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The LDs could be worth a punt in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 7 in General
imageThe LDs could be worth a punt in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

This morning many households in North Shropshire received their first leaflet, see above, of the by-election from the LDs which is pretty fast work given the vacancy was created only a few days ago.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575
    Loving "across North Shropshire" and election meaning by election. Not misleading at all.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    kyf_100 said:

    Has there ever been a time OGH doesn't think the lib dems are worth a punt?

    Nice bar chart, by the way...

    Are you being sarcastic? Mike picks winners from Tories, LDs and Labour all the time and was suggesting Tice the other day
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961
    kyf_100 said:

    Has there ever been a time OGH doesn't think the lib dems are worth a punt?

    Nice bar chart, by the way...

    Yes. A all the by-elections this parliament apart from Chesham & Amersham which I tipped at 20/1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    Where is the Betfair market?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575
    kyf_100 said:

    Has there ever been a time OGH doesn't think the lib dems are worth a punt?

    Nice bar chart, by the way...

    Yes, the pointed top and horizontal line suggesting that that is the size of the gap. A masterclass in dodgy typography.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    Johnson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,072
    edited November 7
    If this one comes home OGH will fully deserve his nice Christmas.

    But we might as well all give up because there will be no seat where the result can be reliably predicted any more.

    I would say the Liberal Democrats in this seat would be wiser to worry about finishing ahead of the Greens than trying to topple the Tories. But I will admit there are large parts of it I don't know well, so I have little idea of where this message might be 'hitting home.'
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,072
    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    You spelt that wrong. It should be "Your".
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    You spelt that wrong. It should be "Your".
    *spelled
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    You might not ever hear it from the usual SNP Type suspects here-

    But apparently Celtic FC fans can be a bit naughty as well:


    Grant
    @Grantmckay01
    IRA songs belting out the Celtic end today, nothing to see here eh?
    @GrahamSpiers

    @HumzaYousaf

    @Call_It_Out_

    @mstewart_23
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    You spelt that wrong. It should be "Your".
    Makes nice bread, that flower.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    A Lib Dem chart!!!!

    So accurate historically.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,740
    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Boswell.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 7
    I cannot see the LDs winning it, Shropshire was 57% Leave and while some may vote LD locally they will not do so nationally.

    Note too the LDs only got 10% in North Shropshire in 2019, which was even below their national voteshare of 11.6%.

    The last time the LDs took second in the seat was in 2010, when they were polling far higher than they are now.

    All the LDs campaigning hard in the by election will do is mean they will likely split the anti Tory vote given Labour were a clear second in 2019, thus ensuring the Tory candidate wins even if the Conservative vote falls below 50%
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438

    Where is the Betfair market?

    Mike's all Smarkets these days. It's corrupt I tell you - as much as half a Gregg's pasty may have found it his way and yet it's totally undeclared.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,360
    edited November 7

    kyf_100 said:

    Has there ever been a time OGH doesn't think the lib dems are worth a punt?

    Nice bar chart, by the way...

    Yes. A all the by-elections this parliament apart from Chesham & Amersham which I tipped at 20/1
    That was a reasonable tip and I might consider it at 20/1, but not at 9/1.

    But in Chesham and Amersham the Conservatives led the Lib Dems by 16,223 votes and the Lib Dems were in second place in an area where 55% voted remain.

    In North Shropshire the Conservatives lead the Lib Dems by 29801 votes and are in third place to Labour, who also secured over 12k votes to the Lib Dems 5643 (in an area that voted overwhelmingly to leave).

    That is quite the mountain to climb.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,072

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    You spelt that wrong. It should be "Your".
    I deliberately left it ambiguous...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,072
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Boswell.
    Gertrude Perkins.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Boswell.
    Gertrude Perkins.
    Mornington Crescent!
  • To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,015
    edited November 7
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    We haven't has any vaccine production numbers for a bit.

    This is October. Chinese vaccines falling back in numbers. UK production at 9 million in Oct.




    https://globalcommissionforpostpandemicpolicy.org/covid-19-vaccine-production-to-october-31st-2021/

    Most important news is that it looks like India is about to permit exports of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, which will largely go to Africa. India produced more than 300 million vaccine doses in October, and those were almost entirely AZ, though I don't know what vaccine uptake is like in India, they may still want most of the doses for their domestic vaccine programme for a while.
    That could significantly help Covax.

    I do wonder if vaccines are about to suffer from BIS - Boris Inattention Syndrome, whilst we should be locking in the process to develop and build a vaccine capability worldwide, linked to the UK research base.

    The approach of exporting vaccine factories, and the knowhow to create them, is far more preferable and beneficial developmentally to the alternative of building a huge factory and ex[exporting the expensive products thereof.
    India does seem to have become a point of failure in all this - if they stop exports (and they did) that's a huge chunk off global capacity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    I’m not tempted by the bet, but this is a nice point.
    … a delay in the by-election date means that the challengers can circulate leaflets like this without the same constraints of the by-election spending limits.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Boswell.
    Dick
    Pecker
    Wang
    Willie
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    All the best to you, CHB.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,356
    I was sure about LD for C and A, fairly sure about Labour for Batley and Spen but not sure at all about LDs for N Shropshire.

    It is pretty much a seat where for the LDs to win it Lord Emsworth has to recommend that his staff and tenants vote for them. The timing is in Tory hands. Labour are unlikely to give it up but can't win it. I suggest a Tory hold for now until some data turns up! (ditto OB and S BTW). I would want longer odds than C and A - which was an LD banker.

    But thank you Mr Smithson for your excellent and fair minded coverage of the matter. It is not true that you only/always tip LDs. Hartlepool comes to mind among many others!
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451
    Another ‘winning here’ bar chart 😂😂😂😂
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,740
    edited November 7
    Thanks for the piece Mike.

    I see that the LDs are pretending that the local election result is the relevant one to this Parliamentary Byelection, even before they engage the BIF - the Barchart Intumescence Factor. :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    You spelt that wrong. It should be "Your".
    Ok, ok, that's quite a good one, Philip. Zap.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,740
    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    Point of Order.

    Davey also has something of the Knight about him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,015
    Nigelb said:

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    All the best to you, CHB.
    Likewise.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    Well played

    I can't afford to bet on this one so I'll just keep quiet for a bit.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    I hope you find it. Stay cool.

  • To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    I just want to say to you I hope you win your bet, but as a father to a 55 year old son who has PTSD and very serious mental health issues that you should seek help from your GP or the many voluntary mental health charities

    Please do not keep it all to yourself, be kind to yourself and help is there for you

    All the very best

    Indeed you may win your bet tomorrow as it looks like there will be two polls
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,356
    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    1) Yes but not fatally,
    2) Davey but he won't win. (Labour can't win)

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    Also very good. People so sharp on here sometimes!

    Can't do a good pun back though. And you know what they say, no pun is better than a bad pun.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,435
    It looks like a two-horse race!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 7
    Staff at one of the world’s largest investment companies now have to get special approval if they want to hire a white man, rather than a woman or an ethnic minority candidate
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1457337470337617924?s=20
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,740
    Hmmm.

    But why the red arrow on the chart?

    Are the LDs after a subliminal Pavlovian response from lefty voters?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    edited November 7
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    1) Yes but not fatally,
    2) Davey but he won't win. (Labour can't win)
    Think I agree. Btw I have moved my GE long range assessment in line with yours now. Con maj and hung parliament about equally probable.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    With the current backlog in NHS psychiatric services it may be worth observing that you can get a private psychiatrists appointment for gbp 250 ish. I have no idea whether you can lay hands on that sort of money, and I know it sounds a lot, but it can be life saving.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,837
    HYUFD said:

    Staff at one of the world’s largest investment companies now have to get special approval if they want to hire a white man, rather than a woman or an ethnic minority candidate
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1457337470337617924?s=20

    Craig Broadbent
    @CraigBroadbent1
    1h
    Replying to
    @PoliticsForAlI
    Take a guess at which people replying have only read the headline... doesn't once say that. It actually says ' The company will still hire white men but recruiters have to show they have interviewed women and ethnic minority candidates. '
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,072
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    Also very good. People so sharp on here sometimes!

    Can't do a good pun back though. And you know what they say, no pun is better than a bad pun.
    Really? If you can't say you punned it, why are you on a betting website?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    Best wishes CHB.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    This may be trite advice, but focusing on physical things that you can control can be an effective way to bring psychological things that seem beyond control into some kind of order. Eat healthily, get some exercise, regularise sleep patterns, etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    You spelt that wrong. It should be "Your".
    *spelled
    I speak English, not American, thank you very much.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    You're posting flops.
    You spelt that wrong. It should be "Your".
    *spelled
    I speak English, not American, thank you very much.
    I know, it was just a joke
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624
    HYUFD said:

    Staff at one of the world’s largest investment companies now have to get special approval if they want to hire a white man, rather than a woman or a ethnic minority candidate
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1457337470337617924?s=20

    Hmm. Their chief economist was my tutee in days of yore. I never thought he needed to be woken up.

  • pingping Posts: 1,409
    Lol

    West Ham 2-1
  • Liverpool behind again
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,837

    Liverpool behind again

    Always good to see
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,015

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    This may be trite advice, but focusing on physical things that you can control can be an effective way to bring psychological things that seem beyond control into some kind of order. Eat healthily, get some exercise, regularise sleep patterns, etc.
    +1 for this.

    Get outside and enjoy the outside world. I have found this, personally, very helpful in the past.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,072
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    1) Yes but not fatally,
    2) Davey but he won't win. (Labour can't win)

    In a sense, though, we may be asking the wrong question. There isn't a real chance of anyone other than the Tories winning. The Liberal Democrats have withered away, Labour are a very distant second, the Greens didn't even save their deposit.

    But there is also only one occasion in the last forty years where they haven't got 48%+ of the vote - 1997, where it was just 40%.

    So realistically anything that cuts the Tory voteshare to between 40-45% has to be seen as a successful campaign for the opposition parties.

    At which point, we will then want to know who did better - Labour, or the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens? Because that might give a few pointers to value.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,740
    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,740

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    Hey mate, hope you get the help you need, if you're in or around the square mile in the week happy to catch up over a drink/coffee if you just want someone to talk to.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    edited November 7

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    This may be trite advice, but focusing on physical things that you can control can be an effective way to bring psychological things that seem beyond control into some kind of order. Eat healthily, get some exercise, regularise sleep patterns, etc.
    +1 for this.

    Get outside and enjoy the outside world. I have found this, personally, very helpful in the past.
    Fuck that - I think the best advice to give CHB is to ask for benzos from his phychiastrist. Benzos cheer everyone up.
  • Liverpool losing 3 - 1
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,348
    Nearly evening all :)

    No one is underestimating the challenge the LDs face in North Shropshire - they start 53 points behind the Conservatives or the thick end of 30,000 votes.

    Does this mean they should give up or not try? Hardly very democratic.

    The key will be to establish the Party as the "challengers" and to take that message across the constituency. The second part is, I'd have thought, the obvious one. People aren't voting to elect or change a Government so if you want to register a protest or your disenchantment with the current administration, this is an opportunity to do so "without risk".

    The third point will be for the LDs to pick the right candidate That's the most important - I don't know who the "right" candidate for North Shropshire is or would be because I don't know the area.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,072
    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well, if that is the explanation that would be very good news indeed.

    Certainly it isn't easy to explain the near 50% drop in cases among teenagers just by half term.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    1) Yes but not fatally,
    2) Davey but he won't win. (Labour can't win)

    In a sense, though, we may be asking the wrong question. There isn't a real chance of anyone other than the Tories winning. The Liberal Democrats have withered away, Labour are a very distant second, the Greens didn't even save their deposit.

    But there is also only one occasion in the last forty years where they haven't got 48%+ of the vote - 1997, where it was just 40%.

    So realistically anything that cuts the Tory voteshare to between 40-45% has to be seen as a successful campaign for the opposition parties.

    At which point, we will then want to know who did better - Labour, or the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens? Because that might give a few pointers to value.
    The LDs are going nowhere. Davey is safe but poor.

    The Greens might do something though. It's very hard to work out their plan, mainly because I doubt they have one worthy of comment, but they have a singular opportunity. (And they are better than they've ever been, which of course means little)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,015
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well, if that is the explanation that would be very good news indeed.

    Certainly it isn't easy to explain the near 50% drop in cases among teenagers just by half term.
    From:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59179219

    "The precise balance of those effects on Covid in children remains uncertain - is it a school break or herd immunity?
    "That's the real question, I'm cautiously optimistic that it's that latter and it's a very significant moment if it is," said Prof John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine."
  • JBriskin3 said:

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    This may be trite advice, but focusing on physical things that you can control can be an effective way to bring psychological things that seem beyond control into some kind of order. Eat healthily, get some exercise, regularise sleep patterns, etc.
    +1 for this.

    Get outside and enjoy the outside world. I have found this, personally, very helpful in the past.
    Fuck that - I think the best advice to give CHB is to ask for benzos from his phychiastrist. Benzos cheer everyone up.
    I would suggest his psychiatrist if he has one would assess the appropriate nature of benzodiazepines or other more suitable treatments

    It is a subject I am well versed in through our family's mental health issues
  • 3 - 2
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575
    edited November 7
    ping said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    With the current backlog in NHS psychiatric services it may be worth observing that you can get a private psychiatrists appointment for gbp 250 ish. I have no idea whether you can lay hands on that sort of money, and I know it sounds a lot, but it can be life saving.
    Sorry, I don’t mean to be flippant here, but having dealt with similar issues myself, and not having particularly great resources, I tried to educate myself on mental health.

    My conclusion was that the field was full of bullshit and chancers. There are a few things that we know, help;

    Eating a genuinely healthy, balanced diet, getting as much sleep as your body needs, lots of exercise and finding the right antidepressant at the right dose - is decent advice.

    Oh, and stay away from anything that is addictive. That includes gambling.
    The right AD at the right dose is precisely what you need a psychiatrist for.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,740

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well, if that is the explanation that would be very good news indeed.

    Certainly it isn't easy to explain the near 50% drop in cases among teenagers just by half term.
    From:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59179219

    "The precise balance of those effects on Covid in children remains uncertain - is it a school break or herd immunity?
    "That's the real question, I'm cautiously optimistic that it's that latter and it's a very significant moment if it is," said Prof John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine."
    Yes, I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic that it's herd immunity as well. If that's the case then COVID is actually done as a major cause for concern in the UK. It's hard to overstate just how significant it is for the nation that we're possibly finally at the stage where the virus has run out of viable hosts.

    Once again, I have to credit the Saj, Boris and Rishi with this. The scientists would have locked us down a few weeks ago to bring cases back down and not implemented the full reopening in July. It's a shame that we didn't reopen fully in June because we'd be four more weeks up the road.
  • pingping Posts: 1,409
    Decent game, WH/Liverpool
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    Origi!

    This is a great game, even if we are 3-2 down. Come on, would love a comeback here.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    edited November 7
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well, if that is the explanation that would be very good news indeed.

    Certainly it isn't easy to explain the near 50% drop in cases among teenagers just by half term.
    https://twitter.com/sinichol/status/1457339410345775117


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well quite. With zero npi really, and life pretty as normal, and into the depth of autumn, to see cases fall points to herd immunity being reached. And when you get there, cases can suddenly start to fall away, as in the kids right now.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    I'm pretty averse to get involved with discussion on medical matters with a bunch of strangers, but please remember that some physical and mental illnesses are attributable to lifestyle, but some are not.

    The professionals know what they're talking about more than anyone on here. The average person might have been involved in a small handful of cases, but the professionals will usually have years' of experience.

    Don't take advice on here too seriously, especially when it argues against the opinions of professionals.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    ping said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    With the current backlog in NHS psychiatric services it may be worth observing that you can get a private psychiatrists appointment for gbp 250 ish. I have no idea whether you can lay hands on that sort of money, and I know it sounds a lot, but it can be life saving.
    Sorry, I don’t mean to be flippant here, but having dealt with similar issues myself, and not having particularly great resources, I tried to educate myself on mental health.

    My conclusion was that the field was full of bullshit and chancers. There are a few things that we know, help;

    Eating a genuinely healthy, balanced diet, getting as much sleep as your body needs, lots of exercise and finding the right antidepressant at the right dose - is decent advice.

    Oh, and stay away from anything that is addictive. That includes gambling.

    JBriskin3 said:

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    This may be trite advice, but focusing on physical things that you can control can be an effective way to bring psychological things that seem beyond control into some kind of order. Eat healthily, get some exercise, regularise sleep patterns, etc.
    +1 for this.

    Get outside and enjoy the outside world. I have found this, personally, very helpful in the past.
    Fuck that - I think the best advice to give CHB is to ask for benzos from his phychiastrist. Benzos cheer everyone up.
    I would suggest his psychiatrist if he has one would assess the appropriate nature of benzodiazepines or other more suitable treatments

    It is a subject I am well versed in through our family's mental health issues
    There are a lot of quacks in the NHS (or SNHS anyaway)

    At the moment I'm on a heavy dose of Olanzapine - it makes me sleepy so I can't be a nighthawk.

    And benzos are very addictive admittedly...
  • pingping Posts: 1,409
    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    With the current backlog in NHS psychiatric services it may be worth observing that you can get a private psychiatrists appointment for gbp 250 ish. I have no idea whether you can lay hands on that sort of money, and I know it sounds a lot, but it can be life saving.
    Sorry, I don’t mean to be flippant here, but having dealt with similar issues myself, and not having particularly great resources, I tried to educate myself on mental health.

    My conclusion was that the field was full of bullshit and chancers. There are a few things that we know, help;

    Eating a genuinely healthy, balanced diet, getting as much sleep as your body needs, lots of exercise and finding the right antidepressant at the right dose - is decent advice.

    Oh, and stay away from anything that is addictive. That includes gambling.
    The right AD at the right dose is precisely what you need a psychiatrist for.
    Fair enough.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 859
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    1) Yes but not fatally,
    2) Davey but he won't win. (Labour can't win)

    In a sense, though, we may be asking the wrong question. There isn't a real chance of anyone other than the Tories winning. The Liberal Democrats have withered away, Labour are a very distant second, the Greens didn't even save their deposit.

    But there is also only one occasion in the last forty years where they haven't got 48%+ of the vote - 1997, where it was just 40%.

    So realistically anything that cuts the Tory voteshare to between 40-45% has to be seen as a successful campaign for the opposition parties.

    At which point, we will then want to know who did better - Labour, or the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens? Because that might give a few pointers to value.
    The LDs are going nowhere. Davey is safe but poor.

    The Greens might do something though. It's very hard to work out their plan, mainly because I doubt they have one worthy of comment, but they have a singular opportunity. (And they are better than they've ever been, which of course means little)
    Um.... cough. Chesham and Amersham.

    Its a by election and the Lib Dems have pretty good form with these. The Greens have never won one, and Tories will not generally vote Labour. I think OGH might be on to something. If the Lib Dems are first out of the trap like this, then they are clearly going to make a fight out of it. Its a long shot, but a lot of Conservative voters will want to send a message...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    algarkirk said:

    I was sure about LD for C and A, fairly sure about Labour for Batley and Spen but not sure at all about LDs for N Shropshire.

    It is pretty much a seat where for the LDs to win it Lord Emsworth has to recommend that his staff and tenants vote for them. The timing is in Tory hands. Labour are unlikely to give it up but can't win it. I suggest a Tory hold for now until some data turns up! (ditto OB and S BTW). I would want longer odds than C and A - which was an LD banker.

    But thank you Mr Smithson for your excellent and fair minded coverage of the matter. It is not true that you only/always tip LDs. Hartlepool comes to mind among many others!

    In stable seats such as this, the results in the ‘80s can offer some sort of guide to LibDem prospects. They secured a string of solid second places there, but still 20% behind, and never managed to squeeze the Labour vote down below 20%, unlike in many other rural Tory seats. The resilience of the Labour vote even during their 80s low spots suggests this isn’t winnable for the LibDems; the realistic campaign objective may well be to resecure second place, which is quite possible given the negatives still swirling around Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    I know debate on here and national politics generally can get fraught - but it doesn't really compare to debates about fireworks on local FB groups :o !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,740

    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well quite. With zero npi really, and life pretty as normal, and into the depth of autumn, to see cases fall points to herd immunity being reached. And when you get there, cases can suddenly start to fall away, as in the kids right now.
    Indeed, and what gives me the cautious optimism is the real time Google mobility data I saw on Friday which shows more people are travelling into city centres on public transport and spending more time indoors than they were three weeks ago when cases were at the autumn peak. There hasn't been any behavioural change driving this and anecdotally there are fewer people wearing masks indoors than I've ever noticed.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    Cicero said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    1) Yes but not fatally,
    2) Davey but he won't win. (Labour can't win)

    In a sense, though, we may be asking the wrong question. There isn't a real chance of anyone other than the Tories winning. The Liberal Democrats have withered away, Labour are a very distant second, the Greens didn't even save their deposit.

    But there is also only one occasion in the last forty years where they haven't got 48%+ of the vote - 1997, where it was just 40%.

    So realistically anything that cuts the Tory voteshare to between 40-45% has to be seen as a successful campaign for the opposition parties.

    At which point, we will then want to know who did better - Labour, or the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens? Because that might give a few pointers to value.
    The LDs are going nowhere. Davey is safe but poor.

    The Greens might do something though. It's very hard to work out their plan, mainly because I doubt they have one worthy of comment, but they have a singular opportunity. (And they are better than they've ever been, which of course means little)
    Um.... cough. Chesham and Amersham.

    Its a by election and the Lib Dems have pretty good form with these. The Greens have never won one, and Tories will not generally vote Labour. I think OGH might be on to something. If the Lib Dems are first out of the trap like this, then they are clearly going to make a fight out of it. Its a long shot, but a lot of Conservative voters will want to send a message...
    Of course you're right to point at that. The LDs should be there, but they're clearly not.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    edited November 7
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well, if that is the explanation that would be very good news indeed.

    Certainly it isn't easy to explain the near 50% drop in cases among teenagers just by half term.
    From:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59179219

    "The precise balance of those effects on Covid in children remains uncertain - is it a school break or herd immunity?
    "That's the real question, I'm cautiously optimistic that it's that latter and it's a very significant moment if it is," said Prof John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine."
    Yes, I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic that it's herd immunity as well. If that's the case then COVID is actually done as a major cause for concern in the UK. It's hard to overstate just how significant it is for the nation that we're possibly finally at the stage where the virus has run out of viable hosts.

    Once again, I have to credit the Saj, Boris and Rishi with this. The scientists would have locked us down a few weeks ago to bring cases back down and not implemented the full reopening in July. It's a shame that we didn't reopen fully in June because we'd be four more weeks up the road.
    I'm not sure that's totally clear (re: "all" the scientists). There were some indications that Whitty in particular agreed with the basic strategy, albeit he may have been very nervous about whether his instinctive judgement was right that caused him to hedge a little. There was a lot on the line and clearly he was happy to let the politicians actually take the decisions in the circumstances.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    Pulpstar said:

    I know debate on here and national politics generally can get fraught - but it doesn't really compare to debates about fireworks on local FB groups :o !

    What is the preferred method of capital punishment?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    Cicero said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Johnson.

    Can't we all just move on from the last thread?
    We have. The topic is now the Shropshire by-election, where the questions are imo:

    Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?

    If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
    1) Yes but not fatally,
    2) Davey but he won't win. (Labour can't win)

    In a sense, though, we may be asking the wrong question. There isn't a real chance of anyone other than the Tories winning. The Liberal Democrats have withered away, Labour are a very distant second, the Greens didn't even save their deposit.

    But there is also only one occasion in the last forty years where they haven't got 48%+ of the vote - 1997, where it was just 40%.

    So realistically anything that cuts the Tory voteshare to between 40-45% has to be seen as a successful campaign for the opposition parties.

    At which point, we will then want to know who did better - Labour, or the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens? Because that might give a few pointers to value.
    The LDs are going nowhere. Davey is safe but poor.

    The Greens might do something though. It's very hard to work out their plan, mainly because I doubt they have one worthy of comment, but they have a singular opportunity. (And they are better than they've ever been, which of course means little)
    Um.... cough. Chesham and Amersham.

    Its a by election and the Lib Dems have pretty good form with these. The Greens have never won one, and Tories will not generally vote Labour. I think OGH might be on to something. If the Lib Dems are first out of the trap like this, then they are clearly going to make a fight out of it. Its a long shot, but a lot of Conservative voters will want to send a message...
    There is clearly a big difference between pro-remain and pro-leave seats. Clearly the former are far more likely to be fertile ground for obvious reasons.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451

    Pulpstar said:

    I know debate on here and national politics generally can get fraught - but it doesn't really compare to debates about fireworks on local FB groups :o !

    What is the preferred method of capital punishment?
    The head slap
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    Fair play, that was a great result for West Ham. Gutted personally, but that was a great game.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,526

    Origi!

    This is a great game, even if we are 3-2 down. Come on, would love a comeback here.

    As a West Ham fan I am of course delighted.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well quite. With zero npi really, and life pretty as normal, and into the depth of autumn, to see cases fall points to herd immunity being reached. And when you get there, cases can suddenly start to fall away, as in the kids right now.
    Indeed, and what gives me the cautious optimism is the real time Google mobility data I saw on Friday which shows more people are travelling into city centres on public transport and spending more time indoors than they were three weeks ago when cases were at the autumn peak. There hasn't been any behavioural change driving this and anecdotally there are fewer people wearing masks indoors than I've ever noticed.
    I still find it interesting though that London is such an outlier. It could of course be HIT being met earlier, but there is still a hell of a lot WfH going on, particularly in the Public Sector. At least two days a week i'm regularly the only person in an office of 70 odd. And anecdotally i've heard there are increasing concerns about levels of productivity (that held up pretty well in the first year of the pandemic) such that there is increasing urgency to get people back in greater numbers.
  • To make it entirely clear, I am not down because Labour isn't in Government, I am down because of other mental health issues and the bet I had placed I was just hoping might give me some temporary happiness. I am seeking help

    Sorry to hear you're not ok. But its good that you can say so - its ok not to be ok.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    What is everyone doing on here and not watching The Cruel Sea on iPlayer.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    Okay - I'm off to Listen (rather than Watch like you lucky bastards) the F1

    Before I go-

    Does anyone know Mr Dancer's tip/s for the race?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575

    Pulpstar said:

    I know debate on here and national politics generally can get fraught - but it doesn't really compare to debates about fireworks on local FB groups :o !

    What is the preferred method of capital punishment?
    Catherine wheel, obviously

    My advice to those whose "rescue" dog is cowering in the bath is, have it put down and get a more resilient one. No shortage now the lockdown purchases are hitting the rehoming market.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,526
    Pulpstar said:

    I know debate on here and national politics generally can get fraught - but it doesn't really compare to debates about fireworks on local FB groups :o !

    Actually ours hasn't been to bad. There have been a couple of people calling they should be banned but mostly it seems to be justifiable complaints about them being set off way before and after bonfire night. We had our bonfire party last night and timed it to coincide with the local organised event so all the disturbance was over at the same time. Lots of people in the village did the same so it was a nice and short display.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    TOPPING said:

    What is everyone doing on here and not watching The Cruel Sea on iPlayer.

    Waiting for the Grand Prix to start.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162
    On the by-election one question is what Labour are doing?

    Even if they don't think they have much of a chance of winning the seat, it's an opportunity to get out there and talk to voters, test out campaign messages, and see whether Leave/north of London voters can be won over.

    If they decide they can't be asked because the local organisation is weak, and they've never won the seat before, then it would make it easier for the Lib Dems to build up a head of steam.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 779
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know debate on here and national politics generally can get fraught - but it doesn't really compare to debates about fireworks on local FB groups :o !

    What is the preferred method of capital punishment?
    Catherine wheel, obviously

    My advice to those whose "rescue" dog is cowering in the bath is, have it put down and get a more resilient one. No shortage now the lockdown purchases are hitting the rehoming market.
    Lol - that did make me chuckle.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,740
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very good COVID stats again today. England cases down significantly compared to last week, R value of around 0.7 and falling.

    As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.

    Well quite. With zero npi really, and life pretty as normal, and into the depth of autumn, to see cases fall points to herd immunity being reached. And when you get there, cases can suddenly start to fall away, as in the kids right now.
    Indeed, and what gives me the cautious optimism is the real time Google mobility data I saw on Friday which shows more people are travelling into city centres on public transport and spending more time indoors than they were three weeks ago when cases were at the autumn peak. There hasn't been any behavioural change driving this and anecdotally there are fewer people wearing masks indoors than I've ever noticed.
    I still find it interesting though that London is such an outlier. It could of course be HIT being met earlier, but there is still a hell of a lot WfH going on, particularly in the Public Sector. At least two days a week i'm regularly the only person in an office of 70 odd. And anecdotally i've heard there are increasing concerns about levels of productivity (that held up pretty well in the first year of the pandemic) such that there is increasing urgency to get people back in greater numbers.
    It's almost certainly herd immunity in London, the first wave in London was absolutely devastating, just mostly unrecorded. The vaccination level is also a lot higher than the dashboard implies, maybe even higher than using the ONS as a denominator.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    What is everyone doing on here and not watching The Cruel Sea on iPlayer.

    Waiting for the Grand Prix to start.
    Traitor.
  • With regards to North Shropshire and remain vs leave there is a basic question.

    Is a 5 year old vote most important? Or a corrupt party taking money from the pockets of North Shropshire voters and handing it to their mates?

    Remember folks - if the Tories win these by-elections, the corruption continues.
This discussion has been closed.