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The betting gets tighter in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
The betting gets tighter in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
The above is a canvassing leaflet produced by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire and as can be seen shows the central focus of the by-election campaign. The party is making this about Tory sleaze helped by the fact that the reason there is a by-election at all is because of the resignation of the previous MP Owen Paterson.
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I would love to see the sleazy corrupt and incompetent Tories lose but just can't see it.
First because the LDs are positioning themselves as the main opponents to the Tories not Labour and Tory voters are more likely to go LD in by elections than Labour in a protest vote. The LDs also have the best by election machine.
Second North Shropshire was almost 5% less Leave than Bexley was, Bexley voting 63% Leave in 2016.
However while their majority will be smaller I expect the Tories to hold on, helped by a good Conservative candidate, with military, NHS and legal experience formerly based at a hospital and barracks in Shropshire.
Labour are also standing a candidate in the by election so not all the anti Tory vote will go LD either and Labour can say they were second in 2019 so they should be the main challengers
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1461056422557495301
Latest here: https://trib.al/TEE2sZp https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1461056824732434433/video/1
Actually I am on Libdems at 5-2 in my first political bet yesterday. What’s the point of by elections if not to produce mid term bloody noses?
My only concern really, the Conservatives have had such a good couple of weeks, there’s nothing for voters to point to as reason for staying home or switching.
Is "English Channel" a euphemism?
It does look like a tale of two different contests - Conservative vs Labour in Bexley and Conservative vs Liberal Democrat in North Shropshire.
Bexley votes on December 2nd and North Shropshire on the 16th so to what extent any impact on the former will have on the latter again remains to be seen.
These should be straightforward Conservative holds - the very fact we are even speculating about the possibility one or both might be lost shows we have entered a different political environment.
There's no big local issue for the Lib Dems to
mislead voters overcampaign on.There's no history of Remain voting.
Owen Paterson has been known locally as a sleazebag for years but that didn't affect his holding of the seat.
About the only thing the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that Helen Morgan does at least live in the constituency, which is more than can be said for her opponent.
If they take this one, it's genuinely seismic. As in, Boris Johnson will have to resign the same day seismic. Far more so than Glasgow East, or Orpington.
(Should be noted: Tory plans also support ban on some second jobs, but kick the can firmly down the road). https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1461062564817907717/photo/1
I was left disappointed that they've been giving so much less than infinity percent.
However you could have got better odds on BF (maybe Smarkets too, don't know)
Most people, most of the time, lose pretty badly on betting. Betting on politics is the same, but some wise few do outwit the bookmakers. However what the bookmakers want is the masses - they want all the money that they made from Trump for example.
WE CALLED TO SEE YOU TODAY.
Why assume though that leave voters would be comfortable giving a big thumbs up to sleaze? Surely anti gravy train and snouts in trough is part of the leave voters dna and drove Brexit in first place?
And really this seismic, or typical mid term blues odd result, returns to normal at GE so not that shocking, and easily brushed off by Boris business team next morning with take back at general election?
Next.
https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1461064388966817795
https://twitter.com/EmiratesFACup/status/1461060725582229504
But you really need to see a replay - I think he kicked it against his standing leg.
The strangest thing about the odds is the outsider status of Labour at NS, where Labour usually come second. One thinks of NS as being a Lord Emsworth seat really, feudal types voting Tory, serfs Labour and less room for the LDs.
I'm keeping out of this one unless and until there is some data, with a tiny sum on Labour for OB and S.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1461063430828347395
@BNODesk
BREAKING: Germany reports more than 61,000 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record
It came during the penultimate game of the season against relegation rivals QPR, with a win ensuring City would keep their fate in their own hands going into the final day at Stoke.
A tense encounter had been lit up by Georgi Kinkladze – the ying to Pollock’s yang – as he scored a sublime free-kick on a stage absolutely not deserving of the Georgian’s talents.
But that opener was cancelled out by former City striker Mike Sheron, ensuring a tentative crowd and group of players.
Then it happened.
Veteran QPR full-back David Bardsley, who was born in Manchester, chipped an aimless ball towards the box, which the intelligent Pollock easily read.
The midfielder intercepted the pass before it could reach a red-and-black hooped striker. It was all incredibly calm by Pollock in a game of such importance.
Then, having made the ground to get the ball, the former Middlesbrough man looped the ball high in the air over the QPR striker and covering defender. In a game of high intensity, it was good to see someone keep a cool head in such pressurised circumstances.
All he had to do now was head the ball back to his goalkeeper, to the customary applause from the stands.
Except Pollock, now in open space in his own area, was so focused on the dropping ball that he had not noticed Martyn Margetson had advanced off his goal-line to the edge of his six-yard box.
Gravity did what was natural as the ball came back to earth, but Pollock’s science was an untried experiment of trying to send a looping header back to a man that was not where he thought he was. Thus completing the best worst own goal of all time.
he Maine Road crowd fell silent and the QPR forwards ran off celebrating their own embarrassment, knowing their opponent had handed them the greatest survival boost of them all.
Pollock turned, head bowed, to walk slowly back to the centre circle in full knowledge of what he had just done to the club he had only joined one month previously.
Summing up this period of City’s history has always been tough for many. But luckily Pollock took it into his own hands and without writing a word embodied the late 90s at Maine Road for all future generations to see in just a few seconds of madness, which like most of what happened to the club during those years, no one could have foreseen, however vivid their imagination.
Lee Bradbury, a man synonymous with City’s failings, would equalise in the game to earn his side a point, giving them a chance of staying up on the final day when they faced Stoke, but they needed other results to go their way.
Naturally, City were victorious at the Britannia (as it was then), beating their fellow relegation victims 5-2, but they were relegated anyway as QPR survived.
https://www.planetfootball.com/nostalgia/jamie-pollock-that-own-goal-how-man-city-fans-earned-their-stripes/
Above 100% suggests effort which is unsustainable in the medium to long term leading to burnout.
Most systems (whether human or mechanical) have a capacity they are capable of operating at in extremis,. But a much lower one for long term reliability of performance.
In this case I don't think this is an unreasonable analogy.
Is your second paragraph actually a question? Because if so it's so obscurely phrased I can't identify what the question is.
Censure vote for congressman who posted animated video of himself killing AOC.
Just a normal day in American politics.
If you tell someone that you want them to give 100%, are you just asking them for their usual effort?
Do we need to say 110%, or now 120%, or more, to imply maximum effort?
Sleaze is not the only issue. The conservative U turn on planning reform after Chesham and Amersham will potentially benefit them in Shropshire.
Liek Lee Bradbury was in the Army before he was a professional footballer.
I got told a story about City on tour in China. Everyone else struggling with the food and him going "this is the best I've ever eaten, lads".
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1461066044605452291
I'm not sure his withdrawal was sincere...
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1460960668337807365
https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1461074493657518083
If Twitter embed was turned on it would have worked...
Bloody twitter....
How about my point that anti gravy boat anti sleaze is part of leavers dna? like Boris tactics you didn’t address this and answered something else.
Your second paragraph - no. Orpington in 1962 was a factor in Macmillan's departure (insofar as it kicked off the chain of events that led to it) but this would be far more serious. There is pretty well nothing for the Lib Dems to campaign on and if they win, from third, from 45 points behind, in a seat they have never actually won and have lost all their old key supporters as the Welsh speaking areas declined, that's a sign Johnson has lost his appeal. That would be terminal. I think you simply do not grasp how safe a Tory seat this is or how far demography favours them. It would be the equivalent of the Greens gaining Liverpool Wavertree from a Labour government.
They didn’t do it.
The Prime Minister is a coward and the Conservative party is corrupt.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461079247443972101
I sort of see it as about a 66% chance of a Tory win. I have low confidence in my own view.
I put this down to the fear of the unknown. Selby was overwhelmingly white and all those I met who passed casually racist comments seemed to have no actual experience of knowing anyone from different cultures. In contrast, in Halifax for example, most people seemed to rub along pretty well regardless of culture or ethnicity.
Sorry @Selebian to appear to be dissing Selby, which otherwise has much to commend it, but that's how I found it.
(*The racism wasn't directed at us, being white, rather we were incorrectly assumed to be co-conspirators.)
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1460997307151880203?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/mps-back-johnson-amendment-over-second-jobs?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
John Major survived the loss of safe Tory seats from Newbury to Christchurch to Eastleigh and SE Staffordshire in by elections from 1993 to 1997.
Gordon Brown survived the loss of Labour seats from Crewe and Nantwich to Norwich North and Glasgow East in by elections from 2007 to 2010.
It would need both Labour to build a big lead and an alternative leader to clearly poll better against Starmer than Boris does too (as for example Heseltine and Major polled better against Kinnock than Thatcher did in 1990) as well as by election losses for Boris to be replaced.
Many of the same arguments being used against MPs could also be used against those consultants who take private work. Their taking of a second job acts against the interests of those for whom they are being paid their main salary (NHS patients) by reducing the number of hours they can see those patients with private patients paid first. Plus, in many cases, they are using NHS resources to facilitate their private practice.
I really don't see the difference
So lets talk Brexit. A vote to remove snouts from the trough. Which is what todays Corrupt Tory party is all about and the previous member for this seat in particular.
The corrupt party couldn't even find a local candidate and had to delete whole social media accounts after the chap said he had no idea where the seat is. So sneering ignorance from the corrupt party to add to their issues.
So its a by-election. Where people send messages to government. In their case do the support corruption or don't they? Voting for Brexit doesn't mean they want corruption no matter how many times the Essicks Massiv claims they do.
Be bravely ran away, many. many , many times.
https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1460940022153154562?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/nov/17/geordie-greig-ousted-as-editor-of-the-daily-mail
The reason my account is empty is because I bet on them winning C&A.
After PMQs, then Liaison Committe, PM then went to face his own MPs at the 1922 committee - one texts to say, he 'looked weak and sounded weak' , 'authority is evaporating'
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1461030974007955463