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The betting gets tighter in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 17 in General
imageThe betting gets tighter in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

The above is a canvassing leaflet produced by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire and as can be seen shows the central focus of the by-election campaign. The party is making this about Tory sleaze helped by the fact that the reason there is a by-election at all is because of the resignation of the previous MP Owen Paterson.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,725
    First.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,366
    219th.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,693
    Decond!

    I would love to see the sleazy corrupt and incompetent Tories lose but just can't see it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,498
    edited November 17
    tlg86 said:

    First.

    I'm sorry tlg86, but you're session timed out. You're no longer 'first'. You're now 486th in the queue. Your waiting time is expected to be endless. Please instead use the website. It doesn't work of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 17
    I expect North Shropshire to be closer than Old Bexley and Sidcup.

    First because the LDs are positioning themselves as the main opponents to the Tories not Labour and Tory voters are more likely to go LD in by elections than Labour in a protest vote. The LDs also have the best by election machine.

    Second North Shropshire was almost 5% less Leave than Bexley was, Bexley voting 63% Leave in 2016.

    However while their majority will be smaller I expect the Tories to hold on, helped by a good Conservative candidate, with military, NHS and legal experience formerly based at a hospital and barracks in Shropshire.

    Labour are also standing a candidate in the by election so not all the anti Tory vote will go LD either and Labour can say they were second in 2019 so they should be the main challengers
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,501
    murali_s said:

    Decond!

    I would love to see the sleazy corrupt and incompetent Tories lose but just can't see it.

    Me neither. But being given a close run hurry up might concentrate minds further.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,836
    edited November 17
    Omnium said:

    tlg86 said:

    First.

    I'm sorry tlg86, but you're session timed out. You're no longer 'first'. You're now 486th in the queue. Your waiting time is expected to be endless. Please instead use the website. It doesn't work of course.
    How could you be so cynical. Your post is important to us. We are storing it for training and monitoring purposes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Ooh, that was quite the Machiavellian there from Starmer. Say the unparliamentary thing about Johnson that lots of people already think. Gets reported. Tories object. Gets reported. He ‘withdraws’. Gets reported. Three for one.
    https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1461056422557495301
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says he's been "struck by how many Tory MPs seem to have lost faith and confidence in the prime minister" following the Westminster sleaze row.

    Latest here: https://trib.al/TEE2sZp https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1461056824732434433/video/1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,755
    Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
    "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone" sounds like a euphemism for Stanley Johnson's behaviour.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,725
    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.
  • tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Ooh, that was quite the Machiavellian there from Starmer. Say the unparliamentary thing about Johnson that lots of people already think. Gets reported. Tories object. Gets reported. He ‘withdraws’. Gets reported. Three for one.
    https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1461056422557495301

    He may not be a career politician, but Starmer studies hard and learns fast.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,701

    Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
    I thought at least the Guardian would welcome such news.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    Why does the header leaflet carry a photograph of people from a fringe happy flappy religion?

    Actually I am on Libdems at 5-2 in my first political bet yesterday. What’s the point of by elections if not to produce mid term bloody noses?

    My only concern really, the Conservatives have had such a good couple of weeks, there’s nothing for voters to point to as reason for staying home or switching.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
    "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone" sounds like a euphemism for Stanley Johnson's behaviour.
    Except Romsey is nearer the English Channel than the North Sea.

    Is "English Channel" a euphemism?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,366
    HYUFD said:

    I expect North Shropshire to be closer than Old Bexley and Sidcup.

    First because the LDs are positioning themselves as the main opponents to the Tories not Labour and Tory voters are more likely to go LD in by elections than Labour in a protest vote. The LDs also have the best by election machine.

    Second North Shropshire was almost 5% less Leave than Bexley was, Bexley voting 63% Leave in 2016.

    However while their majority will be smaller I expect the Tories to hold on, helped by a good Conservative candidate, with military, NHS and legal experience formerly based at a hospital and barracks in Shropshire.

    Labour are also standing a candidate in the by election so not all the anti Tory vote will go LD either and Labour can say they were second in 2019 so they should be the main challengers

    We'll see.

    It does look like a tale of two different contests - Conservative vs Labour in Bexley and Conservative vs Liberal Democrat in North Shropshire.

    Bexley votes on December 2nd and North Shropshire on the 16th so to what extent any impact on the former will have on the latter again remains to be seen.

    These should be straightforward Conservative holds - the very fact we are even speculating about the possibility one or both might be lost shows we have entered a different political environment.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    What’s the own goal called, the moment the player scores it from 35 yards he is actually unconscious?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    edited November 17
    There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.

    There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.

    There's no history of Remain voting.

    Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.

    About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.

    If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
    "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone" sounds like a euphemism for Stanley Johnson's behaviour.
    Except Romsey is nearer the English Channel than the North Sea.

    Is "English Channel" a euphemism?
    Anything can be a euphemism if you use the right cadence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Nicknamed the Strategic Rail Review.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Labour say they’re now running digital ads in marginals where Tory MPs voted against their plan for immediate action.

    (Should be noted: Tory plans also support ban on some second jobs, but kick the can firmly down the road).
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1461062564817907717/photo/1
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,845
    Maybe the Lib Dems should have chosen Lembit as a candidate? He must know the area after his time in neighbouring Montgomeryshire and is building a new independent style profile for himself on GB News.
  • FPT

    RobD said:

    More economic illiteracy from Channel 4 this time "in October the cost of living jumped to its highest level in nearly a decade". Er no, just to its highest level since last month, as it almost always does.

    Wasn't it a journalist from Channel 4 who was surprised to learn of the existence of the ONS in the early days of Covid?
    It was one on the BBC at lunchtime who said that prices jumped by 4.2% in October.
    I heard Nuala McGovern earlier on Radio 5 talking about the effect on families of healthcare workers "when they come home having given 110, or maybe 120 percent"

    I was left disappointed that they've been giving so much less than infinity percent.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,498

    Why does the header leaflet carry a photograph of people from a fringe happy flappy religion?

    Actually I am on Libdems at 5-2 in my first political bet yesterday. What’s the point of by elections if not to produce mid term bloody noses?

    My only concern really, the Conservatives have had such a good couple of weeks, there’s nothing for voters to point to as reason for staying home or switching.

    I wish you luck with your first political bet. I think you'll lose your money, but I don't see it as an awful bet. If the price you backed was the correct price (godlike) then it'd be just a 2/(5+2 ) chance - so 28%. Of course if I'm wrong you'll win quite handsomely.

    However you could have got better odds on BF (maybe Smarkets too, don't know)

    Most people, most of the time, lose pretty badly on betting. Betting on politics is the same, but some wise few do outwit the bookmakers. However what the bookmakers want is the masses - they want all the money that they made from Trump for example.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,643
    That poster in the header is vaguely menacing.

    WE CALLED TO SEE YOU TODAY.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    ydoethur said:

    There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.

    There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.

    There's no history of Remain voting.

    Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.

    About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.

    If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.

    I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.

    Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?

    And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    Iain Dowie is a favourite of mine.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,643

    Scott_xP said:

    Ooh, that was quite the Machiavellian there from Starmer. Say the unparliamentary thing about Johnson that lots of people already think. Gets reported. Tories object. Gets reported. He ‘withdraws’. Gets reported. Three for one.
    https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1461056422557495301

    He may not be a career politician, but Starmer studies hard and learns fast.
    Hi looked almost human at PMQs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,501

    Maybe the Lib Dems should have chosen Lembit as a candidate? He must know the area after his time in neighbouring Montgomeryshire and is building a new independent style profile for himself on GB News.

    Not selling cars like his former gf and sister?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,643
    No, the Tories won’t lose Salop North or B&OS.

    Next.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Seriously though: “The UK is not corrupt” is somewhat undermined by “we can’t find the minutes, soz” *even if the latter statement is true*
    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1461064388966817795
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,643
    dixiedean said:

    Maybe the Lib Dems should have chosen Lembit as a candidate? He must know the area after his time in neighbouring Montgomeryshire and is building a new independent style profile for himself on GB News.

    Not selling cars like his former gf and sister?
    Are you accusing Lembit of incest?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,725

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    More like Djimi Traore:

    https://twitter.com/EmiratesFACup/status/1461060725582229504

    But you really need to see a replay - I think he kicked it against his standing leg.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358

    That poster in the header is vaguely menacing.

    WE CALLED TO SEE YOU TODAY.

    That’s what I have already said. and, if we saw you coming up the drive of the farm, we would have let the dogs out 😸
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    Just looked the Pollock OG up on YouTube. Utterly amazing. Never seen it before
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    More like Djimi Traore:

    https://twitter.com/EmiratesFACup/status/1461060725582229504

    But you really need to see a replay - I think he kicked it against his standing leg.
    Just seen the replay. Magnificent.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358

    Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
    "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone" sounds like a euphemism for Stanley Johnson's behaviour.
    Except Romsey is nearer the English Channel than the North Sea.

    Is "English Channel" a euphemism?
    Anything can be a euphemism if you use the right cadence.
    Give them the screaming eagles 😃
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,498

    Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
    "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone" sounds like a euphemism for Stanley Johnson's behaviour.
    Except Romsey is nearer the English Channel than the North Sea.

    Is "English Channel" a euphemism?
    Anything can be a euphemism if you use the right cadence.
    Give them the screaming eagles 😃
    If they do collections we're all sold.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,390
    I agree with Mike Smithson. The odds are strange; FWIW I think Labour at OB and S are a better, though small, chance than LDs at NS.

    The strangest thing about the odds is the outsider status of Labour at NS, where Labour usually come second. One thinks of NS as being a Lord Emsworth seat really, feudal types voting Tory, serfs Labour and less room for the LDs.

    I'm keeping out of this one unless and until there is some data, with a tiny sum on Labour for OB and S.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,755
    This isn't yet the full RKI number but it looks like another record day for cases in Germany.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1461063430828347395

    @BNODesk
    BREAKING: Germany reports more than 61,000 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record
  • Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    Just looked the Pollock OG up on YouTube. Utterly amazing. Never seen it before
    The context of the Pollock own goal is what makes it utterly magnificent.

    It came during the penultimate game of the season against relegation rivals QPR, with a win ensuring City would keep their fate in their own hands going into the final day at Stoke.

    A tense encounter had been lit up by Georgi Kinkladze – the ying to Pollock’s yang – as he scored a sublime free-kick on a stage absolutely not deserving of the Georgian’s talents.

    But that opener was cancelled out by former City striker Mike Sheron, ensuring a tentative crowd and group of players.

    Then it happened.

    Veteran QPR full-back David Bardsley, who was born in Manchester, chipped an aimless ball towards the box, which the intelligent Pollock easily read.

    The midfielder intercepted the pass before it could reach a red-and-black hooped striker. It was all incredibly calm by Pollock in a game of such importance.

    Then, having made the ground to get the ball, the former Middlesbrough man looped the ball high in the air over the QPR striker and covering defender. In a game of high intensity, it was good to see someone keep a cool head in such pressurised circumstances.

    All he had to do now was head the ball back to his goalkeeper, to the customary applause from the stands.

    Except Pollock, now in open space in his own area, was so focused on the dropping ball that he had not noticed Martyn Margetson had advanced off his goal-line to the edge of his six-yard box.

    Gravity did what was natural as the ball came back to earth, but Pollock’s science was an untried experiment of trying to send a looping header back to a man that was not where he thought he was. Thus completing the best worst own goal of all time.

    he Maine Road crowd fell silent and the QPR forwards ran off celebrating their own embarrassment, knowing their opponent had handed them the greatest survival boost of them all.

    Pollock turned, head bowed, to walk slowly back to the centre circle in full knowledge of what he had just done to the club he had only joined one month previously.

    Summing up this period of City’s history has always been tough for many. But luckily Pollock took it into his own hands and without writing a word embodied the late 90s at Maine Road for all future generations to see in just a few seconds of madness, which like most of what happened to the club during those years, no one could have foreseen, however vivid their imagination.

    Lee Bradbury, a man synonymous with City’s failings, would equalise in the game to earn his side a point, giving them a chance of staying up on the final day when they faced Stoke, but they needed other results to go their way.

    Naturally, City were victorious at the Britannia (as it was then), beating their fellow relegation victims 5-2, but they were relegated anyway as QPR survived.


    https://www.planetfootball.com/nostalgia/jamie-pollock-that-own-goal-how-man-city-fans-earned-their-stripes/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,501

    FPT

    RobD said:

    More economic illiteracy from Channel 4 this time "in October the cost of living jumped to its highest level in nearly a decade". Er no, just to its highest level since last month, as it almost always does.

    Wasn't it a journalist from Channel 4 who was surprised to learn of the existence of the ONS in the early days of Covid?
    It was one on the BBC at lunchtime who said that prices jumped by 4.2% in October.
    I heard Nuala McGovern earlier on Radio 5 talking about the effect on families of healthcare workers "when they come home having given 110, or maybe 120 percent"

    I was left disappointed that they've been giving so much less than infinity percent.
    Giving 100% implies giving the maximum effort.
    Above 100% suggests effort which is unsustainable in the medium to long term leading to burnout.
    Most systems (whether human or mechanical) have a capacity they are capable of operating at in extremis,. But a much lower one for long term reliability of performance.
    In this case I don't think this is an unreasonable analogy.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
    "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone" sounds like a euphemism for Stanley Johnson's behaviour.
    Except Romsey is nearer the English Channel than the North Sea.

    Is "English Channel" a euphemism?
    Anything can be a euphemism if you use the right cadence.
    Give them the screaming eagles 😃
    Been there, done that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,725

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    Just looked the Pollock OG up on YouTube. Utterly amazing. Never seen it before
    The context of the Pollock own goal is what makes it utterly magnificent.

    It came during the penultimate game of the season against relegation rivals QPR, with a win ensuring City would keep their fate in their own hands going into the final day at Stoke.

    A tense encounter had been lit up by Georgi Kinkladze – the ying to Pollock’s yang – as he scored a sublime free-kick on a stage absolutely not deserving of the Georgian’s talents.

    But that opener was cancelled out by former City striker Mike Sheron, ensuring a tentative crowd and group of players.

    Then it happened.

    Veteran QPR full-back David Bardsley, who was born in Manchester, chipped an aimless ball towards the box, which the intelligent Pollock easily read.

    The midfielder intercepted the pass before it could reach a red-and-black hooped striker. It was all incredibly calm by Pollock in a game of such importance.

    Then, having made the ground to get the ball, the former Middlesbrough man looped the ball high in the air over the QPR striker and covering defender. In a game of high intensity, it was good to see someone keep a cool head in such pressurised circumstances.

    All he had to do now was head the ball back to his goalkeeper, to the customary applause from the stands.

    Except Pollock, now in open space in his own area, was so focused on the dropping ball that he had not noticed Martyn Margetson had advanced off his goal-line to the edge of his six-yard box.

    Gravity did what was natural as the ball came back to earth, but Pollock’s science was an untried experiment of trying to send a looping header back to a man that was not where he thought he was. Thus completing the best worst own goal of all time.

    he Maine Road crowd fell silent and the QPR forwards ran off celebrating their own embarrassment, knowing their opponent had handed them the greatest survival boost of them all.

    Pollock turned, head bowed, to walk slowly back to the centre circle in full knowledge of what he had just done to the club he had only joined one month previously.

    Summing up this period of City’s history has always been tough for many. But luckily Pollock took it into his own hands and without writing a word embodied the late 90s at Maine Road for all future generations to see in just a few seconds of madness, which like most of what happened to the club during those years, no one could have foreseen, however vivid their imagination.

    Lee Bradbury, a man synonymous with City’s failings, would equalise in the game to earn his side a point, giving them a chance of staying up on the final day when they faced Stoke, but they needed other results to go their way.

    Naturally, City were victorious at the Britannia (as it was then), beating their fellow relegation victims 5-2, but they were relegated anyway as QPR survived.


    https://www.planetfootball.com/nostalgia/jamie-pollock-that-own-goal-how-man-city-fans-earned-their-stripes/
    Coincidentally, something like that's just happened in the Stockport v Bolton tie, except the Bolton striker made sure he got to the ball before it crossed the line to get a goal.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,498

    Scott_xP said:

    Not just France. Now Denmark is accusing the UK of breaking Brexit fishing deal over trawling ban at Dogger Bank. 🎣 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Are you in favour of "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone"?
    "destructive bottom trawling in a North Sea conservation zone" sounds like a euphemism for Stanley Johnson's behaviour.
    Except Romsey is nearer the English Channel than the North Sea.

    Is "English Channel" a euphemism?
    Anything can be a euphemism if you use the right cadence.
    Give them the screaming eagles 😃
    Been there, done that.
    Batons next time. Your escape hasn't gone unnoticed!
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    Just looked the Pollock OG up on YouTube. Utterly amazing. Never seen it before
    The context of the Pollock own goal is what makes it utterly magnificent.

    It came during the penultimate game of the season against relegation rivals QPR, with a win ensuring City would keep their fate in their own hands going into the final day at Stoke.

    A tense encounter had been lit up by Georgi Kinkladze – the ying to Pollock’s yang – as he scored a sublime free-kick on a stage absolutely not deserving of the Georgian’s talents.

    But that opener was cancelled out by former City striker Mike Sheron, ensuring a tentative crowd and group of players.

    Then it happened.

    Veteran QPR full-back David Bardsley, who was born in Manchester, chipped an aimless ball towards the box, which the intelligent Pollock easily read.

    The midfielder intercepted the pass before it could reach a red-and-black hooped striker. It was all incredibly calm by Pollock in a game of such importance.

    Then, having made the ground to get the ball, the former Middlesbrough man looped the ball high in the air over the QPR striker and covering defender. In a game of high intensity, it was good to see someone keep a cool head in such pressurised circumstances.

    All he had to do now was head the ball back to his goalkeeper, to the customary applause from the stands.

    Except Pollock, now in open space in his own area, was so focused on the dropping ball that he had not noticed Martyn Margetson had advanced off his goal-line to the edge of his six-yard box.

    Gravity did what was natural as the ball came back to earth, but Pollock’s science was an untried experiment of trying to send a looping header back to a man that was not where he thought he was. Thus completing the best worst own goal of all time.

    he Maine Road crowd fell silent and the QPR forwards ran off celebrating their own embarrassment, knowing their opponent had handed them the greatest survival boost of them all.

    Pollock turned, head bowed, to walk slowly back to the centre circle in full knowledge of what he had just done to the club he had only joined one month previously.

    Summing up this period of City’s history has always been tough for many. But luckily Pollock took it into his own hands and without writing a word embodied the late 90s at Maine Road for all future generations to see in just a few seconds of madness, which like most of what happened to the club during those years, no one could have foreseen, however vivid their imagination.

    Lee Bradbury, a man synonymous with City’s failings, would equalise in the game to earn his side a point, giving them a chance of staying up on the final day when they faced Stoke, but they needed other results to go their way.

    Naturally, City were victorious at the Britannia (as it was then), beating their fellow relegation victims 5-2, but they were relegated anyway as QPR survived.


    https://www.planetfootball.com/nostalgia/jamie-pollock-that-own-goal-how-man-city-fans-earned-their-stripes/
    Given where City are now it’s easy to forget how mediocre they used to be. Never forget Pleat running onto the pitch at Maine road a few seasons before when the powerhouse of Luton relegateD them. Some names in there who did far better for me in Championship Manager than they ever did in the same. Great article.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 867

    No, the Tories won’t lose Salop North or B&OS.

    Next.

    Its a betting site. You can make money if the price is wrong. OGH thinks the price is wrong. HOWEVER, the rebellion against Johnsonian sleaze is coming from within the Conservatives, so I am not sure that the Remainer/Leaver thing matters any more. The price could therefore be wrong in either direction. However from what I´m hearing there will be at the very least a very large number of Tories who will not be voting that way in the by-election. As the saying has it Sleaze has "cut through", but the question is: how much? So I´ll lurk a bit more before I put some shekels on the result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228

    ydoethur said:

    There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.

    There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.

    There's no history of Remain voting.

    Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.

    About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.

    If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.

    I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.

    Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?

    And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
    Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.

    Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1461035021129719812

    Censure vote for congressman who posted animated video of himself killing AOC.

    Just a normal day in American politics.
  • dixiedean said:

    FPT

    RobD said:

    More economic illiteracy from Channel 4 this time "in October the cost of living jumped to its highest level in nearly a decade". Er no, just to its highest level since last month, as it almost always does.

    Wasn't it a journalist from Channel 4 who was surprised to learn of the existence of the ONS in the early days of Covid?
    It was one on the BBC at lunchtime who said that prices jumped by 4.2% in October.
    I heard Nuala McGovern earlier on Radio 5 talking about the effect on families of healthcare workers "when they come home having given 110, or maybe 120 percent"

    I was left disappointed that they've been giving so much less than infinity percent.
    Giving 100% implies giving the maximum effort.
    Above 100% suggests effort which is unsustainable in the medium to long term leading to burnout.
    Most systems (whether human or mechanical) have a capacity they are capable of operating at in extremis,. But a much lower one for long term reliability of performance.
    In this case I don't think this is an unreasonable analogy.
    The numbers all go to eleven
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,581

    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    RobD said:

    More economic illiteracy from Channel 4 this time "in October the cost of living jumped to its highest level in nearly a decade". Er no, just to its highest level since last month, as it almost always does.

    Wasn't it a journalist from Channel 4 who was surprised to learn of the existence of the ONS in the early days of Covid?
    It was one on the BBC at lunchtime who said that prices jumped by 4.2% in October.
    I heard Nuala McGovern earlier on Radio 5 talking about the effect on families of healthcare workers "when they come home having given 110, or maybe 120 percent"

    I was left disappointed that they've been giving so much less than infinity percent.
    Giving 100% implies giving the maximum effort.
    Above 100% suggests effort which is unsustainable in the medium to long term leading to burnout.
    Most systems (whether human or mechanical) have a capacity they are capable of operating at in extremis,. But a much lower one for long term reliability of performance.
    In this case I don't think this is an unreasonable analogy.
    The numbers all go to eleven
    If your normal shift is 10 hours and you do an extra hour, isn’t that 110%? Or if you treat 11 patients in the time normally for 10, isn’t that 110%?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,163
    System said:

    imageThe betting gets tighter in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

    The above is a canvassing leaflet produced by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire and as can be seen shows the central focus of the by-election campaign. The party is making this about Tory sleaze helped by the fact that the reason there is a by-election at all is because of the resignation of the previous MP Owen Paterson.

    Read the full story here

    HYUFD said:

    I expect North Shropshire to be closer than Old Bexley and Sidcup.

    First because the LDs are positioning themselves as the main opponents to the Tories not Labour and Tory voters are more likely to go LD in by elections than Labour in a protest vote. The LDs also have the best by election machine.

    Second North Shropshire was almost 5% less Leave than Bexley was, Bexley voting 63% Leave in 2016.

    However while their majority will be smaller I expect the Tories to hold on, helped by a good Conservative candidate, with military, NHS and legal experience formerly based at a hospital and barracks in Shropshire.

    Labour are also standing a candidate in the by election so not all the anti Tory vote will go LD either and Labour can say they were second in 2019 so they should be the main challengers

    …..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,701

    System said:

    imageThe betting gets tighter in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

    The above is a canvassing leaflet produced by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire and as can be seen shows the central focus of the by-election campaign. The party is making this about Tory sleaze helped by the fact that the reason there is a by-election at all is because of the resignation of the previous MP Owen Paterson.

    Read the full story here

    HYUFD said:

    I expect North Shropshire to be closer than Old Bexley and Sidcup.

    First because the LDs are positioning themselves as the main opponents to the Tories not Labour and Tory voters are more likely to go LD in by elections than Labour in a protest vote. The LDs also have the best by election machine.

    Second North Shropshire was almost 5% less Leave than Bexley was, Bexley voting 63% Leave in 2016.

    However while their majority will be smaller I expect the Tories to hold on, helped by a good Conservative candidate, with military, NHS and legal experience formerly based at a hospital and barracks in Shropshire.

    Labour are also standing a candidate in the by election so not all the anti Tory vote will go LD either and Labour can say they were second in 2019 so they should be the main challengers

    …..
    I don't understand why you are highlighting these two things?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 1,000
    edited November 17

    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    RobD said:

    More economic illiteracy from Channel 4 this time "in October the cost of living jumped to its highest level in nearly a decade". Er no, just to its highest level since last month, as it almost always does.

    Wasn't it a journalist from Channel 4 who was surprised to learn of the existence of the ONS in the early days of Covid?
    It was one on the BBC at lunchtime who said that prices jumped by 4.2% in October.
    I heard Nuala McGovern earlier on Radio 5 talking about the effect on families of healthcare workers "when they come home having given 110, or maybe 120 percent"

    I was left disappointed that they've been giving so much less than infinity percent.
    Giving 100% implies giving the maximum effort.
    Above 100% suggests effort which is unsustainable in the medium to long term leading to burnout.
    Most systems (whether human or mechanical) have a capacity they are capable of operating at in extremis,. But a much lower one for long term reliability of performance.
    In this case I don't think this is an unreasonable analogy.
    The numbers all go to eleven
    If your normal shift is 10 hours and you do an extra hour, isn’t that 110%? Or if you treat 11 patients in the time normally for 10, isn’t that 110%?
    Compared to usual. To me it implies that the usual effort required isn't 100%.

    If you tell someone that you want them to give 100%, are you just asking them for their usual effort?

    Do we need to say 110%, or now 120%, or more, to imply maximum effort?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 941
    The value here is in backing the Conservatives. The odds will probably get even better in the run up to the day. An upset is not impossible, but extremely unlikely.

    Sleaze is not the only issue. The conservative U turn on planning reform after Chesham and Amersham will potentially benefit them in Shropshire.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    RobD said:

    More economic illiteracy from Channel 4 this time "in October the cost of living jumped to its highest level in nearly a decade". Er no, just to its highest level since last month, as it almost always does.

    Wasn't it a journalist from Channel 4 who was surprised to learn of the existence of the ONS in the early days of Covid?
    It was one on the BBC at lunchtime who said that prices jumped by 4.2% in October.
    I heard Nuala McGovern earlier on Radio 5 talking about the effect on families of healthcare workers "when they come home having given 110, or maybe 120 percent"

    I was left disappointed that they've been giving so much less than infinity percent.
    Giving 100% implies giving the maximum effort.
    Above 100% suggests effort which is unsustainable in the medium to long term leading to burnout.
    Most systems (whether human or mechanical) have a capacity they are capable of operating at in extremis,. But a much lower one for long term reliability of performance.
    In this case I don't think this is an unreasonable analogy.
    The numbers all go to eleven
    If your normal shift is 10 hours and you do an extra hour, isn’t that 110%? Or if you treat 11 patients in the time normally for 10, isn’t that 110%?
    Compared to usual. To me it implies that the usual effort required isn't 100%.

    If you tell someone that you want them to give 100%, are you just asking them for their usual effort?

    Do we need to say 110%, or now 120%, or more, to imply maximum effort?
    They’ll be stepping up,to,the plate and going the extra mile next.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Ooh, that was quite the Machiavellian there from Starmer. Say the unparliamentary thing about Johnson that lots of people already think. Gets reported. Tories object. Gets reported. He ‘withdraws’. Gets reported. Three for one.
    https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1461056422557495301

    BurnerGATE level clever.

    Liek

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Classic own goal in the Stockport v Bolton FA Cup tie.

    Not seen it, is it a Lee Dixon, Djimi Traore, or the greatest of own goals, a Jamie Pollock?
    Just looked the Pollock OG up on YouTube. Utterly amazing. Never seen it before
    The context of the Pollock own goal is what makes it utterly magnificent.

    It came during the penultimate game of the season against relegation rivals QPR, with a win ensuring City would keep their fate in their own hands going into the final day at Stoke.

    A tense encounter had been lit up by Georgi Kinkladze – the ying to Pollock’s yang – as he scored a sublime free-kick on a stage absolutely not deserving of the Georgian’s talents.

    But that opener was cancelled out by former City striker Mike Sheron, ensuring a tentative crowd and group of players.

    Then it happened.

    Veteran QPR full-back David Bardsley, who was born in Manchester, chipped an aimless ball towards the box, which the intelligent Pollock easily read.

    The midfielder intercepted the pass before it could reach a red-and-black hooped striker. It was all incredibly calm by Pollock in a game of such importance.

    Then, having made the ground to get the ball, the former Middlesbrough man looped the ball high in the air over the QPR striker and covering defender. In a game of high intensity, it was good to see someone keep a cool head in such pressurised circumstances.

    All he had to do now was head the ball back to his goalkeeper, to the customary applause from the stands.

    Except Pollock, now in open space in his own area, was so focused on the dropping ball that he had not noticed Martyn Margetson had advanced off his goal-line to the edge of his six-yard box.

    Gravity did what was natural as the ball came back to earth, but Pollock’s science was an untried experiment of trying to send a looping header back to a man that was not where he thought he was. Thus completing the best worst own goal of all time.

    he Maine Road crowd fell silent and the QPR forwards ran off celebrating their own embarrassment, knowing their opponent had handed them the greatest survival boost of them all.

    Pollock turned, head bowed, to walk slowly back to the centre circle in full knowledge of what he had just done to the club he had only joined one month previously.

    Summing up this period of City’s history has always been tough for many. But luckily Pollock took it into his own hands and without writing a word embodied the late 90s at Maine Road for all future generations to see in just a few seconds of madness, which like most of what happened to the club during those years, no one could have foreseen, however vivid their imagination.

    Lee Bradbury, a man synonymous with City’s failings, would equalise in the game to earn his side a point, giving them a chance of staying up on the final day when they faced Stoke, but they needed other results to go their way.

    Naturally, City were victorious at the Britannia (as it was then), beating their fellow relegation victims 5-2, but they were relegated anyway as QPR survived.


    https://www.planetfootball.com/nostalgia/jamie-pollock-that-own-goal-how-man-city-fans-earned-their-stripes/
    Lee Bradbury was in the Army before he was a professional footballer.

    I got told a story about City on tour in China. Everyone else struggling with the food and him going "this is the best I've ever eaten, lads".
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,498
    darkage said:

    The value here is in backing the Conservatives. The odds will probably get even better in the run up to the day. An upset is not impossible, but extremely unlikely.

    Sleaze is not the only issue. The conservative U turn on planning reform after Chesham and Amersham will potentially benefit them in Shropshire.

    At what price?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    Omnium said:

    darkage said:

    The value here is in backing the Conservatives. The odds will probably get even better in the run up to the day. An upset is not impossible, but extremely unlikely.

    Sleaze is not the only issue. The conservative U turn on planning reform after Chesham and Amersham will potentially benefit them in Shropshire.

    At what price?
    Anything above 5-1 on probably overrates their chances of losing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    memo to red wall MPs: the first no confidence letter submitted to the chair of the 1922 committee (that’s made public) is always the one that grabs the most headlines…
    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1461066044605452291
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    Incidentally, you know Starmer was forced to withdraw that remark about 'cowards?'

    I'm not sure his withdrawal was sincere...

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1460960668337807365
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,701
    Scott_xP said:

    memo to red wall MPs: the first no confidence letter submitted to the chair of the 1922 committee (that’s made public) is always the one that grabs the most headlines…
    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1461066044605452291

    Is the italic your own commentary, or has the text on the tweet been changed?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    RobD said:

    Is the italic your own commentary, or has the text on the tweet been changed?

    It's another tweet quoting the second

    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1461074493657518083

    If Twitter embed was turned on it would have worked...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,163
    RobD said:

    System said:

    imageThe betting gets tighter in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

    The above is a canvassing leaflet produced by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire and as can be seen shows the central focus of the by-election campaign. The party is making this about Tory sleaze helped by the fact that the reason there is a by-election at all is because of the resignation of the previous MP Owen Paterson.

    Read the full story here

    HYUFD said:

    I expect North Shropshire to be closer than Old Bexley and Sidcup.

    First because the LDs are positioning themselves as the main opponents to the Tories not Labour and Tory voters are more likely to go LD in by elections than Labour in a protest vote. The LDs also have the best by election machine.

    Second North Shropshire was almost 5% less Leave than Bexley was, Bexley voting 63% Leave in 2016.

    However while their majority will be smaller I expect the Tories to hold on, helped by a good Conservative candidate, with military, NHS and legal experience formerly based at a hospital and barracks in Shropshire.

    Labour are also standing a candidate in the by election so not all the anti Tory vote will go LD either and Labour can say they were second in 2019 so they should be the main challengers

    …..
    I don't understand why you are highlighting these two things?
    I’m not! I was just clearing the memory - for some reason they were in my reply box!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,701
    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    Is the italic your own commentary, or has the text on the tweet been changed?

    It's another tweet quoting the second

    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1461074493657518083

    If Twitter embed was turned on it would have worked...
    Ah, thanks. The link was inside the tweet you copied, rather than being the link of the tweet you copied.

    Bloody twitter....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.

    There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.

    There's no history of Remain voting.

    Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.

    About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.

    If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.

    I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.

    Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?

    And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
    Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.

    Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
    You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?

    How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.

  • MJWMJW Posts: 703
    Doubt the Lib Dems will pull it off but if you're a leave voting first time 2019 Tory there's a certain logic to giving the government a good old kick by staying at home/voting for someone else knowing a Tory loss would make the govt. more attuned to your wants, and safe in the knowledge that Brexit is now pretty much irreversible for at least a decade and you can vote Tory if you're really anti the formerly Remain parties at the next GE. We may see the 'leave' vote be less predictive than in Lab/Tory fights or national and local election.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,643
    Cicero said:

    No, the Tories won’t lose Salop North or B&OS.

    Next.

    Its a betting site. You can make money if the price is wrong. OGH thinks the price is wrong. HOWEVER, the rebellion against Johnsonian sleaze is coming from within the Conservatives, so I am not sure that the Remainer/Leaver thing matters any more. The price could therefore be wrong in either direction. However from what I´m hearing there will be at the very least a very large number of Tories who will not be voting that way in the by-election. As the saying has it Sleaze has "cut through", but the question is: how much? So I´ll lurk a bit more before I put some shekels on the result.
    Yep. The price is wrong. I’d put the LDs at 10% chance of winning NS.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Official Parliament pics give a scale of the absence of Tory MPs from PMQs today https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1461077114740953091/photo/1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    edited November 17

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.

    There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.

    There's no history of Remain voting.

    Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.

    About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.

    If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.

    I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.

    Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?

    And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
    Paterson has been mired in sleaze allegations for years. It hasn't stopped them voting for him. In fact, if anything there may be a sympathy vote, even though it would I think be misplaced.

    Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
    You have Boris resigning because of it. I have spokesperson sent out that day with “we know people stayed at home, we know we need to up our game, we will do and will take this back at the general election.” Simply It’s mid term. These things always happen. And it’s forgotten by tea time. In other words I think you bigged defeat in this one up too much. Is that clearer?

    How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.

    I think you've misunderstood my post, which judging from the slightly incoherent nature of what you've written is perhaps not altogether surprising. Nowhere do I say that leavers are sleazy, I said the voters of North Shropshire are Leavers, and separately they don't appear to care about the fact that Paterson has been accused of taking bungs for two decades, which negates two otherwise potentially fruitful lines of Lib Dem attack. Just as Keith Vaz, who was also an out and out wrong 'un, was still very popular in Leicester due to what @Foxy pithily calls 'the politics of the pork barrel.' Which was the point - the suggestion was that sleaze will do for the Tories here, I'm pointing out if that were true it would have done so years ago.

    Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,503
    Scott_xP said:

    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101

    Lovely fair and balanced reporting as ever from you
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,498

    Cicero said:

    No, the Tories won’t lose Salop North or B&OS.

    Next.

    Its a betting site. You can make money if the price is wrong. OGH thinks the price is wrong. HOWEVER, the rebellion against Johnsonian sleaze is coming from within the Conservatives, so I am not sure that the Remainer/Leaver thing matters any more. The price could therefore be wrong in either direction. However from what I´m hearing there will be at the very least a very large number of Tories who will not be voting that way in the by-election. As the saying has it Sleaze has "cut through", but the question is: how much? So I´ll lurk a bit more before I put some shekels on the result.
    Yep. The price is wrong. I’d put the LDs at 10% chance of winning NS.
    If you care to bet then there are excellent opportunities on that basis.

    I sort of see it as about a 66% chance of a Tory win. I have low confidence in my own view.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,899
    F (the thread before the) PT
    Selebian said:

    Re the Yorkshire CC racism debacle...

    Apols for my ignorance, is the use of "Kevin" as a derogatory term something unique to YCC or a wider issue?

    I wondered that too. I've never heard of it and lived relatively locally (although thankfully across the border in the good, non-racist* bit of Yorkshire) for almost a decade.

    *to be fair, N Yorks is so white that there probably isn't much chance for racists to practice their craft, so they head west to where there are more opportunities
    I have to say I think that's wrong. When we lived near Selby, N. Yorks, we encountered more racism* than anywhere else we have lived.

    I put this down to the fear of the unknown. Selby was overwhelmingly white and all those I met who passed casually racist comments seemed to have no actual experience of knowing anyone from different cultures. In contrast, in Halifax for example, most people seemed to rub along pretty well regardless of culture or ethnicity.

    Sorry @Selebian to appear to be dissing Selby, which otherwise has much to commend it, but that's how I found it.

    (*The racism wasn't directed at us, being white, rather we were incorrectly assumed to be co-conspirators.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,725
    edited November 17
    These mythical tea rooms must be very nice. Backbench MPs seem to spend most of their time in them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    Stormont Ministers have voted for mandatory vaccine passports to be introduced in NI from next month

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1460997307151880203?s=20
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476
    Scott_xP said:

    Official Parliament pics give a scale of the absence of Tory MPs from PMQs today https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1461077114740953091/photo/1

    He’s toast if he loses the two by elections.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101

    This is the Guardian's take on it

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/mps-back-johnson-amendment-over-second-jobs?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,701
    Scott_xP said:

    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101

    Judging from the Twitter replies, SKS does not seem to have universal support to put it mildly
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854
    Labour were only 2,000 votes from winning North Shropshire in 1997.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 17
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Official Parliament pics give a scale of the absence of Tory MPs from PMQs today https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1461077114740953091/photo/1

    He’s toast if he loses the two by elections.
    He probably won't but even if he did that does not necessarily mean he is doomed.

    John Major survived the loss of safe Tory seats from Newbury to Christchurch to Eastleigh and SE Staffordshire in by elections from 1993 to 1997.

    Gordon Brown survived the loss of Labour seats from Crewe and Nantwich to Norwich North and Glasgow East in by elections from 2007 to 2010.

    It would need both Labour to build a big lead and an alternative leader to clearly poll better against Starmer than Boris does too (as for example Heseltine and Major polled better against Kinnock than Thatcher did in 1990) as well as by election losses for Boris to be replaced.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101

    Probably a wise political move at this time.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,498

    Scott_xP said:

    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101

    This is the Guardian's take on it

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/mps-back-johnson-amendment-over-second-jobs?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,701

    Scott_xP said:

    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101

    This is the Guardian's take on it

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/mps-back-johnson-amendment-over-second-jobs?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Can someone explain please why it is so bad for MPs to have second jobs but it is ok for NHS consultants to do private work?

    Many of the same arguments being used against MPs could also be used against those consultants who take private work. Their taking of a second job acts against the interests of those for whom they are being paid their main salary (NHS patients) by reducing the number of hours they can see those patients with private patients paid first. Plus, in many cases, they are using NHS resources to facilitate their private practice.

    I really don't see the difference
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 941
    Regarding sleaze in the conservative party and government more generally; I think this was a ticking time bomb that would have exploded at some point; the Patterson U turn just had the effect of bringing it all in to sudden focus.
  • ydoethur said:

    There's no history of major Liberal Democrat activity in the seat (well, not for thirty years). They came second in 2010 by a smidgeon, in 2015 and 2017 they barely saved their deposit.

    There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to mislead voters over campaign on.

    There's no history of Remain voting.

    Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.

    About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.

    If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.

    I don’t want to start a big argument with you, but two questions.

    Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?

    And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
    Yes. I have read so many posts - most of them from HYUFD - that as this is a leave seat it will stay Tory, as if voting one way 5 years ago means you will always vote that way.

    So lets talk Brexit. A vote to remove snouts from the trough. Which is what todays Corrupt Tory party is all about and the previous member for this seat in particular.

    The corrupt party couldn't even find a local candidate and had to delete whole social media accounts after the chap said he had no idea where the seat is. So sneering ignorance from the corrupt party to add to their issues.

    So its a by-election. Where people send messages to government. In their case do the support corruption or don't they? Voting for Brexit doesn't mean they want corruption no matter how many times the Essicks Massiv claims they do.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,868
    Quiz question - what island is Ynys Mon in English. I literally only knew because of the 2019 election. 😄
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Omnium said:

    The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward.

    He hid in a fridge...

    Be bravely ran away, many. many , many times.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,836
    edited November 17
    Omnium said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101

    This is the Guardian's take on it

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/mps-back-johnson-amendment-over-second-jobs?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    The strange thing is that Boris clearly isn't a coward. Starmer perhaps is - he's certainly not brave. Such a thing doesn't matter greatly though in UK politics.
    Hiding in a fridge, or from scrutiny for much of his life, doesn't seem particularly brave, to me. Johnson strikes me the as the kind of person who's only brave when he has twenty supporters shouting and surrounding behind. Otherwise he seems to absolutely vanish.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,899
    edited November 17
    MrEd said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tonight, Labour gave the Conservatives the chance to do the right thing and vote to immediately stop MPs working on dodgy second jobs.

    They didn’t do it.

    The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101

    Judging from the Twitter replies, SKS does not seem to have universal support to put it mildly
    Not sure about the replies to SKS but they did lead me to this, which is the best thing I have read all week...

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1460940022153154562?s=20
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,581
    MaxPB said:

    Quiz question - what island is Ynys Mon in English. I literally only knew because of the 2019 election. 😄

    Anglesey
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 17
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour were only 2,000 votes from winning North Shropshire in 1997.

    Yes but with the exception of Canterbury (because it is now full of students completely unlike North Shropshire which is full of sheep) if the Tories still won a seat even in 1997 and 2001 they will never lose it, especially if the seat also voted Leave like North Shropshire did
  • MaxPB said:

    Quiz question - what island is Ynys Mon in English. I literally only knew because of the 2019 election. 😄

    I won't spoil your question but I can see it
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,836
    edited November 17
    Yup. It'll be interesting to see if and when it changes its line on corruption, and if then Dacre gets the Ofcom job. Verity seems very much in the mould of his old mentor and boss.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    This tweet has upset the Culture Secretary

    After PMQs, then Liaison Committe, PM then went to face his own MPs at the 1922 committee - one texts to say, he 'looked weak and sounded weak' , 'authority is evaporating'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1461030974007955463
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