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Vaccine refuseniks are like WW2 blitz blackout breakers – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 25 in General
imageVaccine refuseniks are like WW2 blitz blackout breakers – politicalbetting.com

In 1940/41 when the German Bombing of British cities was at its height one of the big rules that everybody had to follow was the blackout. Any little light from a building, it was thought, could help enemy pilots to work out whether they were above populated areas where they could cause maximum damage.

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    Warden Hodges says 'First'
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,399
    Agreed. Essentially everyone is at risk from the most reckless stranger they come close to. With double vaccinations and a booster, the risk is relatively small, but it shouldn't be a risk that people in hospitals are exposed to.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834
    Good thread header - good analogy.

    Time for HMG to get tough with the vaccine refusers imo.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,716
    Taking vaccines makes sense for almost everyone, but it is clear that vaccines do not prevent the community-level spread of COVID-19. So perhaps forced social distancing, masks and remote-where-possible should also be part of the New Blitz, and since we can't stop the spread, perhaps the New Blitz will last forever. Farewell to universities and pubs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,752
    Totally agree Mike. Once again we come back to consequences for poor decisions. It's time to let people who have refused the vaccine die at home rather than block up the NHS for those people who were responsible and did the right thing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.
  • 100% agree
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446

    The polls at the equivalent stage of Ed Miliband’s time as LotO. Can someone run them through Electoral Calculus please, and share with us what the result of the 2015 Election is going to be?


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    MaxPB said:

    Totally agree Mike. Once again we come back to consequences for poor decisions. It's time to let people who have refused the vaccine die at home rather than block up the NHS for those people who were responsible and did the right thing.

    I think it was @Andy_Cooke who said they "should have the courage of their convictions and die at home".
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,023
    edited October 25
    Vaccine refuseniks are much worse than blackout breakers. The blackout was of questionable effectiveness, especially on nights with full moons or full cloud cover, caused serious inconvenience and had bad side effects, including a huge increase in traffic accidents and crime at night.

    Vaccines are extremely effective, it is reasonably convenient to be jabbed and serious side effects are extremely rare.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,411
    MaxPB said:

    Totally agree Mike. Once again we come back to consequences for poor decisions. It's time to let people who have refused the vaccine die at home rather than block up the NHS for those people who were responsible and did the right thing.

    Did you ever consider the clergy as a calling?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,646
    isam said:


    The polls at the equivalent stage of Ed Miliband’s time as LotO. Can someone run them through Electoral Calculus please, and share with us what the result of the 2015 Election is going to be?


    For swing-back to occur I am of the opinion swing away needs to occur first.

    Anyway what's your post got to do with vaccine refuseniks? Mike's header is correct, and fair play to Javid.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,964
    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    Wasn't that just the London blitz
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446
    edited October 25

    isam said:


    The polls at the equivalent stage of Ed Miliband’s time as LotO. Can someone run them through Electoral Calculus please, and share with us what the result of the 2015 Election is going to be?


    For swing-back to occur I am of the opinion swing away needs to occur first.

    Anyway what's your post got to do with vaccine refuseniks? Mike's header is correct, and fair play to Javid.
    Sorry I haven’t posted for a few days, and didn’t realise we could only comment on the thread header now
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,681
    On betting, I've just put money on Youngkin for the VA Governors' race on Smarkets at just over 2/1. Couple of reasons why I took the plunge:

    1. There is a third poll in a row showing McAuliffe and Younkin tied (Emerson after Monmouth and Trafalgar, although I have discounted a Republican-leaning poll with the same result)

    2. Joe Biden's falling popularity, which will have an impact;

    3. Early voting numbers in the Democrat-leaning Northern suburbs don't look to be great, according to some of the Twitter feeds;

    4. More anecdotally, left and right-leaning websites have both suggested there has been a proliferation of Youngkin signs in some of the bluer areas. The number of signs were a fairly decent indicator of Trump's support in 2016 at least;

    5. The Republicans seem more enthused and the Loudoun School District issues - especially around the alleged rape of a girl by a transgender support - seems to be crystallising support.

    As usual, DYOR. But as we have had three polls in a row showing the race tied, I'm not sure why McAuliffe is at the odds he is.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Totally agree Mike. Once again we come back to consequences for poor decisions. It's time to let people who have refused the vaccine die at home rather than block up the NHS for those people who were responsible and did the right thing.

    I think it was @Andy_Cooke who said they "should have the courage of their convictions and die at home".
    My wife and I will try when the time comes !!!!!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,646
    edited October 25
    isam said:

    isam said:


    The polls at the equivalent stage of Ed Miliband’s time as LotO. Can someone run them through Electoral Calculus please, and share with us what the result of the 2015 Election is going to be?


    For swing-back to occur I am of the opinion swing away needs to occur first.

    Anyway what's your post got to do with vaccine refuseniks? Mike's header is correct, and fair play to Javid.
    Sorry I haven’t posted for a few days, and didn’t realise we could only comment on the thread header now
    I thought you came in a little early. I was waiting for the second page before commenting on the complete absence these days of budget purdah. Failure to adhere cost Hugh Dalton his job you know.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,411
    Fishing said:

    Vaccine refuseniks are much worse than blackout breakers. The blackout was of questionable effectiveness, especially on nights with full moons or full cloud cover, caused serious inconvenience and had bad side effects, including a huge increase in traffic accidents and crime at night.

    Vaccines are extremely effective, it is reasonably convenient to be jabbed and serious side effects are extremely rare.

    The blackout was partially about folk feeling they were "doing their bit."
    Can't be arsed, I'm a free thinker was surprisingly uncommon.
  • d_dd_d Posts: 10
    I am sorry to inform you, but vaccinated people can spread Delta as well.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    I was chatting at the weekend to a single vaxxed medical colleague. He had covid 19 last autumn, and his first jab in February, which provoked 3 months of malaise and fatigue. He has decided against further doses.

    He is not some Piers Corbyn style nutcase, and very pro-vaccination. He does however have very strong antibodies as a result of his infection.

    What would be the point of forcing him to either resign or have a further vaccine? That is the reality.

    Personally, I think anyone with documented antibodies from infection should be vaccine exempt.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,716
    Ignoring the people who choose not to take them, vaccines push society down to some R number, but individual behaviour pushes it back up. It seems odd not to include individual behaviours in the new Blitz spirit when reducing unnecessary in-person interaction can reduce COVID-19 transmission strongly. But I think the answer is that criticising a mostly-foolish minority is popular, while criticising most people for risky behaviour like working in offices and going to pubs is unpopular.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 477
    edited October 25
    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144
    The difference is that in 1940 the government didn't make an absolute pig's ear of the messaging.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465

    The difference is that in 1940 the government didn't make an absolute pig's ear of the messaging.

    The PM wasn't a clown
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,023
    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    Vaccine refuseniks are much worse than blackout breakers. The blackout was of questionable effectiveness, especially on nights with full moons or full cloud cover, caused serious inconvenience and had bad side effects, including a huge increase in traffic accidents and crime at night.

    Vaccines are extremely effective, it is reasonably convenient to be jabbed and serious side effects are extremely rare.

    The blackout was partially about folk feeling they were "doing their bit."
    Can't be arsed, I'm a free thinker was surprisingly uncommon.
    No doubt the heavy fines and rigorous enforcement also helped, where there is no real penalty for refusing vaccination, unless you want to travel or go to some events.

    Obviously, none of us, other than JackW, were around at that time. But I've read that it lowered morale as much as it raised it, as many people got sick of it very quickly and realised its side effects, which is why the government reduced its severity pretty quickly.

    And of course the Luftwaffe learned pretty quickly to navigate up the Thames to find London.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144
    Scott_xP said:

    The difference is that in 1940 the government didn't make an absolute pig's ear of the messaging.

    The PM wasn't a clown
    That too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    Wasn't that just the London blitz
    Wikipeadia lists the total number of civilian deaths in the UK due to military action in WW2 as 67,200, so less than half of those killed by Covid.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#Total_deaths_by_country
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Totally agree Mike. Once again we come back to consequences for poor decisions. It's time to let people who have refused the vaccine die at home rather than block up the NHS for those people who were responsible and did the right thing.

    I think it was @Andy_Cooke who said they "should have the courage of their convictions and die at home".
    At least one flaw in this approach is that it wont be long before someone is forced to die at home who actually is double vaxxed but there was a cockup with the paperwork and the IT and so...

    Even if one supports the idea philosophically/ethically etc etc practically it would only take one kid to be in that situation on front page of the Daily Beast for any minister to abandon it.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,580
    edited October 25
    MrEd said:

    On betting, I've just put money on Youngkin for the VA Governors' race on Smarkets at just over 2/1. Couple of reasons why I took the plunge:

    1. There is a third poll in a row showing McAuliffe and Younkin tied (Emerson after Monmouth and Trafalgar, although I have discounted a Republican-leaning poll with the same result)

    2. Joe Biden's falling popularity, which will have an impact;

    3. Early voting numbers in the Democrat-leaning Northern suburbs don't look to be great, according to some of the Twitter feeds;

    4. More anecdotally, left and right-leaning websites have both suggested there has been a proliferation of Youngkin signs in some of the bluer areas. The number of signs were a fairly decent indicator of Trump's support in 2016 at least;

    5. The Republicans seem more enthused and the Loudoun School District issues - especially around the alleged rape of a girl by a transgender support - seems to be crystallising support.

    As usual, DYOR. But as we have had three polls in a row showing the race tied, I'm not sure why McAuliffe is at the odds he is.

    Trump lost Virginia in 2016 though.

    But overall, I agree that VA-Gov will be a nail-biter. Also the Republicans have a decent chance of flipping the Virginia lower house (House of Delegates). If they did, they would still be short of a trifecta though as the Democrats control the state Senate and that's not up until next year.

    The two other big races here in the NE are more cut and dried and positive for the Democrats though. Phil Murphy remains comfortably ahead in the NJ-Gov race.

    And as for the NYC mayoral race, well I'd be amazed if Eric Adams does not pulverize Curtis Sliwa (yes, that Curtis Sliwa). Sliwa's only selling point is that as he founded the Guardian Angles vigilante group back in the 70s he's tough on law and order. Unfortunately, so is Eric Adams, who's an ex-cop and has been endorsed by the NYPD union, and Adams, while he has some baggage of his own, has nothing like that of Sliwa. Most NYCers think Sliwa is a bit on the crazy side, and not in the way that appealed to blue-collar voters like Trump.

    Interestingly, although Sliwa seems to have enough cash to run plenty of TV ads, possibly more than Adams at the moment, he only seems to have two: one where he comforts a homeless man who interrupted an street appearance of his, and one where he seems to have found the half-a-dozen or so "Democrats for Sliwa". All in all it's a very odd campaign. Adams won the Democratic primary in part by spending heavily on cheap, non-English language local media, especially Chinese-language. I wonder if he's doing the same for the general.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,239
    edited October 25
    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    Vaccine refuseniks are much worse than blackout breakers. The blackout was of questionable effectiveness, especially on nights with full moons or full cloud cover, caused serious inconvenience and had bad side effects, including a huge increase in traffic accidents and crime at night.

    Vaccines are extremely effective, it is reasonably convenient to be jabbed and serious side effects are extremely rare.

    The blackout was partially about folk feeling they were "doing their bit."
    Can't be arsed, I'm a free thinker was surprisingly uncommon.
    No doubt the heavy fines and rigorous enforcement also helped, where there is no real penalty for refusing vaccination, unless you want to travel or go to some events.

    Obviously, none of us, other than JackW, were around at that time. But I've read that it lowered morale as much as it raised it, as many people got sick of it very quickly and realised its side effects, which is why the government reduced its severity pretty quickly.

    And of course the Luftwaffe learned pretty quickly to navigate up the Thames to find London.
    And firing v bombs over our home near Manchester and killing several of our neighbours while my Mother cradled me under a steel table
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478


    FPT

    I know it’s only a couple of days data, although the slowdown in the increase has been coming, but it’s striking to see that none of the major iSAGE zealots have even mentioned the lower case numbers. Not a peep. Instead they seem to be complaining about allowing kids to get immunity from infection, because of all the harm it’s doing. I’m lost - is long Covid and severe Covid a big issue among kids? Generally they only experience mild symptoms. My feeling, and it’s only that, is that the iSAGE crowd are wilfully exaggerating the level of issues seen with Covid in children.
    I’m sure there have been some bad cases, and I recall the death of a teenager a couple of weeks back. But are we really seeing anything other than kids getting a few days of sickness then back to normal?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,411
    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    Vaccine refuseniks are much worse than blackout breakers. The blackout was of questionable effectiveness, especially on nights with full moons or full cloud cover, caused serious inconvenience and had bad side effects, including a huge increase in traffic accidents and crime at night.

    Vaccines are extremely effective, it is reasonably convenient to be jabbed and serious side effects are extremely rare.

    The blackout was partially about folk feeling they were "doing their bit."
    Can't be arsed, I'm a free thinker was surprisingly uncommon.
    No doubt the heavy fines and rigorous enforcement also helped, where there is no real penalty for refusing vaccination, unless you want to travel or go to some events.

    Obviously, none of us, other than JackW, were around at that time. But I've read that it lowered morale as much as it raised it, as many people got sick of it very quickly and realised its side effects, which is why the government reduced its severity pretty quickly.

    And of course the Luftwaffe learned pretty quickly to navigate up the Thames to find London.
    Indeed. An armed visit to your house concentrates minds.
    Plenty died in accidents too. Remember hearing about a guy whose train stopped at a signal, he thought it was the station, and fell to his death off a bridge.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834
    DeClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
    Excess deaths since March 2020 = circa 130k according to the Economist's figures.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,273
    EPG said:

    Ignoring the people who choose not to take them, vaccines push society down to some R number, but individual behaviour pushes it back up. It seems odd not to include individual behaviours in the new Blitz spirit when reducing unnecessary in-person interaction can reduce COVID-19 transmission strongly. But I think the answer is that criticising a mostly-foolish minority is popular, while criticising most people for risky behaviour like working in offices and going to pubs is unpopular.

    That's the benefit of the vaccine. It allows us to live normal lives again.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    Yep we had our for free from Boots on Monday, no queues, very efficient.

    Hat tip and thanks to @CarlottaVance for pointing out the Boots service last week.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852
    Its noticeable that Keir Starmer wants to put restrictions on the vaccinated but to pander to NHS anti-vaxxers.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478

    DeClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
    Excess deaths since March 2020 = circa 130k according to the Economist's figures.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
    Thing is there is no way we will ever know how many died because of Covid. Excess deaths is reasonable but is also susceptible to the base number variation. Death certification is not exact, and the within 28 days of a positive test is an approximation that gives quick numbers. Besides, I suspect there are a lot of deaths from other things that are exacerbated by Covid, but won’t be ascribed to it, such as depression leading to suicide, undiagnosed cancers and so on.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,411
    edited October 25

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    Tried today. First visit to Hexham in nearly two years.
    Boots was shut. As was most of Hexham. Plenty bewildered frightfully middle-class families.
    This wasn't the half-term luxury they've come to expect.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852
    Don't know if this is nationwide but in Morrisons they are selling pork tenderloin at £6/kg and pork shoulder at £2.70/kg.

    I thought we were told that there was going to be a shortage of pork :wink:

    Though I have always been baffled at the low cost of pork compared to beef.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 477
    Farooq said:

    DeClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
    "Did you the the Williams's house? Got flattened in that surprise Luftwaffe raid last night. All eight of 'em dead!"
    "Yeah, but how many of them would have survived the next year anyway?"
    No one lives forever, in fact we all die, so in theory, if everyone in the world was tested for for Covid 19 every 4 weeks, every time any person dies whom tested positive, they will be included in the figures for Covid 19 deaths.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    Annoyingly I’m 49, so a year young for the boosters and stuck in limbo with the flu shot (asthma) as our surgery has none at the moment.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    It'll be interesting to know how many flu vaccinations are given this year compared to previous.

    I would guess at quite a bit higher.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,273

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    Yep we had our for free from Boots on Monday, no queues, very efficient.

    Hat tip and thanks to @CarlottaVance for pointing out the Boots service last week.
    We each received a text from our GP after we had booked with Boots. So multiple options. Nurse or pharmacist - your choice.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Absolutely spot on Mike. I wouldn't want to be treated by anyone who believes in nonsense about vaccines rather than evidence. They should go and find a job more suited to their loony beliefs. For anyone with adverse reactions to either vaccine please go to https://yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/
  • Another few hundred went on a Labour poll lead today by me
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852

    The difference is that in 1940 the government didn't make an absolute pig's ear of the messaging.

    Messaging doesn't matter when decisions are wrong.

    And there have been two fundamental wrong decisions:

    Lack of border control
    No general health and fitness campaign
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,411

    Don't know if this is nationwide but in Morrisons they are selling pork tenderloin at £6/kg and pork shoulder at £2.70/kg.

    I thought we were told that there was going to be a shortage of pork :wink:

    Though I have always been baffled at the low cost of pork compared to beef.

    Easy to rear. Easy to breed. Multiple births. Reach maturity sooner. Eat anything.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    It'll be interesting to know how many flu vaccinations are given this year compared to previous.

    I would guess at quite a bit higher.
    Although this year they are really worried they have missed the target as there was almost no circulating virus to base this years's vax on in Southern hemisphere.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478

    Another few hundred went on a Labour poll lead today by me

    I hope you are only betting what you can afford. (This is not an opinion on your bet btw, which I think you will win).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754
    Do you have the right to stop the government injecting something into your body?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,273

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    It'll be interesting to know how many flu vaccinations are given this year compared to previous.

    I would guess at quite a bit higher.
    Last year was the first time either of us had received one. Certainly didn't want to miss out this year.

    The vaccine covers four strains, so fingers crossed it has the right variant in the mix.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478

    The difference is that in 1940 the government didn't make an absolute pig's ear of the messaging.

    Messaging doesn't matter when decisions are wrong.

    And there have been two fundamental wrong decisions:

    Lack of border control
    No general health and fitness campaign
    I thought the inspiring weight loss of our dear PM over the last year would be enough for anyone...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    Annoyingly I’m 49, so a year young for the boosters and stuck in limbo with the flu shot (asthma) as our surgery has none at the moment.
    Go to Boots and pay (£15)?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    I'm looking the correction - 'so far' - do you think the blitz still has the potential to overhaul covid death till, Mike? I know Brexit is going to bring us WW3 and all, but I think in that case I'd still restart the count rather than adding to WW2.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,894
    It’s a good analogy. I know that coz I drew it myself several months ago, as I am sure did others

    I wonder how long refuseniks will hold out anyway?

    The US has just announced it will allow not foreign travellers - if they have proof of the jab. All countries and airlines will do this.

    If you refuse the vax you are kissing goodbye to any international travel ever again. Just for starters. That’s an enormous sacrifice

    I suspect the hardcore 10% refusers will eventually be whittled down to 1 or 2% of absolute nutters
  • Another few hundred went on a Labour poll lead today by me

    I hope you are only betting what you can afford. (This is not an opinion on your bet btw, which I think you will win).
    Only what I can afford indeed
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481

    Its noticeable that Keir Starmer wants to put restrictions on the vaccinated but to pander to NHS anti-vaxxers.

    Ouch.
  • Jonathan said:

    Do you have the right to stop the government injecting something into your body?

    I am sure you do have the right, as does the government to take public health measures to protect the rest of us from the deniers
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,894
    DeClare said:

    Farooq said:

    DeClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
    "Did you the the Williams's house? Got flattened in that surprise Luftwaffe raid last night. All eight of 'em dead!"
    "Yeah, but how many of them would have survived the next year anyway?"
    No one lives forever, in fact we all die, so in theory, if everyone in the world was tested for for Covid 19 every 4 weeks, every time any person dies whom tested positive, they will be included in the figures for Covid 19 deaths.
    Wait, what. We all DIE????
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    Annoyingly I’m 49, so a year young for the boosters and stuck in limbo with the flu shot (asthma) as our surgery has none at the moment.
    Go to Boots and pay (£15)?
    Probably will fairly soon, although I think my surgery will get there. I pay enough for prescriptions as it is, so I think I ‘deserve’ the odd thing for free.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    DeClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
    Excess deaths since March 2020 = circa 130k according to the Economist's figures.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
    Thing is there is no way we will ever know how many died because of Covid. Excess deaths is reasonable but is also susceptible to the base number variation. Death certification is not exact, and the within 28 days of a positive test is an approximation that gives quick numbers. Besides, I suspect there are a lot of deaths from other things that are exacerbated by Covid, but won’t be ascribed to it, such as depression leading to suicide, undiagnosed cancers and so on.
    There has been basically no year-on-year increase of suicides, looking at the quarterly data from the ONS. The only notable anomaly is 2020Q2 when coroners were shut for part of the time and there was a consequent reduction in registered suicides.

    The numbers went up quite a bit from 2017 to 2018 and have remained higher, but there's no Covid-era spike.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,411
    Jonathan said:

    Do you have the right to stop the government injecting something into your body?

    Babies don't.
    Oh. And it isn't the Government. JRM didn't stab me.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Jonathan said:

    Do you have the right to stop the government injecting something into your body?

    It's not injecting something into your body. It's offering you the chance to get something which is safe and effective. If you don't believ this then the health and care system is definitely not the job for you. Similarly if airlines don't want you on their planes absolutely fine with me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    Leon said:

    It’s a good analogy. I know that coz I drew it myself several months ago, as I am sure did others

    I wonder how long refuseniks will hold out anyway?

    The US has just announced it will allow not foreign travellers - if they have proof of the jab. All countries and airlines will do this.

    If you refuse the vax you are kissing goodbye to any international travel ever again. Just for starters. That’s an enormous sacrifice

    I suspect the hardcore 10% refusers will eventually be whittled down to 1 or 2% of absolute nutters

    :lol: Ms Yoga Mummy will suddenly find she can, after some reflection, pollute her own ecosystem with the vax once the fortnight meditating on the beach at sunset in Goa is not allowed.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Scott_xP said:

    The difference is that in 1940 the government didn't make an absolute pig's ear of the messaging.

    The PM wasn't a clown
    That too.
    Month 3: Black Out, bombs about.
    Month 8: Open up to help out
    Month 9: Shutter that window
    Month 10: Open all the windows and let light out and celebrate the end of all this.
    Month 11: Black out now or lose Xmas

    Month New Year: Open up you bastards or the economy is fecked.
    Month 5: We may need to black out again unless you are really careful with light.
    Month 6: Some people are taking the piss with windows
    Month 9: No Tory MP has blacked windows but you SHOULD or the NHS gets it.
    Month 10: Black out even though it is not a legal requirement or lose xmas


    Hands. Face. Master race.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834
    Leon said:

    DeClare said:

    Farooq said:

    DeClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
    "Did you the the Williams's house? Got flattened in that surprise Luftwaffe raid last night. All eight of 'em dead!"
    "Yeah, but how many of them would have survived the next year anyway?"
    No one lives forever, in fact we all die, so in theory, if everyone in the world was tested for for Covid 19 every 4 weeks, every time any person dies whom tested positive, they will be included in the figures for Covid 19 deaths.
    Wait, what. We all DIE????
    You heard it first on PB!
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 124
    DeClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
    ONS has been recording deaths of Covid as well as deaths from Covid for a year now, and typically only 1 in 7 or so of deaths with Covid have not been from Covid. Whereas for flu it's the other way round, only around 1 in 7 of deaths with flu are actually caused by the flu.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    Annoyingly I’m 49, so a year young for the boosters and stuck in limbo with the flu shot (asthma) as our surgery has none at the moment.
    Go to Boots and pay (£15)?
    Probably will fairly soon, although I think my surgery will get there. I pay enough for prescriptions as it is, so I think I ‘deserve’ the odd thing for free.

    Yes fair enough. Might be worth checking Boots though... I have a suspicion they will administer free if you qualify on health grounds for an NHS flu jab.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,894

    Leon said:

    It’s a good analogy. I know that coz I drew it myself several months ago, as I am sure did others

    I wonder how long refuseniks will hold out anyway?

    The US has just announced it will allow not foreign travellers - if they have proof of the jab. All countries and airlines will do this.

    If you refuse the vax you are kissing goodbye to any international travel ever again. Just for starters. That’s an enormous sacrifice

    I suspect the hardcore 10% refusers will eventually be whittled down to 1 or 2% of absolute nutters

    :lol: Ms Yoga Mummy will suddenly find she can, after some reflection, pollute her own ecosystem with the vax once the fortnight meditating on the beach at sunset in Goa is not allowed.
    I actually feel a bit sorry for some refuseniks who sincerely believe the jabs are dangerous and evil. I have a close friend of that mindset. She’s done her research and just come up with the wrong answer, or at least one which is going to cause her enormous hassle if she persists

    I can sense her resistance crumbling but I also sense her pain as it happens. Sad, in a way
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    Selebian said:

    I'm looking the correction - 'so far' - do you think the blitz still has the potential to overhaul covid death till, Mike? I know Brexit is going to bring us WW3 and all, but I think in that case I'd still restart the count rather than adding to WW2.

    Of course, in being a smart arse about someone else's turn of phrase, it's always helpful if one doesn't also balls up one's own comment... :hushed:
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Cookie said:

    This is hyperbole.
    I made the decision to get vaccinated. But I'm not going to poor scorn on anyone who doesn't. Certainly not for 'not understanding science' - almost no-one, on either side of the argument, has read the relevant studies. At best, we have read second or third hand accounts.
    I don't fully understand what the motivations of antivaxxers are, but I doubt they are callousness.
    Let's not try to demonise people who have reached different conclusions. Not least because it doesn't tend to work.

    You shouldn't poor scorn, but it does beggar belief.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754

    Jonathan said:

    Do you have the right to stop the government injecting something into your body?

    I am sure you do have the right, as does the government to take public health measures to protect the rest of us from the deniers
    You have to be careful with this sort of thing. You may think this is ok, but you might inadvertently set a precedent for future governments.

    The idea that you will be denied liberties unless you take government approved medicine for the greater good sounds like a bad scifi plot.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    FPT

    I was thinking about this today. It’s the Budget this week. If we want to incentive vaccine take up, why not do it through the tax system? Give double vaxxed people a tax break, and refuseniks a tax penalty. It would be fairly easy to do: essentially everyone gets a tax penalty unless they prove their vaccination (or medical exemption) status via the NHS app, or some such, within 60 days, in which case the tax penalty becomes a modest tax break.

    This removes the horrible admin burden at the point of delivery to venues etc. And it removes the element of compulsion.

    I’m of the view vaxports are unnecessary, and I shudder somewhat at the paper-checking that would be required. But I could live with tax incentives, if we have to take some action to grind down the stubborn 10% who won’t get vaccinated.

    Better than vax and/or mask mandates certainly - both of which are horribly illiberal.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    edited October 25
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Do you have the right to stop the government injecting something into your body?

    I am sure you do have the right, as does the government to take public health measures to protect the rest of us from the deniers
    You have to be careful with this sort of thing. You may think this is ok, but you might inadvertently set a precedent for future governments.

    The idea that you will be denied liberties unless you take government approved medicine for the greater good sounds like a bad scifi plot.
    What absolute rubbish you talk sometimes.
    It sounds like an excellent sci-fi plot.

    EDIT: I'm currently reading Brave New World
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852
    dixiedean said:

    Don't know if this is nationwide but in Morrisons they are selling pork tenderloin at £6/kg and pork shoulder at £2.70/kg.

    I thought we were told that there was going to be a shortage of pork :wink:

    Though I have always been baffled at the low cost of pork compared to beef.

    Easy to rear. Easy to breed. Multiple births. Reach maturity sooner. Eat anything.
    That makes sense.

    Now I may be alone in this but I think pork is fundamentally more tasty than beef.

    Yet beef holds the psychological top spot - is that anything more than some folk memories of ye olde roast beef of merry olde england.
  • d_dd_d Posts: 10
    edited October 25
    EPG said:

    Taking vaccines makes sense for almost everyone, but it is clear that vaccines do not prevent the community-level spread of COVID-19. So perhaps forced social distancing, masks and remote-where-possible should also be part of the New Blitz, and since we can't stop the spread, perhaps the New Blitz will last forever. Farewell to universities and pubs.

    may be there is no need to stop the spread then? You know, beliefs or initial hypotheses should be questioned and not taken on faith.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a good analogy. I know that coz I drew it myself several months ago, as I am sure did others

    I wonder how long refuseniks will hold out anyway?

    The US has just announced it will allow not foreign travellers - if they have proof of the jab. All countries and airlines will do this.

    If you refuse the vax you are kissing goodbye to any international travel ever again. Just for starters. That’s an enormous sacrifice

    I suspect the hardcore 10% refusers will eventually be whittled down to 1 or 2% of absolute nutters

    :lol: Ms Yoga Mummy will suddenly find she can, after some reflection, pollute her own ecosystem with the vax once the fortnight meditating on the beach at sunset in Goa is not allowed.
    I actually feel a bit sorry for some refuseniks who sincerely believe the jabs are dangerous and evil. I have a close friend of that mindset. She’s done her research and just come up with the wrong answer, or at least one which is going to cause her enormous hassle if she persists

    I can sense her resistance crumbling but I also sense her pain as it happens. Sad, in a way
    Yeh, trouble is at end of the day it is a process of weighing up risk of covid vs risk of vax/the whole thing is a plot and so on. Seems a no brainer to many of us, but other people's minds work a different way.

    This plague (probably like all the others in history) has thrown up some intense moral questions.


  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    d_d said:

    You know, beliefs or initial hypotheses should be questioned and not taken on faith.

    So you say..
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478
    Cookie said:

    This is hyperbole.
    I made the decision to get vaccinated. But I'm not going to poor scorn on anyone who doesn't. Certainly not for 'not understanding science' - almost no-one, on either side of the argument, has read the relevant studies. At best, we have read second or third hand accounts.
    I don't fully understand what the motivations of antivaxxers are, but I doubt they are callousness.
    Let's not try to demonise people who have reached different conclusions. Not least because it doesn't tend to work.

    I agree with your last sentence, but for me I think anyone who isn’t taking up the vaccine is foolish in the extreme. It’s also not about understanding the science at the level of technical publications. Few are able to do that. I’m lucky that my science career means I can read the source papers, as indeed I did throughout my leukaemia treatment. I think for some there is a nexus of distrust of the powers that be, whether that is the police, the government, the council etc, and so they just don’t trust what they are told. But why they trust random shit on the internet is beyond me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924



    FPT

    I know it’s only a couple of days data, although the slowdown in the increase has been coming, but it’s striking to see that none of the major iSAGE zealots have even mentioned the lower case numbers. Not a peep. Instead they seem to be complaining about allowing kids to get immunity from infection, because of all the harm it’s doing. I’m lost - is long Covid and severe Covid a big issue among kids? Generally they only experience mild symptoms. My feeling, and it’s only that, is that the iSAGE crowd are wilfully exaggerating the level of issues seen with Covid in children.
    I’m sure there have been some bad cases, and I recall the death of a teenager a couple of weeks back. But are we really seeing anything other than kids getting a few days of sickness then back to normal?

    I replied to this on the PT (I got caught out by the new thread too). UCL found no evidence that Long Covid in children was on the scale advertised by iSage et al.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58410584
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    edited October 25
    From your link:-

    "This new interim injunction will ban activities that obstruct motorways and major A roads across the entire country."
    https://news.sky.com/story/insulate-britain-nationwide-injunction-granted-against-climate-activists-blocking-roads-12444607

    This, even if the temporary injunction is (a) universally respected, and (b) made permanent, still seems to leave any number of targets which are neither motorways nor "major" A-roads.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a good analogy. I know that coz I drew it myself several months ago, as I am sure did others

    I wonder how long refuseniks will hold out anyway?

    The US has just announced it will allow not foreign travellers - if they have proof of the jab. All countries and airlines will do this.

    If you refuse the vax you are kissing goodbye to any international travel ever again. Just for starters. That’s an enormous sacrifice

    I suspect the hardcore 10% refusers will eventually be whittled down to 1 or 2% of absolute nutters

    :lol: Ms Yoga Mummy will suddenly find she can, after some reflection, pollute her own ecosystem with the vax once the fortnight meditating on the beach at sunset in Goa is not allowed.
    I actually feel a bit sorry for some refuseniks who sincerely believe the jabs are dangerous and evil. I have a close friend of that mindset. She’s done her research and just come up with the wrong answer, or at least one which is going to cause her enormous hassle if she persists

    I can sense her resistance crumbling but I also sense her pain as it happens. Sad, in a way
    It can be hard to admit you’ve got something wrong. But it’s vital for intellectual growth. Not sure our political system helps that though.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,852

    We both got our flu jabs this evening.

    Annoyingly, my arm aches but my wife's doesn't.

    I guess that Boots make a bit of profit from each shot.

    If you are over 50, go and get one!

    It'll be interesting to know how many flu vaccinations are given this year compared to previous.

    I would guess at quite a bit higher.
    Although this year they are really worried they have missed the target as there was almost no circulating virus to base this years's vax on in Southern hemisphere.
    If those who have got the flu vaccine for the first time do get flu then they're not going to be impressed with flu vaccinations.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Do you have the right to stop the government injecting something into your body?

    I am sure you do have the right, as does the government to take public health measures to protect the rest of us from the deniers
    You have to be careful with this sort of thing. You may think this is ok, but you might inadvertently set a precedent for future governments.

    The idea that you will be denied liberties unless you take government approved medicine for the greater good sounds like a bad scifi plot.
    Seems 79% back HMG on NHS staff having vaccinations

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1452666219971153923?t=fni2GSL0ds1a3vCX5y0C1A&s=19
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,411
    edited October 25
    Farooq said:

    DeClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    About 42,000 Brits were killed in the Blitz, and around 140,000 have been killed by Covid.

    Time to update the header.

    140000 may have passed away within 28 days of testing positive for Covid 19, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they would all still be alive had Covid 19 never existed.
    Excess deaths since March 2020 = circa 130k according to the Economist's figures.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
    Thing is there is no way we will ever know how many died because of Covid. Excess deaths is reasonable but is also susceptible to the base number variation. Death certification is not exact, and the within 28 days of a positive test is an approximation that gives quick numbers. Besides, I suspect there are a lot of deaths from other things that are exacerbated by Covid, but won’t be ascribed to it, such as depression leading to suicide, undiagnosed cancers and so on.
    There has been basically no year-on-year increase of suicides, looking at the quarterly data from the ONS. The only notable anomaly is 2020Q2 when coroners were shut for part of the time and there was a consequent reduction in registered suicides.

    The numbers went up quite a bit from 2017 to 2018 and have remained higher, but there's no Covid-era spike.
    You are right.
    Current well informed speculation is that many of the conditions of the previously mentally unwell didn't have too rough a time. Their well-honed coping mechanisms kicked in. And many of their fears about the world being scary and dangerous were vindicated.
    It is the legions of newly benighted and untreated who are being stowed like a tsunami.
    And they have no coping mechanisms. Nor qualified support.
    No research, as yet, to definitively prove this of course.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    OT FPT re non-recyclable plastic wrapping. Our local Co-op has recently introduced a recycling bin for what it calls soft plastic, which would seem to cover at least some of this.
  • From your link:-

    "This new interim injunction will ban activities that obstruct motorways and major A roads across the entire country."
    https://news.sky.com/story/insulate-britain-nationwide-injunction-granted-against-climate-activists-blocking-roads-12444607

    This, even if the temporary injunction is (a) universally respected, and (b) made permanent, still seems to leave any number of targets which are neither motorways nor "major" A-roads.
    It would be impossible to cover all UK roads though
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    d_d said:

    I am sorry to inform you, but vaccinated people can spread Delta as well.

    Sigh.

    This is another example of the Step Function Fallacy.

    Yes, vaccinated people still shed viral matter. But a lot less. Indeed, total viral shedding is probably an order of magnitude lower for the vaccinated.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,834

    OT FPT re non-recyclable plastic wrapping. Our local Co-op has recently introduced a recycling bin for what it calls soft plastic, which would seem to cover at least some of this.

    A recycling bin for non-recyclable plastic??
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,399

    Another few hundred went on a Labour poll lead today by me

    I hope you are only betting what you can afford. (This is not an opinion on your bet btw, which I think you will win).
    Agreed about being careful - we don't know your circs, but nothing's certain except death (hello De Clare) and taxes (hello Rishi). I think Sunak has done enough groundwork on his budget to make it go down quite well. The trend for the Tories is downwards, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce in the polls next weekend which then gradually subsides again.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701

    FPT

    I was thinking about this today. It’s the Budget this week. If we want to incentive vaccine take up, why not do it through the tax system? Give double vaxxed people a tax break, and refuseniks a tax penalty. It would be fairly easy to do: essentially everyone gets a tax penalty unless they prove their vaccination (or medical exemption) status via the NHS app, or some such, within 60 days, in which case the tax penalty becomes a modest tax break.

    This removes the horrible admin burden at the point of delivery to venues etc. And it removes the element of compulsion.

    I’m of the view vaxports are unnecessary, and I shudder somewhat at the paper-checking that would be required. But I could live with tax incentives, if we have to take some action to grind down the stubborn 10% who won’t get vaccinated.

    Better than vax and/or mask mandates certainly - both of which are horribly illiberal.

    Best to give the lollipop at the place of injection rather than rely on people being able to run the NHS app on their non-existent smartphones. That used to be the system but I expect they now worry about rotting children's teeth.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Do you have the right to stop the government injecting something into your body?

    I am sure you do have the right, as does the government to take public health measures to protect the rest of us from the deniers
    You have to be careful with this sort of thing. You may think this is ok, but you might inadvertently set a precedent for future governments.

    The idea that you will be denied liberties unless you take government approved medicine for the greater good sounds like a bad scifi plot.
    Seems 79% back HMG on NHS staff having vaccinations

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1452666219971153923?t=fni2GSL0ds1a3vCX5y0C1A&s=19
    I don’t know, I wouldn’t be comfortable forcing someone to inject something.
This discussion has been closed.