Could the Tory 41% Bexley majority really be in danger? – politicalbetting.com

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Could the Tory 41% Bexley majority really be in danger? – politicalbetting.com

One of the things about by-election betting is that unless you have a fair idea of what is happening on the ground then it is hard to come to any conclusions.

Read the full story here

Unpopular

First first?

philiph

First to have no idea!

Generally I think it is easier for the minnow to create a giant upset rather than the main opposition party.

NickPalmer

There's a fair Labour effort in Bexley - I've had several requests to help and am going over on Monday. I wouldn't say it was frantic, though - the expectation is a respectably reduction in the majority.

HYUFD

On today's Yougov not at all.

Indeed even on the 5% swing to Labour it shows, the Conservatives would still get 56% and Labour would get just 25% in Old Bexley and Sidcup.

I will be going to Sidcup to campaign on Sunday afternoon

HYUFD

George Monbiot bursts into tears over jailing of Extinction Rebellion protestors

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1461694791268372488?s=20

williamglenn

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

theakes

I heard and read that Labour are "throwing the kitchen sink at it"!
The Liberal Democrats are certainly doing that in Shropshire North which is harder to organise because of its spread and several small towns/villages etc.
I reckon a wager on the Cons suffering a double reversal would be good value.

philiph

theakes said:

I heard and read that Labour are "throwing the kitchen sink at it"!
The Liberal Democrats are certainly doing that in Shropshire North which is harder to organise because of its spread and several small towns/villages etc.
I reckon a wager on the Cons suffering a double reversal would be good value.

Can Labour afford kitchen sinks to throw?

Stark_Dawning

The question is: is Boris currently so adored by the voters of Old Bexley and Sidcup that they won't be prepared to do a Christchurch?

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

On today's Yougov not at all.

Indeed even on the 5% swing to Labour it shows, the Conservatives would still get 56% and Labour would get just 25% in Old Bexley and Sidcup.

I will be going to Sidcup to campaign on Sunday afternoon

National GE polling bears little relation to the unique circumstances of a by election.

The LibDems weren't on 35% in the national polling ahead of their recent by election win, were they?

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung journalist:

"In the UK there has been an incidence of around 400 for months, but not nearly the same panic as in Germany. The hospitals are not at their limit because of covid patients. The shortage of intensive care beds in Germany seems to me to be the result of a major political failure."

https://twitter.com/PhilipPlickert/status/1461435946465964037

It's the sudden nature of their rise that's the real issue for Germany and much of Europe. We have a fairly stable hospitalisation funnel which has stayed between 5k and 7k for inpatients for England for most of the summer and autumn, it's currently falling despite our high level of cases which is probably a pretty good sign that the booster programme is working.

I also think there's an unnecessary level of panic in Europe. They don't need lockdowns and the rest of it but they do need to tell people that everyone is going to get COVID whether or not you want to you will get it and that means the only way to not get severe symptoms is to get vaccinated. Portugal, Spain and I think even the UK have been pretty successful with this messaging. Here it's clear that 10% of adults are willing to take their chances with being infected and no amount of poking and prodding will get them over the line so locking down to protect them isn't necessarily going to prevent them from getting it.

In most European countries they haven't faced up to this basic fact that we will all get COVID, probably more than once and sometimes that will result in unvaccinated people and vaccinated older people dying.

I wonder whether these countries would change their unlockdown steps knowing now what they do about exit waves and seeing our example, or would they steadfastly stick to the same dogma of keeping cases down at any cost. I worry that the latter view still prevails in most of Europe and they will, once again, try and keep cases down when they come out of lockdown in April/May 2022.

rottenborough

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

NerysHughes

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

You think he will live until 2025?

TOPPING

fpt

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

isam said:

Big crossover between fans of Sir Keir and believing everything Azeem Rafiq said/forgiving his hypocrisy

Remember it was the LotO who instigated the ‘believe anyone who makes any allegation’ culture that led to the Carl Beech debacle, as well as almost destroying Cliff Richard, Paul Gambaccini and Jimmy Tarbuck. I suppose they are easy enough targets for edgy lefties for it not to matter

What hypocrisy. Has Rafiq made claims to be a saint? Has Rafiq and his gang pinned poor white boys down and forced Halal meat down their throats? Has he spent years making endless comments about whitey designed to belittle them?

The harsh reality is that some people are desperate to defend the racists and show the paki to be a liar so that they can justify more racism.

Hang on. Criticising Rafiq is *not* the same as defending the people, and behaviour, he was complaining about.

That's right. With a slight trepidation (since yesterday I was misconstrued by some) the following is how I see this -

There's criticism of Rafiq (including from himself) for his racist comments.

Then there's using the comments in order to degrade his testimony about racism at YCCC and even the painting of him as being worse than those who subjected him to racist bullying because he now stands revealed as a racist AND a hypocrite.

These 2 things are easy to tell apart and the problem (which is quite a big one) is purely with the 2nd.

It is an interesting point. I think people were wondering about your use of "anti-semitism" on the one hand, and "racism" on the other. To invoke my new favourite book:

"Jews Don’t Count is a searing look at why anti-Semitism is often seen as a lesser form of racism, with a particular focus on the political left. To be Jewish, explains Baddiel, is to be subject to the contradictory belief that “Jews are somehow both sub-human and humanity’s secret masters”.

Now I have no doubt you were doing nothing of the sort - you seem the kind of left wing type that merely uses anti-semitism as a synonym for racism - but your fellow leftwing travellers aren't always as precise in the demarcation.

I think the problem that some have with anti-semitism is that it's victims are a bit... successful. The stereotype of the rich Jew etc..

And of course, you have Israel, where the narrative is that the Jews are the winners, the oppressors etc.

So you are asking people to empathise with rich oppressors. Who are winning.

Dave is also very good on this. For example you say yourself "the stereotype of the rich Jew". I have no idea, stats-wise what the breakdown is of Jews' wealth vs any particular metric but it is a stereotype.

But yes you describe the Left's journey to champions of Israel (underdog, post-WWII, let's all go to work on a Kibbutz) to believing them to be a vile, oppressive regime which, as per that tweet earlier, controls even our saintly Priti.

(NOTE: not all my favourite books are written by people called Dave. Although Dave Mantel's latest and final of the trilogy is a cracker.)

dixiedean

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

rottenborough

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung journalist:

"In the UK there has been an incidence of around 400 for months, but not nearly the same panic as in Germany. The hospitals are not at their limit because of covid patients. The shortage of intensive care beds in Germany seems to me to be the result of a major political failure."

https://twitter.com/PhilipPlickert/status/1461435946465964037

It's the sudden nature of their rise that's the real issue for Germany and much of Europe. We have a fairly stable hospitalisation funnel which has stayed between 5k and 7k for inpatients for England for most of the summer and autumn, it's currently falling despite our high level of cases which is probably a pretty good sign that the booster programme is working.

I also think there's an unnecessary level of panic in Europe. They don't need lockdowns and the rest of it but they do need to tell people that everyone is going to get COVID whether or not you want to you will get it and that means the only way to not get severe symptoms is to get vaccinated. Portugal, Spain and I think even the UK have been pretty successful with this messaging. Here it's clear that 10% of adults are willing to take their chances with being infected and no amount of poking and prodding will get them over the line so locking down to protect them isn't necessarily going to prevent them from getting it.

In most European countries they haven't faced up to this basic fact that we will all get COVID, probably more than once and sometimes that will result in unvaccinated people and vaccinated older people dying.

I wonder whether these countries would change their unlockdown steps knowing now what they do about exit waves and seeing our example, or would they steadfastly stick to the same dogma of keeping cases down at any cost. I worry that the latter view still prevails in most of Europe and they will, once again, try and keep cases down when they come out of lockdown in April/May 2022.

I read somewhere in last day or so that in Germany and many countries in that neck of the woods there is a strong kind of nature's best with healing thing that goes on. So a lot of people are anti-vax.

They'll be spending Xmas in lockdown.

dixiedean

NerysHughes said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

You think he will live until 2025?

You raise an interesting, yet disturbing possibility.
Right now the two favourites for nomination are Biden and Trump.
There is a good chance one of them won't make it through death or incapacity.
There is a non discountable chance neither will make it from nomination to inauguration day.

rottenborough

NerysHughes said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

You think he will live until 2025?

We get an update later apparently.

MaxPB

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung journalist:

"In the UK there has been an incidence of around 400 for months, but not nearly the same panic as in Germany. The hospitals are not at their limit because of covid patients. The shortage of intensive care beds in Germany seems to me to be the result of a major political failure."

https://twitter.com/PhilipPlickert/status/1461435946465964037

It's the sudden nature of their rise that's the real issue for Germany and much of Europe. We have a fairly stable hospitalisation funnel which has stayed between 5k and 7k for inpatients for England for most of the summer and autumn, it's currently falling despite our high level of cases which is probably a pretty good sign that the booster programme is working.

I also think there's an unnecessary level of panic in Europe. They don't need lockdowns and the rest of it but they do need to tell people that everyone is going to get COVID whether or not you want to you will get it and that means the only way to not get severe symptoms is to get vaccinated. Portugal, Spain and I think even the UK have been pretty successful with this messaging. Here it's clear that 10% of adults are willing to take their chances with being infected and no amount of poking and prodding will get them over the line so locking down to protect them isn't necessarily going to prevent them from getting it.

In most European countries they haven't faced up to this basic fact that we will all get COVID, probably more than once and sometimes that will result in unvaccinated people and vaccinated older people dying.

I wonder whether these countries would change their unlockdown steps knowing now what they do about exit waves and seeing our example, or would they steadfastly stick to the same dogma of keeping cases down at any cost. I worry that the latter view still prevails in most of Europe and they will, once again, try and keep cases down when they come out of lockdown in April/May 2022.

I read somewhere in last day or so that in Germany and many countries in that neck of the woods there is a strong kind of nature's best with healing thing that goes on. So a lot of people are anti-vax.

They'll be spending Xmas in lockdown.

Yeah my mother-in-law is one of these people and she initially refused the vaccine but my wife told her we wouldn't visit her at Xmas unless she was double vaccinated + three weeks by the time we're scheduled to arrive, she has since got the Moderna vaccine and is double jabbed since about the end of September. Big parts of Germany, Switzerland and Austria have got these "at one with nature" hippie dippie types middle class types who don't believe in western medicine.

eek

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

NerysHughes

dixiedean said:

NerysHughes said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

You think he will live until 2025?

You raise an interesting, yet disturbing possibility.
Right now the two favourites for nomination are Biden and Trump.
There is a good chance one of them won't make it through death or incapacity.
There is a non discountable chance neither will make it from nomination to inauguration day.

Anyone can die at anytime but when you vote people so old to be President you are vastly increasing that chance.

Everythime I see Biden I think how ill he looks.

Yesterday I went to visit a friend who is 78, spent the afternoon chatting. He is in really good physical shape.Around 4 p.m. he was chatting about Brighton FC when he fell asleep whilst talking. It was hilarious, he woke up 10 minutes later, wondering what had happened. I wonder if Biden does such things.

LostPassword

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

HYUFD

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

On today's Yougov not at all.

Indeed even on the 5% swing to Labour it shows, the Conservatives would still get 56% and Labour would get just 25% in Old Bexley and Sidcup.

I will be going to Sidcup to campaign on Sunday afternoon

National GE polling bears little relation to the unique circumstances of a by election.

The LibDems weren't on 35% in the national polling ahead of their recent by election win, were they?

Labour v Tory by elections tend to reflect national polling.

Tory v LD by elections don't. First because Tory voters are more willing to give a protest vote to the LDs than go the whole hog and vote Labour.

Second as the LDs have a far better by election machine than Labour do and always flood by election seats with LD activists

MrEd

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

I’m finding it hard to imagine any scenario at the moment where the Democrats win in Nov 24. Yes, it’s three years away and lots can happen but many of the issues causing disruption seem to be long, not short, term and there is an obvious split developing between progressives and non-progressives when it comes to the agenda. Harris looks to be toast (and there is no reason to think she can pull things back), Biden has obvious health issues and Pelosi is set to retire. Anyone who thinks Pete B will be the saviour is off their rocker - the parental cafe story alone will sink his chances as the idea a US President can take time off will go down like a lead balloon with the swing voters they need.

MrEd

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

That’s a very good post @LostPassword. My caveat is that I don’t think Labour supporters seem that enthused at the moment. SKS is not exactly blazing a trail and we have forgotten how the last by-election saw Labour throw everything it at defending their seat and still only scraped home. I think they are banking on what you said but I can’t see Lab voters turning out

tlg86

NerysHughes said:

dixiedean said:

NerysHughes said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

You think he will live until 2025?

You raise an interesting, yet disturbing possibility.
Right now the two favourites for nomination are Biden and Trump.
There is a good chance one of them won't make it through death or incapacity.
There is a non discountable chance neither will make it from nomination to inauguration day.

Anyone can die at anytime but when you vote people so old to be President you are vastly increasing that chance.

Everythime I see Biden I think how ill he looks.

Yesterday I went to visit a friend who is 78, spent the afternoon chatting. He is in really good physical shape.Around 4 p.m. he was chatting about Brighton FC when he fell asleep whilst talking. It was hilarious, he woke up 10 minutes later, wondering what had happened. I wonder if Biden does such things.

That's a joke in Yes Minister:

Sir Arnold: Then we might be able to move Corbett to Employment.

Sir Humphrey: Oh. Why? Is Fred definitely going?

Sir Arnold: Yes. He keeps falling asleep in Cabinet.

Sir Humphrey: I thought they all did.

Sir Arnold: Yes, but not while they are actually talking...

OnlyLivingBoy

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

I would have thought the Lib Dems would win Windsor at a canter, no? I've got a friend who's a long-time LD activist in the seat, I might take soundings.

LostPassword

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

The obvious counter to this argument is the Dudley West by-election of 1994.

HYUFD

MrEd said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

I’m finding it hard to imagine any scenario at the moment where the Democrats win in Nov 24. Yes, it’s three years away and lots can happen but many of the issues causing disruption seem to be long, not short, term and there is an obvious split developing between progressives and non-progressives when it comes to the agenda. Harris looks to be toast (and there is no reason to think she can pull things back), Biden has obvious health issues and Pelosi is set to retire. Anyone who thinks Pete B will be the saviour is off their rocker - the parental cafe story alone will sink his chances as the idea a US President can take time off will go down like a lead balloon with the swing voters they need.

Am going with my wife to a talk at the Oxford Union tonight by Joseph P Kennedy III, who could be an outside bet if he wins the Massachusetts governorship next year.

I think either he or Buttigieg are the Democrats best chance for 2024

eek

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

I would have thought the Lib Dems would win Windsor at a canter, no? I've got a friend who's a long-time LD activist in the seat, I might take soundings.

Oh the Lib Dems will win it at a canter - but the reality that a lot of the home counties are now Tory / Lib Dem marginals was something I wanted to keep quiet for a while.

NerysHughes

MrEd said:

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

That’s a very good post @LostPassword. My caveat is that I don’t think Labour supporters seem that enthused at the moment. SKS is not exactly blazing a trail and we have forgotten how the last by-election saw Labour throw everything it at defending their seat and still only scraped home. I think they are banking on what you said but I can’t see Lab voters turning out

I think this site forgets what normal Mid Term is. Governments lose huge numbers of local councillors, lose by elections and are regularly behind in the polls.

Labour being ahead in a couple of polls recently is seen as extraordinary.

After 11.5 years of a Tory Government they should be 10 points clear and winning everything.

Even last night despite everything thats happened recently the Tories gained a Council seat. That should not be happening. Even in Liverpool Labours vote share in the 3 by elections yesterday was down significantly.

OnlyLivingBoy

MrEd said:

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

That’s a very good post @LostPassword. My caveat is that I don’t think Labour supporters seem that enthused at the moment. SKS is not exactly blazing a trail and we have forgotten how the last by-election saw Labour throw everything it at defending their seat and still only scraped home. I think they are banking on what you said but I can’t see Lab voters turning out

You're right, SKS doesn't massively inspire right now. He's not a turn off though. I'd be interested in knowing more about who Labour's voters are in the seat. My guess is you are getting more liberal minded graduate professionals in the seat these days, people priced out of areas of SE London like mine that are closer in. That's the kind of demographic that might be quite motivated to turn out to vote against Tory sleaze. I don't really have any reason to think that would be enough to win the seat though, even at a by-election in the current climate. FWIW I did have a gut feeling we would hold B&S but right now OB&S feels out of reach.

OnlyLivingBoy

eek said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

I would have thought the Lib Dems would win Windsor at a canter, no? I've got a friend who's a long-time LD activist in the seat, I might take soundings.

Oh the Lib Dems will win it at a canter - but the reality that a lot of the home counties are now Tory / Lib Dem marginals was something I wanted to keep quiet for a while.

Sorry for spoiling the surprise party.

LostPassword

NerysHughes said:

MrEd said:

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

That’s a very good post @LostPassword. My caveat is that I don’t think Labour supporters seem that enthused at the moment. SKS is not exactly blazing a trail and we have forgotten how the last by-election saw Labour throw everything it at defending their seat and still only scraped home. I think they are banking on what you said but I can’t see Lab voters turning out

I think this site forgets what normal Mid Term is. Governments lose huge numbers of local councillors, lose by elections and are regularly behind in the polls.

Labour being ahead in a couple of polls recently is seen as extraordinary.

After 11.5 years of a Tory Government they should be 10 points clear and winning everything.

Even last night despite everything thats happened recently the Tories gained a Council seat. That should not be happening. Even in Liverpool Labours vote share in the 3 by elections yesterday was down significantly.

But that was precisely the point of my post. I was drawing a contrast between a normal mid-term by-election result, where the government majority was slashed because government voters stayed at home (which did not presage defeat at the next GE) with a different by-election where the Opposition party put on votes, and this did lead to the government losing the following general election.

So it's bizarre that you would then make a post accusing me of not recognising what mid-term by-elections look like.

Stark_Dawning

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

I live in Windsor. The Lib Dems? Really? Don't look like they stand an earthly to me.

NerysHughes

LostPassword said:

NerysHughes said:

MrEd said:

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

That’s a very good post @LostPassword. My caveat is that I don’t think Labour supporters seem that enthused at the moment. SKS is not exactly blazing a trail and we have forgotten how the last by-election saw Labour throw everything it at defending their seat and still only scraped home. I think they are banking on what you said but I can’t see Lab voters turning out

I think this site forgets what normal Mid Term is. Governments lose huge numbers of local councillors, lose by elections and are regularly behind in the polls.

Labour being ahead in a couple of polls recently is seen as extraordinary.

After 11.5 years of a Tory Government they should be 10 points clear and winning everything.

Even last night despite everything thats happened recently the Tories gained a Council seat. That should not be happening. Even in Liverpool Labours vote share in the 3 by elections yesterday was down significantly.

But that was precisely the point of my post. I was drawing a contrast between a normal mid-term by-election result, where the government majority was slashed because government voters stayed at home (which did not presage defeat at the next GE) with a different by-election where the Opposition party put on votes, and this did lead to the government losing the following general election.

So it's bizarre that you would then make a post accusing me of not recognising what mid-term by-elections look like.

Sorry I was not accusing you at all, I was agreeing with you totally. Sorry for not making that clear.

SirNorfolkPassmore

LostPassword said:

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

The obvious counter to this argument is the Dudley West by-election of 1994.

Why is that a counter to the argument?

Isn't it the same thing? The Tories were in Government in 1994. Labour gained Dudley West by essentially winning the same number of votes as they did in 1992, while the Tories got less than a quarter of their 1992 voters to come out.

Scott_xP

Boris Johnson strips Transport for the North of powers after it criticises his rail cuts
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/transport-for-north-tfn-rail-b1960906.html

Nigelb

No idea of this is actually what’s going on, but interesting.

What's behind the rapid disappearance of the delta variant in Japan? It could be self-extinction.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/11/18/national/delta-variant-self-destruction-theory/

SirNorfolkPassmore

Stark_Dawning said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

I live in Windsor. The Lib Dems? Really? Don't look like they stand an earthly to me.

Why? Start from second, reasonable local council base, area voted Remain (although not massively), not northern, worried about development/planning, swing required under 19% compared with 25% achieved in Chesham.

I'd not say it was a shoo-in, but they'll fancy it, surely, and with good reason?

LostPassword

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

LostPassword said:

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

The obvious counter to this argument is the Dudley West by-election of 1994.

Why is that a counter to the argument?

Isn't it the same thing? The Tories were in Government in 1994. Labour gained Dudley West by essentially winning the same number of votes as they did in 1992, while the Tories got less than a quarter of their 1992 voters to come out.

I guess my argument wasn't clear. I was saying that the dramatic reduction in Labour's majority in Leeds Central was achieved by the Lib Dems even though the Lib Dems didn't gain any voters, and so that was a metric which would help determine whether it was a significant by-election, compared to Crewe and Nantwich, (or indeed Chesham and Amersham) where the Opposition added lots of voters.

But that's what Labour did in Dudley West, and we all know what happened in 1997.

Scott_xP

Comment from Matt Kelly, editor in chief, The New European regarding #remorsegate and Boris Johnson's threat to sue the newspaper: https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/1461686492754067456/photo/1

kinabalu

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

One awaits the inevitable crass Trump quote involving the words "Joe"and "ass".

TheScreamingEagles

Scott_xP said:

Boris Johnson strips Transport for the North of powers after it criticises his rail cuts
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/transport-for-north-tfn-rail-b1960906.html

Boris Johnson is as nearly a big cock juggling thunder c**** as the FIA.

MattW

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung journalist:

"In the UK there has been an incidence of around 400 for months, but not nearly the same panic as in Germany. The hospitals are not at their limit because of covid patients. The shortage of intensive care beds in Germany seems to me to be the result of a major political failure."

https://twitter.com/PhilipPlickert/status/1461435946465964037

It's the sudden nature of their rise that's the real issue for Germany and much of Europe. We have a fairly stable hospitalisation funnel which has stayed between 5k and 7k for inpatients for England for most of the summer and autumn, it's currently falling despite our high level of cases which is probably a pretty good sign that the booster programme is working.

I also think there's an unnecessary level of panic in Europe. They don't need lockdowns and the rest of it but they do need to tell people that everyone is going to get COVID whether or not you want to you will get it and that means the only way to not get severe symptoms is to get vaccinated. Portugal, Spain and I think even the UK have been pretty successful with this messaging. Here it's clear that 10% of adults are willing to take their chances with being infected and no amount of poking and prodding will get them over the line so locking down to protect them isn't necessarily going to prevent them from getting it.

In most European countries they haven't faced up to this basic fact that we will all get COVID, probably more than once and sometimes that will result in unvaccinated people and vaccinated older people dying.

I wonder whether these countries would change their unlockdown steps knowing now what they do about exit waves and seeing our example, or would they steadfastly stick to the same dogma of keeping cases down at any cost. I worry that the latter view still prevails in most of Europe and they will, once again, try and keep cases down when they come out of lockdown in April/May 2022.

I read somewhere in last day or so that in Germany and many countries in that neck of the woods there is a strong kind of nature's best with healing thing that goes on. So a lot of people are anti-vax.

They'll be spending Xmas in lockdown.

Yeah my mother-in-law is one of these people and she initially refused the vaccine but my wife told her we wouldn't visit her at Xmas unless she was double vaccinated + three weeks by the time we're scheduled to arrive, she has since got the Moderna vaccine and is double jabbed since about the end of September. Big parts of Germany, Switzerland and Austria have got these "at one with nature" hippie dippie types middle class types who don't believe in western medicine.

Yes - the history is fascinating. That region is Rudolph Steiner central.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, no.

Con hold.

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

No idea of this is actually what’s going on, but interesting.

What's behind the rapid disappearance of the delta variant in Japan? It could be self-extinction.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/11/18/national/delta-variant-self-destruction-theory/

Isn't the Delta subvariant in the UK also an offshoot of mutations in the same A394V site? It also looks like it's less deadly and causes lower incidence of severe symptoms. Could the virus be heading towards self-immolation?!

SirNorfolkPassmore

LostPassword said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

LostPassword said:

LostPassword said:

@MrEd suggested earlier that the period reminded him of a couple of years into the Blair Ministry. On that basis I'd suggest that the 1999 Leeds Central By-Election might be a good precedent to consider.

In that by-election the Lib Dems cut the Labour majority by 38.5pp purely by turning out their general election votes while Labour voters didn't bother - turnout was down 34.8pp to a risible 19.9%.

A similar result in Old Bexley and Sidcup might see the Tories scrape home with ~11k votes to ~10.5k for Labour.

If the result is more like Crewe and Nantwich (2008), where the Tories won the seat with an increase in their absolute number of votes on a turnout very similar to the previous general election, then it would be indicative of much more serious problems for the Tories.

Edit: So I would ignore the size of the majority and look at the absolute number of Labour votes. If they put on votes compared to the general election then that would be a great result.

The obvious counter to this argument is the Dudley West by-election of 1994.

Why is that a counter to the argument?

Isn't it the same thing? The Tories were in Government in 1994. Labour gained Dudley West by essentially winning the same number of votes as they did in 1992, while the Tories got less than a quarter of their 1992 voters to come out.

I guess my argument wasn't clear. I was saying that the dramatic reduction in Labour's majority in Leeds Central was achieved by the Lib Dems even though the Lib Dems didn't gain any voters, and so that was a metric which would help determine whether it was a significant by-election, compared to Crewe and Nantwich, (or indeed Chesham and Amersham) where the Opposition added lots of voters.

But that's what Labour did in Dudley West, and we all know what happened in 1997.

I see your point now. Although I'd have thought it's reasonably common, in Labour/Tory by-elections in particular, for the gaining party to achieve a similar vote to the last election (turnouts tend to be lower, often quite a bit lower, so maintaining your number is a pretty solid result).

The situation differs a bit in classic Lib Dem by-election wins - they do tend to come out of nowhere and win votes from people who scarcely knew they existed (other than maybe in local elections) a fortnight previously. Whereas Labour/Tory are fairly well known quantities.

TheScreamingEagles

Fuck The FIA. Those cock juggling thunder c**** might as well give the title to the Dutch shunt (sic) now before we even race on Sunday.

eek

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_xP said:

Boris Johnson strips Transport for the North of powers after it criticises his rail cuts
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/transport-for-north-tfn-rail-b1960906.html

Boris Johnson is as nearly a big cock juggling thunder c**** as the FIA.

Boris is petty and vindictive - I thought everyone would know that from his 2019 culling of those with any independent thought within the Tory party.

SirNorfolkPassmore

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Stark_Dawning said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

I live in Windsor. The Lib Dems? Really? Don't look like they stand an earthly to me.

Why? Start from second, reasonable local council base, area voted Remain (although not massively), not northern, worried about development/planning, swing required under 19% compared with 25% achieved in Chesham.

I'd not say it was a shoo-in, but they'll fancy it, surely, and with good reason?

By the way, I doubt there will be a Windsor by-election as bankruptcy isn't an automatic disqualification any more for MPs.

Gardenwalker

Scott_xP said:

Boris Johnson strips Transport for the North of powers after it criticises his rail cuts
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/transport-for-north-tfn-rail-b1960906.html

Quite logical.

Why the fuck should northern people have anything to do with transport infrastructure in the north?

eek

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

Boris Johnson strips Transport for the North of powers after it criticises his rail cuts
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/transport-for-north-tfn-rail-b1960906.html

Quite logical.

Why the fuck should northern people have anything to do with transport infrastructure in the north?

I think it's more how dear experts criticise my make believe fag packet plans. Remember post Brexit, we don't listen to experts anymore.

MaxPB

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

Boris Johnson strips Transport for the North of powers after it criticises his rail cuts
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/transport-for-north-tfn-rail-b1960906.html

Quite logical.

Why the fuck should northern people have anything to do with transport infrastructure in the north?

I think it's more how dear experts criticise my make believe fag packet plans. Remember post Brexit, we don't listen to experts anymore.

Except the ones in the treasury ruining the country.

BlancheLivermore

I missed this earlier from the New European

kinabalu

MrEd said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

I’m finding it hard to imagine any scenario at the moment where the Democrats win in Nov 24. Yes, it’s three years away and lots can happen but many of the issues causing disruption seem to be long, not short, term and there is an obvious split developing between progressives and non-progressives when it comes to the agenda. Harris looks to be toast (and there is no reason to think she can pull things back), Biden has obvious health issues and Pelosi is set to retire. Anyone who thinks Pete B will be the saviour is off their rocker - the parental cafe story alone will sink his chances as the idea a US President can take time off will go down like a lead balloon with the swing voters they need.

The Republicans are the slight betting favourites at 1.96. Agree they should be shorter. The big problem they have imo is Donald Trump. They need to find a way for him not to be the candidate. I think they will but I admit that's intuition and little else. I have no clue what the actual path looks like from here to a not Donald Trump getting the ticket for WH24. You will have more insight on this, I'd have thought. I also don't think Biden will be the Dem candidate. So, for me, WH24 is wide open, both as to which party wins and who the person is.

OnlyLivingBoy

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

DavidL

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

glw

rottenborough said:

I read somewhere in last day or so that in Germany and many countries in that neck of the woods there is a strong kind of nature's best with healing thing that goes on. So a lot of people are anti-vax.

They'll be spending Xmas in lockdown.

On the radio a guest from Austria said that people there were more likely to believe in homeopathy. So presumably Austrians are injecting themselves with highly diluted SARS-CoV-2.

kinabalu

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

Shades of Guppy there.

MaxPB

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

TheScreamingEagles

My irony meter just died.

Nigel Farage lecturing Azeem Rafiq about antisemitism.

Next up David Irving to put the boot into Azeem Rafiq.

kinabalu

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

TheScreamingEagles

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

The damage for Boris Johnson is that whether he said it or not enough people can imagine him saying it.

In Boris Johnson’s defence his utter fidelity to his previous wives will help him rebut the vile smear.

DavidL

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

Glad to hear that. Have heard enough stories of people being more affected by the booster than the original vaccines to be a little concerned. Did you get the flu jab at the same time too?

MikeSmithson

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

By my measures Windsor looks a cert. 54% Remain - 36% grads - LDs in clear second - close to W London where many activists are based.

eek

1 for TSE in the most things Crypto based are dodgy department (and football clubs doing anything for money)

https://twitter.com/uglygame/status/1461707389493731340

*Breaking*
Man City has suspended its partnership with ghostship crypto partner 3Key, “pending further investigations.”

This comes less than two hours before 3Key had been due to provide documentary evidence of its existence.
1/

IshmaelZ

glw said:

rottenborough said:

I read somewhere in last day or so that in Germany and many countries in that neck of the woods there is a strong kind of nature's best with healing thing that goes on. So a lot of people are anti-vax.

They'll be spending Xmas in lockdown.

On the radio a guest from Austria said that people there were more likely to believe in homeopathy. So presumably Austrians are injecting themselves with highly diluted SARS-CoV-2.

Which might actually work. Homeopathy is much sillier than that.

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

Either Boris said something utterly unforgivable about his wife, or he didn't say it but is prepared to stand idly by when it would be trivially easy to vindicate his own and his wife's honour by suing the NE out of existence. So it doesn't make much odds whether you believe it.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

My irony meter just died.

Nigel Farage lecturing Azeem Rafiq about antisemitism.

Next up David Irving to put the boot into Azeem Rafiq.

He's more likely to cast doubt on the existence of Azeem Rafiq.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

My irony meter just died.

Nigel Farage lecturing Azeem Rafiq about antisemitism.

Next up David Irving to put the boot into Azeem Rafiq.

The interview with him on R4 yesterday was genuinely upsetting. It is appalling that anyone is treated like that. And so recently too. It’s like something out of 60s. People really should know better.

TheScreamingEagles

eek said:

1 for TSE in the most things Crypto based are dodgy department (and football clubs doing anything for money)

https://twitter.com/uglygame/status/1461707389493731340

*Breaking*
Man City has suspended its partnership with ghostship crypto partner 3Key, “pending further investigations.”

This comes less than two hours before 3Key had been due to provide documentary evidence of its existence.
1/

There’s so much I want to say about this.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

The damage for Boris Johnson is that whether he said it or not enough people can imagine him saying it.

In Boris Johnson’s defence his utter fidelity to his previous wives will help him rebut the vile smear.

It's a load of crap to get remainers to buy more newspapers. Their relevance is going down the drain and they've got to try and stay in the public eye. With the virus and other scandals, Brexit is, finally, off the agenda and so are they. They don't even make the "tomorrow's headline" twitter accounts these days.

Stark_Dawning

MikeSmithson said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

By my measures Windsor looks a cert. 54% Remain - 36% grads - LDs in clear second - close to W London where many activists are based.

You fail to understand the mindset of the average Windsor resident - for us having a castle and a Tory MP are the ultimate in must-have status symbols.

DavidL

Another 387k booster doses yesterday. This definitely needs added to the successes.

Scott_xP

Official figures show the UK has recorded 157 COVID-19 related deaths and 44,242 positive cases of the virus in the latest 24-hour period

For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com

Stuartinromford

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

The damage for Boris Johnson is that whether he said it or not enough people can imagine him saying it.

In Boris Johnson’s defence his utter fidelity to his previous wives will help him rebut the vile smear.

When John Major came down on that Private Eye wannabe like a tonne of bricks, he was able to because the story about him was untrue.

So Boris either goes nuclear (which may be tricky) or ignores the story as a non-story in a non-paper.

The stupid thing is to give the damn thing legs. Which he's done.

And even if the report is misleading-to-inaccurate, well that's karma...

BlancheLivermore

It's very rare for me to agree entirely with Guy

Guy Verhofstadt
@guyverhofstadt
11m
When the elementary dignity of one talented woman is a threat to state interests... you’re running a very weak, unjust and inhumane regime
#WhereIsPengShuai

AlistairM

Scott_xP said:

Official figures show the UK has recorded 157 COVID-19 related deaths and 44,242 positive cases of the virus in the latest 24-hour period

For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com

Cases up ~4K on last week but hospital admissions and deaths still trending downwards. Very obvious booster effect now. Admissions are down almost 18% from the previous week.

MaxPB

DavidL said:

Another 387k booster doses yesterday. This definitely needs added to the successes.

Yes, at Xmas - 3 weeks we'll be at 20m booster doses done, at Xmas - 1 week (which is probably how long it actually takes to get significantly better protection) we'll be at 25-27m booster doses done and probably anyone in groups 1-9 who want one will have been able to get one.

Burgessian

Stark_Dawning said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

I live in Windsor. The Lib Dems? Really? Don't look like they stand an earthly to me.

At one point in the Tory dog-days (early Blair) they actually turned Theresa May's neighbouring seat of Maidenhead into a marginal. Windsor is a goner if there is a by-election. OGH is surely right on this.

kinabalu

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

Glad to hear that. Have heard enough stories of people being more affected by the booster than the original vaccines to be a little concerned. Did you get the flu jab at the same time too?

Yep. Left arm Pfizer, right arm flu. I'm ironman now.

HYUFD

Stark_Dawning said:

MikeSmithson said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

By my measures Windsor looks a cert. 54% Remain - 36% grads - LDs in clear second - close to W London where many activists are based.

You fail to understand the mindset of the average Windsor resident - for us having a castle and a Tory MP are the ultimate in must-have status symbols.

Windsor had a Liberal MP in 1865-1874 and elected Whig MPs from 1695-1708, 1774-1780, 1820-1841, 1847-1852 and in 1855.

It has not always been Tory even if it has never been Labour

kinabalu

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

You find it unbelievable that he would make such a comment and authorize such a phone call?

rpjs

kinabalu said:

MrEd said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

I’m finding it hard to imagine any scenario at the moment where the Democrats win in Nov 24. Yes, it’s three years away and lots can happen but many of the issues causing disruption seem to be long, not short, term and there is an obvious split developing between progressives and non-progressives when it comes to the agenda. Harris looks to be toast (and there is no reason to think she can pull things back), Biden has obvious health issues and Pelosi is set to retire. Anyone who thinks Pete B will be the saviour is off their rocker - the parental cafe story alone will sink his chances as the idea a US President can take time off will go down like a lead balloon with the swing voters they need.

The Republicans are the slight betting favourites at 1.96. Agree they should be shorter. The big problem they have imo is Donald Trump. They need to find a way for him not to be the candidate. I think they will but I admit that's intuition and little else. I have no clue what the actual path looks like from here to a not Donald Trump getting the ticket for WH24. You will have more insight on this, I'd have thought. I also don't think Biden will be the Dem candidate. So, for me, WH24 is wide open, both as to which party wins and who the person is.

If the GOP take the House and Senate next year, then with the state legislatures they control, it doesn't matter if Trump is their candidate in '24 or not. Whoever it is, they will claim election fraud, seat whichever spurious slate of electors the GOP in swing states cares to present and voila the coup will be complete.

Pulpstar

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

Another 387k booster doses yesterday. This definitely needs added to the successes.

Yes, at Xmas - 3 weeks we'll be at 20m booster doses done, at Xmas - 1 week (which is probably how long it actually takes to get significantly better protection) we'll be at 25-27m booster doses done and probably anyone in groups 1-910 who want one will have been able to get one.

Grp 10 (40 - 49) coming soon

YBarddCwsc

MikeSmithson said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

On topic.
Can't see other than two Tory holds. Can see them being close, but if CCHQ had had to choose two to have right now, these would be on the shortlist for sure.

I'm sure I said exactly that a while ago.

Windsor (when it occurs) will be a different matter as there the Lib Dems do stand a decent chance.

By my measures Windsor looks a cert. 54% Remain - 36% grads - LDs in clear second - close to W London where many activists are based.

" .... close to W London where many activists are based. "

Yes, I think that is true

For example, Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru seems to be headquartered in West London as well

Carnyx

Bit ofd light relief for Friday afternoon - how does the crab cross the road? (On Christmas Island, where the land crabs migrate to and from the sea.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2021/nov/18/beaujolais-nouveau-and-migrating-crabs-thursdays-best-photos#img-9

MaxPB

kinabalu said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

You find it unbelievable that he would make such a comment and authorize such a phone call?

I find the coincidence that when the PM is having a tough time of it elsewhere this newspaper suddenly gets a legal threat for something no one really cared about in the first place tough to believe. They're a joke and you want to believe them. I have no love for the PM, in fact I think I probably loathe him more than you do, this just strikes me as extremely unlikely.

kinabalu

rpjs said:

kinabalu said:

MrEd said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Joe Biden hands over to Kamala Harris (temporarily).

And he'll be handing over to Donald Trump in Jan 2025. Permanently.

I’m finding it hard to imagine any scenario at the moment where the Democrats win in Nov 24. Yes, it’s three years away and lots can happen but many of the issues causing disruption seem to be long, not short, term and there is an obvious split developing between progressives and non-progressives when it comes to the agenda. Harris looks to be toast (and there is no reason to think she can pull things back), Biden has obvious health issues and Pelosi is set to retire. Anyone who thinks Pete B will be the saviour is off their rocker - the parental cafe story alone will sink his chances as the idea a US President can take time off will go down like a lead balloon with the swing voters they need.

The Republicans are the slight betting favourites at 1.96. Agree they should be shorter. The big problem they have imo is Donald Trump. They need to find a way for him not to be the candidate. I think they will but I admit that's intuition and little else. I have no clue what the actual path looks like from here to a not Donald Trump getting the ticket for WH24. You will have more insight on this, I'd have thought. I also don't think Biden will be the Dem candidate. So, for me, WH24 is wide open, both as to which party wins and who the person is.

If the GOP take the House and Senate next year, then with the state legislatures they control, it doesn't matter if Trump is their candidate in '24 or not. Whoever it is, they will claim election fraud, seat whichever spurious slate of electors the GOP in swing states cares to present and voila the coup will be complete.

Yep, that's frighteningly plausible, but I'm still not quite ready to believe it.

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

Another 387k booster doses yesterday. This definitely needs added to the successes.

Yes, at Xmas - 3 weeks we'll be at 20m booster doses done, at Xmas - 1 week (which is probably how long it actually takes to get significantly better protection) we'll be at 25-27m booster doses done and probably anyone in groups 1-910 who want one will have been able to get one.

Grp 10 (40 - 49) coming soon

Hopefully 30-39 not long after, I expect we'll get the call up in January.

NickPalmer

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

Glad to hear that. Have heard enough stories of people being more affected by the booster than the original vaccines to be a little concerned. Did you get the flu jab at the same time too?

I had both at once, one in each arm. Pfizer produced very slight soreness which wore off in a couple of days. Flu jab had no discernible side-effect at all.

Not discounting incidents of side-effects, but allow for reporting bias - people generally don't bother to mention non-events.

kinabalu

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

The damage for Boris Johnson is that whether he said it or not enough people can imagine him saying it.

In Boris Johnson’s defence his utter fidelity to his previous wives will help him rebut the vile smear.

When John Major came down on that Private Eye wannabe like a tonne of bricks, he was able to because the story about him was untrue.

So Boris either goes nuclear (which may be tricky) or ignores the story as a non-story in a non-paper.

The stupid thing is to give the damn thing legs. Which he's done.

And even if the report is misleading-to-inaccurate, well that's karma...

It's the sort of tacky tale that ought to be not credible but sadly is. Actually I'd hope it's not true.

turbotubbs

NickPalmer said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

Glad to hear that. Have heard enough stories of people being more affected by the booster than the original vaccines to be a little concerned. Did you get the flu jab at the same time too?

I had both at once, one in each arm. Pfizer produced very slight soreness which wore off in a couple of days. Flu jab had no discernible side-effect at all.

Not discounting incidents of side-effects, but allow for reporting bias - people generally don't bother to mention non-events.

Yep - I had a very strong reaction to my Pfizer booster after two non-events with AZ. Flu shot on wednesday gave no effects at all, unless you count the pain of removing the pointless plaster in the shower the next morning...

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I missed this earlier from the New European

Incredible stuff. Banana Republic both in intent and execution.

If you believe it. The whole scenario is laughable and a desperate attempt by a dead newspaper to seem relevant.

The damage for Boris Johnson is that whether he said it or not enough people can imagine him saying it.

In Boris Johnson’s defence his utter fidelity to his previous wives will help him rebut the vile smear.

A few years ago there was a geology lead in Aberdeen who used to get heavily drunk and phone up contractors at 3am to berate them about some slight or failing they were guilty of in his eyes. By day he was one of the nicest chaps going. Dead now sadly, certainly due to the drink. But when I see things like this report on the latest No 10 shenanigans I wonder if Johnson has taken to late night drinking sessions and then loses it at 3am?

Edit: Or maybe because he can't hold his drink it is at 10.30am as mentioned in the posting.

Northern_Al

Carnyx said:

Bit ofd light relief for Friday afternoon - how does the crab cross the road? (On Christmas Island, where the land crabs migrate to and from the sea.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2021/nov/18/beaujolais-nouveau-and-migrating-crabs-thursdays-best-photos#img-9

In the same Friday afternoon spirit, I've just been told a joke that I'd not heard before, but may be as old as the hills. Clean, as well.

Bloke goes into local baker to buy a cake. All the cakes are 50p, except one, which is £1.
Bloke asks "Why is that cake twice as expensive as the others?"
Baker replies "Ah well, that's Madeira cake".

SandyRentool

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

Glad to hear that. Have heard enough stories of people being more affected by the booster than the original vaccines to be a little concerned. Did you get the flu jab at the same time too?

Yep. Left arm Pfizer, right arm flu. I'm ironman now.

The Beach Boys had a song about this...

Well, we're going to Surf City 'coz it's two to one
Yeah, we're going to Surf City, wanna have some fun
Well, we're going to Surf City 'coz it's two to one
Yeah, we're going to Surf City, wanna have some fun

Two jabs for every boy

Carnyx

SandyRentool said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

Glad to hear that. Have heard enough stories of people being more affected by the booster than the original vaccines to be a little concerned. Did you get the flu jab at the same time too?

Yep. Left arm Pfizer, right arm flu. I'm ironman now.

The Beach Boys had a song about this...

Well, we're going to Surf City 'coz it's two to one
Yeah, we're going to Surf City, wanna have some fun
Well, we're going to Surf City 'coz it's two to one
Yeah, we're going to Surf City, wanna have some fun

Two jabs for every boy

That would certainly apply to the belowmentioned crabs too.

Carnyx

turbotubbs said:

NickPalmer said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

Glad to hear that. Have heard enough stories of people being more affected by the booster than the original vaccines to be a little concerned. Did you get the flu jab at the same time too?

I had both at once, one in each arm. Pfizer produced very slight soreness which wore off in a couple of days. Flu jab had no discernible side-effect at all.

Not discounting incidents of side-effects, but allow for reporting bias - people generally don't bother to mention non-events.

Yep - I had a very strong reaction to my Pfizer booster after two non-events with AZ. Flu shot on wednesday gave no effects at all, unless you count the pain of removing the pointless plaster in the shower the next morning...

You got a plaster?! Pampered southerner.

BlancheLivermore

More Friday afternoon LOLs (I missed it on the radio earlier)

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/11/listen-keir-starmer-refuses-five-times-to-say-whether-jeremy-corbyn-would-have-been-a-better-prime-minister-than-boris-johnson

turbotubbs

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

NickPalmer said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Just had booster in Dundee. No criticism of our NHS but they have got the army in today to help. I have to say it is going like a fair, at least twice as fast as my earlier vaccinations.
Very solid and steady queues moving quickly. Really get the feeling we are on top of this.

Well done. Beat you by a day. No side effects at all btw (for those who were worried about me).

Glad to hear that. Have heard enough stories of people being more affected by the booster than the original vaccines to be a little concerned. Did you get the flu jab at the same time too?

I had both at once, one in each arm. Pfizer produced very slight soreness which wore off in a couple of days. Flu jab had no discernible side-effect at all.

Not discounting incidents of side-effects, but allow for reporting bias - people generally don't bother to mention non-events.

Yep - I had a very strong reaction to my Pfizer booster after two non-events with AZ. Flu shot on wednesday gave no effects at all, unless you count the pain of removing the pointless plaster in the shower the next morning...

You got a plaster?! Pampered southerner.

Not by choice. He slapped it as he removed the needle. I should sue...