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The MPs in danger if the election went as today’s Ipsos poll – politicalbetting.com
The MPs in danger if the election went as today’s Ipsos poll – politicalbetting.com
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The MPs in danger if the election went as today’s Ipsos poll – politicalbetting.com
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Meanwhile....
Sixteen days in a row of English cases contracting relative to 7 days before is the longest continuous run of contractions since February 2021 - when we were in full lockdown.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1457777518665101315?s=20
Might concentrate a few Tory minds tonight.
Fun fact, LDs only hold 2 of the 8 seats they held in 2015. Even though that was their nadir, they are nowhere in some of those seats now. Only Carmichael and Fallon remain, and the latter might well struggle in future (he did well to hold on at all) and even the former came close.
Also, pet peeve - wikipedia constituency lists need to be uniform in putting newest elections at the top or bottom!
Edit: Meant only they remain continuously - a few seats and ex members have returned of course.
To demonstrate this think of a extremely deadly and highly transmissible virus that only killed native French speakers.
France introduces a draconian lockdown and still suffers high level of deaths, massive excess mortality.
Sweden introduces no restrictions and barely anyone dies. Barely a ripple of excess mortality.
While we worry about might happen in an election that's two and a half years away, in Bulgaria, they are voting for the third time this year on Sunday.
There are both Presidential and Legislative elections aimed at breaking the deadlock through which the country has travelled for the past several months.
In the Presidential election, the incumbent Ruman Radev, who is supported by most of the main parties except GERB-SDS, is well ahead of the GERB-SDS supported candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov. The latest Exacta poll gives Radev a 48-27 lead so not quite enough to win on the first ballot though other polls have him just over 50%.
In the Legislative election, the latest poll as follows:
Changes from the July 2021 election:
GERB/SDS: 24.2% (+0.7)
Bulgarian Socialist Party: 15.7% (+2.3)
We Continue the Change: 13.7% (+13.7)
There is Such a Nation: 11.3% (-12.8)
Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 11.1% (+0.4)
Democratic Bulgaria: 9.8% (-2.8)
Revival: 3.3% (+0.3)
Stand Up Bulgaria!: 3.1% (-1.9)
Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)
It looks as though the first six groups will enter the National Assembly of 240 seats. As we know, there's a fair bit of antipathy toward both GERB leader and former Prime Minister Borisov, who doesn't get on at all with Radev and There is Such a Nation (ITN) leader Trifonov who frankly has acted a bit strange since the strong July result basically eschewing all offers of a coalition.
The question is whether the other four groups can somehow work together to provide a reasonably stable government. To be fair, both the Socialists and We Continue the Change (PP) have backed Radev.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/08/tory-mp-faces-bankruptcy-over-unpaid-taxes-and-may-have-to-step-down-adam-afriyie
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/08/eddie-jones-criticised-comments-emma-raducanu-tennis
Jones, who was speaking after England defeated Tonga in the Autumn Nations Series on Saturday, used Raducanu as a cautionary example when discussing the need for Marcus Smith, the talented young England rugby player, to remain focused: “The big thing for good young players is distractions … there’s a reason why the young girl who won the US Open hasn’t done so well afterwards,” said Jones
The comments prompted criticism on social media, the BBC sports presenter Gabby Logan called Jones’s comments “unbelievably unfair and not even remotely comparable … imagine an 18-year-old rugby player winning a World Cup having never played a club game.” Logan’s response was endorsed by the tennis coach Judy Murray.
Jones is bang on the money.
https://nypost.com/2021/11/08/biden-disapproval-near-60-percent-most-say-no-to-reelection-bid/
Nearly half voters say Biden is worse than expected, and over half think he is not focussed on the important issues.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-slammed-parading-25410257 https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1457790984964636677/photo/1
Imagine the UK versions.
Labour Party for Equity Amongst The People
Freedom Party for Liberal People Who Value Rights and Freedoms
Stand Up for Badgers and Foxes and Other Smaller Animals
Movement for Brave Scotland and Trainspotting
Until then, he should follow his own rules. Even if they're stupid rules.
I just don't know why journalists have still not understood the new order.
TL;DR - Head for the centre now Biden, as fast as you can and ditch AOC.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/08/opinion/biden-democrats-2022-2024.html
I've also just realised the Gallup poll is ancient history (fieldwork 24-31/10) an we have a new poll from Market Data as follows:
GERB-SDS 23%
We Continue the Change: 16.3%
Socialists: 12.1%
Movement of Rights and Freedoms: 11.2%
Democratic Bulgaria: 10.5%
There is Such a Nation: 9.7%
On that basis, the new PP party will lead the opposition to Borisov and could yet take over.
Eddie Jones is a pillock
In a Health care setting like a Hospital you should be wearing a mask at all times. What an selfish idiot.
Plus an excuse to post this, Nicholas Soames is a real miss in the Commons.
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/21/adam-afriyie-nicholas-soames_n_4134750.html
it is particularly bad if that other athlete is, you know, really HOT
Didn't like the shoe being on the other foot it seems.
I know he's a twat, but he is really pulling out all the stops today...
https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1457779958751776771/photo/1
Raducanu is merely 18 FFS. She is allowed to be a very young woman enjoying herself. Not an automaton practising 23/7, at least for a year or two
Meanwhile, if Jones wants to see Smith develop, he should put him in the England team to start against Oz. He is clearly good enough, he is outrageously good, so give him the proper responsibility
One is "Good old Boris, showing what he thinks of petty rules. Like Churchill in the Blitz, only with better hair."
The other is "What a selfish b&^%^$&+# Johnson is. One rule for us, no rule at all for him."
Neither of those is completely wrong, and the love and hate shown for BoJo here and elsewhere depend a lot on which of those interpretations speaks to people more. The news agenda certainly chimes more with one than the other, though.
Sport being what it is, it is always possible that such things will elude her. There are no times when the next Emma Raducanu isn't trying to beat the current one.
If she didn't ever win another major title her achievement thus far would be startling and staggering and truly historic - putting Massie's match in the shade - even more than if she does.
...leaving his cities vulnerable for the 81% of voters who want him out to stage a revolution.
But then, the man always was a fool as well as a crook.
But the question is- is C35L36 likely to be as bad as it gets for the government? We've seen the gap close by about 2 points a month since June. That has to end sometime, but when?
As Sir Alexander Kirkland "Alec" Cairncross KCMG FRSE FBA put it:
A trend is a trend is a trend.
But the question is, when will it bend?
Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?
After all, the more delayed the swing away from the government, the less time the government has to for swingback to happen.
I have to admit the discussions about her choice of outfits and what it meant have been a highlight during these pandemic times.
The just passed infrastructure bill by conteast, so beloved of the Congressional and Senate centerists, is unfunded and adds hundreds of billions to the national debt.
Nice to see Loughbough going red, it is a real bellwether seat...
I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a 5% outlier.
I saw an interesting nugget from Germany today. When it comes to Covid in the vaxed, the biggest problem is those who have had the one-shot J&J vaccine, where breakthrough infections are much more common than with AZ or Pfizer
Suggesting the two shot approach confers significantly greater immunity
"Shipley - Labour Gain"
That’s made my evening!
No doubt though that Johnson has lost his sheen. Can he regain it? Or is his act as dated as Jim Davidson?
Lots could go wrong, however, of course
(I'm basing that on a cost of living crisis feeding through.)
All discussion about the results of elections that haven't happened and won't happen for a couple of years are futile. That's probably why so many people do it.
1987
2005
2015
The question is whether it is like (say) California, where there are vaxports and mask mandates, but cases and deaths are largely uncorrelated, and life continues pretty much as normal otherwise.
Or, whether it results in either spiking deaths and/or actual lockdowns. (As in, businesses shut and people banned from social activities.)
My money is on the first of these, but we shall see.
How does 1997-2001 look or 2015-2017?
Swingback is normal, but not universal.