor of the Today program Webb would have done his last interview. It would have disgraced a red top chasing down a dodgy celebrity. For the BBC it was unacceptable.
https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1469961480082804738
Fake News...
The actual question was "What number of vaccines did Priti Patel state at her news conference?"
Paterson
Afghan dog evacuation
Partygate
...
The scandals just keep rolling in.
It's the Prime Minister's constant lying and dissembling.
After all, the PM has form for kicking people out or the party when they don't support him on a crucial vote.
(He won't though, will he?)
https://youtu.be/_zCnxt7myl4
Labour 48%
Conservatives 28%
Greens 8%
Reform 7%
Lib Dems 6%
others 3%
(Weighted sample = 420; 9-10 Dec)
Red Wall Con MPs worried yet?
When the bin bag was first mentioned last night I thought it looked a bit of a stretch but from the Mirror's photo I could see how people might interpret it as such.
https://twitter.com/robburl/status/1468524940282327041
Will Steve Baker approve of Carrie's wallpaper, or will we have to go through another flat refurbishment?
If it’s a nationwide group, all the more so.
The "gotcha" is that they have caught him forcing people to die alone / give birth alone / live miserably whilst he and his ignore the rules they have imposed and carry on like they are ordained by God to do whatever they like.
People are outraged. Viscerally. Which superheats whatever new angles and information break. Propelling the story along every faster. The only way out for the PM is for a bigger story to replace it, but as Covid is powering up and lockdown is in the wings waiting to come on, this one will run and run getting bigger and bigger.
Personally, I value the truth very highly. It's one of the reasons why I was never cut out for politics.
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1469926039237373952
@BallouxFrancois
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
If the Tories want a sound family man, sober and of sound morals they only need to look to number 11.
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1469965622310490114
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1469953766615097347
I expect the Lib Dems will win NS next week with a majority in the thousands, but then we're into Christmas and people will switch off from politics for a few weeks.
In January people won't be bothered about 'Last Christmas' parties anymore, they'll be bothered by what happened this Christmas and any possible Omicron restrictions in January. If the UK ends up back in lockdown then the PM must be ousted.
The UK should be almost uniquely well-placed to ride an Omicron wave without lockdown thanks to very high vaccine rates, booster rates, plus having the exit wave over the summer boosting natural immunity too. If we avoid an Omicron lockdown and other nations don't, then that could boost the government's popularity again prior to other possible news stories moving the agenda on like Article 16 being invoked.
For the bet I wouldn't take the bet either way as there's too many complications. If Boris really gets mired in worse he could jump before being pushed. Even if Boris recovers from this in January then it wouldn't pay out until potentially 2024 and there's always the possibility to have a VONC in 2023 on entirely unrelated matters.
But will they Keep the Faith?
I think an election winning coalition can be kept together with an us vs them attitude even if the leader of us is a proven and known incompetent liar.
I am old enough to remember when a minister was expected resigned for lying. I dont see why we should accept a lower standard today.
Boris isn't even the worst Prime Minister of the last three years, let alone postwar.
What do you know about his morals, soundness or familyness? All I know about him, is his relentless self promotion: government posters with his personal signature on them and so on. And let's not forget the implied deal under which he became CotE.
@ringwodian
51s
Is that a bin bag over a CCTV camera?
TRACK TEMP 34.7 °
AIR TEMP 25.7
WET/DRY 0
WIND SPEED 0.5 mps
HUMIDITY 54.6%
PRESSURE 1017.8 mBar
The only thing we are expecting to fall from the sky today, is the confetti in the cannons on the podium.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1469967317773828099
Nadhim Zahawi seems on the brink of arguing tinsel was standard No 10 office attire here #Marr
https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1469967488049942534
I’ll grant you that Boris is probably not engaged in a criminal conspiracy to subvert the electoral process. On the other hand, I’ve missed your complaints about the relentless trivia - prime ministerial photo ops, for instance - that the media subjects us to the rest of the time.
- Tell supporters lies they want to believe
- Rile up opponents in ways that play into messages he wants to get over to supporters
- Lie constantly so that "Trump lies" isn't a story
Having news sources that are aware they ought to try to be impartial is a blooming good thing.
Is he spinning a line to get the message across, or does he believe what he is saying/has been told?
I wouldn't vote for him, but he does at least have some personal integrity, a pretty rare thing in this cabinet. Leader replacements are usually to rectify the manifest defects of the outgoing one, and often over done as a result. I think Rishi will get it.
https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article256462541.html
The local health department of a rural southern Missouri county is halting its COVID-19 response efforts after Attorney General Eric Schmitt wrote agencies this week demanding they drop mitigation measures. The Laclede County Health Department, which serves a 35,000-person county northeast of Springfield, made the announcement in a Facebook post Thursday morning that it was suspending “all COVID-19 related work.” It will no longer investigate COVID cases, contact-trace, issue directives for exposed residents to quarantine themselves or make public announcements of case numbers and deaths. The department pointed residents to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and their personal doctors for directions on what to do about a COVID diagnosis. Cases have been on the uptick in Laclede County since mid-November, according to the state health department. Just 35% of the population is fully vaccinated
A couple of days ago Sky reported the UKHSA as correcting it to 1m cumulative cases by the end of the month. Which is even weirder as that is fairly similar to current run rate and run rate for last few months in the first place.
Today we are back to ministers using it as 1m cases on a given day.
Johnson's flaws go far beyond not being a family man. He has no concept of the truth, doesn't distinguish right from wrong, is utterly irresponsible, has a despotic tendency and is chaotic in his dealings. Nothing has changed in the past couple of weeks. All of this was obvious from the off to anyone paying attention and that cares.
I also don't think Johnson has made good calls in general. I can credit him with early energy on the vaccination programme, but not a lot else.
I wonder whether Michael Levitt has done a gompertz curve for it yet?
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
11h
I wonder whether the aides allegedly "spooked" by the vaxx effectiveness data grasp that only of order 22% of adults are in the "only 2 doses & no infection" category?
Throw in nearly 11 million infections and 47 million second doses.
Can I be spooked?
Julia Hartley-Brewer
@JuliaHB1
·
2h
Boris Johnson accused of flouting THREE Covid lockdown rules in late-night dinner date with wife Carrie last year. Imagine everyone's surprise
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1pef8g69b8/Times_Results_211210_VI.pdf
Once again we come down to the same issue, the UK government is ramping Omicron to move the media agenda away from dodgy parties.
Not seeing Socialist Worker or An Phoblact featured in What The Papers Say.
Same with the royals coverage.
It's what we want.