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The MPs in danger if the election went as today’s Ipsos poll – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 8 in General
imageThe MPs in danger if the election went as today’s Ipsos poll – politicalbetting.com

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  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,522
    First
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961
    Test
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,254
    Keep dreaming LAB supporters! :lol:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,353
    Broken sleazy, corrupt Tories on the slide.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492
    Esher and Walton
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Graham Brady.....that should concentrate a few minds....

    Meanwhile....

    Sixteen days in a row of English cases contracting relative to 7 days before is the longest continuous run of contractions since February 2021 - when we were in full lockdown.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1457777518665101315?s=20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    Excellent header.

    Might concentrate a few Tory minds tonight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    edited November 8
    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    How much swingback is typical from the midterm polls to election day?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492

    How much swingback is typical from the midterm polls to election day?

    Good question, it would be an interesting exercise to undertake. Someone somewhere has probably done it
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited November 8
    Deleted
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,577
    SNP gain Orkney n Shetland. Not happened before?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,432
    kle4 said:

    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.

    Only here could that be a pet peeve!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    kle4 said:

    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.

    Most recent should be at the top.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Been looking at the 2019 GE - St Albans is the only seat the LDs won then which they had never held previously, which is an interesting contrast withplaces like North East Fife, held for decades but or an SNP blip. St Albans looks like a seat where they had built into a strong second, collapsed in 2015, but unlike most places they recovered that second quickly.
    IshmaelZ said:

    SNP gain Orkney n Shetland. Not happened before?

    I'd say so - it's been Liberal since 1950!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.

    Most recent should be at the top.
    Agreed, but at least be consistent if you won't do that!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    FTPT
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?

    Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that?
    It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.

    "Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.

    I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
    So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS?
    Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.

    Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.

    The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.

    Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.

    Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
    Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.

    Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.

    But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
    Lol.
    Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns.
    Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument.
    Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.

    Got to laugh, really.
    Still no graphs.

    Sorry to hear about your son.
    If you want more graphs, why not go and get them yourself? The site from where they’re sourced is on all of them. I haven’t got the time or inclination to run around getting them for you. After all, I’ve concluded that you’re not amenable to evidence, so why would I waste my time (and yours) on it any further?

    And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
    Glad to hear it.

    I just posted the excess death stats. Sweden was 109 (excess deaths per 100,000) while most of non-Scandi Europe was above and Sweden's nearest neighbours well below.

    Sweden on excess deaths = top of the pack EU-wide and bottom of the pack Scandi-wide.

    Doesn't excess deaths control for all those factors that have been pointed out contribute to Sweden's Covid performance.
    No, excess deaths does not control for factors like single occupancy and lack of intergenerational family units.

    To demonstrate this think of a extremely deadly and highly transmissible virus that only killed native French speakers.

    France introduces a draconian lockdown and still suffers high level of deaths, massive excess mortality.

    Sweden introduces no restrictions and barely anyone dies. Barely a ripple of excess mortality.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.

    Only here could that be a pet peeve!
    You're right, most of the internet is less restrained and so would describe it for what is truly is - a travesty and outrage.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,348
    Evening all :)

    While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.

    There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.

    In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.

    In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:

    Changes from the July 2021 election:

    GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
    Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
    We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
    There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
    Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
    Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
    Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)

    It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.

    The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.

    There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.

    In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.

    In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:

    Changes from the July 2021 election:

    GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
    Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
    We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
    There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
    Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
    Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
    Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)

    It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.

    The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.

    While two of them are getting big swings it doesn't seem on the face of it that just making people vote over and over again causes them to change their minds. Politicians need to work harder when given such a result, if they have a system which translates seats in some proportional way.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    Sorry if this has already been posted, but the polling for Biden and Harris today looks dire for the Dems' prospects next year:

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/08/biden-disapproval-near-60-percent-most-say-no-to-reelection-bid/

    Nearly half voters say Biden is worse than expected, and over half think he is not focussed on the important issues.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.

    There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.

    In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.

    In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:

    Changes from the July 2021 election:

    GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
    Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
    We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
    There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
    Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
    Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
    Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)

    It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.

    The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.

    Love the party names.

    Imagine the UK versions.

    Labour Party for Equity Amongst The People

    Freedom Party for Liberal People Who Value Rights and Freedoms

    Stand Up for Badgers and Foxes and Other Smaller Animals

    Movement for Brave Scotland and Trainspotting
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    Scott_xP said:
    If he's going to walk around without a mask, which is perfectly reasonable, he should change the advice so that nobody is expected to walk around with a mask in healthcare settings.

    Until then, he should follow his own rules. Even if they're stupid rules.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    Scott_xP said:
    The other people in that photo are 'little', and very unlikely to be party donors.

    I just don't know why journalists have still not understood the new order.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    edited November 8

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.

    There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.

    In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.

    In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:

    Changes from the July 2021 election:

    GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
    Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
    We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
    There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
    Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
    Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
    Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)

    It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.

    The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.

    Love the party names.

    Imagine the UK versions.

    Labour Party for Equity Amongst The People

    Freedom Party for Liberal People Who Value Rights and Freedoms

    Stand Up for Badgers and Foxes and Other Smaller Animals

    Movement for Brave Scotland and Trainspotting
    I think Blackadder prophesised it with the 'Standing at the back dressed stupidly and looking stupid party' and 'Keep royalty white, rat catching and safe sewage residents party'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    TimT said:

    Sorry if this has already been posted, but the polling for Biden and Harris today looks dire for the Dems' prospects next year:

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/08/biden-disapproval-near-60-percent-most-say-no-to-reelection-bid/

    Nearly half voters say Biden is worse than expected, and over half think he is not focussed on the important issues.

    See my post earlier about Mark Penn's Op-Ed in NYTimes.

    TL;DR - Head for the centre now Biden, as fast as you can and ditch AOC.



    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/08/opinion/biden-democrats-2022-2024.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.

    There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.

    In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.

    In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:

    Changes from the July 2021 election:

    GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
    Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
    We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
    There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
    Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
    Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
    Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)

    It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.

    The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.

    Love the party names.

    Imagine the UK versions.

    Labour Party for Equity Amongst The People

    Freedom Party for Liberal People Who Value Rights and Freedoms

    Stand Up for Badgers and Foxes and Other Smaller Animals

    Movement for Brave Scotland and Trainspotting
    I think Blackadder prophesised it with the 'Standing at the back dressed stupidly and looking stupid party' and 'Keep royalty white, rat catching and safe sewage residents party'
    Sewage Party fits the current Johnsonian Tories very nicely.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    Yes, that's a fairer comment. To be fair, I expect Raducanu to come good, and I can certainly forgive her for enjoying the moment, but if she was under any illusion about how fine the margins are at the top, she won't be now.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    TimT said:

    Sorry if this has already been posted, but the polling for Biden and Harris today looks dire for the Dems' prospects next year:

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/08/biden-disapproval-near-60-percent-most-say-no-to-reelection-bid/

    Nearly half voters say Biden is worse than expected, and over half think he is not focussed on the important issues.

    See my post earlier about Mark Penn's Op-Ed in NYTimes.

    TL;DR - Head for the centre now Biden, as fast as you can and ditch AOC.



    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/08/opinion/biden-democrats-2022-2024.html
    Sadly it's not going to happen - but the Democrats need to change tack quickly.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,348
    kle4 said:


    While two of them are getting big swings it doesn't seem on the face of it that just making people vote over and over again causes them to change their minds. Politicians need to work harder when given such a result, if they have a system which translates seats in some proportional way.

    PP are the new kids on the block - only formed on 17th September and led by the economy and finance ministers from the former caretaker Government.

    I've also just realised the Gallup poll is ancient history (fieldwork 24-31/10) an we have a new poll from Market Data as follows:

    GERB-SDS 23%
    We Continue the Change: 16.3%
    Socialists: 12.1%
    Movement of Rights and Freedoms: 11.2%
    Democratic Bulgaria: 10.5%
    There is Such a Nation: 9.7%

    On that basis, the new PP party will lead the opposition to Borisov and could yet take over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    edited November 8
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    Yes, that's a fairer comment. To be fair, I expect Raducanu to come good, and I can certainly forgive her for enjoying the moment, but if she was under any illusion about how fine the margins are at the top, she won't be now.
    If an 18 year could get on top of the world like that and not find themselves a bit disrupted at it all they'd be disqualified from future competition for being a cyborg.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    I must have missed that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    He's entitled to his opinion but it is an ugly one. It is unhelpfully specific, it has the faint whiff of misogyny, and it is also completely wrong: there is zero evidence of Marcus Smith being a showboater. Quite the opposite. All his colleagues say he is very humble and totally dedicated. And Raducanu has not played a major since the US Open, either

    Eddie Jones is a pillock
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,577

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.

    There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.

    In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.

    In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:

    Changes from the July 2021 election:

    GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
    Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
    We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
    There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
    Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
    Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
    Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)

    It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.

    The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.

    Love the party names.

    Imagine the UK versions.

    Labour Party for Equity Amongst The People

    Freedom Party for Liberal People Who Value Rights and Freedoms

    Stand Up for Badgers and Foxes and Other Smaller Animals

    Movement for Brave Scotland and Trainspotting
    There is Such a Nation vwould be a good subtitle for Plaid Cymru
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 986

    Scott_xP said:
    The other people in that photo are 'little', and very unlikely to be party donors.

    I just don't know why journalists have still not understood the new order.

    He should have known that if he wasn't wearing one even for a brief moment it was going to be photographed. They are watching him like a hawk especially after pictured not wearing a mask at that COP 26 event recently sat next to a 95 year old Attenborough.

    In a Health care setting like a Hospital you should be wearing a mask at all times. What an selfish idiot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    He's entitled to his opinion but it is an ugly one. It is unhelpfully specific, it has the faint whiff of misogyny, and it is also completely wrong: there is zero evidence of Marcus Smith being a showboater. Quite the opposite. All his colleagues say he is very humble and totally dedicated. And Raducanu has not played a major since the US Open, either

    Eddie Jones is a pillock
    I agree I don't see why he needed to get specific - and Raducanu has only played a few times since the US Open, so a bit early to draw any conclusions - but I just cannot summon outrage either.
  • tlg86 said:
    Oh dear he's going to be a litigant-in-person, that's never a good sign.

    Plus an excuse to post this, Nicholas Soames is a real miss in the Commons.

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/21/adam-afriyie-nicholas-soames_n_4134750.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    It's tougher than Chesham & Amersham but it would be a prime target for the Lib Dems in any by-election.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,715
    kle4 said:

    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.

    You can edit Wikipedia, you know.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    He's entitled to his opinion but it is an ugly one. It is unhelpfully specific, it has the faint whiff of misogyny, and it is also completely wrong: there is zero evidence of Marcus Smith being a showboater. Quite the opposite. All his colleagues say he is very humble and totally dedicated. And Raducanu has not played a major since the US Open, either

    Eddie Jones is a pillock
    I agree I don't see why he needed to get specific - and Raducanu has only played a few times since the US Open, so a bit early to draw any conclusions - but I just cannot summon outrage either.
    Everyone should leave Raducanu alone. Mostly the same for Marcus Smith.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    He's entitled to his opinion but it is an ugly one. It is unhelpfully specific, it has the faint whiff of misogyny, and it is also completely wrong: there is zero evidence of Marcus Smith being a showboater. Quite the opposite. All his colleagues say he is very humble and totally dedicated. And Raducanu has not played a major since the US Open, either

    Eddie Jones is a pillock
    I agree I don't see why he needed to get specific - and Raducanu has only played a few times since the US Open, so a bit early to draw any conclusions - but I just cannot summon outrage either.
    I think he touched my gallantry button. It's never good to specifically attack another athlete - especially one in an entirely different sport

    it is particularly bad if that other athlete is, you know, really HOT
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    jonny83 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The other people in that photo are 'little', and very unlikely to be party donors.

    I just don't know why journalists have still not understood the new order.

    He should have known that if he wasn't wearing one even for a brief moment it was going to be photographed. They are watching him like a hawk especially after pictured not wearing a mask at that COP 26 event recently sat next to a 95 year old Attenborough.

    In a Health care setting like a Hospital you should be wearing a mask at all times. What an selfish idiot.
    Yes I've been to the local hospital a few times recently, it's the one place I 100% wear a mask.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    kle4 said:

    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.

    You can edit Wikipedia, you know.
    I have, but even I'm not going to check the pages of every current constituency, and every historic constituency.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    The hospital trust might have said Boris Johnson followed “strict procedures” on his visit but it looks like he broke their official guidance... http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-slammed-parading-25410257.amp https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1457801902968565761/photo/1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,078
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?

    Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that?
    It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.

    "Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.

    I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
    So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS?
    Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.

    Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.

    The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.

    Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.

    Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
    Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.

    Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.

    But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
    Lol.
    Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns.
    Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument.
    Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.

    Got to laugh, really.
    Still no graphs.

    Sorry to hear about your son.
    If you want more graphs, why not go and get them yourself? The site from where they’re sourced is on all of them. I haven’t got the time or inclination to run around getting them for you. After all, I’ve concluded that you’re not amenable to evidence, so why would I waste my time (and yours) on it any further?

    And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
    Glad to hear it.

    I just posted the excess death stats. Sweden was 109 (excess deaths per 100,000) while most of non-Scandi Europe was above and Sweden's nearest neighbours well below.

    Sweden on excess deaths = top of the pack EU-wide and bottom of the pack Scandi-wide.

    Doesn't excess deaths control for all those factors that have been pointed out contribute to Sweden's Covid performance.
    No, excess deaths does not control for factors like single occupancy and lack of intergenerational family units.

    To demonstrate this think of a extremely deadly and highly transmissible virus that only killed native French speakers.

    France introduces a draconian lockdown and still suffers high level of deaths, massive excess mortality.

    Sweden introduces no restrictions and barely anyone dies. Barely a ripple of excess mortality.
    FFS, don't give @TSE ideas!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191

    tlg86 said:
    Oh dear he's going to be a litigant-in-person, that's never a good sign.

    Plus an excuse to post this, Nicholas Soames is a real miss in the Commons.

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/21/adam-afriyie-nicholas-soames_n_4134750.html
    It is amusing how Soames was so vitriolically foul mouthed against anyone who was "disloyal" voting against the whip when the whip matched what he wanted, only to end up getting kicked out of the party because he voted against it after it was called a matter of confidence.

    Didn't like the shoe being on the other foot it seems.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    BoZo ran away from the debate. he should have hid in a fridge, Instead he got his vanity photographer to take a picture of him breaking Covid rules in a hospital.

    I know he's a twat, but he is really pulling out all the stops today...

    https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1457779958751776771/photo/1


  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sorry if this has already been posted, but the polling for Biden and Harris today looks dire for the Dems' prospects next year:

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/08/biden-disapproval-near-60-percent-most-say-no-to-reelection-bid/

    Nearly half voters say Biden is worse than expected, and over half think he is not focussed on the important issues.

    See my post earlier about Mark Penn's Op-Ed in NYTimes.

    TL;DR - Head for the centre now Biden, as fast as you can and ditch AOC.



    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/08/opinion/biden-democrats-2022-2024.html
    Sadly it's not going to happen - but the Democrats need to change tack quickly.
    Yep, good OpEd. I forget who it was on here going on about how the electorate loved the Build Back Better program. Well, yes, they like each of the components in principle, but a $5 trillion bill when combined with the Infrastructure Bill was always going to turn off the middle classes, as they know they are the ones who will end up paying for unfunded government spending.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.

    You can edit Wikipedia, you know.
    I have, but even I'm not going to check the pages of every current constituency, and every historic constituency.
    And you call yourself a political geek.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,078
    Pulpstar said:

    jonny83 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The other people in that photo are 'little', and very unlikely to be party donors.

    I just don't know why journalists have still not understood the new order.

    He should have known that if he wasn't wearing one even for a brief moment it was going to be photographed. They are watching him like a hawk especially after pictured not wearing a mask at that COP 26 event recently sat next to a 95 year old Attenborough.

    In a Health care setting like a Hospital you should be wearing a mask at all times. What an selfish idiot.
    Yes I've been to the local hospital a few times recently, it's the one place I 100% wear a mask.
    I take it you mean, wear it 100% of the time? Rather than 100% of you is covered by a mask?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    He's entitled to his opinion but it is an ugly one. It is unhelpfully specific, it has the faint whiff of misogyny, and it is also completely wrong: there is zero evidence of Marcus Smith being a showboater. Quite the opposite. All his colleagues say he is very humble and totally dedicated. And Raducanu has not played a major since the US Open, either

    Eddie Jones is a pillock
    I agree I don't see why he needed to get specific - and Raducanu has only played a few times since the US Open, so a bit early to draw any conclusions - but I just cannot summon outrage either.
    Everyone should leave Raducanu alone. Mostly the same for Marcus Smith.
    Quite. We are blessed with two amazingly talented young athletes who have the capability to be very famous, if not dominant, in their respective sports. They will make mistakes, but they just need to be given a bit of space.

    Raducanu is merely 18 FFS. She is allowed to be a very young woman enjoying herself. Not an automaton practising 23/7, at least for a year or two

    Meanwhile, if Jones wants to see Smith develop, he should put him in the England team to start against Oz. He is clearly good enough, he is outrageously good, so give him the proper responsibility
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I was surprised the LDs did not win Cheltenham or Carshalton and Wallington in 2019 in any case. The latter in particular.

    Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.

    Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!

    Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.

    You can edit Wikipedia, you know.
    I have, but even I'm not going to check the pages of every current constituency, and every historic constituency.
    And you call yourself a political geek.
    Nah, I'm a cool dude, daddio, you geeks are lucky to see me here.
  • ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?

    Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that?
    It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.

    "Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.

    I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
    So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS?
    Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.

    Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.

    The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.

    Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.

    Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
    Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.

    Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.

    But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
    Lol.
    Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns.
    Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument.
    Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.

    Got to laugh, really.
    Still no graphs.

    Sorry to hear about your son.
    If you want more graphs, why not go and get them yourself? The site from where they’re sourced is on all of them. I haven’t got the time or inclination to run around getting them for you. After all, I’ve concluded that you’re not amenable to evidence, so why would I waste my time (and yours) on it any further?

    And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
    Glad to hear it.

    I just posted the excess death stats. Sweden was 109 (excess deaths per 100,000) while most of non-Scandi Europe was above and Sweden's nearest neighbours well below.

    Sweden on excess deaths = top of the pack EU-wide and bottom of the pack Scandi-wide.

    Doesn't excess deaths control for all those factors that have been pointed out contribute to Sweden's Covid performance.
    No, excess deaths does not control for factors like single occupancy and lack of intergenerational family units.

    To demonstrate this think of a extremely deadly and highly transmissible virus that only killed native French speakers.

    France introduces a draconian lockdown and still suffers high level of deaths, massive excess mortality.

    Sweden introduces no restrictions and barely anyone dies. Barely a ripple of excess mortality.
    FFS, don't give @TSE ideas!
    I'm spending over two weeks in France next summer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,078

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?

    Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that?
    It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.

    "Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.

    I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
    So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS?
    Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.

    Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.

    The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.

    Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.

    Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
    Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.

    Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.

    But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
    Lol.
    Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns.
    Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument.
    Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.

    Got to laugh, really.
    Still no graphs.

    Sorry to hear about your son.
    If you want more graphs, why not go and get them yourself? The site from where they’re sourced is on all of them. I haven’t got the time or inclination to run around getting them for you. After all, I’ve concluded that you’re not amenable to evidence, so why would I waste my time (and yours) on it any further?

    And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
    Glad to hear it.

    I just posted the excess death stats. Sweden was 109 (excess deaths per 100,000) while most of non-Scandi Europe was above and Sweden's nearest neighbours well below.

    Sweden on excess deaths = top of the pack EU-wide and bottom of the pack Scandi-wide.

    Doesn't excess deaths control for all those factors that have been pointed out contribute to Sweden's Covid performance.
    No, excess deaths does not control for factors like single occupancy and lack of intergenerational family units.

    To demonstrate this think of a extremely deadly and highly transmissible virus that only killed native French speakers.

    France introduces a draconian lockdown and still suffers high level of deaths, massive excess mortality.

    Sweden introduces no restrictions and barely anyone dies. Barely a ripple of excess mortality.
    FFS, don't give @TSE ideas!
    I'm spending over two weeks in France next summer.
    Are you taking this virus with you? Should I warn my cousin by marriage to get out?
  • Scott_xP said:
    The other people in that photo are 'little', and very unlikely to be party donors.

    I just don't know why journalists have still not understood the new order.

    It's the sort of image that has two interpretations.

    One is "Good old Boris, showing what he thinks of petty rules. Like Churchill in the Blitz, only with better hair."

    The other is "What a selfish b&^%^$&+# Johnson is. One rule for us, no rule at all for him."

    Neither of those is completely wrong, and the love and hate shown for BoJo here and elsewhere depend a lot on which of those interpretations speaks to people more. The news agenda certainly chimes more with one than the other, though.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?

    Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that?
    It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.

    "Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.

    I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
    So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS?
    Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.

    Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.

    The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.

    Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.

    Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
    Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.

    Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.

    But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
    Lol.
    Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns.
    Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument.
    Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.

    Got to laugh, really.
    Still no graphs.

    Sorry to hear about your son.
    If you want more graphs, why not go and get them yourself? The site from where they’re sourced is on all of them. I haven’t got the time or inclination to run around getting them for you. After all, I’ve concluded that you’re not amenable to evidence, so why would I waste my time (and yours) on it any further?

    And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
    Glad to hear it.

    I just posted the excess death stats. Sweden was 109 (excess deaths per 100,000) while most of non-Scandi Europe was above and Sweden's nearest neighbours well below.

    Sweden on excess deaths = top of the pack EU-wide and bottom of the pack Scandi-wide.

    Doesn't excess deaths control for all those factors that have been pointed out contribute to Sweden's Covid performance.
    No, excess deaths does not control for factors like single occupancy and lack of intergenerational family units.

    To demonstrate this think of a extremely deadly and highly transmissible virus that only killed native French speakers.

    France introduces a draconian lockdown and still suffers high level of deaths, massive excess mortality.

    Sweden introduces no restrictions and barely anyone dies. Barely a ripple of excess mortality.
    FFS, don't give @TSE ideas!
    I'm spending over two weeks in France next summer.
    Are you taking this virus with you? Should I warn my cousin by marriage to get out?
    It'll be fine.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,357
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    Yes, that's a fairer comment. To be fair, I expect Raducanu to come good, and I can certainly forgive her for enjoying the moment, but if she was under any illusion about how fine the margins are at the top, she won't be now.
    If an 18 year could get on top of the world like that and not find themselves a bit disrupted at it all they'd be disqualified from future competition for being a cyborg.
    I very much hope that Raducanu goes on to win loads of stuff and wins Wimbledon 10 years in a row.

    Sport being what it is, it is always possible that such things will elude her. There are no times when the next Emma Raducanu isn't trying to beat the current one.

    If she didn't ever win another major title her achievement thus far would be startling and staggering and truly historic - putting Massie's match in the shade - even more than if she does.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    edited November 8
    Off topic, Poland has every right to defend its border with Belarus. Makes our immigration issues look like a storm in a teacup.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    after 20 months dealing with Covid, Boris Johnson still doesn’t seem to understand how it’s transmitted https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1457746842616274954/photo/1
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,357

    tlg86 said:
    Oh dear he's going to be a litigant-in-person, that's never a good sign.

    Plus an excuse to post this, Nicholas Soames is a real miss in the Commons.

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/21/adam-afriyie-nicholas-soames_n_4134750.html
    Soames should stop sitting on the fence and tell us what he thinks.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,078
    edited November 8
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, Poland has every right to defend its border with Belarus. Makes our immigration issues look like a storm in a teacup.

    I wonder if Lukashenko isn't making rather an error here. Suppose he pushes several thousand people into cold, impossible conditions, where they can't go forward. They try to turn back. They get stopped. They start rioting. The security forces have to go and deal with that...

    ...leaving his cities vulnerable for the 81% of voters who want him out to stage a revolution.

    But then, the man always was a fool as well as a crook.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    He's entitled to his opinion but it is an ugly one. It is unhelpfully specific, it has the faint whiff of misogyny, and it is also completely wrong: there is zero evidence of Marcus Smith being a showboater. Quite the opposite. All his colleagues say he is very humble and totally dedicated. And Raducanu has not played a major since the US Open, either

    Eddie Jones is a pillock
    I agree I don't see why he needed to get specific - and Raducanu has only played a few times since the US Open, so a bit early to draw any conclusions - but I just cannot summon outrage either.
    Jones being a grade A wanker with a history of stupid outbursts helps the outrage bus.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    Yes, that's a fairer comment. To be fair, I expect Raducanu to come good, and I can certainly forgive her for enjoying the moment, but if she was under any illusion about how fine the margins are at the top, she won't be now.
    If an 18 year could get on top of the world like that and not find themselves a bit disrupted at it all they'd be disqualified from future competition for being a cyborg.
    I very much hope that Raducanu goes on to win loads of stuff and wins Wimbledon 10 years in a row.

    Sport being what it is, it is always possible that such things will elude her. There are no times when the next Emma Raducanu isn't trying to beat the current one.

    If she didn't ever win another major title her achievement thus far would be startling and staggering and truly historic - putting Massie's match in the shade - even more than if she does.

    The first player in the modern era to win a major in either men's or women's from qualifying. Regardless of what else she does or does not do, that puts her in the Pantheon. And to have done if without dropping a set, puts her achievement in the company of the best of the likes of Venus Williams.
  • How much swingback is typical from the midterm polls to election day?

    I don't know, but if C35L36 is as bad as it gets for the government, they can probably be pretty sanguine.

    But the question is- is C35L36 likely to be as bad as it gets for the government? We've seen the gap close by about 2 points a month since June. That has to end sometime, but when?

    As Sir Alexander Kirkland "Alec" Cairncross KCMG FRSE FBA put it:
    A trend is a trend is a trend.
    But the question is, when will it bend?
    Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force
    And come to a premature end?


    After all, the more delayed the swing away from the government, the less time the government has to for swingback to happen.
  • algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There are serious snowflakes in sport these days:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis

    Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones

    The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.


    Jones is bang on the money.

    Whether he is or not I don't get the outrage, he's entitled to his opinion.
    Yes, that's a fairer comment. To be fair, I expect Raducanu to come good, and I can certainly forgive her for enjoying the moment, but if she was under any illusion about how fine the margins are at the top, she won't be now.
    If an 18 year could get on top of the world like that and not find themselves a bit disrupted at it all they'd be disqualified from future competition for being a cyborg.
    I very much hope that Raducanu goes on to win loads of stuff and wins Wimbledon 10 years in a row.

    Sport being what it is, it is always possible that such things will elude her. There are no times when the next Emma Raducanu isn't trying to beat the current one.

    If she didn't ever win another major title her achievement thus far would be startling and staggering and truly historic - putting Massie's match in the shade - even more than if she does.

    I hope she has a long and successful career.

    I have to admit the discussions about her choice of outfits and what it meant have been a highlight during these pandemic times.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    edited November 8
    TimT said:

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sorry if this has already been posted, but the polling for Biden and Harris today looks dire for the Dems' prospects next year:

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/08/biden-disapproval-near-60-percent-most-say-no-to-reelection-bid/

    Nearly half voters say Biden is worse than expected, and over half think he is not focussed on the important issues.

    See my post earlier about Mark Penn's Op-Ed in NYTimes.

    TL;DR - Head for the centre now Biden, as fast as you can and ditch AOC.



    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/08/opinion/biden-democrats-2022-2024.html
    Sadly it's not going to happen - but the Democrats need to change tack quickly.
    Yep, good OpEd. I forget who it was on here going on about how the electorate loved the Build Back Better program. Well, yes, they like each of the components in principle, but a $5 trillion bill when combined with the Infrastructure Bill was always going to turn off the middle classes, as they know they are the ones who will end up paying for unfunded government spending.
    It wasn't unfunded. It was funded by taxing corporartions and the super rich, another policy that polled incredibly well with massive bipartisan support amongst the electorate.

    The just passed infrastructure bill by conteast, so beloved of the Congressional and Senate centerists, is unfunded and adds hundreds of billions to the national debt.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?

    Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that?
    It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.

    "Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.

    I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
    So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS?
    Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.

    Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.

    The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.

    Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.

    Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
    Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.

    Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.

    But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
    Lol.
    Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns.
    Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument.
    Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.

    Got to laugh, really.
    Still no graphs.

    Sorry to hear about your son.
    If you want more graphs, why not go and get them yourself? The site from where they’re sourced is on all of them. I haven’t got the time or inclination to run around getting them for you. After all, I’ve concluded that you’re not amenable to evidence, so why would I waste my time (and yours) on it any further?

    And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
    Glad to hear it.

    I just posted the excess death stats. Sweden was 109 (excess deaths per 100,000) while most of non-Scandi Europe was above and Sweden's nearest neighbours well below.

    Sweden on excess deaths = top of the pack EU-wide and bottom of the pack Scandi-wide.

    Doesn't excess deaths control for all those factors that have been pointed out contribute to Sweden's Covid performance.
    No, excess deaths does not control for factors like single occupancy and lack of intergenerational family units.

    To demonstrate this think of a extremely deadly and highly transmissible virus that only killed native French speakers.

    France introduces a draconian lockdown and still suffers high level of deaths, massive excess mortality.

    Sweden introduces no restrictions and barely anyone dies. Barely a ripple of excess mortality.
    LOL. So everyone says that the only meaningful metric is excess deaths but no. Not for Sweden.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Slightly ominous anecdata from my patch. Numbers of covid patients fractionally down on the week. 45% double vaxxed (not surprisingly perhaps) but 13% treble vaxxed. 9 of 11 in with covid 19 disease as primary diagnosis. Only one confirmed flu case, and 16 RSV.

    Nice to see Loughbough going red, it is a real bellwether seat...

  • How much swingback is typical from the midterm polls to election day?

    To reduce swingback, consume more zweiback! Or is it the other way around?
  • What do people think will be Labour's biggest lead this year?

    I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a 5% outlier.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,078
    edited November 8
    Foxy said:

    Slightly ominous anecdata from my patch. Numbers of covid patients fractionally down on the week. 45% double vaxxed (not surprisingly perhaps) but 13% treble vaxxed. 9 of 11 in with covid 19 disease as primary diagnosis. Only one confirmed flu case, and 16 RSV.

    Nice to see Loughbough going red, it is a real bellwether seat...

    Judging by the MPs it has had recently, Leicester East seems to be trying to become a bell-something seat.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,068
    jonny83 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The other people in that photo are 'little', and very unlikely to be party donors.

    I just don't know why journalists have still not understood the new order.

    He should have known that if he wasn't wearing one even for a brief moment it was going to be photographed. They are watching him like a hawk especially after pictured not wearing a mask at that COP 26 event recently sat next to a 95 year old Attenborough.

    In a Health care setting like a Hospital you should be wearing a mask at all times. What an selfish idiot.
    Am surprised it has taken The Mirror all day to check the advice to visitors re hospital visits. If they had been on the ball they would have posted the story before that debate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Foxy said:

    Slightly ominous anecdata from my patch. Numbers of covid patients fractionally down on the week. 45% double vaxxed (not surprisingly perhaps) but 13% treble vaxxed. 9 of 11 in with covid 19 disease as primary diagnosis. Only one confirmed flu case, and 16 RSV.

    Nice to see Loughbough going red, it is a real bellwether seat...

    Ages? Co-morbidities?


    I saw an interesting nugget from Germany today. When it comes to Covid in the vaxed, the biggest problem is those who have had the one-shot J&J vaccine, where breakthrough infections are much more common than with AZ or Pfizer

    Suggesting the two shot approach confers significantly greater immunity
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    edited November 8
    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,768
    edited November 8

    What do people think will be Labour's biggest lead this year?

    I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a 5% outlier.

    I'm somehow imagining a Conservatives 33%, Labour 37% poll sometime before Christmas. That 33% area is often a familiar bedrock for the Tories.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,264
    On topic:

    "Shipley - Labour Gain"

    That’s made my evening!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Slightly ominous anecdata from my patch. Numbers of covid patients fractionally down on the week. 45% double vaxxed (not surprisingly perhaps) but 13% treble vaxxed. 9 of 11 in with covid 19 disease as primary diagnosis. Only one confirmed flu case, and 16 RSV.

    Nice to see Loughbough going red, it is a real bellwether seat...

    Judging by the MPs it has had recently, Leicester East seems to be trying to become a bell-something seat.
    For all his interesting peccadillos, Keith Vaz was an excellent constituency MP. He got plenty from the pork barrel, while Webbe has been invisible.
  • isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    The Conservative Party has two moods, complacency and panic, extrapolating from midterms polls is what saw Thatcher ousted for example.
  • On topic:

    "Shipley - Labour Gain"

    That’s made my evening!

    It's like 1997 all over again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    IshmaelZ said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.

    There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.

    In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.

    In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:

    Changes from the July 2021 election:

    GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
    Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
    We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
    There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
    Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
    Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
    Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)

    It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.

    The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.

    Love the party names.

    Imagine the UK versions.

    Labour Party for Equity Amongst The People

    Freedom Party for Liberal People Who Value Rights and Freedoms

    Stand Up for Badgers and Foxes and Other Smaller Animals

    Movement for Brave Scotland and Trainspotting
    There is Such a Nation vwould be a good subtitle for Plaid Cymru
    There is No Such Nation would be good for the Liberal Democrats...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    Yes, add in a bit of tactical voting to the eye of bat and tail of newt and give it all a stir!

    No doubt though that Johnson has lost his sheen. Can he regain it? Or is his act as dated as Jim Davidson?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Slightly ominous anecdata from my patch. Numbers of covid patients fractionally down on the week. 45% double vaxxed (not surprisingly perhaps) but 13% treble vaxxed. 9 of 11 in with covid 19 disease as primary diagnosis. Only one confirmed flu case, and 16 RSV.

    Nice to see Loughbough going red, it is a real bellwether seat...

    Judging by the MPs it has had recently, Leicester East seems to be trying to become a bell-something seat.
    For all his interesting peccadillos, Keith Vaz was an excellent constituency MP. He got plenty from the pork barrel, while Webbe has been invisible.
    I'm not sure being a 'excellent constituency MP' should be counted as making up for what can be serious concerns, which is how it comes across with such talk. It would give the impression its ok to do all manner of things so long as your constituents like you because you brought home the bacon. Local voters wouldn't care, but it's problematic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    The Conservative Party has two moods, complacency and panic, extrapolating from midterms polls is what saw Thatcher ousted for example.
    Good move though. She would have lost in 92 sticking by the poll tax.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Slightly ominous anecdata from my patch. Numbers of covid patients fractionally down on the week. 45% double vaxxed (not surprisingly perhaps) but 13% treble vaxxed. 9 of 11 in with covid 19 disease as primary diagnosis. Only one confirmed flu case, and 16 RSV.

    Nice to see Loughbough going red, it is a real bellwether seat...

    Judging by the MPs it has had recently, Leicester East seems to be trying to become a bell-something seat.
    For all his interesting peccadillos, Keith Vaz was an excellent constituency MP. He got plenty from the pork barrel, while Webbe has been invisible.
    I'm not sure being a 'excellent constituency MP' should be counted as making up for what can be serious concerns, which is how it comes across with such talk. It would give the impression its ok to do all manner of things so long as your constituents like you because you brought home the bacon. Local voters wouldn't care, but it's problematic.
    Oh, I agree! Nonetheless it was the unwinding of his personal vote as much as the excreble Corbynite Webbe being parachuted in that led to such a massive swing against Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    Yes, add in a bit of tactical voting to the eye of bat and tail of newt and give it all a stir!

    No doubt though that Johnson has lost his sheen. Can he regain it? Or is his act as dated as Jim Davidson?
    He has one obvious chance for a big comeback. If Britain pushes through winter with no more lockdowns, no restrictions and ever-declining Covid (as seems possible, at least) while many of our European friends are forced into more lockdowns and suffer worsening Covid, then Boris will be seen as a great liberator. I expect many voters will forgive or forget the sleaze, and return to the True Faith

    Lots could go wrong, however, of course
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,837
    isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    Party pooper
  • What do people think will be Labour's biggest lead this year?

    I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a 5% outlier.

    Had a chat with a pollster last week and I predicted at least one 10% Labour lead by next May's locals.

    (I'm basing that on a cost of living crisis feeding through.)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,837

    What do people think will be Labour's biggest lead this year?

    I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a 5% outlier.

    Had a chat with a pollster last week and I predicted at least one 10% Labour lead by next May's locals.

    (I'm basing that on a cost of living crisis feeding through.)
    What cost of living crisis? Brexit is going to give us all 5%+ payrises in April. Huzzah
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,357
    isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    I agree about the futility, but to what other purpose can an Electoral calculus be put? It's no use entering your weight and height and expecting it to calculate your BMI.

    All discussion about the results of elections that haven't happened and won't happen for a couple of years are futile. That's probably why so many people do it.

  • Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    The Conservative Party has two moods, complacency and panic, extrapolating from midterms polls is what saw Thatcher ousted for example.
    Good move though. She would have lost in 92 sticking by the poll tax.
    Nah, I reckon she would have called an election of June 1991, after the victory of glow of Iraq, slaughtered Kinnock during the campaign.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    edited November 8
    1983



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    2015

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Good Lord. The futility of feeding mid term polls into Electoral Calculus has been given an air of respectability. There’s no hope now

    Yes, add in a bit of tactical voting to the eye of bat and tail of newt and give it all a stir!

    No doubt though that Johnson has lost his sheen. Can he regain it? Or is his act as dated as Jim Davidson?
    He has one obvious chance for a big comeback. If Britain pushes through winter with no more lockdowns, no restrictions and ever-declining Covid (as seems possible, at least) while many of our European friends are forced into more lockdowns and suffer worsening Covid, then Boris will be seen as a great liberator. I expect many voters will forgive or forget the sleaze, and return to the True Faith

    Lots could go wrong, however, of course
    I think our European friends will certainly suffer worsening Covid over the winter.

    The question is whether it is like (say) California, where there are vaxports and mask mandates, but cases and deaths are largely uncorrelated, and life continues pretty much as normal otherwise.

    Or, whether it results in either spiking deaths and/or actual lockdowns. (As in, businesses shut and people banned from social activities.)

    My money is on the first of these, but we shall see.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    isam said:

    1983



    1987


    2005



    2015

    Aren't you slightly cherrypicking?

    How does 1997-2001 look or 2015-2017?

    Swingback is normal, but not universal.
This discussion has been closed.