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Could the Tory 41% Bexley majority really be in danger? – politicalbetting.com

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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jailed former Conservative MP Charles Elphicke now released but claiming universal credit and not yet able to make payments owed in court costs
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-59354059

    Why doesn't he get a job!
    Not so easy for ex cons, though I suppose he could try washing dishes or stacking shelves if he can get a job doing that. Bit of a come down from being a former Reed Smith tax partner and Tory MP but it might help pay the bills
    We're regularly told on here by PB Tories that there are plenty of job vacancies.
    There are a number but he has the added hurdle of a criminal conviction before he gets another job
    Yes, that will make it much more difficult for him.

    He won't be getting UC if he is living as a couple with his MP wife though.
    He isn't now, they have separated
    Ah, ok. Wikipedia is out of date then:

    "On his release from prison in September 2021 Elphicke returned to the couple's marital home."
    ......only to find it was empty".
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jailed former Conservative MP Charles Elphicke now released but claiming universal credit and not yet able to make payments owed in court costs
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-59354059

    Why doesn't he get a job!
    Not so easy for ex cons, though I suppose he could try washing dishes or stacking shelves if he can get a job doing that. Bit of a come down from being a former Reed Smith tax partner and Tory MP but it might help pay the bills
    We're regularly told on here by PB Tories that there are plenty of job vacancies.
    There are a number but he has the added hurdle of a criminal conviction before he gets another job
    Yes, that will make it much more difficult for him.

    He won't be getting UC if he is living as a couple with his MP wife though.
    He isn't now, they have separated
    Ah, ok. Wikipedia is out of date then:

    "On his release from prison in September 2021 Elphicke returned to the couple's marital home."
    You can live in the same house as somebody without cohabiting with them.
    True. Can be tricky to prove you are not 'living as a couple' though. UC assessors can be pretty picky.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,637
    What people like politicians in Austria probably don't realise is that a lot of people actively choose to live totally reclusive lifestyles, with some people never leaving their house for any reason. If you bring in mandatory vaccinations, it means agents of the state are going to be entering those people's homes and forcing them to have a vaccine which they don't need to have because they never go anywhere else.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Farooq said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Biden says he's "angry and concerned" about the verdict.

    image

    That is beyond irresponsible. There was a trial. The jury deliberated for several days. They reached an entirely understandable conclusion (even if you disagree you can see why they reached this verdict)

    Justice was done. And the PRESIDENT casts doubt on the verdict and says he is ‘angry’?

    So why not go out and riot against the judicial system. It’s rigged. The president says so

    Biden is as bad as Trump
    It's a really rubbish statement, Trump undermined the election system, Biden is undermining the judicial system. What the fuck is he thinking.
    I cannot think of a statement better designed to alienate floating ‘white’ voters. Those people in the suburbs who went republican in Virginia

    This is Biden saying ‘yes I agree it is bad a white man is acquitted, and I am as angry as you’

    It’s like something from South Africa, pre or post apartheid
    I must be reading a different statement - it seems fine to me.

    Still, you culture warriors need to have something to keep stoking the anger, I guess.
    Hang on. Last year you were quite rightly attacking the Tories for attempting to undermine faith in the judiciary in this country. How come now you are happy with a US president criticising the decision of a jury trial? You and I are quite at liberty to criticise and personally I don't think any of the players came out of this trial looking good at all. But Biden is in a position of power and the last thing he should be doing is saying he is 'angry and concerned' that someone was found not guilty.
    He's 'angry and concerned' but 'the jury has spoken'. He clearly accepts that the latter wins the day... no attempt to overturn or undermine that jury's decision.
    Then what's he concerned about?
    Same as me I guess... a man shoots two others and there's no crime committed?

    Do you honestly think there'd have been the same outcome if Rittenhouse had been black?
    So you think the jury got it wrong then and he should have been locked up?
    I think the process got it wrong, yes. I think the jury was carefully selected, the judge's directions were biased, and the prosecution was poor.

    I ask again: what do you honestly think the trial outcome would have been had Rittenhouse been black?
    Good thing you aren't the President, then. You're effectively saying that the trial result isn't legitimate.

    On your second question - I don't care. That's not what happened and if it does, maybe I'll have a think and answer.
    I do think the trial result isn't legitimate. I would still think that if I were POTUS but I wouldn't say so publicly; neither did Biden.

    Edit: I should clarify that: I acknowledge of course that the trial result is 'legitimate' in a sense that it's gone through due process, I just do not think it was a fair trial.

    On my second question you *know* the answer, you don't have to think about it, you just don't want to say it.
    The answer to your second question is OBVIOUSLY a black man would have had much poorer prospects of getting acquitted, but that does not mean this acquittal was wrong.
    What seems to have been forgotten here (not by you Farooq) is that, in such a case like this, the prosecution has to be show beyond reasonable doubt. Even if you believe Rittenhouse was guilty on the balance of possibilities, I challenge how anyone could say he was guilty beyond reasonable doubt given the evidence presented.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613
    And of course a UK prime minister would not have to speak to a situation where it's conceivable to carry an AR15 to a demonstration and shoot four people and claim self defence.
    Perfectly defensible to be angry about that irrespective of how you consider the jury's decision, given the absurd gun laws.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    For comparison, imagine a UK prime minister saying he is ‘angry and concerned’ about a Not Guilty verdict, brought by a jury, in a highly charged and politicized Old Bailey trial - and imagine him or her saying it just two hours after the verdict.

    It just wouldn’t happen. I hope. Because we are not so corroded by the Culture Wars, yet.

    There is Separation of Powers for a reason. America is perilously close to abandoning this, besieged by the extremists on both sides

    Not yet but not far off.

    Yougov today had more 2019 Tory voters going to ReformUK than Starmer Labour or the LDs, our politics too is increasingly polarised
    And yet. We have the most Centrist Labour leader since they left government.
    And a Tory Party who have abandoned austerity and Thatcherism in word, if not entirely in deed, for a more social democratic direction.
    We have no one to the extreme of either polling 10 % regularly either.
    RefUK are on 5% and the Greens on 10% with Yougov today, the divide is more over culture (over here including Brexit) than economics, as to some extent it increasingly is in the US too
    Is it? I think "culture" unless so broadly drawn as to be meaningless, is overblown here.
    No one on here, for example, argues for roaming the streets with an assault weapon as being fine and dandy.
    The 'culture wars' and 'wokism' are today's equivalent of the 'commie threat' and 'reds under the bed' for modern Rightists. Gotta have something to stoke fear about.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    What people like politicians in Austria probably don't realise is that a lot of people actively choose to live totally reclusive lifestyles, with some people never leaving their house for any reason. If you bring in mandatory vaccinations, it means agents of the state are going to be entering those people's homes and forcing them to have a vaccine which they don't need to have because they never go anywhere else.

    What we don’t get 100% over here is that, in most of Continental Europe - which operates on civil law - the principle is that the community / state is more important than the individual, whereas in Common Law systems, there tends to be the opposite view.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,613

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    For comparison, imagine a UK prime minister saying he is ‘angry and concerned’ about a Not Guilty verdict, brought by a jury, in a highly charged and politicized Old Bailey trial - and imagine him or her saying it just two hours after the verdict.

    It just wouldn’t happen. I hope. Because we are not so corroded by the Culture Wars, yet.

    There is Separation of Powers for a reason. America is perilously close to abandoning this, besieged by the extremists on both sides

    Not yet but not far off.

    Yougov today had more 2019 Tory voters going to ReformUK than Starmer Labour or the LDs, our politics too is increasingly polarised
    And yet. We have the most Centrist Labour leader since they left government.
    And a Tory Party who have abandoned austerity and Thatcherism in word, if not entirely in deed, for a more social democratic direction.
    We have no one to the extreme of either polling 10 % regularly either.
    RefUK are on 5% and the Greens on 10% with Yougov today, the divide is more over culture (over here including Brexit) than economics, as to some extent it increasingly is in the US too
    Is it? I think "culture" unless so broadly drawn as to be meaningless, is overblown here.
    No one on here, for example, argues for roaming the streets with an assault weapon as being fine and dandy.
    The 'culture wars' and 'wokism' are today's equivalent of the 'commie threat' and 'reds under the bed' for modern Rightists. Gotta have something to stoke fear about.
    Indeed.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/scary-future-american-right-national-conservatism-conference/620746/
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    Completely off topic but just spent a sublime hour listening(and watching) Khatia Buniatishvili playing Rach 3 at the Verbier Festival. Not only amazing playing but excellent sound and photography. It's on YouTube - check it out. On topic I am off to North Shropshire on Monday - will report back.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,263
    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What people like politicians in Austria probably don't realise is that a lot of people actively choose to live totally reclusive lifestyles, with some people never leaving their house for any reason. If you bring in mandatory vaccinations, it means agents of the state are going to be entering those people's homes and forcing them to have a vaccine which they don't need to have because they never go anywhere else.

    What we don’t get 100% over here is that, in most of Continental Europe - which operates on civil law - the principle is that the community / state is more important than the individual, whereas in Common Law systems, there tends to be the opposite view.
    That's what I find so confusing about the vaccination rates - I had assumed that would mean that the people in countries like Austria and Germany would all dutifully be vaccinated for the good of the community.

    So clearly it's not quite as simple as the community principle being stronger there.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jailed former Conservative MP Charles Elphicke now released but claiming universal credit and not yet able to make payments owed in court costs
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-59354059

    Why doesn't he get a job!
    Not so easy for ex cons, though I suppose he could try washing dishes or stacking shelves if he can get a job doing that. Bit of a come down from being a former Reed Smith tax partner and Tory MP but it might help pay the bills
    We're regularly told on here by PB Tories that there are plenty of job vacancies.
    There are a number but he has the added hurdle of a criminal conviction before he gets another job
    Yes, that will make it much more difficult for him.

    He won't be getting UC if he is living as a couple with his MP wife though.
    He isn't now, they have separated
    Ah, ok. Wikipedia is out of date then:

    "On his release from prison in September 2021 Elphicke returned to the couple's marital home."
    And he is now in a flat in Fulham

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-59354059
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    Never mind the Tories in Bexley... This thread's certainly in danger!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jailed former Conservative MP Charles Elphicke now released but claiming universal credit and not yet able to make payments owed in court costs
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-59354059

    Why doesn't he get a job!
    Not so easy for ex cons, though I suppose he could try washing dishes or stacking shelves if he can get a job doing that. Bit of a come down from being a former Reed Smith tax partner and Tory MP but it might help pay the bills
    We're regularly told on here by PB Tories that there are plenty of job vacancies.
    There are a number but he has the added hurdle of a criminal conviction before he gets another job
    Yes, that will make it much more difficult for him.

    He won't be getting UC if he is living as a couple with his MP wife though.
    He isn't now, they have separated
    Ah, ok. Wikipedia is out of date then:

    "On his release from prison in September 2021 Elphicke returned to the couple's marital home."
    And he is now in a flat in Fulham

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-59354059
    Yep. My bad.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    For comparison, imagine a UK prime minister saying he is ‘angry and concerned’ about a Not Guilty verdict, brought by a jury, in a highly charged and politicized Old Bailey trial - and imagine him or her saying it just two hours after the verdict.

    It just wouldn’t happen. I hope. Because we are not so corroded by the Culture Wars, yet.

    There is Separation of Powers for a reason. America is perilously close to abandoning this, besieged by the extremists on both sides

    Not yet but not far off.

    Yougov today had more 2019 Tory voters going to ReformUK than Starmer Labour or the LDs, our politics too is increasingly polarised
    And yet. We have the most Centrist Labour leader since they left government.
    And a Tory Party who have abandoned austerity and Thatcherism in word, if not entirely in deed, for a more social democratic direction.
    We have no one to the extreme of either polling 10 % regularly either.
    RefUK are on 5% and the Greens on 10% with Yougov today, the divide is more over culture (over here including Brexit) than economics, as to some extent it increasingly is in the US too
    Is it? I think "culture" unless so broadly drawn as to be meaningless, is overblown here.
    No one on here, for example, argues for roaming the streets with an assault weapon as being fine and dandy.
    The 'culture wars' and 'wokism' are today's equivalent of the 'commie threat' and 'reds under the bed' for modern Rightists. Gotta have something to stoke fear about.
    Yes. But I think it is wider than that. We pretty much have a broad economic consensus just now. So most people, and both main Parties are "centrists", in that sense.
    So we resort to arguing about peripheral matters. Which we broadly dump in a box and call it "culture". But the vast majority have nuanced views on these issues as well, far from the extremists on either side.
    It is the narcissism of small differences mostly focused on.
    Which is why the Paterson stuff has been so damaging. Open corruption, openly covered up?
    Open utter incompetence in the mechanics of so doing?
    No thanks say most.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    edited November 2021
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    For comparison, imagine a UK prime minister saying he is ‘angry and concerned’ about a Not Guilty verdict, brought by a jury, in a highly charged and politicized Old Bailey trial - and imagine him or her saying it just two hours after the verdict.

    It just wouldn’t happen. I hope. Because we are not so corroded by the Culture Wars, yet.

    There is Separation of Powers for a reason. America is perilously close to abandoning this, besieged by the extremists on both sides

    Not yet but not far off.

    Yougov today had more 2019 Tory voters going to ReformUK than Starmer Labour or the LDs, our politics too is increasingly polarised
    And yet. We have the most Centrist Labour leader since they left government.
    And a Tory Party who have abandoned austerity and Thatcherism in word, if not entirely in deed, for a more social democratic direction.
    We have no one to the extreme of either polling 10 % regularly either.
    RefUK are on 5% and the Greens on 10% with Yougov today, the divide is more over culture (over here including Brexit) than economics, as to some extent it increasingly is in the US too
    Is it? I think "culture" unless so broadly drawn as to be meaningless, is overblown here.
    No one on here, for example, argues for roaming the streets with an assault weapon as being fine and dandy.
    Yes but that has never been the case, the US has always been exceptional on its gun laws.

    However battles over immigration, globlalisation, wokeism, racial inequality, gender and trans, statues, lockdowns, facemasks and vaccine passports, the extent of measures to tackle climate change etc rage here just as in the US and indeed most of the western world now
This discussion has been closed.