Well, we now know why the JCVI advice on immunising teens was so at variance with every other country.
For whatever reason, they assumed only a 4.2% attack rate (since the date of this meeting, closer to 40% of those in this age group have been infected than 4.2%), so the number of infections averted by vaccination would be only a few percent of teens (assumed to be 3.6 per 100 teens, with a vaccine efficacy of 85% and attack rate of 4.2%).
The ten-fold higher attack rate (so far) in teens makes the balance (which was actually pretty strongly in benefit of vaccination) literally an order of magnitude stronger. It is impossible to avoid concluding that the JCVI made a big mistake here by taking a very wrong input assumption.
To create top notch stupidity, you need a number of very intelligent people.
When they presented the figures at the daily / weekly briefing re: whether it was a good idea risk wise to vaccinate people or not, I could never understand why they took into account how many people were likely to be infected in the next time period based on the virus prevalence at that time.
If it was to compare vaccinating with AZ then vs Pfizer later given the constraints of supply at the time, then fine, but that was never stated and it seems that it was never the consideration.
Surely it was obvious that everyone would be exposed to this eventually? Why was the calculation time limited?
FPT re: obesity. For all that I am a fan of @NickPalmer , I'm fairly shocked and disappointed about his attitude to food. It's worrying enough that a former MP and minister has never bothered to learn to cook. It's more worrying still that a guy who has devoted much of his life to the food and farming sector (and doing great work therein) eats mostly ready meals. Food in a packet is full of shite.
Interestingly, those countries where food and home cookery is prized and children are taught from an early age to eat proper food – namely France and Italy – have among the lowest rates of obesity in the G20. Coincidence? I think not.
A major issue is that many people who don't cook have retreated into a zone of "Cooking means cooking from scratch. Too complicated and I don't have the time."
Start by cheating. I did. Buy sauce in jars, use cans. Some cooking is better than none. Progress where you can and where you have time.
One thing that is completely left out of the cooking books seems to be cooking in bulk, home freezing etc. The myth that every meal has to be 100% hand made and eaten just after cooking......
Imagine if every kid was taught how to make 10 simple, healthy meals.
Th problem is time - what people need to be taught, as well, is how to do quick cheats for cooking.
I have a go-to recipe for doing risotto in the microwave. A delicious meal in about half an hour.
Anything that has been in the microwave for half an hour will be cinders, certainly not edible.
Er, you don't cook it all in one go, 30 mins is total prep/cooking time. There's a lot of water to be absorbed by the rice too. Believe me, it is delicious!
Why not post the recipe, and let us decide for ourselves?
Cut up a leak and a couple of cloves of garlic, add about 1oz butter and some olive oil, put in a large glass bowl, cover and microwave on high for 5 mins. Meanwhile make 1.5 pints stock with boiling water. Stir 10oz risotto rice into bowl to get it well covered with oil and butter, add stock and black pepper, cook on high uncovered for 10 minutes. Meanwhile slice some mushrooms, eg about 6 or 8, after 10 minutes add to bowl, stir briefly and cook another 6 minutes on high. Stir in some grated parmesan and leave for a few minutes before serving. The recipe is in a cookbook we have (I think bbc good food) but can't find it online. Plenty of variations are possible.
Here's mine. 30 minutes to an amazing fish risotto
STEP 1 Heat oven to 200C/180C fan. Lob a large chunk of butter into an ovenproof dish. Put dish on the hob on a medium heat. Chuck in 1 large slicked leek, stirring regularly, until it begins to tenderise, about 3 minutes. Add cracked salt, black pepper, and then some chopped garlic. 1 clove. Stir for another minute. Add about 150ml white wine. Cook another 2 minutes, simmering the booze away. Then add 300g risotto rice, and cook for another 2 minutes, stirring frequently
STEP 2 Throw in 500ml fish stock and about 150ml milk, bring to the boil and bubble for 5 mins, then sit 300g of chopped undyed smoked haddock on top. Cover with a lid or foil ,and bake in the oven for 18 mins, or until the rice is tender.
STEP 3 Fold in 2 table spoons of crème fraîche and a fistful of rocket leaves (or spinach, or steamed cavolo nero), season with plenty of black pepper, then cover the pan again and leave to rest out of the oven for 3 mins before serving – the steam will soften the greens.. Garnish with fresh flaked parmesan and chopped parsley
Serves a hungry 2 or a less hungry 3, simply increase all amounts for more people
That sounds excellent. Do you think it would work with uncooked mackerel? I've got quite a lot of it in the fridge that we need to use, this seems like a perfect recipe for it.
I would think it will work fine. Though perhaps slice it more thinly (at an angle, maybe) if you are concerned.
Or put the sliced mackarel in with the stock for the last 60-90 seconds to give it a start.
I'd have this recipe with mushrooms in as well (I keep kale and mushrooms nearly done in the freezer for when I need an extra), and have with fresh sweet corn, which I love.
Why couldn't the climate summit have been conducted online?
I thought until yesterday that the added investment in fuel to get there paid off because of the added gravitas of in person meetings, but I can't for the life of me see any difference between Johnson and Modi being there in person vs Queenie and Xi being remote. If we have had 26 of these things that's ample. If we really need annual COPs three out of four can surely be virtual, with an actual one in Olympic or world Cup years.
BJ wouldn't have been able to have his tiny dick tantrum about plastering the event in Union flags and not wanting to see Sturgeon anywhere near it though.
SNP Types really don't like the Union flag do they? And they've managed to turn the Saltire into a flag of division.
Maybe the socialist utopia that would be indy Scotland will have no flag like IMB's The Culture.
You dopn't get the SG perpetrating this sort of thing in a world heritage site:
In the old days, big events such as coronations had a mix of all three flags (UJ, saltire and Lion Rampant) - now it's almost always solely the UJ in anything which the UKG organizes: the OLympics torch, for instance, was solely UJ plus sponsors).
Which gives very odd overtones given a certain element of Central Belt culture (so to speak). I find myself worrying if it's safe to cross the road.
UJ is a flag of unity. Why is SG flying EU flag?
You've completely missed my point. Utterly and completely.
Sorry.
But anyway - Why is SG flying the EU flag?
The Scots voted for Europe.
And as for the UJ, the point I was making is that mass displays of the UJ in the Scottish context, without saltires and LRs to add to the bunting and jolliness, were until very recently only seen on sectarian marches - so the UJ en masse is itself a visceral symbol of utter division, in an objective sense.
So its use en masse by HMG clashes - presumably - with its strong sectarian history. Not a very sensible approach, where a more mixed use of flags would be much more sensible.
Well, we now know why the JCVI advice on immunising teens was so at variance with every other country.
For whatever reason, they assumed only a 4.2% attack rate (since the date of this meeting, closer to 40% of those in this age group have been infected than 4.2%), so the number of infections averted by vaccination would be only a few percent of teens (assumed to be 3.6 per 100 teens, with a vaccine efficacy of 85% and attack rate of 4.2%).
The ten-fold higher attack rate (so far) in teens makes the balance (which was actually pretty strongly in benefit of vaccination) literally an order of magnitude stronger. It is impossible to avoid concluding that the JCVI made a big mistake here by taking a very wrong input assumption.
To create top notch stupidity, you need a number of very intelligent people.
One thing I don't get. Attack rates are quoted but never mention the period of time in question. Or is there some assumption I am missing.
It's very hard to track down. They do say "using rates from wave 2," but under any calculation from prevalence rates, the incidence rates during wave 2 make for a total attack rate far higher than that. If you assume an average of 11.5 days incidence to prevalence (which seems to fit best), then an attack rate of around 11% in secondary aged children solely during the period of school closure comes out.
The only thing I can think of is that the highest error bar on the highest instantaneous prevalence in that group was 4.20% as of 25 December 2020. But that just means that the attack rate over the past 10-14 days as of that specific day would have been 4.2% at highest - and would ignore the rest of the wave. Possibly someone took the wrong figure from a spreadsheet, it wasn't questioned, and just used as an assumption going forwards. But I'd have thought someone would have realised it was a ridiculous figure to use for an assumption.
Well, we now know why the JCVI advice on immunising teens was so at variance with every other country.
For whatever reason, they assumed only a 4.2% attack rate (since the date of this meeting, closer to 40% of those in this age group have been infected than 4.2%), so the number of infections averted by vaccination would be only a few percent of teens (assumed to be 3.6 per 100 teens, with a vaccine efficacy of 85% and attack rate of 4.2%).
The ten-fold higher attack rate (so far) in teens makes the balance (which was actually pretty strongly in benefit of vaccination) literally an order of magnitude stronger. It is impossible to avoid concluding that the JCVI made a big mistake here by taking a very wrong input assumption.
To create top notch stupidity, you need a number of very intelligent people.
When they presented the figures at the daily / weekly briefing re: whether it was a good idea risk wise to vaccinate people or not, I could never understand why they took into account how many people were likely to be infected in the next time period based on the virus prevalence at that time.
If it was to compare vaccinating with AZ then vs Pfizer later given the constraints of supply at the time, then fine, but that was never stated and it seems that it was never the consideration.
Surely it was obvious that everyone would be exposed to this eventually? Why was the calculation time limited?
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
This does look good, but one question, the 'cases' are really the results for samples collated in previse days, a few form the day before, most form 2 days ago, (Sunday in this case) and the rest form older than that.
Question: but what about the number of tests? is that the number of samples taken today? or the number of test results processed today?
I have assumed it was the former, but I don't know does anybody on here?
Well, we now know why the JCVI advice on immunising teens was so at variance with every other country.
For whatever reason, they assumed only a 4.2% attack rate (since the date of this meeting, closer to 40% of those in this age group have been infected than 4.2%), so the number of infections averted by vaccination would be only a few percent of teens (assumed to be 3.6 per 100 teens, with a vaccine efficacy of 85% and attack rate of 4.2%).
The ten-fold higher attack rate (so far) in teens makes the balance (which was actually pretty strongly in benefit of vaccination) literally an order of magnitude stronger. It is impossible to avoid concluding that the JCVI made a big mistake here by taking a very wrong input assumption.
To create top notch stupidity, you need a number of very intelligent people.
When they presented the figures at the daily / weekly briefing re: whether it was a good idea risk wise to vaccinate people or not, I could never understand why they took into account how many people were likely to be infected in the next time period based on the virus prevalence at that time.
If it was to compare vaccinating with AZ then vs Pfizer later given the constraints of supply at the time, then fine, but that was never stated and it seems that it was never the consideration.
Surely it was obvious that everyone would be exposed to this eventually? Why was the calculation time limited?
Because the answer was one that they liked.
The cynic in me would suggest that if vaccines hospitalised a few dozen teens for a day or so, they'd be villified. Whilst if they stepped back (or had someone else make the decision) and the virus hospitalised a couple of thousand teens instead for a week+, well, that's just what happens, isn't it? The papers won't do much on it because "children are less affected."
Well, we now know why the JCVI advice on immunising teens was so at variance with every other country.
For whatever reason, they assumed only a 4.2% attack rate (since the date of this meeting, closer to 40% of those in this age group have been infected than 4.2%), so the number of infections averted by vaccination would be only a few percent of teens (assumed to be 3.6 per 100 teens, with a vaccine efficacy of 85% and attack rate of 4.2%).
The ten-fold higher attack rate (so far) in teens makes the balance (which was actually pretty strongly in benefit of vaccination) literally an order of magnitude stronger. It is impossible to avoid concluding that the JCVI made a big mistake here by taking a very wrong input assumption.
To create top notch stupidity, you need a number of very intelligent people.
One thing I don't get. Attack rates are quoted but never mention the period of time in question. Or is there some assumption I am missing.
It's very hard to track down. They do say "using rates from wave 2," but under any calculation from prevalence rates, the incidence rates during wave 2 make for a total attack rate far higher than that. If you assume an average of 11.5 days incidence to prevalence (which seems to fit best), then an attack rate of around 11% in secondary aged children solely during the period of school closure comes out.
The only thing I can think of is that the highest error bar on the highest instantaneous prevalence in that group was 4.20% as of 25 December 2020. But that just means that the attack rate over the past 10-14 days as of that specific day would have been 4.2% at highest - and would ignore the rest of the wave. Possibly someone took the wrong figure from a spreadsheet, it wasn't questioned, and just used as an assumption going forwards. But I'd have thought someone would have realised it was a ridiculous figure to use for an assumption.
This is exactly what I was thinking. Many thanks for the post.
CDC define: "Incidence proportion is the proportion of an initially disease-free population that develops disease, becomes injured, or dies during a specified (usually limited) period of time. Synonyms include attack rate "
Oh dear, he's been ritually humiliated for months and yesterday's fishing u-turn won't have helped his mood. If he wasn't such a massive arsehole I'd be more sympathetic.
Went past a protest in George Square. Have to say it looked pretty pathetic.
I was surprised to see that Greta Thunberg was singing 'you can shove your climate crisis up your a***'.
Are you sure it wasn’t “you cannae shove your granny off the bus” ?
This passes for high culture in Glasgow.
I applaud the audacity of a Dundonian opining on what passes for high culture.
I do wonder sometimes, in the event of Scottish independence and the eventual* diminishing of the shared enemy, how long it would take for Scotland to descend into civil war.
(God help England too, if London were ever to secede. We'd remember how much the regions hate each other)
*Sure, this might never happen - we're five years on from the Brexit referendum and the EU is still the bogeyman for some Eng Nats.
Och, that’s just idle chit chat over afternoon tea in Scotland. I get that you might be sensitised to this stuff in England what with the political murders and Enemies of the People headlines but a Scottish civil war is not even in my bag of unlikely but possible outcomes. There is one strata of Scottish society that might be capable of political violence but most of them are intending to head to England in the event of Indy if Twitter is anything to go by. Apologies in advance for that!
That's very close, which does reflect the poles, I'm not betting on this, but My gut instinct is that Younkin seems to have momentum/enthusiasm, which may give him the edge.
Its getting almost no attention but there is also the election to the Virginia House of Representatives, that is 55/45 to the democrats at the moment, but presumably could also flip?
O, and also there is a Libertarian in the governors election, https://www.princessblanding.com/ I don't think she will have a big impact, but good to see the party getting on the ballot more regularly now.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
It's expected for people who have been paying the slightest amount of attention, for people who haven't been (Labour) they've been unnecessarily calling for plan b or plan c etc...
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
America is fucked isn't it? Either the GOP dies or America does.
QAnon believers have travelled from all corners of the US to Dallas where they expect JFK Sr (and possibly JFK Jr.) to appear later today......when he will anoint Trump as "king of kings"
A QAnon prophecy says the assassinated president will return and make Trump the president again.
On attack rates, this paper looks to me to say that their model estimates it as high as "54.2% with full children-to-children activity levels" (if it takes several days between infection, test and then isolation).
Oh dear, he's been ritually humiliated for months and yesterday's fishing u-turn won't have helped his mood. If he wasn't such a massive arsehole I'd be more sympathetic.
America is fucked isn't it? Either the GOP dies or America does.
QAnon believers have travelled from all corners of the US to Dallas where they expect JFK Sr (and possibly JFK Jr.) to appear later today......when he will anoint Trump as "king of kings"
A QAnon prophecy says the assassinated president will return and make Trump the president again.
In first year at high school our form teacher was Miss C. In second year it was Mrs T.
Same teacher!
If she had just been Ms C throughout it would have been a lot easier.
We used to say "Yes Miss" to female teachers, regardless of whether they were a Miss or Mrs. No Ms teachers back then in our school.
For male teachers it was "Yes Sir".
So did we, and that was up until the late 1990s.
The idea of calling a teacher by their forename is about as much of an anathema to me as calling my Mum or Dad by theirs.
It was the norm one of my schools though not others, though parents and I had pet names for each other - would have felt very weird to say "Dad" or even "Father" like they do in old books. It's one of those things that vary by the culture and whatever one does seems absolutely unthinkable in other cultures.
I know someone whose father prohibited her throughout her childhood from speaking to him *at all* unless explicitly asked to do so. That is a different level of weirdness and worth worrying about, rather than just a different habit. It beats me why people like that have kids at all.
That's very close, which does reflect the poles, I'm not betting on this, but My gut instinct is that Younkin seems to have momentum/enthusiasm, which may give him the edge.
Its getting almost no attention but there is also the election to the Virginia House of Representatives, that is 55/45 to the democrats at the moment, but presumably could also flip?
O, and also there is a Libertarian in the governors election, https://www.princessblanding.com/ I don't think she will have a big impact, but good to see the party getting on the ballot more regularly now.
Please ignore my last comment, I miss read Liberation for Libertarian, just looking at her website now and she is defiantly not a libertarian, almost the opposite. but good on her for getting on the ballot, and I still not think it will have much impact.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
Um, expected by quite a few, including me.
Yes, I know. Only one datum point but you may have been right. If I recall correctly, you argued that a fall in the positivity rate would mean that higher tests this week would not result in correspondingly higher new infections.
In Iraq, the initial capture and occupation of Basra, entered into with soft hats and the self-congratulatory confidence of an Army that believed it led the world in peacekeeping and counterinsurgency, ended in a humiliating negotiated withdrawal of British forces to the edge of the city, where, pinned down by constant bombardment by the Shia militias who now ran the city, they lost all capacity to exert their influence.
The Americans, distinctly unimpressed at the failure of the British officers, were forced to help Iraqi forces retake the city in 2008’s Charge of the Knights operation, a humiliation for Britain. “This damaged the reputation of British forces with the US and the Iraqis and inflicted major dents in British military self-confidence,” Barry notes. Akam is less stoic, describing it as ”an acute and lasting humiliation to the British Army”, which “will linger and follow the troops halfway around the world to Afghanistan”.
Barry observes: “The US government’s decision to invade Iraq must stand as the worst military decision of the 21st century. It was a military strategic folly on a level equal to that of Napoleon’s 1812 attack on Russia and Hitler’s 1941 attack on the Soviet Union.” The failure, then, was ultimately a political one, of British politicians blindly following their American patrons into unwinnable wars.
Perhaps the Army’s capacity to win the next war, like the British state’s to weather the next crisis, would be better served by generals finding the courage, when necessary, to tell politicians that some things simply can’t, or shouldn’t be done.
However I disagree with the conclusion, Iraq is now free of Saddam and Iraqis elect their own government
Iraq was a catastrophic blunder. Worse than Suez if not Vietnam.
Polluted the body politic and opened the floodgates to mass distrust in government and from there to QAnon etc.
Just the other day I was reading some crypto “guru” explain that one could not trust fiat currency because it was “brought to you by the same people who said there were WMDs in Iraq”.
Saddam would still be in power if there had been no invasion
Why has someone flagged this as Off Topic? HYUFD is making a perfectly sensible point, in response to someone else, and doing it in a polite way
This Off Topic crap is quite annoying. May I humble suggest the moderators ban, for life, anyone that does it
Be better to have a 'dislike' button. Especially for y ...
No, but seriously, it would. Because with the present set up we're only getting half the story and it can be very misleading. Like, if you look at sites (eg Beeb) where there's a thumbs up and a thumbs down, what you often find is that the most liked post is also the most disliked. It's a marmite affair. Such a post is a totally different animal to one that lots of people like and hardly anybody doesn't. Or to one that lots dislike and absolutely nobody likes. It's not as good as the first and much better than the second.
We're not getting this naunce.
Eg, a Big G oneliner update on Sky News might not get a bunch of likes but neither would it (if we had it) get any dislikes. Who could dislike a oneliner update from Big G on Sky News? Cf a post from hyufd about invading Scotland, also no likes but would (if we had it) have the dislike button well exercised. At present both of these posts will look as if they've had exactly the same response from the community and this is wrong. It's wrong.
Or take one of your "antiwoke" diatribes. There, only the people who get aroused in a positive sense by this sort of thing get the chance to express this quickly and easily via a button. Again it leads to the post being mismarked (in this case looking more popular than it is), but also think of the human rights aspect. The people who like your post are getting their voices heard but the rest of us (a far greater number) are not. We're effectively neutered. Have to suffer in silence. Not to hyperbolize but there are mental health and blood pressure ramifications of having to tolerate such a regime.
So that's my request and it's a formal one. Change the "off topic" button to a "dislike" one.
It rarely bothers me if I get likes or not, it certainly would not bother me if I got dislikes, especially from left liberals on here.
I post what I think not to fall into line with others' views (plus there is no need to invade Scotland as Boris will simply refuse an indyref2 and union matters are reserved to Westminster)
You think he can get away with simply refusing indyref2? You could be right but my feeling is there's constitutional drama coming in 22/23.
You have to remember HYUFD claims the divine right of kings operates in the UK (and will, when Charles III succeeds).
Not for manifesto commitments of the elected government
In other words, like the Scottish Government commitment to a referendum.
In Iraq, the initial capture and occupation of Basra, entered into with soft hats and the self-congratulatory confidence of an Army that believed it led the world in peacekeeping and counterinsurgency, ended in a humiliating negotiated withdrawal of British forces to the edge of the city, where, pinned down by constant bombardment by the Shia militias who now ran the city, they lost all capacity to exert their influence.
The Americans, distinctly unimpressed at the failure of the British officers, were forced to help Iraqi forces retake the city in 2008’s Charge of the Knights operation, a humiliation for Britain. “This damaged the reputation of British forces with the US and the Iraqis and inflicted major dents in British military self-confidence,” Barry notes. Akam is less stoic, describing it as ”an acute and lasting humiliation to the British Army”, which “will linger and follow the troops halfway around the world to Afghanistan”.
Barry observes: “The US government’s decision to invade Iraq must stand as the worst military decision of the 21st century. It was a military strategic folly on a level equal to that of Napoleon’s 1812 attack on Russia and Hitler’s 1941 attack on the Soviet Union.” The failure, then, was ultimately a political one, of British politicians blindly following their American patrons into unwinnable wars.
Perhaps the Army’s capacity to win the next war, like the British state’s to weather the next crisis, would be better served by generals finding the courage, when necessary, to tell politicians that some things simply can’t, or shouldn’t be done.
However I disagree with the conclusion, Iraq is now free of Saddam and Iraqis elect their own government
Iraq was a catastrophic blunder. Worse than Suez if not Vietnam.
Polluted the body politic and opened the floodgates to mass distrust in government and from there to QAnon etc.
Just the other day I was reading some crypto “guru” explain that one could not trust fiat currency because it was “brought to you by the same people who said there were WMDs in Iraq”.
Saddam would still be in power if there had been no invasion
Why has someone flagged this as Off Topic? HYUFD is making a perfectly sensible point, in response to someone else, and doing it in a polite way
This Off Topic crap is quite annoying. May I humble suggest the moderators ban, for life, anyone that does it
Be better to have a 'dislike' button. Especially for y ...
No, but seriously, it would. Because with the present set up we're only getting half the story and it can be very misleading. Like, if you look at sites (eg Beeb) where there's a thumbs up and a thumbs down, what you often find is that the most liked post is also the most disliked. It's a marmite affair. Such a post is a totally different animal to one that lots of people like and hardly anybody doesn't. Or to one that lots dislike and absolutely nobody likes. It's not as good as the first and much better than the second.
We're not getting this naunce.
Eg, a Big G oneliner update on Sky News might not get a bunch of likes but neither would it (if we had it) get any dislikes. Who could dislike a oneliner update from Big G on Sky News? Cf a post from hyufd about invading Scotland, also no likes but would (if we had it) have the dislike button well exercised. At present both of these posts will look as if they've had exactly the same response from the community and this is wrong. It's wrong.
Or take one of your "antiwoke" diatribes. There, only the people who get aroused in a positive sense by this sort of thing get the chance to express this quickly and easily via a button. Again it leads to the post being mismarked (in this case looking more popular than it is), but also think of the human rights aspect. The people who like your post are getting their voices heard but the rest of us (a far greater number) are not. We're effectively neutered. Have to suffer in silence. Not to hyperbolize but there are mental health and blood pressure ramifications of having to tolerate such a regime.
So that's my request and it's a formal one. Change the "off topic" button to a "dislike" one.
It rarely bothers me if I get likes or not, it certainly would not bother me if I got dislikes, especially from left liberals on here.
I post what I think not to fall into line with others' views (plus there is no need to invade Scotland as Boris will simply refuse an indyref2 and union matters are reserved to Westminster)
You think he can get away with simply refusing indyref2? You could be right but my feeling is there's constitutional drama coming in 22/23.
You have to remember HYUFD claims the divine right of kings operates in the UK (and will, when Charles III succeeds).
Not for manifesto commitments of the elected government
In other words, like the Scottish Government commitment to a referendum.
Westminster has the final say on the Union under the Scotland Act 1998, Holyrood being a creation of Westminster
I need a government U-turn on compulsory vaccinations for care workers and care home visitors (in force from 11 Nov) to help my Smarkets bet. (Restrictions re-introduced in England during 2021. Currently 1.09 "Yes", 5 "No".)
In first year at high school our form teacher was Miss C. In second year it was Mrs T.
Same teacher!
If she had just been Ms C throughout it would have been a lot easier.
We used to say "Yes Miss" to female teachers, regardless of whether they were a Miss or Mrs. No Ms teachers back then in our school.
For male teachers it was "Yes Sir".
So did we, and that was up until the late 1990s.
The idea of calling a teacher by their forename is about as much of an anathema to me as calling my Mum or Dad by theirs.
My family was, in retrospect, very strange in this respect. As children my siblings and I were taught to use our parents forenames, but to refer to our paternal grandparents by the German words for mother and father.
Oh dear, he's been ritually humiliated for months and yesterday's fishing u-turn won't have helped his mood. If he wasn't such a massive arsehole I'd be more sympathetic.
He calls Morrison a liar, Morrison discloses messages showing he is not a liar, Macron complains about the disclosure of the messages.
The last few months have been going pretty poorly for Macron. I think his attitude on Brexit has been a big factor in the UK seeking to undermine him or at least taking pleasure in it happening.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
And to think that herd immunity got such a bad rap when it was only ever going to be the way out of this .
Just a terminology issue. "Herd immunity" at that early stage actually meant "do nothing and hope it burns itself out", which was quickly shown to be flawed, since the hospitalisation rate would have simply overwhelmed the health services.
America is fucked isn't it? Either the GOP dies or America does.
QAnon believers have travelled from all corners of the US to Dallas where they expect JFK Sr (and possibly JFK Jr.) to appear later today......when he will anoint Trump as "king of kings"
A QAnon prophecy says the assassinated president will return and make Trump the president again.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
And to think that herd immunity got such a bad rap when it was only ever going to be the way out of this .
Just a terminology issue. "Herd immunity" at that early stage actually meant "do nothing and hope it burns itself out", which was quickly shown to be flawed, since the hospitalisation rate would have simply overwhelmed the health services.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
And to think that herd immunity got such a bad rap when it was only ever going to be the way out of this .
It was, but worth remembering it got said bad rap pre-vaccine. I think I have said before, I was reluctantly but firmly pro-lockdown prior to the jabs, and then firmly against it once vulnerable groups had been vaccinated.
Yesterday's empirical data from ONS was the closing case against further lockdowns.
The age-adjusted outcomes for the vaccinated are so incredibly better than the unjabbed that the only argument you could possibly make for lockdown in future would be a risk segmented lockdown based on vaccine status.
Herd immunity is a state. Achieving it without a vaccine would have meant many more deaths than achieving it with a vaccine.
Yes of course. Immunity by natural means and by vaccination (by accelerated means) are part of what herd immunity means. For some reason the public (and the media divvies) were repelled by the term even though it has long been a recognised term.
Oh dear, he's been ritually humiliated for months and yesterday's fishing u-turn won't have helped his mood. If he wasn't such a massive arsehole I'd be more sympathetic.
He calls Morrison a liar, Morrison discloses messages showing he is not a liar, Macron complains about the disclosure of the messages.
The last few months have been going pretty poorly for Macron. I think his attitude on Brexit has been a big factor in the UK seeking to undermine him or at least taking pleasure in it happening.
Emmanuel has been doing a pretty good job undermining himself. Don't think Boris has been exerting himself too much TBH. Remember the old saying - the current French President is always worse than his predecessor. You'd have thought after Hollande that would be for the birds, for Macron seems to be making a late play for maintaining the tradition.
In Iraq, the initial capture and occupation of Basra, entered into with soft hats and the self-congratulatory confidence of an Army that believed it led the world in peacekeeping and counterinsurgency, ended in a humiliating negotiated withdrawal of British forces to the edge of the city, where, pinned down by constant bombardment by the Shia militias who now ran the city, they lost all capacity to exert their influence.
The Americans, distinctly unimpressed at the failure of the British officers, were forced to help Iraqi forces retake the city in 2008’s Charge of the Knights operation, a humiliation for Britain. “This damaged the reputation of British forces with the US and the Iraqis and inflicted major dents in British military self-confidence,” Barry notes. Akam is less stoic, describing it as ”an acute and lasting humiliation to the British Army”, which “will linger and follow the troops halfway around the world to Afghanistan”.
Barry observes: “The US government’s decision to invade Iraq must stand as the worst military decision of the 21st century. It was a military strategic folly on a level equal to that of Napoleon’s 1812 attack on Russia and Hitler’s 1941 attack on the Soviet Union.” The failure, then, was ultimately a political one, of British politicians blindly following their American patrons into unwinnable wars.
Perhaps the Army’s capacity to win the next war, like the British state’s to weather the next crisis, would be better served by generals finding the courage, when necessary, to tell politicians that some things simply can’t, or shouldn’t be done.
However I disagree with the conclusion, Iraq is now free of Saddam and Iraqis elect their own government
Iraq was a catastrophic blunder. Worse than Suez if not Vietnam.
Polluted the body politic and opened the floodgates to mass distrust in government and from there to QAnon etc.
Just the other day I was reading some crypto “guru” explain that one could not trust fiat currency because it was “brought to you by the same people who said there were WMDs in Iraq”.
Saddam would still be in power if there had been no invasion
Why has someone flagged this as Off Topic? HYUFD is making a perfectly sensible point, in response to someone else, and doing it in a polite way
This Off Topic crap is quite annoying. May I humble suggest the moderators ban, for life, anyone that does it
Be better to have a 'dislike' button. Especially for y ...
No, but seriously, it would. Because with the present set up we're only getting half the story and it can be very misleading. Like, if you look at sites (eg Beeb) where there's a thumbs up and a thumbs down, what you often find is that the most liked post is also the most disliked. It's a marmite affair. Such a post is a totally different animal to one that lots of people like and hardly anybody doesn't. Or to one that lots dislike and absolutely nobody likes. It's not as good as the first and much better than the second.
We're not getting this naunce.
Eg, a Big G oneliner update on Sky News might not get a bunch of likes but neither would it (if we had it) get any dislikes. Who could dislike a oneliner update from Big G on Sky News? Cf a post from hyufd about invading Scotland, also no likes but would (if we had it) have the dislike button well exercised. At present both of these posts will look as if they've had exactly the same response from the community and this is wrong. It's wrong.
Or take one of your "antiwoke" diatribes. There, only the people who get aroused in a positive sense by this sort of thing get the chance to express this quickly and easily via a button. Again it leads to the post being mismarked (in this case looking more popular than it is), but also think of the human rights aspect. The people who like your post are getting their voices heard but the rest of us (a far greater number) are not. We're effectively neutered. Have to suffer in silence. Not to hyperbolize but there are mental health and blood pressure ramifications of having to tolerate such a regime.
So that's my request and it's a formal one. Change the "off topic" button to a "dislike" one.
It rarely bothers me if I get likes or not, it certainly would not bother me if I got dislikes, especially from left liberals on here.
I post what I think not to fall into line with others' views (plus there is no need to invade Scotland as Boris will simply refuse an indyref2 and union matters are reserved to Westminster)
You think he can get away with simply refusing indyref2? You could be right but my feeling is there's constitutional drama coming in 22/23.
You have to remember HYUFD claims the divine right of kings operates in the UK (and will, when Charles III succeeds).
Not for manifesto commitments of the elected government
In other words, like the Scottish Government commitment to a referendum.
"Power devolved is power retained", as someone once remarked...
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
Today's positive test number seems absurdly low. I refreshed the page several times as I assumed my phone had cached an ancient page.
Any reason for it? Testing is up, as you say.
P.S. Ignore today's deaths figure, data dumping after yesterday's under-report.
Last week's Wales figure was for 2 days, this week for 1 day, so 2.5k of the fall is artificial. Looking at England only this is just a sensible sized fall, but nice to see given testing is ramping back up.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
Unexpected?
I think I am one of the most optimistic on covid, but I was surprised by the extent of the drop today. The last three or four days have looked like the improvement was running out of steam. Though actually today's figures are a bit of a reversion to trend after quite disappointing figures yesterday. Still, onward and downwards!
Herd immunity is a state. Achieving it without a vaccine would have meant many more deaths than achieving it with a vaccine.
Yes of course. Immunity by natural means and by vaccination (by accelerated means) are part of what herd immunity means. For some reason the public (and the media divvies) were repelled by the term even though it has long been a recognised term.
I think they were repelled by the concept of deliberately choosing mass infection, mass hospitalisation, and mass deaths.
As it was, we nearly blew out the hospitals even with lockdowns. Going for a straight "infect everyone" strategy would have seen them go down early on and the IFR shoot through the roof.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
Today's positive test number seems absurdly low. I refreshed the page several times as I assumed my phone had cached an ancient page.
Any reason for it? Testing is up, as you say.
P.S. Ignore today's deaths figure, data dumping after yesterday's under-report.
Last week's Wales figure was for 2 days, this week for 1 day, so 2.5k of the fall is artificial. Looking at England only this is just a sensible sized fall, but nice to see given testing is ramping back up.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
It's expected for people who have been paying the slightest amount of attention, for people who haven't been (Labour) they've been unnecessarily calling for plan b or plan c etc...
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
I agree it is very likely to continue to fall from here as the very high levels amongst children can't be sustained for long, but I still think it's got a way to go before it drops off too dramatically. The well vaccinated groups have stayed stubbornly around 1% infection rates in the ONS survey and I see no evidence they have hit a tipping point.
My guess is we don't see a sustained fall below 20,000 average daily cases a day this year. But in any case, it is fortunate the government ignored those calling for Plan B 10 days ago when it was becoming obvious we were reaching the peak, and we should be safe from any new restrictions during 2021.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
Today's positive test number seems absurdly low. I refreshed the page several times as I assumed my phone had cached an ancient page.
Any reason for it? Testing is up, as you say.
P.S. Ignore today's deaths figure, data dumping after yesterday's under-report.
COVID is becoming unfashionable among the young
Indeed. I wonder how my lad hasn't yet had it. Maybe he has and, because it was asymptomatic, we just didn't spot it. Dunno.
To the medicos - is there any scientific evidence to the hunch, that since serious COVID is rarer among the young, that asymptomatic COVID is more prevalent in the young?
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
And to think that herd immunity got such a bad rap when it was only ever going to be the way out of this .
It was, but worth remembering it got said bad rap pre-vaccine. I think I have said before, I was reluctantly but firmly pro-lockdown prior to the jabs, and then firmly against it once vulnerable groups had been vaccinated.
Yesterday's empirical data from ONS was the closing case against further lockdowns.
The age-adjusted outcomes for the vaccinated are so incredibly better than the unjabbed that the only argument you could possibly make for lockdown in future would be a risk segmented lockdown based on vaccine status.
We differ slightly on this. I was horrified by the original lockdown from the point that the NHS was no longer under extreme pressure. I questioned the very legality of it (and still do). I came onboard only when the vaccines were discovered because this implied that measures would be short-term only. We took too long to unwind from lockdown 3.
I remain very troubled by the authoritarian measures which this and future governments now have in their toolkit.
Oh dear, he's been ritually humiliated for months and yesterday's fishing u-turn won't have helped his mood. If he wasn't such a massive arsehole I'd be more sympathetic.
He calls Morrison a liar, Morrison discloses messages showing he is not a liar, Macron complains about the disclosure of the messages.
The last few months have been going pretty poorly for Macron. I think his attitude on Brexit has been a big factor in the UK seeking to undermine him or at least taking pleasure in it happening.
Emmanuel has been doing a pretty good job undermining himself. Don't think Boris has been exerting himself too much TBH. Remember the old saying - the current French President is always worse than his predecessor. You'd have thought after Hollande that would be for the birds, for Macron seems to be making a late play for maintaining the tradition.
Herd immunity is a state. Achieving it without a vaccine would have meant many more deaths than achieving it with a vaccine.
Yes of course. Immunity by natural means and by vaccination (by accelerated means) are part of what herd immunity means. For some reason the public (and the media divvies) were repelled by the term even though it has long been a recognised term.
I think they were repelled by the concept of deliberately choosing mass infection, mass hospitalisation, and mass deaths.
As it was, we nearly blew out the hospitals even with lockdowns. Going for a straight "infect everyone" strategy would have seen them go down early on and the IFR shoot through the roof.
Yep. Short term constraints on liberty to prevent this from happening were the only legitimate rationale in my mind.
I'm sure this a typo, they meant 'French' instead 'US/American'.
Royal Marines have forced US troops to surrender just days into a training exercise after eliminating almost the entire unit.
The British commandos “dominated” US forces during a training exercise in California, using a new battle structure.
The Telegraph understands the US forces asked for a “reset” half way into the five-day war fighting exercise, having suffered significant simulated casualties.
At one point in the battle, the commandos’ “kill board”, an intelligence assessment of the level of damage inflicted upon enemy equipment and units, had a tick against almost every American asset, indicating it had been deemed destroyed or rendered inoperable.
The other thing about current UK case numbers (which I haven't seen remarked on anywhere, yet) is that they seem to be much higher as a proportion of populations in rural areas than in the cities. The contrast is quite striking:
I assume it's related to the fact that most of the positive cases relate to under 18s. This implies that cities have generally lower proportions of under 18s than rural areas, which is, as far as I can see, completely wrong. I think it's possible that (somehow) cities have fewer teenagers than rural areas on average, but the difference probably isn't big enough to explain the entire trend. It's pretty well established that cities have lower levels of vaccinations than average, so the only other explanation I can think of is that the cities have gone through the final wave faster and are now significantly and noticeably ahead of the game in terms of pacing the decline.
What else even is there? Children in cities are more likely to refuse testing? Inner city schools aren't reporting positive cases?
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
It's expected for people who have been paying the slightest amount of attention, for people who haven't been (Labour) they've been unnecessarily calling for plan b or plan c etc...
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
It's interesting to talk to the people who aren't as obsessive about the detail as we are. The mood seems still to be that infections are rising.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
Unexpected?
I think I am one of the most optimistic on covid, but I was surprised by the extent of the drop today. The last three or four days have looked like the improvement was running out of steam. Though actually today's figures are a bit of a reversion to trend after quite disappointing figures yesterday. Still, onward and downwards!
We should be careful. New infections don't matter. Most are the result of testing people who are not poorly (e.g. schoolchildren). If we congratulate lower infection figures we set ourselves up for a fall when they rise again. Covid isn't going anywhere, as I keep saying.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
Today's positive test number seems absurdly low. I refreshed the page several times as I assumed my phone had cached an ancient page.
Any reason for it? Testing is up, as you say.
P.S. Ignore today's deaths figure, data dumping after yesterday's under-report.
Last week's Wales figure was for 2 days, this week for 1 day, so 2.5k of the fall is artificial. Looking at England only this is just a sensible sized fall, but nice to see given testing is ramping back up.
That makes more sense – thanks. Great spot.
If you want to use Date of Report figures you always have to check the by nation breakdown as both NI and Wales have frequent blank reporting days.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
It's expected for people who have been paying the slightest amount of attention, for people who haven't been (Labour) they've been unnecessarily calling for plan b or plan c etc...
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
It's interesting to talk to the people who aren't as obsessive about the detail as we are. The mood seems still to be that infections are rising.
Yep. I agree. And the Opposition, the shite scaremongering media and also the upper echelons of the NHS, and associated bodies, are to blame for this.
And ISAGE Who should be consigned to the ice-age. Geddit?
The other thing about current UK case numbers (which I haven't seen remarked on anywhere, yet) is that they seem to be much higher as a proportion of populations in rural areas than in the cities. The contrast is quite striking:
I assume it's related to the fact that most of the positive cases relate to under 18s. This implies that cities have generally lower proportions of under 18s than rural areas, which is, as far as I can see, completely wrong. I think it's possible that (somehow) cities have fewer teenagers than rural areas on average, but the difference probably isn't big enough to explain the entire trend. It's pretty well established that cities have lower levels of vaccinations than average, so the only other explanation I can think of is that the cities have gone through the final wave faster and are now significantly and noticeably ahead of the game in terms of pacing the decline.
What else even is there? Children in cities are more likely to refuse testing? Inner city schools aren't reporting positive cases?
Surely it's a case of the cities having had more infections earlier in the pandemic.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
Unexpected?
I think I am one of the most optimistic on covid, but I was surprised by the extent of the drop today. The last three or four days have looked like the improvement was running out of steam. Though actually today's figures are a bit of a reversion to trend after quite disappointing figures yesterday. Still, onward and downwards!
We should be careful. New infections don't matter. Most are the result of testing people who are not poorly (e.g. schoolchildren). If we congratulate lower infection figures we set ourselves up for a fall when they rise again. Covid isn't going anywhere, as I keep saying.
There are quite a few infections in the older groups.
The other thing about current UK case numbers (which I haven't seen remarked on anywhere, yet) is that they seem to be much higher as a proportion of populations in rural areas than in the cities. The contrast is quite striking:
I assume it's related to the fact that most of the positive cases relate to under 18s. This implies that cities have generally lower proportions of under 18s than rural areas, which is, as far as I can see, completely wrong. I think it's possible that (somehow) cities have fewer teenagers than rural areas on average, but the difference probably isn't big enough to explain the entire trend. It's pretty well established that cities have lower levels of vaccinations than average, so the only other explanation I can think of is that the cities have gone through the final wave faster and are now significantly and noticeably ahead of the game in terms of pacing the decline.
What else even is there? Children in cities are more likely to refuse testing? Inner city schools aren't reporting positive cases?
I assume it is the London effect repeated across the country.
London currently has amongst the lowest case rates despite it have a packed public transport system. It has barely been tickled by the summer wave.
This is because it got smashed in the winter wave. While other parts of the country were having more and more restrictions piled up London was reopening the theatres heading into December.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
It's expected for people who have been paying the slightest amount of attention, for people who haven't been (Labour) they've been unnecessarily calling for plan b or plan c etc...
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
It's interesting to talk to the people who aren't as obsessive about the detail as we are. The mood seems still to be that infections are rising.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
It's expected for people who have been paying the slightest amount of attention, for people who haven't been (Labour) they've been unnecessarily calling for plan b or plan c etc...
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
It's interesting to talk to the people who aren't as obsessive about the detail as we are. The mood seems still to be that infections are rising.
The numbers are "off message".
Yes, definite lack of news items on the current fall in cases.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
It's expected for people who have been paying the slightest amount of attention, for people who haven't been (Labour) they've been unnecessarily calling for plan b or plan c etc...
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
It's interesting to talk to the people who aren't as obsessive about the detail as we are. The mood seems still to be that infections are rising.
Like the effect of the cases themselves, public attention lags. It's one reason good leaders make a genuine difference, as they need to be able to respond before the public pushes for something, or to hold firm when it is clear things are already moving.
New infections 17% down vs last Tuesday - with higher tests conducted now as well. Unexpected, but great news.
It's totally expected. Every single child in the country has now had Delta in the past few months, and there's now nowhere else for the virus to go.
It's expected for people who have been paying the slightest amount of attention, for people who haven't been (Labour) they've been unnecessarily calling for plan b or plan c etc...
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
It's interesting to talk to the people who aren't as obsessive about the detail as we are. The mood seems still to be that infections are rising.
That's because the ONS figure leads the reporting but no one contextualises it to point out it is effectively lagged by two weeks.
We actually had the reverse a year ago with the news reporting cases were falling even as the clear start of the Autumn second wave was forming in the case figures.
FPT re: obesity. For all that I am a fan of @NickPalmer , I'm fairly shocked and disappointed about his attitude to food. It's worrying enough that a former MP and minister has never bothered to learn to cook. It's more worrying still that a guy who has devoted much of his life to the food and farming sector (and doing great work therein) eats mostly ready meals. Food in a packet is full of shite.
Interestingly, those countries where food and home cookery is prized and children are taught from an early age to eat proper food – namely France and Italy – have among the lowest rates of obesity in the G20. Coincidence? I think not.
A major issue is that many people who don't cook have retreated into a zone of "Cooking means cooking from scratch. Too complicated and I don't have the time."
Start by cheating. I did. Buy sauce in jars, use cans. Some cooking is better than none. Progress where you can and where you have time.
One thing that is completely left out of the cooking books seems to be cooking in bulk, home freezing etc. The myth that every meal has to be 100% hand made and eaten just after cooking......
Imagine if every kid was taught how to make 10 simple, healthy meals.
Th problem is time - what people need to be taught, as well, is how to do quick cheats for cooking.
I have a go-to recipe for doing risotto in the microwave. A delicious meal in about half an hour.
Anything that has been in the microwave for half an hour will be cinders, certainly not edible.
Er, you don't cook it all in one go, 30 mins is total prep/cooking time. There's a lot of water to be absorbed by the rice too. Believe me, it is delicious!
Why not post the recipe, and let us decide for ourselves?
Cut up a leak and a couple of cloves of garlic, add about 1oz butter and some olive oil, put in a large glass bowl, cover and microwave on high for 5 mins. Meanwhile make 1.5 pints stock with boiling water. Stir 10oz risotto rice into bowl to get it well covered with oil and butter, add stock and black pepper, cook on high uncovered for 10 minutes. Meanwhile slice some mushrooms, eg about 6 or 8, after 10 minutes add to bowl, stir briefly and cook another 6 minutes on high. Stir in some grated parmesan and leave for a few minutes before serving. The recipe is in a cookbook we have (I think bbc good food) but can't find it online. Plenty of variations are possible.
Put oven on at 425/220 While oven is heating, take chicken breast out of packaging, put on baking sheet, drizzle olive oil over, salt and pepper. (less than 1 minute) Take store-bought precut and peeled veg (carrot, parsnips, broccoli, whatever) out of packaging, put on another baking sheet. Drizzle with oil, salt and pepper, toss. (1 minute) Once oven is hot, put both baking sheets in. Take out when done (20+minutes) Eat
Comments
If it was to compare vaccinating with AZ then vs Pfizer later given the constraints of supply at the time, then fine, but that was never stated and it seems that it was never the consideration.
Surely it was obvious that everyone would be exposed to this eventually? Why was the calculation time limited?
Laters
Or put the sliced mackarel in with the stock for the last 60-90 seconds to give it a start.
I'd have this recipe with mushrooms in as well (I keep kale and mushrooms nearly done in the freezer for when I need an extra), and have with fresh sweet corn, which I love.
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
43m
Wonder if Labour will drop the "worst death toll in Europe" line yet
The only thing I can think of is that the highest error bar on the highest instantaneous prevalence in that group was 4.20% as of 25 December 2020. But that just means that the attack rate over the past 10-14 days as of that specific day would have been 4.2% at highest - and would ignore the rest of the wave. Possibly someone took the wrong figure from a spreadsheet, it wasn't questioned, and just used as an assumption going forwards. But I'd have thought someone would have realised it was a ridiculous figure to use for an assumption.
McAuliffe 1.88 / 2.08
Youngkin 1.93 / 2.24
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.187090973
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/macron-leaves-cop26-summit-in-glasgow-a-day-before-other-leaders/ar-AAQey7o?ocid=ob-tw-enau-613
Question: but what about the number of tests? is that the number of samples taken today? or the number of test results processed today?
I have assumed it was the former, but I don't know does anybody on here?
CDC define: "Incidence proportion is the proportion of an initially disease-free population that develops disease, becomes injured, or dies during a specified (usually limited) period of time. Synonyms include attack rate "
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1455584831719493637
Greece reports 6,700 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record
It's a goat song.
Tragedy came to English in the late 14C from Old French tragedie, which is from the Latin tragedia. This is derived from the Greek τραγῳδία.
τραγῳδία is a compound of τράγος (trágos meaning “goat”) and ἀοιδός (aoidós meaning “singer”). Which seems a little strange, to say the least.
The connection may come from satyric drama, which later developed into tragedy, where the actors wore goat skins to represent satyrs.
Surprisingly, this isn't anything to do with the etymology of satire, though the meaning of satire in Latin was influenced by confusion over this.
Satire comes from Latin satira, which had been satura, which was from the phrase lanx satura which means "full dish", referring to a fruit bowl..
Its getting almost no attention but there is also the election to the Virginia House of Representatives, that is 55/45 to the democrats at the moment, but presumably could also flip?
O, and also there is a Libertarian in the governors election, https://www.princessblanding.com/ I don't think she will have a big impact, but good to see the party getting on the ballot more regularly now.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3618077#Comment_3618077
(me from 11 days ago)
If anything, I was overly pessimistic.
The virus is simply running out of viable hosts through prior infection for kids and booster jabs among older people with waning immunity. We could get a pretty big drop in infections later this month because we'll get to true herd immunity even for normal levels of socialising within indoor settings. It needs something like 90% of people to have previously been infected, have had two jabs for under 40s or three for over 40s. The government needs to expand the booster programme to anyone who wants it, the artificial limitations on it are completely counter productive.
QAnon believers have travelled from all corners of the US to Dallas where they expect JFK Sr (and possibly JFK Jr.) to appear later today......when he will anoint Trump as "king of kings"
A QAnon prophecy says the assassinated president will return and make Trump the president again.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgd85a/qanon-dallas-jfk-trump
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.25.21263542v1.full.pdf
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/02/french-trust-australia-shattered-leak-macron-text-message/
He calls Morrison a liar, Morrison discloses messages showing he is not a liar, Macron complains about the disclosure of the messages.
I know someone whose father prohibited her throughout her childhood from speaking to him *at all* unless explicitly asked to do so. That is a different level of weirdness and worth worrying about, rather than just a different habit. It beats me why people like that have kids at all.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1455588265390653442?s=20
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1455508998061428739?s=20
Any reason for it? Testing is up, as you say.
P.S. Ignore today's deaths figure, data dumping after yesterday's under-report.
Brilliant.
Yesterday's empirical data from ONS was the closing case against further lockdowns.
The age-adjusted outcomes for the vaccinated are so incredibly better than the unjabbed that the only argument you could possibly make for lockdown in future would be a risk segmented lockdown based on vaccine status.
Fair play.
Though actually today's figures are a bit of a reversion to trend after quite disappointing figures yesterday.
Still, onward and downwards!
As it was, we nearly blew out the hospitals even with lockdowns. Going for a straight "infect everyone" strategy would have seen them go down early on and the IFR shoot through the roof.
My guess is we don't see a sustained fall below 20,000 average daily cases a day this year. But in any case, it is fortunate the government ignored those calling for Plan B 10 days ago when it was becoming obvious we were reaching the peak, and we should be safe from any new restrictions during 2021.
I remain very troubled by the authoritarian measures which this and future governments now have in their toolkit.
BREAKING: The UK Lords have blocked a push by the UK government to suspend the state pension triple lock.
Lords voted 220 to 178 to keep the earnings link on the state pension triple lock.
The Bill now goes back to the Commons.
https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1455594594171858953
Royal Marines have forced US troops to surrender just days into a training exercise after eliminating almost the entire unit.
The British commandos “dominated” US forces during a training exercise in California, using a new battle structure.
The Telegraph understands the US forces asked for a “reset” half way into the five-day war fighting exercise, having suffered significant simulated casualties.
At one point in the battle, the commandos’ “kill board”, an intelligence assessment of the level of damage inflicted upon enemy equipment and units, had a tick against almost every American asset, indicating it had been deemed destroyed or rendered inoperable.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/02/royal-marines-force-us-troops-surrender-just-hours-training/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1635867261
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases
I assume it's related to the fact that most of the positive cases relate to under 18s. This implies that cities have generally lower proportions of under 18s than rural areas, which is, as far as I can see, completely wrong. I think it's possible that (somehow) cities have fewer teenagers than rural areas on average, but the difference probably isn't big enough to explain the entire trend. It's pretty well established that cities have lower levels of vaccinations than average, so the only other explanation I can think of is that the cities have gone through the final wave faster and are now significantly and noticeably ahead of the game in terms of pacing the decline.
What else even is there? Children in cities are more likely to refuse testing? Inner city schools aren't reporting positive cases?
And ISAGE Who should be consigned to the ice-age. Geddit?
London currently has amongst the lowest case rates despite it have a packed public transport system. It has barely been tickled by the summer wave.
This is because it got smashed in the winter wave. While other parts of the country were having more and more restrictions piled up London was reopening the theatres heading into December.
We actually had the reverse a year ago with the news reporting cases were falling even as the clear start of the Autumn second wave was forming in the case figures.
While oven is heating, take chicken breast out of packaging, put on baking sheet, drizzle olive oil over, salt and pepper. (less than 1 minute)
Take store-bought precut and peeled veg (carrot, parsnips, broccoli, whatever) out of packaging, put on another baking sheet. Drizzle with oil, salt and pepper, toss. (1 minute)
Once oven is hot, put both baking sheets in.
Take out when done (20+minutes)
Eat
Total time, 25 minutes. Active time <2 minutes