There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
Erm, didn't Harold Macmillan resign because he thought, wrongly, that he was terminally ill?
Also, Orpington did not really kick off the chain of events that led to Labour's 1964 victory. 1963 had featured a series of spy scandals. Douglas-Home was a lousy campaigner.
There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
Your welcome. We are both entitled to our views. You are by far not alone in thinking my bet on this one is very wrong. More than happy to discuss with you further, my wise man. 👩🎓 Because no, you didn’t imply leave voters are sleazy, nor did I say you did. Quite clearly the opposite. You did though say it’s 60% leave as this will help the Conservatives did you not? I countered with why? In fact, in heartfelt opposition to the EU gravy train it may actually be part of the leaver DNA to dislike the revelations in coming weeks of party in administration giving tax payers money to friends, donors and cronies - I could be completely wrong, but that 60% leave demographic might be leavers thinking isn’t this the sort of thing what we left behind when leaving EU, so actually counts against the Conservatives not for them?
You look into the past for comparative examples, that are very long time ago now, 1962 there actually was an establishment to rail against, and perhaps other reasons for MaMillians departure too, whilst more recently results like Bradford are just brushed off as mid term blips these days?
Hope that helps clear things up.
PS it’s my first political bet on a hunch and I am enjoying it
Labour were only 2,000 votes from winning North Shropshire in 1997.
Yes but with the exception of Canterbury (because it is now full of students completely unlike North Shropshire which is full of sheep) if the Tories still won a seat even in 1997 and 2001 they will never lose it, especially if the seat also voted Leave like North Shropshire did
I was wondering about that, and one seat the Tories did win in 1997 and 2001 they have since lost is Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
In fairness they do look likely to get it back, though Farron has done a pretty good job of holding on all things considered.
There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
Erm, didn't Harold Macmillan resign because he thought, wrongly, that he was terminally ill?
Also, Orpington did not really kick off the chain of events that led to Labour's 1964 victory. 1963 had featured a series of spy scandals. Douglas-Home was a lousy campaigner.
Yet Wilson only managed a majority of just 4 against Home in 1964 and Home won a majority of seats in England
The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
Yup. It'll be interesting to see if and when it changes its line on corruption, and if then Dacre gets the Ofcom job. Verity seems very much in the mould of his old mentor and boss.
Today was the first positive leader for Boris for a very long time
60,000 cases in Germany today. By far their worst ever
They must be close to an actual Lockdown
Cases rising in France too. It seems the waves will keep coming. I expect at the end all developed countries will show a very similar overall experience, regardless of the different approaches taken.
Doubt the Lib Dems will pull it off but if you're a leave voting first time 2019 Tory there's a certain logic to giving the government a good old kick by staying at home/voting for someone else knowing a Tory loss would make the govt. more attuned to your wants, and safe in the knowledge that Brexit is now pretty much irreversible for at least a decade and you can vote Tory if you're really anti the formerly Remain parties at the next GE. We may see the 'leave' vote be less predictive than in Lab/Tory fights or national and local election.
The Parliamentary Tory party is over the next 1-2 elections going to experience what I call Lib Dem entryism. Generally sensible folk who can’t stand Labour but can’t face the idea of wasting their careers standing and losing in seats for the tainted Lib Dem brand, or even if they win, being a largely forgotten voice amid the 650.
Nose holding will take place while Boris is leader and the candidates will keep their mouths shut. But sure as sure can be, after he leaves the stage they will fall behind one or two obvious big hitters and attempt the (re) takeover of the Party. A reverse Cummings if you will. Whether this project succeeds will largely depend on whether they are sensible enough to accept Brexit or not. I suspect not in most cases.
The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
What are you basing either of those claims on?
Boris bravely faces every u-turn when he meets one?
Labour were only 2,000 votes from winning North Shropshire in 1997.
Yes but with the exception of Canterbury (because it is now full of students completely unlike North Shropshire which is full of sheep) if the Tories still won a seat even in 1997 and 2001 they will never lose it, especially if the seat also voted Leave like North Shropshire did
I was wondering about that, and one seat the Tories did win in 1997 and 2001 they have since lost is Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
In fairness they do look likely to get it back, though Farron has done a pretty good job of holding on all things considered.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale and Solihull are the only other exceptions (apart from Canterbury) but LD gains not Labour gains in 2005 and in the case of Solihull won back in 2015. Tim Collins the former Tory MP until he lost it in 2005 I know a bit as he lives in the Epping area but Farron was an exceptional local campaigner.
Looking at the list of parliamentary seats, someone persuade the BCE to give all the new ones names like Thanet North/South not North/South Thanet. So much more awkward to find them with a couple dozen Souths/Norths.
The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
What are you basing either of those claims on?
Boris bravely faces every u-turn when he meets one?
When danger reared its ugly head He bravely turned his tail and fled
60,000 cases in Germany today. By far their worst ever
They must be close to an actual Lockdown
Cases rising in France too. It seems the waves will keep coming. I expect at the end all developed countries will show a very similar overall experience, regardless of the different approaches taken.
That's what Anders Tegnell said at the outset early last year.
Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.
Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
Just looked the Pollock OG up on YouTube. Utterly amazing. Never seen it before
The context of the Pollock own goal is what makes it utterly magnificent.
It came during the penultimate game of the season against relegation rivals QPR, with a win ensuring City would keep their fate in their own hands going into the final day at Stoke.
A tense encounter had been lit up by Georgi Kinkladze – the ying to Pollock’s yang – as he scored a sublime free-kick on a stage absolutely not deserving of the Georgian’s talents.
But that opener was cancelled out by former City striker Mike Sheron, ensuring a tentative crowd and group of players.
Then it happened.
Veteran QPR full-back David Bardsley, who was born in Manchester, chipped an aimless ball towards the box, which the intelligent Pollock easily read.
The midfielder intercepted the pass before it could reach a red-and-black hooped striker. It was all incredibly calm by Pollock in a game of such importance.
Then, having made the ground to get the ball, the former Middlesbrough man looped the ball high in the air over the QPR striker and covering defender. In a game of high intensity, it was good to see someone keep a cool head in such pressurised circumstances.
All he had to do now was head the ball back to his goalkeeper, to the customary applause from the stands.
Except Pollock, now in open space in his own area, was so focused on the dropping ball that he had not noticed Martyn Margetson had advanced off his goal-line to the edge of his six-yard box.
Gravity did what was natural as the ball came back to earth, but Pollock’s science was an untried experiment of trying to send a looping header back to a man that was not where he thought he was. Thus completing the best worst own goal of all time.
he Maine Road crowd fell silent and the QPR forwards ran off celebrating their own embarrassment, knowing their opponent had handed them the greatest survival boost of them all.
Pollock turned, head bowed, to walk slowly back to the centre circle in full knowledge of what he had just done to the club he had only joined one month previously.
Summing up this period of City’s history has always been tough for many. But luckily Pollock took it into his own hands and without writing a word embodied the late 90s at Maine Road for all future generations to see in just a few seconds of madness, which like most of what happened to the club during those years, no one could have foreseen, however vivid their imagination.
Lee Bradbury, a man synonymous with City’s failings, would equalise in the game to earn his side a point, giving them a chance of staying up on the final day when they faced Stoke, but they needed other results to go their way.
Naturally, City were victorious at the Britannia (as it was then), beating their fellow relegation victims 5-2, but they were relegated anyway as QPR survived.
Talking of QPR.........An old friend took me back stage to the Etihad where he now works and in the room with their cups and memorabilia was a glass case with a football in it. It was the ball that Aguerro scored his famous 93rd minute goal winning their fisrt ever Premiership title beating Man Utd by a single point.........
In the excitement of the final whistle Joe Hart kicked the ball into the stands and from there it disappeared.............
Sometime later the club realised it's historic significance and decided they had to get it back. To this end they got all the footage of the game and after painstaking research managed to locate the seat of the person who had taken the ball. Being a season ticket holder they were able to locate his address and sent someone round to ask if he would mind giving them the ball back......
He said he wouldn't. Nothing they offered would make him change his mind. Fearing a PR disaster threats of police were out of the question. Then someone had the bright idea to find out his favourite player..........
So Joe Hart was sent round with a big bunch of flowers and tickets for him and his family to spend a week-end in London to watch the charity shield as a guest of the club........
Of all the things I saw at the Etihad that day that very ordinary football was much the most interesting. What it's worth now I can only imagine.
The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
Hiding in a fridge, or from scrutiny for much of his life, doesn't seem particularly brave, to me. Johnson strikes me the as the kind of person who's only brave when he has twenty supporters shouting and surrounding behind. Otherwise he seems to absolutely vanish.
Yes, the very definition of a cowardly bully. Remember how he refused debates or the Neill interview?
A brave person is not someone without fear, that is just recklessness, but rather someone who recognises danger and acts despite fear.
I suspect Starmer doesn't fear public speaking etc, he did after all become a Barrister then a leader of the party, but if he does, yet carries on then surely that is bravery?
Even Sweden introducing them for concerts and indoor events.
Though to be honest while double vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalisation and death for you, lateral flow tests are better to stop you spreading Covid to others
The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
Hiding in a fridge, or from scrutiny for much of his life, doesn't seem particularly brave, to me. Johnson strikes me the as the kind of person who's only brave when he has twenty supporters shouting and surrounding behind. Otherwise he seems to absolutely vanish.
Yes, the very definition of a cowardly bully. Remember how he refused debates or the Neill interview?
A brave person is not someone without fear, that is just recklessness, but rather someone who recognises danger and acts despite fear.
I suspect Starmer doesn't fear public speaking etc, he did after all become a Barrister then a leader of the party, but if he does, yet carries on then surely that is bravery?
That doesn’t make him a coward. The fact is you have a lot more to lose as an incumbent in a debate.
The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
Hiding in a fridge, or from scrutiny for much of his life, doesn't seem particularly brave, to me. Johnson strikes me the as the kind of person who's only brave when he has twenty supporters shouting and surrounding behind. Otherwise he seems to absolutely vanish.
Yes, the very definition of a cowardly bully. Remember how he refused debates or the Neill interview?
A brave person is not someone without fear, that is just recklessness, but rather someone who recognises danger and acts despite fear.
I suspect Starmer doesn't fear public speaking etc, he did after all become a Barrister then a leader of the party, but if he does, yet carries on then surely that is bravery?
After watching Johnson being taken apart by Bryant in his committee appearance today reminded me of a schoolboy being forced to be contrite after being found out for lying and cheating. Not a good look for a PM. When he doesn't have his baying mob or gang behind him as at PMQs, marks him out as a cowardly bully in my book.
Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.
Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
Just looked the Pollock OG up on YouTube. Utterly amazing. Never seen it before
The context of the Pollock own goal is what makes it utterly magnificent.
It came during the penultimate game of the season against relegation rivals QPR, with a win ensuring City would keep their fate in their own hands going into the final day at Stoke.
A tense encounter had been lit up by Georgi Kinkladze – the ying to Pollock’s yang – as he scored a sublime free-kick on a stage absolutely not deserving of the Georgian’s talents.
But that opener was cancelled out by former City striker Mike Sheron, ensuring a tentative crowd and group of players.
Then it happened.
Veteran QPR full-back David Bardsley, who was born in Manchester, chipped an aimless ball towards the box, which the intelligent Pollock easily read.
The midfielder intercepted the pass before it could reach a red-and-black hooped striker. It was all incredibly calm by Pollock in a game of such importance.
Then, having made the ground to get the ball, the former Middlesbrough man looped the ball high in the air over the QPR striker and covering defender. In a game of high intensity, it was good to see someone keep a cool head in such pressurised circumstances.
All he had to do now was head the ball back to his goalkeeper, to the customary applause from the stands.
Except Pollock, now in open space in his own area, was so focused on the dropping ball that he had not noticed Martyn Margetson had advanced off his goal-line to the edge of his six-yard box.
Gravity did what was natural as the ball came back to earth, but Pollock’s science was an untried experiment of trying to send a looping header back to a man that was not where he thought he was. Thus completing the best worst own goal of all time.
he Maine Road crowd fell silent and the QPR forwards ran off celebrating their own embarrassment, knowing their opponent had handed them the greatest survival boost of them all.
Pollock turned, head bowed, to walk slowly back to the centre circle in full knowledge of what he had just done to the club he had only joined one month previously.
Summing up this period of City’s history has always been tough for many. But luckily Pollock took it into his own hands and without writing a word embodied the late 90s at Maine Road for all future generations to see in just a few seconds of madness, which like most of what happened to the club during those years, no one could have foreseen, however vivid their imagination.
Lee Bradbury, a man synonymous with City’s failings, would equalise in the game to earn his side a point, giving them a chance of staying up on the final day when they faced Stoke, but they needed other results to go their way.
Naturally, City were victorious at the Britannia (as it was then), beating their fellow relegation victims 5-2, but they were relegated anyway as QPR survived.
Talking of QPR.........An old friend took me back stage to the Etihad where he now works and in the room with their cups and memorabilia was a glass case with a football in it. It was the ball that Aguerro scored his famous 93rd minute goal winning their fisrt ever Premiership title beating Man Utd by a single point.........
In the excitement of the final whistle Joe Hart kicked the ball into the stands and from there it disappeared.............
Sometime later the club realised it's historic significance and decided they had to get it back. To this end they got all the footage of the game and after painstaking research managed to locate the seat of the person who had taken the ball. Being a season ticket holder they were able to locate his address and sent someone round to ask if he would mind giving them the ball back......
He said he wouldn't. Nothing they offered would make him change his mind. Fearing a PR disaster threats of police were out of the question. Then someone had the bright idea to find out his favourite player..........
So Joe Hart was sent round with a big bunch of flowers and tickets for him and his family to spend a week-end in London to watch the charity shield as a guest of the club........
Of all the things I saw at the Etihad that day that very ordinary football was much the most interesting. What it's worth now I can only imagine.
Really interesting, but inadvertently triggered me. It was the first ever premiership trophy, but city had of course won the first division title before. I simply cannot abide the differentiation between old first division and the premiership era. One became the other with the same sides.
The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
Hiding in a fridge, or from scrutiny for much of his life, doesn't seem particularly brave, to me. Johnson strikes me the as the kind of person who's only brave when he has twenty supporters shouting and surrounding behind. Otherwise he seems to absolutely vanish.
Yes, the very definition of a cowardly bully. Remember how he refused debates or the Neill interview?
A brave person is not someone without fear, that is just recklessness, but rather someone who recognises danger and acts despite fear.
I suspect Starmer doesn't fear public speaking etc, he did after all become a Barrister then a leader of the party, but if he does, yet carries on then surely that is bravery?
That doesn’t make him a coward. The fact is you have a lot more to lose as an incumbent in a debate.
No, but it is part of a pattern of behaviour. Hiding in the fridge, flying out of the country when the 3rd runway vote happened, not attending the emergency debate after Paterson etc etc.
The Guardian is now saying fewer than 10 MPs will be negatively affected by Johnson's wizard wheeze. A win, win for the big guy?
If so, and the heat dies down a bit, it will have been a very successful wheeze. 10 particularly egregious MPs upset is a price he can bear with that majority.
Plus he can present to the rest that he's saved them. From a problem he caused.
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Yes. I have read so many posts - most of them from HYUFD - that as this is a leave seat it will stay Tory, as if voting one way 5 years ago means you will always vote that way.
So lets talk Brexit. A vote to remove snouts from the trough. Which is what todays Corrupt Tory party is all about and the previous member for this seat in particular.
The corrupt party couldn't even find a local candidate and had to delete whole social media accounts after the chap said he had no idea where the seat is. So sneering ignorance from the corrupt party to add to their issues.
So its a by-election. Where people send messages to government. In their case do the support corruption or don't they? Voting for Brexit doesn't mean they want corruption no matter how many times the Essicks Massiv claims they do.
Yes. All that.
It’s by election time, is any seat that safe especially when there is a big day glow elephant in the room message to send? Eye watering sums of tax payers money given to friends donors and lobbyists - is this the take back control and better democracy promised?
Sometimes to be a true friend you have to give them an honest message.
The by election loss won’t be anti Conservative, it will be friends sending honest message to friends.
The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
Hiding in a fridge, or from scrutiny for much of his life, doesn't seem particularly brave, to me. Johnson strikes me the as the kind of person who's only brave when he has twenty supporters shouting and surrounding behind. Otherwise he seems to absolutely vanish.
Yes, the very definition of a cowardly bully. Remember how he refused debates or the Neill interview?
A brave person is not someone without fear, that is just recklessness, but rather someone who recognises danger and acts despite fear.
I suspect Starmer doesn't fear public speaking etc, he did after all become a Barrister then a leader of the party, but if he does, yet carries on then surely that is bravery?
That doesn’t make him a coward. The fact is you have a lot more to lose as an incumbent in a debate.
No, but it is part of a pattern of behaviour. Hiding in the fridge, flying out of the country when the 3rd runway vote happened, not attending the emergency debate after Paterson etc etc.
How can it be part of a pattern of behaviour if it has nothing to do with it? It was a political decision, one taken by many in the past.
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
Labour were only 2,000 votes from winning North Shropshire in 1997.
Yes but with the exception of Canterbury (because it is now full of students completely unlike North Shropshire which is full of sheep) if the Tories still won a seat even in 1997 and 2001 they will never lose it, especially if the seat also voted Leave like North Shropshire did
I was wondering about that, and one seat the Tories did win in 1997 and 2001 they have since lost is Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
In fairness they do look likely to get it back, though Farron has done a pretty good job of holding on all things considered.
They'll have difficulty winning it back, as it won't exist post July '23!
Everyone: Can the name Johnson be any more besmirched this week?
Sis: Hold my beer.
Were it not for the fact that some of the clan have shown willing to embarrass Boris, you'd almost suspect the whole lot of them are getting in the news just to confuse the google results for Johnson. Look out for Jo to do a pratfall in the Lords.
When it comes to the reputation of the Government, almost 6 in 10 (59%) people do not believe the government upholds the Nolan principle of integrity, and 62% do not believe it upholds the principle of honesty.
Of potentially concern for Downing Street is the finding that the verdict of Conservative 2019 voters on standards is also poor. Around half (49%) of Conservative 2019 voters do not believe that the current government upholds values of honesty and integrity. A minority (35% and 32% respectively) believed that they do, with the balance saying don’t know.
As questions about political integrity continue to be a focus in Westminster, the polling shows the Government’s reputation for standards in public life is poor among groups considered a key part of the Conservatives’ base:
Two-thirds of pensioners (66%) think the Government does not uphold the principle of integrity.
More than half (56%) of Leave voters think the Government does not uphold integrity.
Labour were only 2,000 votes from winning North Shropshire in 1997.
Yes but with the exception of Canterbury (because it is now full of students completely unlike North Shropshire which is full of sheep) if the Tories still won a seat even in 1997 and 2001 they will never lose it, especially if the seat also voted Leave like North Shropshire did
I was wondering about that, and one seat the Tories did win in 1997 and 2001 they have since lost is Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
In fairness they do look likely to get it back, though Farron has done a pretty good job of holding on all things considered.
They'll have difficulty winning it back, as it won't exist post July '23!
I'll grant that presents a challenge, but where there's a will there's a way. June 23 election it is.
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
Seems level pegging is becoming the norm at present apart from the one 6 point lead
Everyone: Can the name Johnson be any more besmirched this week?
Sis: Hold my beer.
Were it not for the fact that some of the clan have shown willing to embarrass Boris, you'd almost suspect the whole lot of them are getting in the news just to confuse the google results for Johnson. Look out for Jo to do a pratfall in the Lords.
Disregarding the fact that her writing style is as awful as her brother's, I'm finding it difficult to picture how the naughty eyed glamazon is both astride a table and has a boot resting on sack of jizz's thigh. Sounds extremely uncomfortable at the very least.
When it comes to the reputation of the Government, almost 6 in 10 (59%) people do not believe the government upholds the Nolan principle of integrity, and 62% do not believe it upholds the principle of honesty.
Of potentially concern for Downing Street is the finding that the verdict of Conservative 2019 voters on standards is also poor. Around half (49%) of Conservative 2019 voters do not believe that the current government upholds values of honesty and integrity. A minority (35% and 32% respectively) believed that they do, with the balance saying don’t know.
As questions about political integrity continue to be a focus in Westminster, the polling shows the Government’s reputation for standards in public life is poor among groups considered a key part of the Conservatives’ base:
Two-thirds of pensioners (66%) think the Government does not uphold the principle of integrity.
More than half (56%) of Leave voters think the Government does not uphold integrity.
You do have to ask the question why are labour not streets ahead in the polling
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Everyone: Can the name Johnson be any more besmirched this week?
Sis: Hold my beer.
Were it not for the fact that some of the clan have shown willing to embarrass Boris, you'd almost suspect the whole lot of them are getting in the news just to confuse the google results for Johnson. Look out for Jo to do a pratfall in the Lords.
Disregarding the fact that her writing style is as awful as her brother's, I'm finding it difficult to picture how the naughty eyed glamazon is both astride a table and has a boot resting on sack of jizz's thigh. Sounds extremely uncomfortable at the very least.
The PM has a long history of putting folk in difficult positions.
There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
No one is all coward or all brave all the time. On that occasion it would have been easy to delay again, and to his credit he did not, and that the numbers have afaik been better than the prediction mid point, shows it was the right call. But that need not speak to his general pattern of behaviour particularly in respect of political calculation.
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 301 seats and Labour 262 and LDs 12 on those numbers.
So Starmer could form a minority government with SNP support but the Tories would still be comfortably largest party
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Fair question, just about, but the best evidence is that he simply doesn't recognise the existence of modern science. He must know that covid is a thing, having nearly died of it, but he has behaved both before and afterwards as if contagion were a thing that only happened to the lower classes, what with hand shaking, not wearing masks, etc. So I don't think you can see his decision as courageous, he just has no idea what the stakes or odds are.
Peter Hitchens is a very happy man tonight - he had been calling Justin Welby out on the George Bell controversy for years, and now Welby has withdrawn his words and apologised
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Another pro-Boris post comes out of the woodwork - CCHQ a little rattled tonight, perhaps?
As to the "point", the UK is ahead of the vaccination curve and will naturally derive the benefits of booster vaccinations first - other countries are yet to get booster programmes and the vaccination of younger adults and children completed so it's little surprise they are seeing lots of cases.
The issue, as it was when we were reporting forty to fifty thousand cases per day is how this is translating to deaths and hospitalisations and it's the latter which drives whether restrictions are required. The second aspect is whether those going into hospital are primarily the unvaccinated.
Add to that the ICU capacities of other countries and it's impossible to derive too much from the data and notions of "careering into a Covid crisis" are somewhat overstated.
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 301 seats and Labour 262 and LDs 12 on those numbers.
So Starmer could form a minority government with SNP support but the Tories would still be comfortably largest party
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 301 seats and Labour 262 and LDs 12 on those numbers.
So Starmer could form a minority government with SNP support but the Tories would still be comfortably largest party
That was on the new boundaries, on the current boundaries the Tories would still have most seats on 286 but Labour on 271 and the LDs on 15 combined would be level with the Tories and could form a government with support from the Alliance and Greens without the need for the Nationalists as they would need on the new boundaries.
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Fair question, just about, but the best evidence is that he simply doesn't recognise the existence of modern science. He must know that covid is a thing, having nearly died of it, but he has behaved both before and afterwards as if contagion were a thing that only happened to the lower classes, what with hand shaking, not wearing masks, etc. So I don't think you can see his decision as courageous, he just has no idea what the stakes or odds are.
Which tom are you a fan of?
With respect, that's a typical anti Boris type response i.e. even when he probably gets it right it's just pure luck. As for tom, I'd prefer to keep that to myself.
Peter Hitchens is a very happy man tonight - he had been calling Justin Welby out on the George Bell controversy for years, and now Welby has withdrawn his words and apologised
Good. Welby is a bleating ninny too stupid to be ordained, never mind archepiscopated or whatever the term is. If they make a film of his life it'll be called An Etonian Too Far.
Yup. It'll be interesting to see if and when it changes its line on corruption, and if then Dacre gets the Ofcom job. Verity seems very much in the mould of his old mentor and boss.
Today was the first positive leader for Boris for a very long time
1780 - "the influence of the crown has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished"
2021 - the influence of the corrupt has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished
If this "fourth wave" does not hit England then one has to say that the CMO and Javid and Johnson got this right with the summer exit wave policy.
We will know in, what, five or six weeks?
By my reckoning we're already four months into our fourth wave in the UK.
Interesting that there is a growing consensus now that we were right to unlock in the summer. Even on PB - which has more than its fair share of covid hawks - most people seem to have come over to that view.
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Fair question, just about, but the best evidence is that he simply doesn't recognise the existence of modern science. He must know that covid is a thing, having nearly died of it, but he has behaved both before and afterwards as if contagion were a thing that only happened to the lower classes, what with hand shaking, not wearing masks, etc. So I don't think you can see his decision as courageous, he just has no idea what the stakes or odds are.
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Another pro-Boris post comes out of the woodwork - CCHQ a little rattled tonight, perhaps?
As to the "point", the UK is ahead of the vaccination curve and will naturally derive the benefits of booster vaccinations first - other countries are yet to get booster programmes and the vaccination of younger adults and children completed so it's little surprise they are seeing lots of cases.
The issue, as it was when we were reporting forty to fifty thousand cases per day is how this is translating to deaths and hospitalisations and it's the latter which drives whether restrictions are required. The second aspect is whether those going into hospital are primarily the unvaccinated.
Add to that the ICU capacities of other countries and it's impossible to derive too much from the data and notions of "careering into a Covid crisis" are somewhat overstated.
No doubt those under "house arrest" in Austria would share your sense of overstatement about a Covid crisis.
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 301 seats and Labour 262 and LDs 12 on those numbers.
So Starmer could form a minority government with SNP support but the Tories would still be comfortably largest party
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Fair question, just about, but the best evidence is that he simply doesn't recognise the existence of modern science. He must know that covid is a thing, having nearly died of it, but he has behaved both before and afterwards as if contagion were a thing that only happened to the lower classes, what with hand shaking, not wearing masks, etc.
Hmm, I'm not sure that really tracks. Whatever faults in our covid response he has certainly taken it seriously, as compared to the genuinely reckless world leaders, and given that I'm not convinced a level of personal carelessness on his part can be extrapolated as far as you take it. I just don't see how he approves all the measures that have been taken if he 'doesn't recognise the existence of modern science'.
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Another pro-Boris post comes out of the woodwork - CCHQ a little rattled tonight, perhaps?
As to the "point", the UK is ahead of the vaccination curve and will naturally derive the benefits of booster vaccinations first - other countries are yet to get booster programmes and the vaccination of younger adults and children completed so it's little surprise they are seeing lots of cases.
The issue, as it was when we were reporting forty to fifty thousand cases per day is how this is translating to deaths and hospitalisations and it's the latter which drives whether restrictions are required. The second aspect is whether those going into hospital are primarily the unvaccinated.
Add to that the ICU capacities of other countries and it's impossible to derive too much from the data and notions of "careering into a Covid crisis" are somewhat overstated.
No doubt those under "house arrest" in Austria would share your sense of overstatement about a Covid crisis.
There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
Erm, didn't Harold Macmillan resign because he thought, wrongly, that he was terminally ill?
Also, Orpington did not really kick off the chain of events that led to Labour's 1964 victory. 1963 had featured a series of spy scandals. Douglas-Home was a lousy campaigner.
Yet Wilson only managed a majority of just 4 against Home in 1964 and Home won a majority of seats in England
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 301 seats and Labour 262 and LDs 12 on those numbers.
So Starmer could form a minority government with SNP support but the Tories would still be comfortably largest party
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Fair question, just about, but the best evidence is that he simply doesn't recognise the existence of modern science. He must know that covid is a thing, having nearly died of it, but he has behaved both before and afterwards as if contagion were a thing that only happened to the lower classes, what with hand shaking, not wearing masks, etc. So I don't think you can see his decision as courageous, he just has no idea what the stakes or odds are.
Which tom are you a fan of?
With respect, that's a typical anti Boris type response i.e. even when he probably gets it right it's just pure luck. As for tom, I'd prefer to keep that to myself.
Way to go, incorporating it in your username, in that case.
And pathetic point, given that I gave two specific instances of "Boris" not understanding, or not caring, about the mechanisms by which covid is spread.
How about "wouldliketogiveborishead" if you decide to troll the site under a new identity? No offence.
There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
Erm, didn't Harold Macmillan resign because he thought, wrongly, that he was terminally ill?
Also, Orpington did not really kick off the chain of events that led to Labour's 1964 victory. 1963 had featured a series of spy scandals. Douglas-Home was a lousy campaigner.
Yet Wilson only managed a majority of just 4 against Home in 1964 and Home won a majority of seats in England
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Ok, considered.
Boris is a coward. And an idiot. A cowardly idiot.
There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
Erm, didn't Harold Macmillan resign because he thought, wrongly, that he was terminally ill?
Also, Orpington did not really kick off the chain of events that led to Labour's 1964 victory. 1963 had featured a series of spy scandals. Douglas-Home was a lousy campaigner.
Yet Wilson only managed a majority of just 4 against Home in 1964 and Home won a majority of seats in England
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Fair question, just about, but the best evidence is that he simply doesn't recognise the existence of modern science. He must know that covid is a thing, having nearly died of it, but he has behaved both before and afterwards as if contagion were a thing that only happened to the lower classes, what with hand shaking, not wearing masks, etc. So I don't think you can see his decision as courageous, he just has no idea what the stakes or odds are.
Which tom are you a fan of?
With respect, that's a typical anti Boris type response i.e. even when he probably gets it right it's just pure luck. As for tom, I'd prefer to keep that to myself.
Way to go, incorporating it in your username, in that case.
And pathetic point, given that I gave two specific instances of "Boris" not understanding, or not caring, about the mechanisms by which covid is spread.
How about "wouldliketogiveborishead" if you decide to troll the site under a new identity? No offence.
No offence taken. Your suggestion for a new identity is rather lacking in imagination and overloaded with vulgarity. No offence intended.
There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.
There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
Erm, didn't Harold Macmillan resign because he thought, wrongly, that he was terminally ill?
Also, Orpington did not really kick off the chain of events that led to Labour's 1964 victory. 1963 had featured a series of spy scandals. Douglas-Home was a lousy campaigner.
Yet Wilson only managed a majority of just 4 against Home in 1964 and Home won a majority of seats in England
Yet Wilson won a majority of seats in Yorkshire
So did Ed Miliband and Corbyn
Well then, bet you feel foolish now.
Far from it, Home got 43.4% of the vote in 1964, higher than any losing PM since universal suffrage in 1918 apart from Attlee in 1951 and higher than Blair got in 1997 and 2001 and Major got in 1992 and May got in 2017
The existence of the “will NS not vote Tory?” and “will OB&S not vote Tory?” questions does somewhat bring the statements about letting the voters decide on whether to accept their MPs activities and/or shenanigans into question.
If the party of the candidate and/or whoever is in Government in Westminster are such powerful considerations even in by-elections (when both are much diminished in importance compared to general elections), then how much power is there in relying on such a mechanism for passing judgement on an MP’s own activities? It’d have to be such as to garner staggering voter condemnation (in a safe seat, anyway) to outweigh the standard party/Government drivers.
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Fair question, just about, but the best evidence is that he simply doesn't recognise the existence of modern science. He must know that covid is a thing, having nearly died of it, but he has behaved both before and afterwards as if contagion were a thing that only happened to the lower classes, what with hand shaking, not wearing masks, etc.
Hmm, I'm not sure that really tracks. Whatever faults in our covid response he has certainly taken it seriously, as compared to the genuinely reckless world leaders, and given that I'm not convinced a level of personal carelessness on his part can be extrapolated as far as you take it. I just don't see how he approves all the measures that have been taken if he 'doesn't recognise the existence of modern science'.
OK, he's no Bolsonaro, and he probably recognises that these (lower middle class) science johnnies know a thing or two. I don't accept, though, that his decisions are made on the basis of personal conviction; they are made on the basis of what will play best with the public.
I think in a day of significant Boris embarrassing, the change from fake bonhomie with Yvette Cooper to barely being able to look Caroline Nokes in the eye or acknowledge who she was as she quizzed him on sexual harassment law for 10 minutes was just painful to watch.
N.B. as stated before, I've been happy to play along with styling him Boris, in the confident knowledge that one day he would Ratner his own brand.
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
Ok, considered.
Boris is a coward. And an idiot. A cowardly idiot.
I take it you think his decision regarding July 19 was both cowardly and idiotic?
As Europe careers headlong into a Covid crisis, those accusing Boris of being cowardly may care to consider whether his decision to lift restrictions on July 19 was cowardly, not least as at the time he was accused of a reckless experiment with the health of the nation.
That was cowardice as well. It wasn't leadership, it was hiding from the pressure from his own backbenches.
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
Full voting intention conducted along with the polling of 3236 voting intentions showed CON 37% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 5% GRE 4% REFUK 2% Others 5%
The LDs would be choosing the next government under most PR systems with these numbers.
Comments
They must be close to an actual Lockdown
Also, Orpington did not really kick off the chain of events that led to Labour's 1964 victory. 1963 had featured a series of spy scandals. Douglas-Home was a lousy campaigner.
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/local-hubs/oswestry/2021/11/16/greens-choose-their-candidate-for-the-north-shropshire-election/
You look into the past for comparative examples, that are very long time ago now, 1962 there actually was an establishment to rail against, and perhaps other reasons for MaMillians departure too, whilst more recently results like Bradford are just brushed off as mid term blips these days?
Hope that helps clear things up.
PS it’s my first political bet on a hunch and I am enjoying it
In fairness they do look likely to get it back, though Farron has done a pretty good job of holding on all things considered.
Nose holding will take place while Boris is leader and the candidates will keep their mouths shut. But sure as sure can be, after he leaves the stage they will fall behind one or two obvious big hitters and attempt the (re) takeover of the Party. A reverse Cummings if you will. Whether this project succeeds will largely depend on whether they are sensible enough to accept Brexit or not. I suspect not in most cases.
He bravely turned his tail and fled
Talking of QPR.........An old friend took me back stage to the Etihad where he now works and in the room with their cups and memorabilia was a glass case with a football in it. It was the ball that Aguerro scored his famous 93rd minute goal winning their fisrt ever Premiership title beating Man Utd by a single point.........
In the excitement of the final whistle Joe Hart kicked the ball into the stands and from there it disappeared.............
Sometime later the club realised it's historic significance and decided they had to get it back.
To this end they got all the footage of the game and after painstaking research managed to locate the seat of the person who had taken the ball. Being a season ticket holder they were able to locate his address and sent someone round to ask if he would mind giving them the ball back......
He said he wouldn't. Nothing they offered would make him change his mind. Fearing a PR disaster threats of police were out of the question. Then someone had the bright idea to find out his favourite player..........
So Joe Hart was sent round with a big bunch of flowers and tickets for him and his family to spend a week-end in London to watch the charity shield as a guest of the club........
Of all the things I saw at the Etihad that day that very ordinary football was much the most interesting. What it's worth now I can only imagine.
A brave person is not someone without fear, that is just recklessness, but rather someone who recognises danger and acts despite fear.
I suspect Starmer doesn't fear public speaking etc, he did after all become a Barrister then a leader of the party, but if he does, yet carries on then surely that is bravery?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59320515
Though to be honest while double vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalisation and death for you, lateral flow tests are better to stop you spreading Covid to others
In depth look at Austria.
BBC news execs should watch and wonder why they wont/can't make a film like this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9io1MZz_7E
We will know in, what, five or six weeks?
Sis: Hold my beer.
Plus he can present to the rest that he's saved them. From a problem he caused.
the latest Survation national results put Labour and the Conservatives on level pegging - 37%, a change on the last round of Survation results published in October, which had the Conservatives enjoying a four point lead (39% to 35%).
It’s by election time, is any seat that safe especially when there is a big day glow elephant in the room message to send? Eye watering sums of tax payers money given to friends donors and lobbyists - is this the take back control and better democracy promised?
Sometimes to be a true friend you have to give them an honest message.
The by election loss won’t be anti Conservative, it will be friends sending honest message to friends.
Chris Bryant has been outstanding and I expect him to make the correct judgements
I am not certain but I understand even labour do not expect the changes to be retrospective
Of potentially concern for Downing Street is the finding that the verdict of Conservative 2019 voters on standards is also poor. Around half (49%) of Conservative 2019 voters do not believe that the current government upholds values of honesty and integrity. A minority (35% and 32% respectively) believed that they do, with the balance saying don’t know.
As questions about political integrity continue to be a focus in Westminster, the polling shows the Government’s reputation for standards in public life is poor among groups considered a key part of the Conservatives’ base:
Two-thirds of pensioners (66%) think the Government does not uphold the principle of integrity.
More than half (56%) of Leave voters think the Government does not uphold integrity.
Maybe this is why
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1461093108842741772?t=foO2-CXXX_alDisnMAiO0g&s=19
One sick bag is risibly inadequate here.
It does perhaps show just how narrow and incestuous the world of our governing elites are. They really all do seem to know each other.
By contrast the Tory to Labour swing was 9.5% in 1997 for example and in 2010 the Labour to Tory swing was 5%
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=1jnBa3UwmgwC&pg=RA3-PA121&lpg=RA3-PA121&dq=doethur+similar+words+in+welsh&source=bl&ots=aYw8Y2921t&sig=ACfU3U3qO11WtqpXw50xDzc5fAKIFUIufw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjAucaKqKD0AhUO_KQKHa0KAiEQ6AF6BAgTEAM#v=onepage&q=doethur similar words in welsh&f=false
At first I thought it was Martian.
https://www.sparknotes.com/lit/martianchronicles/characters/
My apologies for thinking your a Martian.
So Starmer could form a minority government with SNP support but the Tories would still be comfortably largest party
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=37&LAB=37&LIB=10&Reform=5&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Gee, wonder why?
Which tom are you a fan of?
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1461095076059394055?s=21
As to the "point", the UK is ahead of the vaccination curve and will naturally derive the benefits of booster vaccinations first - other countries are yet to get booster programmes and the vaccination of younger adults and children completed so it's little surprise they are seeing lots of cases.
The issue, as it was when we were reporting forty to fifty thousand cases per day is how this is translating to deaths and hospitalisations and it's the latter which drives whether restrictions are required. The second aspect is whether those going into hospital are primarily the unvaccinated.
Add to that the ICU capacities of other countries and it's impossible to derive too much from the data and notions of "careering into a Covid crisis" are somewhat overstated.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=37&LAB=37&LIB=10&Reform=5&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
2021 - the influence of the corrupt has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished
And pathetic point, given that I gave two specific instances of "Boris" not understanding, or not caring, about the mechanisms by which covid is spread.
How about "wouldliketogiveborishead" if you decide to troll the site under a new identity? No offence.
Boris is a coward. And an idiot. A cowardly idiot.
If the party of the candidate and/or whoever is in Government in Westminster are such powerful considerations even in by-elections (when both are much diminished in importance compared to general elections), then how much power is there in relying on such a mechanism for passing judgement on an MP’s own activities? It’d have to be such as to garner staggering voter condemnation (in a safe seat, anyway) to outweigh the standard party/Government drivers.
N.B. as stated before, I've been happy to play along with styling him Boris, in the confident knowledge that one day he would Ratner his own brand.
Good star ⭐️