VONCing Boris – politicalbetting.com

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VONCing Boris – politicalbetting.com

I like this market from Smarkets because it allows you to bet on Boris Johnson’s future without getting dragged into the Boris Johnson exit markets where predicting the year of his exit which can be fraught with difficulties. This market is a simple will enough Conservative MPs write a letter to Sir Graham Brady to trigger a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson before the next general election.

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SeaShantyIrish2

Sir Winston Churchill, famous for inspiring Boris Johnson (among lesser achievements) equally famously clung on to the premiership once he'd finally it, that they came close to having to drag him bodily from No. 10. Took years to pry him loose.

It also was a job getting Ramsey Macdonald to give up the seals of office, even after Churchill sneered at him (from the government side of the House) as "the Boneless Wonder" on the Treasury bench.

Sir Robert Walpole was equally difficult to shift, though in his case it wasn't superannuation that got to him, but rather declining support for his policies; specifically his opposition to war with Spain and continued reluctance once the War of Jenkin's Ear began.

There may be other examples, but these are the best I can conjure up after a long day of idle punditry. EDIT - And pedantry.

One thing about Johnson, he might just think that he could do what Lloyd George wanted to do: when you get chucked out, keep on fighting and get back in.

Disraeli did it, ditto Gladstone, Baldwin, Macdonald, Churchill, Wilson. Grover Cleveland and Valdimir Putin did it, and Donald Trump's working on it.

So why not Boris Johnson? So might Boris Johnson think?

Even if so, he'll tend to cling to (and yearn for) power like a lamprey. Or a magnetic mine.

FrancisUrquhart

gone in the morning.....he'll be gone in the morning.....gone in the morning....he'll be gone in the morrrrrrrrninggggg....

ping

FrancisUrquhart said:

gone in the morning.....he'll be gone in the morning.....gone in the morning....he'll be gone in the morrrrrrrrninggggg....

If you keep posting that, you’ll eventually be correct

StuartDickson

The triumph of hope over experience.

I just can’t see Johnson going voluntarily, and the polling numbers are nowhere near bad enough to trigger a large rebellion. A Lib Dem by election gain would be shrugged off easily, as they so often have been before. A Hold will be spun as a BJ triumph in the current climate.

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

What he just cannot afford to do is deliver gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. Again. It’s just not funny anymore.

If I was a fan of Smarkets (I’m not) I’d be backing No.

Nigelb

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Sir Winston Churchill, famous for inspiring Boris Johnson (among lesser achievements) equally famously clung on to the premiership once he'd finally it, that they came close to having to drag him bodily from No. 10. Took years to pry him loose.

It also was a job getting Ramsey Macdonald to give up the seals of office, even after Churchill sneered at him (from the government side of the House) as "the Boneless Wonder" on the Treasury bench.

Sir Robert Walpole was equally difficult to shift, though in his case it wasn't superannuation that got to him, but rather declining support for his policies; specifically his opposition to war with Spain and continued reluctance once the War of Jenkin's Ear began.

There may be other examples, but these are the best I can conjure up after a long day of idle punditry. EDIT - And pedantry.

One thing about Johnson, he might just think that he could do what Lloyd George wanted to do: when you get chucked out, keep on fighting and get back in.

Disraeli did it, ditto Gladstone, Baldwin, Macdonald, Churchill, Wilson. Grover Cleveland and Valdimir Putin did it, and Donald Trump's working on it.

So why not Boris Johnson? So might Boris Johnson think?

Even if so, he'll tend to cling to (and yearn for) power like a lamprey. Or a magnetic mine.

I don’t think he has the patience to do anything like that.
I can see him being a limpet, but not one which reattaches.

Dura_Ace

StuartDickson said:

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

I do. He can't.

He isn't going to become a completely different person in his late 50s. Frankly, why should he? The tories are minded to indulge his dishonesty, laziness and incompetence for a good while yet.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Alas, the title made me wonder if it had happened.

Anyway, to finish off my coffee and peruse the markets.

Jonathan

Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jonathan, they put him there to win, which he did in 2019, and because they moronically failed to learn the blazing inferno of an obvious lesson that was Corbyn with Labour.

murali_s

Morning. Is the disingenuous fat philanderer in post still?

Jonathan

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, they put him there to win, which he did in 2019, and because they moronically failed to learn the blazing inferno of an obvious lesson that was Corbyn with Labour.

In order to win many Tories turned a blind eye to Boris’ weaknesses that were plain to see. They gulped down the snake oil and went all in. The point is that they’re fully committed. It’s hard to hold their hands up say they got it wrong. So imo they’ll follow their leader and bend the truth to find a justification to stick with him.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jonathan, I suspect they will, but the Christmas Party does present a valid pretext (because voters are livid about it) of axing him.

They should take the opportunity, if only for reasons of self-interest. I suspect they won't.

Morris_Dancer

F1: no idea what to bet on. Hmm...

noneoftheabove

Jonathan said:

Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.

To survive he needs to do two things:

Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.

Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.

I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.

IanB2

Observer editorial : Every month of Boris Johnson’s premiership brings a new reminder of his rank unfitness for office. As the country is on the verge of an Omicron wave that could pose a profound challenge to the NHS, the government is mired in a deep political crisis entirely of its own making, after a week in which yet more of Johnson’s hypocrisy and corruption have been exposed.

It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis. Johnson lacks any shred of integrity, is driven by ego and self-interest and has been prepared to mislead voters over and over again. He is incompetent and embodies the entitled politician who sees politics as a game rather than a duty. He is utterly unfit to govern Britain.

moonshine

Jonathan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, they put him there to win, which he did in 2019, and because they moronically failed to learn the blazing inferno of an obvious lesson that was Corbyn with Labour.

In order to win many Tories turned a blind eye to Boris’ weaknesses that were plain to see. They gulped down the snake oil and went all in. The point is that they’re fully committed. It’s hard to hold their hands up say they got it wrong. So imo they’ll follow their leader and bend the truth to find a justification to stick with him.

He’d be finished inside an afternoon if Gove went on telly and said “turns out I got it right the first time”.

Stocky

Good morning.

I agree with the header and the footnote. Got a bit at 150/1 this morning (W Hills) Harper for Next PM.

Also, I think Sunak is too short (don't) for Next PM and I've laid him a bit this morning at 3.65

ThomasNashe

Stocky said:

Good morning.

I agree with the header and the footnote. Got a bit at 150/1 this morning (W Hills) Harper for Next PM.

Also, I think Sunak is too short (don't) for Next PM and I've laid him a bit this morning at 3.65

Agreed. I think the value probably lies with Hunt. If Johnson is ditched - and I still think that's a big if - the Tories in Parliament will surely be looking for the candidate least like him.

Stocky

ThomasNashe said:

Stocky said:

Good morning.

I agree with the header and the footnote. Got a bit at 150/1 this morning (W Hills) Harper for Next PM.

Also, I think Sunak is too short (don't) for Next PM and I've laid him a bit this morning at 3.65

Agreed. I think the value probably lies with Hunt. If Johnson is ditched - and I still think that's a big if - the Tories in Parliament will surely be looking for the candidate least like him.

Plus the is the real chance that Boris ploughs on and loses to Starmer, so laying Sunak for next PM wins in that scenario too.

IanB2

A former Cabinet Minister agreed that the situation was ‘serious’, saying: ‘The Red Wallers have protected Boris because they think they owe their seats to him, but he now risks losing them because they are starting to feel that he is a liability, not an asset.

‘Boris is a fair-weather PM – fine when things are going well, less so in difficult times.

‘If he is going to be a happy Captain Kirk, he needs a lot of serious Spocks around him to steer the ship away from the rocks.

‘And I don’t see many pointy-eared people in No10 just now.’

Stuartinromford

noneoftheabove said:

Jonathan said:

Would be very surprised if Boris goes despite him breaking the rules. If the Tory party and its voters were particularly concerned about integrity, Boris would not have made it to number ten in the first place. Arguably they put him there to break things, rules etc.

To survive he needs to do two things:

Get through the next month. Easiest option is to lockdown making that the news rather than him. Otherwise could just take the paternity leave route which might work as well.

Reframe a couple of major issues so the Tory vote feel it is Boris and them vs the enemy. France is the most obvious opportunity for this.

I just don't buy that people are surprised and just learning that the PM is a liar and cheat. They voted for him because they were quite happy with a liar and cheat as long as he was on their side. It is that feeling of being on their side he needs to restore, and past experience suggests that is one thing is he actually very good at.

It's the difference between knowing intellectually that Boris will happily sleep around despite being married and being the one he cheats on.

And at least some of the time, Johnson's solution to being found out is to move on to a younger, more glamorous version.

America, you've been warned.

Jonathan

IanB2 said:

A former Cabinet Minister agreed that the situation was ‘serious’, saying: ‘The Red Wallers have protected Boris because they think they owe their seats to him, but he now risks losing them because they are starting to feel that he is a liability, not an asset.

‘Boris is a fair-weather PM – fine when things are going well, less so in difficult times.

‘If he is going to be a happy Captain Kirk, he needs a lot of serious Spocks around him to steer the ship away from the rocks.

‘And I don’t see many pointy-eared people in No10 just now.’

Lots of ‘cling ons’. It again it’s own faul. Boris got rid of anyone that threatened him.

JonWC

I believe that Smarkets have got it slightly wrong: the vote called is a vote of confidence, not a vote of no confidence. If I'm right there will technically not be one whatever Tory MPs do.

It's a pedantic point but there will be many on this site who have learned the perils of imprecise political markets the hard way.

Foxy

StuartDickson said:

The triumph of hope over experience.

I just can’t see Johnson going voluntarily, and the polling numbers are nowhere near bad enough to trigger a large rebellion. A Lib Dem by election gain would be shrugged off easily, as they so often have been before. A Hold will be spun as a BJ triumph in the current climate.

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

What he just cannot afford to do is deliver gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. Again. It’s just not funny anymore.

If I was a fan of Smarkets (I’m not) I’d be backing No.

I think it likely there is a VONC, but that he survives it, and that means a year of safety. That would push a further VONC very close to a GE.

Timing is everything in comedy.

Morris_Dancer

Betting Post

F1: backed Norris to be best of the rest at 2.6. Not the most heroic of bets and may not come off but I didn't see anything that leapt out at me.

https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/12/abu-dhabi-pre-race-2021.html

Fysics_Teacher

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

The triumph of hope over experience.

I just can’t see Johnson going voluntarily, and the polling numbers are nowhere near bad enough to trigger a large rebellion. A Lib Dem by election gain would be shrugged off easily, as they so often have been before. A Hold will be spun as a BJ triumph in the current climate.

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

What he just cannot afford to do is deliver gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. Again. It’s just not funny anymore.

If I was a fan of Smarkets (I’m not) I’d be backing No.

I think it likely there is a VONC, but that he survives it, and that means a year of safety. That would push a further VONC very close to a GE.

Timing is everything in comedy.

Surviving a VONC did not protect May for a year. If he loses the support of the parliamentary party he will be out.

Jonathan

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

The triumph of hope over experience.

I just can’t see Johnson going voluntarily, and the polling numbers are nowhere near bad enough to trigger a large rebellion. A Lib Dem by election gain would be shrugged off easily, as they so often have been before. A Hold will be spun as a BJ triumph in the current climate.

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

What he just cannot afford to do is deliver gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. Again. It’s just not funny anymore.

If I was a fan of Smarkets (I’m not) I’d be backing No.

I think it likely there is a VONC, but that he survives it, and that means a year of safety. That would push a further VONC very close to a GE.

Timing is everything in comedy.

Nothing more likely to shore up Boris than the opposition overplaying the hand. Blackford might have got headlines, but in calling for Boris’ resignation he made it far harder for Tories to break cover. The opposition needs to place the traps and wait. So far Starmer is playing it well.

Stuartinromford

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

The triumph of hope over experience.

I just can’t see Johnson going voluntarily, and the polling numbers are nowhere near bad enough to trigger a large rebellion. A Lib Dem by election gain would be shrugged off easily, as they so often have been before. A Hold will be spun as a BJ triumph in the current climate.

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

What he just cannot afford to do is deliver gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. Again. It’s just not funny anymore.

If I was a fan of Smarkets (I’m not) I’d be backing No.

I think it likely there is a VONC, but that he survives it, and that means a year of safety. That would push a further VONC very close to a GE.

Timing is everything in comedy.

Nothing more likely to shore up Boris than the opposition overplaying the hand. Blackford might have got headlines, but in calling for Boris’ resignation he made it far harder for Tories to break cover. The opposition needs to place the traps and wait. So far Starmer is playing it well.

Whilst it's in the national interest for BoJo to go pronto, it's in the partisan interest of the opposition for him to be there in 2024.

And @foxy has solved the problem of the complacency-despair gap. The scriptwriters are spoiling us:

Now-December 2022: Complacency
December 2022: A VONC that BoJo survives
December 2022-3: BoJo is immune
December 2023-4: Too late, too far behind, better to rebuild in opposition...

It's all a bit unlikely, but that's how Jeffrey Archer would plot it.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jonathan, unless the Opposition views the fool of Number Ten as an asset.

Stocky

JonWC said:

I believe that Smarkets have got it slightly wrong: the vote called is a vote of confidence, not a vote of no confidence. If I'm right there will technically not be one whatever Tory MPs do.

It's a pedantic point but there will be many on this site who have learned the perils of imprecise political markets the hard way.

That's deliciously pedantic - well done!

moonshine

Fysics_Teacher said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

The triumph of hope over experience.

I just can’t see Johnson going voluntarily, and the polling numbers are nowhere near bad enough to trigger a large rebellion. A Lib Dem by election gain would be shrugged off easily, as they so often have been before. A Hold will be spun as a BJ triumph in the current climate.

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

What he just cannot afford to do is deliver gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. Again. It’s just not funny anymore.

If I was a fan of Smarkets (I’m not) I’d be backing No.

I think it likely there is a VONC, but that he survives it, and that means a year of safety. That would push a further VONC very close to a GE.

Timing is everything in comedy.

Surviving a VONC did not protect May for a year. If he loses the support of the parliamentary party he will be out.

The more I think about it the more I reckon Gove will be the assassin. No love lost there obvs. But Gove isn’t a realistic leadership contender, given the personal scrutiny a campaign would bring. And he doesn’t have whatshername from the Daily Mail pushing him into it this time either. I could well imagine him striking a deal with Sunak to be his Chancellor to get the bullet fired.

May clung on to power when Cabinet big beast Brexiteers walked out, because half the parliamentary party were cheering their departure. Quite a different circumstance this time around. One pointed resignation speech and BoJo is done.

Scott_xP

moonshine said:

May clung on to power when Cabinet big beast Brexiteers walked out, because half the parliamentary party were cheering their departure. Quite a different circumstance this time around. One pointed resignation speech and BoJo is done.

I can't remember who said it, but if Truss really wants the job she would resign today

OldKingCole

Good morning everyone. Definitely warmer this morning, in several senses.

I suspect there won't be a VONC triggered until after Friday morning, and the result inn Shropshire is known. And after that Parliament won't sitting until the New Year. Over Christmas, then there won't be wars but there will be rumours of wars and when Parliament reassembles it'll be what's in those rumours and what happens in the second week of January that decides the shape of politics early in 2022.

Jonathan

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, unless the Opposition views the fool of Number Ten as an asset.

It’s an interesting question. The consequences of Boris leaving are hard to predict.

On the one hand he’s unfit to pm and does a lot of harm an should go. We will all be better off with someone who can govern competently.

Electorally he locked the faragists into the Conservatives party. If Boris goes, I suspect they will unhook their wagon and rally around Nigel again. Short term that’s probably beneficial, we need the Conservatives to be vaguely sensible and conservative. In the long term could be catastrophic if the Faragists manage to create a movement unmoderated and extreme.

Time will tell.

moonshine

Jonathan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, unless the Opposition views the fool of Number Ten as an asset.

It’s an interesting question. The consequences of Boris leaving are hard to predict.

On the one hand he’s unfit to pm and does a lot of harm an should go. We will all be better off with someone who can govern competently.

Electorally he locked the faragists into the Conservatives party. If Boris goes, I suspect they will unhook their wagon and rally around Nigel again. Short term that’s probably beneficial, we need the Conservatives to be vaguely sensible and conservative. In the long term could be catastrophic if the Faragists manage to create a movement unmoderated and extreme.

Time will tell.

Faragist politics was dead upon the delivery of Brexit. It has been resuscitated by the politics of covid. If I am right and omicron is a storm in a teacup*, there will only be a totemic policy for Faragists to rally around if the Tory government continues with its precautionary mindset. Which a sensible new leader would recognise and hence jettison.

Further, a new leader may find a way to reset the conversation with France and take the boat people off the front pages.

Most likely many of those voters return to political apathy and stay away. They will of course be replaced to some extent by Labour moderates who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Swinson who stayed away last time. Someone here will no doubt have the numbers to back or refute this intuition.

* refer to the biggest South African sundays today and compare and contrast the coverage / prominence given to omicron to here.

DecrepiterJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

Betting Post

F1: backed Norris to be best of the rest at 2.6. Not the most heroic of bets and may not come off but I didn't see anything that leapt out at me.

https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/12/abu-dhabi-pre-race-2021.html

It might be worth a glance at the SPotY markets as some sort of proxy for Lewis (5/4 without Emma Raducanu at Ladbrokes and Corals, and 9/1 outright with Betway and Paddy Power) and indeed Max Verstappen who is 5/1 (in from 14/1 yesterday) in a thin Betfair market for the Overseas award.

StuartDickson

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: no idea what to bet on. Hmm...

I bet that a bunch of adult men will behave like toddlers. They’ll be publicly calling for the lynching of foreigners before the day is out.

CarlottaVance

On Wednesday, as the government reeled from the Allegra Stratton video, ministers began pulling out of media appearances.

Enter stage left: Matt Hancock

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1469921031905329152?s=20

Scott_xP

Morning; a thread from ex-Cameron/May era no 10 staffer on shifting political landscape
https://twitter.com/nihargrave/status/1469663533356965889

Foxy

Scott_xP said:

moonshine said:

May clung on to power when Cabinet big beast Brexiteers walked out, because half the parliamentary party were cheering their departure. Quite a different circumstance this time around. One pointed resignation speech and BoJo is done.

I can't remember who said it, but if Truss really wants the job she would resign today

I don't think so. She is enjoying Fun With Flags too much. She just wouldn't get to do the gushing photo-stunts on the back benches.

The only backbencher with a serious chance is Hunt.

Scott_xP

CarlottaVance said:

On Wednesday, as the government reeled from the Allegra Stratton video, ministers began pulling out of media appearances.

Enter stage left: Matt Hancock

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1469921031905329152?s=20

...

DecrepiterJohnL

murali_s said:

Morning. Is the disingenuous fat philanderer in post still?

He says he is but can Boris be taken at his word?

BlancheLivermore

One thing that's rather tickled me about the latest Downing St "party" photos is the number of dolts on twitter who think there's a black bin bag being used to cover a CCTV camera in the corner of the picture.

Do they really believe that that would be the limit of Downing St security's measures to deal with cameras in the office - "Just cover 'em all in bin bags, that'll do the trick lovely"?

For another thing; it's a curtain, not a bin bag.

Nemtynakht

Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.

Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction

Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore

Finally I think he is capable of describing the 'parties' in a way that means people would understand. I don't know much about these so called parties as it seems fairly dubious to me, and much less serious than the flat refurbishment fraud, but I work in the civil service and in my wider team there are people who have had to be on site for the entire pandemic. Do I think that they might have took in some mince pies and worn Christmas jumpers and done something a bit fun whilst it was quieter just before Christmas? I can easily see how it would happen and I think Boris could easily spin the story in a positive light provided that only people who would normally be working were there. I think this is much more explicable than going to Barnard Castle.

Scott_xP

Foxy said:

I don't think so. She is enjoying Fun With Flags too much. She just wouldn't get to do the gushing photo-stunts on the back benches.

That's the point.

Resigning today forces BoZo out which creates a vacancy...

darkage

StuartDickson said:

The triumph of hope over experience.

I just can’t see Johnson going voluntarily, and the polling numbers are nowhere near bad enough to trigger a large rebellion. A Lib Dem by election gain would be shrugged off easily, as they so often have been before. A Hold will be spun as a BJ triumph in the current climate.

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

What he just cannot afford to do is deliver gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. Again. It’s just not funny anymore.

If I was a fan of Smarkets (I’m not) I’d be backing No.

None of that will happen though. Remember his post hospitalisation health improvement plan? He is what he is. He won't suddenly transform in to Gordon Brown or David Cameron.

It really looks from the outside as if the problem at No.10 is fundamentally rooted in his relationship with his wife. She appears to have forced him in to a potential major scandal over the flat, is calling the shots over who the advisors are in No.10, and has her own agenda that is driving a lot of government policy.

It doesn't seem like he can correct this, and the lack of decent advisors and chaos in No.10 seems to be leading to mistake after mistake - the corruption stuff was avoidable, so was this thing about the staff parties. If the polls don't recover and fall further, then the way it ends is through him being removed by Conservative MPs. I can't see him going of his own accord.

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

murali_s said:

Morning. Is the disingenuous fat philanderer in post still?

He says he is but can Boris be taken at his word?

Perhaps the solution is that he's left physically in 10 Downing Street and everyone tells him he's PM and lockdown is continuing while somebody sane and intelligent else is PM?

tlg86

Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...

DecrepiterJohnL

Dura_Ace said:

StuartDickson said:

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

I do. He can't.

He isn't going to become a completely different person in his late 50s. Frankly, why should he? The tories are minded to indulge his dishonesty, laziness and incompetence for a good while yet.

The Mail on Sunday leads on Boris blaming the BBC for partygate. If the Prime Minister did have any focus or grasp of detail, he might remember it was ITV that broke the story.

Jonathan

moonshine said:

Jonathan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, unless the Opposition views the fool of Number Ten as an asset.

It’s an interesting question. The consequences of Boris leaving are hard to predict.

On the one hand he’s unfit to pm and does a lot of harm an should go. We will all be better off with someone who can govern competently.

Electorally he locked the faragists into the Conservatives party. If Boris goes, I suspect they will unhook their wagon and rally around Nigel again. Short term that’s probably beneficial, we need the Conservatives to be vaguely sensible and conservative. In the long term could be catastrophic if the Faragists manage to create a movement unmoderated and extreme.

Time will tell.

Faragist politics was dead upon the delivery of Brexit. It has been resuscitated by the politics of covid. If I am right and omicron is a storm in a teacup*, there will only be a totemic policy for Faragists to rally around if the Tory government continues with its precautionary mindset. Which a sensible new leader would recognise and hence jettison.

Further, a new leader may find a way to reset the conversation with France and take the boat people off the front pages.

Most likely many of those voters return to political apathy and stay away. They will of course be replaced to some extent by Labour moderates who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Swinson who stayed away last time. Someone here will no doubt have the numbers to back or refute this intuition.

* refer to the biggest South African sundays today and compare and contrast the coverage / prominence given to omicron to here.

My view is that you are unfortunately wrong about populist Faragist politics. The forces that made Brexit possible are still there. It was never just about Brexit and Brexit didn’t lance the boil. You see this playing out in the states and Europe , where Brexit isn’t a thing. Arguably Brexit just encourages this movement.

ydoethur

Nemtynakht said:

Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.

Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction

Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore

Half a second. Does that mean Raab is in charge just as Omicron and its cheerleaders take centre stage?

Foxy

BlancheLivermore said:

One thing that's rather tickled me about the latest Downing St "party" photos is the number of dolts on twitter who think there's a black bin bag being used to cover a CCTV camera in the corner of the picture.

Do they really believe that that would be the limit of Downing St security's measures to deal with cameras in the office - "Just cover 'em all in bin bags, that'll do the trick lovely"?

For another thing; it's a curtain, not a bin bag.

Yes it just looks to be naff curtains.

https://twitter.com/chrismiller_uk/status/1469809976822706182?t=3uBF_tqMEoEXcEkcXGAFVg&s=19

Foxy

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

I don't think so. She is enjoying Fun With Flags too much. She just wouldn't get to do the gushing photo-stunts on the back benches.

That's the point.

Resigning today forces BoZo out which creates a vacancy...

It wouldn't force him out, and the vacancy would be at the FCO.

Stuartinromford

Jonathan said:

moonshine said:

Jonathan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, unless the Opposition views the fool of Number Ten as an asset.

It’s an interesting question. The consequences of Boris leaving are hard to predict.

On the one hand he’s unfit to pm and does a lot of harm an should go. We will all be better off with someone who can govern competently.

Electorally he locked the faragists into the Conservatives party. If Boris goes, I suspect they will unhook their wagon and rally around Nigel again. Short term that’s probably beneficial, we need the Conservatives to be vaguely sensible and conservative. In the long term could be catastrophic if the Faragists manage to create a movement unmoderated and extreme.

Time will tell.

Faragist politics was dead upon the delivery of Brexit. It has been resuscitated by the politics of covid. If I am right and omicron is a storm in a teacup*, there will only be a totemic policy for Faragists to rally around if the Tory government continues with its precautionary mindset. Which a sensible new leader would recognise and hence jettison.

Further, a new leader may find a way to reset the conversation with France and take the boat people off the front pages.

Most likely many of those voters return to political apathy and stay away. They will of course be replaced to some extent by Labour moderates who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Swinson who stayed away last time. Someone here will no doubt have the numbers to back or refute this intuition.

* refer to the biggest South African sundays today and compare and contrast the coverage / prominence given to omicron to here.

My view is that you are unfortunately wrong about populist Faragist politics. The forces that made Brexit possible are still there. It was never just about Brexit and Brexit didn’t lance the boil. You see this playing out in the states and Europe , where Brexit isn’t a thing. Arguably Brexit just encourages this movement.

A lot of the Brexit vote wasn't really about the EU- that was just what copped the blame for the world changing in ways that many people didn't like. The aim was to take back control, sure, but to use that control to make things right again.

Enacted Brexit can't do that- maybe nothing can. So the next question is what the next target will be.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

I don't think so. She is enjoying Fun With Flags too much. She just wouldn't get to do the gushing photo-stunts on the back benches.

That's the point.

Resigning today forces BoZo out which creates a vacancy...

It wouldn't force him out, and the vacancy would be at the FCO.

When was the last time a cabinet minister resigning both precipitated the collapse of the government and them getting the top job?

I want to say Lloyd George 1916.

Scott_xP

Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi says the PM will be saying more about Omicron "later today"
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1469950628344569856

OldKingCole

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Dura_Ace said:

StuartDickson said:

The biggest threat to Boris Johnson’s premiership is Boris Johnson. He has his fate in his own hands. He needs to simply shut up for a while, preferably several months. Lose weight, train, total alcohol abstinence. He needs to roll up his sleeves and get a grip on his work: read the paperwork, do the homework: focus single-mindedly on the job. Can he do it? I don’t know.

I do. He can't.

He isn't going to become a completely different person in his late 50s. Frankly, why should he? The tories are minded to indulge his dishonesty, laziness and incompetence for a good while yet.

The Mail on Sunday leads on Boris blaming the BBC for partygate. If the Prime Minister did have any focus or grasp of detail, he might remember it was ITV that broke the story.

Cue a Nadine Dorries swingeing attack on the BBC?

CarlottaVance

BORIS Johnson’s former top adviser has claimed that senior SNP figures have “made quietly clear” to the UK Government that they would be happy if a referendum on independence didn't take place before 2024.

Dominic Cummings, who quit as the Prime Minister’s top adviser last year, has suggested Nicola Sturgeon “just wants to be boss up there and whinge” instead of being serious about holding a re-run of the 2014 vote on independence.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19777184.dominic-cummings-claims-nicola-sturgeon-doesnt-want-indyref2-2024/

BlancheLivermore

It's never going to be as big as Ed Balls Day..

But today is Odd Shoes Day

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Romford, copped the blame?

How often did ostensibly pro-EU politicians blame it for things?

Not to mention our politicians willingly throwing away things like vetoes, half the rebate, and a referendum promise on Lisbon. Had they, and the EU, not treated the electorate with contempt the favour would not have been returned (still amazed we voted to leave at all).

Scott_xP

Foxy said:

It wouldn't force him out, and the vacancy would be at the FCO.

She has already rolled the pitch with the story that the FCO were too busy to party last year.

If BoZo loses the vote on Tuesday, he doesn't have the support of his party.

If he loses on Thursday, he doesn't have the support of voters.

If Truss quits, he doesn't have the support of his cabinet.

How could he stay in post?

DecrepiterJohnL

F1 stars including Lewis Hamilton back COVID-19 vaccine drive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnbL0vdUnzM
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/f1-stars-including-lewis-hamilton-back-covid-19-vaccine-drive

ydoethur

BlancheLivermore said:

It's never going to be as big as Ed Balls Day..

But today is Odd Shoes Day

@Beibheirli_C leaves us again in disgust...

Roger

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:

moonshine said:

Jonathan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, unless the Opposition views the fool of Number Ten as an asset.

It’s an interesting question. The consequences of Boris leaving are hard to predict.

On the one hand he’s unfit to pm and does a lot of harm an should go. We will all be better off with someone who can govern competently.

Electorally he locked the faragists into the Conservatives party. If Boris goes, I suspect they will unhook their wagon and rally around Nigel again. Short term that’s probably beneficial, we need the Conservatives to be vaguely sensible and conservative. In the long term could be catastrophic if the Faragists manage to create a movement unmoderated and extreme.

Time will tell.

Faragist politics was dead upon the delivery of Brexit. It has been resuscitated by the politics of covid. If I am right and omicron is a storm in a teacup*, there will only be a totemic policy for Faragists to rally around if the Tory government continues with its precautionary mindset. Which a sensible new leader would recognise and hence jettison.

Further, a new leader may find a way to reset the conversation with France and take the boat people off the front pages.

Most likely many of those voters return to political apathy and stay away. They will of course be replaced to some extent by Labour moderates who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Swinson who stayed away last time. Someone here will no doubt have the numbers to back or refute this intuition.

* refer to the biggest South African sundays today and compare and contrast the coverage / prominence given to omicron to here.

My view is that you are unfortunately wrong about populist Faragist politics. The forces that made Brexit possible are still there. It was never just about Brexit and Brexit didn’t lance the boil. You see this playing out in the states and Europe , where Brexit isn’t a thing. Arguably Brexit just encourages this movement.

A lot of the Brexit vote wasn't really about the EU- that was just what copped the blame for the world changing in ways that many people didn't like. The aim was to take back control, sure, but to use that control to make things right again.

Enacted Brexit can't do that- maybe nothing can. So the next question is what the next target will be.

Privilege. The 'born to rule'. Poor Allegra's unwitting (and rather pleasant) smile told a story that is easy to latch onto.

Dura_Ace

tlg86 said:

Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...

I did a stint on secondment in the RAF. During that time I knew SB by reputation but not personally. That reputation was stellar. He was the unmatched expert on the Adour engine and universally held to be a good bloke.

Bear in mind what it takes me to write something positive about an individual who is both RAF AND a tory.

Benpointer

BlancheLivermore said:

It's never going to be as big as Ed Balls Day..

But today is Odd Shoes Day

Sounds right up TSE street - he often wears some pretty odd shoes.

Scott_xP

The BoZo fanbois on PB will be cheered this morning that their attempts to dismiss BoZo being caught in a lie are now the official Government line...

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

I don't think so. She is enjoying Fun With Flags too much. She just wouldn't get to do the gushing photo-stunts on the back benches.

That's the point.

Resigning today forces BoZo out which creates a vacancy...

It wouldn't force him out, and the vacancy would be at the FCO.

When was the last time a cabinet minister resigning both precipitated the collapse of the government and them getting the top job?

I want to say Lloyd George 1916.

2018 surely, when Johnson resigned as Foreign Secretary. Ok it took him a year to complete the coup but it still worked for him.

Scott_xP

Boris wants to be remembered as the new Churchill. If this carries on he'll be remembered as the new Nixon > Mail On Sunday > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10299841/DAN-HODGES-Boris-Johnson-heir-Churchill-Hes-beginning-look-like-Tricky-Dicky.html

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

I don't think so. She is enjoying Fun With Flags too much. She just wouldn't get to do the gushing photo-stunts on the back benches.

That's the point.

Resigning today forces BoZo out which creates a vacancy...

It wouldn't force him out, and the vacancy would be at the FCO.

When was the last time a cabinet minister resigning both precipitated the collapse of the government and them getting the top job?

I want to say Lloyd George 1916.

2018 surely, when Johnson resigned as Foreign Secretary. Ok it took him a year to complete the coup but it still worked for him.

It didn't 'precipitate' the collapse of the government. With DLlG it was 48 hours door to door, including Bonar Law's abortive attempt to form a government.

Carnyx

Benpointer said:

BlancheLivermore said:

It's never going to be as big as Ed Balls Day..

But today is Odd Shoes Day

Sounds right up TSE street - he often wears some pretty odd shoes.

TSE could epater les bourgeois twice over at the same time.

DavidL

I am watching Impeachment on BBC Iplayer at the moment. It is a familiar tale about people trying to bring down someone they hated but could not beat electorally by exploiting foibles and trying to pretend that they demonstrated fundamental flaws or an unfitness to govern or whatever else they used to justify their odious behaviour.

Things really haven't changed in the last 25 years, have they?

I have to say that Sarah Poulson is absolutely brilliant as Linda Tripp. The most repulsive, vile and self interested character I have seen since GoT.

ydoethur

One point on the header - it is pretty well inconceivable that Johnson will match Cameron's six years in office. That's going to hurt him anyway.

Remember, karma's only a bitch if you are.

BlancheLivermore

Prominent doltage -

@joannaccherry
It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512

Nemtynakht

ydoethur said:

Nemtynakht said:

Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.

Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction

Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore

Half a second. Does that mean Raab is in charge just as Omicron and its cheerleaders take centre stage?

And that highlights two more things in his favour - no obvious Successor. Whilst rivals at the top of the party will always manoeuvring there doesn't seem to be an obvious out and out contender, although I suppose Truss, Javid and Hunt jump to mind. Could they deliver the votes in the expanded Tory voting area? Second is that the Labour politicians are hardly popular - I don't think that Starmer or Rayner are popular, and the Labour civil war has lead to a bunch of non entities being shadow ministers for the last 18 months.

DougSeal

StuartDickson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: no idea what to bet on. Hmm...

I bet that a bunch of adult men will behave like toddlers. They’ll be publicly calling for the lynching of foreigners before the day is out.

Non sequitur of the year there.

noneoftheabove

Nemtynakht said:

Whilst it seems obvious that Boris is running out of road, I do think there are a number of things that fall in his favour.

Firstly I think he would be better off not being prime minister. This is both literally, and he would welcome the chance to make vast sums on the back of his time as PM and figuratively in as much as his skills seem better suited elsewhere. I think this gives him a less desperate edge than May who seemed to be unable to move in any direction

Secondly he is lucky and is able to take paternity leave over the quieter Christmas period, which could take some of the sting out and let other serious stories come to the fore

Finally I think he is capable of describing the 'parties' in a way that means people would understand. I don't know much about these so called parties as it seems fairly dubious to me, and much less serious than the flat refurbishment fraud, but I work in the civil service and in my wider team there are people who have had to be on site for the entire pandemic. Do I think that they might have took in some mince pies and worn Christmas jumpers and done something a bit fun whilst it was quieter just before Christmas? I can easily see how it would happen and I think Boris could easily spin the story in a positive light provided that only people who would normally be working were there. I think this is much more explicable than going to Barnard Castle.

If he were capable of saying sorry when caught red handed this would all have gone away.

A first response of "At number 10 we were all working incredibly hard last year, often staying late into the evening and eating here. We apologise if any intended business meetings progressed into what others could understand as a party, and will make sure we do better in future", would have made it a one or two day story instead of the enduring one it is due to the lying and taking us for fools.

DougSeal

Dura_Ace said:

tlg86 said:

Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...

I did a stint on secondment in the RAF. During that time I knew SB by reputation but not personally. That reputation was stellar. He was the unmatched expert on the Adour engine and universally held to be a good bloke.

Bear in mind what it takes me to write something positive about an individual who is both RAF AND a tory.

Quite. I was waiting for the sting in the tail that never came. Surprising post of the year.

ThomasNashe

Roger said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:

moonshine said:

Jonathan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, unless the Opposition views the fool of Number Ten as an asset.

It’s an interesting question. The consequences of Boris leaving are hard to predict.

On the one hand he’s unfit to pm and does a lot of harm an should go. We will all be better off with someone who can govern competently.

Electorally he locked the faragists into the Conservatives party. If Boris goes, I suspect they will unhook their wagon and rally around Nigel again. Short term that’s probably beneficial, we need the Conservatives to be vaguely sensible and conservative. In the long term could be catastrophic if the Faragists manage to create a movement unmoderated and extreme.

Time will tell.

Faragist politics was dead upon the delivery of Brexit. It has been resuscitated by the politics of covid. If I am right and omicron is a storm in a teacup*, there will only be a totemic policy for Faragists to rally around if the Tory government continues with its precautionary mindset. Which a sensible new leader would recognise and hence jettison.

Further, a new leader may find a way to reset the conversation with France and take the boat people off the front pages.

Most likely many of those voters return to political apathy and stay away. They will of course be replaced to some extent by Labour moderates who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Swinson who stayed away last time. Someone here will no doubt have the numbers to back or refute this intuition.

* refer to the biggest South African sundays today and compare and contrast the coverage / prominence given to omicron to here.

My view is that you are unfortunately wrong about populist Faragist politics. The forces that made Brexit possible are still there. It was never just about Brexit and Brexit didn’t lance the boil. You see this playing out in the states and Europe , where Brexit isn’t a thing. Arguably Brexit just encourages this movement.

A lot of the Brexit vote wasn't really about the EU- that was just what copped the blame for the world changing in ways that many people didn't like. The aim was to take back control, sure, but to use that control to make things right again.

Enacted Brexit can't do that- maybe nothing can. So the next question is what the next target will be.

Privilege. The 'born to rule'. Poor Allegra's unwitting (and rather pleasant) smile told a story that is easy to latch onto.

I do feel rather sorry for her - she's far from being the real villain here - and she did look genuinely distraught last week. Hope there are people looking after her.

Scott_xP

So, the strategy is to blame the media in order to avoid the question https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1469953924950118403

Stuartinromford

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Romford, copped the blame?

How often did ostensibly pro-EU politicians blame it for things?

Not to mention our politicians willingly throwing away things like vetoes, half the rebate, and a referendum promise on Lisbon. Had they, and the EU, not treated the electorate with contempt the favour would not have been returned (still amazed we voted to leave at all).

Fair point, a whole generation of politicians played chicken with Euroscepticism and eventually got run over.

But if you consider the things that people dislike about their lives that drove the 2016 vote (public services, loss of industrial jobs, feeling of powerlessness), they're not solved by what's happened since.

IanB2

DougSeal said:

Dura_Ace said:

tlg86 said:

Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...

I did a stint on secondment in the RAF. During that time I knew SB by reputation but not personally. That reputation was stellar. He was the unmatched expert on the Adour engine and universally held to be a good bloke.

Bear in mind what it takes me to write something positive about an individual who is both RAF AND a tory.

Quite. I was waiting for the sting in the tail that never came. Surprising post of the year.

Especially as Baker can come across as such a tw*t.

Nemtynakht

BlancheLivermore said:

Prominent doltage -

@joannaccherry
It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512

Politicians should spend a lot less time on twitter. I mean why would you cover up a CCTV. Camera whilst sat on a webcam - bonkers

Carnyx

DougSeal said:

Dura_Ace said:

tlg86 said:

Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...

I did a stint on secondment in the RAF. During that time I knew SB by reputation but not personally. That reputation was stellar. He was the unmatched expert on the Adour engine and universally held to be a good bloke.

Bear in mind what it takes me to write something positive about an individual who is both RAF AND a tory.

Quite. I was waiting for the sting in the tail that never came. Surprising post of the year.

Yes, DA praising a crabfat ad astram (so to speak).

Scott_xP

Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules

"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened."
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539

Scott_xP

It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.

Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/12/observer-view-boris-johnson-national-crisis-omicron?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Benpointer

Dura_Ace said:

tlg86 said:

Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...

I did a stint on secondment in the RAF. During that time I knew SB by reputation but not personally. That reputation was stellar. He was the unmatched expert on the Adour engine and universally held to be a good bloke.

Bear in mind what it takes me to write something positive about an individual who is both RAF AND a tory.

That's startling. If he's such an intelligent, good bloke why is he such a dickhead on so many topics I wonder?

Carnyx

Scott_xP said:

It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.

Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/12/observer-view-boris-johnson-national-crisis-omicron?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Mr Baker refers to Mr Johnson 'losing the soul' of the Conservative Party. An arresting concept.

BlancheLivermore

BlancheLivermore said:

Prominent doltage -

@joannaccherry
It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512

@KarlTurnerMP
Is that a bin bag covering a CCTV camera in the corner?

ydoethur

Scott_xP said:

Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules

"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened."
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539

This is a severe national crisis.

When Steve Baker is the one talking sense, we're all fucked.

Roger

Scott_xP said:

Boris wants to be remembered as the new Churchill. If this carries on he'll be remembered as the new Nixon > Mail On Sunday > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10299841/DAN-HODGES-Boris-Johnson-heir-Churchill-Hes-beginning-look-like-Tricky-Dicky.html

A devastating critique but one that will do him more damage in the history books than it will now. To-days jury are Red Wall Brexiteers.

ydoethur

Scott_xP said:

It is a national misfortune that we have a man who is by far and away the worst postwar prime minister in office at the time of the worst postwar crisis.

Our view at the Observer: Boris Johnson is unfit to govern Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/12/observer-view-boris-johnson-national-crisis-omicron?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

File under 'No Shit.'

What we need are not the handwringing aperitif drinkers of the Guardian/Observer but leader writers of the Sun and Mail, and more importantly their readers, to grasp this.

HYUFD

Provided the Tories hold North Shropshire then Boris will survive without a VONC for now, at least until the local elections in May. Even if there is a VONC after a LD win on Thursday I think Boris would still narrowly win it at the moment, 2/3 of Tory MPs will still back him on Vaxports and Plan B as 2/3 of Tory MPs backed May's Deal in December 2018 when she survived her first VONC.

As far as I can see it the only alternative leader who would get any real sort of bounce v Starmer is Rishi Sunak. There is also therefore no point having a leadership election unless sure he could win it, or even with a Sunak coronation a la Gordon Brown or Michael Howard after Blair and IDS' departures. Tory leadership contests are unpredictable, you could even end up with Priti Patel as PM if she pitches herself firmly against more restrictions and hardens her line on the boats across the channel, who knows

SandyRentool

If the photos used by the BBC and Sky News websites to accompany their stories are representative, around 90% of the people who have received a Covid jab are attractive young women.

Fysics_Teacher

tlg86 said:

Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...

His Wycombe constituency may well fall to Labour at the next election.

DavidL

Scott_xP said:

Steve Baker suggests even if the PM hasn't broken the law, he/No10 has broken the spirit of the rules

"The public demands politicians comply with the rules they impose on people, and that they are seen to comply with their spirit. It’s pretty obvious now that hasn’t happened."
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1469956852507201539

Truly, people who work in close proximity for something like 50 hours a week spending another few hours together with a few bottles of wine is a national calamity and almost the sole cause of the spread of Covid in this country. Who could doubt it even for a moment?

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Provided the Tories hold North Shropshire then Boris will survive without a VONC for now, at least until the local elections in May. Even if there is a VONC after a LD win on Thursday I think Boris would still narrowly win it at the moment, 2/3 of Tory MPs will still back him on Vaxports and Plan B as 2/3 of Tory MPs backed May's Deal in December 2018 when she survived her first VONC.

As far as I can see it the only alternative leader who would get any real sort of bounce v Starmer is Rishi Sunak. There is also therefore no point having a leadership election unless sure he could win it, or even with a Sunak coronation a la Gordon Brown or Michael Howard after Blair and IDS' departures. Tory leadership contests are unpredictable, you could even end up with Priti Patel as PM if she pitches herself firmly against more restrictions and hardens her line on the boats across the channel, who knows

Fair assessment @HYUFD, thanks.

It's been an interesting month. Events, eh!

Theuniondivvie

Dura_Ace said:

tlg86 said:

Steve Baker doing the rounds this morning. Don’t rule him out for next PM...

I did a stint on secondment in the RAF. During that time I knew SB by reputation but not personally. That reputation was stellar. He was the unmatched expert on the Adour engine and universally held to be a good bloke.

Bear in mind what it takes me to write something positive about an individual who is both RAF AND a tory.

Be honest, if he didn’t ride a bike would you still feel the faint stirrings of affinity?

BlancheLivermore

BlancheLivermore said:

Prominent doltage -

@joannaccherry
It’s not for any politician to tell the police how to do their job but it seems to me that the black bin bag over the security camera in this photo is highly suggestive that someone knew what was going on was wrong & not within some spurious legal exception.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1469947203389120512

@joannaccherry
In fairness it has been suggested to me this is actually a curtain above a recessed window. I’m sure all will be revealed in a full & frank resignation speech by
@BorisJohnson in @HouseofCommons tomorrow…….

This is my favourite reply

@rosieandrews22
Replying to
@joannaccherry @BorisJohnson and @HouseofCommons
But it goes a long way towards the argument that we all easily believe it to be a camera covered by a bin bag.

Benpointer

On the plus side this morning, no waking up to bad news in the cricket.