Thoughts and prayers for HYUFD at this difficult time. Defending the government line is not easy when Caligula is in charge.
He crawled through lava on here over the last 24 hours to haughtily defend the indefensible only for the government to then drop it.
Bless.
Let's not forget Philip. He put in a shift too. He wouldn't be happy at H getting top banana billing.
I stand by everything I said and have said this is a farce too.
Doesn't change the fact that in any disciplinary system I've ever worked in there is always a right of appeal and there should be one here too. That's all I was saying and I completely stand by that.
I vehemently disagreed with HYUFD yesterday saying corruption is OK so don't conflate us please.
I'm not conflating you. I'd never do that. You are you, he is he, and the 2 of you took different (and lone) tacks as to why the stunt was justified.
The appeal point - there is an appeal built into the process. What you can't do is appeal to Boris Johnson via John Whittingdale. That wouldn't be an improvement.
JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.
My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
Precisely. A simple application of Bayes' rule implies that the expected intelligence of a posh person in a senior job is lower than that of a non-posh person in the same job.
JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.
My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"
Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
Sort of thing a ned does in a stolen car on a peripheral housing estate. There must be a meaningful truth there somewhere.
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.
What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
90% of PB posters now are anti Boris, including you, so no I am not going to apologise in order to fall in line with the PB herd.
If you want an echo chamber fine, I won't be party of it
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
90% of PB posters now are anti Boris, including you, so no I am not going to apologise in order to fall in line with the PB herd.
If you want an echo chamber fine, I won't be party of it
We are all wrong on occasions and yesterday you were wrong to say tories do not care about corruption
Accepting one is wrong on occasions is quite good for the soul
Bailey: CPI expected to peak at 5pc in April next year.
Are they not supposed to target 2% still?
Yes they are. I think they're thinking that it will drop quite quickly after peaking.
My economic textbooks are so out of date, I still think that a substantial increase in money supply is inflationary in the medium term and not just the short time. What an idiot I am!
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.
What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
All governments do the occasional handbrake turns. The Johnson government is pioneering the constant doughnut turn.
Bailey: CPI expected to peak at 5pc in April next year.
Are they not supposed to target 2% still?
Yes they are. I think they're thinking that it will drop quite quickly after peaking.
My economic textbooks are so out of date, I still think that a substantial increase in money supply is inflationary in the medium term and not just the short time. What an idiot I am!
My course in economics that I did is probably out of date as well for the record.
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.
What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Must be murder on the doorsteps when you give potential voters the long list of questions that they have to answer correctly before they can be allowed to vote Conservative.
'Have you had an erotic dream about Angela Rayner?'
Bailey: CPI expected to peak at 5pc in April next year.
Are they not supposed to target 2% still?
Yes they are. I think they're thinking that it will drop quite quickly after peaking.
But if the target is immediate shouldn't they be raising rates? It's easy to say 'we think inflation will come down in the medium term.' Maybe the remit is wrong but they should stick to the one they have been given.
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
90% of PB posters now are anti Boris, including you, so no I am not going to apologise in order to fall in line with the PB herd.
If you want an echo chamber fine, I won't be party of it
90% of PB posters are anti-sleaze, and in this instance Boris has got his fingerprints all over it, following his decision to allow a three-line whip on yesterday's vote.
On Boris, however, the views of PB posters are much more varied. Some really like him; some admire his awesome political skills; some think he's the right chap to be PM in post-Brexit days; some are largely indifferent. Other think he's a liar and a charlatan. But it's inaccurate to say that 90% of posters are anti-Boris.
JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.
My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"
Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
Bailey: CPI expected to peak at 5pc in April next year.
Are they not supposed to target 2% still?
Yes they are. I think they're thinking that it will drop quite quickly after peaking.
But if the target is immediate shouldn't they be raising rates? It's easy to say 'we think inflation will come down in the medium term.' Maybe the remit is wrong but they should stick to the one they have been given.
Then you get into central bank induced oscillations - if they react to every short term indicator, that could make things less stable.
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
It is odd. Every time this happens a minister gets torn apart in the media in the morning completely unnecessarily. This morning was painful. If I was that minister I would be livid having to defend the indefensible only to see it reversed hours later.
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
It is odd. Every time this happens a minister gets torn apart in the media in the morning completely unnecessarily. This morning was painful. If I was that minister I would be livid having to defend the indefensible only to see it reversed hours later.
Maybe @HYUFD could be appointed by Boris into that role
JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.
My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"
Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
Yes, she is from the New Upper 10,000, the New Posh - she isn't from an old family etc...
They have given us into the hand of new unhappy lords, Lords without anger or honour, who dare not carry their swords. They fight by shuffling papers; they have bright dead alien eyes; They look at our labour and laughter as a tired man looks at flies. And the load of their loveless pity is worse than the ancient wrongs, Their doors are shut in the evening; and they know no songs.
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
It is odd. Every time this happens a minister gets torn apart in the media in the morning completely unnecessarily. This morning was painful. If I was that minister I would be livid having to defend the indefensible only to see it reversed hours later.
I think it's a breaking down kinda thing.
He gazed up at the enormous fat face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the blubbery smirk. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Boris.
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
It is odd. Every time this happens a minister gets torn apart in the media in the morning completely unnecessarily. This morning was painful. If I was that minister I would be livid having to defend the indefensible only to see it reversed hours later.
Maybe @HYUFD could be appointed by Boris into that role
He is the best in the business
While he can pull that role off on a typed anonymous forum I don't think the "Minister for Excusing the Inexcusable" would be able to do so that easily in a voice or TV interview.
Heck the job title alone would give the game away.
Bailey: CPI expected to peak at 5pc in April next year.
Are they not supposed to target 2% still?
Yes they are. I think they're thinking that it will drop quite quickly after peaking.
But if the target is immediate shouldn't they be raising rates? It's easy to say 'we think inflation will come down in the medium term.' Maybe the remit is wrong but they should stick to the one they have been given.
Then you get into central bank induced oscillations - if they react to every short term indicator, that could make things less stable.
Think of oscillations when towing a trailer....
Fine but you still have to wonder whether they are taking into account things other than the 2% target.
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.
What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
I think that is a very interesting question. I'm going to guess a huge number of abstainations, but I have no idea.
JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.
My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"
Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
Ah, like privately educated political outsider Laura Kussenberg who's family includes: chair/president of Royal College of General Practitioners; a high court judge (among other roles), Govenor General of Nigeria; high commisioner of Mozambique.
Bailey: CPI expected to peak at 5pc in April next year.
Are they not supposed to target 2% still?
Yes they are. I think they're thinking that it will drop quite quickly after peaking.
But if the target is immediate shouldn't they be raising rates? It's easy to say 'we think inflation will come down in the medium term.' Maybe the remit is wrong but they should stick to the one they have been given.
Then you get into central bank induced oscillations - if they react to every short term indicator, that could make things less stable.
Think of oscillations when towing a trailer....
Fine but you still have to wonder whether they are taking into account things other than the 2% target.
Yes, they are*. They are not simply trying to hold inflation to 2% and damn everything else. As you would hope.
*A friend used to work at the BoE research unit - and he spent much of his time writing papers on the effects of various targets and the interactions between them.
BoE forecast real declines in wages over next two years, but the PB Tories have been telling us for months how exciting it is to see wages go up.
That's because wages are going up at the moment. And most people don't think long term
Remember the whole plan around the 4-5 Budgets within the election cycle the whole point is to ensure that with an election in May / June 2023 everyone's pay pocket gets a nice little surprise in their April 2023 payslip
If that means you increase taxes (quietly) in 2022 so that you can reduce them again in 2023 it's job done, as few people have long term memories.
JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.
My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"
Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
Ah, like privately educated political outsider Laura Kussenberg who's family includes: chair/president of Royal College of General Practitioners; a high court judge (among other roles), Govenor General of Nigeria; high commisioner of Mozambique.
So outsider.
But But But... they got their jobs through Merit*. Merit is the New Nobility.
So they have a... Divine Right to Rule.
What is interesting is that people outside the new Upper 10,000 are so ungrateful. They even presume to suggest that some of them are not there on merit.....
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
90% of PB posters now are anti Boris, including you, so no I am not going to apologise in order to fall in line with the PB herd.
If you want an echo chamber fine, I won't be party of it
90% of PB posters are anti-sleaze, and in this instance Boris has got his fingerprints all over it, following his decision to allow a three-line whip on yesterday's vote.
On Boris, however, the views of PB posters are much more varied. Some really like him; some admire his awesome political skills; some think he's the right chap to be PM in post-Brexit days; some are largely indifferent. Other think he's a liar and a charlatan. But it's inaccurate to say that 90% of posters are anti-Boris.
I think in HYUFD world criticising Boris on one in ten issues makes someone anti-Boris. In that sense it may be more than 90%, even if most of us look at it quite differently. I think the group that is most over-represented on here is dissatisfied Tories, and the least represented would be leftish but not politically engaged.
As well as West Lancashire ( see previous thread) there are Con defences in Gloucester and West Sussex. There are also LD defence in Huntingdonshire, Lab defence in Salford, and Ind defence in Rutland. Could be one or two gains and losses.
BoE forecast real declines in wages over next two years, but the PB Tories have been telling us for months how exciting it is to see wages go up.
That's because wages are going up at the moment. And most people don't think long term
Remember the whole plan around the 4-5 Parliamentary Budget is to ensure that with an election in May / June 2023 everyone's pay pocket gets a little surprise in their April payslip
If that means you increase taxes (quietly) in 2022 so that you can reduce them again in 2023 it's job done, as few people have long term memories.
My point was less about political tactics and more about the absolute shithousery of PB Tory “economics”.
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.
What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
I think that is a very interesting question. I'm going to guess a huge number of abstainations, but I have no idea.
My guess that a clear majority of them will now vote for suspension and overall the motion will be carried by a very sizeable margin. It’s now surely odds-on that a recall petition will be successful and, like @Sean_F , Paterson cannot be the Tory candidate. In any event I suspect the seat will now be lost.
This has all been an utter disgrace, arguably even more egregious than Jenrick dining with those developers.
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
I know the main sentiment on here is delight about Boris looking ridiculous. But the thing people should be more happy about is how British democracy just *works*. An MP does something wrong. He is sanctioned. The PM tries to protect him. There is huge outrage. The PM is forced to back down and is weakened from it. The political system doesn't constrain the powerful this well in 90% of the world. British people should consider themselves very lucky with what they have.
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.
What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
I think that is a very interesting question. I'm going to guess a huge number of abstainations, but I have no idea.
My guess that a clear majority of them will now vote for suspension and overall the motion will be carried by a very sizeable majority. It’s now surely odds-on that a recall petition will be successful and, like @Sean_F , Paterson cannot be the Tory candidate. In any event I suspect the seat will now be lost.
This has all been an utter disgrace, arguably even more egregious than Jenrick dining with those developers.
Owen seems personally quite popular, which astonishes me since he does a good impression of a stupid, malevolent, and incompetent crook.
Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.
Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?
I don't know. I'm hardly paying attention to it.
I suppose you could make the argument of pre-emptive action in advance of winter, anticipating more social contact indoors, or the death numbers are still going up, as they catch-up with the latest peak in cases.
Would be much better if there was more attention paid to the vaccine. Immunising more people is the single most effective thing we can do.
Focusing on the vaccine is definitely right - regardless of how one reads the figures, there is plenty of Covid still around and plenty of people on ventilators. Not going all out to promote boosters (and IMO vaccination of children) is a collective own goals - and that's nothing to do with being pro- or anti-lockdown.
Personally I'm trying not to react too much to the daily figures. When the number dropped under 40K there were people saying "See? It's beaten!" and when it went back over 40K there were people shouting "Plan B now". Overall the picture looks fairly stable at a high plateau.
Yesterday on radio 5 I listened in shock as a scientist pointed out how much higher our testing regime is than other countries, and if you take that into account we are not so out of step with our community levels of Covid. Refreshing.
After an incredibly slow start, I think this is probably the most important thing to keep an eye on for the winter.
I don't understand why the USA is dragging its heels so much in the booster rollout considering they had a big head start on that. Its worth remembering that although the UK rolled out jabs first, we prioritised first jabs first, so other nations had a higher share of second jabs for a while that need boosting sooner.
America was for a very long time ahead of us on second jabs, so they should be well ahead on boosters and they're just not.
It's interesting isn't it. We are calling it a "booster" when in actual fact it is a "third jab".
What implications this has for a "fourth dose", and a "fifth dose" is an interesting question.
I couldn't care less if we have a fourth, fifth . . . 80th etc jab having a new one every six or twelve months if required.
The flu jab is annual, why can't the Covid jab be annual or biannual?
If that's what it takes to ensure people are protected and we don't need any other bullshit to live our lives normally, then that's what it takes.
Absolutely but it is the messaging that is important. If we are going to have to have jabs for the foreseeable future then that needs to be introduced. "Booster" implies some kind of finality. 2x jabs then a booster and you're done.
What are they going to call jab #4?
Booster doesn't imply finality it just implies it boosts your protection. If jab 4 is required then that can be called a booster too, or anything else, it doesn't matter.
Those who want finality to Covid are in denial. It's something we need to live with.
It is about the government messaging. Why wasn't the second jab called a booster. The govt is going to have to introduce the idea that we are going to have jabs for the foreseeable future. I see no evidence that they are doing this.
And it matters because as you appreciate it is all about vaccine take-up.
There is no need at all to introduce that idea yet. If that idea needs introducing in six or twelve months time it can be done then.
Getting this one rolled out is what matters, not how we deal with one for next winter.
So shall we have a bet about timing of the 4th jab? My market would be 3-5 months.
Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.
Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?
People have gone a bit crazy. I think there's a big element of Boris/Brexit derangement syndrome too. The people agitating for it don't really care about the virus, they just want to oppose the government. There's so many other valid areas to do that on, picking COVID just seems a bit mad, especially as cases are falling.
On Tuesday when we had the delayed deaths number rolled in my colleague pointed out that the lockdown fascists would use it without context to agitate for restrictions, so it came to pass.
One thing that hasn't sunk in is that as good as the current covid vaccines are, relative to other vaccines, they aren't really much good at preventing transmission. Covid is simply too easily spread for the current vaccines to hold it in check. The vaccines are useful for suppressing serious illness but we will likely incur a lot of cases no matter what.
Further restrictions like NPIs would have to be open-ended, because until we get better vaccines or good treatments we will face a flare up of covid each time we relax restrictions. So anyone arguing for mandatory masks, social distancing, or closing certain bits of the economy is effectively asking for those things to be done for a very long time, not a few weeks or months.
Actually, they look pretty good at suppressing transmission. Within the fully vaccinated group, transmission lines die out quite quickly - just not instantly.
It's the unvaxxed that provide the engine room for ongoing transmission.
Leakage from teens to parents is main driver of cases rise in the older, more vaxxed population. Remove that engine room, and cases should drop considerably. The muffling effect of immunity on every virus generation as it tries to move through an unfriendly vaccinated population causes those chains to exponentially decay.
That graph has me wondering what the average age of the parent of a 12-13 year old would be?
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
90% of PB posters now are anti Boris, including you, so no I am not going to apologise in order to fall in line with the PB herd.
If you want an echo chamber fine, I won't be party of it
90% of PB posters are anti-sleaze, and in this instance Boris has got his fingerprints all over it, following his decision to allow a three-line whip on yesterday's vote.
On Boris, however, the views of PB posters are much more varied. Some really like him; some admire his awesome political skills; some think he's the right chap to be PM in post-Brexit days; some are largely indifferent. Other think he's a liar and a charlatan. But it's inaccurate to say that 90% of posters are anti-Boris.
I think in HYUFD world criticising Boris on one in ten issues makes someone anti-Boris. In that sense it may be more than 90%, even if most of us look at it quite differently. I think the group that is most over-represented on here is dissatisfied Tories, and the least represented would be leftish but not politically engaged.
HYUFD is an anti-democratic authoritarian. In the world of authoritarians, criticism of the dear leader is near heresy.
Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.
Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?
People have gone a bit crazy. I think there's a big element of Boris/Brexit derangement syndrome too. The people agitating for it don't really care about the virus, they just want to oppose the government. There's so many other valid areas to do that on, picking COVID just seems a bit mad, especially as cases are falling.
On Tuesday when we had the delayed deaths number rolled in my colleague pointed out that the lockdown fascists would use it without context to agitate for restrictions, so it came to pass.
One thing that hasn't sunk in is that as good as the current covid vaccines are, relative to other vaccines, they aren't really much good at preventing transmission. Covid is simply too easily spread for the current vaccines to hold it in check. The vaccines are useful for suppressing serious illness but we will likely incur a lot of cases no matter what.
Further restrictions like NPIs would have to be open-ended, because until we get better vaccines or good treatments we will face a flare up of covid each time we relax restrictions. So anyone arguing for mandatory masks, social distancing, or closing certain bits of the economy is effectively asking for those things to be done for a very long time, not a few weeks or months.
Actually, they look pretty good at suppressing transmission. Within the fully vaccinated group, transmission lines die out quite quickly - just not instantly.
It's the unvaxxed that provide the engine room for ongoing transmission.
Leakage from teens to parents is main driver of cases rise in the older, more vaxxed population. Remove that engine room, and cases should drop considerably. The muffling effect of immunity on every virus generation as it tries to move through an unfriendly vaccinated population causes those chains to exponentially decay.
That graph has me wondering what the average age of the parent of a 12-13 year old would be?
Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.
Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?
People have gone a bit crazy. I think there's a big element of Boris/Brexit derangement syndrome too. The people agitating for it don't really care about the virus, they just want to oppose the government. There's so many other valid areas to do that on, picking COVID just seems a bit mad, especially as cases are falling.
On Tuesday when we had the delayed deaths number rolled in my colleague pointed out that the lockdown fascists would use it without context to agitate for restrictions, so it came to pass.
One thing that hasn't sunk in is that as good as the current covid vaccines are, relative to other vaccines, they aren't really much good at preventing transmission. Covid is simply too easily spread for the current vaccines to hold it in check. The vaccines are useful for suppressing serious illness but we will likely incur a lot of cases no matter what.
Further restrictions like NPIs would have to be open-ended, because until we get better vaccines or good treatments we will face a flare up of covid each time we relax restrictions. So anyone arguing for mandatory masks, social distancing, or closing certain bits of the economy is effectively asking for those things to be done for a very long time, not a few weeks or months.
Actually, they look pretty good at suppressing transmission. Within the fully vaccinated group, transmission lines die out quite quickly - just not instantly.
It's the unvaxxed that provide the engine room for ongoing transmission.
Leakage from teens to parents is main driver of cases rise in the older, more vaxxed population. Remove that engine room, and cases should drop considerably. The muffling effect of immunity on every virus generation as it tries to move through an unfriendly vaccinated population causes those chains to exponentially decay.
That graph has me wondering what the average age of the parent of a 12-13 year old would be?
Well, 28 to 33 years old than the kid, so 40 to 46.
Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.
Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?
People have gone a bit crazy. I think there's a big element of Boris/Brexit derangement syndrome too. The people agitating for it don't really care about the virus, they just want to oppose the government. There's so many other valid areas to do that on, picking COVID just seems a bit mad, especially as cases are falling.
On Tuesday when we had the delayed deaths number rolled in my colleague pointed out that the lockdown fascists would use it without context to agitate for restrictions, so it came to pass.
One thing that hasn't sunk in is that as good as the current covid vaccines are, relative to other vaccines, they aren't really much good at preventing transmission. Covid is simply too easily spread for the current vaccines to hold it in check. The vaccines are useful for suppressing serious illness but we will likely incur a lot of cases no matter what.
Further restrictions like NPIs would have to be open-ended, because until we get better vaccines or good treatments we will face a flare up of covid each time we relax restrictions. So anyone arguing for mandatory masks, social distancing, or closing certain bits of the economy is effectively asking for those things to be done for a very long time, not a few weeks or months.
Actually, they look pretty good at suppressing transmission. Within the fully vaccinated group, transmission lines die out quite quickly - just not instantly.
It's the unvaxxed that provide the engine room for ongoing transmission.
Leakage from teens to parents is main driver of cases rise in the older, more vaxxed population. Remove that engine room, and cases should drop considerably. The muffling effect of immunity on every virus generation as it tries to move through an unfriendly vaccinated population causes those chains to exponentially decay.
That graph has me wondering what the average age of the parent of a 12-13 year old would be?
I believe 30-32 is average age for first child. Assume the average parent has two kids, three years apart and you get a number of about 44-45.
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
90% of PB posters now are anti Boris, including you, so no I am not going to apologise in order to fall in line with the PB herd.
If you want an echo chamber fine, I won't be party of it
We're not anti-Boris. We love him. He is showbiz.
He is also a duplicitous, solipsistic twat.
Having such an insight means that we are able to see before you do the policy, political (and therefore possible betting) implications of everything he does. You don't. But as it is a site for political betting it doesn't matter too much.
I have to admit that I am perplexed by this u-turn. Completely stunned. I am naive enough to think the tories collectively realised they were going on a path to the gutter, rather than it being some complex political calculation.
If people can praise Rayner for retracting her scum comments, then perhaps they might consider giving the tories some credit over this.
But people know that Rayner just blurted out her 'scum' comment and, whilst saying it at all reveals poor judgement (as she herself came to accept), who hasn't said or done something dumb in the heat of the moment?
Whereas this masterstroke from no. 10 took days of planning and choreographing, there must have been dozens of meetings going through the issues and arguments, ministers and others were briefed and sent out onto the airwaves to defend their plan; in the runup to yesterday all the weaknesses in their position and the political risks were spelled out by politicians and in the media. Everything they needed to know to decide whether to send the cavalry toward the guns was known before yesterday; nothing has changed overnight except that now there are dead horses all over the field.
@Philip_Thompson didn't support Boris and his govt over this in the same way as he didn't support Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party by voting for them.
@Philip_Thompson didn't support Boris and his govt over this in the same way as he didn't support Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party by voting for them.
PT and HYUFD got owned the same way Kwazy Kwasi and Andrea Leadlight did.
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
90% of PB posters now are anti Boris, including you, so no I am not going to apologise in order to fall in line with the PB herd.
If you want an echo chamber fine, I won't be party of it
You seem to be in an empty room by yourself; I bet there's a grand echo in there....
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.
What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Must be murder on the doorsteps when you give potential voters the long list of questions that they have to answer correctly before they can be allowed to vote Conservative.
'Have you had an erotic dream about Angela Rayner?'
'Er, maybe..?'
'Sorry for wasting your time.'
No, HYUFD would say something quite different by way of parting.
JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.
My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"
Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
Ah, like privately educated political outsider Laura Kussenberg who's family includes: chair/president of Royal College of General Practitioners; a high court judge (among other roles), Govenor General of Nigeria; high commisioner of Mozambique.
So outsider.
But But But... they got their jobs through Merit*. Merit is the New Nobility.
So they have a... Divine Right to Rule.
What is interesting is that people outside the new Upper 10,000 are so ungrateful. They even presume to suggest that some of them are not there on merit.....
*Getting degrees at Oxbridge etc.
I don't worship at the altar of Meritocracy either - it's just another 'ocracy' - but it's not at all clear to me what you are driving at with this Upper 10,000 business. What do you want? The top jobs going to a birth nobility instead? Decided by a random number generator? Going to the worst educated in a kind of Cultural Revolution? Or maybe what you want is for there not to be any top jobs? In which case, the latter, you're a kindred spirit. But I suspect you aren't. All I really pick up is a kind of enigmatic whinge at a type of person. A type who irritates you. So what gives?
I see it looks like Jersey are now going to allow replacement boats to fish. If true then common sense prevails. I don't understand how that wasn't a thing in the first place provided the new owner of the old boat also doesn't get a right to fish.
I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse
Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?
Time for Conservative MPs to get their letters in to the 1922. Really, there are plenty of Conservative MPs who can do a better job than this.
It was the majority of Conservative MPs who voted not to suspend Paterson and to review the standards proceedings, Boris did not do this alone
Pathetic response
Jeremy Hunt, Boris' main leadership rival from 2019, even signed Leadsom's amendment to block Paterson's suspension and overhaul the Commons suspension process
You would regain respect if you could just say:-
'I was wrong yesterday'
I did not vote on Leadsom, I was not one of the 250 MPs who voted for Leadsom, indeed at the time I said I probably would not have voted for it. I did however agree that the suspension of MPs procedure needed review to ensure appeals and witnesses could be called.
I also have grave reservations about recall processes, otherwise we end up like California with recalls every 5 minutes to try and force by elections in seats of opponent MPs to try and take their seats
You can twist and turn but you were the one attempting to defend the indefensible
You have been called out across the political divide so a little bit of humility would seem appropriate
The Leadsom amendment was defensible, I defended it and I don't retract anything I said yesterday.
What was utterly indefensible was HYUFD saying "Tories don't care about corruption". That was shocking and repugnant and falls along side sending in tanks, overriding democracy etc in making it seem that HYUFD is a false flag so rotten it is as a thought.
Most Tory MPs voted to not suspend Paterson yesterday, that is fact. You by supporting Leadsom also supported not suspending Paterson despite the fact the Commissioner had found him guilty of breach of standards.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Do you think a majority of Tory MPs will support Paterson on the forthcoming revote?
I think that is a very interesting question. I'm going to guess a huge number of abstainations, but I have no idea.
My guess that a clear majority of them will now vote for suspension and overall the motion will be carried by a very sizeable majority. It’s now surely odds-on that a recall petition will be successful and, like @Sean_F , Paterson cannot be the Tory candidate. In any event I suspect the seat will now be lost.
This has all been an utter disgrace, arguably even more egregious than Jenrick dining with those developers.
Owen seems personally quite popular, which astonishes me since he does a good impression of a stupid, malevolent, and incompetent crook.
I sense he is very "clubbable". Think that's the word anyway.
I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse
Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?
I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse
Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?
Sometimes prising it off, having a good clean up, and pressing it back can work.
Or you could drag the curser over an 'l', click copy, and then use paste whenever you need an L
JRM's posh voice and mannered manners heavily disguise his incompetence.
My working assumption is that all posh people are incompetent, until proven otherwise.
That seems a good starting requirement in dealing with all people nowadays, the difference is posh people are more likely to have been severely over promoted.
The biggest change in the few decades is that instead of promoting posh people despite their lack of skills, we now promote people who have a lack of skills from the "right backgrounds"
Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
She is the child of an Oxford professor and an Oxford fellow, and went to Oxford herself. Almost as posh as Starmer.
Ah, like privately educated political outsider Laura Kussenberg who's family includes: chair/president of Royal College of General Practitioners; a high court judge (among other roles), Govenor General of Nigeria; high commisioner of Mozambique.
So outsider.
But But But... they got their jobs through Merit*. Merit is the New Nobility.
So they have a... Divine Right to Rule.
What is interesting is that people outside the new Upper 10,000 are so ungrateful. They even presume to suggest that some of them are not there on merit.....
*Getting degrees at Oxbridge etc.
I don't worship at the altar of Meritocracy either - it's just another 'ocracy' - but it's not at all clear to me what you are driving at with this Upper 10,000 business. What do you want? The top jobs going to a birth nobility instead? Decided by a random number generator? Going to the worst educated in a kind of Cultural Revolution? Or maybe what you want is for there not to be any top jobs? In which case, the latter, you're a kindred spirit. But I suspect you aren't. All I really pick up is a kind of enigmatic whinge at a type of person. A type who irritates you. So what gives?
The point I am making is an old one - the Revolution came and went and all we get is the New Managerial class.
Further, that the new incumbents are even more endowed with belief in their absolute right to rule than the Old Regime.
I think on the group of lawyers I discussed the problem of shoplifting with a while ago. To their minds, shoplifting shouldn't be prosecuted, since the criminals are such wretched victims themselves. When I pointed out that the shop keepers might not agree, the curling of lips was magnificent... It comes back to another theme, I think...
The modern world has sold Democracy to the masses. It has been made a Cornerstone* of the legitimacy of government. Yet, to those that rule, more and more of the structure of our society is supposed to be beyond the reach of the ballot - to be held safely among the lawyers and... experts.
Yet none dare say, outright, that Democracy has its limits. So we have a structure where democracy is preached by the state, but the state declares that we are bound to object it's dictat on various things *and* we are not allowed to have a say
I recall an interesting conversation I had with a young relative who was studying history. She was appalled when I said that some of those involve in Irish Nationalism had *rejected* democracy as the last argument. She thought I was saying that they were evil. I was trying to explain that they simply had a different belief in the sanctity of the ballot and it's power.
I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse
Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?
I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse
Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?
Simplest remedy is to change your name to Eon. At least W, O, K and E are unaffected.
At this stage you've got to think these continuous hand brake turns that the Johnson government performs are a deliberate part of its communication strategy.
No - they really are just shit at being a government. Oh for the quiet competency of Blair or Cameron. How I miss those days.
I'm starting to think Johnson is a great leader of unrivalled integrity. He knows he's surrounded by weak, amoral yes men and women, so he comes up with a ridiculous, abhorrent ruse and imposes a three line whip to see who has the morals and balls to do the right thing. Then, as it passes (as those with morals and balls are few) does the necessary u-turn to prevent politics from actually going down the sewer.
Can anyone explain the agitating over ‘Plan B’ in several corners of the press? Covid positive tests are falling, and have been falling for almost a fortnight - without any restrictions.
Where has this latest bout of irrational panic come from?
People have gone a bit crazy. I think there's a big element of Boris/Brexit derangement syndrome too. The people agitating for it don't really care about the virus, they just want to oppose the government. There's so many other valid areas to do that on, picking COVID just seems a bit mad, especially as cases are falling.
On Tuesday when we had the delayed deaths number rolled in my colleague pointed out that the lockdown fascists would use it without context to agitate for restrictions, so it came to pass.
One thing that hasn't sunk in is that as good as the current covid vaccines are, relative to other vaccines, they aren't really much good at preventing transmission. Covid is simply too easily spread for the current vaccines to hold it in check. The vaccines are useful for suppressing serious illness but we will likely incur a lot of cases no matter what.
Further restrictions like NPIs would have to be open-ended, because until we get better vaccines or good treatments we will face a flare up of covid each time we relax restrictions. So anyone arguing for mandatory masks, social distancing, or closing certain bits of the economy is effectively asking for those things to be done for a very long time, not a few weeks or months.
Actually, they look pretty good at suppressing transmission. Within the fully vaccinated group, transmission lines die out quite quickly - just not instantly.
It's the unvaxxed that provide the engine room for ongoing transmission.
Leakage from teens to parents is main driver of cases rise in the older, more vaxxed population. Remove that engine room, and cases should drop considerably. The muffling effect of immunity on every virus generation as it tries to move through an unfriendly vaccinated population causes those chains to exponentially decay.
That graph has me wondering what the average age of the parent of a 12-13 year old would be?
Well, 28 to 33 years old than the kid, so 40 to 46.
Comments
The appeal point - there is an appeal built into the process. What you can't do is appeal to Boris Johnson via John Whittingdale. That wouldn't be an improvement.
Bailey: inflation falls to below 2pc by end of forecast period
Hence Cressida Dick. On the upside, woman at the top etc. On the downside, no observable difference to what when before, in terms of policy, behaviour etc.
I also never once said 'Tories don't care about corruption' but the fact is that yesterday most Tory MPs voted to overrule the suspension of Paterson and to overhaul the standards rules.
My support for not allowing another indyref2 for a generation is the standard Tory line at present and I am also damned if I am going to take any lectures on being a Conservative from you given you have even written a thread header on why you are no longer a Conservative!
Inflation can also increase interest rates and mortgage rates which is a traditional way of increasing debt repayment problems.
If you want an echo chamber fine, I won't be party of it
Bailey: committee will focus on mid-term inflation
Accepting one is wrong on occasions is quite good for the soul
Which puts them ahead of various economics punters who are trying to tell us that they know the effects to the nearest 0.01% or something.
We've got to return to normality at some point.
You do know that there has been absolutely no inflation, because housing costs aren't inflation, honest? No, not at all.
'Have you had an erotic dream about Angela Rayner?'
'Er, maybe..?'
'Sorry for wasting your time.'
https://www.bladonmt.com/news/bladon-delivering-hydrogen-future-with-loughborough-university
On Boris, however, the views of PB posters are much more varied. Some really like him; some admire his awesome political skills; some think he's the right chap to be PM in post-Brexit days; some are largely indifferent. Other think he's a liar and a charlatan. But it's inaccurate to say that 90% of posters are anti-Boris.
This seems a big mistake to me.
Think of oscillations when towing a trailer....
#Brexit | Heureux de recevoir à Paris @DavidGHFrost pour relancer un dialogue nécessaire et assurer la mise en œuvre de nos accords
https://twitter.com/CBeaune/status/1456241719561920513?s=20
He is the best in the business
They have given us into the hand of new unhappy lords,
Lords without anger or honour, who dare not carry their swords.
They fight by shuffling papers; they have bright dead alien eyes;
They look at our labour and laughter as a tired man looks at flies.
And the load of their loveless pity is worse than the ancient wrongs,
Their doors are shut in the evening; and they know no songs.
He gazed up at the enormous fat face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the blubbery smirk. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Boris.
Heck the job title alone would give the game away.
So outsider.
*A friend used to work at the BoE research unit - and he spent much of his time writing papers on the effects of various targets and the interactions between them.
Sterling tanking at almost Brexit vote levels.
It's not just us bunch of amateurs who are calling it a bad decision.
Remember the whole plan around the 4-5 Budgets within the election cycle the whole point is to ensure that with an election in May / June 2023 everyone's pay pocket gets a nice little surprise in their April 2023 payslip
If that means you increase taxes (quietly) in 2022 so that you can reduce them again in 2023 it's job done, as few people have long term memories.
So they have a... Divine Right to Rule.
What is interesting is that people outside the new Upper 10,000 are so ungrateful. They even presume to suggest that some of them are not there on merit.....
*Getting degrees at Oxbridge etc.
@SamCoatesSky @OwenPaterson @RandoxOfficial We also asked Lynn Country Foods, the County Down-based sausage & meats manufacturer that pays @OwenPaterson £12,000 a year, why they employ him & whether he remains an advisor. A spokesperson said: “Lynn Country Foods will not be commenting at this time”.
https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1456240926754578435
Feel free to panic if you want, irrationality is good for the market.
This has all been an utter disgrace, arguably even more egregious than Jenrick dining with those developers.
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1456236546294784007
Total embarrassment for Boris Johnson. What was the point?
There are plenty of other things the govt could have used the parliamentary time to legislate for https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-give-mps-new-25377849
NEW: No 10 confirms MPs will get vote on overturning last night's standards amendment - but this time *won't* be whipped. Likely next week.
MPs will get another chance to suspend Owen Paterson but also to dump changes to standards process in order to get cross-party support.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1456238423019245577
So the likely outcome is that Patterson will face suspension, and recall, and lose his lobbying contracts.
Awesome work, everybody...
Edit: before it's mentioned.
https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/294594/mother-average-age-at-childbirth-england-and-wales-by-child-number.jpg
or, er, right at the second peak of that graph...
He is also a duplicitous, solipsistic twat.
Having such an insight means that we are able to see before you do the policy, political (and therefore possible betting) implications of everything he does. You don't. But as it is a site for political betting it doesn't matter too much.
Whereas this masterstroke from no. 10 took days of planning and choreographing, there must have been dozens of meetings going through the issues and arguments, ministers and others were briefed and sent out onto the airwaves to defend their plan; in the runup to yesterday all the weaknesses in their position and the political risks were spelled out by politicians and in the media. Everything they needed to know to decide whether to send the cavalry toward the guns was known before yesterday; nothing has changed overnight except that now there are dead horses all over the field.
No10 didn’t tell Owen Paterson it was performing U-turn
He was in supermarket when he found out he was no longer off the hook in call from BBC journalist, @bbclaurak tells #wato
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1456248699978457095?s=21
Today the Bank of England growth forecast shows average real wages will fall by £883 over the next 2 years.
This sends a clear message to government to get a grip on the cost of living crisis and on inflation.
Their complacency is trapping us in a low growth, high tax economy.
https://twitter.com/rachelreevesmp/status/1456244766623117317?s=21
I have a sticky key in my laptop which won't unstick. It makes typing a hassle. It's the letter "L" - I have to bang it several times hard to make it work and sometimes it doesn't, and it is probably getting worse
Is there a simple remedy or do I have to just get a new laptop?
For reasons we don't yet know Owen Paterson is being thrown to the wolves to avoid / solve something...
Or you could drag the curser over an 'l', click copy, and then use paste whenever you need an L
Further, that the new incumbents are even more endowed with belief in their absolute right to rule than the Old Regime.
I think on the group of lawyers I discussed the problem of shoplifting with a while ago. To their minds, shoplifting shouldn't be prosecuted, since the criminals are such wretched victims themselves. When I pointed out that the shop keepers might not agree, the curling of lips was magnificent... It comes back to another theme, I think...
The modern world has sold Democracy to the masses. It has been made a Cornerstone* of the legitimacy of government. Yet, to those that rule, more and more of the structure of our society is supposed to be beyond the reach of the ballot - to be held safely among the lawyers and... experts.
Yet none dare say, outright, that Democracy has its limits. So we have a structure where democracy is preached by the state, but the state declares that we are bound to object it's dictat on various things *and* we are not allowed to have a say
I recall an interesting conversation I had with a young relative who was studying history. She was appalled when I said that some of those involve in Irish Nationalism had *rejected* democracy as the last argument. She thought I was saying that they were evil. I was trying to explain that they simply had a different belief in the sanctity of the ballot and it's power.
*Ha ha - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornerstone_Speech
Edit to fix cock-up with the quotes
This hypothesis will be confirmed when he sacks from government posts all those who voted for the amendment and elevates Aaron Bell and co to the cabinet (this list provides the new key cabinet ministers - you heard it here first https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2021/11/the-13-conservative-mps-who-voted-against-the-amendment-to-suspend-a-vote-on-paterson.html ).
Will be interesting to see how this changes.....