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It is hard to see Old Bexley & Sidcup being other than a comfortable CON hold – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    I have one of those. It's a tricky operation but if you have a claw hammer, try repeatedly hitting the "L" button until it unsticks. Force is your friend here.

    It worked for me. Let us know how you get on.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    Stop pleasuring yourself over the keyboard?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    slade said:

    As well as West Lancashire ( see previous thread) there are Con defences in Gloucester and West Sussex. There are also LD defence in Huntingdonshire, Lab defence in Salford, and Ind defence in Rutland. Could be one or two gains and losses.

    Labour are putting a lot of effort into the West Sussex (Worthing) one. It's arisen because a Tory Councillor had to resign after posting supportive stuff about Patriotic Alternative, a neo-fascist bunch. So this one could be interesting, especially as Worthing has been drifting a bit away from the Tories (Brighton overspill?). Mind you, I know nothing about the specific ward involved.

    Edit - apologies, I think the one I'm talking about may be next week rather than this week.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372

    Spot on from Rachel Reeves.

    Today the Bank of England growth forecast shows average real wages will fall by £883 over the next 2 years.

    This sends a clear message to government to get a grip on the cost of living crisis and on inflation.

    Their complacency is trapping us in a low growth, high tax economy.


    https://twitter.com/rachelreevesmp/status/1456244766623117317?s=21

    She’s right, of course, but what would Labour do differently aside from some nonsense about a “Green New Deal” creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 500
    edited November 2021
    Aslan said:

    British people should consider themselves very lucky with what they have.

    You don't get likes on social media by considering yourself lucky with what you have: you get them by writing emotive spiels about fascism coming to the UK. And unlike betting, when it turns out fascism wasn't coming to the UK after all you don't lose your likes because you were wrong. Instead, you just wait for the next opportunity to say fascism is coming to the UK and collect more likes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2021
    Evening Standard: Humbled Boris Johnson in massive sleaze U-turn

    BBC: "There is a huge amount of anger toward number ten [from Tory MPs] for what can only be regarded as a totally shambolic episode..."

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    IanB2 said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    People have gone a bit crazy. I think there's a big element of Boris/Brexit derangement syndrome too. The people agitating for it don't really care about the virus, they just want to oppose the government. There's so many other valid areas to do that on, picking COVID just seems a bit mad, especially as cases are falling.

    On Tuesday when we had the delayed deaths number rolled in my colleague pointed out that the lockdown fascists would use it without context to agitate for restrictions, so it came to pass.
    One thing that hasn't sunk in is that as good as the current covid vaccines are, relative to other vaccines, they aren't really much good at preventing transmission. Covid is simply too easily spread for the current vaccines to hold it in check. The vaccines are useful for suppressing serious illness but we will likely incur a lot of cases no matter what.

    Further restrictions like NPIs would have to be open-ended, because until we get better vaccines or good treatments we will face a flare up of covid each time we relax restrictions. So anyone arguing for mandatory masks, social distancing, or closing certain bits of the economy is effectively asking for those things to be done for a very long time, not a few weeks or months.
    Actually, they look pretty good at suppressing transmission. Within the fully vaccinated group, transmission lines die out quite quickly - just not instantly.

    It's the unvaxxed that provide the engine room for ongoing transmission.

    image
    Leakage from teens to parents is main driver of cases rise in the older, more vaxxed population. Remove that engine room, and cases should drop considerably. The muffling effect of immunity on every virus generation as it tries to move through an unfriendly vaccinated population causes those chains to exponentially decay.
    That graph has me wondering what the average age of the parent of a 12-13 year old would be?
    Well, 28 to 33 years old than the kid, so 40 to 46.

    https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/294594/mother-average-age-at-childbirth-england-and-wales-by-child-number.jpg

    or, er, right at the second peak of that graph...
    Tried a similar plot on the England case data

    image

    Will be interesting to see how this changes.....
    I tried a bar chart plot

    image

    hmmm

    The timings in the drops are interesting - looks like simultaneous with the children and the parents (but much less effect among the parents). And yet to spread to the other age groups....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    Avoid typing Welsh place names.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    IanB2 said:

    Evening Standard: Humbled Boris Johnson in massive sleaze U-turn

    Quite how they didn't see this coming is beyond me. Maybe they need to pay someone to monitor PB to get a sense of how the wind is blowing? maybe @Tissue_Price? He knows the place...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Taz said:

    Spot on from Rachel Reeves.

    Today the Bank of England growth forecast shows average real wages will fall by £883 over the next 2 years.

    This sends a clear message to government to get a grip on the cost of living crisis and on inflation.

    Their complacency is trapping us in a low growth, high tax economy.


    https://twitter.com/rachelreevesmp/status/1456244766623117317?s=21

    She’s right, of course, but what would Labour do differently aside from some nonsense about a “Green New Deal” creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
    Dunno.

    Let’s see what they come out with closer to the election.

    I wish Keir would self-combust, and what I’ve seen from of Labour economics policy so far is unimpressive, but I’m with the Anyone But Boris gang.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    This. Assuming lifting the key off (if possible) and cleaning doesn't solve the problem then it's a new keyboard. Simple on some (i.e. most Thinkpads - online hardware maintenance manuals from Lenono will walk you through it, few screws and you should be able to lift it out, plug in a new one, replace screws et voila, complete with 'l') much harder on others. But anything decent and fairly recent it would also be worth getting a repair shop to do it if DIY doesn't look feasible - much more sense than ditching the laptop unless it's ancient.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Can anybody work out why BoZo wanted the sleaze commissioner kneecapped now?

    Boris Johnson enjoyed free holiday thanks to defeated MP Zac Goldsmith who was made a peer
    http://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-enjoyed-free-holiday-thanks-to-defeated-mp-zac-goldsmith-who-was-made-a-peer-12459751
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    This. Assuming lifting the key off (if possible) and cleaning doesn't solve the problem then it's a new keyboard. Simple on some (i.e. most Thinkpads - online hardware maintenance manuals from Lenono will walk you through it, few screws and you should be able to lift it out, plug in a new one, replace screws et voila, complete with 'l') much harder on others. But anything decent and fairly recent it would also be worth getting a repair shop to do it if DIY doesn't look feasible - much more sense than ditching the laptop unless it's ancient.
    And, in future, once the porn video starts, put a cloth over the keyboard.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    IanB2 said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    People have gone a bit crazy. I think there's a big element of Boris/Brexit derangement syndrome too. The people agitating for it don't really care about the virus, they just want to oppose the government. There's so many other valid areas to do that on, picking COVID just seems a bit mad, especially as cases are falling.

    On Tuesday when we had the delayed deaths number rolled in my colleague pointed out that the lockdown fascists would use it without context to agitate for restrictions, so it came to pass.
    One thing that hasn't sunk in is that as good as the current covid vaccines are, relative to other vaccines, they aren't really much good at preventing transmission. Covid is simply too easily spread for the current vaccines to hold it in check. The vaccines are useful for suppressing serious illness but we will likely incur a lot of cases no matter what.

    Further restrictions like NPIs would have to be open-ended, because until we get better vaccines or good treatments we will face a flare up of covid each time we relax restrictions. So anyone arguing for mandatory masks, social distancing, or closing certain bits of the economy is effectively asking for those things to be done for a very long time, not a few weeks or months.
    Actually, they look pretty good at suppressing transmission. Within the fully vaccinated group, transmission lines die out quite quickly - just not instantly.

    It's the unvaxxed that provide the engine room for ongoing transmission.

    image
    Leakage from teens to parents is main driver of cases rise in the older, more vaxxed population. Remove that engine room, and cases should drop considerably. The muffling effect of immunity on every virus generation as it tries to move through an unfriendly vaccinated population causes those chains to exponentially decay.
    That graph has me wondering what the average age of the parent of a 12-13 year old would be?
    Well, 28 to 33 years old than the kid, so 40 to 46.

    https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/294594/mother-average-age-at-childbirth-england-and-wales-by-child-number.jpg

    or, er, right at the second peak of that graph...
    Tried a similar plot on the England case data

    image

    Will be interesting to see how this changes.....
    I tried a bar chart plot

    image

    hmmm

    The timings in the drops are interesting - looks like simultaneous with the children and the parents (but much less effect among the parents). And yet to spread to the other age groups....
    The implication is that the spread is easier from the kids to the parents (because 16 hours a day at home together) than to spread to other categories (passing contact in a shop, meeting granny for an hour etc). So if, and its still an if, the kids cases crash, its likely the parents cases will too.

    Anecdote alert. My colleague's child tested positive on sunday. Her mum had two lateral flow (faint) positives yesterday and is now waiting on a PCR. She is now back to negative on lateral flow. I suspect she will test PCR positive (its the more sensitive test) but is probably not infectious now. She will end up isolating for another 9 days. My colleague is still lateral flow negative.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    This. Assuming lifting the key off (if possible) and cleaning doesn't solve the problem then it's a new keyboard. Simple on some (i.e. most Thinkpads - online hardware maintenance manuals from Lenono will walk you through it, few screws and you should be able to lift it out, plug in a new one, replace screws et voila, complete with 'l') much harder on others. But anything decent and fairly recent it would also be worth getting a repair shop to do it if DIY doesn't look feasible - much more sense than ditching the laptop unless it's ancient.
    I do actually have an MS Surface Pro and I seem to recall someone describing it as being the keyboard is part of the whole thing so there is no such thing as a "new keyboard".

    But not my area of understanding.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    LOL

    No10 didn’t tell Owen Paterson it was performing U-turn

    He was in supermarket when he found out he was no longer off the hook in call from BBC journalist, @bbclaurak tells #wato


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1456248699978457095?s=21

    No doubt his shopping trolley was packed with products from Randox and Lynn Country Foods in a desperate attempt to boost their takings and save his consultancies.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    I have approved an application for an emergency debate on the subject: ‘That this House has considered the matter of the consequences of the decision of the House of 3 November relating to Standards.’

    This will take place on Monday 8 November.
    https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1456243072715612168
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,817
    IanB2 said:

    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    This. Assuming lifting the key off (if possible) and cleaning doesn't solve the problem then it's a new keyboard. Simple on some (i.e. most Thinkpads - online hardware maintenance manuals from Lenono will walk you through it, few screws and you should be able to lift it out, plug in a new one, replace screws et voila, complete with 'l') much harder on others. But anything decent and fairly recent it would also be worth getting a repair shop to do it if DIY doesn't look feasible - much more sense than ditching the laptop unless it's ancient.
    And, in future, once the porn video starts, put a cloth over the keyboard.
    THere are folk on Youtube who have laptop porn - videos on how to undress a laptop, ie take it to bits. I find them very useful in assessing what new model to buy. The last one I got turned out to have the battery glued in - like almost all the other bits. 42 steps, some toe-curlingly risky, to change the battery. Just bought a new one - this one needs some screws undone and one connector unplugged.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
  • Mr. Carnyx, sounds like when I tried to clean the inside of my PS4.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited November 2021

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
  • kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.

    My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
    That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
    The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"

    Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
    She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
    Ah, like privately educated political outsider Laura Kussenberg who's family includes: chair/president of Royal College of General Practitioners; a high court judge (among other roles), Govenor General of Nigeria; high commisioner of Mozambique.

    So outsider.
    But But But... they got their jobs through Merit*. Merit is the New Nobility.

    So they have a... Divine Right to Rule.

    What is interesting is that people outside the new Upper 10,000 are so ungrateful. They even presume to suggest that some of them are not there on merit.....

    *Getting degrees at Oxbridge etc.
    I don't worship at the altar of Meritocracy either - it's just another 'ocracy' - but it's not at all clear to me what you are driving at with this Upper 10,000 business. What do you want? The top jobs going to a birth nobility instead? Decided by a random number generator? Going to the worst educated in a kind of Cultural Revolution? Or maybe what you want is for there not to be any top jobs? In which case, the latter, you're a kindred spirit. But I suspect you aren't. All I really pick up is a kind of enigmatic whinge at a type of person. A type who irritates you. So what gives?
    The point I am making is an old one - the Revolution came and went and all we get is the New Managerial class.

    Further, that the new incumbents are even more endowed with belief in their absolute right to rule than the Old Regime.

    I think on the group of lawyers I discussed the problem of shoplifting with a while ago. To their minds, shoplifting shouldn't be prosecuted, since the criminals are such wretched victims themselves. When I pointed out that the shop keepers might not agree, the curling of lips was magnificent... It comes back to another theme, I think...

    The modern world has sold Democracy to the masses. It has been made a Cornerstone* of the legitimacy of government. Yet, to those that rule, more and more of the structure of our society is supposed to be beyond the reach of the ballot - to be held safely among the lawyers and... experts.

    Yet none dare say, outright, that Democracy has its limits. So we have a structure where democracy is preached by the state, but the state declares that we are bound to object it's dictat on various things *and* we are not allowed to have a say

    I recall an interesting conversation I had with a young relative who was studying history. She was appalled when I said that some of those involve in Irish Nationalism had *rejected* democracy as the last argument. She thought I was saying that they were evil. I was trying to explain that they simply had a different belief in the sanctity of the ballot and it's power.

    *Ha ha - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornerstone_Speech
    But do these shopkeeper-hating lawyers have any power? Last time I looked, shoplifting was still a crime and people still go to jail for it.
    We live in a liberal democracy, and there is an often unacknowledged tension between those two words. The liberal aspects are supposed to protect individuals and minority groups from the tyranny of the majority. To the extent that that creates some constraint on democracy, I am not sure that is something we should bemoan. I guess the question is where exactly we put those constraints on democracy.
    I'm comfortable with much of the day to day business of running the country being delegated to experts, aka people who know what they're doing. I don't see that as a conspiracy. It's the job of politicians to ensure that they do know what they are doing and aren't simply acting in their own interests, of course.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    If it's like my lousy Mac, a guitar pick works wonders if you slide it gently
    around each side of the key.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    IanB2 said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    People have gone a bit crazy. I think there's a big element of Boris/Brexit derangement syndrome too. The people agitating for it don't really care about the virus, they just want to oppose the government. There's so many other valid areas to do that on, picking COVID just seems a bit mad, especially as cases are falling.

    On Tuesday when we had the delayed deaths number rolled in my colleague pointed out that the lockdown fascists would use it without context to agitate for restrictions, so it came to pass.
    One thing that hasn't sunk in is that as good as the current covid vaccines are, relative to other vaccines, they aren't really much good at preventing transmission. Covid is simply too easily spread for the current vaccines to hold it in check. The vaccines are useful for suppressing serious illness but we will likely incur a lot of cases no matter what.

    Further restrictions like NPIs would have to be open-ended, because until we get better vaccines or good treatments we will face a flare up of covid each time we relax restrictions. So anyone arguing for mandatory masks, social distancing, or closing certain bits of the economy is effectively asking for those things to be done for a very long time, not a few weeks or months.
    Actually, they look pretty good at suppressing transmission. Within the fully vaccinated group, transmission lines die out quite quickly - just not instantly.

    It's the unvaxxed that provide the engine room for ongoing transmission.

    image
    Leakage from teens to parents is main driver of cases rise in the older, more vaxxed population. Remove that engine room, and cases should drop considerably. The muffling effect of immunity on every virus generation as it tries to move through an unfriendly vaccinated population causes those chains to exponentially decay.
    That graph has me wondering what the average age of the parent of a 12-13 year old would be?
    Well, 28 to 33 years old than the kid, so 40 to 46.

    https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/294594/mother-average-age-at-childbirth-england-and-wales-by-child-number.jpg

    or, er, right at the second peak of that graph...
    Tried a similar plot on the England case data

    image

    Will be interesting to see how this changes.....
    I tried a bar chart plot

    image

    hmmm

    The timings in the drops are interesting - looks like simultaneous with the children and the parents (but much less effect among the parents). And yet to spread to the other age groups....
    The implication is that the spread is easier from the kids to the parents (because 16 hours a day at home together) than to spread to other categories (passing contact in a shop, meeting granny for an hour etc). So if, and its still an if, the kids cases crash, its likely the parents cases will too.

    Anecdote alert. My colleague's child tested positive on sunday. Her mum had two lateral flow (faint) positives yesterday and is now waiting on a PCR. She is now back to negative on lateral flow. I suspect she will test PCR positive (its the more sensitive test) but is probably not infectious now. She will end up isolating for another 9 days. My colleague is still lateral flow negative.
    Yes, it's a nice sounding theory, and one I find tempting. But how to prove it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125

    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.

    My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
    That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
    The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"

    Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
    She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
    Ah, like privately educated political outsider Laura Kussenberg who's family includes: chair/president of Royal College of General Practitioners; a high court judge (among other roles), Govenor General of Nigeria; high commisioner of Mozambique.

    So outsider.
    But But But... they got their jobs through Merit*. Merit is the New Nobility.

    So they have a... Divine Right to Rule.

    What is interesting is that people outside the new Upper 10,000 are so ungrateful. They even presume to suggest that some of them are not there on merit.....

    *Getting degrees at Oxbridge etc.
    I don't worship at the altar of Meritocracy either - it's just another 'ocracy' - but it's not at all clear to me what you are driving at with this Upper 10,000 business. What do you want? The top jobs going to a birth nobility instead? Decided by a random number generator? Going to the worst educated in a kind of Cultural Revolution? Or maybe what you want is for there not to be any top jobs? In which case, the latter, you're a kindred spirit. But I suspect you aren't. All I really pick up is a kind of enigmatic whinge at a type of person. A type who irritates you. So what gives?
    The point I am making is an old one - the Revolution came and went and all we get is the New Managerial class.

    Further, that the new incumbents are even more endowed with belief in their absolute right to rule than the Old Regime.

    I think on the group of lawyers I discussed the problem of shoplifting with a while ago. To their minds, shoplifting shouldn't be prosecuted, since the criminals are such wretched victims themselves. When I pointed out that the shop keepers might not agree, the curling of lips was magnificent... It comes back to another theme, I think...

    The modern world has sold Democracy to the masses. It has been made a Cornerstone* of the legitimacy of government. Yet, to those that rule, more and more of the structure of our society is supposed to be beyond the reach of the ballot - to be held safely among the lawyers and... experts.

    Yet none dare say, outright, that Democracy has its limits. So we have a structure where democracy is preached by the state, but the state declares that we are bound to object it's dictat on various things *and* we are not allowed to have a say

    I recall an interesting conversation I had with a young relative who was studying history. She was appalled when I said that some of those involve in Irish Nationalism had *rejected* democracy as the last argument. She thought I was saying that they were evil. I was trying to explain that they simply had a different belief in the sanctity of the ballot and it's power.

    *Ha ha - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornerstone_Speech
    Right. The George Orwell / Pete Townsend principle. It's valid but I've never quite latched onto it as some sort of fundamental enlightening truth. Fact is, if the New Boss is a bit better than the Old Boss, that's progress.

    As for Democracy, for me it's a means to a Good not a Good in and of itself. And the Good is - to deliver as much power and autonomy to people over their own lives, independent of birth circumstances, as is compatible with the need to create order and wealth. If there's a system other than Democracy that would do this, I'll vote for it. Or rather I wouldn't since I wouldn't have to.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    Get a cheap external keyboard?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited November 2021
    kinabalu said:

    JohnO said:

    kjh said:

    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.

    It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
    Pathetic response
    Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
    You would regain respect if you could just say:-

    'I was wrong yesterday'
    I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.

    I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
    You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible

    You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
    The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.

    What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
    Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.

    I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.

    My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
    Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
    I think that is a very interesting question. I'm going to guess a huge number of abstainations, but I have no idea.
    My guess that a clear majority of them will now vote for suspension and overall the motion will be carried by a very sizeable majority. It’s now surely odds-on that a recall petition will be successful and, like @Sean_F , Paterson cannot be the Tory candidate. In any event I suspect the seat will now be lost.

    This has all been an utter disgrace, arguably even more egregious than Jenrick dining with those developers.
    Owen seems personally quite popular, which astonishes me since he does a good impression of a stupid, malevolent, and incompetent crook.
    I sense he is very "clubbable". Think that's the word anyway.
    Do you mean in the "old buffer in a well upholstered leather arm chair" sense, or in the "Norwegian meeting a baby seal" sense?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,817
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    Ah! Mine is a Surface Book [i.e. no. 1]. Its attitude to repairability is that of the Tory Party to financial probity. THough it does depend on which model you have.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    Aren't they the ones that come apart into tablet and keyboard? If so (and the gubbins are all in the tablet part) then just buy a new keyboard?

    Edit: e.g. this? https://www.microsoft.com/en-gb/d/surface-pro-keyboard/93KCSBM0CFPS/
    (not exactly cheap, but much cheaper than the whole shebang?)
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
    Except that many people have already said they expect Covid vaccines could become annual. I heard an interview with Prof Van Tam yesterday on the radio while I was driving and he made that point.

    So what more do you want? Behind the scenes, and in public if you want to pay attention, its already getting said. But the priority for the message to get out there is quite rightly get your jab now - not get next year's jab too.

    Getting people to get their jabs now is the most important message to have now. Getting them to get their annual jab next year alongside their annual flu jab is a much simpler message that can be given next year.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    Get a cheap external keyboard?
    Typing directly onto an MS Surface is a nightmare. I use a remote keyboard and mouse.

    But then I haven't been on the eurostar in two years and I'm thinking Leon is a travelling kind.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,817
    edited November 2021
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    Get a cheap external keyboard?
    The ordinary Microsoft wireless keyboard plus Manx mouse plus USB plug in thingy combination pack works fine with my Surface Book, so far as I can tell. No need for an expensive dock thingy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
    Except that many people have already said they expect Covid vaccines could become annual. I heard an interview with Prof Van Tam yesterday on the radio while I was driving and he made that point.

    So what more do you want? Behind the scenes, and in public if you want to pay attention, its already getting said. But the priority for the message to get out there is quite rightly get your jab now - not get next year's jab too.

    Getting people to get their jabs now is the most important message to have now. Getting them to get their annual jab next year alongside their annual flu jab is a much simpler message that can be given next year.
    If you think that it will be an annual jab then let's have our bet. You can buy 5 months for mention or happy to construct a market for them becoming available. 7-9 months you can buy 9 months.

    Fiver a month?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    I have to admit that I am perplexed by this u-turn. Completely stunned. I am naive enough to think the tories collectively realised they were going on a path to the gutter, rather than it being some complex political calculation.

    If people can praise Rayner for retracting her scum comments, then perhaps they might consider giving the tories some credit over this.

    But people know that Rayner just blurted out her 'scum' comment and, whilst saying it at all reveals poor judgement (as she herself came to accept), who hasn't said or done something dumb in the heat of the moment?

    Whereas this masterstroke from no. 10 took days of planning and choreographing, there must have been dozens of meetings going through the issues and arguments, ministers and others were briefed and sent out onto the airwaves to defend their plan; in the runup to yesterday all the weaknesses in their position and the political risks were spelled out by politicians and in the media. Everything they needed to know to decide whether to send the cavalry toward the guns was known before yesterday; nothing has changed overnight except that now there are dead horses all over the field.
    This website often proves the old maxim: educated people are far more sympathetic to the left than they are to the right. It really isn't that suprising, as it has been the case for well over a century.

  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
    Except that many people have already said they expect Covid vaccines could become annual. I heard an interview with Prof Van Tam yesterday on the radio while I was driving and he made that point.

    So what more do you want? Behind the scenes, and in public if you want to pay attention, its already getting said. But the priority for the message to get out there is quite rightly get your jab now - not get next year's jab too.

    Getting people to get their jabs now is the most important message to have now. Getting them to get their annual jab next year alongside their annual flu jab is a much simpler message that can be given next year.
    If you think that it will be an annual jab then let's have our bet. You can buy 5 months for mention or happy to construct a market for them becoming available. 7-9 months you can buy 9 months.

    Fiver a month?
    Define mention? As I said it was mentioned yesterday by Prof Van Tam. So depending upon how you defined it that's already a pre-settled market.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    darkage said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    I have to admit that I am perplexed by this u-turn. Completely stunned. I am naive enough to think the tories collectively realised they were going on a path to the gutter, rather than it being some complex political calculation.

    If people can praise Rayner for retracting her scum comments, then perhaps they might consider giving the tories some credit over this.

    But people know that Rayner just blurted out her 'scum' comment and, whilst saying it at all reveals poor judgement (as she herself came to accept), who hasn't said or done something dumb in the heat of the moment?

    Whereas this masterstroke from no. 10 took days of planning and choreographing, there must have been dozens of meetings going through the issues and arguments, ministers and others were briefed and sent out onto the airwaves to defend their plan; in the runup to yesterday all the weaknesses in their position and the political risks were spelled out by politicians and in the media. Everything they needed to know to decide whether to send the cavalry toward the guns was known before yesterday; nothing has changed overnight except that now there are dead horses all over the field.
    This website often proves the old maxim: educated people are far more sympathetic to the left than they are to the right. It really isn't that suprising, as it has been the case for well over a century.

    Butting in just to correct something. Rayner didn't just blurt it out. She said it twice in quick succession, once in the chamber itself. So it can't just be dismissed as a heat of the moment thing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125

    kinabalu said:

    JohnO said:

    kjh said:

    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.

    It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
    Pathetic response
    Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
    You would regain respect if you could just say:-

    'I was wrong yesterday'
    I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.

    I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
    You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible

    You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
    The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.

    What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
    Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.

    I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.

    My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
    Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
    I think that is a very interesting question. I'm going to guess a huge number of abstainations, but I have no idea.
    My guess that a clear majority of them will now vote for suspension and overall the motion will be carried by a very sizeable majority. It’s now surely odds-on that a recall petition will be successful and, like @Sean_F , Paterson cannot be the Tory candidate. In any event I suspect the seat will now be lost.

    This has all been an utter disgrace, arguably even more egregious than Jenrick dining with those developers.
    Owen seems personally quite popular, which astonishes me since he does a good impression of a stupid, malevolent, and incompetent crook.
    I sense he is very "clubbable". Think that's the word anyway.
    Do you mean in the "old buffer in a well upholstered leather arm chair" sense, or in the "Norwegian meeting a baby seal" sense?
    Yes, it looks like he's morphed from the first to the second, doesn't it. Let's see though. They might be hatching something else now. You can't underestimate these chaps.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125

    Mr. Carnyx, sounds like when I tried to clean the inside of my PS4.

    What do you think of the term "cultural marxism", Morris?

    Does it irritate or pass muster?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,804
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    I have one of those. It's a tricky operation but if you have a claw hammer, try repeatedly hitting the "L" button until it unsticks. Force is your friend here.

    It worked for me. Let us know how you get on.
    Presumably by means of a new device.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758

    LOL

    No10 didn’t tell Owen Paterson it was performing U-turn

    He was in supermarket when he found out he was no longer off the hook in call from BBC journalist, @bbclaurak tells #wato


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1456248699978457095?s=21

    No doubt his shopping trolley was packed with products from Randox and Lynn Country Foods in a desperate attempt to boost their takings and save his consultancies.
    Were those the companies involved? They should face some sort of sanction too. (I presume they don't?)
  • Mr. kinabalu, I have to admit, that wasn't on my to do list when cleaning the interior of my PS4.

    Perhaps unexpectedly, I don't really use it. Dead against the far left, of course.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
    Except that many people have already said they expect Covid vaccines could become annual. I heard an interview with Prof Van Tam yesterday on the radio while I was driving and he made that point.

    So what more do you want? Behind the scenes, and in public if you want to pay attention, its already getting said. But the priority for the message to get out there is quite rightly get your jab now - not get next year's jab too.

    Getting people to get their jabs now is the most important message to have now. Getting them to get their annual jab next year alongside their annual flu jab is a much simpler message that can be given next year.
    I'm not convinced that covid jabs will be needed every year. If it becomes endemic (TBH it probably already has) we will all get exposed to it repeatedly, so the 2 or 3 jabs we've had will allow us to experience the virus in relative safety. Kids will get it young and then not have an issue until much later when they age and become frail, and their immune system starts to fail.

    We'll see, but its not a given that its annual boosters for all, forever.
  • Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice.

    I've prised the key away and given it a bit of a clean and it seems to be working now. Lalalalaalalala

    lalalalalalal

    lllllllllll


    LLLLLLLLLeon

    Yay

    Saved me £1000, for now. Gratitude

    A £1000 keyboard?

    What's it made from?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Scott_xP said:

    Last night when @SamCoatesSky asked @OwenPaterson why two companies pay him more than £100,000 a year he said, “You’d have to ask them.” So we did. This morning @RandoxOfficial would only say “No comment” https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1455980402242428932

    @SamCoatesSky @OwenPaterson @RandoxOfficial We also asked Lynn Country Foods, the County Down-based sausage & meats manufacturer that pays @OwenPaterson £12,000 a year, why they employ him & whether he remains an advisor. A spokesperson said: “Lynn Country Foods will not be commenting at this time”.
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1456240926754578435

    I am loving Paterson's hubris.

    Yesterday evening he was demanding Kathryn Stone's head on a silver platter. Now his nuts are back in the vice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.

    My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
    That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
    The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"

    Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
    She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
    Ah, like privately educated political outsider Laura Kussenberg who's family includes: chair/president of Royal College of General Practitioners; a high court judge (among other roles), Govenor General of Nigeria; high commisioner of Mozambique.

    So outsider.
    But But But... they got their jobs through Merit*. Merit is the New Nobility.

    So they have a... Divine Right to Rule.

    What is interesting is that people outside the new Upper 10,000 are so ungrateful. They even presume to suggest that some of them are not there on merit.....

    *Getting degrees at Oxbridge etc.
    I don't worship at the altar of Meritocracy either - it's just another 'ocracy' - but it's not at all clear to me what you are driving at with this Upper 10,000 business. What do you want? The top jobs going to a birth nobility instead? Decided by a random number generator? Going to the worst educated in a kind of Cultural Revolution? Or maybe what you want is for there not to be any top jobs? In which case, the latter, you're a kindred spirit. But I suspect you aren't. All I really pick up is a kind of enigmatic whinge at a type of person. A type who irritates you. So what gives?
    The point I am making is an old one - the Revolution came and went and all we get is the New Managerial class.

    Further, that the new incumbents are even more endowed with belief in their absolute right to rule than the Old Regime.

    I think on the group of lawyers I discussed the problem of shoplifting with a while ago. To their minds, shoplifting shouldn't be prosecuted, since the criminals are such wretched victims themselves. When I pointed out that the shop keepers might not agree, the curling of lips was magnificent... It comes back to another theme, I think...

    The modern world has sold Democracy to the masses. It has been made a Cornerstone* of the legitimacy of government. Yet, to those that rule, more and more of the structure of our society is supposed to be beyond the reach of the ballot - to be held safely among the lawyers and... experts.

    Yet none dare say, outright, that Democracy has its limits. So we have a structure where democracy is preached by the state, but the state declares that we are bound to object it's dictat on various things *and* we are not allowed to have a say

    I recall an interesting conversation I had with a young relative who was studying history. She was appalled when I said that some of those involve in Irish Nationalism had *rejected* democracy as the last argument. She thought I was saying that they were evil. I was trying to explain that they simply had a different belief in the sanctity of the ballot and it's power.

    *Ha ha - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornerstone_Speech
    But do these shopkeeper-hating lawyers have any power? Last time I looked, shoplifting was still a crime and people still go to jail for it.
    We live in a liberal democracy, and there is an often unacknowledged tension between those two words. The liberal aspects are supposed to protect individuals and minority groups from the tyranny of the majority. To the extent that that creates some constraint on democracy, I am not sure that is something we should bemoan. I guess the question is where exactly we put those constraints on democracy.
    I'm comfortable with much of the day to day business of running the country being delegated to experts, aka people who know what they're doing. I don't see that as a conspiracy. It's the job of politicians to ensure that they do know what they are doing and aren't simply acting in their own interests, of course.
    They were the kind of layers who work for the big firms that will end up writing our laws, and writing policy papers that the System will use. You will note that in many parts of the country, shop lifting is essentially ignore by the police and and prosecutorial system - they simply use discretion to prioritise it to... zero.

    It is not about hating shop keepers. To their minds, they were Plato's Philosopher Kings, making the Right Choices. The shop keepers in that world are ignorant wretches, who need guidance from their benevolent superiors.

    The issue, which needs to be addressed, is not the day to day running of the country, so much as the ultimate control and oversight of that running.

    Some people want to take more and more out of the democratic political sphere and place it in the legal/human rights sphere. For example, some years ago, there was an attempt to place control of state pensions in the human rights sphere - rejected by the courts, it would have put a large section of state benefits outside democratic control and left the government in the interesting situation of having to provide money for whatever the courts decided. In fact that was the reason for the rejection by the High Court, IIRC.

    The problem is that this situation is corrosive to social compact. My personal preference is for Swiss style referenda and democratic control on everything.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125

    Aslan said:

    British people should consider themselves very lucky with what they have.

    You don't get likes on social media by considering yourself lucky with what you have: you get them by writing emotive spiels about fascism coming to the UK. And unlike betting, when it turns out fascism wasn't coming to the UK after all you don't lose your likes because you were wrong. Instead, you just wait for the next opportunity to say fascism is coming to the UK and collect more likes.
    Is this the acid test you set for a Tory government then? They must jump that 'not fascist' bar?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,804
    kinabalu said:

    JohnO said:

    kjh said:

    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.

    It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
    Pathetic response
    Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
    You would regain respect if you could just say:-

    'I was wrong yesterday'
    I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.

    I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
    You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible

    You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
    The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.

    What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
    Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.

    I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.

    My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
    Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
    I think that is a very interesting question. I'm going to guess a huge number of abstainations, but I have no idea.
    My guess that a clear majority of them will now vote for suspension and overall the motion will be carried by a very sizeable majority. It’s now surely odds-on that a recall petition will be successful and, like @Sean_F , Paterson cannot be the Tory candidate. In any event I suspect the seat will now be lost.

    This has all been an utter disgrace, arguably even more egregious than Jenrick dining with those developers.
    Owen seems personally quite popular, which astonishes me since he does a good impression of a stupid, malevolent, and incompetent crook.
    I sense he is very "clubbable". Think that's the word anyway.
    Like a baby seal?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
    Except that many people have already said they expect Covid vaccines could become annual. I heard an interview with Prof Van Tam yesterday on the radio while I was driving and he made that point.

    So what more do you want? Behind the scenes, and in public if you want to pay attention, its already getting said. But the priority for the message to get out there is quite rightly get your jab now - not get next year's jab too.

    Getting people to get their jabs now is the most important message to have now. Getting them to get their annual jab next year alongside their annual flu jab is a much simpler message that can be given next year.
    If you think that it will be an annual jab then let's have our bet. You can buy 5 months for mention or happy to construct a market for them becoming available. 7-9 months you can buy 9 months.

    Fiver a month?
    Define mention? As I said it was mentioned yesterday by Prof Van Tam. So depending upon how you defined it that's already a pre-settled market.
    Available 7-9 months you buy at 9 months fiver a month stop out for me at 9x5 = £45.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Jonathan said:

    Well I know there are few opposition fans here, but they have played a key role in the past 24 hrs. Simple, direct opposition. More please.

    It's been quite a team effort. Rayner and Lady Fugee have been really effective. Early days, but it looks like Starmer acquired a pair of Rayner's balls in the handover.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125

    Mr. kinabalu, I have to admit, that wasn't on my to do list when cleaning the interior of my PS4.

    Perhaps unexpectedly, I don't really use it. Dead against the far left, of course.

    Yes, I know you're dead against the far left. But that's a bit banal. We all are. More interesting and unusual is your taking up metaphorical arms against many and varied wonky terms (islamophobia, lived experience, taking the knee, you know, all that stuff). And I just wondered about this one, which was bandied around a lot on here yesterday, Cultural Marxism. Does it annoy you? Do you shudder a little when you see or hear it? I'm thinking you do but am I right in thinking that?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    I have one of those. It's a tricky operation but if you have a claw hammer, try repeatedly hitting the "L" button until it unsticks. Force is your friend here.

    It worked for me. Let us know how you get on.
    "Claw hammer"

    No, no, no.

    You need an explosive lens - say 50Kg or so of Baratol and Composition B.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    edited November 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    Last night when @SamCoatesSky asked @OwenPaterson why two companies pay him more than £100,000 a year he said, “You’d have to ask them.” So we did. This morning @RandoxOfficial would only say “No comment” https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1455980402242428932

    @SamCoatesSky @OwenPaterson @RandoxOfficial We also asked Lynn Country Foods, the County Down-based sausage & meats manufacturer that pays @OwenPaterson £12,000 a year, why they employ him & whether he remains an advisor. A spokesperson said: “Lynn Country Foods will not be commenting at this time”.
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1456240926754578435

    I am loving Paterson's hubris.

    Yesterday evening he was demanding Kathryn Stone's head on a silver platter. Now his nuts are back in the vice.
    Patterson also a leading Brexiter, ofcourse. So strange that it all these calls for greater accountability and popular sovereignty seem to end at the doors of the Commons.
  • Mr. kinabalu, not really.

    I'm not sure why you're so interested either.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Read this whole thread...

    This is the big question. Clear a one party standards committee isn't viable and they'll need another think on that but what happens to this case?
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1456212332288294912

    And if you are a Tory MP, weep.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,571

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    I have one of those. It's a tricky operation but if you have a claw hammer, try repeatedly hitting the "L" button until it unsticks. Force is your friend here.

    It worked for me. Let us know how you get on.
    "Claw hammer"

    No, no, no.

    You need an explosive lens - say 50Kg or so of Baratol and Composition B.
    A lot of precise directed force is required: perhaps leave it on some concrete and drive a tank over it?

    An anecdote: one of my dad's JCB drivers was fed up with his thermos flasks getting broken on site. He came in one Monday with a metal flask that claimed to be unbreakable. He proceeded to knock it against things to prove it.

    Later that day, he realises he's left his snap bag outside the cabin. He found it on the ground, where he had driven over it.

    Result: a broken 'unbreakable' flask.

    He was not a happy man ...
  • Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice.

    I've prised the key away and given it a bit of a clean and it seems to be working now. Lalalalaalalala

    lalalalalalal

    lllllllllll


    LLLLLLLLLeon

    Yay

    Saved me £1000, for now. Gratitude

    A £1000 keyboard?

    What's it made from?
    Flint, presumably.

    Another reason why fixing the l was so important; fint knapping just sounds kinky.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
    Except that many people have already said they expect Covid vaccines could become annual. I heard an interview with Prof Van Tam yesterday on the radio while I was driving and he made that point.

    So what more do you want? Behind the scenes, and in public if you want to pay attention, its already getting said. But the priority for the message to get out there is quite rightly get your jab now - not get next year's jab too.

    Getting people to get their jabs now is the most important message to have now. Getting them to get their annual jab next year alongside their annual flu jab is a much simpler message that can be given next year.
    If you think that it will be an annual jab then let's have our bet. You can buy 5 months for mention or happy to construct a market for them becoming available. 7-9 months you can buy 9 months.

    Fiver a month?
    Define mention? As I said it was mentioned yesterday by Prof Van Tam. So depending upon how you defined it that's already a pre-settled market.
    Available 7-9 months you buy at 9 months fiver a month stop out for me at 9x5 = £45.
    Are you talking about a line bet or a spread bet?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Statement expected from Owen Paterson soon, understand he’s resigning
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1456267572509220876
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    I have one of those. It's a tricky operation but if you have a claw hammer, try repeatedly hitting the "L" button until it unsticks. Force is your friend here.

    It worked for me. Let us know how you get on.
    "Claw hammer"

    No, no, no.

    You need an explosive lens - say 50Kg or so of Baratol and Composition B.
    A lot of precise directed force is required: perhaps leave it on some concrete and drive a tank over it?

    An anecdote: one of my dad's JCB drivers was fed up with his thermos flasks getting broken on site. He came in one Monday with a metal flask that claimed to be unbreakable. He proceeded to knock it against things to prove it.

    Later that day, he realises he's left his snap bag outside the cabin. He found it on the ground, where he had driven over it.

    Result: a broken 'unbreakable' flask.

    He was not a happy man ...
    I think I mentioned a previous bosses response to people breaking laptops to get a new one?

    They got the "military spec" unbreakables the field types in the oil business got. Weighed tons and were very low performance.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    And he's gone...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758

    Jonathan said:

    Well I know there are few opposition fans here, but they have played a key role in the past 24 hrs. Simple, direct opposition. More please.

    It's been quite a team effort. Rayner and Lady Fugee have been really effective. Early days, but it looks like Starmer acquired a pair of Rayner's balls in the handover.
    They really couldn't get the issue wrong. Quite unbelieveable.

    Stupid from Boris. However thank god we avoided Leadsome if this is the sort of idea she thinks is good. Kwarteng now looks like a chump too.

    However, assuming nobody tries to defend Paterson (now surely tarred by all this beyomnd redemption), the end result is just what it should have been. The Tories have probably just thrown away 2% in the polls though, and I don't think it's the sort of thing that'll swing back in a week or two.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Read this whole thread...

    This is the big question. Clear a one party standards committee isn't viable and they'll need another think on that but what happens to this case?
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1456212332288294912

    And if you are a Tory MP, weep.

    Ah, I see Charles Moore was heavily involved, lobbying on behalf of Paterson etc. I knew there'd be a strong Speccie connection in all of this somewhere.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,817
    Scott_xP said:

    And he's gone...

    So the Tories went round and round in ever-decreasing circles to achieve this?

    And nobody will trust them to review the standards system now. Or at least they will be trusted even less.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    🚨🚨 Owen Paterson is quitting Parliament: “I will remain a public servant but outside the cruel world of politics.”

    This is going to be quite some by-election in Shropshire. Watch out for white suits.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1456268181278842901
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Scott_xP said:

    And he's gone...

    Another by-election?
  • Paterson resigns with immediate effect
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,571
    Scott_xP said:

    Statement expected from Owen Paterson soon, understand he’s resigning
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1456267572509220876

    The clause 111 in one of the replies to that tweet is interesting. Why might it be permissible in 'a single exceptional case'? Were all 14 times he did it regarding to one issue (and therefore could be seen as one case), or multiple unrelated issues?

    Obv. I haven't read the report ...
  • Jumped or pushed, I wonder .. ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125
    Scott_xP said:

    And he's gone...

    Johnson?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    I have to admit that I am perplexed by this u-turn. Completely stunned. I am naive enough to think the tories collectively realised they were going on a path to the gutter, rather than it being some complex political calculation.

    If people can praise Rayner for retracting her scum comments, then perhaps they might consider giving the tories some credit over this.

    But people know that Rayner just blurted out her 'scum' comment and, whilst saying it at all reveals poor judgement (as she herself came to accept), who hasn't said or done something dumb in the heat of the moment?

    Whereas this masterstroke from no. 10 took days of planning and choreographing, there must have been dozens of meetings going through the issues and arguments, ministers and others were briefed and sent out onto the airwaves to defend their plan; in the runup to yesterday all the weaknesses in their position and the political risks were spelled out by politicians and in the media. Everything they needed to know to decide whether to send the cavalry toward the guns was known before yesterday; nothing has changed overnight except that now there are dead horses all over the field.
    And that she actually apologised.

    Rather than pretended to discover (shock) that two things had been conflated - after spending the entire previous day arguing that it was right to conflate them - and somehow it was all just an unfortunate happenstance.
  • Owen Paterson resigns as an MP.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited November 2021

    Paterson resigns with immediate effect

    As an MP?

    If so, great post from @shadsy this am, Re N. Shrops. by election!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Owen Paterson resigns as an MP.

    You gotta get up real early in the morning to beat Scott. ;)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Owen Paterson resigns as an MP.

    Paging Martin Bell.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    Very nice safe Con seat up for grabs there...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,804
    Had he just taken his punishment he might well have survived a recall application and been able to hang on until the next election. But, frankly, this is better and more reflects the gravity of the offence.

    24 hours to forget by the government, that's for sure.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    Scott_xP said:

    Read this whole thread...

    This is the big question. Clear a one party standards committee isn't viable and they'll need another think on that but what happens to this case?
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1456212332288294912

    And if you are a Tory MP, weep.

    Ah, I see Charles Moore was heavily involved, lobbying on behalf of Paterson etc. I knew there'd be a strong Speccie connection in all of this somewhere.
    From what I've seen the speccie correspondents have been less than sympathetic.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Owen Paterson resigns as an MP.

    Paging Martin Bell.
    Why? Unless you think Paterson is going to run in the by-election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,571

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Advice needed. If you may be so kind

    I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse

    Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?

    What exact model of laptop?
    Microsoft surface pro
    I have one of those. It's a tricky operation but if you have a claw hammer, try repeatedly hitting the "L" button until it unsticks. Force is your friend here.

    It worked for me. Let us know how you get on.
    "Claw hammer"

    No, no, no.

    You need an explosive lens - say 50Kg or so of Baratol and Composition B.
    A lot of precise directed force is required: perhaps leave it on some concrete and drive a tank over it?

    An anecdote: one of my dad's JCB drivers was fed up with his thermos flasks getting broken on site. He came in one Monday with a metal flask that claimed to be unbreakable. He proceeded to knock it against things to prove it.

    Later that day, he realises he's left his snap bag outside the cabin. He found it on the ground, where he had driven over it.

    Result: a broken 'unbreakable' flask.

    He was not a happy man ...
    I think I mentioned a previous bosses response to people breaking laptops to get a new one?

    They got the "military spec" unbreakables the field types in the oil business got. Weighed tons and were very low performance.
    The boss of one of my companies was the opposite. If any staff member got a laptop, phone or other device that was better than one he had - say a later-model laptop - his own would mysteriously get damaged beyond repair, and he'd ask the IT department for the later one, or better. It happened so much that the IT dept. tried to second-guess him, and just bought two of any 'latest and greatest' thing.

    It went slightly wrong occasionally - as when a salesman got a loan of a new device from a customer. The device was not generally on sale in Japan, yet alone the UK. No, he could not get one, and could he stop pouring coffee on things ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Jumped or pushed, I wonder .. ?

    Tucked up by Johnson, so jumped or pushed? Not sure
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,030
    edited November 2021
    What an utter waste of political capital by Boris

    Wholly avoidable

    Time for letters to the 1922 committee
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    The thing that’s so ridiculous is this would have all been over in 30 days if Paterson and No10 had just sucked it up rather than blowing it out of all proportion — instead his political career is over and the chief whip’s reputation is in tatters
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1456269725718089728
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783
    JohnO said:

    kjh said:

    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.

    It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
    Pathetic response
    Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
    You would regain respect if you could just say:-

    'I was wrong yesterday'
    I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.

    I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
    You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible

    You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
    The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.

    What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
    Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.

    I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.

    My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
    Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
    I think that is a very interesting question. I'm going to guess a huge number of abstainations, but I have no idea.
    My guess that a clear majority of them will now vote for suspension and overall the motion will be carried by a very sizeable margin. It’s now surely odds-on that a recall petition will be successful and, like @Sean_F , Paterson cannot be the Tory candidate. In any event I suspect the seat will now be lost.

    This has all been an utter disgrace, arguably even more egregious than Jenrick dining with those developers.
    Thanks for that reply John. Interesting. I assumed many wouldn't be comfortable doing a 180 degree turn. What is the story re Sean? He is a poster I rather like although our politics don't align. I have a vague recollection of him going ukip at some point but I may have just imagined that.

    I see in my post I invented a new word.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125

    Mr. kinabalu, not really.

    I'm not sure why you're so interested either.

    I'm interested in everyone and anything apart from Dan Hodges. :smile:

    But ok, thanks. No probs with that one then. Back to more important things for the both of us.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

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    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
    Except that many people have already said they expect Covid vaccines could become annual. I heard an interview with Prof Van Tam yesterday on the radio while I was driving and he made that point.

    So what more do you want? Behind the scenes, and in public if you want to pay attention, its already getting said. But the priority for the message to get out there is quite rightly get your jab now - not get next year's jab too.

    Getting people to get their jabs now is the most important message to have now. Getting them to get their annual jab next year alongside their annual flu jab is a much simpler message that can be given next year.
    If you think that it will be an annual jab then let's have our bet. You can buy 5 months for mention or happy to construct a market for them becoming available. 7-9 months you can buy 9 months.

    Fiver a month?
    Define mention? As I said it was mentioned yesterday by Prof Van Tam. So depending upon how you defined it that's already a pre-settled market.
    Available 7-9 months you buy at 9 months fiver a month stop out for me at 9x5 = £45.
    Are you talking about a line bet or a spread bet?
    Well I'm assuming a spread bet with you buying the nine months. So if it's ten months you get a fiver, etc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907
    If there is now to be a by election in Shropshire North because of Paterson's resignation and standing down as an MP the Tories should still win it reasonably comfortably even with a reduced majority.

    Shropshire was 56.9% Leave and the Tories got 62% of the vote in 2019 and had a majority of 40% over Labour.

    Like Old Bexley and Sidcup the main question could be if ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place as UKIP took 3rd place in the seat in 2015 with 17%

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    tlg86 said:

    Owen Paterson resigns as an MP.

    Paging Martin Bell.
    Why? Unless you think Paterson is going to run in the by-election.
    Not at all, I was thinking more about a free hit on Johnsonian Conservatism in general.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,367
    Scott_xP said:

    The thing that’s so ridiculous is this would have all been over in 30 days if Paterson and No10 had just sucked it up rather than blowing it out of all proportion — instead his political career is over and the chief whip’s reputation is in tatters
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1456269725718089728

    Yep - the entire issue is a grade A mess based on picking the worst possible case to use as the example.

    Paterson should have been told it was too blatant for even Boris to protect you and left him to quietly take his punishment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    HYUFD said:

    If there is now to be a by election in Shropshire North because of Paterson's resignation and standing down as an MP the Tories should still win it reasonably comfortably even with a reduced majority.

    Shropshire was 56.9% Leave and the Tories got 62% of the vote in 2019 and had a majority of 40% over Labour.

    Like Old Bexley and Sidcup the main question could be if ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place as UKIP took 3rd place in the seat in 2015 with 17%

    Yeah, safe Con seat up for grabs there. I wonder who they will pick as their candidate?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    If there is now to be a by election in Shropshire North because of Paterson's resignation and standing down as an MP the Tories should still win it reasonably comfortably even with a reduced majority.

    Shropshire was 56.9% Leave and the Tories got 62% of the vote in 2019 and had a majority of 40% over Labour.

    Like Old Bexley and Sidcup the main question could be if ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place as UKIP took 3rd place in the seat in 2015 with 17%

    A free hit for an anti-sleaze candidate if the opposition parties are so minded.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

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    TOPPING said:

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    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.

    Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?

    I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.

    I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.

    Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
    Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.

    Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
    Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
    After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.


    I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.

    America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
    It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".

    What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
    I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.

    The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?

    If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
    Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.

    What are they going to call jab #4?
    Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.

    Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
    It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.

    And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
    There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.

    Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
    So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.

    Edit: before it's mentioned.
    5 months time is the other side of the annual winter flu crisis and we will be past the most risky part facing us.

    If its getting mentioned then, why should we care now? Getting through the winter flu crisis is what matters.
    Because people getting jabs is all about effective government communication. Effective government strategic communication. If it is necessary and they want take up. If people think it's all over now then they will 2x think it all over in the new year as spring springs.

    It is the govt's shortsightedness that is worrying.
    Its not shortsighted to be dealing with the winter, that is most important. It will be over in the Spring. Its winter that's the worry.

    If further jabs are needed then that's next year's problem. Cross that bridge when we get there. Probably won't happen until autumn next year anyway, with the annual flu jab - and I don't think many people will be confused or surprised by annual Covid jabs to go with annual flu jabs.

    Incidentally that's already been officially suggested.
    Dealing with winter and not worrying about beyond is the definition of short-sightedness.

    You are saying that's a good thing; I am not so sure.
    Except that many people have already said they expect Covid vaccines could become annual. I heard an interview with Prof Van Tam yesterday on the radio while I was driving and he made that point.

    So what more do you want? Behind the scenes, and in public if you want to pay attention, its already getting said. But the priority for the message to get out there is quite rightly get your jab now - not get next year's jab too.

    Getting people to get their jabs now is the most important message to have now. Getting them to get their annual jab next year alongside their annual flu jab is a much simpler message that can be given next year.
    If you think that it will be an annual jab then let's have our bet. You can buy 5 months for mention or happy to construct a market for them becoming available. 7-9 months you can buy 9 months.

    Fiver a month?
    Define mention? As I said it was mentioned yesterday by Prof Van Tam. So depending upon how you defined it that's already a pre-settled market.
    Available 7-9 months you buy at 9 months fiver a month stop out for me at 9x5 = £45.
    Are you talking about a line bet or a spread bet?
    Well I'm assuming a spread bet with you buying the nine months. So if it's ten months you get a fiver, etc
    Doesn't seem to be much value there. 9 months from now is August, so would need to be September to get a fiver and that's about when flu vaccines start anyway.

    Happy to buy a fiver from 8 months if you're happy to go with the mid point instead of your spread?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274



    Time for letters to the 1922 committee

    Big G getting a tad over excitable methinks ;)
This discussion has been closed.