Whenever the LDs have issued data like this they’ve won – politicalbetting.com
Lib Dem internal polling in North Shropshire (Postal Voters Only):CON: 47.7%LDM: 37.8%LAB: 10.5%GRN: 1.9%OTH: 2.1%This is a CON lead of 9.9% in postal votes only.Context: A like for like poll was done for the Chesham & Amersham by-election and showed a CON lead of 23.8%.
Comments
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Confidential. Arf.0
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Looks like it'll be a well deserved beating for the Tories.1
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& the hat trick, 3rd.0
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Second, like the Tories with any luck
Or third!1 -
Looks promising for lib dems and to be honest would be a well timed wake up call to the conservatives3
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I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....0 -
Were it to happen, would the PM shrug it off or take some action?
If so, what?0 -
Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"0 -
All this is true.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
And yet we've been hearing about the Centre Party winning 100+ seats ever since the heyday of the SDP.
If they win it will be a by election shock which will put the wind up this band of bluffers.
No more.1 -
"Cancel your big Christmas party and have a couple of small ones instead"Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
"Avoid 'making merry', don't hug your relatives"
Holy shit these people have gone completely power mad.
This is Sarah Pitt btw.2 -
This attitude has to be resisted not least because it is impossibleEabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"0 -
If the Lib Dems do pull it off this will surely give them a lot of momentum going forward.0
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For the record I'd be surprised if Tories hold North Shropshire.OldKingCole said:Were it to happen, would the PM shrug it off or take some action?
If so, what?
Boris will shrug it off, like he did Chesham & Amersham and, before that, Brecon & Radnor which the Tories easily regained in the subsequent General Election.
Xmas will likely kill off any political momentum from the result.0 -
As long as they don't end up gaining a lot of MomentumCorrectHorseBattery said:If the Lib Dems do pull it off this will surely give them a lot of momentum going forward.
(although that would be good for Labour, I guess)1 -
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"2 -
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.1 -
Indeed. I wrote the other day that the imposition of ‘minor’ NPIs would have two very negative consequences: 1) it would spook and scare the general public and 2) it would encourage the zerocovidians and the lockdown hawks yet again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This attitude has to be resisted not least because it is impossibleEabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
Sadly, I was right on both counts.4 -
Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.8 -
Also ineffective as it's really pissed me off, unlikely to take any precautions at all now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This attitude has to be resisted not least because it is impossibleEabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
I feel really bad for those with anxiety etc who, having heard that, must be near going into full isolation.2 -
Presenters response was to comment that it showed how misguided many callers were.eek said:
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"0 -
Just over 800 non-COVID excess deaths in the latest weekly deaths stats...
https://tinyurl.com/2p8c64c2
Week ending, 5-year average, COVID deaths, non-COVID deaths, excess non-COVID deaths
24-Sep-21: 9,264 | 888 | 9,796 | 532
01-Oct-21: 9,377 | 783 | 9,727 | 350
08-Oct-21: 9,555 | 666 | 10,141 | 586
15-Oct-21: 9,811 | 713 | 10,464 | 653
22-Oct-21: 9,865 | 792 | 10,516 | 651
29-Oct-21: 9,759 | 859 | 10,128 | 369
05-Nov-21: 9,891 | 995 | 10,555 | 664
12-Nov-21: 10,331 | 1,020 | 11,030 | 699
19-Nov-21: 10,350 | 952 | 11,151 | 8010 -
Sorry to hear of your troubles. Things do indeed some to be dire across the NHS.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
What happened to them buying in the private sector stuff to try and reduce waiting lists?1 -
The Groupthink is strong that "something must be done, this is something, so this must be done".Eabhal said:
Presenters response was to comment that it showed how misguided many callers were.eek said:
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
To even suggest that death is a part of the circle of life and not to be prevented at all costs is now viewed as a monstrous suggestion by some people.1 -
There was a piece in one of the sundays about how Whitty is very worried that if they do have to lock us all down and so on again this xmas, the public will just raise two fingers and ignore them.Eabhal said:
"Cancel your big Christmas party and have a couple of small ones instead"Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
"Avoid 'making merry', don't hug your relatives"
Holy shit these people have gone completely power mad.
This is Sarah Pitt btw.
1 -
Most obviously, a LibDem win (which still looks a long shot to me) would give them an extra MP, which in a very small parliamentary group is a not insignificant benefit in itself. It also helps re-establish the narrative that they are the principal challengers to the Tories in the rural south - something that was taken for granted prior to the coalition.Philip_Thompson said:
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.
I doubt it would bring about a lasting change in national politics - although every so often a dramatic by-election has done so, leading to the downfall of leaders (we can only hope) and suchlike - but it would come at a bad time for the PM whose capability and judgement is being questioned by many in his own party, with consideration of his suitability normally leading to a "but" followed by "he's a winner". A series of bad by-elections followed by bad local elections in 2022 would all undermine the persisting belief that he is still capable of electoral magic.0 -
I have no expectation of a LD 100 seat haul in 2024. There is always swingback. The point though is that the Tories will be fighting a two-front war. Trying to keep enough red-wallers happy to fight off Labour, and trying to keep enough red-corduroys happy to fight off the LDs.Philip_Thompson said:
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.
Two front wars tend to be problematic for the very best generals. And unless it changes the Tories are led by Peppa Pig.0 -
So he should be. 👍rottenborough said:
There was a piece in one of the sundays about how Whitty is very worried that if they do have to lock us all down and so on again this xmas, the public will just raise two fingers and ignore them.Eabhal said:
"Cancel your big Christmas party and have a couple of small ones instead"Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
"Avoid 'making merry', don't hug your relatives"
Holy shit these people have gone completely power mad.
This is Sarah Pitt btw.
If they do, I'll be very proud of the public.1 -
It's possible that the Lib Dems could win but I don't think it would actually signify that much in the medium/long term. I think this is more comparable to the Ribble Valley (1991), recent Brecon and Radnorshire and to a lesser extent the Witney by election which were all largely to do with local issues and LD pavement politics unlike Chesham and Amersham which was related to a trend towards the lib dems in the Southeast of England.
Even under Menzies Campbell, the Lib Dems almost won Bromley and Chislehurst in 2006.0 -
Don't know but we already have a 2 tier dental service and we are heading the same way with medicine. It's troubling.rottenborough said:
Sorry to hear of your troubles. Things do indeed some to be dire across the NHS.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
What happened to them buying in the private sector stuff to try and reduce waiting lists?1 -
Not good, hope that you get your scan quickly and it is ok.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
The point your GP is making is one made fairly broadly by people inside the NHS and is - frankly - largely pooh poohed by supporters of the government. Thanks to front line underfunding and Covid the NHS is on its knees.1 -
Though with the research cited on the previous thread it's possible you could attribute (some/many) of these deaths as being due to Covid, but delayed.tlg86 said:Just over 800 non-COVID excess deaths in the latest weekly deaths stats...
https://tinyurl.com/2p8c64c2
Week ending, 5-year average, COVID deaths, non-COVID deaths, excess non-COVID deaths
24-Sep-21: 9,264 | 888 | 9,796 | 532
01-Oct-21: 9,377 | 783 | 9,727 | 350
08-Oct-21: 9,555 | 666 | 10,141 | 586
15-Oct-21: 9,811 | 713 | 10,464 | 653
22-Oct-21: 9,865 | 792 | 10,516 | 651
29-Oct-21: 9,759 | 859 | 10,128 | 369
05-Nov-21: 9,891 | 995 | 10,555 | 664
12-Nov-21: 10,331 | 1,020 | 11,030 | 699
19-Nov-21: 10,350 | 952 | 11,151 | 8011 -
We have corrupted our relationship with death to a massive extent.Philip_Thompson said:
The Groupthink is strong that "something must be done, this is something, so this must be done".Eabhal said:
Presenters response was to comment that it showed how misguided many callers were.eek said:
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
To even suggest that death is a part of the circle of life and not to be prevented at all costs is now viewed as a monstrous suggestion by some people.
People are kept alive against their will when they are suffering and ill. Way beyond the point where the quality of life compensates for the illness.
Yes, life is precious, but preserving to the point of refusal to allow death with dignity is absolutely perverse.5 -
People with anxiety have better coping strategies than people without anxiety. Going into isolation is run of the mill stuff.Eabhal said:
Also ineffective as it's really pissed me off, unlikely to take any precautions at all now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This attitude has to be resisted not least because it is impossibleEabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
I feel really bad for those with anxiety etc who, having heard that, must be near going into full isolation.1 -
Which virologist btw?Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"0 -
Indeed. I had a root canal filling gone wrong in August and, for an urgent referral from the dentist, my appointment at the hospital only came up last week, with another this week. My GP said an ordinary referral to ENT could have been anything up to a year to first consultation. Having suffered toothache and bad sleep for nearly four months it looks like the upshot is going to be having the filling again, something I could have done months ago.RochdalePioneers said:
Not good, hope that you get your scan quickly and it is ok.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
The point your GP is making is one made fairly broadly by people inside the NHS and is - frankly - largely pooh poohed by supporters of the government. Thanks to front line underfunding and Covid the NHS is on its knees.1 -
The NHS has used rationing by queue since the beginning. The queues are getting longer....rottenborough said:
Sorry to hear of your troubles. Things do indeed some to be dire across the NHS.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
What happened to them buying in the private sector stuff to try and reduce waiting lists?0 -
Point of order.IanB2 said:
Most obviously, a LibDem win (which still looks a long shot to me) would give them an extra MP, which in a very small parliamentary group is a not insignificant benefit in itself. It also helps re-establish the narrative that they are the principal challengers to the Tories in the rural south - something that was taken for granted prior to the coalition.Philip_Thompson said:
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.
I doubt it would bring about a lasting change in national politics - although every so often a dramatic by-election has done so, leading to the downfall of leaders (we can only hope) and suchlike - but it would come at a bad time for the PM whose capability and judgement is being questioned by many in his own party, with consideration of his suitability normally leading to a "but" followed by "he's a winner". A series of bad by-elections followed by bad local elections in 2022 would all undermine the persisting belief that he is still capable of electoral magic.
NS is far from the rural South.
Which is a little more than me being pedantic. It is not LD heartlands.0 -
You should not however discount the possibility that "there may be something there that wasn't there before"*Philip_Thompson said:
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.
*beyond the extra LD MP0 -
Many of us thought the Lib Dems would do reasonably well in 2015, because they'd put in at least one good by-election performance. They didn't.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
By-elections are different. The Lib Dems are extraordinarily good at concentrating resources to contest by-elections. They cannot do the same across dozens of seats in a general election.
However, a defeat for the Tories in North Shropshire would still be huge. It would indicate that Brexit was losing its dominance of British politics, and that the Tories position is more vulnerable than previously thought.1 -
There is apparently roughly a 2% chance of something seriously nasty but as all PBers know 50/1 chances never come off!RochdalePioneers said:
Not good, hope that you get your scan quickly and it is ok.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
The point your GP is making is one made fairly broadly by people inside the NHS and is - frankly - largely pooh poohed by supporters of the government. Thanks to front line underfunding and Covid the NHS is on its knees.4 -
Hence why I still feel it's a longshot.dixiedean said:
Point of order.IanB2 said:
Most obviously, a LibDem win (which still looks a long shot to me) would give them an extra MP, which in a very small parliamentary group is a not insignificant benefit in itself. It also helps re-establish the narrative that they are the principal challengers to the Tories in the rural south - something that was taken for granted prior to the coalition.Philip_Thompson said:
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.
I doubt it would bring about a lasting change in national politics - although every so often a dramatic by-election has done so, leading to the downfall of leaders (we can only hope) and suchlike - but it would come at a bad time for the PM whose capability and judgement is being questioned by many in his own party, with consideration of his suitability normally leading to a "but" followed by "he's a winner". A series of bad by-elections followed by bad local elections in 2022 would all undermine the persisting belief that he is still capable of electoral magic.
NS is far from the rural South.
Which is a little more than me being pedantic. It is not LD heartlands.
In electoral terms the rural south is everything that isn't in the north or urban!0 -
Personally, I'm optimistic that is an unnecessary panic and the variant will not be a problem. But if it is, I can still see a large number of people just ploughing on and doing the full xmas.Philip_Thompson said:
So he should be. 👍rottenborough said:
There was a piece in one of the sundays about how Whitty is very worried that if they do have to lock us all down and so on again this xmas, the public will just raise two fingers and ignore them.Eabhal said:
"Cancel your big Christmas party and have a couple of small ones instead"Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
"Avoid 'making merry', don't hug your relatives"
Holy shit these people have gone completely power mad.
This is Sarah Pitt btw.
If they do, I'll be very proud of the public.0 -
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.1 -
Anything is possible, but it would take more than by-elections to be evidence of that.Selebian said:
You should not however discount the possibility that "there may be something there that wasn't there before"*Philip_Thompson said:
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.
*beyond the extra LD MP0 -
All the best. Good that you're getting the scan - normally nothing, but best to be sure.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.2 -
Hmmm.dixiedean said:
Point of order.IanB2 said:
Most obviously, a LibDem win (which still looks a long shot to me) would give them an extra MP, which in a very small parliamentary group is a not insignificant benefit in itself. It also helps re-establish the narrative that they are the principal challengers to the Tories in the rural south - something that was taken for granted prior to the coalition.Philip_Thompson said:
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.
I doubt it would bring about a lasting change in national politics - although every so often a dramatic by-election has done so, leading to the downfall of leaders (we can only hope) and suchlike - but it would come at a bad time for the PM whose capability and judgement is being questioned by many in his own party, with consideration of his suitability normally leading to a "but" followed by "he's a winner". A series of bad by-elections followed by bad local elections in 2022 would all undermine the persisting belief that he is still capable of electoral magic.
NS is far from the rural South.
Which is a little more than me being pedantic. It is not LD heartlands.
1 - Are the Tories freewheeling on this one?
2 - There have been LD wins up that way before in byelections in unexpected places.
3 - But 3 - I would treat all LD publications, especially polls, as propaganda.1 -
It is. I question what the solution is though - it can't just be more money? Maybe it is, and maybe thats the case that needs to be made.RochdalePioneers said:
Not good, hope that you get your scan quickly and it is ok.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
The point your GP is making is one made fairly broadly by people inside the NHS and is - frankly - largely pooh poohed by supporters of the government. Thanks to front line underfunding and Covid the NHS is on its knees.0 -
NHS, of course, is devolved to the Scottish Govt in your part of the world. Perhaps if they spent less on ramping up salaries, providing "free" baby-boxes, free bikes, free tuition fees, and various other perks for the middle-classes, there'd be a bit more for front-line health provision.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But, as we know, Nicola is politically bullet-proof, and nothing much will change however bad services get.
Rant over!2 -
There are a set of people who would see a £100 cost of a GP appointment and book more simply to spend the money.turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.
I do believe we should charge for GP appointments to ensure people actually turn up..0 -
Yes, of course. But how often does one get to quote beauty and the beast? Perhaps the voters look upon Davey and think "he’s no Prince Charming but there’s something in him that I simply didn’t see"?Philip_Thompson said:
Anything is possible, but it would take more than by-elections to be evidence of that.Selebian said:
You should not however discount the possibility that "there may be something there that wasn't there before"*Philip_Thompson said:
Keep daydreaming.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
The Lib Dems should be favourites to win a by-election in midterms. Governments don't win by-elections in general.
If the Lib Dems do win, it doesn't mean anything other than they campaign hard in a by-election and voters would rather kick the government in midterm than reward them. In the words of Angela Lansbury its a tale as old as time.
*beyond the extra LD MP
Probably not, of course...1 -
The last week has crystallised my thinking a bit on uk politics. I don’t really care who is leading the Tory party at the next election, I will vote for them (first time since 2015) no matter what, because it’s clear Starmer’s Labour has lined itself up as the Lockdown Party. Meanwhile the government hasn’t done everything right (far from it) but I do believe there is reluctance in the Tory party to impose restrictions.
This won’t be the last Greek letter we all hear about and there are plenty of other alphabets to use thereafter. And of course, plenty of pale horses sleeping in the zoonotic virus stable. Those that think covid won’t be key issue at the next election are most likely letting their optimism get in the way.0 -
You don't think a thousand extra deaths a week, many of them avoidable, is enough?Philip_Thompson said:
The Groupthink is strong that "something must be done, this is something, so this must be done".Eabhal said:
Presenters response was to comment that it showed how misguided many callers were.eek said:
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
To even suggest that death is a part of the circle of life and not to be prevented at all costs is now viewed as a monstrous suggestion by some people.1 -
Or it may just be rejection of Paterson's and Boris's unacceptable behaviour by decent votersLostPassword said:
Many of us thought the Lib Dems would do reasonably well in 2015, because they'd put in at least one good by-election performance. They didn't.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
By-elections are different. The Lib Dems are extraordinarily good at concentrating resources to contest by-elections. They cannot do the same across dozens of seats in a general election.
However, a defeat for the Tories in North Shropshire would still be huge. It would indicate that Brexit was losing its dominance of British politics, and that the Tories position is more vulnerable than previously thought.0 -
There has been some success, I believe (have seen some studies, but a while ago) in reducing non-attendance at outpatient appointments by making the patients aware of how much the appointment costs and so how much is wasted if they do not go.turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.0 -
OT and FPT, on the terrifying amendments Patel is thrusting into the already worrying Policing Bill :
I really hope there's going to be some pushback from Tory MP's as well as the Liberal Democrats and Starmer on this. There's a small group of Tory MP's who actually mean what they say about libertarianism, and despite his loopy views on Brexit, I class David Davis as one of those.Cicero said:
The UK media is alternately useless or dangerous. The quality of analysis can be seen by who have been the best paid OpEd writers: such Augustan figures as Gove and Johnson, and various other "luminaries" as Heffer or Hitchens. Meanwhile both print and broadcast media are sloppy with facts and critical details. The feral frenzy on the doings of the latest ingenue is matched by the indifference, ignorance or contempt demonstrated to most serious subjects.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes indeed a much warmer morning than recently. OT, Monbiot is bracingly and completely correct this morning that the extra amendments bolted on to the policing bill, and completely missed by the media, as well as parts of the original bill itself, are a threat to all of us and our basic democratic rights.
Most concerning of all, among many concerns, is the open door to making any noisy, rather than violent, protest - and even helping to publicise such a protest online, by retweeting it, for instance - an arrestable offence.
Very concerning stuff, and as so often in the last two decades, the British media, claiming to be fearless, is asleep at the wheel .
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/01/imprisoned-51-weeks-protesting-britain-police-state
A few aspects of the bill and its amendments are some of the most dangerous threats to our freedoms in almost a century, particularly the undefined criminalisation of 'disruptive' protest. A retweet of a noisy protest could even be arrestable under the "facilitating disruptive protest" section.
Extremely dangerous.6 -
Its more money *to the front line*. Tories always popup and parrot how much cash is going into the NHS, but spent on what? The Lansley reforms make healthcare ludicrously expensive. Instead of GPs being GPs we're back to them being business managers purchasing services from competing internal bodies.turbotubbs said:
It is. I question what the solution is though - it can't just be more money? Maybe it is, and maybe thats the case that needs to be made.RochdalePioneers said:
Not good, hope that you get your scan quickly and it is ok.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
The point your GP is making is one made fairly broadly by people inside the NHS and is - frankly - largely pooh poohed by supporters of the government. Thanks to front line underfunding and Covid the NHS is on its knees.
Sweep away all that bullshit and free up the cash spent on procurement and accountants and lawyers and contract managers. You'd think the Tories would have done this already - "Bring Back Matron" sounds like just their kind of policy.
Then you remember why they don't - too many donor mouths to feed. I did enjoy the Twitter feed this morning exposing that charlatan Hancock, whining to the Commons about "Labour Lies" saying claims his former pub landlord won a PPE contract was an egregious fabrication. Except the Good Law project has gone through the documents, found the document that had been redacted and there it is - a contract to the pub landlord as sub-contractor.
Why do we have multi-year waits for basic healthcare? Because Tory snouts in the trough.0 -
That’s one of the most egregious sweeping generalisations I have read for a long time.dixiedean said:
People with anxiety have better coping strategies than people without anxiety. Going into isolation is run of the mill stuff.Eabhal said:
Also ineffective as it's really pissed me off, unlikely to take any precautions at all now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This attitude has to be resisted not least because it is impossibleEabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
I feel really bad for those with anxiety etc who, having heard that, must be near going into full isolation.0 -
Yep rooting for those lib dems. And let's have reciprocation for lab in our targets.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
Progressives of england unite! You have nothing to lose but your horrid tory governments.1 -
Her Teflon shielding is starting to wear a little thin. Interesting article in the Courier today be Jim Spence: "Is independence a busted flush?" The response to their virtual conference has been pretty negative well beyond the usual suspects (like me). Subscription only unfortunately.Burgessian said:
NHS, of course, is devolved to the Scottish Govt in your part of the world. Perhaps if they spent less on ramping up salaries, providing "free" baby-boxes, free bikes, free tuition fees, and various other perks for the middle-classes, there'd be a bit more for front-line health provision.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But, as we know, Nicola is politically bullet-proof, and nothing much will change however bad services get.
Rant over!0 -
I don't think its too many.Richard_Nabavi said:
You don't think a thousand extra deaths a week, many of them avoidable, is enough?Philip_Thompson said:
The Groupthink is strong that "something must be done, this is something, so this must be done".Eabhal said:
Presenters response was to comment that it showed how misguided many callers were.eek said:
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
To even suggest that death is a part of the circle of life and not to be prevented at all costs is now viewed as a monstrous suggestion by some people.
Most deaths are either the unvaccinated who can own their own choices, or people who are very vulnerable and could die from the common cold or flu or anything else.
NPIs made sense pre-PIs, not anymore. If a thousand 'extra' deaths is the 'new normal' then that's the new normal and that's what we have to live with, though I'm sceptical that excess deaths actually are a thousand a week.2 -
'Underfunding' is the suggestion about NHS, as here, and more or less everything else the tax payer pays for.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But curiously we are at a moment of record highs in: tax levels, tax take, tax proportions of GDP, public spending, borrowing and debt.
Every issue, taken one at a time, required increased tax and spend - try listening for a few days to Today on R4 and count up the times it is the answer.
So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.
3 -
If only there was a democratic system whereby moderately intelligent and talented people could make their case persuasively and get people to vote for it.Burgessian said:
NHS, of course, is devolved to the Scottish Govt in your part of the world. Perhaps if they spent less on ramping up salaries, providing "free" baby-boxes, free bikes, free tuition fees, and various other perks for the middle-classes, there'd be a bit more for front-line health provision.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But, as we know, Nicola is politically bullet-proof, and nothing much will change however bad services get.
Rant over!
0 -
You cannot.Farooq said:
How can you have a politically neutral debate on the NHS? Resource allocation and service funding is core politics.turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.
But you might just have a more honest and informed one (I confess to being an incorrigible optimist)...
Interesting article here on how political debate might be made less divisive:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/30/why-american-politics-is-so-stuck-and-what-new-research-shows-about-how-to-fix-it-523517
And it doesn't even require both sides to agree, just for one or other to see the benefit to themselves of this approach.3 -
On topic, a good showing by the LDs won't be transformational but I agree with other posters that:
- It keeps the party relevant nationally
- It helps create a narrative about the LDs being the natural alternative in the rural South. Forget the fact that NS is really the West Midlands, nobody knows where it is and if they've heard of Shropshire they're probably thinking a Shropshire lad or nice restaurants in Ludlow
- It shows the Tories can be beaten in a majority Brexit constituency
On omicron - unless I see something suggesting major increased virulence or massive immune escape - and the stats from SA so far don't seem to suggest this - I have zero intention of cancelling any Christmas socialising. We just all need to get boosted and trust in the vaccines.0 -
Judging by the response of some natural Tory voters on here, there might just be some pushback. It is a very badly formulated, and as you say, potentially dangerous piece of legislation.WhisperingOracle said:OT and FPT, on the terrifying amendments Patel is thrusting into the already worrying Policing Bill :
I really hope there's going to be some pushback from Tory MP's as well as the Liberal Democrats and Starmer on this. There's a small group of Tory MP's who actually mean what they say about libertarianism, and despite his loopy views on Brexit, I class David Davis as one of those.Cicero said:
The UK media is alternately useless or dangerous. The quality of analysis can be seen by who have been the best paid OpEd writers: such Augustan figures as Gove and Johnson, and various other "luminaries" as Heffer or Hitchens. Meanwhile both print and broadcast media are sloppy with facts and critical details. The feral frenzy on the doings of the latest ingenue is matched by the indifference, ignorance or contempt demonstrated to most serious subjects.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes indeed a much warmer morning than recently. OT, Monbiot is bracingly and completely correct this morning that the extra amendments bolted on to the policing bill, and completely missed by the media, as well as parts of the original bill itself, are a threat to all of us and our basic democratic rights.
Most concerning of all, among many concerns, is the open door to making any noisy, rather than violent, protest - and even helping to publicise such a protest online, by retweeting it, for instance - an arrestable offence.
Very concerning stuff, and as so often in the last two decades, the British media, claiming to be fearless, is asleep at the wheel .
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/01/imprisoned-51-weeks-protesting-britain-police-state
A few aspects of the bill and its amendments are some of the most dangerous threats to our freedoms in almost a century, particularly the undefined criminalisation of 'disruptive' protest. A retweet of a noisy protest could even be arrestable under the "facilitating disruptive protest" section.
Extremely dangerous.4 -
Which happens to be true.Anabobazina said:
That’s one of the most egregious sweeping generalisations I have read for a long time.dixiedean said:
People with anxiety have better coping strategies than people without anxiety. Going into isolation is run of the mill stuff.Eabhal said:
Also ineffective as it's really pissed me off, unlikely to take any precautions at all now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This attitude has to be resisted not least because it is impossibleEabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
I feel really bad for those with anxiety etc who, having heard that, must be near going into full isolation.
The group whose mental health suffers most severely from restrictions are previously non mental health suffering extroverts.
Although research is at a preliminary stage it all points that way and is suspected to be a major cause of the fall in suicides.1 -
Mr. L, hope it turns out ok.3
-
Try getting one of the army of shroud wavers, policy wonks, vested interests and spokespeople to say with some precision how much in actual pounds of taxpayers money, or as a % of GDP, should be spent annually on the NHS to be enough for the foreseeable future.turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.
They won't, and it vitiates the entire discussion.
0 -
s
Not literally, I take your point.Farooq said:
Power mad? As in, exercising the power of speech to advise people?Eabhal said:
"Cancel your big Christmas party and have a couple of small ones instead"Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
"Avoid 'making merry', don't hug your relatives"
Holy shit these people have gone completely power mad.
This is Sarah Pitt btw.
If Sarah Pitt is forcing you to do something against your will, I'm pretty concerned. But is she?
But it's the confidence to say something like that and expect listeners not to have an immediate and violent reaction to it that concerns me.
They have come to expect adherence to a zero-covid strategy.0 -
I also think that there are 2 tiers of the NHS as well. Front line crisis services generally run flat out with phenomenal efforts by those involved. But there are also large sections where productivity seems astonishingly low and where money seeps away. Poor management allows this to be tolerated for far too long. We simply cannot afford this anymore.algarkirk said:
'Underfunding' is the suggestion about NHS, as here, and more or less everything else the tax payer pays for.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But curiously we are at a moment of record highs in: tax levels, tax take, tax proportions of GDP, public spending, borrowing and debt.
Every issue, taken one at a time, required increased tax and spend - try listening for a few days to Today on R4 and count up the times it is the answer.
So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.1 -
Mr. L, that's what happens when you have a sacred cow that's beyond criticism and any proposed changes provokes shrieks of outrage. Anything other than throwing more money at the NHS makes the political class and media wet themselves.1
-
As Hunt pointed out, the substantial increase in funding will have poor results if it is not accompanied by a significant increase in newly trained doctors and nurses.DavidL said:
I also think that there are 2 tiers of the NHS as well. Front line crisis services generally run flat out with phenomenal efforts by those involved. But there are also large sections where productivity seems astonishingly low and where money seeps away. Poor management allows this to be tolerated for far too long. We simply cannot afford this anymore.algarkirk said:
'Underfunding' is the suggestion about NHS, as here, and more or less everything else the tax payer pays for.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But curiously we are at a moment of record highs in: tax levels, tax take, tax proportions of GDP, public spending, borrowing and debt.
Every issue, taken one at a time, required increased tax and spend - try listening for a few days to Today on R4 and count up the times it is the answer.
So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.0 -
How do you have a politically neutral debate about the expenditure of 8-9% of GDP? Our government is increasingly becoming a health and social care service with some subsidiary departments attached. Some of these, such defence, seem marked for closure in the near future to set aside more resources.turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.0 -
The entire structure is an absurd waste of money. Abolish the marketisation and save a fortune which can be reinvested back into front line health.DavidL said:
I also think that there are 2 tiers of the NHS as well. Front line crisis services generally run flat out with phenomenal efforts by those involved. But there are also large sections where productivity seems astonishingly low and where money seeps away. Poor management allows this to be tolerated for far too long. We simply cannot afford this anymore.algarkirk said:
'Underfunding' is the suggestion about NHS, as here, and more or less everything else the tax payer pays for.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But curiously we are at a moment of record highs in: tax levels, tax take, tax proportions of GDP, public spending, borrowing and debt.
Every issue, taken one at a time, required increased tax and spend - try listening for a few days to Today on R4 and count up the times it is the answer.
So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.
In the meantime why can't the government pay private providers to clear the backlog? If Labour can hire the private sector why can't the Tories...?0 -
Spence is of the Albanian persuasion isn’t he? I suspect he would prefer Indy to be a busted flush rather than the woke hell of cops dancing at Pride and non binary pronouns that inhabits his fevered imaginings.DavidL said:
Her Teflon shielding is starting to wear a little thin. Interesting article in the Courier today be Jim Spence: "Is independence a busted flush?" The response to their virtual conference has been pretty negative well beyond the usual suspects (like me). Subscription only unfortunately.Burgessian said:
NHS, of course, is devolved to the Scottish Govt in your part of the world. Perhaps if they spent less on ramping up salaries, providing "free" baby-boxes, free bikes, free tuition fees, and various other perks for the middle-classes, there'd be a bit more for front-line health provision.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But, as we know, Nicola is politically bullet-proof, and nothing much will change however bad services get.
Rant over!1 -
That would destroy the principle of the NHS. A more tolerable policy would be to charge people who fail to turn up to any NHS appointment, not just GPs, without a very good reason.eek said:
There are a set of people who would see a £100 cost of a GP appointment and book more simply to spend the money.turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.
I do believe we should charge for GP appointments to ensure people actually turn up..0 -
The front line is top notch, can't fault them - particularly the hospital staff, but too many Deputy Director of Organisational Development dining out on £1,500 steak...DavidL said:
I also think that there are 2 tiers of the NHS as well. Front line crisis services generally run flat out with phenomenal efforts by those involved. But there are also large sections where productivity seems astonishingly low and where money seeps away. Poor management allows this to be tolerated for far too long. We simply cannot afford this anymore.algarkirk said:
'Underfunding' is the suggestion about NHS, as here, and more or less everything else the tax payer pays for.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But curiously we are at a moment of record highs in: tax levels, tax take, tax proportions of GDP, public spending, borrowing and debt.
Every issue, taken one at a time, required increased tax and spend - try listening for a few days to Today on R4 and count up the times it is the answer.
So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.0 -
But that would require politicians to admit that they are really arguing about whether we should spend 35% or 40%* of GDP on public spending.Farooq said:
Really interesting read, thanks.Nigelb said:
You cannot.Farooq said:
How can you have a politically neutral debate on the NHS? Resource allocation and service funding is core politics.turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.
But you might just have a more honest and informed one (I confess to being an incorrigible optimist)...
Interesting article here on how political debate might be made less divisive:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/30/why-american-politics-is-so-stuck-and-what-new-research-shows-about-how-to-fix-it-523517
And it doesn't even require both sides to agree, just for one or other to see the benefit to themselves of this approach.
Rather than a Moral Crusade Against The Heretic Unbelievers opposite.
*Randomly selected numbers.0 -
Top tip: the best way to avoid headaches is not to argue with certain posters on here.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.8 -
There is no simple way of managing 1.3m employees and over £150bn of expenditure. Trying to claim that there are simple or simplistic solutions like that dodges the much more difficult choices we face.RochdalePioneers said:
The entire structure is an absurd waste of money. Abolish the marketisation and save a fortune which can be reinvested back into front line health.DavidL said:
I also think that there are 2 tiers of the NHS as well. Front line crisis services generally run flat out with phenomenal efforts by those involved. But there are also large sections where productivity seems astonishingly low and where money seeps away. Poor management allows this to be tolerated for far too long. We simply cannot afford this anymore.algarkirk said:
'Underfunding' is the suggestion about NHS, as here, and more or less everything else the tax payer pays for.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But curiously we are at a moment of record highs in: tax levels, tax take, tax proportions of GDP, public spending, borrowing and debt.
Every issue, taken one at a time, required increased tax and spend - try listening for a few days to Today on R4 and count up the times it is the answer.
So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.
In the meantime why can't the government pay private providers to clear the backlog? If Labour can hire the private sector why can't the Tories...?0 -
Yes - as anyone who has dealt with large organisations of any kind* will tell you, their capacity to absorb money and doing nothing more for it is extraordinary.Nigelb said:
As Hunt pointed out, the substantial increase in funding will have poor results if it is not accompanied by a significant increase in newly trained doctors and nurses.DavidL said:
I also think that there are 2 tiers of the NHS as well. Front line crisis services generally run flat out with phenomenal efforts by those involved. But there are also large sections where productivity seems astonishingly low and where money seeps away. Poor management allows this to be tolerated for far too long. We simply cannot afford this anymore.algarkirk said:
'Underfunding' is the suggestion about NHS, as here, and more or less everything else the tax payer pays for.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But curiously we are at a moment of record highs in: tax levels, tax take, tax proportions of GDP, public spending, borrowing and debt.
Every issue, taken one at a time, required increased tax and spend - try listening for a few days to Today on R4 and count up the times it is the answer.
So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.
Ring fenced spending, tied to specific goals is required.
*Public, private, in between - they all behave like this.1 -
Albanian?Theuniondivvie said:
Spence is of the Albanian persuasion isn’t he? I suspect he would prefer Indy to be a busted flush rather than the woke hell of cops dancing at Pride and non binary pronouns that inhabits his fevered imaginings.DavidL said:
Her Teflon shielding is starting to wear a little thin. Interesting article in the Courier today be Jim Spence: "Is independence a busted flush?" The response to their virtual conference has been pretty negative well beyond the usual suspects (like me). Subscription only unfortunately.Burgessian said:
NHS, of course, is devolved to the Scottish Govt in your part of the world. Perhaps if they spent less on ramping up salaries, providing "free" baby-boxes, free bikes, free tuition fees, and various other perks for the middle-classes, there'd be a bit more for front-line health provision.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But, as we know, Nicola is politically bullet-proof, and nothing much will change however bad services get.
Rant over!0 -
The mentality revealed by the Paterson affair is evidently a distinctive part of Conservative Party culture, judging from recent revelations. Much less prevalent in other parties (though, I stress sadly, not absent). So it's not 'just' rejection of that pair's recent behaviour.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or it may just be rejection of Paterson's and Boris's unacceptable behaviour by decent votersLostPassword said:
Many of us thought the Lib Dems would do reasonably well in 2015, because they'd put in at least one good by-election performance. They didn't.RochdalePioneers said:I spotted this on my twitter feed this morning. I follow quite a lot of LD campaigners and activists and they have been feeling increasingly confident of at least a good showing.
Remember that for the LDs there is no downside. If they run the Tories close they come from a distant 3rd, show people that the true challenger to the Tories are the LibDems in significant parts of the couuntry and get motivated by the swing. Remember the LDs are in challenging range 2nd in about 100 seats, and even a loss in NS would show that many of those Tory seats are winnable.
And then, if they win....
By-elections are different. The Lib Dems are extraordinarily good at concentrating resources to contest by-elections. They cannot do the same across dozens of seats in a general election.
However, a defeat for the Tories in North Shropshire would still be huge. It would indicate that Brexit was losing its dominance of British politics, and that the Tories position is more vulnerable than previously thought.0 -
There is also the issue that the private sector medical staff and the public sector medical staff are, to a considerable extent, the same people.DavidL said:
There is no simple way of managing 1.3m employees and over £150bn of expenditure. Trying to claim that there are simple or simplistic solutions like that dodges the much more difficult choices we face.RochdalePioneers said:
The entire structure is an absurd waste of money. Abolish the marketisation and save a fortune which can be reinvested back into front line health.DavidL said:
I also think that there are 2 tiers of the NHS as well. Front line crisis services generally run flat out with phenomenal efforts by those involved. But there are also large sections where productivity seems astonishingly low and where money seeps away. Poor management allows this to be tolerated for far too long. We simply cannot afford this anymore.algarkirk said:
'Underfunding' is the suggestion about NHS, as here, and more or less everything else the tax payer pays for.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But curiously we are at a moment of record highs in: tax levels, tax take, tax proportions of GDP, public spending, borrowing and debt.
Every issue, taken one at a time, required increased tax and spend - try listening for a few days to Today on R4 and count up the times it is the answer.
So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.
In the meantime why can't the government pay private providers to clear the backlog? If Labour can hire the private sector why can't the Tories...?2 -
They're healthy young people dying a horrible and preventable death and there's a simple solution to stop it happening that doesn't restrict the rights of anyone living here.Farooq said:
You seemed concerned about people drowning in the channel in far smaller numbers.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think its too many.Richard_Nabavi said:
You don't think a thousand extra deaths a week, many of them avoidable, is enough?Philip_Thompson said:
The Groupthink is strong that "something must be done, this is something, so this must be done".Eabhal said:
Presenters response was to comment that it showed how misguided many callers were.eek said:
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
To even suggest that death is a part of the circle of life and not to be prevented at all costs is now viewed as a monstrous suggestion by some people.
Most deaths are either the unvaccinated who can own their own choices, or people who are very vulnerable and could die from the common cold or flu or anything else.
NPIs made sense pre-PIs, not anymore. If a thousand 'extra' deaths is the 'new normal' then that's the new normal and that's what we have to live with, though I'm sceptical that excess deaths actually are a thousand a week.0 -
The new data on the Merck drug looks pretty depressing: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/womp-womp-efficacy-of-mercks-thor-inspired-covid-pill-crumbles-vexing-experts/
Let's hope that the Pfizer pill does not suffer similarly.0 -
I think perhaps TUD needs a different term for the Salmond fan clubDavidL said:
Albanian?Theuniondivvie said:
Spence is of the Albanian persuasion isn’t he? I suspect he would prefer Indy to be a busted flush rather than the woke hell of cops dancing at Pride and non binary pronouns that inhabits his fevered imaginings.DavidL said:
Her Teflon shielding is starting to wear a little thin. Interesting article in the Courier today be Jim Spence: "Is independence a busted flush?" The response to their virtual conference has been pretty negative well beyond the usual suspects (like me). Subscription only unfortunately.Burgessian said:
NHS, of course, is devolved to the Scottish Govt in your part of the world. Perhaps if they spent less on ramping up salaries, providing "free" baby-boxes, free bikes, free tuition fees, and various other perks for the middle-classes, there'd be a bit more for front-line health provision.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
But, as we know, Nicola is politically bullet-proof, and nothing much will change however bad services get.
Rant over!
Alban?
Salmondic?
Nutty?
Or, in homage to our own Malc, Malcomian?1 -
I think rent-seeking is the missing explanation. It's rent-seeking that makes living costs so high in this country, that makes so much investment ruinously expensive, that extracts so much money from the NHS, Education and other budgets.algarkirk said:So something is missing in this discussion. And it feels insufficiently wide in its scope. It isn't possible or practicable that more tax take/borrowing is the universal panacea.
We're a country of people labouring hard so that a small minority can achieve guaranteed returns of >5% on their investment portfolios.4 -
I have to say that if the cost of the medication was shown on the dispensed product many people who have paid £9.75 for it would get a very nasty shock!turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long.1 -
I find the contrast between the approval of this drug and the rejection of LFTs.... interesting.rcs1000 said:The new data on the Merck drug looks pretty depressing: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/womp-womp-efficacy-of-mercks-thor-inspired-covid-pill-crumbles-vexing-experts/
Let's hope that the Pfizer pill does not suffer similarly.0 -
Particularly when the medication is significantly cheaper!OldKingCole said:
I have to say that if the cost of the medication was shown on the dispensed product many people who have paid £9.75 for it would get a very nasty shock!turbotubbs said:
Hope things work out for you. On the NHS - something needs to change.DavidL said:Went to see my GP this morning because of headaches. Getting an "emergency" CT scan some time before Christmas and advised to go private for my respiratory issues because nothing is going to happen soon. Told by the GP that the waiting time for gynaecology (not for me, of course) is now 2 years. He sees no prospects of anything improving in the foreseeable.
My GP is an excellent chap and expressed frustration at how many times he is now recommending private health care. He said he is a strong believer in the NHS but the long term underfunding (in his view) has simply meant it cannot cope with something like Covid and the reductions in capacity that the safeguards bring about.
Pretty sobering way to start the day.
I pay to go to the vet for my animals. Its expensive, but thats the cost. Visiting the GP is 'free', except its not really free, we just don't see the price. I have come to believe that we need private GP's that can prescribe NHS medication (pay your 40 quid, or whatever the GP visit is, pick up a prescription, take it Boots/Lloyds/Well etc). Plus I also think patients need to be made more aware of what medical care costs - GP visits should still be free, but you get a note saying how much it has 'cost'. That and prescription medicine - the true cost should be shown somewhere.
We need a politically neutral debate on the NHS, but sadly its been a political football for too long. (Although in my experience pharmacists and even GPs generally point this out and suggest/offer buying over the counter instead where possible - many, many are more expensive than a prescription, of course)
There would be some value in people seeing how much things cost, I agree.0 -
Except given the coronaphiliacs' penchant for making things up, what the virologist really said probably bears no relation to that.eek said:
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"0 -
I don't mind the zero covid crew. They have their own, internally logical, world view which prioritises stamping down on the spread of the disease at the expense of most other things. It is based on at least a version / interpretation of science and the facts. I don't agree with them but they are an important part of the conversation.
Likewise the libertarians / anti-maskers on the backbenches. They have their own internally logical world view which prioritises individual liberty and resisting the long arm of the state at the expense of controlling the spread of the virus. I don't agree with them either and think they're indulging somewhat in histrionics, but we need that voice in there too.
This is how government and public opinion gets the ability to triangulate and bring the public with it. What is more objectionable, and needs to be countered wherever it arises, is basic misinformation and pseudo-science. That includes anti-vax conspiracy theories but also the idea that the government has a cunning plan to lock us all down forever, or that this is some kind of eugenics experiment by the Tories, as well as a lot of the nonsense and moral panic around things like people gathering outdoors, or fist and elbow pumps (over a year since it became evident this thing mainly spreads in the air not from fomites)7 -
Since the pandemic began excess deaths represent a meagre 0.2% of the population, almost all of that was pre-vaccinations. Two years of disruption is not a price worth paying for 0.2% of people.
Post-vaccinations its simply not worth putting life on hold any longer. The NHS should abolish all distancing etc, restore its capacity, and get on with life.
If the NHS is under pressure its because its restricted its capacity. We should stop trying to stop the spread of the virus and let nature take its course, relying on vaccines to prevent the worst of it.1 -
I think crossings should be made safely and legally via humane routes, via proper planes or boats and not dinghies.Farooq said:
So you're a "zero crossings" believer then?Philip_Thompson said:
They're healthy young people dying a horrible and preventable death and there's a simple solution to stop it happening that doesn't restrict the rights of anyone living here.Farooq said:
You seemed concerned about people drowning in the channel in far smaller numbers.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think its too many.Richard_Nabavi said:
You don't think a thousand extra deaths a week, many of them avoidable, is enough?Philip_Thompson said:
The Groupthink is strong that "something must be done, this is something, so this must be done".Eabhal said:
Presenters response was to comment that it showed how misguided many callers were.eek said:
To which the next question should be how do you do that? And drill the person down to he turns silent at which point the interviewer should say "so that would be impossible"...Eabhal said:Radio Scotland phone in has been fun this morning.
Callers flat out refusing to cancel any Christmas plans, asking how many more variants there will be and whether this will the case every Christmas for evermore.
Virologist comes on and responds with zero-covid strategy: "we must stop this variant in its tracks".
"We should not learn to live with it. We must eradicate it now"
To even suggest that death is a part of the circle of life and not to be prevented at all costs is now viewed as a monstrous suggestion by some people.
Most deaths are either the unvaccinated who can own their own choices, or people who are very vulnerable and could die from the common cold or flu or anything else.
NPIs made sense pre-PIs, not anymore. If a thousand 'extra' deaths is the 'new normal' then that's the new normal and that's what we have to live with, though I'm sceptical that excess deaths actually are a thousand a week.
Well, good luck with that.
If anyone who crosses in a dinghy is instantly deported to a third party nation like Rwanda then the dinghies would stop overnight.
We should then offer MORE asylum to more people, but via proper and safe routes not via people smugglers.0 -
Macron's idea of an asylum processing centre in Calais sounded sensible enough. Hopefully Patel can engage on this idea..0
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Email just arrived from Lib Dem HQ. Nice festive title: "It's beginning to feel a lot like Chesham"9
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Good morning bugs and drugs dot com 🤦♀️0
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Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
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1h
the number of people wearing masks in shops and on public transport seems to be…about the same as last week1
