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The LDs could be worth a punt in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
The LDs could be worth a punt in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
This morning many households in North Shropshire received their first leaflet, see above, of the by-election from the LDs which is pretty fast work given the vacancy was created only a few days ago.
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Nice bar chart, by the way...
But we might as well all give up because there will be no seat where the result can be reliably predicted any more.
I would say the Liberal Democrats in this seat would be wiser to worry about finishing ahead of the Greens than trying to topple the Tories. But I will admit there are large parts of it I don't know well, so I have little idea of where this message might be 'hitting home.'
But apparently Celtic FC fans can be a bit naughty as well:
Grant
@Grantmckay01
IRA songs belting out the Celtic end today, nothing to see here eh?
@GrahamSpiers
@HumzaYousaf
@Call_It_Out_
@mstewart_23
So accurate historically.
Note too the LDs only got 10% in North Shropshire in 2019, which was even below their national voteshare of 11.6%.
The last time the LDs took second in the seat was in 2010, when they were polling far higher than they are now.
All the LDs campaigning hard in the by election will do is mean they will likely split the anti Tory vote given Labour were a clear second in 2019, thus ensuring the Tory candidate wins even if the Conservative vote falls below 50%
But in Chesham and Amersham the Conservatives led the Lib Dems by 16,223 votes and the Lib Dems were in second place in an area where 55% voted remain.
In North Shropshire the Conservatives lead the Lib Dems by 29801 votes and are in third place to Labour, who also secured over 12k votes to the Lib Dems 5643 (in an area that voted overwhelmingly to leave).
That is quite the mountain to climb.
… a delay in the by-election date means that the challengers can circulate leaflets like this without the same constraints of the by-election spending limits.
Pecker
Wang
Willie
Will Boris's ham-fisted attempt to abolish the independent scrutiny of parliamentary standards damage their defence of the seat?
If so, who will most benefit, Davey or Sir Keir?
It is pretty much a seat where for the LDs to win it Lord Emsworth has to recommend that his staff and tenants vote for them. The timing is in Tory hands. Labour are unlikely to give it up but can't win it. I suggest a Tory hold for now until some data turns up! (ditto OB and S BTW). I would want longer odds than C and A - which was an LD banker.
But thank you Mr Smithson for your excellent and fair minded coverage of the matter. It is not true that you only/always tip LDs. Hartlepool comes to mind among many others!
I see that the LDs are pretending that the local election result is the relevant one to this Parliamentary Byelection, even before they engage the BIF - the Barchart Intumescence Factor.
Davey also has something of the Knight about him.
I can't afford to bet on this one so I'll just keep quiet for a bit.
Please do not keep it all to yourself, be kind to yourself and help is there for you
All the very best
Indeed you may win your bet tomorrow as it looks like there will be two polls
2) Davey but he won't win. (Labour can't win)
Can't do a good pun back though. And you know what they say, no pun is better than a bad pun.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1457337470337617924?s=20
But why the red arrow on the chart?
Are the LDs after a subliminal Pavlovian response from lefty voters?
@CraigBroadbent1
1h
Replying to
@PoliticsForAlI
Take a guess at which people replying have only read the headline... doesn't once say that. It actually says ' The company will still hire white men but recruiters have to show they have interviewed women and ethnic minority candidates. '
West Ham 2-1
Get outside and enjoy the outside world. I have found this, personally, very helpful in the past.
But there is also only one occasion in the last forty years where they haven't got 48%+ of the vote - 1997, where it was just 40%.
So realistically anything that cuts the Tory voteshare to between 40-45% has to be seen as a successful campaign for the opposition parties.
At which point, we will then want to know who did better - Labour, or the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens? Because that might give a few pointers to value.
As with yesterday, I'm at a loss to explain why cases are dropping so fast other than the nation crossing the herd immunity threshold for all age groups.
No one is underestimating the challenge the LDs face in North Shropshire - they start 53 points behind the Conservatives or the thick end of 30,000 votes.
Does this mean they should give up or not try? Hardly very democratic.
The key will be to establish the Party as the "challengers" and to take that message across the constituency. The second part is, I'd have thought, the obvious one. People aren't voting to elect or change a Government so if you want to register a protest or your disenchantment with the current administration, this is an opportunity to do so "without risk".
The third point will be for the LDs to pick the right candidate That's the most important - I don't know who the "right" candidate for North Shropshire is or would be because I don't know the area.
Certainly it isn't easy to explain the near 50% drop in cases among teenagers just by half term.
The Greens might do something though. It's very hard to work out their plan, mainly because I doubt they have one worthy of comment, but they have a singular opportunity. (And they are better than they've ever been, which of course means little)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59179219
"The precise balance of those effects on Covid in children remains uncertain - is it a school break or herd immunity?
"That's the real question, I'm cautiously optimistic that it's that latter and it's a very significant moment if it is," said Prof John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine."
It is a subject I am well versed in through our family's mental health issues
My conclusion was that the field was full of bullshit and chancers. There are a few things that we know, help;
Eating a genuinely healthy, balanced diet, getting as much sleep as your body needs, lots of exercise and finding the right antidepressant at the right dose - is decent advice.
Oh, and stay away from anything that is addictive. That includes gambling.
Once again, I have to credit the Saj, Boris and Rishi with this. The scientists would have locked us down a few weeks ago to bring cases back down and not implemented the full reopening in July. It's a shame that we didn't reopen fully in June because we'd be four more weeks up the road.
This is a great game, even if we are 3-2 down. Come on, would love a comeback here.
At the moment I'm on a heavy dose of Olanzapine - it makes me sleepy so I can't be a nighthawk.
And benzos are very addictive admittedly...
Its a by election and the Lib Dems have pretty good form with these. The Greens have never won one, and Tories will not generally vote Labour. I think OGH might be on to something. If the Lib Dems are first out of the trap like this, then they are clearly going to make a fight out of it. Its a long shot, but a lot of Conservative voters will want to send a message...
Before I go-
Does anyone know Mr Dancer's tip/s for the race?
My advice to those whose "rescue" dog is cowering in the bath is, have it put down and get a more resilient one. No shortage now the lockdown purchases are hitting the rehoming market.
Even if they don't think they have much of a chance of winning the seat, it's an opportunity to get out there and talk to voters, test out campaign messages, and see whether Leave/north of London voters can be won over.
If they decide they can't be asked because the local organisation is weak, and they've never won the seat before, then it would make it easier for the Lib Dems to build up a head of steam.
Is a 5 year old vote most important? Or a corrupt party taking money from the pockets of North Shropshire voters and handing it to their mates?
Remember folks - if the Tories win these by-elections, the corruption continues.
Today, 70 cases from 250k tests of a 10m population. It’s as good as over.