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The MPs in danger if the election went as today’s Ipsos poll – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    The HOL needs either abolitioning or elected on a fair bases, and not a place for politicians to retire to and earn £300 a day
    The allowance is paid on the basis of attendance and there is no reason why we should not have experienced elder statesmen in our upper house.

    Make the Lords into an elected Senate like the US and it would also seek to be able to block Bills permanently, not merely delay as the Lords does now and we would end up with the same legislative deadlock the US has if a different party controls the House and Senate
    The US seems to have got by quite well without a House of Lords. I don't see them rushing to implement it. Occasionally a check and balance may get in the way of the executive. As we saw in January and last week, that's not always a bad thing.
    The US hardly ever gets any significant legislation passed, precisely because it elects both chambers of its legislature and its Head of State and all can block legislation. Even if one part controls all 3 branches of the Federal government, if it does not have a big majority in one chamber just 1 or 2 defections from its most centrist members can block passage of bills as planned, as Manchin and Sinema have proved
    Whereas in the UK we have the omnishambles of last week.
    Which is much better.

    If our government remains a shambles they will quite rightly lose the next election and that will be that.

    The people are in charge here, something the American founding fathers detested.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    Yes, add in a bit of tactical voting to the eye of bat and tail of newt and give it all a stir!

    No doubt though that Johnson has lost his sheen. Can he regain it? Or is his act as dated as Jim Davidson?
    He has one obvious chance for a big comeback. If Britain pushes through winter with no more lockdowns, no restrictions and ever-declining Covid (as seems possible, at least) while many of our European friends are forced into more lockdowns and suffer worsening Covid, then Boris will be seen as a great liberator. I expect many voters will forgive or forget the sleaze, and return to the True Faith

    Lots could go wrong, however, of course
    Boris will be fine. The opposition will never "get" him on sleaze. He's teflon like Blair.

    I mean people forget now but the police actually interviewed Blair while he was PM over cash for honours.... so far Boris has avoided that particular ignominy... So far... ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited November 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty sarky at the end there. 'MPs discussed the need for more discussions and agreed to "take their time" with any reforms, but how long will the public give them?'

    Paterson's arrogance, and Boris's lack of judgement over it, and the brazenness of the government in pretending people couldn't see what was happening and claiming they were doing something else, is infuriating. I'd never be surprised if next week polls rebound, but whoever first noted that this was such a needless affair is dead right. Why why why did they pick this fight?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    The HOL needs either abolitioning or elected on a fair bases, and not a place for politicians to retire to and earn £300 a day
    The allowance is paid on the basis of attendance and there is no reason why we should not have experienced elder statesmen in our upper house.

    Make the Lords into an elected Senate like the US and it would also seek to be able to block Bills permanently, not merely delay as the Lords does now and we would end up with the same legislative deadlock the US has if a different party controls the House and Senate
    The US seems to have got by quite well without a House of Lords. I don't see them rushing to implement it. Occasionally a check and balance may get in the way of the executive. As we saw in January and last week, that's not always a bad thing.
    The US hardly ever gets any significant legislation passed, precisely because it elects both chambers of its legislature and its Head of State and all can block legislation. Even if one part controls all 3 branches of the Federal government, if it does not have a big majority in one chamber just 1 or 2 defections from its most centrist members can block passage of bills as planned, as Manchin and Sinema have proved
    Whereas in the UK we have the omnishambles of last week.
    Which was quickly rowed back on anyway when public opinion turned against it.

    At least in the UK when we elect a government with a Commons majority it can get a lot done and its manifesto passed quickly, as the House of Lords can only delay bills not block them outright and the monarch generally just signs bills through.

    That is rarely the case in the US, unless one party wins the Presidency and Congress by a landslide, as Obama and the Democrats did in 2008, enabling them to pass Obamacare before the GOP regained the House in 2010
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    That's an interesting take. Everybody else is dumping raw sewage into their rivers and sea, so why shouldn't we?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,135
    MikeL said:

    "Tory MP faces bankruptcy over unpaid taxes and may have to step down"

    "Exclusive: court records show petition filed by HMRC against Adam Afriyie, MP for Windsor"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/08/tory-mp-faces-bankruptcy-over-unpaid-taxes-and-may-have-to-step-down-adam-afriyie

    A strange one.

    Sold his formr company for around £10m value for his share. Has a house in Windsor bought for £4m in 2008. Unencumbered in official records. Will have appreciated. HMRC are after £1.7m.

    On the surface of it he could have sold up and downsized to a £2m house in the inflated market last year, and dodged 100s of k of Stamp Duty. Like Osborne probably did. And cleared the account.

    Hmmm.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Can I admit to not being a fan of the word sleaze? I think its too easy to get used too broadly, and you end up lumping the Paterson's of the world together with someone who gets their knuckles wrapped for over claiming on a box of pens or something. Or it is assumed to mean something where you do directly benefit, and thus those who have acted inappropriately perhaps without directly benefiting financially can claim they are not sleazy.

    I prefer talking more about standards, about acting with integrity and propriety, but I accept it is not as catchy and might seem a bit anaemic a description for some behaviours.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,135
    edited November 2021
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    32m
    England's struggle to keep cases down continues, with as little success as we've managed these past sixteen days.

    Eh? Is he drunk?
    I assume he is being sarcastic.
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.

    Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.

    Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
    To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success

    About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
    Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.

    The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
    Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?

    What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out

    Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
    This is absolutely spot on.

    Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.

    There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.

    Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.

    So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.
    I expected Covid measure fatigue a lot sooner, but we almost seem to have gotten to a point where we had two shots, and lots have decided it is just beyond us to push people to get a third.

    Rich nations have enough to give people boosters, they've had time for eveyone who could be persuaded to get a first and second shot to have done so (some benig better at this than others), so just go for it hard.

    And all throughout this pandemic nations all over, and us the public in fairness, seem to have short memories. Like those people trying to point to EU second dose stats vs the UK as if they had no idea how maths works and that the UK rate woiuld increase massively after 3 months, or own own inability to see what would happen in January this year.
    Comical Dave has already doubled down on "look at Eastern Europe", and switched to Death Rates, where it was all about high cases in the UK until very recently. The common element is that he is the EuCo's amateur PR man at the Politico, and the latest EuCo spat is to go for EE countries.

    I know he's funny for most here, but he is also one of the widest-read agenda setters in EU media / politics. For a decent future EuCo needs a critical media, so you can find it without just looking for the two feet sticking out of UVDL's rear aspect. Quite a serious long term issue IMO.



    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1457685368447320065

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907
    edited November 2021
    MattW said:

    MikeL said:

    "Tory MP faces bankruptcy over unpaid taxes and may have to step down"

    "Exclusive: court records show petition filed by HMRC against Adam Afriyie, MP for Windsor"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/08/tory-mp-faces-bankruptcy-over-unpaid-taxes-and-may-have-to-step-down-adam-afriyie

    A strange one.

    Sold his formr company for around £10m value for his share. Has a house in Windsor bought for £4m in 2008. Unencumbered in official records. Will have appreciated. HMRC are after £1.7m.

    On the surface of it he could have sold up and downsized to a £2m house in the inflated market last year, and dodged 100s of k of Stamp Duty. Like Osborne probably did. And cleared the account.

    Hmmm.

    Windsor and Maidenhead was 54% Remain.

    Could offer an opportunity for the LDs if there is a by election, they were second in Windsor in 2019
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    edited November 2021
    The two things that could get Boris:

    1. A severe recession/inflation spike/interest rate hikes/cost of living etc

    2. The "green crap" (as Cameron put it) Or rather the cost of the "green crap" which really ties in to one. However, I assume they'll be sensible enough to push most of the costs beyond 2023 lol!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    Stories like this don't stick unless they have salience with the general public's experience, and the fact is there has been significant worsening of water quality in the seas around the country for several years (I've seen less on rivers other than the Thames, which of course the tideway tunnel will fix). There is ongoing controversy around raw sewage pollution in oyster and mussel fisheries in the SE, and we all know the stories from surfers around the country.

    The reason it is a political issue now is that the Tories as usual took a completely tone deaf approach to voting and whipping on an issue that is motherhood and apple pie to the general public. Just like their repeated run-ins with Marcus Rashford on kids' meals. They seem strangely incapable of basic retail politics.

    Promising to fix this should be a perfect opportunity for Labour. It is the essence of feel good politics to promise cleaner water. Nobody can argue against it, not on cost grounds ("what price clean water"), not on statistics ("you can quote these figures all you like but explain to me why Mrs Smith found a poo floating in her local lake last Friday"). It's where the opposition should be striding up to the crease and scoring free runs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,135
    edited November 2021

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    That's an interesting take. Everybody else is dumping raw sewage into their rivers and sea, so why shouldn't we?
    Not my take.

    My take is tackle it carefully, properly and rationally, rather than populism and scaremongering. Which is what we had on that issue.

    That is UK Green Party style, rather than German Green Party style.

    Which is why the UK Green Parties are essentially self-marginalised and irrelevant (except a bit of influence propping up the ScotGov), and the German Greens are a major player in Government.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    GIN1138 said:

    The two things that could get Boris:

    1. A severe recession/inflation spike/interest rate hikes/cost of living etc

    2. The "green crap" as Cameron put it. Or rather the cost of the "green crap" which really ties in to one. However, I assume they'll be sensible enough to push most of the costs beyond 2023 lol!

    The brown crap is more of a problem currently.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    The HOL needs either abolitioning or elected on a fair bases, and not a place for politicians to retire to and earn £300 a day
    The allowance is paid on the basis of attendance and there is no reason why we should not have experienced elder statesmen in our upper house.

    Make the Lords into an elected Senate like the US and it would also seek to be able to block Bills permanently, not merely delay as the Lords does now and we would end up with the same legislative deadlock the US has if a different party controls the House and Senate
    The US seems to have got by quite well without a House of Lords. I don't see them rushing to implement it. Occasionally a check and balance may get in the way of the executive. As we saw in January and last week, that's not always a bad thing.
    The US hardly ever gets any significant legislation passed, precisely because it elects both chambers of its legislature and its Head of State and all can block legislation. Even if one part controls all 3 branches of the Federal government, if it does not have a big majority in one chamber just 1 or 2 defections from its most centrist members can block passage of bills as planned, as Manchin and Sinema have proved
    Whereas in the UK we have the omnishambles of last week.
    Which is much better.

    If our government remains a shambles they will quite rightly lose the next election and that will be that.

    The people are in charge here, something the American founding fathers detested.
    Except that our political system is purpose-designed to give only two sides a look-in, such that we voters regularly get the choice between being shot or hung.
  • IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,187
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    The HOL needs either abolitioning or elected on a fair bases, and not a place for politicians to retire to and earn £300 a day
    The allowance is paid on the basis of attendance and there is no reason why we should not have experienced elder statesmen in our upper house.

    Make the Lords into an elected Senate like the US and it would also seek to be able to block Bills permanently, not merely delay as the Lords does now and we would end up with the same legislative deadlock the US has if a different party controls the House and Senate
    The US seems to have got by quite well without a House of Lords. I don't see them rushing to implement it. Occasionally a check and balance may get in the way of the executive. As we saw in January and last week, that's not always a bad thing.
    The US hardly ever gets any significant legislation passed, precisely because it elects both chambers of its legislature and its Head of State and all can block legislation. Even if one part controls all 3 branches of the Federal government, if it does not have a big majority in one chamber just 1 or 2 defections from its most centrist members can block passage of bills as planned, as Manchin and Sinema have proved
    Whereas in the UK we have the omnishambles of last week.
    Which is much better.

    If our government remains a shambles they will quite rightly lose the next election and that will be that.

    The people are in charge here, something the American founding fathers detested.
    Except that our political system is purpose-designed to give only two sides a look-in, such that we voters regularly get the choice between being shot or hung.
    It's a damned sight better than what could happen in the USA in the next decade or so where only one side gets a look in. And it won't be the Democrats.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    House of Lords reform suggestion: why not make the UK a world first and run the upper house as AI?

    Saves money and time, no more cash for honours, one party can't pack it with cronies. Just one very intelligent, and ever-learning robot. Would obviously need reasonably robust cyber security measures in place.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    American progressives are now turning on successful immigrants for not supporting their causes.

    image

    'non-white flavor'

    She lists two tech m(b?)illionaires Theil & Khosla - one of german the other of indian heritage...
    Her tweets now seem to be protected.
    The left welcomes immigrants, along as they stay poor and do not get rich and become conservative
    That's not true.

    They are happy for them to become rich(ish), so long as they continue to donate handsomely to the appropriate left wing organisations.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    Can I admit to not being a fan of the word sleaze? I think its too easy to get used too broadly, and you end up lumping the Paterson's of the world together with someone who gets their knuckles wrapped for over claiming on a box of pens or something. Or it is assumed to mean something where you do directly benefit, and thus those who have acted inappropriately perhaps without directly benefiting financially can claim they are not sleazy.

    I prefer talking more about standards, about acting with integrity and propriety, but I accept it is not as catchy and might seem a bit anaemic a description for some behaviours.

    Fraud is a useful word. Sleaze rather understates what Paterson was up to.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    kle4 said:

    Can I admit to not being a fan of the word sleaze? I think its too easy to get used too broadly, and you end up lumping the Paterson's of the world together with someone who gets their knuckles wrapped for over claiming on a box of pens or something. Or it is assumed to mean something where you do directly benefit, and thus those who have acted inappropriately perhaps without directly benefiting financially can claim they are not sleazy.

    I prefer talking more about standards, about acting with integrity and propriety, but I accept it is not as catchy and might seem a bit anaemic a description for some behaviours.

    The word that I'm bored of is crisis. A pandemic is a crisis, most of the other stuff that has been labelled a crisis in recent months is not much more than a mild annoyance.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited November 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    Watching that clip, I do wonder whether Boris is losing his touch. It's all a bit baffling. Firstly, there's obviously no reason why he couldn't have postponed or cut short this visit and attended today's debate if he thinks that the standards issue is so important. Secondly, why is he refusing to apologise when Barclay apologised on behalf of the government in the House?

    The government should be particularly concerned by Mark Harper's comments in the House - saying that the 'captain of the team' should have been there in person.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MrEd said:

    Apparently we need a trans crossing in Camden.

    No TERFs allowed
    Are there 3 transgenders in that photo?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    The HOL needs either abolitioning or elected on a fair bases, and not a place for politicians to retire to and earn £300 a day
    The allowance is paid on the basis of attendance and there is no reason why we should not have experienced elder statesmen in our upper house.

    Make the Lords into an elected Senate like the US and it would also seek to be able to block Bills permanently, not merely delay as the Lords does now and we would end up with the same legislative deadlock the US has if a different party controls the House and Senate
    That could work. The Australian Senate has 1911 House of Lords powers, IIRC
    The US system appears designed to cope with the potential insanity of any of its three legs by making sure the others can always stop anything happening.
    SCOTUS gave itself far too much power with Marbury v Madison. Essentially the way any justice interprets the constitution can override both the president and congress; and when you have six federalists in there like now....
    Thankfully SCOTUK did not use a similar tactic when deciding Miller II, for all it's faults Parliament should always be at the top of the tree - which Miller II affirmed.
    Yes, that seems important. Interestingly they have tip toed in that direction from time to time apparently - Joshua Rozenberg's excellent recent book* has some very interesting discussion and analysis on the working and judgements of the courts, and those who are more conservative or activist, and while he takes issue with the conclusions of someone like Sumption, he did agree in a few instances where the court had taken a stance seemingly concluding parliament could not have intended what it seemed the legislations said it intended.


    *Enemies of the People - very well written, thoughtful, and compelling.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,135
    edited November 2021
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    Stories like this don't stick unless they have salience with the general public's experience, and the fact is there has been significant worsening of water quality in the seas around the country for several years (I've seen less on rivers other than the Thames, which of course the tideway tunnel will fix). There is ongoing controversy around raw sewage pollution in oyster and mussel fisheries in the SE, and we all know the stories from surfers around the country.

    The reason it is a political issue now is that the Tories as usual took a completely tone deaf approach to voting and whipping on an issue that is motherhood and apple pie to the general public. Just like their repeated run-ins with Marcus Rashford on kids' meals. They seem strangely incapable of basic retail politics.

    Promising to fix this should be a perfect opportunity for Labour. It is the essence of feel good politics to promise cleaner water. Nobody can argue against it, not on cost grounds ("what price clean water"), not on statistics ("you can quote these figures all you like but explain to me why Mrs Smith found a poo floating in her local lake last Friday"). It's where the opposition should be striding up to the crease and scoring free runs.
    On even the low end of costs estimated, it is not far off a doubling of all residential water bills for a generation.

    How will that play in a "fully costed manifesto"?

    Somewhat agree on the politics / presentation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,817
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    That's an interesting take. Everybody else is dumping raw sewage into their rivers and sea, so why shouldn't we?
    Not my take.

    My take is tackle it carefully, properly and rationally, rather than populism and scaremongering. Which is what we had on that issue.

    That is UK Green Party style, rather than German Green Party style.

    Which is why the UK Green Party are essentially self-marginalised and irrelevant.
    *pedantry* No such thing as the UK Green Party. Will be interesting to see how the two Green parties develop on the issue, as one is sort of in government.

    BTW interesting (from an EVEL point of view) to see David Mundell MP voting on the Engliush legislation despite being a MP for a Scottish constituency. His argument seems to be that some waterways/estuaries are shared, which seems logical enough.

    https://www.peeblesshirenews.com/news/19681350.mundell-back-duty-water-firms-reduce-river-sewage/
  • Apparently we need a trans crossing in Camden.

    I'm reliably informed it's @SeanT on the right, and @Leon next to him.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Watching that clip, I do wonder whether Boris is losing his touch. It's all a bit baffling. Firstly, there's obviously no reason why he couldn't have postponed or cut short this visit and attended today's debate if he thinks that the standards issue is so important. Secondly, why is he refusing to apologise when Barclay apologised on behalf of the government in the House?

    The government should be particularly concerned by Mark Harper's comments in the House - saying that the 'captain of the team' should have been there in person.
    He's refusing to apologise because he never apologies because he's a fucking psycho.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Online players of Great Western Trail should get on with their moves.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    American progressives are now turning on successful immigrants for not supporting their causes.

    image

    'non-white flavor'

    She lists two tech m(b?)illionaires Theil & Khosla - one of german the other of indian heritage...
    Her tweets now seem to be protected.
    The left welcomes immigrants, along as they stay poor and do not get rich and become conservative
    That's not true.

    They are happy for them to become rich(ish), so long as they continue to donate handsomely to the appropriate left wing organisations.
    They want immigrants who are poor and dependent on welfare subsidies from leftwing governments, or rich but very socially liberal and culturally left.

    What they do not want is immigrants who become rich and not dependent on state welfare, who are socially conservative and become patriots in the country of destination
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2021
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    American progressives are now turning on successful immigrants for not supporting their causes.

    image

    You found an arsehole on Twitter and extrapolated.
    Slow hand clap.
    To be fair, being able to extrapolate from an a******e on Twitter is an achievement of sorts, given that most of them have already reached the limit?
    I mean tarring many people on the behaviour of few. The implication that progressives are racist is no better than implying conservatives are. Oh yeah, THIS one is. Those tweets are pure arseholery. You want to try to extrapolate from there? You could choose "Mid-westerners". Or "women". Or "white people". Or "gingers". Ah but no. It's "progressives", isn't it?
    Of course it is - progressives choose to be progressives, the other options you offer don’t have anything to do with the ideas people who share the characteristic might have.
  • kle4 said:

    Can I admit to not being a fan of the word sleaze? I think its too easy to get used too broadly, and you end up lumping the Paterson's of the world together with someone who gets their knuckles wrapped for over claiming on a box of pens or something. Or it is assumed to mean something where you do directly benefit, and thus those who have acted inappropriately perhaps without directly benefiting financially can claim they are not sleazy.

    I prefer talking more about standards, about acting with integrity and propriety, but I accept it is not as catchy and might seem a bit anaemic a description for some behaviours.

    Sigourney Weaver mentioned it in "Aliens" as long ago as 1986:

    "These people are *dead*, Burke! Don't you have any idea what you have done here? Well, I'm gonna make sure they nail you right to the wall for this! You're not gonna sleaze your way out of this one! Right to the wall!"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907
    edited November 2021
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    So what, there is no high IQ or Oxbridge graduate requirement to become an MP or peer.

    Both however have decades of experience of the political and legislative process
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Whereas you have.... what? How would you estimate your own intelligence by this metric?

    Serious question
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    edited November 2021
    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    Stories like this don't stick unless they have salience with the general public's experience, and the fact is there has been significant worsening of water quality in the seas around the country for several years (I've seen less on rivers other than the Thames, which of course the tideway tunnel will fix). There is ongoing controversy around raw sewage pollution in oyster and mussel fisheries in the SE, and we all know the stories from surfers around the country.

    The reason it is a political issue now is that the Tories as usual took a completely tone deaf approach to voting and whipping on an issue that is motherhood and apple pie to the general public. Just like their repeated run-ins with Marcus Rashford on kids' meals. They seem strangely incapable of basic retail politics.

    Promising to fix this should be a perfect opportunity for Labour. It is the essence of feel good politics to promise cleaner water. Nobody can argue against it, not on cost grounds ("what price clean water"), not on statistics ("you can quote these figures all you like but explain to me why Mrs Smith found a poo floating in her local lake last Friday"). It's where the opposition should be striding up to the crease and scoring free runs.
    On even the low end of costs estimated, it is a doubling of all residential water bills for a generation.

    How will that play?
    On the lower end of the conservatives' estimates which turned out to be complete nonsense.

    The UK is ranked 30/35 for bathing water quality across Europe (EU + a few neighbours). Yet clean bathing and fishing water is of benefit to everyone who ever goes near the coast or rivers.

    Labour don't even need to worry about the cost arguments anyway, for the reason I gave above. Arguing for polluted water cos it's cheaper is about as politically palatable as arguing to reduce NHS funding or take free meals off children.

    EDIT: and I think they should stop worrying about fully costing their manifesto. The Tories don't. The Lib Dems do - scientifically and with a great deal of effort and pride. Guess which one's in power. They can knock up a spreadsheet and fund it with a few sweeps of the pen including "making the water companies pay" and freezing bills, as well as the evergreen tackling tax avoidance.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    UK local R

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    American progressives are now turning on successful immigrants for not supporting their causes.

    image

    You found an arsehole on Twitter and extrapolated.
    Slow hand clap.
    To be fair, being able to extrapolate from an a******e on Twitter is an achievement of sorts, given that most of them have already reached the limit?
    I mean tarring many people on the behaviour of few. The implication that progressives are racist is no better than implying conservatives are. Oh yeah, THIS one is. Those tweets are pure arseholery. You want to try to extrapolate from there? You could choose "Mid-westerners". Or "women". Or "white people". Or "gingers". Ah but no. It's "progressives", isn't it?
    Thing is, we all know that people on all sides will find a tweet from an idiot and state or imply that it is representative or, more likely, reflective of some fundamental aspect even if not quite so extreme. Sometimes it actually will be. So even if most of the time it won't be it's not a tactic that will stop.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    TimS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The two things that could get Boris:

    1. A severe recession/inflation spike/interest rate hikes/cost of living etc

    2. The "green crap" as Cameron put it. Or rather the cost of the "green crap" which really ties in to one. However, I assume they'll be sensible enough to push most of the costs beyond 2023 lol!

    The brown crap is more of a problem currently.
    Southern water has finally, after three months’ effort, managed to stop the sewer running down my road every time we have heavy rain. Pumping it out to sea isn’t ideal but I’d choose it over pumping it through my garden and along the road into the gardens below.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Whereas you have.... what? How would you estimate your own intelligence by this metric?

    Serious question
    A modern major general if I'm not mistaken.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    UK case summary

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    TimS said:

    House of Lords reform suggestion: why not make the UK a world first and run the upper house as AI?

    Saves money and time, no more cash for honours, one party can't pack it with cronies. Just one very intelligent, and ever-learning robot. Would obviously need reasonably robust cyber security measures in place.

    Great Idea, but it needs a catchy name. Could I suggest Skynet?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    UK deaths

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    32m
    England's struggle to keep cases down continues, with as little success as we've managed these past sixteen days.

    Eh? Is he drunk?
    I assume he is being sarcastic.
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.

    Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.

    Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
    To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success

    About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
    Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.

    The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
    Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?

    What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out

    Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
    This is absolutely spot on.

    Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.

    There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.

    Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.

    So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.
    I expected Covid measure fatigue a lot sooner, but we almost seem to have gotten to a point where we had two shots, and lots have decided it is just beyond us to push people to get a third.

    Rich nations have enough to give people boosters, they've had time for eveyone who could be persuaded to get a first and second shot to have done so (some benig better at this than others), so just go for it hard.

    And all throughout this pandemic nations all over, and us the public in fairness, seem to have short memories. Like those people trying to point to EU second dose stats vs the UK as if they had no idea how maths works and that the UK rate woiuld increase massively after 3 months, or own own inability to see what would happen in January this year.
    Comical Dave has already doubled down on "look at Eastern Europe", and switched to Death Rates, where it was all about high cases in the UK until very recently. The common element is that he is the EuCo's amateur PR man at the Politico, and the latest EuCo spat is to go for EE countries.

    I know he's funny for most here, but he is also one of the widest-read agenda setters in EU media / politics. For a decent future EuCo needs a critical media, so you can find it without just looking for the two feet sticking out of UVDL's rear aspect. Quite a serious long term issue IMO.



    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1457685368447320065

    Comical Dave is - for once - correct.

    Eastern Europe is currently seeing death rates that in some cases exceed the UK's peaks from eaely in the pandemic. And it's because they have very low levels of vaccination.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    Not 'any', 'some' or maybe 'a few'. Or perhaps just [deleted].
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Whereas you have.... what? How would you estimate your own intelligence by this metric?

    Serious question
    A modern major general if I'm not mistaken.

    Very good
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    That's an interesting take. Everybody else is dumping raw sewage into their rivers and sea, so why shouldn't we?
    Not my take.

    My take is tackle it carefully, properly and rationally, rather than populism and scaremongering. Which is what we had on that issue.

    That is UK Green Party style, rather than German Green Party style.

    Which is why the UK Green Parties are essentially self-marginalised and irrelevant (except a bit of influence propping up the ScotGov), and the German Greens are a major player in Government.
    I would say that is mostly a function of the FPTP/PR effect.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image

    image
    image
    image
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708

    UK deaths

    image

    England deaths.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    House of Lords reform suggestion: why not make the UK a world first and run the upper house as AI?

    Saves money and time, no more cash for honours, one party can't pack it with cronies. Just one very intelligent, and ever-learning robot. Would obviously need reasonably robust cyber security measures in place.

    Great Idea, but it needs a catchy name. Could I suggest Skynet?
    Fishnet perhaps
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Corbyn and IDS intelligent? "More intelligent than any of us on here" Wtf?

    Has Leon been on the sauce again?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    So what, there is no high IQ or Oxbridge graduate requirement to become an MP or peer.

    Both however have decades of experience of the political and legislative process
    It is important that all demographics are represented in the Lords, including morons, waitress, electoral failures and scoundrels. Certainly that is Johnsons approach, so why not IDS and Jezza too?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    geoffw said:

    UK deaths

    image

    England deaths.
    Yeah - seems to be an issue with the API for the Scottish, Welsh and NI data this evening...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The two things that could get Boris:

    1. A severe recession/inflation spike/interest rate hikes/cost of living etc

    2. The "green crap" as Cameron put it. Or rather the cost of the "green crap" which really ties in to one. However, I assume they'll be sensible enough to push most of the costs beyond 2023 lol!

    The brown crap is more of a problem currently.
    Southern water has finally, after three months’ effort, managed to stop the sewer running down my road every time we have heavy rain. Pumping it out to sea isn’t ideal but I’d choose it over pumping it through my garden and along the road into the gardens below.
    But some way below directly into your house I assume?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,135
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    That's an interesting take. Everybody else is dumping raw sewage into their rivers and sea, so why shouldn't we?
    Not my take.

    My take is tackle it carefully, properly and rationally, rather than populism and scaremongering. Which is what we had on that issue.

    That is UK Green Party style, rather than German Green Party style.

    Which is why the UK Green Party are essentially self-marginalised and irrelevant.
    *pedantry* No such thing as the UK Green Party. Will be interesting to see how the two Green parties develop on the issue, as one is sort of in government.

    BTW interesting (from an EVEL point of view) to see David Mundell MP voting on the Engliush legislation despite being a MP for a Scottish constituency. His argument seems to be that some waterways/estuaries are shared, which seems logical enough.

    https://www.peeblesshirenews.com/news/19681350.mundell-back-duty-water-firms-reduce-river-sewage/
    Indeed. Updated to "UK Green Parties" after the fact.

    :smile:
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Quite.

    And Corbyn is another who is middling to mediocre.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,135
    edited November 2021

    Age related data

    image

    Argh. I've been triggered.

    We have Rainbow Graphs.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.

    There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.

    In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.

    In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:

    Changes from the July 2021 election:

    GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
    Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
    We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
    There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
    Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
    Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
    Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)

    It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.

    The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.

    Love the party names.

    Imagine the UK versions.

    Labour Party for Equity Amongst The People

    Freedom Party for Liberal People Who Value Rights and Freedoms

    Stand Up for Badgers and Foxes and Other Smaller Animals

    Movement for Brave Scotland and Trainspotting
    Sir Bob of Crow probably came closest with his No 2 EU - Yes to Democracy party. But he could have gone longer, I reckon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    Heathener said:

    Corbyn and IDS intelligent? "More intelligent than any of us on here" Wtf?

    Has Leon been on the sauce again?

    I never said that. Indeed I never said anything about their IQs

    I merely said that in our present House of Lords, as it stands, they should be welcome and valued, as they are experienced senior politicians and, just as importantly, they represent major strands of British politics (even if they are also abhorred by multiple opponents). As long as they haven't broken major laws, let them be Lords (of course Corbyn would probably decline, as someone else said, but that's a different issue)

    If you want to totally reform the Lords then do that, instead. I would be reluctant to challenge the Commons with another directly elected chamber, and end up with American-style stalemates
  • Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    Apparently we need a trans crossing in Camden.

    No TERFs allowed
    Cis people don't need a crossing. Only Trans people do. Cis people stick to their own side.
    Trans people cismit the Covid virus.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907
    edited November 2021
    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Quite.

    And Corbyn is another who is middling to mediocre.
    The most intelligent PM of my lifetime on paper was Gordon Brown. The most intelligent Tory leader of my lifetime was William Hague.

    Enough said. High intelligence may make you a brilliant professor, QC or surgeon it does not guarantee success in much else.

    Drive and judgement are more important
  • Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Corbyn and IDS intelligent? "More intelligent than any of us on here" Wtf?

    Has Leon been on the sauce again?

    I never said that. Indeed I never said anything about their IQs

    I merely said that in our present House of Lords, as it stands, they should be welcome and valued, as they are experienced senior politicians and, just as importantly, they represent major strands of British politics (even if they are also abhorred by multiple opponents). As long as they haven't broken major laws, let them be Lords (of course Corbyn would probably decline, as someone else said, but that's a different issue)

    If you want to totally reform the Lords then do that, instead. I would be reluctant to challenge the Commons with another directly elected chamber, and end up with American-style stalemates
    House of Lords = House of UNELECTED HAS-BEENS (or NEVER-BEENS in many cases!)!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Corbyn and IDS intelligent? "More intelligent than any of us on here" Wtf?

    Has Leon been on the sauce again?

    I never said that. Indeed I never said anything about their IQs

    I merely said that in our present House of Lords, as it stands, they should be welcome and valued, as they are experienced senior politicians and, just as importantly, they represent major strands of British politics (even if they are also abhorred by multiple opponents). As long as they haven't broken major laws, let them be Lords (of course Corbyn would probably decline, as someone else said, but that's a different issue)

    If you want to totally reform the Lords then do that, instead. I would be reluctant to challenge the Commons with another directly elected chamber, and end up with American-style stalemates
    House of Lords = House of UNELECTED HAS-BEENS (or NEVER-BEENS in many cases!)!
    You've updated it!!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I agree with most of that post but I am surprised you think both are more intelligent than any of us on here. I haven't seen anything particularly special about either and this forum clearly has many of high intelligence. In fact on the evidence available I suspect you are more intelligent than both.
  • Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    Apparently we need a trans crossing in Camden.

    No TERFs allowed
    Cis people don't need a crossing. Only Trans people do. Cis people stick to their own side.
    Trans people cismit the Covid virus.
    Trans people 'Look both ways'.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Whereas you have.... what? How would you estimate your own intelligence by this metric?

    Serious question
    To be honest, I think that question goes to the heart of what intelligence might be.

    I always did well at school, and seem to have an ability to join the dots and see the big picture in most situations, such that I am able to learn new things quickly and understand the basics of new fields after the minimum of study.

    Yet I have always marvelled at those people who seem able to become true experts in subjects at depth, and I have generally failed whenever I have tried to follow them down such a path. I know a little about a lot but a lot about a little. Indeed my life is a story of using my skills as a generalist and avoiding choices that would involve competing with people who have deep understanding of narrow fields.

    I should have been one of those eighteenth or nineteenth century gentlemen who quickly got to the limits of knowledge in their fields because not that much was known. But nowadays, it takes a serious degree of application to get to the limits of knowledge in any field, and the effort required has so far eluded me.

    Hence I am reduced to debating nighttime on PB with you, wondering whether your wine bottle is as empty as mine.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    32m
    England's struggle to keep cases down continues, with as little success as we've managed these past sixteen days.

    Eh? Is he drunk?
    I assume he is being sarcastic.
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.

    Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.

    Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
    To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success

    About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
    Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.

    The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
    Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?

    What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out

    Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
    This is absolutely spot on.

    Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.

    There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.

    Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.

    So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.
    I expected Covid measure fatigue a lot sooner, but we almost seem to have gotten to a point where we had two shots, and lots have decided it is just beyond us to push people to get a third.

    Rich nations have enough to give people boosters, they've had time for eveyone who could be persuaded to get a first and second shot to have done so (some benig better at this than others), so just go for it hard.

    And all throughout this pandemic nations all over, and us the public in fairness, seem to have short memories. Like those people trying to point to EU second dose stats vs the UK as if they had no idea how maths works and that the UK rate woiuld increase massively after 3 months, or own own inability to see what would happen in January this year.
    Comical Dave has already doubled down on "look at Eastern Europe", and switched to Death Rates, where it was all about high cases in the UK until very recently. The common element is that he is the EuCo's amateur PR man at the Politico, and the latest EuCo spat is to go for EE countries.

    I know he's funny for most here, but he is also one of the widest-read agenda setters in EU media / politics. For a decent future EuCo needs a critical media, so you can find it without just looking for the two feet sticking out of UVDL's rear aspect. Quite a serious long term issue IMO.



    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1457685368447320065

    Comical Dave is - for once - correct.

    Eastern Europe is currently seeing death rates that in some cases exceed the UK's peaks from eaely in the pandemic. And it's because they have very low levels of vaccination.
    Hitting the UK equivalent of a thousand+ deaths a day during the pandemic is a tragedy. Doing so, like Florida did, after vaccines have been widely available, is close to criminal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    So what, there is no high IQ or Oxbridge graduate requirement to become an MP or peer.

    Both however have decades of experience of the political and legislative process
    It is important that all demographics are represented in the Lords, including morons, waitress, electoral failures and scoundrels. Certainly that is Johnsons approach, so why not IDS and Jezza too?
    You were working as a waitress in a cocktail bar
    When I met you
    I picked you out, I shook you up
    And ennobled you.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,784
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Corbyn and IDS intelligent? "More intelligent than any of us on here" Wtf?

    Has Leon been on the sauce again?

    I never said that. Indeed I never said anything about their IQs

    I merely said that in our present House of Lords, as it stands, they should be welcome and valued, as they are experienced senior politicians and, just as importantly, they represent major strands of British politics (even if they are also abhorred by multiple opponents). As long as they haven't broken major laws, let them be Lords (of course Corbyn would probably decline, as someone else said, but that's a different issue)

    If you want to totally reform the Lords then do that, instead. I would be reluctant to challenge the Commons with another directly elected chamber, and end up with American-style stalemates
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Corbyn and IDS intelligent? "More intelligent than any of us on here" Wtf?

    Has Leon been on the sauce again?

    I never said that. Indeed I never said anything about their IQs

    I merely said that in our present House of Lords, as it stands, they should be welcome and valued, as they are experienced senior politicians and, just as importantly, they represent major strands of British politics (even if they are also abhorred by multiple opponents). As long as they haven't broken major laws, let them be Lords (of course Corbyn would probably decline, as someone else said, but that's a different issue)

    If you want to totally reform the Lords then do that, instead. I would be reluctant to challenge the Commons with another directly elected chamber, and end up with American-style stalemates
    I think that's fair enough.
    I mean, I yield to no-one in my rejection of all Corbyn stands for. But he represents a significant constituency of opinion, and moreover has, what, 40 years experience in politics. He knows how it all works.

    Off thread, I've just had Nigel Farage advertising a financial company as the advert before my youtube video plays.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,135
    edited November 2021
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    That's an interesting take. Everybody else is dumping raw sewage into their rivers and sea, so why shouldn't we?
    Not my take.

    My take is tackle it carefully, properly and rationally, rather than populism and scaremongering. Which is what we had on that issue.

    That is UK Green Party style, rather than German Green Party style.

    Which is why the UK Green Parties are essentially self-marginalised and irrelevant (except a bit of influence propping up the ScotGov), and the German Greens are a major player in Government.
    I would say that is mostly a function of the FPTP/PR effect.
    I don't buy that. Plenty of other very expensive green arguments have been won in this country in the mainstream whilst we have had a FPTP system in place over the last 2-3 decades.

    UK is leading edge for large European countries on green initiatives / delivering results.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The two things that could get Boris:

    1. A severe recession/inflation spike/interest rate hikes/cost of living etc

    2. The "green crap" as Cameron put it. Or rather the cost of the "green crap" which really ties in to one. However, I assume they'll be sensible enough to push most of the costs beyond 2023 lol!

    The brown crap is more of a problem currently.
    Southern water has finally, after three months’ effort, managed to stop the sewer running down my road every time we have heavy rain. Pumping it out to sea isn’t ideal but I’d choose it over pumping it through my garden and along the road into the gardens below.
    But some way below directly into your house I assume?
    My house is 200 metres from the sea in a straight line, and now that Southern water has resumed directing the sewage toward the sea in a straight line, rather than through my garden, I am relatively happy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Whereas you have.... what? How would you estimate your own intelligence by this metric?

    Serious question
    To be honest, I think that question goes to the heart of what intelligence might be.

    I always did well at school, and seem to have an ability to join the dots and see the big picture in most situations, such that I am able to learn new things quickly and understand the basics of new fields after the minimum of study.

    Yet I have always marvelled at those people who seem able to become true experts in subjects at depth, and I have generally failed whenever I have tried to follow them down such a path. I know a little about a lot but a lot about a little. Indeed my life is a story of using my skills as a generalist and avoiding choices that would involve competing with people who have deep understanding of narrow fields.

    I should have been one of those eighteenth or nineteenth century gentlemen who quickly got to the limits of knowledge in their fields because not that much was known. But nowadays, it takes a serious degree of application to get to the limits of knowledge in any field, and the effort required has so far eluded me.

    Hence I am reduced to debating nighttime on PB with you, wondering whether your wine bottle is as empty as mine.
    I would say, forensically (and I am quite good at this - it's a parlour game) that you have an IQ of about 125-130. Definitely highly intelligent, but also intelligent enough to know you are no game-changer. My IQ is ~140. I am clearly and significantly smarter than you

    However I am also drunker than you, generally, and that is a handicap

    I am also prone to insane mood swings, which is a further handicap, and has probably led me to not quite fulfilling my potential. On the other hand, I have had a fucking laugh and a half, and many many women, so there is that
  • HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Quite.

    And Corbyn is another who is middling to mediocre.
    The most intelligent PM of my lifetime on paper was Gordon Brown. The most intelligent Tory leader of my lifetime was William Hague.

    Enough said. High intelligence may make you a brilliant professor, QC or surgeon it does not guarantee success in much else.

    Drive and judgement are more important
    Depends on your age, but Wilson was most intelligent. Youngest Oxford don.

    And if you think Brown didn't have drive, I have a couple of bridges to sell you.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    MattW said:

    Age related data

    image

    Argh. I've been triggered.

    We have Rainbow Graphs.
    Though they do show the age group trends better....
  • MattW said:

    Age related data

    image

    Argh. I've been triggered.

    We have Rainbow Graphs.
    10 14 is the Liberal 'Winning Here' bar, right?

    Am I doing this correctly?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Whereas you have.... what? How would you estimate your own intelligence by this metric?

    Serious question
    To be honest, I think that question goes to the heart of what intelligence might be.

    I always did well at school, and seem to have an ability to join the dots and see the big picture in most situations, such that I am able to learn new things quickly and understand the basics of new fields after the minimum of study.

    Yet I have always marvelled at those people who seem able to become true experts in subjects at depth, and I have generally failed whenever I have tried to follow them down such a path. I know a little about a lot but a lot about a little. Indeed my life is a story of using my skills as a generalist and avoiding choices that would involve competing with people who have deep understanding of narrow fields.

    I should have been one of those eighteenth or nineteenth century gentlemen who quickly got to the limits of knowledge in their fields because not that much was known. But nowadays, it takes a serious degree of application to get to the limits of knowledge in any field, and the effort required has so far eluded me.

    Hence I am reduced to debating nighttime on PB with you, wondering whether your wine bottle is as empty as mine.
    I would say, forensically (and I am quite good at this - it's a parlour game) that you have an IQ of about 125-130. Definitely highly intelligent, but also intelligent enough to know you are no game-changer. My IQ is ~140. I am clearly and significantly smarter than you

    However I am also drunker than you, generally, and that is a handicap

    I am also prone to insane mood swings, which is a further handicap, and has probably led me to not quite fulfilling my potential. On the other hand, I have had a fucking laugh and a half, and many many women, so there is that
    Yet you haven’t met many women who would have you again, which is the pertinent point.

    I will settle for being less intelligent than you when the wine bottle is empty, knowing that the reverse will be true tomorrow morning.

    But largely because I think IQ measures intelligence in breadth rather than depth.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited November 2021
    I can only remember taking one IQ test in my life, or at least only one with the traditional scoring system. I remember being a bit disappointed at the outcome, so I resolved to show my intelligence by not taking another so I could imagine it as high or low as I wanted, depending how confident or faux-humble I wanted to feel at any given moment.

    In some ways it must be very frustrating for the true genuises out there, as others fail to grasp what seems so straightforward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Quite.

    And Corbyn is another who is middling to mediocre.
    The most intelligent PM of my lifetime on paper was Gordon Brown. The most intelligent Tory leader of my lifetime was William Hague.

    Enough said. High intelligence may make you a brilliant professor, QC or surgeon it does not guarantee success in much else.

    Drive and judgement are more important
    Depends on your age, but Wilson was most intelligent. Youngest Oxford don.

    And if you think Brown didn't have drive, I have a couple of bridges to sell you.
    Even Wilson was only a middle ranking PM and left a sluggish economy in urgent need of Thatcher's reforms.

    Brown may have had drive, that did not mean he always had judgement
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    So what, there is no high IQ or Oxbridge graduate requirement to become an MP or peer.

    Both however have decades of experience of the political and legislative process
    It is important that all demographics are represented in the Lords, including morons, waitress, electoral failures and scoundrels. Certainly that is Johnsons approach, so why not IDS and Jezza too?
    You were working as a waitress in a cocktail bar
    When I met you
    I picked you out, I shook you up
    And ennobled you.
    Wastrels! Bloody autocorrect, aided by a large glass of red.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125
    edited November 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    The HOL needs either abolitioning or elected on a fair bases, and not a place for politicians to retire to and earn £300 a day
    Another Corbyn policy looking better and better. They're like fine wines.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Whereas you have.... what? How would you estimate your own intelligence by this metric?

    Serious question
    To be honest, I think that question goes to the heart of what intelligence might be.

    I always did well at school, and seem to have an ability to join the dots and see the big picture in most situations, such that I am able to learn new things quickly and understand the basics of new fields after the minimum of study.

    Yet I have always marvelled at those people who seem able to become true experts in subjects at depth, and I have generally failed whenever I have tried to follow them down such a path. I know a little about a lot but a lot about a little. Indeed my life is a story of using my skills as a generalist and avoiding choices that would involve competing with people who have deep understanding of narrow fields.

    I should have been one of those eighteenth or nineteenth century gentlemen who quickly got to the limits of knowledge in their fields because not that much was known. But nowadays, it takes a serious degree of application to get to the limits of knowledge in any field, and the effort required has so far eluded me.

    Hence I am reduced to debating nighttime on PB with you, wondering whether your wine bottle is as empty as mine.
    I would say, forensically (and I am quite good at this - it's a parlour game) that you have an IQ of about 125-130. Definitely highly intelligent, but also intelligent enough to know you are no game-changer. My IQ is ~140. I am clearly and significantly smarter than you

    However I am also drunker than you, generally, and that is a handicap

    I am also prone to insane mood swings, which is a further handicap, and has probably led me to not quite fulfilling my potential. On the other hand, I have had a fucking laugh and a half, and many many women, so there is that
    My IQ is at least 150. So there!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Quite.

    And Corbyn is another who is middling to mediocre.
    The most intelligent PM of my lifetime on paper was Gordon Brown. The most intelligent Tory leader of my lifetime was William Hague.

    Enough said. High intelligence may make you a brilliant professor, QC or surgeon it does not guarantee success in much else.

    Drive and judgement are more important
    Depends on your age, but Wilson was most intelligent. Youngest Oxford don.

    And if you think Brown didn't have drive, I have a couple of bridges to sell you.
    Whereas now we have a wannabe Wilson without the brains.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    MattW said:

    Age related data

    image

    Argh. I've been triggered.

    We have Rainbow Graphs.
    10 14 is the Liberal 'Winning Here' bar, right?

    Am I doing this correctly?
    Careful...

    When Clegg joined Facebook he handed over the rights to the Top SekRit Lib Dem Barchart technology.

    So if you you say "Winning Here" in the context of bar charts, black helicopters full of lawyers will hunt you down.....
  • Scott_xP said:
    Standard Boris for NHS photo-op – jacket off, sleeves rolled up and tie tucked in as if he has just delivered a baby in the car park.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Quite.

    And Corbyn is another who is middling to mediocre.
    The most intelligent PM of my lifetime on paper was Gordon Brown. The most intelligent Tory leader of my lifetime was William Hague.

    Enough said. High intelligence may make you a brilliant professor, QC or surgeon it does not guarantee success in much else.

    Drive and judgement are more important
    Depends on your age, but Wilson was most intelligent. Youngest Oxford don.

    And if you think Brown didn't have drive, I have a couple of bridges to sell you.
    Surely true intelligence is a combination of many many things. Speed of thought processing is absolutely fundamental ("G", as it is known), that is *pure* intelligence, if such a thing exists.

    But political intelligence also requires many more things: strategic vision, tactical nous, the ability to sense public feelings, emotional acuity and insight - the talent to make allies, but also the ruthlessness to drop them when necessary. A scientific eye also helps. Likewise a lawyerly gaze. You can weigh evidence

    Of all the post war prime ministers I would say Thatcher had the most of these (but not all), followed by Blair

    Unsurprisingly, she is now our most revered ex prime minister, and Blair is still admired by many despite the horror of Iraq
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Scott_xP said:
    Standard Boris for NHS photo-op – jacket off, sleeves rolled up and tie tucked in as if he has just delivered a baby in the car park.
    Wot, no hard hat or hi viz? Standards are slipping!
  • The glass is almost always half empty. I'm emptying it into my mouth.

    It's only half full if I stop filling it halfway, and who the hell does that if the bottle isn't empty?

    And when the bottle's empty, why would I care about the fucking glass?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,347


    Serious question

    To be honest, I think that question goes to the heart of what intelligence might be.

    I always did well at school, and seem to have an ability to join the dots and see the big picture in most situations, such that I am able to learn new things quickly and understand the basics of new fields after the minimum of study.

    Yet I have always marvelled at those people who seem able to become true experts in subjects at depth, and I have generally failed whenever I have tried to follow them down such a path. I know a little about a lot but a lot about a little. Indeed my life is a story of using my skills as a generalist and avoiding choices that would involve competing with people who have deep understanding of narrow fields.

    I should have been one of those eighteenth or nineteenth century gentlemen who quickly got to the limits of knowledge in their fields because not that much was known. But nowadays, it takes a serious degree of application to get to the limits of knowledge in any field, and the effort required has so far eluded me.

    Hence I am reduced to debating nighttime on PB with you, wondering whether your wine bottle is as empty as mine.

    Adopting von Moltke's dictum, as an intelligent generalist, without having the ability to become an expert in a specifice field, you'd be an ideal commander, because you could see the big picture, but you owuld also know how to delegate. Whereas the more intelligent experts would be the staff officers, who could work up your ideas into detailed plans.
  • Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Standard Boris for NHS photo-op – jacket off, sleeves rolled up and tie tucked in as if he has just delivered made a baby in the car park.
    FTFY
    Great minds...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited November 2021
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    The HOL needs either abolitioning or elected on a fair bases, and not a place for politicians to retire to and earn £300 a day
    Another Corbyn policy looking better and better. They're like fine wines.
    Appreciated mostly by snobs rich enough to afford the costs?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Quincel said:

    Leaving aside the current polls, I strongly suspect that Altrincham and Sale West will go red next election unless the Tories win nationally by at least double digits. Demographically it's exactly the sort of young professional gentrifying suburb which is swinging hard away from the Tories for a decade or so, the flip side to the (more numerous) seats with white working class voters they are gaining.

    This is a seat I'm planning on doing a thread on.

    Is about the Green dynamic, is it places like this where the Green surge damages Labour badly.
    The Greens polling figures strike me as being more about the brand recognition rather than the qualities of their largely unknown new co-leaders.
    Yes, and the COP26 publicity.
    That and the pumping sewage into the rivers story.
    The Rivers one was in large measure fake (or at least heavily spun) news. Generate some meaningless big scary numbers and shout through a megaphone to scare people, with no examination whatsoever of practicality or costs, and no context or engagement with reality. Just another Green outrage bus.

    No comparisons with similar countries - the same issue is in other countries, and Scotland has twice as many combined sewer outfalls per pop as England. But obvs SNP politics is 90% finger pointing, and 10% doing useful stuff for Scotland. So that was Blackford's speech.

    Just how they all roll.
    That's an interesting take. Everybody else is dumping raw sewage into their rivers and sea, so why shouldn't we?
    Not my take.

    My take is tackle it carefully, properly and rationally, rather than populism and scaremongering. Which is what we had on that issue.

    That is UK Green Party style, rather than German Green Party style.

    Which is why the UK Green Parties are essentially self-marginalised and irrelevant (except a bit of influence propping up the ScotGov), and the German Greens are a major player in Government.
    I would say that is mostly a function of the FPTP/PR effect.
    I don't buy that. Plenty of other very expensive green arguments have been won in this country in the mainstream whilst we have had a FPTP system in place over the last 2-3 decades.

    UK is leading edge for large European countries on green initiatives / delivering results.
    My point was rather that, given the German system, the Greens in the UK would be eyeing up a place in government right now on current polling.
    Whereas, in Westminster, they are an irrelevance of 1, and my money would be on them continuing to be so.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly a number of Tory MPs would lose their seats if Mori is correct. Indeed the Conservatives would not have a single seat left in inner London. Though I suspect IDS would stand down beforehand and head to the Lords.

    We would also be back to a hung parliament, only this time with the SNP, not the DUP or LDs, as Kingmakers

    And you have just made the case why the lords should be abolished

    IDS automatically goes to the unelected Lords after he decides to stand down

    More sleaze
    I don't see why.

    He is a former Cabinet Minister and party leader, exactly the type who should be part of the Lords as well as the high flyers from other professions, business, the arts, sport, religious leaders etc
    Yes, I agree

    IDS is exactly the kind of person you want in the Lords, if you want senior politicians. Thoughtful, hard working, experienced at a very high level, has done good work on poverty, and he represents a big strand of opinion in British life. Why would he not be an asset in a sensible, law-modifying 2nd chamber?

    I would say the same for Jeremy Corbyn. I despise his politics, but he has never broken the law, and he is clearly popular with many, and represents a definite slice of British politics. And he has wisdom (of his own kind) after many years. Put him in the Lords, too. This is not a party political thing. If you have an appointed revising 2nd chamber then these people should be in it
    Intelligence is no longer a criterion, then?
    I think that is unfair. Both IDS and Corbyn may be highly intelligent - at least more intelligent than any of us on here. But it is the nature of both political conviction and ideology that it often masks intelligence. I agree with Leon that both would benefit the Lords although I suspect in the case of Corbyn he would not choose to accept.
    I can’t speak for Corbyn. But twenty four years as a Redbridge councillor entitles me to tell you that IDS is not an intelligent man.
    I will have to take your word for it as like most I have only ever seen him from afar.
    He has the intelligence of a mid ranking army officer. Which is not nothing, but is not something either.
    Quite.

    And Corbyn is another who is middling to mediocre.
    The most intelligent PM of my lifetime on paper was Gordon Brown. The most intelligent Tory leader of my lifetime was William Hague.

    Enough said. High intelligence may make you a brilliant professor, QC or surgeon it does not guarantee success in much else.

    Drive and judgement are more important
    Depends on your age, but Wilson was most intelligent. Youngest Oxford don.

    And if you think Brown didn't have drive, I have a couple of bridges to sell you.
    A decade to get a PhD? In the history of Marxism in the Labour Party?

    Not sure that Brown was exactly a driven genius...
  • kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    Just to make sure I am getting this right:

    We have a right to an opinion that when an 18 year old tennis player has won 2 matches and lost 2 matches we can say she is not doing well and attribute that to a specific cause.

    However we do not have the right to a critical opinion when an experienced sports manager fundamentally misunderstands the career path of a young player in a different sport?

    Who is the real snowflake here? If Jones can dish it out, he should be quite happy to receive incoming, especially when he is in the wrong as he was today.
    Agreed except he might be right in the ER sacked her coach after the US Open, did a bunch of non-tennis celebrity appearances before Indian Wells and *might* have been seeing granny in Romania (though to my untrained eye she seemed to be puffing a bit so it could just have been missing a coach, in which case Jones was wrong).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    Sean_F said:



    Serious question

    To be honest, I think that question goes to the heart of what intelligence might be.

    I always did well at school, and seem to have an ability to join the dots and see the big picture in most situations, such that I am able to learn new things quickly and understand the basics of new fields after the minimum of study.

    Yet I have always marvelled at those people who seem able to become true experts in subjects at depth, and I have generally failed whenever I have tried to follow them down such a path. I know a little about a lot but a lot about a little. Indeed my life is a story of using my skills as a generalist and avoiding choices that would involve competing with people who have deep understanding of narrow fields.

    I should have been one of those eighteenth or nineteenth century gentlemen who quickly got to the limits of knowledge in their fields because not that much was known. But nowadays, it takes a serious degree of application to get to the limits of knowledge in any field, and the effort required has so far eluded me.

    Hence I am reduced to debating nighttime on PB with you, wondering whether your wine bottle is as empty as mine.

    Adopting von Moltke's dictum, as an intelligent generalist, without having the ability to become an expert in a specifice field, you'd be an ideal commander, because you could see the big picture, but you owuld also know how to delegate. Whereas the more intelligent experts would be the staff officers, who could work up your ideas into detailed plans.

    I though the most intelligent went into the railway section of the Imperial German Staff? And went insane trying to create the perfect timetable for war....
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Watching the news this evening (something that I do increasingly little nowadays, to the overall benefit of my mental wellbeing,) the next juggernaut coming round the corner after spats about sleaze and over the success/failure of the Glasgow summit, is this migrant situation brewing in Eastern Europe. There are now substantial numbers of people - several thousand, and increasing all the time - sat in Belarus on the border with Poland, the Poles are refusing to let them in, temperatures in that part of the world are hovering around freezing, and will presumably get significantly worse before too much longer. How that all ends is anyone's guess, but it looks pretty grim.
This discussion has been closed.