Punters split almost 50-50 on an early BJ exit – politicalbetting.com

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Punters split almost 50-50 on an early BJ exit – politicalbetting.com

Apart from the by-elections one of the bigger political betting markets remains on the BJ exit date. This is something that is speculated all the time with those opposed to the current PM tending more to predict an early exit. Former PBer Alastair Meeks had this on his blog:

Read the full story here

eek

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

OnlyLivingBoy

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

Philip_Thompson

eek said:

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

Boris's position in the history books is already assured. Brexit alone would have done that (winning the referendum and getting it done), getting us through a once-in-a-century global pandemic is another thing.

I imagine he'd want to win another election. Being a double General Election winner would cement his place. That would bring him close to Cameron's tenure though and I think he's petty enough he'd want to last longer in place than Cameron, so ~2026 would be my guess.

tlg86

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

OnlyLivingBoy

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

Very happy to live on a street with a 20mph limit.

tlg86

OnlyLivingBoy said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

Very happy to live on a street with a 20mph limit.

If someone did 30 up my road, I'd think they were a complete dick, but I don't live on a main road like that one in Hampton.

IshmaelZ

kinabalu said:

JosiasJessop said:

Cyclefree said:

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.

I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.

Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.

It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

" First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.

There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.

Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.

OnlyLivingBoy

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

Boris's position in the history books is already assured. Brexit alone would have done that (winning the referendum and getting it done), getting us through a once-in-a-century global pandemic is another thing.

I imagine he'd want to win another election. Being a double General Election winner would cement his place. That would bring him close to Cameron's tenure though and I think he's petty enough he'd want to last longer in place than Cameron, so ~2026 would be my guess.

Fingers crossed that for once in his life the over-privileged arrogant fuck doesn't get what he wants.

TheScreamingEagles

eek said:

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

I was told by someone who knows Boris Johnson tells me he has two targets.

1) September 2025 (beating Dave's tenure as PM, he's still pissed off that Dave got a first and Boris didn't)

and ideally

2) January 2031 (beating Thatcher's tenure.)

Half jokingly, he'd like to win a war like Churchill and Thatcher.

noneoftheabove

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

If it was considered essential for work purposes was that not sufficient at the time? Obviously pushing the rules to the max, and against not just the spirit but a reasonable interpretation of them, but on the fringes of plausibility to allow the denial rules were broken.

rottenborough

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

I was told by someone who knows Boris Johnson tells me he has two targets.

1) September 2025 (beating Dave's tenure as PM, he's still pissed off that Dave got a first and Boris didn't)

and ideally

2) January 2031 (beating Thatcher's tenure.)

Half jokingly, he'd like to win a war like Churchill and Thatcher.

The Thatcher goal was all over the front page of a newspaper a few months ago. Can't remember which though.

The joke will have worn bloody thin by 2031 I can tell you.

IshmaelZ

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

As per previous thread I hired a Ford Puma the other day which knew, and limited itself to, the speed limit. This was in Scotland where all towns seem to be 20 mph. Must have saved me several tickets.

Nigelb

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

CorrectHorseBattery

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Philip_Thompson

Eastbourne is very much the exception not the norm and was held in completely different circumstances than today. The party was I believe (its before my time) bitterly divided over Europe, there was the poll tax, and Labour was polling double-digit poll leads.

None of those factors exist today. The schism over Europe is over, there's little in the way of major policy disputes like the poll tax and Labour aren't in the lead let alone 19% or 21% in the lead like the polls for the Mail on Sunday and the Independent on Sunday had around that time.

Lib Dems winning by-elections is far from unprecedented outside of Eastbourne and they are a non-event politically normally.

Brecon and Radnorshire is surely a more modern precedent, the Lib Dems won that and the Tories went on to win an eighty seat majority including winning back B&R.

rottenborough

London club owner Alex Proud says the company has lost £50 -100K of business in cancellations since Jenny Harries went on the airways at weekend.

OnlyLivingBoy

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

If it was considered essential for work purposes was that not sufficient at the time? Obviously pushing the rules to the max, and against not just the spirit but a reasonable interpretation of them, but on the fringes of plausibility to allow the denial rules were broken.

My comment was aimed more at Freeman's assertion that he didn't know if there was a party and at the same time he had spoken to those who attended the party so knew that the rules had been followed. Those two statements seem somewhat at odds with each other, no?

eek

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

I was told by someone who knows Boris Johnson tells me he has two targets.

1) September 2025 (beating Dave's tenure as PM, he's still pissed off that Dave got a first and Boris didn't)

and ideally

2) January 2031 (beating Thatcher's tenure.)

Half jokingly, he'd like to win a war like Churchill and Thatcher.

January 2031 doesn't leave him much time to earn serious money.

I can see September 2025 but equally I can see anytime post August next year Boris thinking blow this it ain't fun anymore.

Carnyx

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

If it was considered essential for work purposes was that not sufficient at the time? Obviously pushing the rules to the max, and against not just the spirit but a reasonable interpretation of them, but on the fringes of plausibility to allow the denial rules were broken.

It is necessary to drink alcohol and wear paper hats at work?

TheScreamingEagles

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

George Freeman was responsible for the worst burlesque show I ever attended.

MaxPB

GSK saying their antibody treatment has been tested successfully against variants that include the same mutations as Omicron. That could be a pretty big indicator that the current vaccines will also work pretty well. The major difference between Delta an Omicron may end up being how rapidly it spreads among people with no prior immunity.

eek

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

If it was considered essential for work purposes was that not sufficient at the time? Obviously pushing the rules to the max, and against not just the spirit but a reasonable interpretation of them, but on the fringes of plausibility to allow the denial rules were broken.

It was an office party for people who continued to work in No10 throughout the initial lockdown last year - you can see why no-one thought staying late for a few drinks wasn't an issue.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

I was told by someone who knows Boris Johnson tells me he has two targets.

1) September 2025 (beating Dave's tenure as PM, he's still pissed off that Dave got a first and Boris didn't)

and ideally

2) January 2031 (beating Thatcher's tenure.)

Half jokingly, he'd like to win a war like Churchill and Thatcher.

Thankfully the electorate, as opposed to the Tory selectorate, will get a say in a couple of those things.

Philip_Thompson

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

MikeSmithson

Philip_Thompson said:

Eastbourne is very much the exception not the norm and was held in completely different circumstances than today. The party was I believe (its before my time) bitterly divided over Europe, there was the poll tax, and Labour was polling double-digit poll leads.

None of those factors exist today. The schism over Europe is over, there's little in the way of major policy disputes like the poll tax and Labour aren't in the lead let alone 19% or 21% in the lead like the polls for the Mail on Sunday and the Independent on Sunday had around that time.

Lib Dems winning by-elections is far from unprecedented outside of Eastbourne and they are a non-event politically normally.

Brecon and Radnorshire is surely a more modern precedent, the Lib Dems won that and the Tories went on to win an eighty seat majority including winning back B&R.

A BoJo fanboy sounds as though he is making excuses already. But Richmond Park now back with LDs

noneoftheabove

OnlyLivingBoy said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

If it was considered essential for work purposes was that not sufficient at the time? Obviously pushing the rules to the max, and against not just the spirit but a reasonable interpretation of them, but on the fringes of plausibility to allow the denial rules were broken.

My comment was aimed more at Freeman's assertion that he didn't know if there was a party and at the same time he had spoken to those who attended the party so knew that the rules had been followed. Those two statements seem somewhat at odds with each other, no?

He might know there was a gathering for essential works purposes (perhaps even with alcohol and Xmas crackers...), that he has been told was in line with the rules, but does not know if it would count as a party or not. Or he might know it was indeed a party but not sure if it was a Winter Festivities party, or a Christmas party.

He has been around the likes of Johnson and Shapps long enough to be creative in his knowledge and statements.

turbotubbs

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

As per previous thread I hired a Ford Puma the other day which knew, and limited itself to, the speed limit. This was in Scotland where all towns seem to be 20 mph. Must have saved me several tickets.

Driving through Glasgow years ago my friend was convinced that 'Twenties Plenty' was a place, not a speed restriction...

Philip_Thompson

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

🙋‍♂️

eek

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

20mph limits are being implemented for air quality control reasons alongside safety..

rottenborough

JOHANNESBURG, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A senior Botswana health official said on Tuesday that 16 of the total 19 cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant detected in the country were asymptomatic

OnlyLivingBoy

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

I'm usually in the 20-25 kind of range in 20mph zones (which cover most of SE London) and that has kept me ticket free. The only speeding fine I have picked up was for 56mph on a small 50mph bit of the A1. I have no problems complying (more or less) with the lower urban limits, which I think make urban driving a lot less stressful.

Nigelb

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris himself .... and possibly HYUFD.

Nigel_Foremain

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris The Ludicrous would be a fitting historical epithet.

HYUFD

In 1990 Kinnock's Labour won the Mid Staffordshire by election from Thatcher's Tories with an over 20% swing.

By November 1990 when Thatcher resigned after almost half of Tory MPs voted for Heseltine against her KInnock's Labour were on over 45% in every poll and had a more than 10% lead over the Conservatives in most polls. Eastbourne was just the final blow.

Unless Starmer wins Old Bexley and Sidcup tonight or there is a big swing to Labour and Labour start to get big poll leads of 10%+ over the Tories then Boris will stay as Tory leader and PM regardless of what happens in North Shropshire

Nigel_Foremain

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

The advantage I see is that a lot of muppets see 30 and think that entitles them to go at 39. 20Mph limit and the same muppet probably does 29, so the objective is achieved.

CorrectHorseBattery

Nigelb said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris himself .... and possibly HYUFD.

One other member too, worryingly

Philip_Thompson

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Eastbourne is very much the exception not the norm and was held in completely different circumstances than today. The party was I believe (its before my time) bitterly divided over Europe, there was the poll tax, and Labour was polling double-digit poll leads.

None of those factors exist today. The schism over Europe is over, there's little in the way of major policy disputes like the poll tax and Labour aren't in the lead let alone 19% or 21% in the lead like the polls for the Mail on Sunday and the Independent on Sunday had around that time.

Lib Dems winning by-elections is far from unprecedented outside of Eastbourne and they are a non-event politically normally.

Brecon and Radnorshire is surely a more modern precedent, the Lib Dems won that and the Tories went on to win an eighty seat majority including winning back B&R.

A BoJo fanboy sounds as though he is making excuses already. But Richmond Park now back with LDs

Considering you voted for Corbyn's Labour Party on the same day as the Party I voted for won an eighty seat majority, have you ever stopped to think that what I'm saying might actually have a point?

Have you ever stopped to think that only listening to people who hate the biggest election winner in decades may actually leave you out of touch?

I couldn't care less if the Lib Dems win Richmond Park or North Shropshire or any Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election. The Lib Dems can win by-elections until the cows come home, doesn't win you General Elections does it?

IshmaelZ

turbotubbs said:

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

As per previous thread I hired a Ford Puma the other day which knew, and limited itself to, the speed limit. This was in Scotland where all towns seem to be 20 mph. Must have saved me several tickets.

Driving through Glasgow years ago my friend was convinced that 'Twenties Plenty' was a place, not a speed restriction...

I thought it was a daily alcohol units target.

noneoftheabove

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

If it was considered essential for work purposes was that not sufficient at the time? Obviously pushing the rules to the max, and against not just the spirit but a reasonable interpretation of them, but on the fringes of plausibility to allow the denial rules were broken.

It is necessary to drink alcohol and wear paper hats at work?

When I started work nearly everyone drank Friday lunchtimes, enough to get a little tipsy at least, and about half drank most lunchtimes, so not sure consumption of alcohol removes the possibility that work is done. Paper hats are less ridiculous and far more comfortable than ties imo.

Carnyx

Nigel_Foremain said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris The Ludicrous would be a fitting historical epithet.

'Clown' seems more likely, from what people say, though it's not a term I intend to use for Mr Johnson here either way.

Pulpstar

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

20mph limits are being implemented for air quality control reasons alongside safety..

So will they go when we're all electric ?

Carnyx

noneoftheabove said:

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

If it was considered essential for work purposes was that not sufficient at the time? Obviously pushing the rules to the max, and against not just the spirit but a reasonable interpretation of them, but on the fringes of plausibility to allow the denial rules were broken.

It is necessary to drink alcohol and wear paper hats at work?

When I started work nearly everyone drank Friday lunchtimes, enough to get a little tipsy at least, and about half drank most lunchtimes, so not sure consumption of alcohol removes the possibility that work is done. Paper hats are less ridiculous and far more comfortable than ties imo.

I remember those days - but they were (a) off premises and (b) not in working time.

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

GSK saying their antibody treatment has been tested successfully against variants that include the same mutations as Omicron. That could be a pretty big indicator that the current vaccines will also work pretty well. The major difference between Delta an Omicron may end up being how rapidly it spreads among people with no prior immunity.

Not sure about that - it depends on the detail of their antibody cocktail.
I note that US researchers showed that Regeneron's was rendered fairly ineffective, while the new AZN antibody cocktail looked significantly better.

eek

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris thinks he will be.

The irony is that I think the longer he stays the worse his legacy will be.

At the moment it's Brexit and Covid (both stories which still play well for him). Brexit will fall apart long term if levelling up doesn't occur so it's all downhill from here.

I really do think the best time for Boris to leave will be 2022 but it's hard to understand Boris's thinking here. I suspect he doesn't see the lack of an upside going forward.

Gardenwalker

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Eastbourne is very much the exception not the norm and was held in completely different circumstances than today. The party was I believe (its before my time) bitterly divided over Europe, there was the poll tax, and Labour was polling double-digit poll leads.

None of those factors exist today. The schism over Europe is over, there's little in the way of major policy disputes like the poll tax and Labour aren't in the lead let alone 19% or 21% in the lead like the polls for the Mail on Sunday and the Independent on Sunday had around that time.

Lib Dems winning by-elections is far from unprecedented outside of Eastbourne and they are a non-event politically normally.

Brecon and Radnorshire is surely a more modern precedent, the Lib Dems won that and the Tories went on to win an eighty seat majority including winning back B&R.

A BoJo fanboy sounds as though he is making excuses already. But Richmond Park now back with LDs

I had utterly dismissed the LD chances in North Shropshire, but to see the Tory fanboys suddenly pop up and dismiss by-elections as trivial tells me they must now be close.

40% chance I reckon.

Nigel_Foremain

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

🙋‍♂️

Haha. I always thought you were a young chap. I now realise you are Stanley Johnson and I claim my £5 (before you slap me on the arse).

IshmaelZ

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Could happen. Most people probably only know one thing about any given PM (Churchill war, Attlee NHS, Eden Suez, Blair Iraq). His long term epitaph will be Got Brexit Done.

turbotubbs

MaxPB said:

GSK saying their antibody treatment has been tested successfully against variants that include the same mutations as Omicron. That could be a pretty big indicator that the current vaccines will also work pretty well. The major difference between Delta an Omicron may end up being how rapidly it spreads among people with no prior immunity.

Yep. For all the hyperventilating by some, I strongly suspect that this is going to be Delta on steroids in terms of spreading in the covid naive, but not much for the fully vaccinated.
If I were in charge in a European nation who didn't unlock this summer and ride the exit wave, I might just be starting to wonder if I should have done so...

Gardenwalker

Nigelb said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris himself .... and possibly HYUFD.

The question is rather, will he go down as the worst?

Carnyx

eek said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris thinks he will be.

The irony is that I think the longer he stays the worse his legacy will be.

At the moment it's Brexit and Covid (both stories which still play well for him). Brexit will fall apart long term if levelling up doesn't occur so it's all downhill from here.

I really do think the best time for Boris to leave will be 2022 but it's hard to understand Boris's thinking here. I suspect he doesn't see the lack of an upside going forward.

Wonder what Mrs J's view is?

Nigelb

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

The advantage I see is that a lot of muppets see 30 and think that entitles them to go at 39. 20Mph limit and the same muppet probably does 29, so the objective is achieved.

The difference is that there are a lot more muppets in a 20mph zone.
I would have gone with 25 - which probably would have had a very similar effect, and caused less dissent.

turbotubbs

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

The advantage I see is that a lot of muppets see 30 and think that entitles them to go at 39. 20Mph limit and the same muppet probably does 29, so the objective is achieved.

If so then just blanket it as 20, and do away with 30.

maaarsh

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I did one after being caught doing 57 on an empty 3 lane motorway which was subject to a 500 yard section of 50 limit with a couple of fine grubbers parked hidden by the side of the change back to national limit. Really enthuses you with the sense of purpose and mission they must have.

Carnyx

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Could happen. Most people probably only know one thing about any given PM (Churchill war, Attlee NHS, Eden Suez, Blair Iraq). His long term epitaph will be Got Brexit Done.

Those are 'significant' rather than necessarily 'great' attributes, of course ...

tlg86

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

20mph limits are being implemented for air quality control reasons alongside safety..

I'm sceptical about that working. I can understand the M5 through West Brom being 60mph rather than 70mph for that reason, but I doubt 20mph is much better than 30mph.

Nigelb

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

I'm usually in the 20-25 kind of range in 20mph zones (which cover most of SE London) and that has kept me ticket free. The only speeding fine I have picked up was for 56mph on a small 50mph bit of the A1. I have no problems complying (more or less) with the lower urban limits, which I think make urban driving a lot less stressful.

My usual speed in London is nearer 10mph...

Nigel_Foremain

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Could happen. Most people probably only know one thing about any given PM (Churchill war, Attlee NHS, Eden Suez, Blair Iraq). His long term epitaph will be Got Brexit Done.

Yep. The obvious parallel therefore Eden and Suez; based on the parallels of pointlessness, self harm, and the prelude to Britain's declining influence. Eden was at least a good Foreign Sec tho!

Pulpstar

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

GSK saying their antibody treatment has been tested successfully against variants that include the same mutations as Omicron. That could be a pretty big indicator that the current vaccines will also work pretty well. The major difference between Delta an Omicron may end up being how rapidly it spreads among people with no prior immunity.

Yep. For all the hyperventilating by some, I strongly suspect that this is going to be Delta on steroids in terms of spreading in the covid naive, but not much for the fully vaccinated.
If I were in charge in a European nation who didn't unlock this summer and ride the exit wave, I might just be starting to wonder if I should have done so...

I don't think people appreciate just how big the booster effect is.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2786096

The median titer level increased significantly after the third dose, from a median of 440 AU/mL (IQR, 294-923) to 25 468 AU/mL (IQR, 14 203-36 618) (P < .001)

Israeli study : 57* effect.

Nigel_Foremain

Nigelb said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

The advantage I see is that a lot of muppets see 30 and think that entitles them to go at 39. 20Mph limit and the same muppet probably does 29, so the objective is achieved.

The difference is that there are a lot more muppets in a 20mph zone.
I would have gone with 25 - which probably would have had a very similar effect, and caused less dissent.

A fair point!

noneoftheabove

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

I'm usually in the 20-25 kind of range in 20mph zones (which cover most of SE London) and that has kept me ticket free. The only speeding fine I have picked up was for 56mph on a small 50mph bit of the A1. I have no problems complying (more or less) with the lower urban limits, which I think make urban driving a lot less stressful.

On the flip side you get cautious drivers who see a speed limit of 20 and decide to do 15 to be safe, which is really closer to13 as the speedo is always lower than the real speed. Then you are driving along in a long stream of cars with cyclists overtaking, sometimes on both the outside and inside.

It will be interesting to see the accident data as we start to get it from areas that were reduced to 20 for reasons beyond accident hot spots/schools/etc. I suspect there will be more car/cyclist collisions, but hopefully they are less severe.

tlg86

turbotubbs said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

The advantage I see is that a lot of muppets see 30 and think that entitles them to go at 39. 20Mph limit and the same muppet probably does 29, so the objective is achieved.

If so then just blanket it as 20, and do away with 30.

Indeed. I think this is a London thing. If Surrey tried this on we'd kick off big time. It's the same with parking on pavements. A friend of mine got a ticket for having a wheel on a pavement in Northolt. I said that if they started doing that where I live, there would be murders!

Eabhal

I love the 20 mph limits. As someone who cycles at that speed around town, it means I can sit in the middle of the lane, preventing dangerous close overtakes, with no legit protest from drivers available.

My response to the occasional blaring horn is to slow down until they get the message.

*ducks*

(FYI In theory you should give bikes as much room as you would a car)

Philip_Thompson

Carnyx said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Could happen. Most people probably only know one thing about any given PM (Churchill war, Attlee NHS, Eden Suez, Blair Iraq). His long term epitaph will be Got Brexit Done.

Those are 'significant' rather than necessarily 'great' attributes, of course ...

The 'great' is typically if what you do is successful at the time and whether it lasts, rather than an objective measure of attributes though.

Churchill had an alcohol problem and many character flaws but won his war and is the greatest of all time as a result. Thatcher won her war too, as well as successfully privatising and reforming the state.

Eden lost his war. Blair's war was a failure in the end too. Eden may have had better 'attributes' than Churchill according to some, but it will never matter now.

Attlee's NHS has lasted the test of time, even if almost everything else he did was a disastrous failure.

Cameron failed to win the referendum, May failed to get Brexit done. Boris won the referendum and got Brexit done and got us through Covid with the vaccines.

Over time people will forget the 'clown' jibes or even laugh about them if they think about it, like we laugh at Churchill reportedly saying to someone saying "you're drunk" by saying "madam you're ugly, but I'll be sober in the morning."

What he's achieved already is putting him firmly in the 'great' category unless for some reason Brexit is a failure that gets reversed.

Carnyx

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

I'm usually in the 20-25 kind of range in 20mph zones (which cover most of SE London) and that has kept me ticket free. The only speeding fine I have picked up was for 56mph on a small 50mph bit of the A1. I have no problems complying (more or less) with the lower urban limits, which I think make urban driving a lot less stressful.

On the flip side you get cautious drivers who see a speed limit of 20 and decide to do 15 to be safe, which is really closer to13 as the speedo is always lower than the real speed. Then you are driving along in a long stream of cars with cyclists overtaking, sometimes on both the outside and inside.

It will be interesting to see the accident data as we start to get it from areas that were reduced to 20 for reasons beyond accident hot spots/schools/etc. I suspect there will be more car/cyclist collisions, but hopefully they are less severe.

THe kinetic energy at 20mph is 4/9 that at 30mph - a considerable reduction, better than 50%. But also the sudden accelerations on the victim's body will be a lot less.

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

Eastbourne is very much the exception not the norm and was held in completely different circumstances than today. The party was I believe (its before my time) bitterly divided over Europe, there was the poll tax, and Labour was polling double-digit poll leads.

None of those factors exist today. The schism over Europe is over, there's little in the way of major policy disputes like the poll tax and Labour aren't in the lead let alone 19% or 21% in the lead like the polls for the Mail on Sunday and the Independent on Sunday had around that time.

Lib Dems winning by-elections is far from unprecedented outside of Eastbourne and they are a non-event politically normally.

Brecon and Radnorshire is surely a more modern precedent, the Lib Dems won that and the Tories went on to win an eighty seat majority including winning back B&R.

Correct, the final opinion poll before the 18th October 1990 Eastbourne by election was ICM on 13th October which had Kinnock's Labour on 49% and Thatcher's Tories on 36% with the LDs on 9%. Gallup on 1st October had Kinnock's Labour on 46% with Thatcher's Tories on just 31.5% and the LDs on 14%. Starmer Labour is on nowhere near those leads now and is generally level pegging with Boris' Tories
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

Anabobazina

rottenborough said:

London club owner Alex Proud says the company has lost £50 -100K of business in cancellations since Jenny Harries went on the airways at weekend.

Yep. And there will be more like him. It was an absolutely moronic intervention from Harries. She should hang her head in shame.

Eabhal

Eabhal said:

I love the 20 mph limits. As someone who cycles at that speed around town, it means I can sit in the middle of the lane, preventing dangerous close overtakes, with no legit protest from drivers available.

My response to the occasional blaring horn is to slow down until they get the message.

*ducks*

(FYI In theory you should give bikes as much room as you would a car)

OTOH, I got done doing 54, down hill, on the frankly ridiculous 40 mph limit on the dual carriageway coming into Edinburgh from the west.

turbotubbs

Yep - I think many have the impression its just topping up to the level after two shots, which it definitely isn't, its way better.
There are still people complaining that 'full vaccination' means two shots, so why need boosters? Well based on evidence, it looks like:
(a) Three shots might be the magic number
(b) There was never anything magic about it being two in the first place.

Anabobazina

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

The advantage I see is that a lot of muppets see 30 and think that entitles them to go at 39. 20Mph limit and the same muppet probably does 29, so the objective is achieved.

Yes. If a kid walks out in front of you at 20mph vs 30mph – well the difference in outcomes for that kid is quite something.

That said, I'd have 80mph limits on the motorways. 70mph is needlessly slow on the open road.

Burgessian

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Eastbourne is very much the exception not the norm and was held in completely different circumstances than today. The party was I believe (its before my time) bitterly divided over Europe, there was the poll tax, and Labour was polling double-digit poll leads.

None of those factors exist today. The schism over Europe is over, there's little in the way of major policy disputes like the poll tax and Labour aren't in the lead let alone 19% or 21% in the lead like the polls for the Mail on Sunday and the Independent on Sunday had around that time.

Lib Dems winning by-elections is far from unprecedented outside of Eastbourne and they are a non-event politically normally.

Brecon and Radnorshire is surely a more modern precedent, the Lib Dems won that and the Tories went on to win an eighty seat majority including winning back B&R.

A BoJo fanboy sounds as though he is making excuses already. But Richmond Park now back with LDs

True, but Richmond Park had for years been a LibDem target seat and was held by them during the Blair years. Part of the SW London orange bloc along with Twickenham etc. North Shropshire is very different and will almost certainly be regained in the event of LibDem success in the by-election (which, BTW, I think very likely.)

slade

As well as OB and S there are 10 local by-elections today. Conservatives are on the defensive in 6 - Adur, Breckland, Highland, Lancaster (x2), and Wealden; in Worthing there is an Ind elected as Con defence. There is a Labour defence in Newport, a Lib Dem defence in North Norfolk, and a Residents defence in Warwick.

Philip_Thompson

Anabobazina said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

The advantage I see is that a lot of muppets see 30 and think that entitles them to go at 39. 20Mph limit and the same muppet probably does 29, so the objective is achieved.

Yes. If a kid walks out in front of you at 20mph vs 30mph – well the difference in outcomes for that kid is quite something.

That said, I'd have 80mph limits on the motorways. 70mph is needlessly slow on the open road.

I dropped from doing 80mph to 70mph on the motorway when I got my car in 2010 and it shows on the dashboard the mpg you're getting in real time.

At 70mph I get about 38 mpg.
At 80mph I get about 25 mpg.

Considering driving at 80 instead of 70 only saves a few seconds per mile, it simply isn't worth the extra fuel consumption to drive at that speed for my vehicle at least.

Pulpstar

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

20mph limits make sense outside schools, not much else.

They seem to be increasingly used in town centres which is silly. I would have them outside a school and then back to thirty.

The advantage I see is that a lot of muppets see 30 and think that entitles them to go at 39. 20Mph limit and the same muppet probably does 29, so the objective is achieved.

Yes. If a kid walks out in front of you at 20mph vs 30mph – well the difference in outcomes for that kid is quite something.

That said, I'd have 80mph limits on the motorways. 70mph is needlessly slow on the open road.

I dropped from doing 80mph to 70mph on the motorway when I got my car in 2010 and it shows on the dashboard the mpg you're getting in real time.

At 70mph I get about 38 mpg.
At 80mph I get about 25 mpg.

Considering driving at 80 instead of 70 only saves a few seconds per mile, it simply isn't worth the extra fuel consumption to drive at that speed for my vehicle at least.

Blimey, sounds thirsty !

MattW

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

I'm usually in the 20-25 kind of range in 20mph zones (which cover most of SE London) and that has kept me ticket free. The only speeding fine I have picked up was for 56mph on a small 50mph bit of the A1. I have no problems complying (more or less) with the lower urban limits, which I think make urban driving a lot less stressful.

On the flip side you get cautious drivers who see a speed limit of 20 and decide to do 15 to be safe, which is really closer to13 as the speedo is always lower than the real speed. Then you are driving along in a long stream of cars with cyclists overtaking, sometimes on both the outside and inside.

It will be interesting to see the accident data as we start to get it from areas that were reduced to 20 for reasons beyond accident hot spots/schools/etc. I suspect there will be more car/cyclist collisions, but hopefully they are less severe.

IMO 20mph is reasonable as a justified limit for residential sideroads, and roads in estates. Main / loop roads should be 30. Making rat runs slower seems to me a good thing.

The risk of severe injury to pedestrians in a collision more than halves between 30mph and 20mph, which I'd say is justification on its own for 20mph as he general limit in streets within residential areas.

I tend to set the cruise control to 30kph and let it roll on in such an environment.

rottenborough

F*ck business agenda going well, I see...


Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
George Freeman, business minister, suggests a small gathering of 5-6 people who work together regularly is fine for Christmas parties

He suggests that businesses with parties with 100s people should consider whether that is sensible

CarlottaVance

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

No one believed Thatcher would in 1981.....not long for this earth, time one of the chaps took over, we tried, but what did I tell you?

Northern_Al

eek said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris thinks he will be.

The irony is that I think the longer he stays the worse his legacy will be.

At the moment it's Brexit and Covid (both stories which still play well for him). Brexit will fall apart long term if levelling up doesn't occur so it's all downhill from here.

I really do think the best time for Boris to leave will be 2022 but it's hard to understand Boris's thinking here. I suspect he doesn't see the lack of an upside going forward.

I don't agree. I really do think the best time for Boris to leave would be 2021.

Anabobazina

rottenborough said:

F*ck business agenda going well, I see...


Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
George Freeman, business minister, suggests a small gathering of 5-6 people who work together regularly is fine for Christmas parties

He suggests that businesses with parties with 100s people should consider whether that is sensible

They just cannot help themselves, can they?

eek

Burgessian said:

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Eastbourne is very much the exception not the norm and was held in completely different circumstances than today. The party was I believe (its before my time) bitterly divided over Europe, there was the poll tax, and Labour was polling double-digit poll leads.

None of those factors exist today. The schism over Europe is over, there's little in the way of major policy disputes like the poll tax and Labour aren't in the lead let alone 19% or 21% in the lead like the polls for the Mail on Sunday and the Independent on Sunday had around that time.

Lib Dems winning by-elections is far from unprecedented outside of Eastbourne and they are a non-event politically normally.

Brecon and Radnorshire is surely a more modern precedent, the Lib Dems won that and the Tories went on to win an eighty seat majority including winning back B&R.

A BoJo fanboy sounds as though he is making excuses already. But Richmond Park now back with LDs

True, but Richmond Park had for years been a LibDem target seat and was held by them during the Blair years. Part of the SW London orange bloc along with Twickenham etc. North Shropshire is very different and will almost certainly be regained in the event of LibDem success in the by-election (which, BTW, I think very likely.)

The shame about North Shropshire is that the Tory candidate does appear to be very good but his political career will be blighted / stopped in it's tracks by the by-election he should have won.

Philip_Thompson

eek said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris thinks he will be.

The irony is that I think the longer he stays the worse his legacy will be.

At the moment it's Brexit and Covid (both stories which still play well for him). Brexit will fall apart long term if levelling up doesn't occur so it's all downhill from here.

I really do think the best time for Boris to leave will be 2022 but it's hard to understand Boris's thinking here. I suspect he doesn't see the lack of an upside going forward.

If he goes next year he's only ever going to be a 'crisis' PM. Brexit and Covid.

If he stays on then the upside is potentially winning a second General Election and a few years of normality for his tenure before he steps down.

Cyclefree

IshmaelZ said:

kinabalu said:

JosiasJessop said:

Cyclefree said:

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, it's the scientific definition. Broad definitions obviously blur boundaries. Buggering about with language is one of the ways certain people (not you) are trying to 'win' arguments in this area by denouncing those with the temerity to disagree as various types of '-phobes' and '-ists'.

Hermaphrodites were referred to in classical mythology. That doesn't make them commonplace. I do agree that being in a tiny minority doesn't mean they should be ignored. Feel rather sad that the South African sprinter (Caster Semenya? [sp]) has had far rougher treatment than biological men who have identified as women.

Female sports needs to be a category for cisgender women only. Everyone else can go into mens ( Which could probably do with being renamed open ).
That effectively bars trans women from sport, but is needed to preserve female sport integrity - and if Semenya is deemed to be a woman (Another argument in itself) she should be able to compete without lowering her testosterone.

I agree with this. Competing at a top level in sport is not a fundamental right, and it's an area where fairness counts.

Although I'd argue that top sports people are generally freaks of nature anyway, to a certain extent. A combination of genetic traits that allow them to succeed at a sport, where someone more 'average' would not, however hard they trained. Michael Phelps' large feet, hyper-extendible joints, long torso and short legs all make him perfect for swimming.

Agreed. But this is not the approach being taken by sports bodies. They are ignoring material reality in favour of feelings. The material reality is that males once they have gone through male puberty are and always will be naturally stronger than women, regardless of how they subsequently identify and even if they go through a full transition. They are allowed to have levels of testosterone in their body that would get a woman athlete banned for doping. How can this possibly be fair.

This material reality means that trans athletes (male to female) have an inherent advantage. It means that womens' sport is dead or largely meaningless because it will be male bodies winning the prizes.

And yet we have reached the stage that feelings are allowed to override material scientific reality. And it is largely the feelings of men which are deemed more important than the concerns, feelings or material reality of women.

Caster Semenya is as I understand it a woman who naturally has large amounts of testosterone in her body. This may be very unusual but is no reason for banning her. But her position is very different from those with male bodies claiming to be women. They should not compete in womens' sport where physical strength matters. A separate transgender category can be created or they can remain in male categories. Where strength does not matter the issue does not really arise and transwomen can compete in female categories.

Or we could I suppose allow women athletes to dope themselves up the eyeballs as women athletes behind the Iron Curtain did so that they can compete on equal terms with transwomen. That is the logic of the transwomen are women approach. The fact that this renders womens' sport meaningless and has huge health impacts for women doing this are unfortunate consequences but, hey, who cares about those.

It is long past the time that we need to say that reality matters and if this does not please those who think that you can simply pretend that it does not exist simply by affirming it, too bad.

I know this feels like a niche issue to some. But it isn't. First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter. Second, because this is stopping any real focus on what transpeople actually need - which is better and earlier medical help so that they can live their lives happily.

And finally because this is another current in the whole "I have my own alternative facts" approach to life and politics which has so demeaned public life and culture in countries like the US. It is a very Trumpian and narcissistic approach to the world, similar to the anti-vaccination movement and other ludicrous conspiracy theories - people thinking that what they say - however untethered to reality - is real, should be validated by others and allowed to inform policy, no matter how dangerous or absurd the consequences.

It's all really messy. However - and I might be wrong - isn't an added complexity with Semenya that performance doping often uses testosterone, and therefore she was falling foul of the drug testing regime as well - until she proved they were her natural levels? From memory, women like Semenya might be forced to take drugs to get her testosterone levels down. That's really wrong IMO.

I just don't see competing in sports as anything like a fundamental right; and it's a place where 'fairness' matters. Hence, with regret, I've formed my position (which in this case is the same as yours).

" First, because women are a majority of the population (just) not some tiny minority so changes which harm their rights matter."

I disagree with this. Numbers should not matter wrt rights, and changes that discriminate against a minority also matter. That's true for sex, gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, etc.

There's 2 key questions and imo they can be uncoupled. What should the process be to legally change gender? Which things in society (if any) should be default governed by sex not gender?

So, eg, you could support a streamlined process for gender change but at the same time think that (eg) pro sports and prisons should be default sex based. Or, the opposite, you could think the gender change process should remain highly controlled and medicalized but that once done birth sex is irrelevant and gender is the correct default criterion for almost everything.

This type of shade never sees the light of day. It's either 'Pure self-ID for gender and sex doesn't matter a jot' or it's 'transgenderism flies in the face of science and is a perverts' charter representing an existential threat to women and their rights'.

Perhaps both sides feel their extremist hyperbole is mainly a response to that of the other side's. The debate certainly seems more 'vibrant' here than elsewhere. Eg it will be interesting to see how things develop in Germany where (aiui) the new government is pledged to implement reforms very similar to those the May government were looking at in 2018.

Well, it sees the light of day from me. It's a pure numbers game: BOTH there are genuine transgender people who deserve support and protection AND there are chancers around who are happy to look for sex, unfair sporting success, etc under the guise of transgenderism.

This isn't even a new or interesting problem. look at scoutmasters: there's a lot of men who want to become scoutmasters for the most praiseworthy reasons imaginable, and a lot of men who want to exploit the kiddie fiddling possibilities of the situation. We support, encourage and train the first lot, and try to vigilantly exclude the second. We err on the side of overvigilance, or try to, and that inevitably means that injustices occur. That's life. The same principle requires that gender dysphoric formerly male prisoners can stay in male prisons and bloody well lump it. Not difficult.

Suggest you look at Girl Guides who are currently, after complaints by parents, doing an inquiry into how the Head Guide in Nottingham is a man with a BDSM fetish who also poses pictures of themselves cradling illegal guns. They have also had issues re retaliation against female whistleblowers who have raised concern about whether they are taking their safeguarding obligations seriously. They are also giving guidance on what contraceptives to give 13 year old girls on guide trips even though (a) 13 is way below the age of consent and (b) such trips should be female only so why would contraception be needed.

@JosiasJessop's 2 questions are a sensible start. My answer to the first is that an application for a GRC should be as now ie it should require an objective external medical test because of the legal implications of such a change not just for the person concerned but for others and society at large. Expecting an external medical diagnosis is no more onerous than expecting one before getting cancer treatment. The delays are an issue of resources not a reason for doing away with the checks.

As to the second, the answer should be risk based. I would have the default as sex but permit gender provided there was little or no risk to others of doing so. We do not yet have data on whether men who do have gender dysphoria still remain in any sense an actual or potential risk to women. Until we do safeguarding should take priority. Nor do we know how many men who claim to be trans are in fact suffering from autogynephilia (do not Google this at work). Again until we do, men with male bodies should be kept out of female spaces.

The trouble is that those proposing very significant change are not asking these sensible questions. They simply pooh-pooh the very idea that there might be a conflict or risks or detrimental effects on others. They have got their way for quite a long time, in part by their insistence on "no debate". But women are now appreciating what these changes could mean and are fighting back and demanding both a debate and that no changes be made until these and many other questions are asked and answered. That is not extremism. It is sensible.

LostPassword

eek said:

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

Surely Cameron's six and a bit years are the benchmark? They're from broadly the same sort of social background, which I think matters.

kinabalu

The excellent Alistair Meeks is doing what (imo) he sometimes did here on PB during the parliamentary Brexit wars. He's allowing what he hopes will happen to drive his analysis of probabilities.

Leaving aside amateur hour psychic postulating that Boris Johnson will soon get sick of being PM and decide to throw it over for a life of easy money from books and after dinner speeches - I rate this opinion as highly as I do the one derived in similar vein that Nicola Sturgeon 'doesn't really want independence' - what are we left with?

He might - and it's still only a might - be thrown over by his party if Lab establish a clear and persistent poll lead AND the polls say that someone who is a realistic alternative would turn it around, inc in the red wall. We are miles from either of these scenarios being in place.

There is a non-trivial chance of Boris Johnson not leading the Cons into the next election but it's a medium to long shot - and if you can get even money on a medium to long shot you know what to do. I already have a while ago.

Theuniondivvie

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

Schrödinger’s piss up.

DecrepiterJohnL

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

We come back to the question - at which point does Boris think he's done enough to make the history books.

Boris staying beyond August 2022 so he beats May's tenure length would be my be my minimal starting point.

I was told by someone who knows Boris Johnson tells me he has two targets.

1) September 2025 (beating Dave's tenure as PM, he's still pissed off that Dave got a first and Boris didn't)

and ideally

2) January 2031 (beating Thatcher's tenure.)

Half jokingly, he'd like to win a war like Churchill and Thatcher.

January 2031 doesn't leave him much time to earn serious money.

I can see September 2025 but equally I can see anytime post August next year Boris thinking blow this it ain't fun anymore.

Will JRM be a factor in Boris's thinking? JRM is in trouble for not declaring he'd lent himself £6 million, which is an awful lot more than Boris earns or has ever earned in a year. Likewise Cameron's cut from Greensill, if it had come off. If Boris wants to make serious money, the clock is ticking because he is already older than Cameron and Blair when they retired.

Cyclefree

Anabobazina said:

rottenborough said:

London club owner Alex Proud says the company has lost £50 -100K of business in cancellations since Jenny Harries went on the airways at weekend.

Yep. And there will be more like him. It was an absolutely moronic intervention from Harries. She should hang her head in shame.

Tell the Cyclefree family .... 🤬

A deliberately hostile act against hospitality done in such a way as to cause damage at a key time of year after a really shit 2 years but without requiring any compensation or support.

Foxy

Carnyx said:

eek said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nobody honestly believes that Johnson is going to down in history as a great PM, do they

Boris thinks he will be.

The irony is that I think the longer he stays the worse his legacy will be.

At the moment it's Brexit and Covid (both stories which still play well for him). Brexit will fall apart long term if levelling up doesn't occur so it's all downhill from here.

I really do think the best time for Boris to leave will be 2022 but it's hard to understand Boris's thinking here. I suspect he doesn't see the lack of an upside going forward.

Wonder what Mrs J's view is?

She doesn't want to go back to being a nobody.

noneoftheabove

MattW said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

I'm usually in the 20-25 kind of range in 20mph zones (which cover most of SE London) and that has kept me ticket free. The only speeding fine I have picked up was for 56mph on a small 50mph bit of the A1. I have no problems complying (more or less) with the lower urban limits, which I think make urban driving a lot less stressful.

On the flip side you get cautious drivers who see a speed limit of 20 and decide to do 15 to be safe, which is really closer to13 as the speedo is always lower than the real speed. Then you are driving along in a long stream of cars with cyclists overtaking, sometimes on both the outside and inside.

It will be interesting to see the accident data as we start to get it from areas that were reduced to 20 for reasons beyond accident hot spots/schools/etc. I suspect there will be more car/cyclist collisions, but hopefully they are less severe.

IMO 20mph is reasonable as a justified limit for residential sideroads, and roads in estates. Main / loop roads should be 30. Making rat runs slower seems to me a good thing.

The risk of severe injury to pedestrians in a collision more than halves between 30mph and 20mph, which I'd say is justification on its own for 20mph as he general limit in streets within residential areas.

I tend to set the cruise control to 30kph and let it roll on in such an environment.

Average traffic speed during the daytime according to TFL around here is 7.1mph anyway. Slower than the horse and cart!

LostPassword

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

I was overtaken by an HGV one time in the 20mph zone of the Scottish town on the road between Cairnryan and Glasgow.

Not, perhaps, what was intended when the 20mph speed limit was introduced.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

George Freeman was responsible for the worst burlesque show I ever attended.

Two rosettes, one tit.

NickyBreakspear

slade said:

As well as OB and S there are 10 local by-elections today. Conservatives are on the defensive in 6 - Adur, Breckland, Highland, Lancaster (x2), and Wealden; in Worthing there is an Ind elected as Con defence. There is a Labour defence in Newport, a Lib Dem defence in North Norfolk, and a Residents defence in Warwick.

Andrew Teale's analysis of today's by-elections. https://www.britainelects.com/2021/12/02/previewing-the-super-thursday-by-elections-of-02-dec-2021/

As usual it is very detailed.

Carnyx

slade said:

As well as OB and S there are 10 local by-elections today. Conservatives are on the defensive in 6 - Adur, Breckland, Highland, Lancaster (x2), and Wealden; in Worthing there is an Ind elected as Con defence. There is a Labour defence in Newport, a Lib Dem defence in North Norfolk, and a Residents defence in Warwick.

Hmm, in the 2017 election the deceased Tory gentleman in Highland was elected third out of four elected for one of those Scottish multimember constituencies. Normally as by elections are FPTP you compare them with the first to be elected in the general election, not who actually is being replaced.

The first to be elected was an individual Independent, then the next was SNP. But the winning Independent has since declared himself as a Tory after a phase of calling himself ‘Real Independent’ (capitals perhaps put ijn by the newspaper).

So anyone's guess whether this effectively FPTP by election can be called a Tory defence and whether it will be successful or not.


https://www.obantimes.co.uk/2020/07/03/lochabers-andrew-baxter-kicked-out-of-highland-council-independents-group/
https://www.highland.gov.uk/councillors/28/andrew_baxter
https://www.highland.gov.uk/byelection

Edit: Ah - @NickyBreakspear has posted a very useful link, thanks.

Burgessian

eek said:

Burgessian said:

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Eastbourne is very much the exception not the norm and was held in completely different circumstances than today. The party was I believe (its before my time) bitterly divided over Europe, there was the poll tax, and Labour was polling double-digit poll leads.

None of those factors exist today. The schism over Europe is over, there's little in the way of major policy disputes like the poll tax and Labour aren't in the lead let alone 19% or 21% in the lead like the polls for the Mail on Sunday and the Independent on Sunday had around that time.

Lib Dems winning by-elections is far from unprecedented outside of Eastbourne and they are a non-event politically normally.

Brecon and Radnorshire is surely a more modern precedent, the Lib Dems won that and the Tories went on to win an eighty seat majority including winning back B&R.

A BoJo fanboy sounds as though he is making excuses already. But Richmond Park now back with LDs

True, but Richmond Park had for years been a LibDem target seat and was held by them during the Blair years. Part of the SW London orange bloc along with Twickenham etc. North Shropshire is very different and will almost certainly be regained in the event of LibDem success in the by-election (which, BTW, I think very likely.)

The shame about North Shropshire is that the Tory candidate does appear to be very good but his political career will be blighted / stopped in it's tracks by the by-election he should have won.

Not if the Association retains faith in him, and he retakes the seat at the General Election. That, I think, is very likely.

Carnyx

Theuniondivvie said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

Schrödinger’s piss up.

Was Larry present, one wonders?

Burgessian

Carnyx said:

slade said:

As well as OB and S there are 10 local by-elections today. Conservatives are on the defensive in 6 - Adur, Breckland, Highland, Lancaster (x2), and Wealden; in Worthing there is an Ind elected as Con defence. There is a Labour defence in Newport, a Lib Dem defence in North Norfolk, and a Residents defence in Warwick.

Hmm, in the 2017 election the deceased Tory gentleman in Highland was elected third out of four elected for one of those Scottish multimember constituencies. Normally as by elections are FPTP you compare them with the first to be elected in the general election, not who actually is being replaced.

The first to be elected was an individual Independent, then the next was SNP. But the winning Independent has since declared himself as a Tory after a phase of calling himself ‘Real Independent’ (capitals perhaps put ijn by the newspaper).

So anyone's guess whether this effectively FPTP by election can be called a Tory defence and whether it will be successful or not.


https://www.obantimes.co.uk/2020/07/03/lochabers-andrew-baxter-kicked-out-of-highland-council-independents-group/
https://www.highland.gov.uk/councillors/28/andrew_baxter
https://www.highland.gov.uk/byelection

Edit: Ah - @NickyBreakspear has posted a very useful link, thanks.

The late Tory Cllr, who was in his 80s, scraped in on transfers. The ward is one of the most SNP-inclined areas of a constituency which is represented by Ian Blackford at Westminster and Kate Forbes at Holyrood. Really ought to be an easy SNP pick-up unless there is a strong Independent candidate who collects the transfers from the other candidates as they get knocked out, round by round, during the count.

MattW

Eabhal said:

I love the 20 mph limits. As someone who cycles at that speed around town, it means I can sit in the middle of the lane, preventing dangerous close overtakes, with no legit protest from drivers available.

My response to the occasional blaring horn is to slow down until they get the message.

*ducks*

(FYI In theory you should give bikes as much room as you would a car)

Don't understand why you say it is "in theory".

turbotubbs

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

Schrödinger’s piss up.

Was Larry present, one wonders?

Present, but not involved.

rottenborough

turbotubbs said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Apparently George Freeman has said that he doesn't know if there was a No 10 Christmas party or not, but he has spoken to people who attended and so he knows that all rules were followed...

Schrödinger’s piss up.

Was Larry present, one wonders?

Present, but not involved.

Larry has retired I believe.

MattW

noneoftheabove said:

MattW said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

FPT:

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Important message for car-twats:

Sarah Phelps
@PhelpsieSarah
I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.

I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.

I find the 25mph urban limit they have in California (or some of it) works very well.

20mph is unrealistically slow, and from observation I'd say it's fully observed by around 10% of drivers. The rest ignore it unless passing through a suspected camera zone.

I'm usually in the 20-25 kind of range in 20mph zones (which cover most of SE London) and that has kept me ticket free. The only speeding fine I have picked up was for 56mph on a small 50mph bit of the A1. I have no problems complying (more or less) with the lower urban limits, which I think make urban driving a lot less stressful.

On the flip side you get cautious drivers who see a speed limit of 20 and decide to do 15 to be safe, which is really closer to13 as the speedo is always lower than the real speed. Then you are driving along in a long stream of cars with cyclists overtaking, sometimes on both the outside and inside.

It will be interesting to see the accident data as we start to get it from areas that were reduced to 20 for reasons beyond accident hot spots/schools/etc. I suspect there will be more car/cyclist collisions, but hopefully they are less severe.

IMO 20mph is reasonable as a justified limit for residential sideroads, and roads in estates. Main / loop roads should be 30. Making rat runs slower seems to me a good thing.

The risk of severe injury to pedestrians in a collision more than halves between 30mph and 20mph, which I'd say is justification on its own for 20mph as he general limit in streets within residential areas.

I tend to set the cruise control to 30kph and let it roll on in such an environment.

Average traffic speed during the daytime according to TFL around here is 7.1mph anyway. Slower than the horse and cart!

So why is anyone complaining about a 20mph limit ?

Mr Toad surfacing for the third time...

TimS

20mph works very well around here. It's hard to get much above it anyway on most of our suburban streets. 30 on the main roads.