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Johnson’s big HS3 gamble – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 16 in General
imageJohnson’s big HS3 gamble – politicalbetting.com

As seen above six leading regional newspapers from Tyneside to Manchester all had similar front pages as part of a coordinated last ditch effort to save Northern Powerhouse Rail which looks as though it will be ditched on Thursday by the government.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,925
    edited November 16
    Boris the Bastard!

    We Northerners will not forget the Harrying Of The North.
  • I'm glad I stopped playing cricket aged 14.
  • I'm glad I stopped playing cricket aged 14.

    And went to work in your Uncle's shop as suggested by YCCC as a suitable alternative?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Eagles, in defence of the imbecile of Number 10, he isn't planning to cause the deaths of 75% of people in Yorkshire.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    Normally on pb.com I'm just an anonymous oik on the internet who will blether any old nonsense. On this subject, I'm an anonymous oik on the internet who knows what he's talking about. I'd say in the North if it was a choice between HS2 and HS3 (or NPR, as it's more usually called) we'd plump for the latter.

    I said last night the big gain from high speed rail is taking fast trains off suburban services. There's a lot more potential to do that with NPR than HS2.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    I'm glad I stopped playing cricket aged 14.

    There are Asian and West Indian players at our small Essex town club.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500
    What a superb bit of branding the publicity for Trainspotting was.
    25 years later the orange and white is still unmistakable.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476

    Mr. Eagles, in defence of the imbecile of Number 10, he isn't planning to cause the deaths of 75% of people in Yorkshire.

    That's only because he can't plan anything.
  • Trains were basically invented in the North of England. Abandoning these rail projects is an utterly shameful betrayal be the government. Although having spent part of my childhood in the North East during the early to mid 1980s I always found the idea that the Tories gave two shits about the North a fairly laughable concept.

    I await the detail but if the 90 billion investment in rail in the north is true then that is a lot of money
  • I'm glad I stopped playing cricket aged 14.

    And went to work in your Uncle's shop as suggested by YCCC as a suitable alternative?
    More I had to focus on my GCSEs and A Levels.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500
    "I chose not to choose the North."
  • Mr. Eagles, in defence of the imbecile of Number 10, he isn't planning to cause the deaths of 75% of people in Yorkshire.

    Given he wanted the bodies to pile high are you really sure about that?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    On another subject, another thing this shows is that local media isn't dead yet.
    My view - and this is blether rather than me knowing what I'm talking about - is that the MEN is more influential in GM than any of the national papers. I'm sure the same is true of the Echo on Merseyside, the Chronicle in the North East, the Yorkshire Post in Yorkshire, and so on.
    This makes me happy and slightly proud for reasons I can't quite place.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    A live stream of the chaos on the Belarus border


    https://twitter.com/dtsp17/status/1460549567120826368?s=21

    The Polish forces not taking any shit. I thought they’d buckle. Not gonna happen

    Which means two other possible outcomes. Lukashenko/Putin give up and send the migrants back to Syria, or so many of the migrants start dying in the wet and cold they disperse of their own accord
  • dixiedean said:

    What a superb bit of branding the publicity for Trainspotting was.
    25 years later the orange and white is still unmistakable.

    Trainspotting had a profound effect on this seventeen year old.

    It is the main reason I’ve never done drugs.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476
    dixiedean said:

    What a superb bit of branding the publicity for Trainspotting was.
    25 years later the orange and white is still unmistakable.

    Had the poster in my room at Uni. It was a hugely anticipated film - the book was probably the defining book of my generation - and it more than lived up to expectations.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 545
    FPT:

    Time for a bit of a tangent.

    The Netherlands is one of the countries, alongside the UK, that has been moving upwards towards the great race to the middle that we are seeing in corporate tax across the developed world.

    It's one of the most remarkable trends over the last 3 or 4 years and one that not only waters down any meaningful tax rate arbitrage between countries but also potentially renders government use of tax incentives for investment toothless.

    The NL has for a few years had a mainstream rate of around 25% (25.5% until recently), but was able to make use of a number of tools to give MNCs lower effective rates. With the exception of the innovation box pretty much all of these are no longer available due to BEPS, EU state aid challenges and a general change in the ethos of the government.

    The UK as we know is raising its main CT rate from 19% to 25%. The patent box was one of our principal innovation incentives, alongside R&D credits. The qualification rules changed following BEPS and really kicked in this year, making it harder to access.

    Meanwhile the rest of Europe is cutting rates. France will be at 25% from next year (plus a few small surcharges). Italy is now at 24% plus their IRAP which takes the rate to around 25-26%. Spain is now 25%. Belgium is now 25%. Korea is 25%. And, most remarkably after the falling through of much of the original Biden tax plan, the US is likely to remain at 21% + state taxes i.e. an effective rate of....25%. Only Germany (c.29-31% depending on location) and Japan (30.62%) remain outliers.

    And BEPS 2.0 will put a floor under even the low tax countries including the SIS (Switzerland, Ireland and Singapore). It introduces a global minimum tax from 2023 and Ireland, for example, has already undertaken to increase its mainstream rate from 12.5% to 15%. Singapore will withdraw its current tax incentive rates. Switzerland has already reformed corporate tax to give rates from the low to high teens.

    What does this mean for government use of tax to incentivise FDI? It will change massively, and already has done to some extent. There is little rate arbitrage left, and you can't go below 15%. So we are seeing governments focusing instead on direct subsidy, regulatory incentives (e.g. planning exemptions) and non-CT tax incentives on payroll tax or indirect taxes - see Switzerland's recent announcement it will drop all customs duties on industrial products.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853

    Trains were basically invented in the North of England. Abandoning these rail projects is an utterly shameful betrayal be the government. Although having spent part of my childhood in the North East during the early to mid 1980s I always found the idea that the Tories gave two shits about the North a fairly laughable concept.

    I await the detail but if the 90 billion investment in rail in the north is true then that is a lot of money
    It's not going to be anything like 90 billion... It's likely to be a large amount of investigation schemes all of which were done previously and are why HS2 and HS3 have been the core focus for the past 10 years.

    Short highlight version, the lines are at (over) capacity so we need new lines and if we have new lines they may as well be fast.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Eagles, the PM is a juvenile incapable of taking anything seriously. It's wrong to hold him to the standards of a functioning adult, in the same way it's wrong he's in the House of Commons.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085

    dixiedean said:

    What a superb bit of branding the publicity for Trainspotting was.
    25 years later the orange and white is still unmistakable.

    Trainspotting had a profound effect on this seventeen year old.

    It is the main reason I’ve never done drugs.
    I was once so fucked up on heroin I scared Irvine Welsh into running out of a Tesco in Soho

    Absolutely true story
  • In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,001
    Cookie said:

    On another subject, another thing this shows is that local media isn't dead yet.
    My view - and this is blether rather than me knowing what I'm talking about - is that the MEN is more influential in GM than any of the national papers. I'm sure the same is true of the Echo on Merseyside, the Chronicle in the North East, the Yorkshire Post in Yorkshire, and so on.
    This makes me happy and slightly proud for reasons I can't quite place.

    I think Jennifer Williams on the MEN is one of the best journalists around. I wouldn't be surprised if she coordinated the Northern trainspotting campaign.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,080
    eek said:

    Trains were basically invented in the North of England. Abandoning these rail projects is an utterly shameful betrayal be the government. Although having spent part of my childhood in the North East during the early to mid 1980s I always found the idea that the Tories gave two shits about the North a fairly laughable concept.

    I await the detail but if the 90 billion investment in rail in the north is true then that is a lot of money
    It's not going to be anything like 90 billion... It's likely to be a large amount of investigation schemes all of which were done previously and are why HS2 and HS3 have been the core focus for the past 10 years.

    Short highlight version, the lines are at (over) capacity so we need new lines and if we have new lines they may as well be fast.
    Governments love big headline figures which mean nothing.
    As apparently does Big_G.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,755
    Leon said:

    A live stream of the chaos on the Belarus border


    https://twitter.com/dtsp17/status/1460549567120826368?s=21

    The Polish forces not taking any shit. I thought they’d buckle. Not gonna happen

    Which means two other possible outcomes. Lukashenko/Putin give up and send the migrants back to Syria, or so many of the migrants start dying in the wet and cold they disperse of their own accord

    Meanwhile the European Parliament is telling Von Der Leyen not to approve Poland's recovery plan.

    https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1460502047552323584
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    And it's also completely irrelevant to the issue here.

    Boris promised HS2 and HS3 - and is now backtracking from those commitments. Ones that helped him win the Red Wall seats in the north.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Richard, that's true, but the fact money's found for southern infrastructure but Yorkshire can do without is still a very damaging story.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    The Indie has it in for the PM's Dad; like son, like father?
    'Two women — including Tory MP Caroline Nokes — have accused Boris Johnson’s father Stanley of inappropriately touching them.

    Ms Nokes, who is the chair of the parliamentary women and equalities committee, said the 81-year-old smacked her “on the backside about as hard as he could” during a party conference in 2003.

    The elder Mr Johnson declined to comment about her allegation made to Sky News, other than to say he has “no recollection of Caroline Nokes at all”.'
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/16/stanley-johnson-accused-of-inappropriately-touching-tory-mp

    The prime minister’s father, Stanley Johnson, has been accused of inappropriately touching a former cabinet minister as well as a senior political journalist.

    Not impressed. For sure, report the story - and it's very much of interest to hear what Tory Party conferences used to be like (I hope they aren't like that now) - but saying "PM's dad..." is pretty disgraceful. It doesn't make the story any more significant.
  • The Integrated Rail Plan for Transport for the North had some significant core projects. Including:
    NPR High Speed Liverpool > Manchester Airport. This connects to HS2 for southern access towards Birmingham and London, and joins it northbound towards Manchester
    NPR High Speed Manchester > Leeds. A new Pennines base tunnel connecting high speed lines at either end, connecting into HS2 into the new station in Leeds

    The idea being that we can massively speed up travel between the big northern cities and add huge additional capacity for local travel. Currently through services are slow and hamper the ability to run sufficient local trains.

    What appears to be happening is a binning of this whole project. Instead they will dress up the existing Transpennine Route Upgrade and call it NPR. Standby for years of disruption, bustitution and cancelled trains - where the outcome is not much extra capacity or speed. They aren't even committing to electrification - because its so massively complex and expensive where the line passes by people's front doors at Mossley and through the Standedge tunnel.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,701

    Mr. Richard, that's true, but the fact money's found for southern infrastructure but Yorkshire can do without is still a very damaging story.

    I’ve not been following this too closely, but isn’t the (leaked) proposal that they find other projects instead, rather than a simple cancellation?
  • Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Trains were basically invented in the North of England. Abandoning these rail projects is an utterly shameful betrayal be the government. Although having spent part of my childhood in the North East during the early to mid 1980s I always found the idea that the Tories gave two shits about the North a fairly laughable concept.

    I await the detail but if the 90 billion investment in rail in the north is true then that is a lot of money
    It's not going to be anything like 90 billion... It's likely to be a large amount of investigation schemes all of which were done previously and are why HS2 and HS3 have been the core focus for the past 10 years.

    Short highlight version, the lines are at (over) capacity so we need new lines and if we have new lines they may as well be fast.
    Governments love big headline figures which mean nothing.
    As apparently does Big_G.
    You can also tell the people who use the trains a lot, particularly in the desolate North.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,001
    edited November 16

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,080
    eek said:

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    And it's also completely irrelevant to the issue here....
    I'd say it's quite relevant, particularly if you're talking about the transPennine services.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085

    Leon said:

    A live stream of the chaos on the Belarus border


    https://twitter.com/dtsp17/status/1460549567120826368?s=21

    The Polish forces not taking any shit. I thought they’d buckle. Not gonna happen

    Which means two other possible outcomes. Lukashenko/Putin give up and send the migrants back to Syria, or so many of the migrants start dying in the wet and cold they disperse of their own accord

    Meanwhile the European Parliament is telling Von Der Leyen not to approve Poland's recovery plan.

    https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1460502047552323584
    This is the one thing that could turn Polish people against the EU. The Polish government is already eurosceptic but it has a populace that likes EU money and movement

    If the EU cuts off the money, that changes. Especially if it is combined with pressure on Poland to let migrants in
  • I'm wondering where the YEP is on this? I have feeling they may have opposed HS2 in the past and so not joined in on this pretty powerful statement.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    Particularly Leigh.
    Nevertheless, Leythers never tire of whinging that they are the largest town in England without a train station.
    Their MP too.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493

    Cookie said:

    On another subject, another thing this shows is that local media isn't dead yet.
    My view - and this is blether rather than me knowing what I'm talking about - is that the MEN is more influential in GM than any of the national papers. I'm sure the same is true of the Echo on Merseyside, the Chronicle in the North East, the Yorkshire Post in Yorkshire, and so on.
    This makes me happy and slightly proud for reasons I can't quite place.

    I think Jennifer Williams on the MEN is one of the best journalists around. I wouldn't be surprised if she coordinated the Northern trainspotting campaign.
    She good, yes. Though she hasn't exactly shone out from the crowd of media mediocrity on covid.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    In the real world, people only get the train to work in London because there is no car parking available.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,827
    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Time for a bit of a tangent.

    The Netherlands is one of the countries, alongside the UK, that has been moving upwards towards the great race to the middle that we are seeing in corporate tax across the developed world.

    It's one of the most remarkable trends over the last 3 or 4 years and one that not only waters down any meaningful tax rate arbitrage between countries but also potentially renders government use of tax incentives for investment toothless.

    The NL has for a few years had a mainstream rate of around 25% (25.5% until recently), but was able to make use of a number of tools to give MNCs lower effective rates. With the exception of the innovation box pretty much all of these are no longer available due to BEPS, EU state aid challenges and a general change in the ethos of the government.

    The UK as we know is raising its main CT rate from 19% to 25%. The patent box was one of our principal innovation incentives, alongside R&D credits. The qualification rules changed following BEPS and really kicked in this year, making it harder to access.

    Meanwhile the rest of Europe is cutting rates. France will be at 25% from next year (plus a few small surcharges). Italy is now at 24% plus their IRAP which takes the rate to around 25-26%. Spain is now 25%. Belgium is now 25%. Korea is 25%. And, most remarkably after the falling through of much of the original Biden tax plan, the US is likely to remain at 21% + state taxes i.e. an effective rate of....25%. Only Germany (c.29-31% depending on location) and Japan (30.62%) remain outliers.

    And BEPS 2.0 will put a floor under even the low tax countries including the SIS (Switzerland, Ireland and Singapore). It introduces a global minimum tax from 2023 and Ireland, for example, has already undertaken to increase its mainstream rate from 12.5% to 15%. Singapore will withdraw its current tax incentive rates. Switzerland has already reformed corporate tax to give rates from the low to high teens.

    What does this mean for government use of tax to incentivise FDI? It will change massively, and already has done to some extent. There is little rate arbitrage left, and you can't go below 15%. So we are seeing governments focusing instead on direct subsidy, regulatory incentives (e.g. planning exemptions) and non-CT tax incentives on payroll tax or indirect taxes - see Switzerland's recent announcement it will drop all customs duties on industrial products.

    Interesting.

    How does that last relate to Switzerland and their EU / Single Market relationship?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    Steve Brine MP takes over the questioning and asks which other counties have problems with racism, and whether other players from other counties have been in touch?

    “I’ve had messages from people at Leicester, at Middlesex, at Nottinghamshire, so from quite a few,” says Rafiq. “Some people are still pretty scared to talk about it. The one reoccurrence was the word ‘Paki’ was used a lot.”
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    tlg86 said:

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    In the real world, people only get the train to work in London because there is no car parking available.
    Ever tried driving into central London? thought not
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    Cookie said:

    Normally on pb.com I'm just an anonymous oik on the internet who will blether any old nonsense. On this subject, I'm an anonymous oik on the internet who knows what he's talking about. I'd say in the North if it was a choice between HS2 and HS3 (or NPR, as it's more usually called) we'd plump for the latter.

    I said last night the big gain from high speed rail is taking fast trains off suburban services. There's a lot more potential to do that with NPR than HS2.

    All that said, I can think of things I'd rather see for GM than NPR. TfGM has an aspiration for a city centre metro tunnel (also, primarily, done to address capacity issues) - if we we got that instead I would happily give up NPR. I suspect the benefits would be greater and the costs less.
    I have no confidence whatsoever that this is what will happen, however.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    FPT because I took some time to go and find the data:
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    King Cole, the bit after the Western Empire falls and before the Norman Conquest (especially pre-Alfred) is not the most popular in history for the general public.

    What annoys me is every single damned documentary or drama (well, the vast majority) are fixated retelling stories of Henry VIII and Elizabeth II when (even just looking at England) there are so many more interesting and neglected events and characters to consider.

    "The Vikings" did rather well from depicting the period, and the spin off "Vikings: Valhalla" covering the later period before the Norman conquest looks promising.

    The period that seems to be lacking is the early post Roman period. In a generation or two, we abandoned roads, towns and the trappings of urban life, turning back to subsistence farming and more egalitarian social structures.
    Perhaps we can find out about the latter in person, second time around? ;)
    The Dark Ages were only dark in the sense of the abandonment of Christianity, and also literacy. It happened between 409 and 450 or so, so a couple of generations. There seems surprisingly little evidence of resistance to going back to a simpler more sustainable communitarian lifestyle once the Romans stopped enforcing the alternative.
    Yes, it was a joke.

    Abandoning Christianity is known as progress ;)
    Abandoning Christianity will not lead to secular, highly educated atheists dominating, indeed atheists globally have a lower birthrate than the religious. If Christianity declines it will be Islam that largely fills the gap, especially in Europe
    I'm not sure that's true: the fastest growing portion of the US population is the ungodly.

    But it is interesting: in religious belief, as in so many areas, we are seeing real bifurcation and the hardening of extremes. There are more atheists than ever before, and also more religious fundamentalists. A body like the Church of England seems rather outdated.
    Globally it very much is true. In 2105 33% of global births were to Christians, 31% to Muslims and 10% to the religiously unaffiliated (including atheists and agnostics).

    By 2060 on current trends 36% of global births will be to Muslims, 35% to Christians and just 9% to the religiously unaffiliated

    https://www.pewforum.org/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/.

    I do agree on your second paragraph, the fastest growth in religion globally is amongst evangelical Christians and Sunni Islam.

    The relatively liberal Church of England suits the largely secular UK but even there is in decline, the fastest growth in the Anglican church globally is in Africa where even the Anglican church is more evangelical, in the more liberal Anglican wing in the UK, Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand there is decline. Although there is an evangelical wing of the Church of England it is smaller than the liberal wing now with a handful of Anglo Catholics too
    But @HYUFD - in the 1960s, atheism was much less common in the UK than it is today. Therefore almost everyone was born to religious parents.

    And yet the proportion of atheists has continued to rise.

    That is not entirely true, there were a fair number of atheists and agnostics in the UK in the 1960s. However churchgoing has declined significantly.

    However more significant still is the decline in the UK birthrate, now below replacement level and that means that the agnostic majority currently in the UK could actually decline percentage wise by 2050 as evangelical Christians and Muslims both already in the population and those who arrive as immigrants have significantly more children per head.

    Indeed the less white the UK becomes generally the more religious it will be (with the exception of Orientals)
    Will take quite a while.

    From the ONS, latest figures, religion in GB from 2011-2018:
    image
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    In the real world, people only get the train to work in London because there is no car parking available.
    Ever tried driving into central London? thought not
    I have. It's obviously not an option for 99.9% of people who work there. But when people start to have the choice, well, the car has a habit of winning.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,742
    tlg86 said:

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    In the real world, people only get the train to work in London because there is no car parking available.
    That is not true for a lot of people. I would certainly not have driven to work on Piccadilly from Hampshire even if parking was available. The amount of traffic would put me off, for a start. And if more people drove, congestion would be far worse, if that is even conceivable.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 545

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    Yes, this did strike me as a bit of a chicken and egg comment. After all the majority of people in the North and South used to travel by horse and cart on dirt tracks.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,827
    eek said:

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    And it's also completely irrelevant to the issue here.

    Boris promised HS2 and HS3 - and is now backtracking from those commitments. Ones that helped him win the Red Wall seats in the north.
    Surely the answer to that is that create a functioning public transport system, and it will get used.

    Where that has been done, that is what happens.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    In the real world, people only get the train to work in London because there is no car parking available.
    Ever tried driving into central London? thought not
    Yeah it's not the absence of parking that's the problem, it's the sheer numbers of other people with the same idea. Cycling into central London in winter and in the rain is preferable to driving.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    A child migrant expresses his innocent eagerness to get into Poland, where he hopes to be welcomed by the kind Polish people

    https://twitter.com/kryscina_by/status/1460561927839563784?s=21
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,080
    Iraqi authorities have announced that on November 18, the first special flight from #Belarus to Iraq will evacuate Iraqi citizens from the border with Poland
    https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1460146046286405632


    ‘No way I’m going back to Iraq’: Iraqi Kurds flee to Belarus
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/15/iraqi-kurds-perilous-journey-in-belarus
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476
    TimS said:

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    Yes, this did strike me as a bit of a chicken and egg comment. After all the majority of people in the North and South used to travel by horse and cart on dirt tracks.
    Sounds like you've seen a leaked copy of the government's Northern transport plan!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 545
    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Time for a bit of a tangent.

    The Netherlands is one of the countries, alongside the UK, that has been moving upwards towards the great race to the middle that we are seeing in corporate tax across the developed world.

    It's one of the most remarkable trends over the last 3 or 4 years and one that not only waters down any meaningful tax rate arbitrage between countries but also potentially renders government use of tax incentives for investment toothless.

    The NL has for a few years had a mainstream rate of around 25% (25.5% until recently), but was able to make use of a number of tools to give MNCs lower effective rates. With the exception of the innovation box pretty much all of these are no longer available due to BEPS, EU state aid challenges and a general change in the ethos of the government.

    The UK as we know is raising its main CT rate from 19% to 25%. The patent box was one of our principal innovation incentives, alongside R&D credits. The qualification rules changed following BEPS and really kicked in this year, making it harder to access.

    Meanwhile the rest of Europe is cutting rates. France will be at 25% from next year (plus a few small surcharges). Italy is now at 24% plus their IRAP which takes the rate to around 25-26%. Spain is now 25%. Belgium is now 25%. Korea is 25%. And, most remarkably after the falling through of much of the original Biden tax plan, the US is likely to remain at 21% + state taxes i.e. an effective rate of....25%. Only Germany (c.29-31% depending on location) and Japan (30.62%) remain outliers.

    And BEPS 2.0 will put a floor under even the low tax countries including the SIS (Switzerland, Ireland and Singapore). It introduces a global minimum tax from 2023 and Ireland, for example, has already undertaken to increase its mainstream rate from 12.5% to 15%. Singapore will withdraw its current tax incentive rates. Switzerland has already reformed corporate tax to give rates from the low to high teens.

    What does this mean for government use of tax to incentivise FDI? It will change massively, and already has done to some extent. There is little rate arbitrage left, and you can't go below 15%. So we are seeing governments focusing instead on direct subsidy, regulatory incentives (e.g. planning exemptions) and non-CT tax incentives on payroll tax or indirect taxes - see Switzerland's recent announcement it will drop all customs duties on industrial products.

    Interesting.

    How does that last relate to Switzerland and their EU / Single Market relationship?
    They're partially in the single market (but on a bespoke deal rather than EEA membership) but not in the customs union. They already have zero tariffs with the EU, like the UK. So this announcement is on customs rates applying on imports from outside the bloc, e.g. from China or the USA, which is in their gift to do. But there would still be customs procedures, rules of origin etc to follow.

    Same situation as when the UK negotiates zero tariffs with 3rd countries.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    Okay, okay, I agree, the traffic is a deterrent as well as the parking. But the point remains that people only put up with working in London because it has decent public transport. It's a fallacy to assume that all those people commuting by car are desperate to switch to the train.
  • In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    A very urban viewpoint.

    Perhaps you can tell us how much improving public transport would cost do create an alternative.

    And how it would be improved for all the people living in housing in the conurbation sprawls and semi-rural areas.

    The answer is that it cannot and will not beat the flexibility and utility of car travel.

    That's the reality.

    Deal with it.
  • Unpopular said:

    I'm wondering where the YEP is on this? I have feeling they may have opposed HS2 in the past and so not joined in on this pretty powerful statement.

    Just had a quick look through the Twitter and would like to correct the record. It seems that YEP do support HS2, but they weren't in on the Trainspotting headlines. Their Editor has congratulated colleagues across the north for it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 16

    FPT because I took some time to go and find the data:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    King Cole, the bit after the Western Empire falls and before the Norman Conquest (especially pre-Alfred) is not the most popular in history for the general public.

    What annoys me is every single damned documentary or drama (well, the vast majority) are fixated retelling stories of Henry VIII and Elizabeth II when (even just looking at England) there are so many more interesting and neglected events and characters to consider.

    "The Vikings" did rather well from depicting the period, and the spin off "Vikings: Valhalla" covering the later period before the Norman conquest looks promising.

    The period that seems to be lacking is the early post Roman period. In a generation or two, we abandoned roads, towns and the trappings of urban life, turning back to subsistence farming and more egalitarian social structures.
    Perhaps we can find out about the latter in person, second time around? ;)
    The Dark Ages were only dark in the sense of the abandonment of Christianity, and also literacy. It happened between 409 and 450 or so, so a couple of generations. There seems surprisingly little evidence of resistance to going back to a simpler more sustainable communitarian lifestyle once the Romans stopped enforcing the alternative.
    Yes, it was a joke.

    Abandoning Christianity is known as progress ;)
    Abandoning Christianity will not lead to secular, highly educated atheists dominating, indeed atheists globally have a lower birthrate than the religious. If Christianity declines it will be Islam that largely fills the gap, especially in Europe
    I'm not sure that's true: the fastest growing portion of the US population is the ungodly.

    But it is interesting: in religious belief, as in so many areas, we are seeing real bifurcation and the hardening of extremes. There are more atheists than ever before, and also more religious fundamentalists. A body like the Church of England seems rather outdated.
    Globally it very much is true. In 2105 33% of global births were to Christians, 31% to Muslims and 10% to the religiously unaffiliated (including atheists and agnostics).

    By 2060 on current trends 36% of global births will be to Muslims, 35% to Christians and just 9% to the religiously unaffiliated

    https://www.pewforum.org/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/.

    I do agree on your second paragraph, the fastest growth in religion globally is amongst evangelical Christians and Sunni Islam.

    The relatively liberal Church of England suits the largely secular UK but even there is in decline, the fastest growth in the Anglican church globally is in Africa where even the Anglican church is more evangelical, in the more liberal Anglican wing in the UK, Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand there is decline. Although there is an evangelical wing of the Church of England it is smaller than the liberal wing now with a handful of Anglo Catholics too
    But @HYUFD - in the 1960s, atheism was much less common in the UK than it is today. Therefore almost everyone was born to religious parents.

    And yet the proportion of atheists has continued to rise.

    That is not entirely true, there were a fair number of atheists and agnostics in the UK in the 1960s. However churchgoing has declined significantly.

    However more significant still is the decline in the UK birthrate, now below replacement level and that means that the agnostic majority currently in the UK could actually decline percentage wise by 2050 as evangelical Christians and Muslims both already in the population and those who arrive as immigrants have significantly more children per head.

    Indeed the less white the UK becomes generally the more religious it will be (with the exception of Orientals)
    Will take quite a while.

    From the ONS, latest figures, religion in GB from 2011-2018:
    image
    Yes and as more and more Muslims from North Africa, South Asia and the Middle East (notice a slight rise on that graph already in the number of Muslims in the UK) and more evangelical Christians from Africa in the UK arrive then as I said the overall decline of the religious in the UK in the last few decades could start to reverse.

    In summary, the less white the UK becomes in turn generally the more religious the UK will start to become again (albeit we did have a fair number of Polish Catholics pre Brexit coming to the UK)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,742
    Good luck to OLB. Like him, my COVID started as a bit of a sore throat. Unlike him, all I did during the period I probably caught it was go to work (in a pretty covid-safe environment), a bit of shopping and meet with my running club (outdoors).

    Cold symptoms got worse again yesterday evening. However I slept much better, not disturbed by fever, and slept through to about 9.30.

    I now have a pulse oxymeter. It was a healthy 99 yesterday afternoon however it was 97 yesterday evening and I have just tested at 95. Hope this isn't a trend, however I don't feel breathless and haven't really been coughing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    Nigelb said:

    Iraqi authorities have announced that on November 18, the first special flight from #Belarus to Iraq will evacuate Iraqi citizens from the border with Poland
    https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1460146046286405632


    ‘No way I’m going back to Iraq’: Iraqi Kurds flee to Belarus
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/15/iraqi-kurds-perilous-journey-in-belarus

    Rather better for them now still there than under Saddam
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    Nigelb said:

    Iraqi authorities have announced that on November 18, the first special flight from #Belarus to Iraq will evacuate Iraqi citizens from the border with Poland
    https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1460146046286405632


    ‘No way I’m going back to Iraq’: Iraqi Kurds flee to Belarus
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/15/iraqi-kurds-perilous-journey-in-belarus

    That is the obvious endpoint. Lukashenko has apparently failed. Poland stood firm

    But will the Belarusians let the migrants go? Check this photo of Belarus soldiers behind the migrants. No way back.


    https://twitter.com/wasikmaciej/status/1460562575066910721?s=21
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476

    Good luck to OLB. Like him, my COVID started as a bit of a sore throat. Unlike him, all I did during the period I probably caught it was go to work (in a pretty covid-safe environment), a bit of shopping and meet with my running club (outdoors).

    Cold symptoms got worse again yesterday evening. However I slept much better, not disturbed by fever, and slept through to about 9.30.

    I now have a pulse oxymeter. It was a healthy 99 yesterday afternoon however it was 97 yesterday evening and I have just tested at 95. Hope this isn't a trend, however I don't feel breathless and haven't really been coughing.

    Wishing you (and me) a speedy recovery!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,320
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sinn Fein VI at 37% in the Republic of Ireland: a record high.

    SF also leading VI in Northern Ireland. Irish politics in both north and south are undergoing dramatic change.

    Completely ignoring the fact the governing FF and FG combined are on 41% in the latest Irish poll still comfortably ahead of SF.

    Michael Martin has said he's open to a FF/SF coalition after the next election. He probably regrets not doing it after the last one.
    Franco’s tank commander completely ignoring facts = good

    Sane, rational human beings completely ignoring facts = bad
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,494

    The Indie has it in for the PM's Dad; like son, like father?
    'Two women — including Tory MP Caroline Nokes — have accused Boris Johnson’s father Stanley of inappropriately touching them.

    Ms Nokes, who is the chair of the parliamentary women and equalities committee, said the 81-year-old smacked her “on the backside about as hard as he could” during a party conference in 2003.

    The elder Mr Johnson declined to comment about her allegation made to Sky News, other than to say he has “no recollection of Caroline Nokes at all”.'

    Apparently he smacked her hard on the bum and said, "oh, Romsey, you've got a lovely seat." Romsey being her constituency.

    It doesn't sound sexual assault territory, and indeed many will find it absolutely trivial and even borderline funny, but I just don't understand the brain chemistry of blokes who behave like this. Where does it come from?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 545

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    A very urban viewpoint.

    Perhaps you can tell us how much improving public transport would cost do create an alternative.

    And how it would be improved for all the people living in housing in the conurbation sprawls and semi-rural areas.

    The answer is that it cannot and will not beat the flexibility and utility of car travel.

    That's the reality.

    Deal with it.
    Likewise to summarise the whole of the North as rural and car driving is a generalisation too. Large swathes of South and West Yorks are pretty urban. Large swathes of the South are suburban or rural too. People in Berks and Surrey for example commute by car if they work in Woking or Reading, and by train if they work in London.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sinn Fein VI at 37% in the Republic of Ireland: a record high.

    SF also leading VI in Northern Ireland. Irish politics in both north and south are undergoing dramatic change.

    Completely ignoring the fact the governing FF and FG combined are on 41% in the latest Irish poll still comfortably ahead of SF.

    Michael Martin has said he's open to a FF/SF coalition after the next election. He probably regrets not doing it after the last one.
    Franco’s tank commander completely ignoring facts = good

    Sane, rational human beings completely ignoring facts = bad
    “That said, at the moment, I think Sinn Féin’s policy platform on a range of issues would make it very difficult for us to coalesce with them.”
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-féin-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476
    Leon said:

    A child migrant expresses his innocent eagerness to get into Poland, where he hopes to be welcomed by the kind Polish people

    https://twitter.com/kryscina_by/status/1460561927839563784?s=21

    He’s vulnerable, frightened and scared. He’s a child. Bless him.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,101
    edited November 16
    kinabalu said:

    The Indie has it in for the PM's Dad; like son, like father?
    'Two women — including Tory MP Caroline Nokes — have accused Boris Johnson’s father Stanley of inappropriately touching them.

    Ms Nokes, who is the chair of the parliamentary women and equalities committee, said the 81-year-old smacked her “on the backside about as hard as he could” during a party conference in 2003.

    The elder Mr Johnson declined to comment about her allegation made to Sky News, other than to say he has “no recollection of Caroline Nokes at all”.'

    Apparently he smacked her hard on the bum and said, "oh, Romsey, you've got a lovely seat." Romsey being her constituency.

    It doesn't sound sexual assault territory, and indeed many will find it absolutely trivial and even borderline funny, but I just don't understand the brain chemistry of blokes who behave like this. Where does it come from?
    You don't think smacking someone on the bottom and making sexual comments about it is sexual assault? If true it absolutely is.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,320
    edited November 16
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sinn Fein VI at 37% in the Republic of Ireland: a record high.

    SF also leading VI in Northern Ireland. Irish politics in both north and south are undergoing dramatic change.

    Completely ignoring the fact the governing FF and FG combined are on 41% in the latest Irish poll still comfortably ahead of SF.

    Michael Martin has said he's open to a FF/SF coalition after the next election. He probably regrets not doing it after the last one.
    Franco’s tank commander completely ignoring facts = good

    Sane, rational human beings completely ignoring facts = bad
    “That said, at the moment, I think Sinn Féin’s policy platform on a range of issues would make it very difficult for us to coalesce with them.”
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-féin-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483
    And? All parties say things like that prior to coalition talks. Bog standard negotiation strategy. You never want to be a pushover.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,864

    Cookie said:

    On another subject, another thing this shows is that local media isn't dead yet.
    My view - and this is blether rather than me knowing what I'm talking about - is that the MEN is more influential in GM than any of the national papers. I'm sure the same is true of the Echo on Merseyside, the Chronicle in the North East, the Yorkshire Post in Yorkshire, and so on.
    This makes me happy and slightly proud for reasons I can't quite place.

    I think Jennifer Williams on the MEN is one of the best journalists around. I wouldn't be surprised if she coordinated the Northern trainspotting campaign.
    Absolutely at the top of the game, Al. Whenever there's a big story coming out of the North she's usually behind it at the moment. If only the London media weren't so slavishly addicted to rewriting government press releases we might actually have a media class that makes the country better.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476
    kinabalu said:

    The Indie has it in for the PM's Dad; like son, like father?
    'Two women — including Tory MP Caroline Nokes — have accused Boris Johnson’s father Stanley of inappropriately touching them.

    Ms Nokes, who is the chair of the parliamentary women and equalities committee, said the 81-year-old smacked her “on the backside about as hard as he could” during a party conference in 2003.

    The elder Mr Johnson declined to comment about her allegation made to Sky News, other than to say he has “no recollection of Caroline Nokes at all”.'

    Apparently he smacked her hard on the bum and said, "oh, Romsey, you've got a lovely seat." Romsey being her constituency.

    It doesn't sound sexual assault territory, and indeed many will find it absolutely trivial and even borderline funny, but I just don't understand the brain chemistry of blokes who behave like this. Where does it come from?
    Where does it come from? A lifetime of privilege, a sense of impunity and a lack of respect for women. Aka the patriarchy.
    Ideally he would have been punched in the face the first time he did it and would have learned to stop. Perhaps it's not too late to start his training.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,742

    Cookie said:

    On another subject, another thing this shows is that local media isn't dead yet.
    My view - and this is blether rather than me knowing what I'm talking about - is that the MEN is more influential in GM than any of the national papers. I'm sure the same is true of the Echo on Merseyside, the Chronicle in the North East, the Yorkshire Post in Yorkshire, and so on.
    This makes me happy and slightly proud for reasons I can't quite place.

    I think Jennifer Williams on the MEN is one of the best journalists around. I wouldn't be surprised if she coordinated the Northern trainspotting campaign.
    I assumed the newspapers were probably all in the same ownership and already have arrangements for sharing content.
  • The reports on YCCC are awful, but so is the reporting. We do not need to have Paki and Monkey etc bleeped out - lets hear it. Its not being used as an abuse term now, its being used to call out the racists. Lets hear it so that we can shame them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,494

    The reports of YCCC are awfu

    kinabalu said:

    The Indie has it in for the PM's Dad; like son, like father?
    'Two women — including Tory MP Caroline Nokes — have accused Boris Johnson’s father Stanley of inappropriately touching them.

    Ms Nokes, who is the chair of the parliamentary women and equalities committee, said the 81-year-old smacked her “on the backside about as hard as he could” during a party conference in 2003.

    The elder Mr Johnson declined to comment about her allegation made to Sky News, other than to say he has “no recollection of Caroline Nokes at all”.'

    Apparently he smacked her hard on the bum and said, "oh, Romsey, you've got a lovely seat." Romsey being her constituency.

    It doesn't sound sexual assault territory, and indeed many will find it absolutely trivial and even borderline funny, but I just don't understand the brain chemistry of blokes who behave like this. Where does it come from?
    You don't think smacking someone on the bottom and making sexual comments about it is sexual assault? If true it absolutely is.
    I mean legally. I wasn't there but I doubt it'd meet the threshold for a charge.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Rentool, it's good that it's being reported accurately. That's a racist term, but the 'little monkey' or suchlike mentioned elsewhere can often be used in entirely innocent ways. When the media simply refuse to report what's actually been said the audience has no idea if it's a ridiculous overreaction or a genuine case of racism.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,080
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    A child migrant expresses his innocent eagerness to get into Poland, where he hopes to be welcomed by the kind Polish people

    https://twitter.com/kryscina_by/status/1460561927839563784?s=21

    He’s vulnerable, frightened and scared. He’s a child. Bless him.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/belarus-eu-poland-migrants-refugees-border/620700/
    ...the armored cars rumbling past wooden houses offer nothing to local residents, nothing to help them cope with the surreal situation they find themselves in. The Polish government’s official policy is that no one gets through, so nothing has to be done. In fact, almost everyone in the area has encountered starving, disoriented people from all kinds of places—Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon—struggling across their fields and gardens, hiding behind trees. Sometimes they have become too weak to walk, or are too frightened to ask for help. How are they supposed to react? Wappa told me that she simply finds it impossible to do nothing: “If I know that someone is dying outside my fence, outside my garden, my town … I have no option. I can’t allow someone to die of hunger, thirst, or cold right next to me.” Besides, she said, “it’s not normal that saving someone’s life might be a crime.”..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 16

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sinn Fein VI at 37% in the Republic of Ireland: a record high.

    SF also leading VI in Northern Ireland. Irish politics in both north and south are undergoing dramatic change.

    Completely ignoring the fact the governing FF and FG combined are on 41% in the latest Irish poll still comfortably ahead of SF.

    Michael Martin has said he's open to a FF/SF coalition after the next election. He probably regrets not doing it after the last one.
    Franco’s tank commander completely ignoring facts = good

    Sane, rational human beings completely ignoring facts = bad
    “That said, at the moment, I think Sinn Féin’s policy platform on a range of issues would make it very difficult for us to coalesce with them.”
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-féin-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483
    And? All parties say things like that prior to coalition talks. Bog standard negotiation strategy. You never want to be a pushover.
    Yes but they went into government with FG not SF for a reason.

    In any case as I already said FF and FG both grew out of SF anyway, all parties in the Republic are products of the Irish War of Independence. However on economics FF and FG are closer together than they are with SF even if FF is slightly less economically neoliberal than FG and FF is also more socially conservative than SF, indeed more socially conservative than FG too
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,864
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    From the Guardian blog:

    “Rooty is a good man, he’s never engaged in racist language,” says Rafiq. “I found [his comments] hurtful. He was Gary’s flatmate. He was involved in social nights out during which I was called a Paki. He might not remember [the incidents of racism] but it shows how normal it was that even a good man like him doesn’t see it for what it is.”

    Does Root keep the England captaincy?

    One of my white friends always wonders why with so much Indian cricketing talent in England and Wales so few Indian players go professional and here we have the answer. I feel sorry for all of the Pakistani people who have forged this path.
    I heard a paper reviewer say how shocked they were that this sort of thing was going on in cricket. I'm not. Cricket has a dick-ish culture in it that can make it not a particularly pleasant environment to be.
    Indeed, cricket is "lad banter culture" the sport. Anyone who has played it at any serious amateur or professional level will know this. At uni I quit in my second year because it was obvious that the captain was pitting the Indians against the Pakistanis just to get a rise out of us, for the bants.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,975

    Cookie said:

    On another subject, another thing this shows is that local media isn't dead yet.
    My view - and this is blether rather than me knowing what I'm talking about - is that the MEN is more influential in GM than any of the national papers. I'm sure the same is true of the Echo on Merseyside, the Chronicle in the North East, the Yorkshire Post in Yorkshire, and so on.
    This makes me happy and slightly proud for reasons I can't quite place.

    I think Jennifer Williams on the MEN is one of the best journalists around. I wouldn't be surprised if she coordinated the Northern trainspotting campaign.
    I assumed the newspapers were probably all in the same ownership and already have arrangements for sharing content.
    No they are not which is what makes this more significant
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085

    The reports on YCCC are awful, but so is the reporting. We do not need to have Paki and Monkey etc bleeped out - lets hear it. Its not being used as an abuse term now, its being used to call out the racists. Lets hear it so that we can shame them.

    Naive. People have lost careers for using the n word, even when in context - eg to show how the word was used by someone else. That can now get you fired and cancelled

    How is anyone to know if and when this arbitrary rule will be extended to the P word and beyond? They can’t. So they are understandably super cautious

    I recall predicting many years ago that one day racist terms would be seen as much more toxic and offensive than swear words in the 1950s

    And so it is. Perhaps that is a good thing, but my inner libertarian still thinks “they are just words, however stupid and ugly”



  • CiceroCicero Posts: 867
    HYUFD said:

    FPT because I took some time to go and find the data:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    King Cole, the bit after the Western Empire falls and before the Norman Conquest (especially pre-Alfred) is not the most popular in history for the general public.

    What annoys me is every single damned documentary or drama (well, the vast majority) are fixated retelling stories of Henry VIII and Elizabeth II when (even just looking at England) there are so many more interesting and neglected events and characters to consider.

    "The Vikings" did rather well from depicting the period, and the spin off "Vikings: Valhalla" covering the later period before the Norman conquest looks promising.

    The period that seems to be lacking is the early post Roman period. In a generation or two, we abandoned roads, towns and the trappings of urban life, turning back to subsistence farming and more egalitarian social structures.
    Perhaps we can find out about the latter in person, second time around? ;)
    The Dark Ages were only dark in the sense of the abandonment of Christianity, and also literacy. It happened between 409 and 450 or so, so a couple of generations. There seems surprisingly little evidence of resistance to going back to a simpler more sustainable communitarian lifestyle once the Romans stopped enforcing the alternative.
    Yes, it was a joke.

    Abandoning Christianity is known as progress ;)
    Abandoning Christianity will not lead to secular, highly educated atheists dominating, indeed atheists globally have a lower birthrate than the religious. If Christianity declines it will be Islam that largely fills the gap, especially in Europe
    I'm not sure that's true: the fastest growing portion of the US population is the ungodly.

    But it is interesting: in religious belief, as in so many areas, we are seeing real bifurcation and the hardening of extremes. There are more atheists than ever before, and also more religious fundamentalists. A body like the Church of England seems rather outdated.
    Globally it very much is true. In 2105 33% of global births were to Christians, 31% to Muslims and 10% to the religiously unaffiliated (including atheists and agnostics).

    By 2060 on current trends 36% of global births will be to Muslims, 35% to Christians and just 9% to the religiously unaffiliated

    https://www.pewforum.org/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/.

    I do agree on your second paragraph, the fastest growth in religion globally is amongst evangelical Christians and Sunni Islam.

    The relatively liberal Church of England suits the largely secular UK but even there is in decline, the fastest growth in the Anglican church globally is in Africa where even the Anglican church is more evangelical, in the more liberal Anglican wing in the UK, Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand there is decline. Although there is an evangelical wing of the Church of England it is smaller than the liberal wing now with a handful of Anglo Catholics too
    But @HYUFD - in the 1960s, atheism was much less common in the UK than it is today. Therefore almost everyone was born to religious parents.

    And yet the proportion of atheists has continued to rise.

    That is not entirely true, there were a fair number of atheists and agnostics in the UK in the 1960s. However churchgoing has declined significantly.

    However more significant still is the decline in the UK birthrate, now below replacement level and that means that the agnostic majority currently in the UK could actually decline percentage wise by 2050 as evangelical Christians and Muslims both already in the population and those who arrive as immigrants have significantly more children per head.

    Indeed the less white the UK becomes generally the more religious it will be (with the exception of Orientals)
    Will take quite a while.

    From the ONS, latest figures, religion in GB from 2011-2018:
    image
    Yes and as more and more Muslims from North Africa, South Asia and the Middle East (notice a slight rise on that graph already in the number of Muslims in the UK) and more evangelical Christians from Africa in the UK arrive then as I said the overall decline of the religious in the UK in the last few decades could start to reverse.

    In summary, the less white the UK becomes in turn generally the more religious the UK will start to become again (albeit we did have a fair number of Polish Catholics pre Brexit coming to the UK)
    Your assertions are, as usual, not back by the data. In a generally increasingly secular society even those groups who are observantly religious have also demonstrated an overall trend towards diminishing levels of religious activity. There is no evidence at all of any change in the general trend towards lower religious belief or activity.

    Whether that is a good or bad thing is a matter of opinion, but the facts are the facts.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    A child migrant expresses his innocent eagerness to get into Poland, where he hopes to be welcomed by the kind Polish people

    https://twitter.com/kryscina_by/status/1460561927839563784?s=21

    He’s vulnerable, frightened and scared. He’s a child. Bless him.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/belarus-eu-poland-migrants-refugees-border/620700/
    ...the armored cars rumbling past wooden houses offer nothing to local residents, nothing to help them cope with the surreal situation they find themselves in. The Polish government’s official policy is that no one gets through, so nothing has to be done. In fact, almost everyone in the area has encountered starving, disoriented people from all kinds of places—Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon—struggling across their fields and gardens, hiding behind trees. Sometimes they have become too weak to walk, or are too frightened to ask for help. How are they supposed to react? Wappa told me that she simply finds it impossible to do nothing: “If I know that someone is dying outside my fence, outside my garden, my town … I have no option. I can’t allow someone to die of hunger, thirst, or cold right next to me.” Besides, she said, “it’s not normal that saving someone’s life might be a crime.”..
    Very like nazi Germany, where ordinary Germans used to try to give food and drink to the people in the cattle trucks
  • Leon said:

    The reports on YCCC are awful, but so is the reporting. We do not need to have Paki and Monkey etc bleeped out - lets hear it. Its not being used as an abuse term now, its being used to call out the racists. Lets hear it so that we can shame them.

    Naive. People have lost careers for using the n word, even when in context - eg to show how the word was used by someone else. That can now get you fired and cancelled

    How is anyone to know if and when this arbitrary rule will be extended to the P word and beyond? They can’t. So they are understandably super cautious

    I recall predicting many years ago that one day racist terms would be seen as much more toxic and offensive than swear words in the 1950s

    And so it is. Perhaps that is a good thing, but my inner libertarian still thinks “they are just words, however stupid and ugly”
    Perhaps it is naive. I would hope that we can all accept the idea that we need to stamp this out and you can't do that by hiding it. YCCC tried to insist it was just banter - it wasn't. This stuff is powerful when applied to be hurtful.

    Mr Rafiq is testifying to the committee and his powerful descriptions of the abuse suffered and its impact is neutered by constantly beeping it out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,494

    kinabalu said:

    The Indie has it in for the PM's Dad; like son, like father?
    'Two women — including Tory MP Caroline Nokes — have accused Boris Johnson’s father Stanley of inappropriately touching them.

    Ms Nokes, who is the chair of the parliamentary women and equalities committee, said the 81-year-old smacked her “on the backside about as hard as he could” during a party conference in 2003.

    The elder Mr Johnson declined to comment about her allegation made to Sky News, other than to say he has “no recollection of Caroline Nokes at all”.'

    Apparently he smacked her hard on the bum and said, "oh, Romsey, you've got a lovely seat." Romsey being her constituency.

    It doesn't sound sexual assault territory, and indeed many will find it absolutely trivial and even borderline funny, but I just don't understand the brain chemistry of blokes who behave like this. Where does it come from?
    Where does it come from? A lifetime of privilege, a sense of impunity and a lack of respect for women. Aka the patriarchy.
    Ideally he would have been punched in the face the first time he did it and would have learned to stop. Perhaps it's not too late to start his training.
    Massive lack of respect, yes. And in particular this idea that because you're a little bit special you're being very amusing and 'rogueish' with stuff that most would call utterly crass. Where do we see that, right now, in a high profile political leadership position? Hmm, let me think.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358

    The Indie has it in for the PM's Dad; like son, like father?
    'Two women — including Tory MP Caroline Nokes — have accused Boris Johnson’s father Stanley of inappropriately touching them.

    Ms Nokes, who is the chair of the parliamentary women and equalities committee, said the 81-year-old smacked her “on the backside about as hard as he could” during a party conference in 2003.

    The elder Mr Johnson declined to comment about her allegation made to Sky News, other than to say he has “no recollection of Caroline Nokes at all”.'

    Perhaps if she turned her back on him and bent over to sit down it would jog his memory?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,918

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sinn Fein VI at 37% in the Republic of Ireland: a record high.

    SF also leading VI in Northern Ireland. Irish politics in both north and south are undergoing dramatic change.

    Completely ignoring the fact the governing FF and FG combined are on 41% in the latest Irish poll still comfortably ahead of SF.

    Michael Martin has said he's open to a FF/SF coalition after the next election. He probably regrets not doing it after the last one.
    Franco’s tank commander completely ignoring facts = good

    Sane, rational human beings completely ignoring facts = bad
    “That said, at the moment, I think Sinn Féin’s policy platform on a range of issues would make it very difficult for us to coalesce with them.”
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-féin-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483
    And? All parties say things like that prior to coalition talks. Bog standard negotiation strategy. You never want to be a pushover.
    It's quite likely FF will be the junior partner in an SF led coalition in 2025.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811
    Has the BoE told the govt it is going to hike interest rates through the roof, and the govt has had another look at the cost of borrowing for all this stuff? And Rishi has teamed up with the BoE to undermine Johnson? I just fundamentally do not see what Johnson is up to. He dreamed of bridging the Irish sea, and now can't afford a piddling rail link Manchester-Leeds?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632
    We could build CrossRail but not Northern rail.

    It sticks.

    Absolutely stinks.

    Hopefully there will be electoral damage for Johnson in those new northern marginals.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    A child migrant expresses his innocent eagerness to get into Poland, where he hopes to be welcomed by the kind Polish people

    https://twitter.com/kryscina_by/status/1460561927839563784?s=21

    He’s vulnerable, frightened and scared. He’s a child. Bless him.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/belarus-eu-poland-migrants-refugees-border/620700/
    ...the armored cars rumbling past wooden houses offer nothing to local residents, nothing to help them cope with the surreal situation they find themselves in. The Polish government’s official policy is that no one gets through, so nothing has to be done. In fact, almost everyone in the area has encountered starving, disoriented people from all kinds of places—Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon—struggling across their fields and gardens, hiding behind trees. Sometimes they have become too weak to walk, or are too frightened to ask for help. How are they supposed to react? Wappa told me that she simply finds it impossible to do nothing: “If I know that someone is dying outside my fence, outside my garden, my town … I have no option. I can’t allow someone to die of hunger, thirst, or cold right next to me.” Besides, she said, “it’s not normal that saving someone’s life might be a crime.”..
    Very like nazi Germany, where ordinary Germans used to try to give food and drink to the people in the cattle trucks
    Godwin

    Also, a crass comparison. Poland, for all its coarse politics, is nothing close to Nazi Germany

    That is another great piece by Anne Applebaum however. She’s a great writer. Fascinating that 9000 of these migrants have already made it to Germany. How many of them will push on to Calais?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724

    We could build CrossRail but not Northern rail.

    It sticks.

    Absolutely stinks.

    Hopefully there will be electoral damage for Johnson in those new northern marginals.

    We did build Crossrail - but it isn't working yet!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,578

    I'm glad I stopped playing cricket aged 14.

    But went on to support a racist club for many years after?
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    IshmaelZ said:

    Has the BoE told the govt it is going to hike interest rates through the roof, and the govt has had another look at the cost of borrowing for all this stuff? And Rishi has teamed up with the BoE to undermine Johnson? I just fundamentally do not see what Johnson is up to. He dreamed of bridging the Irish sea, and now can't afford a piddling rail link Manchester-Leeds?

    It can't have done - most of the markets were expecting interest rates to return to 0.25% earlier this month and that lost on a wider margin than anyone expected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 16
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sinn Fein VI at 37% in the Republic of Ireland: a record high.

    SF also leading VI in Northern Ireland. Irish politics in both north and south are undergoing dramatic change.

    Completely ignoring the fact the governing FF and FG combined are on 41% in the latest Irish poll still comfortably ahead of SF.

    Michael Martin has said he's open to a FF/SF coalition after the next election. He probably regrets not doing it after the last one.
    Franco’s tank commander completely ignoring facts = good

    Sane, rational human beings completely ignoring facts = bad
    “That said, at the moment, I think Sinn Féin’s policy platform on a range of issues would make it very difficult for us to coalesce with them.”
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-féin-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483
    And? All parties say things like that prior to coalition talks. Bog standard negotiation strategy. You never want to be a pushover.
    It's quite likely FF will be the junior partner in an SF led coalition in 2025.
    Highly unlikely as that would largely kill off FF.

    Most FF voters would go to FG in such a scenario, leaving FG and SF as by far the 2 largest parties with FG as the main party of the centre right and SF the main party of the left.

    FF doing a deal with SF would be as bad for FF as the LDs doing a deal with the Tories was for the LDs. The only benefit for FF is they would become effective kingmakers in Irish politics between FG and SF going forward but they would be a far smaller party than they were
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,946
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/16/stanley-johnson-accused-of-inappropriately-touching-tory-mp

    The prime minister’s father, Stanley Johnson, has been accused of inappropriately touching a former cabinet minister as well as a senior political journalist.

    Not impressed. For sure, report the story - and it's very much of interest to hear what Tory Party conferences used to be like (I hope they aren't like that now) - but saying "PM's dad..." is pretty disgraceful. It doesn't make the story any more significant.

    Exactly! Where's Guido's scoop about the Shadow Home Secretary writing too many letters to the HoC authorities about Tory sleaze? I've scoured the papers and can't find it anywhere
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    New: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he "must take my share of responsibility" for the Paterson "mistake". He says he encouraged the PM to back the Leadsom amendment.

    (NB thanks to Christopher Chope the bit about it being reversed didn't work out that way) https://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2021/11/the-moggcast-the-paterson-aftermath-rees-mogg-backs-extending-the-right-of-recall-by-making-it-broader-and-higher.html https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1460571688786182150/photo/1
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Indie has it in for the PM's Dad; like son, like father?
    'Two women — including Tory MP Caroline Nokes — have accused Boris Johnson’s father Stanley of inappropriately touching them.

    Ms Nokes, who is the chair of the parliamentary women and equalities committee, said the 81-year-old smacked her “on the backside about as hard as he could” during a party conference in 2003.

    The elder Mr Johnson declined to comment about her allegation made to Sky News, other than to say he has “no recollection of Caroline Nokes at all”.'

    Apparently he smacked her hard on the bum and said, "oh, Romsey, you've got a lovely seat." Romsey being her constituency.

    It doesn't sound sexual assault territory, and indeed many will find it absolutely trivial and even borderline funny, but I just don't understand the brain chemistry of blokes who behave like this. Where does it come from?
    Where does it come from? A lifetime of privilege, a sense of impunity and a lack of respect for women. Aka the patriarchy.
    Ideally he would have been punched in the face the first time he did it and would have learned to stop. Perhaps it's not too late to start his training.
    Massive lack of respect, yes. And in particular this idea that because you're a little bit special you're being very amusing and 'rogueish' with stuff that most would call utterly crass. Where do we see that, right now, in a high profile political leadership position? Hmm, let me think.
    🌳<-->🍏
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,494
    Leon said:

    The reports on YCCC are awful, but so is the reporting. We do not need to have Paki and Monkey etc bleeped out - lets hear it. Its not being used as an abuse term now, its being used to call out the racists. Lets hear it so that we can shame them.

    Naive. People have lost careers for using the n word, even when in context - eg to show how the word was used by someone else. That can now get you fired and cancelled

    How is anyone to know if and when this arbitrary rule will be extended to the P word and beyond? They can’t. So they are understandably super cautious

    I recall predicting many years ago that one day racist terms would be seen as much more toxic and offensive than swear words in the 1950s

    And so it is. Perhaps that is a good thing, but my inner libertarian still thinks “they are just words, however stupid and ugly”
    I don't see a binary distinction between words and actions. Words are the result of an action - the action of writing or speaking. And this action, the writing or speaking of words, can do real damage. It can do just as much damage as other types of actions, eg punching and slapping, sometimes more.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Has the BoE told the govt it is going to hike interest rates through the roof, and the govt has had another look at the cost of borrowing for all this stuff? And Rishi has teamed up with the BoE to undermine Johnson? I just fundamentally do not see what Johnson is up to. He dreamed of bridging the Irish sea, and now can't afford a piddling rail link Manchester-Leeds?

    It can't have done - most of the markets were expecting interest rates to return to 0.25% earlier this month and that lost on a wider margin than anyone expected.
    He wanted to make MPs' flesh creep yesterday

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/15/andrew-bailey-incredibly-uneasy-surge-inflation/

    "Mr Bailey voted to hold interest rates at 0.1pc at this month’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), but called the decision “a very close call”."
  • pingping Posts: 1,421
    Gas prices back on the up
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,241
    tlg86 said:

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car.

    This is especially so in the constituencies that the Conservatives have or could win.

    In the real world the vast majority of people in the North travel by car, because public transport is so crap that there's little alternative.
    In the real world, people only get the train to work in London because there is no car parking available.
    If you try to drive into London during rush hour, it will take you a long, long time.
This discussion has been closed.