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Punters split almost 50-50 on an early BJ exit – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,053
    edited December 2021

    Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    Something lost in translation here I assume? Or a weird use of up to perhaps. 60/120 at a single event sounds implausible.
    Not necessarily. Super spreading events have happened. There was a bloke who came back from his holidays (I think in Staffordshire) and went down the boozer a couple of nights when he got back, they had an outdoor area which was rammed and despite that I think something like 200 people got infected over the 2 nights.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,750

    Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    And all the attendees had to show they were vaccinated, apparently.

    No one should make the mistake of thinking there's no vaccine escape here as far as infection is concerned.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,381
    This is one for TSE

    Revolut have launched an 24carat gold plated debit card yours for a mere one off £79.99

    https://www.world-today-news.com/revolut-announces-a-24-carat-gold-plated-card-for-customers/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408
    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    And all the attendees had to show they were vaccinated, apparently.

    No one should make the mistake of thinking there's no vaccine escape here as far as infection is concerned.
    Quite. It is of course fine, as long as the defences against serious illness and death hold firm.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,381
    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    And all the attendees had to show they were vaccinated, apparently.

    No one should make the mistake of thinking there's no vaccine escape here as far as infection is concerned.
    The vaccine escape comes from the fact your body knows how to handle the virus before it gets in a position to kill you.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,508
    edited December 2021
    Bugs and drugs dot com again 🥱

    On the 8th day of Christmas PB gave to me
    8 variants spreading, 7 unnecessary headlines, 6 conspiracy theories, 5 contradictory public briefs, 3 wise experts panicking, 2 politicians spinning, and iSage up a pear tree.   
  • eek said:

    This is one for TSE

    Revolut have launched an 24carat gold plated debit card yours for a mere one off £79.99

    https://www.world-today-news.com/revolut-announces-a-24-carat-gold-plated-card-for-customers/

    1) Nothing ever tops the American Centurion charge card I had, you couldn't apply for that, you had to be selected. It was dropped off by a courier in a lovely leather box

    2) Revolut are charlatans. They block your account for the most spurious of reasons. I had a friend who had £3,000 withheld from him for nearly a month because he used it in Waitrose.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I've only just found out I'm a Moonraker, and why..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonrakers

    I've just found out that Wiltshire is in the West Country. News to me. Always thought that was just Devon and Cornwall, or - at a stretch - Somerset and Dorset. Isn't Wiltshire in the Midlands?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,729
    isam said:

    Labour aren't fit for power based on these lyrics.


    Fuck me

    The last line could be “they think that they’re something special”?

    And ‘tiers’ is an easy swap for the original’s ‘tears’ in line three
    Rayner's version (jingle bells cover) goes:

    Scum scum scum
    Scum scum scum
    Scum scum all the way
    They partied on
    And that was wrong
    That's all I'm gonna say, ey?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,521
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

    Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

    Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
    That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.
    I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

    Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.
    Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

    This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

    And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

    Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

    Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

    It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

    I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

    And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.
    It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

    I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

    " First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

    I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.
    There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

    So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

    This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

    Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.
    Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

    This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.
    Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

    @JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

    As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

    The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.
    They weren't my questions: I think they were @kinabalu 's.

    As for GRC's: there's a big issue that people wanting to change gender need to live as their new gender for two years. If you are a man transitioning to a woman, then it means you need to dress as a woman.

    IMV a man dressing as a woman going into a men's toilet is going to be in much more physical and mental danger (from comments, bullying in the latter case) than women are from them using women's toilets.

    Basically: banning people undergoing the transitioning process from using the toilets of their desired gender would be a big barrier to their transitioning.

    Perhaps there's a way around this, although I am far from an expert in these areas. Perhaps there should be a pre-GRC certificate; to say someone is undergoing a transitioning process. This can be obtained from a panel, in a similar manner to the Interim GRC that married people need to get before they get a GRC. Once you get this, you can use women's facilities: but it can be rescinded at any time.

    Although there are probably massive holes in that idea, too. Not least it makes an already convoluted process harder.

    As an aside, how do you police this anyway? How do you check that that person using that cubicle is, in fact, a woman?
    Toilets are an odd thing to focus on imo. And, yes, the policing aspect is interesting to ponder.
    My apologies to you. Your two questions are good ones. My mistake.
    No probs, cyclefree. In fact I sometimes think I'm well out of this one on PB. The opinion stats often quoted by my pal Owen Jones - that people are broadly relaxed about people changing gender - are not borne out on this site!

    Tell you one thing though, for all our differences on this, it's dwarfed by shared horror at what's going on with abortion rights in the States.

    Are the right in America hellbent on re-fighting the battles lost 2 generations ago? What's next do you think? Try to reactivate the Crow laws?

    I suppose if they are going to go through these struggles all over again we might get some good music out of it - but really, what a bad bad development.
    Sadly, not so fast. When it comes to slavery, equality before the law, segregation and goodness knows what else it is reasonably clear which side is the progressive cause.

    Abortion is very different for a number of reasons. There is nothing obviously progressive about killing the unborn, and nothing obviously progressive about denying women the right to choose.

    Each side assembles a formidably strong but also fatally flawed case; neither side can acknowledge the weaknesses in their own or the strength of the other side.

    So both sides get angry with the other.

    Though so different it has similarities with how Brexit plays out.
    A woman's right to choose whether she carries the unborn child inside her to term and motherhood - subject to limits regarding late termination - has been established for a generation or more. It's absolutely fundamental to the principle of equal worth of the sexes. The attempt to overturn it is not a matter of 'on the one hand this, on the other hand that' or 'both sides have a point but are too wound up to debate it sensibly'. There are plenty of issues like that but this isn't one of them.
    You see what I mean......

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198
    @ isam

    But changing rooms are not policed for legal gender. So how does it become harder to eject such a person if the process for changing legal gender were to be made easier?

    I can't see how it does. Can't see the logical link. This is the point I'm making.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408
    TimT said:

    I've only just found out I'm a Moonraker, and why..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonrakers

    I've just found out that Wiltshire is in the West Country. News to me. Always thought that was just Devon and Cornwall, or - at a stretch - Somerset and Dorset. Isn't Wiltshire in the Midlands?
    We've always been the West Country (Wilts, Dorset, Somerset). D and C are the Far West, or just the West. At Swindon the most idiotic of songs "West Country, La La La..." rings out round the terraces.

    In the 1990's ITV Central region used to include Swindon as part of their area, which was good as Town played live on TV many times. Oddly BBC South Today seems to count Swindon as part of their area. Certainly if something juicy happens, like a murder.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,053
    edited December 2021

    eek said:

    This is one for TSE

    Revolut have launched an 24carat gold plated debit card yours for a mere one off £79.99

    https://www.world-today-news.com/revolut-announces-a-24-carat-gold-plated-card-for-customers/

    1) Nothing ever tops the American Centurion charge card I had, you couldn't apply for that, you had to be selected. It was dropped off by a courier in a lovely leather box

    2) Revolut are charlatans. They block your account for the most spurious of reasons. I had a friend who had £3,000 withheld from him for nearly a month because he used it in Waitrose.
    Are the benefits still worth the old American Express black card? I dated a girl for a while when I was at uni who had one, and I remember the benefits on travel and restaurants where the big tangible perks.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    @ isam

    But changing rooms are not policed for legal gender. So how does it become harder to eject such a person if the process for changing legal gender were to be made easier?

    I can't see how it does. Can't see the logical link. This is the point I'm making.

    I thought because if they were legally a woman they couldn’t be chucked out, whereas if they were a man they would be, if someone complained
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Not trans women, again?

    Can't we talk about Brexit?

    I am musing on whether it is Johnson being shopsoiled that is affecting recent polling on Brexit or whether it is a shop-soiled Brexit that is marking down Johnson. I think mostly the former. People don't like being cheated.
    Why have they been cheated? There is a labour shortage which has pushed wages up. That is precisely what (many of them) voted for.
    Has it? Do you have a breakdown of wage changes since Brexit?
    On the Mechanical & Electrical side wages have gone up 10-15% this year and continue upwards
    Ok, and is that in any way representative? And where do you get this figure from, while I'm at it?
    Skilled trades in building work and related areas have seen significant rises - I am involved in a building company.
    I think what's needed here is data. Sorry for not taking your word for it.
    https://www.hudsoncontract.co.uk/construction-pay-trends/ has some open source numbers, if you like.
    Another thing to note re wages and employment is that our (and I know other similar companies are the same) normal staff turnover in a year is around 10%, this year it has been well over 50%. All this is because they have been offered significantly more money somewhere else, which then leads to us increasing wages.
  • Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    Something lost in translation here I assume? Or a weird use of up to perhaps. 60/120 at a single event sounds implausible.
    Not necessarily. Super spreading events have happened. There was a bloke who came back from his holidays (I think in Staffordshire) and went down the boozer a couple of nights when he got back, they had an outdoor area which was rammed and despite that I think something like 200 people got infected over the 2 nights.
    https://www.oslo.kommune.no/koronavirus/status-om-handteringen-av-korona/2-desember-pavist-omikron-i-oslo-kommune

    Todays official press release has 1 case confirmed from that event. Let's wait and see.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,381

    eek said:

    This is one for TSE

    Revolut have launched an 24carat gold plated debit card yours for a mere one off £79.99

    https://www.world-today-news.com/revolut-announces-a-24-carat-gold-plated-card-for-customers/

    1) Nothing ever tops the American Centurion charge card I had, you couldn't apply for that, you had to be selected. It was dropped off by a courier in a lovely leather box

    2) Revolut are charlatans. They block your account for the most spurious of reasons. I had a friend who had £3,000 withheld from him for nearly a month because he used it in Waitrose.
    2 - while true - Revolut is literally the only visa card I now own and it's useful for allowing me to transfer currency at opportune times rather than on demand.

    You also need to ask yourself why when I'm told about something incredibly tacky did I instantly think of you.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Not trans women, again?

    Can't we talk about Brexit?

    I am musing on whether it is Johnson being shopsoiled that is affecting recent polling on Brexit or whether it is a shop-soiled Brexit that is marking down Johnson. I think mostly the former. People don't like being cheated.
    Why have they been cheated? There is a labour shortage which has pushed wages up. That is precisely what (many of them) voted for.
    Has it? Do you have a breakdown of wage changes since Brexit?
    On the Mechanical & Electrical side wages have gone up 10-15% this year and continue upwards
    Ok, and is that in any way representative? And where do you get this figure from, while I'm at it?
    Skilled trades in building work and related areas have seen significant rises - I am involved in a building company.
    I think what's needed here is data. Sorry for not taking your word for it.
    https://www.hudsoncontract.co.uk/construction-pay-trends/ has some open source numbers, if you like.
    Another thing to note re wages and employment is that our (and I know other similar companies are the same) normal staff turnover in a year is around 10%, this year it has been well over 50%. All this is because they have been offered significantly more money somewhere else, which then leads to us increasing wages.
    Haven’t Uber drivers left because the pay for delivery drivers has rocketed? That’s more of a Covid effect than Brexit though I suppose
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    edited December 2021
    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    And all the attendees had to show they were vaccinated, apparently.

    No one should make the mistake of thinking there's no vaccine escape here as far as infection is concerned.
    The idiot involved should be shot.

    How can anyone return from a trip to SA given what was known and think it was a good idea to go to a party.

    One of the UK cases seems to have flown in from SA, visited KFC, and then flown out. How necessary was that!?

    None of us are perfect, but there are some real arses out there.
  • Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    Something lost in translation here I assume? Or a weird use of up to perhaps. 60/120 at a single event sounds implausible.
    Not necessarily. Super spreading events have happened. There was a bloke who came back from his holidays (I think in Staffordshire) and went down the boozer a couple of nights when he got back, they had an outdoor area which was rammed and despite that I think something like 200 people got infected over the 2 nights.
    https://www.oslo.kommune.no/koronavirus/status-om-handteringen-av-korona/2-desember-pavist-omikron-i-oslo-kommune

    Todays official press release has 1 case confirmed from that event. Let's wait and see.
    It isn't debated that a) an individual at the party had omicron and b) 50+ people have tested positive. They just haven't sequenced all the tests to work if they are definitely omicron.

    https://www.nrk.no/osloogviken/omikron-smitte-i-oslo-etter-julebord-1.15754329
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,198
    edited December 2021
    Omnium said:


    One of the UK cases seems to have flown in from SA, visited KFC, and then flown out.

    Who the hell are these people ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,650
    edited December 2021

    eek said:

    This is one for TSE

    Revolut have launched an 24carat gold plated debit card yours for a mere one off £79.99

    https://www.world-today-news.com/revolut-announces-a-24-carat-gold-plated-card-for-customers/

    1) Nothing ever tops the American Centurion charge card I had, you couldn't apply for that, you had to be selected. It was dropped off by a courier in a lovely leather box

    2) Revolut are charlatans. They block your account for the most spurious of reasons. I had a friend who had £3,000 withheld from him for nearly a month because he used it in Waitrose.
    Are the benefits still worth the old American Express black card? I dated a girl for a while when I was at uni who had one, and I remember the benefits on travel and restaurants where the big tangible perks.
    Only if you use them, the annual fee is over £2,000 and the joining fee was a bit more but if you use it moderately then it is a bargain and utterly worth it if you use it a lot.

    I remember ringing up AMEX concierge and saying I need to get into this exclusive restaurant but they are sold out for the next three months, about 10 minutes later they came back with a plethora of available dates for the restaurant in the next fortnight.
  • TimT said:

    I've only just found out I'm a Moonraker, and why..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonrakers

    I've just found out that Wiltshire is in the West Country. News to me. Always thought that was just Devon and Cornwall, or - at a stretch - Somerset and Dorset. Isn't Wiltshire in the Midlands?
    You just need to hear the locals discuss their weekend plans; "Oim goin up Brizzle"
  • Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    Something lost in translation here I assume? Or a weird use of up to perhaps. 60/120 at a single event sounds implausible.
    Not necessarily. Super spreading events have happened. There was a bloke who came back from his holidays (I think in Staffordshire) and went down the boozer a couple of nights when he got back, they had an outdoor area which was rammed and despite that I think something like 200 people got infected over the 2 nights.
    Stone.

    Great onomatopoeic place names.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    Pulpstar said:

    Omnium said:


    One of the UK cases seems to have flown in from SA, visited KFC, and then flown out.

    Who the hell are these people ?
    The accidentally rich.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    This is one for TSE

    Revolut have launched an 24carat gold plated debit card yours for a mere one off £79.99

    https://www.world-today-news.com/revolut-announces-a-24-carat-gold-plated-card-for-customers/

    1) Nothing ever tops the American Centurion charge card I had, you couldn't apply for that, you had to be selected. It was dropped off by a courier in a lovely leather box

    2) Revolut are charlatans. They block your account for the most spurious of reasons. I had a friend who had £3,000 withheld from him for nearly a month because he used it in Waitrose.
    2 - while true - Revolut is literally the only visa card I now own and it's useful for allowing me to transfer currency at opportune times rather than on demand.

    You also need to ask yourself why when I'm told about something incredibly tacky did I instantly think of you.
    Because you believe all the fake news about me.

    Honestly, I wore red shoes one time and people draw all the wrong conclusions.

    That's why I've bought new footwear for the PB meet in February.
  • TimT said:

    I've only just found out I'm a Moonraker, and why..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonrakers

    I've just found out that Wiltshire is in the West Country. News to me. Always thought that was just Devon and Cornwall, or - at a stretch - Somerset and Dorset. Isn't Wiltshire in the Midlands?
    Wiltshire accents can still be quite Dorset-ty.

    It's certainly not the Midlands!
  • Just The Shire works for that belt of, err, shires.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,381
    edited December 2021

    eek said:

    This is one for TSE

    Revolut have launched an 24carat gold plated debit card yours for a mere one off £79.99

    https://www.world-today-news.com/revolut-announces-a-24-carat-gold-plated-card-for-customers/

    1) Nothing ever tops the American Centurion charge card I had, you couldn't apply for that, you had to be selected. It was dropped off by a courier in a lovely leather box

    2) Revolut are charlatans. They block your account for the most spurious of reasons. I had a friend who had £3,000 withheld from him for nearly a month because he used it in Waitrose.
    Are the benefits still worth the old American Express black card? I dated a girl for a while when I was at uni who had one, and I remember the benefits on travel and restaurants where the big tangible perks.
    In the States it's definitely the case, JP Morgan Chase have just bought a Saas Restaurant booking firm to attract a particular class of customer.

    Patrick McKenzie (who works for Stripe) is currently doing a newsletter regarding finance and it's variations around the world. It's well worth subscribing if it's of interest. https://bam.kalzumeus.com/
  • I won't be coming to the meet up, sorry
  • Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    Something lost in translation here I assume? Or a weird use of up to perhaps. 60/120 at a single event sounds implausible.
    Not necessarily. Super spreading events have happened. There was a bloke who came back from his holidays (I think in Staffordshire) and went down the boozer a couple of nights when he got back, they had an outdoor area which was rammed and despite that I think something like 200 people got infected over the 2 nights.
    At the party where I caught Covid several people caught it, all from one person who was double vaxed and had tested negative prior to attending. Everyone who got it was double vaccinated I think. Everyone was pretty sick although nobody was hospitalised and we're all still alive. Vaccination doesn't seem to offer much protection against infection or mild (but still quite debilitating, week off work) symptoms.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    I won't be coming to the meet up, sorry

    Hey, and if it's not good enough for CHB, then it's not for me either!

    (I know that's not quite what you meant CHB)

    Actually I might - are there details?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,053
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Omnium said:


    One of the UK cases seems to have flown in from SA, visited KFC, and then flown out.

    Who the hell are these people ?
    It could have been for the rugby. I doubt many flew from SA just for one weekend of rugby, but there is always a few with lots of money who make such trips.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    Just The Shire works for that belt of, err, shires.

    Indeed - I have friends who do draw comparisons with Middle Earth and the West Country...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,121
    .
    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

    Boris himself .... and possibly HYUFD.
    Personally, I think 'as a great PM' is a bit of a stretch. But I think that, as a rule, history judges those panned at the time more kindly, and those lauded at the time, less kindly.
    Tell that to James Buchanan.
    Who is arguably a better comparator for Johnson than the earlier absurd suggestion of Lincoln.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322

    Just The Shire works for that belt of, err, shires.

    Indeed - I have friends who do draw comparisons with Middle Earth and the West Country...
    Tolkien was thinking of the villages outside Birmingham, wasn't he?

    Sarehole Mill and all that....
  • Omnium said:

    I won't be coming to the meet up, sorry

    Hey, and if it's not good enough for CHB, then it's not for me either!

    (I know that's not quite what you meant CHB)

    Actually I might - are there details?
    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/11/16/date-for-your-diary-pb-gathering-feb-3rd-2022/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    Selebian said:

    We'll all be having Omicron parties before you know it :wink:
    Norway giving it a try...

    Super-spreader event in Norway infects up to SIXTY people out of 120

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10266563/Now-dont-invite-FIVE-guests-Christmas-party-says-minister.html
    Something lost in translation here I assume? Or a weird use of up to perhaps. 60/120 at a single event sounds implausible.
    Not necessarily. Super spreading events have happened. There was a bloke who came back from his holidays (I think in Staffordshire) and went down the boozer a couple of nights when he got back, they had an outdoor area which was rammed and despite that I think something like 200 people got infected over the 2 nights.
    At the party where I caught Covid several people caught it, all from one person who was double vaxed and had tested negative prior to attending. Everyone who got it was double vaccinated I think. Everyone was pretty sick although nobody was hospitalised and we're all still alive. Vaccination doesn't seem to offer much protection against infection or mild (but still quite debilitating, week off work) symptoms.
    I don't think thats totally correct. There is a clear effect on transmission - its what has turned a virus with an R0 of around 6 (delta) in to something where the effective R is around 1 in the UK. This doesn't mean that people who are double jabbed cannot catch it, and there will be cases like yours. Its possible you encountered someone shedding a lot of virus,.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    54k cases. Up quite a bit on last week. I think Omicron is much more widely prevalent than we thought. Now we just have to see how that plays out in hospitalisations and deaths. Both still going down.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Omnium said:


    One of the UK cases seems to have flown in from SA, visited KFC, and then flown out.

    Who the hell are these people ?
    It could have been for the rugby. I doubt many flew from SA just for one weekend of rugby, but there is always a few with lots of money who make such trips.
    Sounds like one of my trips around Europe following LFC.

    I think the 2018 final in Kyiv was 'fun', no bloody hotels available, not even AMEX could source me a room, so I ended up pretty much having a trip like The Terminal.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Cyclefree said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Selebian said:

    Thinking of coining Selebian's Law of politicalbetting.com:

    As replies to an original post grow in number (regardless of original topic or scope), the probability of a comparison or example involving transgender issues approaches 1.

    (Nigel's fault this time, although Kinabalu, Cyclefree and Josias were having a parallel discussion too)

    I've got to say Cyclefree going full blown TERF is a change in style I am very happy to see.
    I am not a TERF, an offensive description used to shut down women, much like all the other boo-words used to try and shut up women with a mind and opinions of their own. I am well used to this having worked in a male City environment for nearly 4 decades. It does not bother me in the slightest. I am a feminist who is not going to allow men ( or women, come to that) to trample over rights women have had to fight hard for and which are always at risk, as we see in the US now.

    The views I have expressed have been strongly influenced by a friend of mine who is transitioning to being a woman and who loathes - and has publicly stated her disagreement with - the stance taken by the voluble trans activists and organisations like Stonewall. She has taught me a lot about this issue.
    My pet hate on here is the use of the phrase 'fanboi' to shut down any engagement with the points being made. And it comes from the top.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,670
    53,945
    Ruh roh

    (More in anticipation of panic than anything - admissions are still falling)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    Latest royal net favourability ratings:

    The Queen: +71 (+4)
    William: +67 (+5)
    Kate: +64 (+5)
    Charles: +27 (+10)
    Camilla: +3 (+2)
    Harry: -15 (+10)
    Meghan: -38 (+1)
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1466435234472370190?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,593

    Sandpit said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    27m
    You don’t need to be an anti-vaxxer to be concerned about the concept of state mandated vaccines.

    The German approach is the one we should follow.

    Ban antivaxxers from every shop and business and also stop them meeting other people.

    Will allow everyone properly vaccinated to live normal lives.
    Providing that such requirements only affect those unvaccinated, rather than imposing significant requirements on both the vaccinated population and millions of small businesses.
    It takes me all of five seconds to show my vaccination status on my iPhone.
    And takes the business you’re frequenting all of at least two people (plus any extra security required) on the door checking, assuming that whatever you’re showing on your phone has no implications in terms of privacy or data security.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Not trans women, again?

    Can't we talk about Brexit?

    I am musing on whether it is Johnson being shopsoiled that is affecting recent polling on Brexit or whether it is a shop-soiled Brexit that is marking down Johnson. I think mostly the former. People don't like being cheated.
    Why have they been cheated? There is a labour shortage which has pushed wages up. That is precisely what (many of them) voted for.
    Has it? Do you have a breakdown of wage changes since Brexit?
    On the Mechanical & Electrical side wages have gone up 10-15% this year and continue upwards
    Ok, and is that in any way representative? And where do you get this figure from, while I'm at it?
    Skilled trades in building work and related areas have seen significant rises - I am involved in a building company.
    I think what's needed here is data. Sorry for not taking your word for it.
    https://www.hudsoncontract.co.uk/construction-pay-trends/ has some open source numbers, if you like.
    Another thing to note re wages and employment is that our (and I know other similar companies are the same) normal staff turnover in a year is around 10%, this year it has been well over 50%. All this is because they have been offered significantly more money somewhere else, which then leads to us increasing wages.
    There are few permanent employees in year-round-PAYE sense in smaller scale construction. The staff don't want to do it. So They move very rapidly - end of one project etc.

    The company I am associated with has kept some guys for years. This year the rates are going up....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,643
    Cyclefree said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Selebian said:

    Thinking of coining Selebian's Law of politicalbetting.com:

    As replies to an original post grow in number (regardless of original topic or scope), the probability of a comparison or example involving transgender issues approaches 1.

    (Nigel's fault this time, although Kinabalu, Cyclefree and Josias were having a parallel discussion too)

    I've got to say Cyclefree going full blown TERF is a change in style I am very happy to see.
    I am not a TERF, an offensive description used to shut down women, much like all the other boo-words used to try and shut up women with a mind and opinions of their own. I am well used to this having worked in a male City environment for nearly 4 decades. It does not bother me in the slightest. I am a feminist who is not going to allow men ( or women, come to that) to trample over rights women have had to fight hard for and which are always at risk, as we see in the US now.

    The views I have expressed have been strongly influenced by a friend of mine who is transitioning to being a woman and who loathes - and has publicly stated her disagreement with - the stance taken by the voluble trans activists and organisations like Stonewall. She has taught me a lot about this issue.
    My own views are heavily influenced by two good friends of mine who transitioned, one either way. And several colleagues and acquaintances who had transitioned. I saw a lot of metaphorical sh*t thrown at them due to their decision and consequent lifestyle - both socially and at work. It's not easy, and whilst I hope it's getting better, society can be far from understanding.

    One of those friends committed suicide a few years ago. I am not trans, and I don't particularly have any right to speak for them, but I will think of my friends and my limited view of their experiences. And they're not perverts, n'er-do-wells, or even particularly odd (well, aside from being friends with me).

    So when I see conversations where it becomes a case of implying trans people are a danger, I'll strongly argue the opposite. My two friends were a danger to no-one, and others were a danger to them.

    AS for TERFs: they exist, and are often fairly sick bunnies. So, IMO, are the pro-trans people and groups who seem to care more about arguing than the genuine welfare of trans people. They are two groups of people who just throw muck at each other, with trans people unfortunately left in the middle.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,381
    edited December 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Selebian said:

    Thinking of coining Selebian's Law of politicalbetting.com:

    As replies to an original post grow in number (regardless of original topic or scope), the probability of a comparison or example involving transgender issues approaches 1.

    (Nigel's fault this time, although Kinabalu, Cyclefree and Josias were having a parallel discussion too)

    I've got to say Cyclefree going full blown TERF is a change in style I am very happy to see.
    I am not a TERF, an offensive description used to shut down women, much like all the other boo-words used to try and shut up women with a mind and opinions of their own. I am well used to this having worked in a male City environment for nearly 4 decades. It does not bother me in the slightest. I am a feminist who is not going to allow men ( or women, come to that) to trample over rights women have had to fight hard for and which are always at risk, as we see in the US now.

    The views I have expressed have been strongly influenced by a friend of mine who is transitioning to being a woman and who loathes - and has publicly stated her disagreement with - the stance taken by the voluble trans activists and organisations like Stonewall. She has taught me a lot about this issue.
    My own views are heavily influenced by two good friends of mine who transitioned, one either way. And several colleagues and acquaintances who had transitioned. I saw a lot of metaphorical sh*t thrown at them due to their decision and consequent lifestyle - both socially and at work. It's not easy, and whilst I hope it's getting better, society can be far from understanding.

    One of those friends committed suicide a few years ago. I am not trans, and I don't particularly have any right to speak for them, but I will think of my friends and my limited view of their experiences. And they're not perverts, n'er-do-wells, or even particularly odd (well, aside from being friends with me).

    So when I see conversations where it becomes a case of implying trans people are a danger, I'll strongly argue the opposite. My two friends were a danger to no-one, and others were a danger to them.

    AS for TERFs: they exist, and are often fairly sick bunnies. So, IMO, are the pro-trans people and groups who seem to care more about arguing than the genuine welfare of trans people. They are two groups of people who just throw muck at each other, with trans people unfortunately left in the middle.
    The thing you are missing there is that one easy way for people with dodgy intent is to pretend (self identify) to be transitioning towards being a women without any intent to actually do so. Isam pointed out an example last week that I posted earlier today.

    And that is a problem that is very hard to deal with if others are insisting that self identification is enough.

    Meanwhile as you say you have actual Trans people caught in the middle between 2 militant groups who seem mainly to want to play a game of political point scoring.
  • juniusjunius Posts: 73
    OT. Suggestions please as to what games may have been played at the 18th December 2020 Downing Street party.
    'Twister' - 'Charades' - Monopoly' and 'Musical Chairmanships' are all too obvious.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    Omnium said:

    I won't be coming to the meet up, sorry

    Hey, and if it's not good enough for CHB, then it's not for me either!

    (I know that's not quite what you meant CHB)

    Actually I might - are there details?
    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/11/16/date-for-your-diary-pb-gathering-feb-3rd-2022/
    Thanks TSE.

    I had a wedding booked in my diary for May, but that's been called off in dramatic circumstance. Therefore the PB dig if my most forwards looking diary entry.

    Mind you.. missing CHB!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,568
    Chances of a Tory hold IMO:

    Bexley 100%
    North Shrops 52%
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,643
    Off-topic, for space fans:

    New Zealand company Rocket Lab have given more details of their new Neutron rocket, which will be in the same class as SpaceX's Falcon 9. It has some very interesting features that make it rather different to the F9, whilst trying to solve the same problems.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kwAPr5G6WA

    (For those not particularly into space, Rocket Lab are one of three private newspace companies to launch rockets into orbit: SpaceX, Rocket Lab and, recently, Astra. Rocket Lab have had 19 successful flights and three failures.)
  • TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Johnson so key to Brexit he decided at the last minute which side he would back

    As did much of the country CHB.

    Cameron's failed renegotiations were the final straw for many people, myself included, to show that the EU couldn't be reformed for the better.
    What would he have had to have delivered to have made you change your mind?
    David Cameron gave a good vision of how reform should have taken place in his Bloomberg speech.

    Cameron's first point in the Bloomberg speech was about the need to protect non-Eurozone members in the future with the way the EU was evolving. The Eurozone memberstates had a majority under QMV rules so going forwards the Eurozone if they agreed on a reform that suited them could pass a law without any input from non-Eurozone members.

    In particular there was talk about "double majority" QMV requiring a QMV majority of non-Euro and Euromember states in order for a proposed law to affect non-Euro members. That still wouldn't have been a return to unanimity as required in the past, but would have been a safeguard.

    But nothing happened. There was no fundamental or serious reform to the EU that happened. All of Cameron's proposals in Bloomberg (and there were more than that first one) were roundly rejected in the negotiations.

    Cameron set out to reform the EU and instead proved it couldn't be reformed.
    Don't disagree - the EU was always unlikely to change imo and he did exempt the UK from those changes but I hear you.
    He didn't exempt the UK from those changes. There was no change to the voting system.

    Mealy-mouthed words about being exempt from "further union" doesn't mean anything unless the voting system is amended to reflect that reality. It wasn't, was it?
    The UK held all the cards, Philip. Don't like ABC measure? We hereby deem it closer union and we reject it.

    That's the shame imo about Brexit. We genuinely held all the cards. And we threw it away.

    At the time, I said that we should have implemented a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and made it clear that all such future treaties were subject to referenda. It's not as if there aren't a number of countries in the EU, for which that was so.
    IIRC Camo made a Cast Iron Guarantee on the matter didn't he?
    Too late by that point.

    As a Remain voter, it makes me giggle to hear people suggesting that the way to prevent BREXIT was to prevent the voters getting... too close? to certain matters

    For generations, the pitch in the western world has been Democracy Rules OK. Telling the voters, now, that they "have no choice" is not an answer. Telling them they have no choice because the rule book says - just invites the rule book to be torn up.

    As J A Froude said in "Caesar, A sketch" - "Constitutions are made for men, not men for constitutions". The Roman Republic died because the oligarchy may or may not have been right - the constitution, written and unwritten said they had the power. The people then backed the breaking of the constitution.
    I don't have a clue what point you're trying to make.

    But I can tell you that the EU is not democratic at all. The voters have no say in the matter of the executive.
    You mean, like the UK Cabinet?
    The Cabinet is elected based upon the Parliament we elect.

    Not the case with the EU.
    The Member States vote for parties who want to be in the EU. So perfectly democratic. Those Member States who don't want to be in the EU vote for parties who want to leave. Also perfectly democratic.

    It is exactly the same. Can you change the laws that were decided by the cabinet and voted for in parliament on mask wearing? I don't believe you can. But it is still a democratic process.
    Yes I can. I can vote for a party that will drop mask requirements at the Parliamentary elections.

    Since the European Parliament doesn't have a European demos and doesn't form the European government anyway the same is not true in Europe.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,855

    I've only just found out I'm a Moonraker, and why..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonrakers

    Welcome to the club. How specific are you? The origin is from Devizes way, and other great stories include someone going from his rural village into Devizes in order to better see an eclipse...

    Its also a classic tale of the underdog. Looks like its mocking the thick locals, raking for the cheese, that is of course the reflection of the moon, when in reality the locals are quicker witted than the revenue...
    I lived in Devizes for a couple of years just over ten years ago. I live about fifteen miles from there now, but was there last week for my booster. I knew there was a pub in Swindon called the Moonrakers, but had no idea it was a name for Wiltshire folk.

    Cheese or chalk?

    In my younger days I had friends there/nearby so had a few trips exploring the area looking at megaliths etc in between pub opening times.
  • Just The Shire works for that belt of, err, shires.

    Indeed - I have friends who do draw comparisons with Middle Earth and the West Country...
    Tolkien was thinking of the villages outside Birmingham, wasn't he?

    Sarehole Mill and all that....
    Warwick.. something
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408
    AlistairM said:

    54k cases. Up quite a bit on last week. I think Omicron is much more widely prevalent than we thought. Now we just have to see how that plays out in hospitalisations and deaths. Both still going down.

    Certainly seems one possible reason, although I note the lower than expected numbers sat-tuesday and wonder if there is partly some catching up going on. @Chris suggested possibly 1000 cases of omicron as few days ago based on the S drop out rates, and that could certainly be playing a role if it is even more transmissable than delta.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219

    53,945
    Ruh roh

    (More in anticipation of panic than anything - admissions are still falling)

    At 700, admissions are 6.5% lower than same day last week (748).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322
    UK local R

    image
  • eekeek Posts: 28,381
    Farooq said:

    junius said:

    OT. Suggestions please as to what games may have been played at the 18th December 2020 Downing Street party.
    'Twister' - 'Charades' - Monopoly' and 'Musical Chairmanships' are all too obvious.

    Cards against Humanity, obvs. The cabinet is full of em.
    Given the recent HS2E cancellation - Ticket to Ride (Europe edition obviously).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322
    Case summary

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    junius said:

    OT. Suggestions please as to what games may have been played at the 18th December 2020 Downing Street party.
    'Twister' - 'Charades' - Monopoly' and 'Musical Chairmanships' are all too obvious.

    Risk?
    Not Diplomacy for sure.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    Farooq said:

    junius said:

    OT. Suggestions please as to what games may have been played at the 18th December 2020 Downing Street party.
    'Twister' - 'Charades' - Monopoly' and 'Musical Chairmanships' are all too obvious.

    Cards against Humanity, obvs. The cabinet is full of em.
    Pit.

    That's the only game I've found that nobody hates.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322
    Hospitals

    image
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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322
    Deaths

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,855
    junius said:

    OT. Suggestions please as to what games may have been played at the 18th December 2020 Downing Street party.
    'Twister' - 'Charades' - Monopoly' and 'Musical Chairmanships' are all too obvious.

    Risk.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Stocky said:

    53,945
    Ruh roh

    (More in anticipation of panic than anything - admissions are still falling)

    At 700, admissions are 6.5% lower than same day last week (748).
    I noted the number in Scottish Hospitals with Covid was 680 which is the lowest its been for months
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    AlistairM said:

    54k cases. Up quite a bit on last week. I think Omicron is much more widely prevalent than we thought. Now we just have to see how that plays out in hospitalisations and deaths. Both still going down.

    Boosters seem to be doing the job so far driving down hospitalisations and deaths. However there could still be the time lag/ not yet seeing with Omicron its impact in terms of hospitalisations and deaths.

    Next 2-3 weeks we should know a lot more.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    AlistairM said:

    54k cases. Up quite a bit on last week. I think Omicron is much more widely prevalent than we thought. Now we just have to see how that plays out in hospitalisations and deaths. Both still going down.

    Certainly seems one possible reason, although I note the lower than expected numbers sat-tuesday and wonder if there is partly some catching up going on. @Chris suggested possibly 1000 cases of omicron as few days ago based on the S drop out rates, and that could certainly be playing a role if it is even more transmissable than delta.
    My suspicion is the recent very cold weather/Storm Arwen. That will be starting to feed through now given it'll surely have caused a few more indoor gatherings.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322
    Age related data

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198
    Cyclefree said:


    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

    Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

    Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
    That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.
    I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

    Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.
    Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

    This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

    And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

    Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

    Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

    It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

    I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

    And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.
    It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

    I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

    " First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

    I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.
    There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

    So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

    This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

    Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.
    Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

    This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.
    Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

    @JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

    As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

    The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.
    They were MY 2 questions! :smile:

    My view isn't the same as yours but it's not totally different ballpark either.

    I don't think an easier gender change process, based mainly on self-ID, would lead to widespread abuse. I think its main impact would be positive for the small but significant number of people directly affected - transgender people - and neutral for everybody else. The lives of this minority made better and nobody else any the wiser as they go about their lives. This was the consensus when the reforms were being considered here by the May government. They were shelved imo for reasons unrelated to evidence and reason. As I mentioned before, the new German government is pledged to implement something similar so it will be interesting to see how that develops. Will there be a backlash like here? Will they soon be having the same sort of culture war about it as we are?

    But an easier, less medicalized process doesn't imo mean end of story. What about things in society where you can reasonably argue that sex is more relevant than gender? Pro sports say? Prisons? Refuges? No reason not have bespoke rules around some of this. Based on risk, as you say, but also on the opinion of women if there is a clear consensus there. And you can argue the default either way. Exclude trans unless, or include trans unless. I think the latter because that is in accord with the general principle we usually aspire to for minorities.

    So, make it easier, trust people, allow them to be themselves when not harming others, and consider cases for exclusion - eg sports and prisons - based on evidence and reason not on ignorance and prejudice.
    You are being naive. Men are already abusing self-ID. See what's happened in the Girl Guides or in the rape crisis centre in Scotland. Or the rape therapy group in Brighton. Or in California jails for women. Or in womens' prisons here.

    And real harm is happening now to real women. The women raped by men claiming to be trans - in prison and out of it. The rape victims denied therapy because they did not want a man present. The rape victims told by the Head of the Scottish rape crisis Centre that they were bigots for not wanting men around etc. The girls refusing to use unisex toilets in school because they do not want boys around when they are menstruating.

    I don't think you have a clue as to how real the fear is when womens boundaries are breached by men. Nor why we are suspicious about men who demand entry into our spaces as of right rather than with our permission. Why should we trust someone who aggressively demands and insists rather than politely ask and back off if refused?
    Don't think I'm being naive. I've never said there are no instances of men faking trans for nefarious purposes. Nor instances of 'transphobia' being wrongly alleged in order to squash valid concerns.

    What I'm suggesting is we have a quicker easier process to legally change gender. We treat the people who make the change as being of the gender they have transitioned to. We make exceptions to this if there are solid genuine reasons to do so. Eg (for me) elite sports and prisons spring to mind, but that would be a debate to be had.

    What's wrong with that?
    I'll tell you why.

    Transition is a major undertaking. So before people do it, they should be certain and take the time to consider all aspects.

    Second, a legal change has consequences for spouses and children. Their rights need to be considered and taken into account.

    Third, a legal change has implications for the data which is collected and held and used to inform all sorts of public, criminal, policing and health policy, as well as legal cases which are based on sex. If this data and statistics are distorted this will impact - often adversely - on others who rely on it for their legal rights; see, for instance, the use of the comparator in equal pay claims.

    Fourth, it has legal and social consequences for those in the sex to which the person changes. Someone who fully transitions to being a woman may remain biologically a male but - other than for her own health needs - this does not generally impact other women. But someone who doesn't transition at all but simply declares it does have an impact because that person retains a male body and all the physical, sexual and other attributes that go with that - and these do have an impact on other women.

    So while I would certainly support additional resources to make the process of getting a diagnosis and treatment faster and easier, I think that for such a life-changing decision with considerable impact on others, I think it right that the final legal change not be speeded up and that there needs to be external objective medical validation of what the person is saying.

    And why just elite sports? Why not all sports? What about domestic violence refuges? Or rape centres? Or hospital wards? Or changing rooms? Or the Girl Guides? Etc The reasons for protecting women in prisons are just as valid for women and girls in all these other situations as well. Pretty soon you end up in the situation you have now where so long as the reasons for single sex spaces are legitimate and proportionate you can have them (the current situation under the Equality Act, Schedule 7 - if you must know).

    So why change it?
    Completely agree with your main point here - to change legal gender is a very grave thing to do. Hence why the vast majority of those who do it will be doing so for profound and genuine reasons and such should be our assumption. And although others are affected, at the end of the day this is primarily a matter for the individual concerned. Whatever process you have, it comes down to their assessment of themselves, who and what they are.

    A process based on self-ID doesn't mean it's done lightly or for sinister reasons. Several countries have such a process. Germany is about to go that route. It's not some superwoke outlier being proposed. Certainly wasn't seen that way 3 years ago when the May government were looking at it and I don't see why the big change now compared to then. I also don't see why it's such a hot potato here in the UK, more so by a degree of magnitude, it seems, than in other countries.

    The data point is a good one. I'm not arguing that gender should replace sex in all information systems. Or that birth sex for an individual should be retrospectively changed. That was a fact, sex at birth, and it remains a fact.

    Finally you mention various areas, other than prisons and sports, where you'd look to exclude trans people. I might disagree with some of them but, as I say, this is a debate to have. Make the legal gender change process easier (and it will never be a priority for medical resource, let's face it), have a default principle of inclusion, and decide which things should be governed by sex not gender.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,593

    eek said:

    This is one for TSE

    Revolut have launched an 24carat gold plated debit card yours for a mere one off £79.99

    https://www.world-today-news.com/revolut-announces-a-24-carat-gold-plated-card-for-customers/

    1) Nothing ever tops the American Centurion charge card I had, you couldn't apply for that, you had to be selected. It was dropped off by a courier in a lovely leather box

    2) Revolut are charlatans. They block your account for the most spurious of reasons. I had a friend who had £3,000 withheld from him for nearly a month because he used it in Waitrose.
    Are the benefits still worth the old American Express black card? I dated a girl for a while when I was at uni who had one, and I remember the benefits on travel and restaurants where the big tangible perks.
    Not unless you still do an awful lot of travelling, and the sort of travelling that means you need to lean on their conscierge service for restaurant bookings in every city you visit. Otherwise, it’s mostly virtue signalling to have one in your wallet.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    Farooq said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    junius said:

    OT. Suggestions please as to what games may have been played at the 18th December 2020 Downing Street party.
    'Twister' - 'Charades' - Monopoly' and 'Musical Chairmanships' are all too obvious.

    Cards against Humanity, obvs. The cabinet is full of em.
    Pit.

    That's the only game I've found that nobody hates.
    I saw a Pit deck when I was a small child and couldn't make head nor tail of it. A bull and a bear, so something stock related?
    It's an incredibly simple game where everyone has to shout a lot. You won't go wrong if you acquire a set.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,643
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Selebian said:

    Thinking of coining Selebian's Law of politicalbetting.com:

    As replies to an original post grow in number (regardless of original topic or scope), the probability of a comparison or example involving transgender issues approaches 1.

    (Nigel's fault this time, although Kinabalu, Cyclefree and Josias were having a parallel discussion too)

    I've got to say Cyclefree going full blown TERF is a change in style I am very happy to see.
    I am not a TERF, an offensive description used to shut down women, much like all the other boo-words used to try and shut up women with a mind and opinions of their own. I am well used to this having worked in a male City environment for nearly 4 decades. It does not bother me in the slightest. I am a feminist who is not going to allow men ( or women, come to that) to trample over rights women have had to fight hard for and which are always at risk, as we see in the US now.

    The views I have expressed have been strongly influenced by a friend of mine who is transitioning to being a woman and who loathes - and has publicly stated her disagreement with - the stance taken by the voluble trans activists and organisations like Stonewall. She has taught me a lot about this issue.
    My own views are heavily influenced by two good friends of mine who transitioned, one either way. And several colleagues and acquaintances who had transitioned. I saw a lot of metaphorical sh*t thrown at them due to their decision and consequent lifestyle - both socially and at work. It's not easy, and whilst I hope it's getting better, society can be far from understanding.

    One of those friends committed suicide a few years ago. I am not trans, and I don't particularly have any right to speak for them, but I will think of my friends and my limited view of their experiences. And they're not perverts, n'er-do-wells, or even particularly odd (well, aside from being friends with me).

    So when I see conversations where it becomes a case of implying trans people are a danger, I'll strongly argue the opposite. My two friends were a danger to no-one, and others were a danger to them.

    AS for TERFs: they exist, and are often fairly sick bunnies. So, IMO, are the pro-trans people and groups who seem to care more about arguing than the genuine welfare of trans people. They are two groups of people who just throw muck at each other, with trans people unfortunately left in the middle.
    The thing you are missing there is that one easy way for people with dodgy intent is to pretend (self identify) to be transitioning towards being a women without any intent to actually do so. Isam pointed out an example last week that I posted earlier today.

    And that is a problem that is very hard to deal with if others are insisting that self identification is enough.

    Meanwhile as you say you have actual Trans people caught in the middle between 2 militant groups who seem mainly to want to play a game of political point scoring.
    I don't miss that issue.

    It's possibly a terminology problem. IMO unregulated self-id is much more problematic than 'trans', for the reasons many people give. But since people (on both sides) used 'self-id' to mean trans as well (perhaps because self-id is part of trans), then a messy mess becomes messier.

    It might be better if the two different situations were separated, and not conflated - as I say, both sides do it. Or perhaps they're just a part of a continuum, so are impossible to separate...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,698
    junius said:

    OT. Suggestions please as to what games may have been played at the 18th December 2020 Downing Street party.
    'Twister' - 'Charades' - Monopoly' and 'Musical Chairmanships' are all too obvious.

    Pass the Pigs

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pass_the_Pigs

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,670


    Age related data

    Why the jump in 85+ year olds?

    Did they slip on the ice whilst unknowingly covid positive, or catch it in hospital after the same?

    Cases seem to have levelled off in the yoof - it appears to be their parents going Christmas shopping who are getting it. Certainly applies in my family - sister-in-law tested positive yesterday after a visit to Meadowhell.

    Not showing a big increase in London which is where you'd expect Omicron effects to show first.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,445
    TimT said:

    I've only just found out I'm a Moonraker, and why..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonrakers

    I've just found out that Wiltshire is in the West Country. News to me. Always thought that was just Devon and Cornwall, or - at a stretch - Somerset and Dorset. Isn't Wiltshire in the Midlands?
    Seem to recall drinking some quite rough cider in Wiltshire when I was young.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

    Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

    Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
    That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.
    I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

    Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.
    Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

    This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

    And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

    Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

    Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

    It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

    I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

    And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.
    It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

    I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

    " First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

    I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.
    There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

    So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

    This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

    Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.
    Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

    This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.
    Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

    @JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

    As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

    The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.
    They weren't my questions: I think they were @kinabalu 's.

    As for GRC's: there's a big issue that people wanting to change gender need to live as their new gender for two years. If you are a man transitioning to a woman, then it means you need to dress as a woman.

    IMV a man dressing as a woman going into a men's toilet is going to be in much more physical and mental danger (from comments, bullying in the latter case) than women are from them using women's toilets.

    Basically: banning people undergoing the transitioning process from using the toilets of their desired gender would be a big barrier to their transitioning.

    Perhaps there's a way around this, although I am far from an expert in these areas. Perhaps there should be a pre-GRC certificate; to say someone is undergoing a transitioning process. This can be obtained from a panel, in a similar manner to the Interim GRC that married people need to get before they get a GRC. Once you get this, you can use women's facilities: but it can be rescinded at any time.

    Although there are probably massive holes in that idea, too. Not least it makes an already convoluted process harder.

    As an aside, how do you police this anyway? How do you check that that person using that cubicle is, in fact, a woman?
    Toilets are an odd thing to focus on imo. And, yes, the policing aspect is interesting to ponder.
    One reason for the focus on toilets is because so many women and girls have endured some form of sexual assault in toilets. It was where I was first assaulted when I was about 13. This is not unusual.

    Policing: you need to be free to challenge without being accused of phobias. And when someone walks in who is obviously a man and not even trying to pass themselves as a woman or who has an erection or who indecently exposes themselves or who otherwise behaves in an appropriate way then they need to be told to leave and the authorities should support that ejection not accuse women.
    Male perverts accessing women's toilets and behaving indecently is a crime and most definitely should be treated seriously, regardless of whether the GRA is reformed or not.

    But, again, what's the logical link between an easier legal gender change process and the prevalence of that?
    The problem is that the male perverts, when caught in the women’s toilets, will say that they are trans women and that anyone questioning them is transphobic and committing offences under the Gender Recognition Act.

    Legislation designed to protect a tiny minority, has given free rein to a larger minority, who are despised by women and seen as an invasion of their protected spaces.
    What legislation are you talking about?

    Legally changing gender doesn't make it easier for a man to access a female toilet. So what's the link between the legal gender change process and a man accessing a female toilet?

    There isn't one unless toilets are policed for gender via a certificate. If they were, yes, a man could be motivated to change gender, get the cert, and show it to gain access.

    But they aren't. Nor are they policed for physical genital sex.

    Unless you're proposing these things - which you surely aren't - I don't see where you're going with the comment.
    The problem isn’t trans women. The problem is men, some of whom are sex offenders, posing as trans women.
    But this is still not addressing my point.

    How does making the legal gender change process easier make it more likely that such men will access female spaces that aren't policed for legal gender?
  • junius said:

    OT. Suggestions please as to what games may have been played at the 18th December 2020 Downing Street party.
    'Twister' - 'Charades' - Monopoly' and 'Musical Chairmanships' are all too obvious.

    Boar on the floor.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,698

    53,945
    Ruh roh

    (More in anticipation of panic than anything - admissions are still falling)

    There's a lot of it about...

    Let's hope that this time we don't copy European trends.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,445
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

    Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

    Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
    That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.
    I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

    Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.
    Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

    This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

    And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

    Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

    Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

    It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

    I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

    And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.
    It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

    I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

    " First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

    I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.
    There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

    So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

    This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

    Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.
    Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

    This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.
    Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

    @JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

    As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

    The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.
    They weren't my questions: I think they were @kinabalu 's.

    As for GRC's: there's a big issue that people wanting to change gender need to live as their new gender for two years. If you are a man transitioning to a woman, then it means you need to dress as a woman.

    IMV a man dressing as a woman going into a men's toilet is going to be in much more physical and mental danger (from comments, bullying in the latter case) than women are from them using women's toilets.

    Basically: banning people undergoing the transitioning process from using the toilets of their desired gender would be a big barrier to their transitioning.

    Perhaps there's a way around this, although I am far from an expert in these areas. Perhaps there should be a pre-GRC certificate; to say someone is undergoing a transitioning process. This can be obtained from a panel, in a similar manner to the Interim GRC that married people need to get before they get a GRC. Once you get this, you can use women's facilities: but it can be rescinded at any time.

    Although there are probably massive holes in that idea, too. Not least it makes an already convoluted process harder.

    As an aside, how do you police this anyway? How do you check that that person using that cubicle is, in fact, a woman?
    Toilets are an odd thing to focus on imo. And, yes, the policing aspect is interesting to ponder.
    One reason for the focus on toilets is because so many women and girls have endured some form of sexual assault in toilets. It was where I was first assaulted when I was about 13. This is not unusual.

    Policing: you need to be free to challenge without being accused of phobias. And when someone walks in who is obviously a man and not even trying to pass themselves as a woman or who has an erection or who indecently exposes themselves or who otherwise behaves in an appropriate way then they need to be told to leave and the authorities should support that ejection not accuse women.
    Male perverts accessing women's toilets and behaving indecently is a crime and most definitely should be treated seriously, regardless of whether the GRA is reformed or not.

    But, again, what's the logical link between an easier legal gender change process and the prevalence of that?
    The problem is that the male perverts, when caught in the women’s toilets, will say that they are trans women and that anyone questioning them is transphobic and committing offences under the Gender Recognition Act.

    Legislation designed to protect a tiny minority, has given free rein to a larger minority, who are despised by women and seen as an invasion of their protected spaces.
    What legislation are you talking about?

    Legally changing gender doesn't make it easier for a man to access a female toilet. So what's the link between the legal gender change process and a man accessing a female toilet?

    There isn't one unless toilets are policed for gender via a certificate. If they were, yes, a man could be motivated to change gender, get the cert, and show it to gain access.

    But they aren't. Nor are they policed for physical genital sex.

    Unless you're proposing these things - which you surely aren't - I don't see where you're going with the comment.
    The problem isn’t trans women. The problem is men, some of whom are sex offenders, posing as trans women.
    But this is still not addressing my point.

    How does making the legal gender change process easier make it more likely that such men will access female spaces that aren't policed for legal gender?
    Deleted
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,751
    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

    Boris himself .... and possibly HYUFD.
    Personally, I think 'as a great PM' is a bit of a stretch. But I think that, as a rule, history judges those panned at the time more kindly, and those lauded at the time, less kindly.
    Tell that to James Buchanan.
    Who is arguably a better comparator for Johnson than the earlier absurd suggestion of Lincoln.
    Eh? Boris won his civil war.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,381
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

    Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

    Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
    That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.
    I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

    Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.
    Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

    This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

    And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

    Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

    Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

    It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

    I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

    And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.
    It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

    I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

    " First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

    I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.
    There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

    So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

    This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

    Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.
    Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

    This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.
    Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

    @JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

    As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

    The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.
    They weren't my questions: I think they were @kinabalu 's.

    As for GRC's: there's a big issue that people wanting to change gender need to live as their new gender for two years. If you are a man transitioning to a woman, then it means you need to dress as a woman.

    IMV a man dressing as a woman going into a men's toilet is going to be in much more physical and mental danger (from comments, bullying in the latter case) than women are from them using women's toilets.

    Basically: banning people undergoing the transitioning process from using the toilets of their desired gender would be a big barrier to their transitioning.

    Perhaps there's a way around this, although I am far from an expert in these areas. Perhaps there should be a pre-GRC certificate; to say someone is undergoing a transitioning process. This can be obtained from a panel, in a similar manner to the Interim GRC that married people need to get before they get a GRC. Once you get this, you can use women's facilities: but it can be rescinded at any time.

    Although there are probably massive holes in that idea, too. Not least it makes an already convoluted process harder.

    As an aside, how do you police this anyway? How do you check that that person using that cubicle is, in fact, a woman?
    Toilets are an odd thing to focus on imo. And, yes, the policing aspect is interesting to ponder.
    One reason for the focus on toilets is because so many women and girls have endured some form of sexual assault in toilets. It was where I was first assaulted when I was about 13. This is not unusual.

    Policing: you need to be free to challenge without being accused of phobias. And when someone walks in who is obviously a man and not even trying to pass themselves as a woman or who has an erection or who indecently exposes themselves or who otherwise behaves in an appropriate way then they need to be told to leave and the authorities should support that ejection not accuse women.
    Male perverts accessing women's toilets and behaving indecently is a crime and most definitely should be treated seriously, regardless of whether the GRA is reformed or not.

    But, again, what's the logical link between an easier legal gender change process and the prevalence of that?
    The problem is that the male perverts, when caught in the women’s toilets, will say that they are trans women and that anyone questioning them is transphobic and committing offences under the Gender Recognition Act.

    Legislation designed to protect a tiny minority, has given free rein to a larger minority, who are despised by women and seen as an invasion of their protected spaces.
    What legislation are you talking about?

    Legally changing gender doesn't make it easier for a man to access a female toilet. So what's the link between the legal gender change process and a man accessing a female toilet?

    There isn't one unless toilets are policed for gender via a certificate. If they were, yes, a man could be motivated to change gender, get the cert, and show it to gain access.

    But they aren't. Nor are they policed for physical genital sex.

    Unless you're proposing these things - which you surely aren't - I don't see where you're going with the comment.
    The problem isn’t trans women. The problem is men, some of whom are sex offenders, posing as trans women.
    But this is still not addressing my point.

    How does making the legal gender change process easier make it more likely that such men will access female spaces that aren't policed for legal gender?
    Because it makes it harder to call out any men abusing the facilities - at the moment it's easy to do so and a shop would be in it's rights to remove and bar such a person.

    If you move to self identification being enough, removing and barring that person becomes a whole lot more complex.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322


    Age related data

    1) Why the jump in 85+ year olds?

    Did they slip on the ice whilst unknowingly covid positive, or catch it in hospital after the same?

    2) Cases seem to have levelled off in the yoof - it appears to be their parents going Christmas shopping who are getting it. Certainly applies in my family - sister-in-law tested positive yesterday after a visit to Meadowhell.

    3) Not showing a big increase in London which is where you'd expect Omicron effects to show first.
    1) There was an brief bump in the 85+ case data for England a couple of weeks ago -

    image

    Might be related...

    2) Yes
    3) Indeed
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,198
    This is still delta, not omicron. Omicron might be gaining but it's not dominant yet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    Does anyone at the BBC do pronunciation any more?
    Peng Shuai this time.
    It is very disrespectful at best.
  • dixiedean said:

    Does anyone at the BBC do pronunciation any more?
    Peng Shuai this time.
    It is very disrespectful at best.

    Its part of their diversity drive....diversity of pronouncing words (incorrectly).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322

    TimT said:

    I've only just found out I'm a Moonraker, and why..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonrakers

    I've just found out that Wiltshire is in the West Country. News to me. Always thought that was just Devon and Cornwall, or - at a stretch - Somerset and Dorset. Isn't Wiltshire in the Midlands?
    Seem to recall drinking some quite rough cider in Wiltshire when I was young.
    There is also some very good cider there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,593

    Off-topic, for space fans:

    New Zealand company Rocket Lab have given more details of their new Neutron rocket, which will be in the same class as SpaceX's Falcon 9. It has some very interesting features that make it rather different to the F9, whilst trying to solve the same problems.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kwAPr5G6WA

    (For those not particularly into space, Rocket Lab are one of three private newspace companies to launch rockets into orbit: SpaceX, Rocket Lab and, recently, Astra. Rocket Lab have had 19 successful flights and three failures.)

    That’s cool. How awesome does technology advance, when a public monopoly like NASA is exchanged for a private competition?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,729
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

    Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

    Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
    That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.
    I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

    Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.
    Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

    This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

    And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

    Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

    Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

    It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

    I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

    And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.
    It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

    I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

    " First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

    I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.
    There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

    So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

    This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

    Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.
    Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

    This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.
    Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

    @JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

    As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

    The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.
    They weren't my questions: I think they were @kinabalu 's.

    As for GRC's: there's a big issue that people wanting to change gender need to live as their new gender for two years. If you are a man transitioning to a woman, then it means you need to dress as a woman.

    IMV a man dressing as a woman going into a men's toilet is going to be in much more physical and mental danger (from comments, bullying in the latter case) than women are from them using women's toilets.

    Basically: banning people undergoing the transitioning process from using the toilets of their desired gender would be a big barrier to their transitioning.

    Perhaps there's a way around this, although I am far from an expert in these areas. Perhaps there should be a pre-GRC certificate; to say someone is undergoing a transitioning process. This can be obtained from a panel, in a similar manner to the Interim GRC that married people need to get before they get a GRC. Once you get this, you can use women's facilities: but it can be rescinded at any time.

    Although there are probably massive holes in that idea, too. Not least it makes an already convoluted process harder.

    As an aside, how do you police this anyway? How do you check that that person using that cubicle is, in fact, a woman?
    Toilets are an odd thing to focus on imo. And, yes, the policing aspect is interesting to ponder.
    One reason for the focus on toilets is because so many women and girls have endured some form of sexual assault in toilets. It was where I was first assaulted when I was about 13. This is not unusual.

    Policing: you need to be free to challenge without being accused of phobias. And when someone walks in who is obviously a man and not even trying to pass themselves as a woman or who has an erection or who indecently exposes themselves or who otherwise behaves in an appropriate way then they need to be told to leave and the authorities should support that ejection not accuse women.
    Male perverts accessing women's toilets and behaving indecently is a crime and most definitely should be treated seriously, regardless of whether the GRA is reformed or not.

    But, again, what's the logical link between an easier legal gender change process and the prevalence of that?
    The problem is that the male perverts, when caught in the women’s toilets, will say that they are trans women and that anyone questioning them is transphobic and committing offences under the Gender Recognition Act.

    Legislation designed to protect a tiny minority, has given free rein to a larger minority, who are despised by women and seen as an invasion of their protected spaces.
    What legislation are you talking about?

    Legally changing gender doesn't make it easier for a man to access a female toilet. So what's the link between the legal gender change process and a man accessing a female toilet?

    There isn't one unless toilets are policed for gender via a certificate. If they were, yes, a man could be motivated to change gender, get the cert, and show it to gain access.

    But they aren't. Nor are they policed for physical genital sex.

    Unless you're proposing these things - which you surely aren't - I don't see where you're going with the comment.
    The problem isn’t trans women. The problem is men, some of whom are sex offenders, posing as trans women.
    But this is still not addressing my point.

    How does making the legal gender change process easier make it more likely that such men will access female spaces that aren't policed for legal gender?
    I think the point (and I have some sympathy with this) is that your creepy but not quite criminal man who wants to hang out in the women's toilets can presently be moved on in short order, simply for being a man. Say he's loitering by the basins, leering at the women in the mirror. Nothing criminal, but he's not allowed to be there. If a women reports it to the staff, he'll be fetched out. If he, by claiming to indentify as 'she' has a legal right to stay in there then it becomes a lot more shades of grey. Can only reasonably be expelled for.... what? Taking too long in there? Looking in the mirror allegedly at women? Could be a threatening presence about which little could be done.

    I don't think that this is about the man waving his penis around in the women's toilets, which would surely still result in expulsion, but about the more subtle stuff. One person could cause a lot of trouble and unease, without doing anything overtly wrong.

    Are there many of these men? I don't know. Some though, I expect. And if you're a woman being harassed by one of them then you're not really going to care whether it's common or not. It's intimidating/unpleasant. but if you report it, you report - what? - someone looked at me a bit funny or is taking a long time?

    On the other hand, the genuinely transitioning woman should, imho, be able to use that space. And I'm not really into defining what people have to wear to get into that space - only transgender women in dresses, ridiculous?

    I'm not quite sure what the answer is, but I do think there would be some issues raised by the ability for people to self-ID and be legally treated as self-Id gender.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,394

    Sandpit said:

    Someone here persuaded me to subscribe to the (free) American Morning Dispatch emails, which come from a conservative think-tank. They often illustrate the very best of conservatism, in my view - an emphasis on family, mutual respect, religion and tolerance - and are sometimes beautifully written. They aren't my natural habitat but they're often a pleasure to read and think about. The current one is about the pleasures of solitude:

    https://mattlabash.substack.com/p/snow-job

    That’s an awesome story, not that many people are going to be too worried about being stuck in a pub for three days!
    There are a surprising number of people out there, whose response to circumstance beyond their control is escalating anger. As opposed to constructive adaption.
    That describes my ex, yes.
    Some people say the glass is half full. Some say the glass is half empty.

    I say both are missing the *real* question.

    "Who's round is it?"
    And why haven't they already got the round in? And spilling your drink is justice for your failure to get the round in. And...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

    Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

    Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
    That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.
    I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

    Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.
    Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

    This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

    And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

    Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

    Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

    It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

    I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

    And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.
    It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

    I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

    " First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

    I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.
    There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

    So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

    This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

    Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.
    Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

    This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.
    Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

    @JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

    As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

    The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.
    They weren't my questions: I think they were @kinabalu 's.

    As for GRC's: there's a big issue that people wanting to change gender need to live as their new gender for two years. If you are a man transitioning to a woman, then it means you need to dress as a woman.

    IMV a man dressing as a woman going into a men's toilet is going to be in much more physical and mental danger (from comments, bullying in the latter case) than women are from them using women's toilets.

    Basically: banning people undergoing the transitioning process from using the toilets of their desired gender would be a big barrier to their transitioning.

    Perhaps there's a way around this, although I am far from an expert in these areas. Perhaps there should be a pre-GRC certificate; to say someone is undergoing a transitioning process. This can be obtained from a panel, in a similar manner to the Interim GRC that married people need to get before they get a GRC. Once you get this, you can use women's facilities: but it can be rescinded at any time.

    Although there are probably massive holes in that idea, too. Not least it makes an already convoluted process harder.

    As an aside, how do you police this anyway? How do you check that that person using that cubicle is, in fact, a woman?
    Toilets are an odd thing to focus on imo. And, yes, the policing aspect is interesting to ponder.
    My apologies to you. Your two questions are good ones. My mistake.
    No probs, cyclefree. In fact I sometimes think I'm well out of this one on PB. The opinion stats often quoted by my pal Owen Jones - that people are broadly relaxed about people changing gender - are not borne out on this site!

    Tell you one thing though, for all our differences on this, it's dwarfed by shared horror at what's going on with abortion rights in the States.

    Are the right in America hellbent on re-fighting the battles lost 2 generations ago? What's next do you think? Try to reactivate the Crow laws?

    I suppose if they are going to go through these struggles all over again we might get some good music out of it - but really, what a bad bad development.
    Sadly, not so fast. When it comes to slavery, equality before the law, segregation and goodness knows what else it is reasonably clear which side is the progressive cause.

    Abortion is very different for a number of reasons. There is nothing obviously progressive about killing the unborn, and nothing obviously progressive about denying women the right to choose.

    Each side assembles a formidably strong but also fatally flawed case; neither side can acknowledge the weaknesses in their own or the strength of the other side.

    So both sides get angry with the other.

    Though so different it has similarities with how Brexit plays out.
    A woman's right to choose whether she carries the unborn child inside her to term and motherhood - subject to limits regarding late termination - has been established for a generation or more. It's absolutely fundamental to the principle of equal worth of the sexes. The attempt to overturn it is not a matter of 'on the one hand this, on the other hand that' or 'both sides have a point but are too wound up to debate it sensibly'. There are plenty of issues like that but this isn't one of them.
    You see what I mean......
    Not really, no. I don't feel the imperative to detect a fine debating balance in the matter of rolling back women's reproductive rights to the dark ages.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, for space fans:

    New Zealand company Rocket Lab have given more details of their new Neutron rocket, which will be in the same class as SpaceX's Falcon 9. It has some very interesting features that make it rather different to the F9, whilst trying to solve the same problems.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kwAPr5G6WA

    (For those not particularly into space, Rocket Lab are one of three private newspace companies to launch rockets into orbit: SpaceX, Rocket Lab and, recently, Astra. Rocket Lab have had 19 successful flights and three failures.)

    That’s cool. How awesome does technology advance, when a public monopoly like NASA is exchanged for a private competition?
    Humans could leave earth orbit in 1972, we haven't done so since, so technology has regressed massively in space flight.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,643
    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, for space fans:

    New Zealand company Rocket Lab have given more details of their new Neutron rocket, which will be in the same class as SpaceX's Falcon 9. It has some very interesting features that make it rather different to the F9, whilst trying to solve the same problems.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kwAPr5G6WA

    (For those not particularly into space, Rocket Lab are one of three private newspace companies to launch rockets into orbit: SpaceX, Rocket Lab and, recently, Astra. Rocket Lab have had 19 successful flights and three failures.)

    That’s cool. How awesome does technology advance, when a public monopoly like NASA is exchanged for a private competition?
    TBF, SpaceX's development of F9 and Dragon/Dragon 2 were largely funded by NASA. AIUI Astra have received funds from the DoD for their launch-anytime-anywhere program.

    But the difference is: NASA and the DoD saying "We want this capability. Go build it" and letting the companies mostly get on with it, rather than NASA running the whole thing, as they did with the Shuttle.

    ULA is the interesting part of this: and they are stymied somewhat by Boeing IMO.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,593
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

    Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

    Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
    That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.
    I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

    Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.
    Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

    This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

    And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

    Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

    Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

    It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

    I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

    And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.
    It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

    I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

    " First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

    I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.
    There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

    So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

    This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

    Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.
    Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

    This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.
    Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

    @JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

    As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

    The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.
    They weren't my questions: I think they were @kinabalu 's.

    As for GRC's: there's a big issue that people wanting to change gender need to live as their new gender for two years. If you are a man transitioning to a woman, then it means you need to dress as a woman.

    IMV a man dressing as a woman going into a men's toilet is going to be in much more physical and mental danger (from comments, bullying in the latter case) than women are from them using women's toilets.

    Basically: banning people undergoing the transitioning process from using the toilets of their desired gender would be a big barrier to their transitioning.

    Perhaps there's a way around this, although I am far from an expert in these areas. Perhaps there should be a pre-GRC certificate; to say someone is undergoing a transitioning process. This can be obtained from a panel, in a similar manner to the Interim GRC that married people need to get before they get a GRC. Once you get this, you can use women's facilities: but it can be rescinded at any time.

    Although there are probably massive holes in that idea, too. Not least it makes an already convoluted process harder.

    As an aside, how do you police this anyway? How do you check that that person using that cubicle is, in fact, a woman?
    Toilets are an odd thing to focus on imo. And, yes, the policing aspect is interesting to ponder.
    One reason for the focus on toilets is because so many women and girls have endured some form of sexual assault in toilets. It was where I was first assaulted when I was about 13. This is not unusual.

    Policing: you need to be free to challenge without being accused of phobias. And when someone walks in who is obviously a man and not even trying to pass themselves as a woman or who has an erection or who indecently exposes themselves or who otherwise behaves in an appropriate way then they need to be told to leave and the authorities should support that ejection not accuse women.
    Male perverts accessing women's toilets and behaving indecently is a crime and most definitely should be treated seriously, regardless of whether the GRA is reformed or not.

    But, again, what's the logical link between an easier legal gender change process and the prevalence of that?
    The problem is that the male perverts, when caught in the women’s toilets, will say that they are trans women and that anyone questioning them is transphobic and committing offences under the Gender Recognition Act.

    Legislation designed to protect a tiny minority, has given free rein to a larger minority, who are despised by women and seen as an invasion of their protected spaces.
    What legislation are you talking about?

    Legally changing gender doesn't make it easier for a man to access a female toilet. So what's the link between the legal gender change process and a man accessing a female toilet?

    There isn't one unless toilets are policed for gender via a certificate. If they were, yes, a man could be motivated to change gender, get the cert, and show it to gain access.

    But they aren't. Nor are they policed for physical genital sex.

    Unless you're proposing these things - which you surely aren't - I don't see where you're going with the comment.
    The problem isn’t trans women. The problem is men, some of whom are sex offenders, posing as trans women.
    But this is still not addressing my point.

    How does making the legal gender change process easier make it more likely that such men will access female spaces that aren't policed for legal gender?
    Because the easier you make legal gender changes, the more likely that process is to be corrupted by male sex offenders falsely representing themselves as women.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,385
    HYUFD said:

    Eric Ciotti, on the conservative right of Les Republicains, wins the first round of the party's primary to choose its candidate for the 2022 presidential election. He will face the moderate Valeire Pecresse in the runoff, having also knocked out Barnier and Bertrand.

    Ciotti has already said he would endorse Zemmour in the runoff if he did not get through and Zemmour did and would be a clear shift to the right by Les Republicains if he does get the nomination to take on Macron

    Pecresse may still win in the runoff though after Bertrand has just endorsed her
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1466404166566350859?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ElectsContext/status/1466417762709000217?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ElectsContext/status/1466419582600626193?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ElectsContext/status/1466424026537070593?s=20

    Shows how much I know. The two I've heard of (Barnier, Bertrand) have been knocked out. The two I've never heard of (Ciotti, Pecresse) have got through. So do the French right go with the far right (Ciotti) or the moderate right (Pecresse), or, if Zemmmour, with the far far right? Interesting times.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,322

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, for space fans:

    New Zealand company Rocket Lab have given more details of their new Neutron rocket, which will be in the same class as SpaceX's Falcon 9. It has some very interesting features that make it rather different to the F9, whilst trying to solve the same problems.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kwAPr5G6WA

    (For those not particularly into space, Rocket Lab are one of three private newspace companies to launch rockets into orbit: SpaceX, Rocket Lab and, recently, Astra. Rocket Lab have had 19 successful flights and three failures.)

    That’s cool. How awesome does technology advance, when a public monopoly like NASA is exchanged for a private competition?
    TBF, SpaceX's development of F9 and Dragon/Dragon 2 were largely funded by NASA. AIUI Astra have received funds from the DoD for their launch-anytime-anywhere program.

    But the difference is: NASA and the DoD saying "We want this capability. Go build it" and letting the companies mostly get on with it, rather than NASA running the whole thing, as they did with the Shuttle.

    ULA is the interesting part of this: and they are stymied somewhat by Boeing IMO.
    ULA are stymied by LockMart and Boeing both demand large amounts of cash as return on their investments. Also they get told not to develop certain technologies that might upset other income streams....
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