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The Tory Sleaze narrative is not going away – politicalbetting.com

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  • dr_spyn said:

    Times now listing actions of MP for Salop.

    Link please.
    How about the Mail

    https://twitter.com/pimlicat/status/1458340443071127562?s=21
    Thanks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,187
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    A statement from Dodds on Cox.

    Responding to his statement, she added: "We have it in black and white.

    "The Conservatives not only knew that Geoffrey Cox was jetting off to defend a Caribbean tax haven, they gave him the green light to vote by proxy while he was there.

    "There really is one rule for senior Tories and another rule for everyone else."


    What rule is it that only applies to him and senior Tories and not to others?

    I saw on Twitter, will have to dig it out, that the remote voting was solely designed to allow MPs to not attend because of Covid-19, that the other standing orders of the House remained regarding voting/pairing etc.

    So if he was out of the country for non governmental/parliamentary business he should have asked for a pair (something the opposition may not have granted if they knew the reasons for it.)
    As a lawyer, do you often construe statutes and contracts according to what they were "intended" to achieve?
    Should MPs really conduct their affairs as if they're in a bitter contractual dispute ?!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    edited November 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    A statement from Dodds on Cox.

    Responding to his statement, she added: "We have it in black and white.

    "The Conservatives not only knew that Geoffrey Cox was jetting off to defend a Caribbean tax haven, they gave him the green light to vote by proxy while he was there.

    "There really is one rule for senior Tories and another rule for everyone else."


    What rule is it that only applies to him and senior Tories and not to others?

    I saw on Twitter, will have to dig it out, that the remote voting was solely designed to allow MPs to not attend because of Covid-19, that the other standing orders of the House remained regarding voting/pairing etc.

    So if he was out of the country for non governmental/parliamentary business he should have asked for a pair (something the opposition may not have granted if they knew the reasons for it.)
    As a lawyer, do you often construe statutes and contracts according to what they were "intended" to achieve?
    Dealing with the SEC on a regular basis that's exactly what I have to do.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Think I'd almost rather Kane stayed in, he's never going to win the match on his own. Anyway nice chance to get them feeling pressure, not the longest batting line up and both stars gone already.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Looks somewhat better for England now!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Two down, that was a silly attempt to hook the ball over. England definitely favourites.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    A statement from Dodds on Cox.

    Responding to his statement, she added: "We have it in black and white.

    "The Conservatives not only knew that Geoffrey Cox was jetting off to defend a Caribbean tax haven, they gave him the green light to vote by proxy while he was there.

    "There really is one rule for senior Tories and another rule for everyone else."


    What rule is it that only applies to him and senior Tories and not to others?

    I saw on Twitter, will have to dig it out, that the remote voting was solely designed to allow MPs to not attend because of Covid-19, that the other standing orders of the House remained regarding voting/pairing etc.

    So if he was out of the country for non governmental/parliamentary business he should have asked for a pair (something the opposition may not have granted if they knew the reasons for it.)
    It wasn't just MPs self-isolating was it? I thought it was a more general provision that let them vote remotely.
    It was designed to allow ensure social distancing, not to allow MPs to decamp overseas.
    Cox is just pointing out he’s in a completely different class to everyone else, though.
    Top social distancing,
    My wife can beat that. When the pandemic started last Feb she was atop Kilimanjaro.
    I had to make do with Inverness.
    The Kilimanjaro of the north.
  • Wicket maiden is pretty special in a world cup semi final
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Wicket maiden from Woakes, fantastic over.



  • @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Sandpit said:

    Two down, that was a silly attempt to hook the ball over. England definitely favourites.

    Are you there?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799
    England cases still down WoW despite schools being open, that's the effect of having that additional R budget available. Even if cases fall more slowly than when they were closed, we're still going to see falling cases over the next few weeks and then very, very big drops over the Xmas holidays.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    There's been a steady downward trend for nearly a month now. And the same observation applies as has done for a long time: nobody cares about loads of cases picked up through obsessional mass screening of schoolchildren.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited November 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Two down, that was a silly attempt to hook the ball over. England definitely favourites.

    Are you there?
    Sadly not tonight. Watching on telly with everyone else!

    Annoyed again at all the empty seats, for a match which was “sold out” weeks ago.
  • Devastating news, the architect of Liverpool's recent success is leaving at the end of the season.

    https://twitter.com/LFC/status/1458464071603441672
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Two down, that was a silly attempt to hook the ball over. England definitely favourites.

    Are you there?
    Sadly not tonight. Watching on telly with everyone else!

    Annoyed again at all the empty seats, for a match which was “sold out” weeks ago.
    Take you’ve got tickets for the final?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,187
    Covid cases like a game of Brucie's play your cards right.

    England cases higher or lower than 30,166 tommorow ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Since it's impossible to live on my lecturer's income, which is somewhat lower than an MP's, I will be forced to start selling A grades to students. The only way to stop me to is to immediately double my salary. I'm sure everyone will agree this is a reasonable position

    https://twitter.com/james_e_baldwin/status/1458365595221647361

    Well, errr, is not that what has happened?

    The proportion of e.g., firsts and 2.1s has increased dramatically since the introduction of student fees.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    Much better than yesterday and 18th day of falls in a row for England.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    England only:
    Last Wednesday (by date reported): 34,317
    This Wednesday (by date reported): 31,541- down 8% still.


  • Devastating news, the architect of Liverpool's recent success is leaving at the end of the season.

    https://twitter.com/LFC/status/1458464071603441672

    I'll tell you honestly, I would love it if West Ham finish the season above Liverpool. Love it!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    Like with Trump, if people think you are "on their side", you can get away with an awful lot.

    However, when things start to turn, you don't have any reserve of goodwill to fall back on to. That is the risk for the Conservative Party - that things turn negatively, and then a number of voters suddenly decide that they don't like your previous behaviour.

    Right now, we have the post Covid boom to boost the fortunes of the Conservative Party. How will that end? Will it be gradual slowing of the economy around full employment (which would be great), or will inflation shoot up, necessitating rising interest rates and a hard landing?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    pigeon said:

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    There's been a steady downward trend for nearly a month now. And the same observation applies as has done for a long time: nobody cares about loads of cases picked up through obsessional mass screening of schoolchildren.
    That's untrue on every level. Until very recently the real daily figure was almost certainly close to 100,000 (ZOE).

    I don't know anyone who doesn't care about the situation here, which remains precarious.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Although you could argue that all five FAILED because the Iranian regime is keeping her prisoner as a bargaining chip for the money they claim we owe. We are not paying, sadly they are not releasing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Two down, that was a silly attempt to hook the ball over. England definitely favourites.

    Are you there?
    Sadly not tonight. Watching on telly with everyone else!

    Annoyed again at all the empty seats, for a match which was “sold out” weeks ago.
    Take you’ve got tickets for the final?
    Not unless you know where I can get some?

    I prioritised the England games when they went on sale, and by the time I got down the list to India v Pakistan, the semis and the final, they were all sold out.

    Because it’s the World Cup, there’s not that much of a public sale, with a lot of tickets reserved for national associations and sponsors. The tournament was originally to be held in India, so a lot of the sponsors are Indian companies who can’t easily fly a plane load of competition winners to a different country, in the same way they could if it were at home. Ditto with all the national associations, many of whom couldn’t attend for covid-related reasons.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited November 2021
    maaarsh said:

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    Much better than yesterday and 18th day of falls in a row for England.
    Yes, England figures seem to be fine. Seems Scotland and NI are propping the total up.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    England only:
    Last Wednesday (by date reported): 34,317
    This Wednesday (by date reported): 31,541- down 8% still.


    We have to remember we have no restrictions and cases are still falling. Anecdotally cases seem to be "filling in the gaps" of those who haven't had it. Friend of my son's (Y4) tested positive this week despite his Dad having Covid a couple of months ago. Can't be many secondary school kids who have yet to be exposed to Covid.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    pigeon said:

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    There's been a steady downward trend for nearly a month now. And the same observation applies as has done for a long time: nobody cares about loads of cases picked up through obsessional mass screening of schoolchildren.
    Unfortunately some people do care about that. I do wish the NHS would stop with this 4pm gloom-fest.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    ZOE estimate the current figure around 72,000 and the graphs still look precarious.

    A lot depends on boosters now. We're starting to see growing infections amongst those double jabbed.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Needless to say, admissions down, total in hospital down, boosters up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    MaxPB said:

    England cases still down WoW despite schools being open, that's the effect of having that additional R budget available. Even if cases fall more slowly than when they were closed, we're still going to see falling cases over the next few weeks and then very, very big drops over the Xmas holidays.

    There aren't many children still to catch it. And we're vaccinating that group. (And vaccination + infection is as good as it gets for preventing transmission.)

    I wouldn't be surprised if - thanks to Delta - we never get to the sub-1,000/day that we had in the Summer of 2020. But that's OK. 2,000 people getting, but not getting particularly sick from, Covid is not the end of the world.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    A statement from Dodds on Cox.

    Responding to his statement, she added: "We have it in black and white.

    "The Conservatives not only knew that Geoffrey Cox was jetting off to defend a Caribbean tax haven, they gave him the green light to vote by proxy while he was there.

    "There really is one rule for senior Tories and another rule for everyone else."


    What rule is it that only applies to him and senior Tories and not to others?

    I saw on Twitter, will have to dig it out, that the remote voting was solely designed to allow MPs to not attend because of Covid-19, that the other standing orders of the House remained regarding voting/pairing etc.

    So if he was out of the country for non governmental/parliamentary business he should have asked for a pair (something the opposition may not have granted if they knew the reasons for it.)
    It wasn't just MPs self-isolating was it? I thought it was a more general provision that let them vote remotely.
    It was designed to allow ensure social distancing, not to allow MPs to decamp overseas.
    Cox is just pointing out he’s in a completely different class to everyone else, though.
    Top social distancing,
    My wife can beat that. When the pandemic started last Feb she was atop Kilimanjaro.
    I had to make do with Inverness.
    Up a mountain is different from up North, Sunil.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,187
    rcs1000 said:

    Like with Trump, if people think you are "on their side", you can get away with an awful lot.

    However, when things start to turn, you don't have any reserve of goodwill to fall back on to. That is the risk for the Conservative Party - that things turn negatively, and then a number of voters suddenly decide that they don't like your previous behaviour.

    Right now, we have the post Covid boom to boost the fortunes of the Conservative Party. How will that end? Will it be gradual slowing of the economy around full employment (which would be great), or will inflation shoot up, necessitating rising interest rates and a hard landing?

    I don't think the British public is as inelastic as the US in their potential voting. Thank goodness.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Heathener said:

    ZOE estimate the current figure around 72,000 and the graphs still look precarious.

    A lot depends on boosters now. We're starting to see growing infections amongst those double jabbed.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    We should be opening up the boosters to the under 50s now. I'm 44 and it will be 5 months to the day tomorrow since I had my second jab. They've got the vaccine supplies so might as well get them in arms ASAP.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Yes we do, or did you miss the Northern Ireland peace process?
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    A statement from Dodds on Cox.

    Responding to his statement, she added: "We have it in black and white.

    "The Conservatives not only knew that Geoffrey Cox was jetting off to defend a Caribbean tax haven, they gave him the green light to vote by proxy while he was there.

    "There really is one rule for senior Tories and another rule for everyone else."


    What rule is it that only applies to him and senior Tories and not to others?

    I saw on Twitter, will have to dig it out, that the remote voting was solely designed to allow MPs to not attend because of Covid-19, that the other standing orders of the House remained regarding voting/pairing etc.

    So if he was out of the country for non governmental/parliamentary business he should have asked for a pair (something the opposition may not have granted if they knew the reasons for it.)
    It wasn't just MPs self-isolating was it? I thought it was a more general provision that let them vote remotely.
    It was designed to allow ensure social distancing, not to allow MPs to decamp overseas.
    Cox is just pointing out he’s in a completely different class to everyone else, though.
    Top social distancing,
    My wife can beat that. When the pandemic started last Feb she was atop Kilimanjaro.
    I had to make do with Inverness.
    Up a mountain is different from up North, Sunil.
    That's my point!
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Well, you're friends with the Saudis!
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    England cases still down WoW despite schools being open, that's the effect of having that additional R budget available. Even if cases fall more slowly than when they were closed, we're still going to see falling cases over the next few weeks and then very, very big drops over the Xmas holidays.

    There aren't many children still to catch it. And we're vaccinating that group. (And vaccination + infection is as good as it gets for preventing transmission.)

    I wouldn't be surprised if - thanks to Delta - we never get to the sub-1,000/day that we had in the Summer of 2020. But that's OK. 2,000 people getting, but not getting particularly sick from, Covid is not the end of the world.
    Plenty of informed estimates have the long run equilibrium level of infections for the UK at something like 10x that given how often people get flu in their lifetime despite widespread immunity, and how much more infectious this is. Regardless, it doesn't need to be a big problem anymore.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    On the argument: "His/her constituents will have the final say" on MPs doing something arguably legal but dodgy.

    Say, for the sake of argument, that your (Tory) MP was caught bang to rights doing something that you agreed was utterly unacceptable. For example, say he'd managed to get contracts with no competition to a company that couldn't provide something essential in a pandemic (and therefore blocked other companies that could) - but the House, whipped, voted to excuse him for this.

    A General Election is comping up. It is, as a matter of fact, 2017.

    How do you vote?

    Specifically the Conservative supporters on here. I'd just like to see how effective the suggested "constituents final say" argument would be for them in practice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,187
    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    ZOE estimate the current figure around 72,000 and the graphs still look precarious.

    A lot depends on boosters now. We're starting to see growing infections amongst those double jabbed.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    We should be opening up the boosters to the under 50s now. I'm 44 and it will be 5 months to the day tomorrow since I had my second jab. They've got the vaccine supplies so might as well get them in arms ASAP.
    40 here & 6 months to the day on Monday.
  • Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    She's British too, you know! Unless you want to go down the Indian path and ban dual citizenship?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,287
    Infections by sample date, last date regarded as complete is 5/11 vs 29/10 shows a 25% fall in cases (R around 0.88)

    The partial dates coming through look to be a bit higher though, might be that 5/11 is the lagging sweet spot case number date from the school holidays.

    6/11 will be a little under 20% below 30/10
    7/11 is already only 14% below 31/10
    8/11 is already 15% below 1/11

    I think these dates will all end up slight falls, but 8/11 will be quite tight.

    I did expect some post return to school case rises, but on what I described overall as a 'falling sawtooth' graph.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    There's been a steady downward trend for nearly a month now. And the same observation applies as has done for a long time: nobody cares about loads of cases picked up through obsessional mass screening of schoolchildren.
    That's untrue on every level. Until very recently the real daily figure was almost certainly close to 100,000 (ZOE).

    I don't know anyone who doesn't care about the situation here, which remains precarious.
    If the true number of cases is that much higher, then the day of herd immunity is closer than we think it is.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    39,329
    Not falling very quickly, unlike Kiwi wickets.

    There's been a steady downward trend for nearly a month now. And the same observation applies as has done for a long time: nobody cares about loads of cases picked up through obsessional mass screening of schoolchildren.
    That's untrue on every level. Until very recently the real daily figure was almost certainly close to 100,000 (ZOE).

    I don't know anyone who doesn't care about the situation here, which remains precarious.
    Poppycock. Why bring in Zoe when we are discussing the recorded positive tests? That shows a substantial decline since 18th October, all with NO NPIs in England. How is the situation precarious? Hospitals are under pressure, but to be frank I don't recall a winter when they weren't. I think you are fully signed up to the iSAGE crowd, who have gone a bit quiet the last two weeks after their last gasp about restrictions.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    I've wittered on about this before, but I still feel the gov is walking onto another controversy over the care worker vaccination deadline, which is tomorrow.

    https://www.unison.org.uk/news/press-release/2021/11/double-jab-rule-risks-care-collapse-says-unison/

    and

    https://inews.co.uk/news/mandatory-covid-jabs-32000-unvaccinated-care-home-workers-facing-sack-new-rules-1292464

    I'm surprised the deadline hasn't been extended and it's too late now I would think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    But dual citizens get no special right of protection from their first/second country of citizenship while in the other.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    Heathener said:

    ZOE estimate the current figure around 72,000 and the graphs still look precarious.

    A lot depends on boosters now. We're starting to see growing infections amongst those double jabbed.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Infections where people get a mild illness is not a problem.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Pro_Rata said:

    Infections by sample date, last date regarded as complete is 5/11 vs 29/10 shows a 25% fall in cases (R around 0.88)

    The partial dates coming through look to be a bit higher though, might be that 5/11 is the lagging sweet spot case number date from the school holidays.

    6/11 will be a little under 20% below 30/10
    7/11 is already only 14% below 31/10
    8/11 is already 15% below 1/11

    I think these dates will all end up slight falls, but 8/11 will be quite tight.

    I did expect some post return to school case rises, but on what I described overall as a 'falling sawtooth' graph.

    http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=CasesByAge

    This projects forward a bit further using the usual weekly patterns for later cases coming through. Yesterday's pretty marginal fall implied a day on day rise in the 7 day rate across most age groups (not oldies, thanks boosters) but at a level which would still show as a week on week fall. Hopefully today's slightly better figures levels that out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    I think the actual quote is ‘We never negotiate with terrorists Mr Adams!’

    And anyway the Iranians could well regards us as duplicitous, and as people who don’t pay their debts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    She's British too, you know! Unless you want to go down the Indian path and ban dual citizenship?
    It seems to be OK on the Brexity right to treat dual citizens (or even potential dual citizens) as having lesser protection.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    rcs1000 said:

    Right now, we have the post Covid boom to boost the fortunes of the Conservative Party. How will that end? Will it be gradual slowing of the economy around full employment (which would be great), or will inflation shoot up, necessitating rising interest rates and a hard landing?

    We know inflation is shooting up, and we know that central banks are crossing their fingers and hoping it's a short-term transient effect related to a post-pandemic bounce.

    The worst-case scenario is that it isn't transient, inflation stays high (or goes higher), and central banks then have to increase interest rates a lot (after massive damage to savings).

    What might cause a structural change to high inflation?

    Two possibilities I think. First is structural changes to the economy as a result of the pandemic might cause imbalances that create inflation. More demand for computer chips for example.

    Second is a reversal of globalisation.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
    not to mention the Saudis Gadaffi, SH's Iraq etc etc... there's virtually no-one we dont negotiate with
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
    We also have absolutely no leg to stand on with respect to the tank deal. We took the money, we didn't deliver the goods.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
    not to mention the Saudis Gadaffi, SH's Iraq etc etc... there's virtually no-one we dont negotiate with
    The EU? At least not in good faith.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
    I appreciate at it's a grey area, but simply holding someone hostage and hoping to get paid for it is unlikely to get very far (cue the government paying the ransom!).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    Maybe it is? I don’t know.

    I do know that Boris “gaffed” and now the government appear to have washed their hands of her.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    He’d better get fundraising then.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
    not to mention the Saudis Gadaffi, SH's Iraq etc etc... there's virtually no-one we dont negotiate with
    The EU? At least not in good faith.
    Send Frostie in.
    And swap her out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
    Negotiation with terrorist groups is probably pretty common. Not sure why it's an expression.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
    I appreciate at it's a grey area, but simply holding someone hostage and hoping to get paid for it is unlikely to get very far (cue the government paying the ransom!).
    Which it might well do because, after all, hostage diplomacy has already been shown to work in high profile cases. It's what the Chinese used successfully against the Canadians to get their Huawei executive back, after all.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Everytime we get to a knock out scenario the Kiwi commentators are incapable of being impartial.

    I actually like it, but do wish Sky could pull their finger our and give me a nice biased set of English commentators rather than this.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,484

    Heathener said:

    ZOE estimate the current figure around 72,000 and the graphs still look precarious.

    A lot depends on boosters now. We're starting to see growing infections amongst those double jabbed.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Infections where people get a mild illness is not a problem.
    This is what I mean when I talk about the ‘stigma’ of covid. There’s an axiomatic obsession with avoiding it, even when in many (most?) cases now it’s a relatively mild illness. It will be a long time, and will require lots of comms effort, for this irrational stigma to be removed, I fear.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    Maybe it is? I don’t know.

    I do know that Boris “gaffed” and now the government appear to have washed their hands of her.
    What I find unedifying is that the government's enemies have taken on this case as it is problematic for them (rather than them giving two fucks about her and her family).

    They've egged Mr Ratcliffe on, when someone needs to put an arm around him and say to him "you've made your point, this isn't going to achieve anything."
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    He’d better get fundraising then.
    Again, rather heartless.

    Especially from someone who expects sympathy for your own circumstances.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    She's British too, you know! Unless you want to go down the Indian path and ban dual citizenship?
    Iran does the same as India iirc, for their purposes she's an Iranian citizen. You have to do what my mum did her Indian citizenship and relinquish it entirely but loads of Iranians (and Indians) don't because it means visa costs and hassle at the border vs travelling as a returning citizen.

    While it might not seem like a big deal in international terms it makes a huge difference because the Iranians are detaining an Iranian national and Iran doesn't recognise dual nationality.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Given the lack of success achieved by previous visits, I'm not sure why we should bother with more.

    Anyway, Mr Ratcliffe seems to think that it's all about the money...

    https://twitter.com/FreeNazanin/status/1458437902476656640
    I think quite a lot of people agree with him.
    We don't negotiate with terrorists. And that's what the Iranian regime are.
    Except for the Taliban.
    And the IRA.
    And so on and so on.

    We do actually negotiate with Iran.
    We also have absolutely no leg to stand on with respect to the tank deal. We took the money, we didn't deliver the goods.
    So I've heard. But whether or not we should have paid up, paying up as a result of transparent hostage taking of our citizens feels like it would go badly for the nation long term in many areas. Poor woman is just a game piece to them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,187

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    She's British too, you know! Unless you want to go down the Indian path and ban dual citizenship?
    It seems to be OK on the Brexity right to treat dual citizens (or even potential dual citizens) as having lesser protection.
    Isn't it the case that if someone is a dual citizen and they're in their other country of nationality they'll be treated as a citizen of that country though ?
    Which might be good, or less good.

    The main issue is with the iranian Gov't not the British one here.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    Maybe it is? I don’t know.

    I do know that Boris “gaffed” and now the government appear to have washed their hands of her.
    What I find unedifying is that the government's enemies have taken on this case as it is problematic for them (rather than them giving two fucks about her and her family).

    They've egged Mr Ratcliffe on, when someone needs to put an arm around him and say to him "you've made your point, this isn't going to achieve anything."
    Presumably he needs to “move on”.
    WTF?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    Maybe it is? I don’t know.

    I do know that Boris “gaffed” and now the government appear to have washed their hands of her.
    What I find unedifying is that the government's enemies have taken on this case as it is problematic for them (rather than them giving two fucks about her and her family).

    They've egged Mr Ratcliffe on, when someone needs to put an arm around him and say to him "you've made your point, this isn't going to achieve anything."
    Presumably he needs to “move on”.
    WTF?
    No, but hurting himself won't get her freed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    He’d better get fundraising then.
    Again, rather heartless.

    Especially from someone who expects sympathy for your own circumstances.
    Not at all, just have a good enough understanding of how these things work to know she doesn’t have a leg to stand on, as an Iranian in Iran.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    Maybe it is? I don’t know.

    I do know that Boris “gaffed” and now the government appear to have washed their hands of her.
    What I find unedifying is that the government's enemies have taken on this case as it is problematic for them (rather than them giving two fucks about her and her family).

    They've egged Mr Ratcliffe on, when someone needs to put an arm around him and say to him "you've made your point, this isn't going to achieve anything."
    Presumably he needs to “move on”.
    WTF?
    No, but hurting himself won't get her freed.
    I don’t dare to judge him.
    She has been imprisoned for 5 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    But dual citizens get no special right of protection from their first/second country of citizenship while in the other.
    Yes, and a rather unfortunate example of why what one nation says is their law on citizenship issues is not always the whole picture. Our view of her status holds no weight to them.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    He’d better get fundraising then.
    Again, rather heartless.

    Especially from someone who expects sympathy for your own circumstances.
    Not at all, just have a good enough understanding of how these things work to know she doesn’t have a leg to stand on, as an Iranian in Iran.
    Perhaps even the Ayatollahs will have pity on her eventually.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    He probably inadvertently told the truth about her visit to Iran, I'm sure it didn't help but I also don't think it's made any real difference. Ultimately what we have is someone who is an Iranian citizen being detained by Iran for breaking an Iranian law on teaching subversive ideas (in their view, not mine, of course). I'm not sure what we can really do about it except hope that they release her one day.

    Her husband seems like a prize idiot, what we needed last time when her original sentence was ending was a silent diplomatic route to her release to allow both sides to save face but instead he went all over the news to get attention for himself and it was obvious that Iran wouldn't take that well but he kept ploughing on with his campaign all over the media and I'm pretty sure the path for Iran to quietly release her to house arrest and eventually freedom closed when he went on the news.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    My gooxd friend's sister was put into ICU with Covid yesterday.
    Puts a different gloss on it for me, rather.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    He’d better get fundraising then.
    I know its not a serious suggestion, but I'd think it's about the money and not the money at the same time. That is, the dispute is about that money, but theyd not want to get it from somewhere else. They want us to clear that obligation, not just make some dosh, and not clearing it is useful for their political purposes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    Maybe it is? I don’t know.

    I do know that Boris “gaffed” and now the government appear to have washed their hands of her.
    What I find unedifying is that the government's enemies have taken on this case as it is problematic for them (rather than them giving two fucks about her and her family).

    They've egged Mr Ratcliffe on, when someone needs to put an arm around him and say to him "you've made your point, this isn't going to achieve anything."
    Presumably he needs to “move on”.
    WTF?
    No, but hurting himself won't get her freed.
    I don’t dare to judge him.
    She has been imprisoned for 5 years.
    I suspect his judgement is that she’s now served her time and it’s now just the money. What that belief is based on I don’t know.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132

    rcs1000 said:

    Right now, we have the post Covid boom to boost the fortunes of the Conservative Party. How will that end? Will it be gradual slowing of the economy around full employment (which would be great), or will inflation shoot up, necessitating rising interest rates and a hard landing?

    We know inflation is shooting up, and we know that central banks are crossing their fingers and hoping it's a short-term transient effect related to a post-pandemic bounce.

    The worst-case scenario is that it isn't transient, inflation stays high (or goes higher), and central banks then have to increase interest rates a lot (after massive damage to savings).

    What might cause a structural change to high inflation?

    Two possibilities I think. First is structural changes to the economy as a result of the pandemic might cause imbalances that create inflation. More demand for computer chips for example.

    Second is a reversal of globalisation.
    That's spot on.

    Imagine a world where - whenever demand grew too quickly - central banks had to slam the inflation brakes on. No one would offer multi-year fixed price mortgages, because it would be too risky. It would mean a return to people borrowing no more than 3.5x their income.

    What would this mean?

    Well, rising interest rates and inflation would be absolutely fantastic for people with fixed rate mortgages. I have a property with 2.5% fixed mortgage for five years. If inflation and interest rates were 15%, for three years, the value of my mortgage (in real terms) would drop almost 40%. And mortgage interest payments relative to income (or rent) would collapse. I would be "in the money".

    On the other hand, people who have not gotten on the housing ladder would be hammered. Rents would rise with inflation, while the cost of getting a mortgage would rise, and banks willingness to lend drop. It would be particularly hard on people in their 20s.
  • tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    But her husband is now saying it is all about the money.
    Maybe it is? I don’t know.

    I do know that Boris “gaffed” and now the government appear to have washed their hands of her.
    Richard Ratcliffe was interviewed on the radio yesterday and said that he thought Johnson's journalist training comments were far less unhelpful to her than the promise he made to pay the money back.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,187
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    She’s an Iranian citizen, currently in Iran, and international law of dual citizenship is quite clear on the point that the UK can do nothing about her except ask nicely - and we know the Iranians have no intention of responding positively.

    Short of sending the SAS in to get her, very much against international law, there’s nothing the UK government can do.
    We could pay the money that Iran say we owe.
    I’m not saying we should, but there are more options than the SAS.

    Boris rather foolishly, when FS, made comments which undermined Nazanin’s case.
    He probably inadvertently told the truth about her visit to Iran, I'm sure it didn't help but I also don't think it's made any real difference. Ultimately what we have is someone who is an Iranian citizen being detained by Iran for breaking an Iranian law on teaching subversive ideas (in their view, not mine, of course). I'm not sure what we can really do about it except hope that they release her one day.

    Her husband seems like a prize idiot, what we needed last time when her original sentence was ending was a silent diplomatic route to her release to allow both sides to save face but instead he went all over the news to get attention for himself and it was obvious that Iran wouldn't take that well but he kept ploughing on with his campaign all over the media and I'm pretty sure the path for Iran to quietly release her to house arrest and eventually freedom closed when he went on the news.
    Perhaps. Obviously the British Gov't could never admit this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    England in trouble here


    The CRICKET, not Covid
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799
    Leon said:

    England in trouble here


    The CRICKET, not Covid

    Yes, it does feel like the chase is on for the Kiwis. 😭
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,804
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    England in trouble here


    The CRICKET, not Covid

    Yes, it does feel like the chase is on for the Kiwis. 😭
    Need to break this partnership. Soon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    England in trouble here


    The CRICKET, not Covid

    Even with that six, they still need more than 10 an over.

    2/1 NZ according to Cricinfo predictor. That’s England 1.33 in Betfair parlance
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    England in trouble here


    The CRICKET, not Covid

    Yes, it does feel like the chase is on for the Kiwis. 😭
    Heh.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    It is rather shabby to refer to her as a “particular Iranian citizen”.

    She is also a British citizen, married to a British citizen, with a British-born child.
    AIUI she is a dual national. Which basically means we can cajole Iran but actually do relatively little beyond that
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    England in trouble here


    The CRICKET, not Covid

    Yes, it does feel like the chase is on for the Kiwis. 😭
    Heh.
    Failing the Tebbit test!!!!! DEPORT THIS MAN!!!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Right now, we have the post Covid boom to boost the fortunes of the Conservative Party. How will that end? Will it be gradual slowing of the economy around full employment (which would be great), or will inflation shoot up, necessitating rising interest rates and a hard landing?

    We know inflation is shooting up, and we know that central banks are crossing their fingers and hoping it's a short-term transient effect related to a post-pandemic bounce.

    The worst-case scenario is that it isn't transient, inflation stays high (or goes higher), and central banks then have to increase interest rates a lot (after massive damage to savings).

    What might cause a structural change to high inflation?

    Two possibilities I think. First is structural changes to the economy as a result of the pandemic might cause imbalances that create inflation. More demand for computer chips for example.

    Second is a reversal of globalisation.
    That's spot on.

    Imagine a world where - whenever demand grew too quickly - central banks had to slam the inflation brakes on. No one would offer multi-year fixed price mortgages, because it would be too risky. It would mean a return to people borrowing no more than 3.5x their income.

    What would this mean?

    Well, rising interest rates and inflation would be absolutely fantastic for people with fixed rate mortgages. I have a property with 2.5% fixed mortgage for five years. If inflation and interest rates were 15%, for three years, the value of my mortgage (in real terms) would drop almost 40%. And mortgage interest payments relative to income (or rent) would collapse. I would be "in the money".

    On the other hand, people who have not gotten on the housing ladder would be hammered. Rents would rise with inflation, while the cost of getting a mortgage would rise, and banks willingness to lend drop. It would be particularly hard on people in their 20s.
    Basically the young are fucked. We've had a decade of ultra low interest rates that's kept housing unaffordable (and made it worse in some parts of the country). And now we have inflation, we can't put up interest rates because that would also screw the young.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    England in trouble here


    The CRICKET, not Covid

    Yes, it does feel like the chase is on for the Kiwis. 😭
    Urgently need wickets to break this partnership
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sandpit said:




    @BestForBritain 2h
    Under Theresa May, five different ministers visited Iran to push for Nazanin's release.

    Under Boris Johnson, zero ministers have visited.

    #FreeNazanin
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1458431261375143938

    Why is the People’s Vote campaign, set up to stop Brexit, so worried about this particular Iranian citizen?
    She's British too, you know! Unless you want to go down the Indian path and ban dual citizenship?
    It seems to be OK on the Brexity right to treat dual citizens (or even potential dual citizens) as having lesser protection.
    It’s ok on the Brexity right to abide by international law?
This discussion has been closed.