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Could Britain’s COVID rate be impacted by the actual jab that was used? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 25 in General
imageCould Britain’s COVID rate be impacted by the actual jab that was used? – politicalbetting.com

At the weekend I got my “booster” jab and unlike my earlier two vaccinations, it was the Pfizer one and not Astrazeneca which was given to tens of millions of Brits like me in the first waves of the vaccination programme.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,964
    Test
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    Covid cases should slump in November by around 85 per cent to just 5,000 per day by Christmas even without Plan B restrictions, according to modelling seen by the Government.

    Ministers are understood to be refraining from introducing restrictions including compulsory facemasks, advice to work from home and domestic vaccine passports after seeing projections which show infections declining rapidly within the next few weeks.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10126769/Covid-cases-SLUMP-just-5-000-day-Christmas-WITHOUT-Plan-B-crackdown.html
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,743
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    There are quite a few childhood vaccines where you need three doses - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/downloads/child/0-18yrs-child-combined-schedule.pdf

    So it's not that uncommon.

    Plus, of course, our first vaccines were developed quickly, and will be further improved as time goes on. And some things - like tetanus - we get boosters every few years.

    My guess is that we'll have annual boosters for a year or two, and then it'll get integrated with the flu shot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,928
    edited October 25
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    Likely to be annual shots in the autumn, same as with influenza vaccines at the moment. One pharma company will likely find a way to roll up the two shots into one jab.

    The big danger is a mutation into a disease that renders the current vaccines useless, but thankfully there’s a very small window between a vaccine-resistant virus and an easily-transmissible one.

    Edit: Robert beat me to the same point. Need another coffee.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,940
    I thought the data showed that while initially Pfizer was much better at stopping infection by month 6 it was pretty much of a wash with AZ? Which would suggest any advantage our continental friends may have initially enjoyed might start waning quite soon - especially as most stuck to the less effective 3 week dosing interval - let’s hope they get boosting promptly and the UK picks up the pace on its booster program.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Just imagine if Ursula von der Leyen had been as competent as Boris Johnson. The EU might have had a complete disaster on their hands.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,323
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: entertaining race, though I prefer normal start times.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: entertaining race, though I prefer normal start times.

    Certainly wasn’t dull. If nothing else the comedy non-overtakes involving Alonso were worth watching.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504

    I thought the data showed that while initially Pfizer was much better at stopping infection by month 6 it was pretty much of a wash with AZ? Which would suggest any advantage our continental friends may have initially enjoyed might start waning quite soon - especially as most stuck to the less effective 3 week dosing interval - let’s hope they get boosting promptly and the UK picks up the pace on its booster program.

    Yes, that was what I thought too.

    Unfortunately, the NHS has now released data that shows that AZ efficacy drops quicker than Pfizer. The FT has a chart of it here: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100728623546373/photo/1
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    edited October 25
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    Likely to be annual shots in the autumn, same as with influenza vaccines at the moment. One pharma company will likely find a way to roll up the two shots into one jab.

    The big danger is a mutation into a disease that renders the current vaccines useless, but thankfully there’s a very small window between a vaccine-resistant virus and an easily-transmissible one.

    Edit: Robert beat me to the same point. Need another coffee.
    As I understand it (and I am not a infectious diseases expert, although I play one on PB), CV19 has a relatively small number of potential mutations - if it changes, the spike protein loses the ability to bind to the ACE2 receptor in our lungs.

    It's notable that Delta is not *different* to earlier strains in terms of our immune system's ability to recognise it - it's just that people with Delta shed a lot more viral matter. Simply, our immune system is just a little slower to respond to 1,000x more viral material.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    edited October 25
    Hello everyone. Excellent day's cricket yesterday. Not quite sure what to expect of this afternoon; Afghanistan vs Scotland.

    Commiserations to India. The 'good' Pakistan turned up.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    There are quite a few childhood vaccines where you need three doses - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/downloads/child/0-18yrs-child-combined-schedule.pdf

    So it's not that uncommon.

    Plus, of course, our first vaccines were developed quickly, and will be further improved as time goes on. And some things - like tetanus - we get boosters every few years.

    My guess is that we'll have annual boosters for a year or two, and then it'll get integrated with the flu shot.
    Does anyone actually get their tetanus booster?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,323
    Mr. Doethur, yeah, that was a bit silly.

    Verstappen almost got screwed by bad traffic. Good result for the title race, I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    There are quite a few childhood vaccines where you need three doses - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/downloads/child/0-18yrs-child-combined-schedule.pdf

    So it's not that uncommon.

    Plus, of course, our first vaccines were developed quickly, and will be further improved as time goes on. And some things - like tetanus - we get boosters every few years.

    My guess is that we'll have annual boosters for a year or two, and then it'll get integrated with the flu shot.
    Does anyone actually get their tetanus booster?
    They're very insistent here in LA. (And when I was younger, I would get into all kinds of scrapes, so was also given it fairly regularly.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,746
    Thank-you for a thoughtful piece, Mike.

    Should be a good conversation today.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    rcs1000 said:

    I thought the data showed that while initially Pfizer was much better at stopping infection by month 6 it was pretty much of a wash with AZ? Which would suggest any advantage our continental friends may have initially enjoyed might start waning quite soon - especially as most stuck to the less effective 3 week dosing interval - let’s hope they get boosting promptly and the UK picks up the pace on its booster program.

    Yes, that was what I thought too.

    Unfortunately, the NHS has now released data that shows that AZ efficacy drops quicker than Pfizer. The FT has a chart of it here: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100728623546373/photo/1
    Doesn’t the security d chart show that with an 8+ week interval they are about the same?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,743
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    Likely to be annual shots in the autumn, same as with influenza vaccines at the moment. One pharma company will likely find a way to roll up the two shots into one jab.

    The big danger is a mutation into a disease that renders the current vaccines useless, but thankfully there’s a very small window between a vaccine-resistant virus and an easily-transmissible one.

    Edit: Robert beat me to the same point. Need another coffee.
    I think the real thing in our favour is that coronas are quite slowly evolving. For all the talk of alpha, beta and delta, they have not been sufficiently different to the first strain to render the vaccines ineffective, merely with a lower efficacy against transmission. And we are now 24 months on.

    The 4th dose will be tweaked against delta. And I suspect that will be that for the crisis phase of this virus. And we can then all focus on how another Gang of 8 member has this week been publicly leaning into aliens disclosure (Adam Shiff), roughly the same time as the Nasa Administrator expresses his “personal opinion” that to understand UAP we need to consider the context of “billions of suns in billions of galaxies” and “perhaps more than one universe”.

    For what it’s worth, Lue Elizondo, ex head of the Pentagon UAP programme also said this week that “the time for dropping breadcrumbs is over and for people to be more blunt”. He also then said this:
    https://twitter.com/iamdrvenkman/status/1451644308118020100?s=21

    We are approaching the crescendo of either the most bizarre bipartisan psyops conspiracy ever undertaken by the US establishment, or the disclosure of something else entirely.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    There are quite a few childhood vaccines where you need three doses - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/downloads/child/0-18yrs-child-combined-schedule.pdf

    So it's not that uncommon.

    Plus, of course, our first vaccines were developed quickly, and will be further improved as time goes on. And some things - like tetanus - we get boosters every few years.

    My guess is that we'll have annual boosters for a year or two, and then it'll get integrated with the flu shot.
    Does anyone actually get their tetanus booster?
    I was bitten by a dog a few years ago and had one. Otherwise I'm sure it wouldn't have occurred to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104

    Mr. Doethur, yeah, that was a bit silly.

    Verstappen almost got screwed by bad traffic. Good result for the title race, I think.

    Well, it is if you want Verstappen to win it. Less good if you support Hamilton or a very close contest.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    MattW said:

    Thank-you for a thoughtful piece, Mike.

    Should be a good conversation today.

    Until Scottn Paste enters the fray...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I thought the data showed that while initially Pfizer was much better at stopping infection by month 6 it was pretty much of a wash with AZ? Which would suggest any advantage our continental friends may have initially enjoyed might start waning quite soon - especially as most stuck to the less effective 3 week dosing interval - let’s hope they get boosting promptly and the UK picks up the pace on its booster program.

    Yes, that was what I thought too.

    Unfortunately, the NHS has now released data that shows that AZ efficacy drops quicker than Pfizer. The FT has a chart of it here: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100728623546373/photo/1
    Doesn’t the security d chart show that with an 8+ week interval they are about the same?
    The full paper is here - https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/Vaccine+effectiveness+and+duration+of+protection+of+covid+vaccines+against+mild+and+severe+COVID-19+in+the+UK.pdf/10dcd99c-0441-0403-dfd8-11ba2c6f5801

    I'm not seeing that in there.

    All the evidence seems to show that the perfect dosing strategy is probably AZ followed by Pfizer (or more likely Moderna) eight weeks later.

    Which - incidentally - is exactly what Frau Merkel got.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,746
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    There are quite a few childhood vaccines where you need three doses - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/downloads/child/0-18yrs-child-combined-schedule.pdf

    So it's not that uncommon.

    Plus, of course, our first vaccines were developed quickly, and will be further improved as time goes on. And some things - like tetanus - we get boosters every few years.

    My guess is that we'll have annual boosters for a year or two, and then it'll get integrated with the flu shot.
    Does anyone actually get their tetanus booster?
    I was bitten by a dog a few years ago and had one. Otherwise I'm sure it wouldn't have occurred to me.
    Tetanus is once a decade, no?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,726
    Scott_xP said:
    Well, actually complaining that the decision to include us in the programme hasn't been ratified.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,459

    MattW said:

    Thank-you for a thoughtful piece, Mike.

    Should be a good conversation today.

    Until Scottn Paste enters the fray...
    He already has. Something about Brexit 🙄
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,323
    Mr. Doethur, it's not a huge gap now. And the only reason it was so close was horrendous traffic for Verstappen. Given how much luck Hamilton's had earlier this season, I think this is a good result. And I would like a change of champion. Too much dominance is tedious.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,928

    Hello everyone. Excellent day's cricket yesterday. Not quite sure what to expect of this afternoon; Afghanistan vs Scotland.

    Commiserations to India. The 'good' Pakistan turned up.

    An excellent day’s sport yesterday. At one point I was trying to follow cricket, football and motor racing all at the same time!

    Congratulations to Pakistan, Liverpool, Max Verstappen and Jamie Chadwick, among many others.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,928

    Scott_xP said:
    Well, actually complaining that the decision to include us in the programme hasn't been ratified.
    EU failing to implement what they’ve already agreed to, as it might have been put if it were the other way round.

    Looks like dragging of feet and border pedantry is all they have left.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    Sandpit said:

    Hello everyone. Excellent day's cricket yesterday. Not quite sure what to expect of this afternoon; Afghanistan vs Scotland.

    Commiserations to India. The 'good' Pakistan turned up.

    An excellent day’s sport yesterday. At one point I was trying to follow cricket, football and motor racing all at the same time!

    Congratulations to Pakistan, Liverpool, Max Verstappen and Jamie Chadwick, among many others.
    Some very good stadia for cricket in the UAE and Oman. Went there a few years ago on a cricket tour and were told massive improvements were in hand.
  • On topic, I got double Pfizered. "Ooh that's the good one, you don't want AZ, we're all getting Pfizer" was the feedback of some medical professional friends.

    For all of the fuss about AZ which then got hyper-partisan as the jab turned into a proxy Brexit war, it does look like AZ isn't as effective as others. Still worth having, but hardly the world-beating jab it was billed as.

    I don't blame the politicians who were ramping it as such, we didn't know. But as I said the other day, Covid has become the most absurd partisan slug-fest, and no more so than in America.

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,192
    The speed of our roll out of vaccines was seriously impressive and I think that is at least a part of the problem in the booster program. There are just too many people who got their vaccines 6 months ago. There seems to have been some winding down of the vaccination program as the number turning up each day declined and it hasn't been scaled up again. In Dundee the operation has moved to much smaller premises and there are queues out into the street, quite long ones.

    It also appears that some countries have been better at breaking down vaccine resistance than us which means that we have slipped to something like mid table in vaccines per hundred people. We need to look and learn from them how to overcome this. Otherwise more of the stupid will die which seems unnecessary.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    We already did
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,928
    edited October 25

    Sandpit said:

    Hello everyone. Excellent day's cricket yesterday. Not quite sure what to expect of this afternoon; Afghanistan vs Scotland.

    Commiserations to India. The 'good' Pakistan turned up.

    An excellent day’s sport yesterday. At one point I was trying to follow cricket, football and motor racing all at the same time!

    Congratulations to Pakistan, Liverpool, Max Verstappen and Jamie Chadwick, among many others.
    Some very good stadia for cricket in the UAE and Oman. Went there a few years ago on a cricket tour and were told massive improvements were in hand.
    Yes, the Dubai and Abu Dhabi stadia are both pretty new. Dubai has 25,000 seats, a lot of which were full last night. I think it opened around 2009. Corridors pretty much the whole way around behind the seating, it’s very well laid out.

    It’s still annoying when the prawn sandwich brigade don’t take turn up and take their seats though. Because it’s the World Cup half the seats in the ground are reserved for the various interests, leaving a sold-out public sale but a bunch of empty seats during the match. Tickets for last night’s match were changing hands for 10x face value on the local secondary market.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I thought the data showed that while initially Pfizer was much better at stopping infection by month 6 it was pretty much of a wash with AZ? Which would suggest any advantage our continental friends may have initially enjoyed might start waning quite soon - especially as most stuck to the less effective 3 week dosing interval - let’s hope they get boosting promptly and the UK picks up the pace on its booster program.

    Yes, that was what I thought too.

    Unfortunately, the NHS has now released data that shows that AZ efficacy drops quicker than Pfizer. The FT has a chart of it here: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100728623546373/photo/1
    Doesn’t the security d chart show that with an 8+ week interval they are about the same?
    The full paper is here - https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/Vaccine+effectiveness+and+duration+of+protection+of+covid+vaccines+against+mild+and+severe+COVID-19+in+the+UK.pdf/10dcd99c-0441-0403-dfd8-11ba2c6f5801

    I'm not seeing that in there.

    All the evidence seems to show that the perfect dosing strategy is probably AZ followed by Pfizer (or more likely Moderna) eight weeks later.

    Which - incidentally - is exactly what Frau Merkel got.
    AZ + PFE is what I’ll get at some point
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852

    On topic, I got double Pfizered. "Ooh that's the good one, you don't want AZ, we're all getting Pfizer" was the feedback of some medical professional friends.

    For all of the fuss about AZ which then got hyper-partisan as the jab turned into a proxy Brexit war, it does look like AZ isn't as effective as others. Still worth having, but hardly the world-beating jab it was billed as.

    I don't blame the politicians who were ramping it as such, we didn't know. But as I said the other day, Covid has become the most absurd partisan slug-fest, and no more so than in America.

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    AZ is a seriously good vaccine. Far better than many others (for other vaccines), developed in record time, temperature stable and exceptionally cheap.

    That is world beating by any measure.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    Scott_xP said:

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    We already did
    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,192
    Charles said:

    On topic, I got double Pfizered. "Ooh that's the good one, you don't want AZ, we're all getting Pfizer" was the feedback of some medical professional friends.

    For all of the fuss about AZ which then got hyper-partisan as the jab turned into a proxy Brexit war, it does look like AZ isn't as effective as others. Still worth having, but hardly the world-beating jab it was billed as.

    I don't blame the politicians who were ramping it as such, we didn't know. But as I said the other day, Covid has become the most absurd partisan slug-fest, and no more so than in America.

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    AZ is a seriously good vaccine. Far better than many others (for other vaccines), developed in record time, temperature stable and exceptionally cheap.

    That is world beating by any measure.

    I think that the most important aspect of AZ is that temperature stability. For countries with less comprehensive health systems it is a life saver, for countries like ours its much less important. But around the world and in the third world in particular it will save hundreds of thousands of lives.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,608
    DavidL said:

    The speed of our roll out of vaccines was seriously impressive and I think that is at least a part of the problem in the booster program. There are just too many people who got their vaccines 6 months ago. There seems to have been some winding down of the vaccination program as the number turning up each day declined and it hasn't been scaled up again. In Dundee the operation has moved to much smaller premises and there are queues out into the street, quite long ones.

    It also appears that some countries have been better at breaking down vaccine resistance than us which means that we have slipped to something like mid table in vaccines per hundred people. We need to look and learn from them how to overcome this. Otherwise more of the stupid will die which seems unnecessary.

    I don't know much about what the UK operation looks like on the ground but I wonder if these are two sides of the same coin: The UK has a very centralized healthcare system, which makes it easy to set a big top-down objective (make a vaccines available to everyone asap) and scale it up fast. Whereas if you have more decentralization you'll have more of a range of different approaches - some run by companies for their own employees, others by different tiers of government doing different things, then each individual clinic doing whatever they think best - which is initially more chaotic to organize, but should ultimately be better at mopping up people who were busy or lazy or whatever.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,192

    DavidL said:

    The speed of our roll out of vaccines was seriously impressive and I think that is at least a part of the problem in the booster program. There are just too many people who got their vaccines 6 months ago. There seems to have been some winding down of the vaccination program as the number turning up each day declined and it hasn't been scaled up again. In Dundee the operation has moved to much smaller premises and there are queues out into the street, quite long ones.

    It also appears that some countries have been better at breaking down vaccine resistance than us which means that we have slipped to something like mid table in vaccines per hundred people. We need to look and learn from them how to overcome this. Otherwise more of the stupid will die which seems unnecessary.

    I don't know much about what the UK operation looks like on the ground but I wonder if these are two sides of the same coin: The UK has a very centralized healthcare system, which makes it easy to set a big top-down objective (make a vaccines available to everyone asap) and scale it up fast. Whereas if you have more decentralization you'll have more of a range of different approaches - some run by companies for their own employees, others by different tiers of government doing different things, then each individual clinic doing whatever they think best - which is initially more chaotic to organize, but should ultimately be better at mopping up people who were busy or lazy or whatever.
    Maybe. I just remember those brilliant French adverts and the very overt link between freedom and the jab. We got bogged down in silly arguments about vaccine passports etc and lost that opportunity to incentivise. That was a mistake and it will cost a significant number of lives.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    On topic, I got double Pfizered. "Ooh that's the good one, you don't want AZ, we're all getting Pfizer" was the feedback of some medical professional friends.

    For all of the fuss about AZ which then got hyper-partisan as the jab turned into a proxy Brexit war, it does look like AZ isn't as effective as others. Still worth having, but hardly the world-beating jab it was billed as.

    I don't blame the politicians who were ramping it as such, we didn't know. But as I said the other day, Covid has become the most absurd partisan slug-fest, and no more so than in America.

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    AZ is a seriously good vaccine. Far better than many others (for other vaccines), developed in record time, temperature stable and exceptionally cheap.

    That is world beating by any measure.

    I think that the most important aspect of AZ is that temperature stability. For countries with less comprehensive health systems it is a life saver, for countries like ours its much less important. But around the world and in the third world in particular it will save hundreds of thousands of lives.

    Absolutely. PFE and Moderna are good vaccines. But they are products of the US pharmaceutical industry - effective, safe, high priced premium products that are suitable for developed markets
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example


    And that tweet is entirely true.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    TLdr: if vaccine efficacy doesn’t last long and you go first, you need to be first with the follow up, or your advantage disappears. Especially it the vaccine you choose isn’t quite as good.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,746
    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,180

    On topic, I got double Pfizered. "Ooh that's the good one, you don't want AZ, we're all getting Pfizer" was the feedback of some medical professional friends.

    For all of the fuss about AZ which then got hyper-partisan as the jab turned into a proxy Brexit war, it does look like AZ isn't as effective as others. Still worth having, but hardly the world-beating jab it was billed as.

    I don't blame the politicians who were ramping it as such, we didn't know. But as I said the other day, Covid has become the most absurd partisan slug-fest, and no more so than in America.

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    Some of us are old enough to remember when it was the Oxford-AstraZeneca and one had to go before the Committee for Un-British Activities for leaving off the Oxford.
  • Charles said:

    On topic, I got double Pfizered. "Ooh that's the good one, you don't want AZ, we're all getting Pfizer" was the feedback of some medical professional friends.

    For all of the fuss about AZ which then got hyper-partisan as the jab turned into a proxy Brexit war, it does look like AZ isn't as effective as others. Still worth having, but hardly the world-beating jab it was billed as.

    I don't blame the politicians who were ramping it as such, we didn't know. But as I said the other day, Covid has become the most absurd partisan slug-fest, and no more so than in America.

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    AZ is a seriously good vaccine. Far better than many others (for other vaccines), developed in record time, temperature stable and exceptionally cheap.

    That is world beating by any measure.

    No, it clearly isn't world-beating by any measure. It may be world-beating by some measures, but those measures don't include development time (Pfizer was out first) or, it seems, efficacy (Pfizer seems to be a little more effective).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,940
    rcs1000 said:

    I thought the data showed that while initially Pfizer was much better at stopping infection by month 6 it was pretty much of a wash with AZ? Which would suggest any advantage our continental friends may have initially enjoyed might start waning quite soon - especially as most stuck to the less effective 3 week dosing interval - let’s hope they get boosting promptly and the UK picks up the pace on its booster program.

    Yes, that was what I thought too.

    Unfortunately, the NHS has now released data that shows that AZ efficacy drops quicker than Pfizer. The FT has a chart of it here: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100728623546373/photo/1
    This is the most recent data I've seen:



    Which does show a significant Pfizer advantage to start, dropping to near parity by 6m.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    edited October 25
    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.
  • TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    There are quite a few childhood vaccines where you need three doses - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/downloads/child/0-18yrs-child-combined-schedule.pdf

    So it's not that uncommon.

    Plus, of course, our first vaccines were developed quickly, and will be further improved as time goes on. And some things - like tetanus - we get boosters every few years.

    My guess is that we'll have annual boosters for a year or two, and then it'll get integrated with the flu shot.
    Does anyone actually get their tetanus booster?
    I was bitten by a dog a few years ago and had one. Otherwise I'm sure it wouldn't have occurred to me.
    How's the dog?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754
    Does anyone know why vaccines stop working? It does seems that this is unusual.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,752
    Interesting data models this morning. The government data people agree with what some of us have been saying for weeks, we're approaching vaccine+natural herd immunity. It may be a matter of days before cases fall through the floor and everything else follows.

    It's interesting that these data models that may be very accurate and paint a "don't panic" picture had to be leaked to the media while the "panic now" models with 7k hospitalisations per day get openly revealed by SPI-M and SAGE.

    There has been a real lack of honesty by the scientists doing the work.

    Anyway, fingers crossed that they (and we) are right about this.

    The other thing that was very interesting was the government data modellers now also believe NPIs serve as displacement activity. When we didn't have vaccines displacement activity was a net positive, now it may be a net negative because those of us who got vaccinated may have waning immunity.

    Plan B, lockdown, Plan C. They all may end up making everyone feel good about how virtuous they all are saving lives but could end up doing the opposite as we all sit indoors with our immunity dropping off. I'd rather come into contact with the virus at 90% efficacy than 60%.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,726
    Jonathan said:

    Does anyone know why vaccines stop working? It does seems that this is unusual.

    I think it's normal. There are some diseases where vaccines or infection give immediate lifelong protection but they seem to be rare.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,928
    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    Got to get the plebs out of their cars and onto the buses, leave the roads for the important people.

    To be more serious, there is going to be a huge pushback against the green stuff, when people see it affecting their daily lives. How many low-income workers in key services, have old cars they run on shoestring budgets to get to work? It’s millions across the country.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,752
    Jonathan said:

    Does anyone know why vaccines stop working? It does seems that this is unusual.

    They don't. They still have >95% efficacy against hospitalisation and close to 100% efficacy against death which is largely based on t-cell and b-cell immunity (lifetime immunity). Infection efficacy seems to be based on neutralising antibody concentration and that wanes pretty quickly, not just for COVID. It's the reason we can catch the same cold within months of having the last one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,746
    edited October 25
    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    The other interesting one is that afaik he has not yet restored the 90% discount on the CC for residents of the CC zone. That's an extra £13.50 a day for anyone living in most of Zone 1 and part of Zone 2 every time they use a car.

    Electorally relevant? Who may this hurt?

    Do those of you living there notice this?
  • MaxPB said:

    Interesting data models this morning. The government data people agree with what some of us have been saying for weeks, we're approaching vaccine+natural herd immunity. It may be a matter of days before cases fall through the floor and everything else follows.

    It's interesting that these data models that may be very accurate and paint a "don't panic" picture had to be leaked to the media while the "panic now" models with 7k hospitalisations per day get openly revealed by SPI-M and SAGE.

    There has been a real lack of honesty by the scientists doing the work.

    Anyway, fingers crossed that they (and we) are right about this.

    The other thing that was very interesting was the government data modellers now also believe NPIs serve as displacement activity. When we didn't have vaccines displacement activity was a net positive, now it may be a net negative because those of us who got vaccinated may have waning immunity.

    Plan B, lockdown, Plan C. They all may end up making everyone feel good about how virtuous they all are saving lives but could end up doing the opposite as we all sit indoors with our immunity dropping off. I'd rather come into contact with the virus at 90% efficacy than 60%.

    I hope you are correct.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852

    Charles said:

    On topic, I got double Pfizered. "Ooh that's the good one, you don't want AZ, we're all getting Pfizer" was the feedback of some medical professional friends.

    For all of the fuss about AZ which then got hyper-partisan as the jab turned into a proxy Brexit war, it does look like AZ isn't as effective as others. Still worth having, but hardly the world-beating jab it was billed as.

    I don't blame the politicians who were ramping it as such, we didn't know. But as I said the other day, Covid has become the most absurd partisan slug-fest, and no more so than in America.

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    AZ is a seriously good vaccine. Far better than many others (for other vaccines), developed in record time, temperature stable and exceptionally cheap.

    That is world beating by any measure.

    No, it clearly isn't world-beating by any measure. It may be world-beating by some measures, but those measures don't include development time (Pfizer was out first) or, it seems, efficacy (Pfizer seems to be a little more effective).
    I would see “world beating” as a collective assessment. So “any measure” is however you wish to judge the overall package.

    Pfizer is certainly better on many specific aspects, but as an overall contribute to the world, less so
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481

    Jonathan said:

    Does anyone know why vaccines stop working? It does seems that this is unusual.

    I think it's normal. There are some diseases where vaccines or infection give immediate lifelong protection but they seem to be rare.
    Not sure it is a case of "stop working", more that the effect on the immune system declines. Immune system is very complex and involves interactions at many levels in the body. iirc if you have had the jab you will always have some favourable response to a covid attack as the immune system has learnt what to do but it may not be "remembered" well enough to keep the bug at bay as the months go by.
  • Charles said:

    On topic, I got double Pfizered. "Ooh that's the good one, you don't want AZ, we're all getting Pfizer" was the feedback of some medical professional friends.

    For all of the fuss about AZ which then got hyper-partisan as the jab turned into a proxy Brexit war, it does look like AZ isn't as effective as others. Still worth having, but hardly the world-beating jab it was billed as.

    I don't blame the politicians who were ramping it as such, we didn't know. But as I said the other day, Covid has become the most absurd partisan slug-fest, and no more so than in America.

    However bad our politics are - and it's not great - pray that we don't follow America down the rabbit-hole to lies are truth land.

    AZ is a seriously good vaccine. Far better than many others (for other vaccines), developed in record time, temperature stable and exceptionally cheap.

    That is world beating by any measure.

    No, it clearly isn't world-beating by any measure. It may be world-beating by some measures, but those measures don't include development time (Pfizer was out first) or, it seems, efficacy (Pfizer seems to be a little more effective).
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca was used as the stick to beat the EU with to prove that both Brexit and Boris were right.

    The problem with pro-Boris ramping is the rampee almost always ends up looking foolish as the facts quickly disagree with the spin.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,928
    MaxPB said:

    Interesting data models this morning. The government data people agree with what some of us have been saying for weeks, we're approaching vaccine+natural herd immunity. It may be a matter of days before cases fall through the floor and everything else follows.

    It's interesting that these data models that may be very accurate and paint a "don't panic" picture had to be leaked to the media while the "panic now" models with 7k hospitalisations per day get openly revealed by SPI-M and SAGE.

    There has been a real lack of honesty by the scientists doing the work.

    Anyway, fingers crossed that they (and we) are right about this.

    The other thing that was very interesting was the government data modellers now also believe NPIs serve as displacement activity. When we didn't have vaccines displacement activity was a net positive, now it may be a net negative because those of us who got vaccinated may have waning immunity.

    Plan B, lockdown, Plan C. They all may end up making everyone feel good about how virtuous they all are saving lives but could end up doing the opposite as we all sit indoors with our immunity dropping off. I'd rather come into contact with the virus at 90% efficacy than 60%.

    Here is an example of what happens as herd immunity is reached - the cases drop from thousands to dozens in a matter of a few weeks.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    Jonathan said:

    Does anyone know why vaccines stop working? It does seems that this is unusual.

    Cells that recognise the virus die off and are replaced meaning you become reliant on your memory T cells for protection
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,358
    edited October 25
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    Got to get the plebs out of their cars and onto the buses, leave the roads for the important people.

    To be more serious, there is going to be a huge pushback against the green stuff, when people see it affecting their daily lives. How many low-income workers in key services, have old cars they run on shoestring budgets to get to work? It’s millions across the country.
    Two discussions getting disproportionately little space:
    What are the impacts of trending towards zero emissions on less well off people.

    And what is the practical maths of whether it is in fact possible to reach the maximum target levels of CO2 in the timeframe (or at all), and then keep them there by continuing zero emissions.

    This second question is by miles objectively the most important and most interesting. The relative absence of popular and political level discussion suggests both a disquieting answer and denial.

    Does anyone know if I am right about this?

  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    edited October 25
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I'm struggling to think how this takes away your liberty. You don't need to show your passport, but if you don't you can't come in. It is your liberty to choose. I also don't have the liberty to drive on the right side of the road. Do you think I should have the liberty to do so without consequences. You are not allowed to because of the harm you may do to others.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Does anyone know why vaccines stop working? It does seems that this is unusual.

    They don't. They still have >95% efficacy against hospitalisation and close to 100% efficacy against death which is largely based on t-cell and b-cell immunity (lifetime immunity). Infection efficacy seems to be based on neutralising antibody concentration and that wanes pretty quickly, not just for COVID. It's the reason we can catch the same cold within months of having the last one.
    We don’t catch the same cold though. We catch a mutated cousin. You get lifetime immunity vs individual colds

    (The overall thrust of your post is right though)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    The other interesting one is that afaik he has not yet restored the 90% discount on the CC for residents of the CC zone. That's an extra £13.50 a day for anyone living in most of Zone 1 and part of Zone 2 every time they use a car.

    Electorally relevant? Who may this hurt?

    Do those of you living there notice this?
    Yes!

    He’s also refused to roll back the weekend charge as he promised in the election.

    It costs us £20 each time we drive
  • algarkirk said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    Got to get the plebs out of their cars and onto the buses, leave the roads for the important people.

    To be more serious, there is going to be a huge pushback against the green stuff, when people see it affecting their daily lives. How many low-income workers in key services, have old cars they run on shoestring budgets to get to work? It’s millions across the country.
    Two discussions getting disproportionately little space:
    What are the impacts of trending towards zero emissions on less well off people.

    And what is the practical maths of whether it is in fact possible to reach the maximum target levels of CO2 in the timeframe (or at all), and then keep them there by continuing zero emissions.

    This second question is by miles objectively the most important and most interesting. The relative absence of popular and political level discussion suggests both a disquieting answer and denial.

    Does anyone know if I am right about this?

    In somewhere like Greater London there are other targets they could go after first. Get all those vans electrified. Reduce HGV moves. Buses. And then go after the poorest workers with the oldest cars.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    "If [Boris] backslides in the coming days then he will normalise the idea that basic personal freedom in the winter months depends on the consent of the medical class. That must not be allowed to happen."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/10/24/pm-must-hold-firm-against-winter-plan-doom-mongers-risk-long/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    kjh said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I'm struggling to think how this takes away your liberty. You don't need to show your passport, but if you don't you can't come in. It is your liberty to choose. I also don't have the liberty to drive on the right side of the road. Do you think I should have the liberty to do so without consequences. You are not allowed to because of the harm you may do to others.
    You are not being prevented from driving to A to B.

    You are being prevented from participating in normal life.
  • Happily no longer a Londoner. Something needs to be done about the state of the environment because you can taste the pollution now.

    But it's also clear that Sadiq Khan isn't much good. How on earth did the Tories miss the open goal by selecting someone worse as their candidate?

    However bad Khan is on whatever the issue, the simple reality is that Bailey would have been worse. The same rationale that saw the Johnson 80 seat win got Khan comfortably re-elected.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,746
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example


    And that tweet is entirely true.
    Is it. I don’t remember raw sewerage being pumped into the sea ‘ rivers back in 2017 to 19. Yet today


    Sir Roger Gale MP

    I, like many of my constituents, am appalled to see the way in which Southern Water keep using our bathing waters as a dumping site. I have not been able to vote on the amendments or the Environment Bill itself as I chaired the Bill through the committee stages.

    https://twitter.com/SirRogerGale/status/1452524041227673602
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,726
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    Got to get the plebs out of their cars and onto the buses, leave the roads for the important people.

    To be more serious, there is going to be a huge pushback against the green stuff, when people see it affecting their daily lives. How many low-income workers in key services, have old cars they run on shoestring budgets to get to work? It’s millions across the country.
    They also need to restore rush-hour train frequencies. Your journey may be more comfortable due to fewer passengers, but inability to travel when you want adds to the PITA factor and lengthens journeys. I took the train into work the other week and found the convenient 1713 home wasn't running any more.

    (Also I do realise that commuting against the flow by public transport can be a fools errand. Services get messed up on the way into town and if anything goes wrong are often sacrificed to protect the inward flow.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,746
    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    The other interesting one is that afaik he has not yet restored the 90% discount on the CC for residents of the CC zone. That's an extra £13.50 a day for anyone living in most of Zone 1 and part of Zone 2 every time they use a car.

    Electorally relevant? Who may this hurt?

    Do those of you living there notice this?
    Yes!

    He’s also refused to roll back the weekend charge as he promised in the election.

    It costs us £20 each time we drive
    Checking I see that people registered for CC pre-July 2020 have their discount grandfathered in. Shouldn't this be you, or do you live in the 'burbs eg Zone 2 :smile: ?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example



    It's a good example of the crap you post if nothing else ....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I am struggling to see any downsides of Covid passports to put against the four advantages I set out. The liberty argument doesn't work in my view. Surely the freedom not to be infected, get very ill and be treated for any disease, not just Covid, by a functioning healthcare system, trumps the freedom not to comply with a piece of bureaucracy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    Charles said:

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty

    Liberty to infect others is not a benefit.

    Sajid Javid suggests vaccinations will soon be mandatory for NHS staff.

    “That is my direction of travel”.

    Will be welcomed by social care - at the moment some are leaving care to work in the NHS, where jabs are not yet compulsory.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1452535639489064960
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,928
    edited October 25
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I am struggling to see any downsides of Covid passports to put against the four advantages I set out. The liberty argument doesn't work in my view. Surely the freedom not to be infected, get very ill and be treated for any disease, not just Covid, by a functioning healthcare system, trumps the freedom not to comply with a piece of bureaucracy.
    The issue is making hundreds of thousands of businesses, and tens of millions of vaccinated people, jump through hoops because of the 10% who don’t want to be vaccinated.

    Those who did the right thing, should be able to live their lives as normal.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,746

    Happily no longer a Londoner. Something needs to be done about the state of the environment because you can taste the pollution now.

    But it's also clear that Sadiq Khan isn't much good. How on earth did the Tories miss the open goal by selecting someone worse as their candidate?

    However bad Khan is on whatever the issue, the simple reality is that Bailey would have been worse. The same rationale that saw the Johnson 80 seat win got Khan comfortably re-elected.

    Looking at the archives back to 2014, there seem to have been quite marked improvements.

    https://aqicn.org/city/london/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,478
    Jonathan said:

    Does anyone know why vaccines stop working? It does seems that this is unusual.

    The immune system has a memory and over time starts to forget stuff (like me). Of course the immune system is complex, so antibodies that can be measured in the blood do not represent the whole immune response. Thus after a challenge, specific antibodies will be high, then will wane with time (not required). But the memory will still be there, leading to a swift response on the next challenge. This is how vaccination works - present a 'safe' challenge to prime the immune system, and then when it sees the real challenge its ready.

    There is evidence of some immunity to SARS still in recovered patients, and this may well hold true for covid. Its not certain that we will need annual boosters for instance - three doses may be enough for ever, or at least until a significantly new variant arrives (if it does).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example


    And that tweet is entirely true.
    Is it. I don’t remember raw sewerage being pumped into the sea ‘ rivers back in 2017 to 19. Yet today


    Sir Roger Gale MP

    I, like many of my constituents, am appalled to see the way in which Southern Water keep using our bathing waters as a dumping site. I have not been able to vote on the amendments or the Environment Bill itself as I chaired the Bill through the committee stages.

    https://twitter.com/SirRogerGale/status/1452524041227673602
    The “standards” haven’t changed though…
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I am struggling to see any downsides of Covid passports to put against the four advantages I set out. The liberty argument doesn't work in my view. Surely the freedom not to be infected, get very ill and be treated for any disease, not just Covid, by a functioning healthcare system, trumps the freedom not to comply with a piece of bureaucracy.
    The issue is making hundreds of thousands of businesses, and tens of millions of vaccinated people, jump through hoops because of the 10% who don’t want to be vaccinated.

    Those who did the right thing, should be able to live their lives as normal.
    It's actually about making sure other people do the right thing so we can live our lives as normal. Vaccine passports are an enabler of that.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I am struggling to see any downsides of Covid passports to put against the four advantages I set out. The liberty argument doesn't work in my view. Surely the freedom not to be infected, get very ill and be treated for any disease, not just Covid, by a functioning healthcare system, trumps the freedom not to comply with a piece of bureaucracy.
    The issue is making hundreds of thousands of businesses, and tens of millions of vaccinated people, jump through hoops because of the 10% who don’t want to be vaccinated.

    Those who did the right thing, should be able to live their lives as normal.
    It's actually about making sure other people do the right thing so we can live our lives as normal. Vaccine passports are an enabler of that.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example


    And that tweet is entirely true.
    Maybe, but who give a shit what Carrie Johnson thinks.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,964
    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    The other interesting one is that afaik he has not yet restored the 90% discount on the CC for residents of the CC zone. That's an extra £13.50 a day for anyone living in most of Zone 1 and part of Zone 2 every time they use a car.

    Electorally relevant? Who may this hurt?

    Do those of you living there notice this?
    Yes!

    He’s also refused to roll back the weekend charge as he promised in the election.

    It costs us £20 each time we drive
    Get an ebike
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    MattW said:

    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    The other interesting one is that afaik he has not yet restored the 90% discount on the CC for residents of the CC zone. That's an extra £13.50 a day for anyone living in most of Zone 1 and part of Zone 2 every time they use a car.

    Electorally relevant? Who may this hurt?

    Do those of you living there notice this?
    Yes!

    He’s also refused to roll back the weekend charge as he promised in the election.

    It costs us £20 each time we drive
    Checking I see that people registered for CC pre-July 2020 have their discount grandfathered in. Shouldn't this be you, or do you live in the 'burbs eg Zone 2 :smile: ?
    I’m in the burbs
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,676
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I am struggling to see any downsides of Covid passports to put against the four advantages I set out. The liberty argument doesn't work in my view. Surely the freedom not to be infected, get very ill and be treated for any disease, not just Covid, by a functioning healthcare system, trumps the freedom not to comply with a piece of bureaucracy.
    The issue is making hundreds of thousands of businesses, and tens of millions of vaccinated people, jump through hoops because of the 10% who don’t want to be vaccinated.

    Those who did the right thing, should be able to live their lives as normal.
    It's actually about making sure other people do the right thing so we can live our lives as normal. Vaccine passports are an enabler of that.
    I missed the discussion the other night, but I’d say that it’s no less illiberal to round up the refuseniks and force them to have the jab.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,407
    algarkirk said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    Got to get the plebs out of their cars and onto the buses, leave the roads for the important people.

    To be more serious, there is going to be a huge pushback against the green stuff, when people see it affecting their daily lives. How many low-income workers in key services, have old cars they run on shoestring budgets to get to work? It’s millions across the country.
    Two discussions getting disproportionately little space:
    What are the impacts of trending towards zero emissions on less well off people.

    And what is the practical maths of whether it is in fact possible to reach the maximum target levels of CO2 in the timeframe (or at all), and then keep them there by continuing zero emissions.

    This second question is by miles objectively the most important and most interesting. The relative absence of popular and political level discussion suggests both a disquieting answer and denial.

    Does anyone know if I am right about this?

    The least well off people in the world - subsistence farmers in Africa or people in Bangladesh for instance - are the people who stand to lose most from the world not going to net zero. It's up to the UK government to find a way for us to meet our collective obligations while mitigating its impact on the poor here as much as possible. We all have to do our bit and we all have to make some sacrifices. It's worth remembering that the rich have far higher carbon emissions than the poor, in every country, so the rich should make the biggest changes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    It's a combination of AZ not being as effective as Pfizer/Moderna - particularly at reducing transmission - and the fact that the UK started earlier.

    If you look at the median point - i.e. when 40% of people were jabbed - then the UK got there between three and four months before European countries.

    The combination of these two facts means the UK is suffering worst from fading protection.

    FORTUNATELY.

    This is also happening at the same time that the major transmission vector (schools) is running out of hosts. And the UK is also getting on with getting people booster doses. (Albeit, slightly slower than one might like.) Plus, all the evidence is that AZ + Pfizer/Moderna actually offers the best protection of all.

    So long as the UK gets on with booster doses, there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic about the track of cases and hospitalisation.

    And what of Europe? Well, right now Eastern Europe (particularly Bulgaria) is being hammered. You also have big outbreaks in Eastern Germany (low levels of vaccination) and in Brussels (ditto).

    Most of Europe is not (yet) facing a diminishing vaccine efficacy issue, except for the very old. That will change. But they also have plentiful supplies now, and they have a proven ability to get jabs in arms. They too need to start executing on third doses. They are lucky, however, that they probably have a couple of months on the UK.

    Do the experts think Dose 3 will “complete” the programme, or is vaccinator now a job for life?
    There are quite a few childhood vaccines where you need three doses - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/downloads/child/0-18yrs-child-combined-schedule.pdf

    So it's not that uncommon.

    Plus, of course, our first vaccines were developed quickly, and will be further improved as time goes on. And some things - like tetanus - we get boosters every few years.

    My guess is that we'll have annual boosters for a year or two, and then it'll get integrated with the flu shot.
    Does anyone actually get their tetanus booster?
    I was bitten by a dog a few years ago and had one. Otherwise I'm sure it wouldn't have occurred to me.
    How's the dog?
    It was a ****** little terrier which ran straight out of a terraced house and bit me. I had to summon all my zen like discipline not to boot it back over its useless owners who were trailing behind it and into the house from whence it came.

    It seemed fine. It is as always the owners who deserve the opprobrium.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437

    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example



    It's a good example of the crap you post if nothing else ....
    How? That tweet by Carrie Johnson and Gove's comment were utter nonsense. The EU did not stop us having higher standards. In fact the UK did have a tendency to gold plate EU regulations and then blame the EU for them.

    The EU prevented us from failing below minimum standards, it did not prevent us from exceeding them so Gove was being entirely irrational (I suspect intentionally so for those to stupid to realise it).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,852
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I am struggling to see any downsides of Covid passports to put against the four advantages I set out. The liberty argument doesn't work in my view. Surely the freedom not to be infected, get very ill and be treated for any disease, not just Covid, by a functioning healthcare system, trumps the freedom not to comply with a piece of bureaucracy.
    Othering is a very bad path to start down

    The fundamental principle is that government is not the boss
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,752
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I am struggling to see any downsides of Covid passports to put against the four advantages I set out. The liberty argument doesn't work in my view. Surely the freedom not to be infected, get very ill and be treated for any disease, not just Covid, by a functioning healthcare system, trumps the freedom not to comply with a piece of bureaucracy.
    You haven't spelled out what displacing infections into tomorrow gets us, other than possible higher severity. You keep banging on about the NHS collapsing but it isn't. Even they say it isn't, they're saying it could if the situation gets worse. It isn't getting worse, we've got no NPIs and this is as bad as it gets and every 1000 people who get infected today are ~950 who won't get infected in the future.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,726

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example


    And that tweet is entirely true.
    Maybe, but who give a shit what Carrie Johnson thinks.
    Scott, apparently
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    edited October 25
    Charles said:

    kjh said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    UK is paying for its governments not introducing proper Covid passports, I think. Potential benefits are (1) driving higher vaccination rates (2) keeping a proportion of infected people out of venues where the disease can easily be passed on (3) enforcing proper tracing if there is an outbreak (4) allowing venues to stay open if further restrictions are required.

    Although not directly comparable, I note according to Our World in Data that hospital admissions are running about five times higher in the UK than France, Germany and Italy.

    The UK is benefiting from the importance that its government puts on liberty
    I'm struggling to think how this takes away your liberty. You don't need to show your passport, but if you don't you can't come in. It is your liberty to choose. I also don't have the liberty to drive on the right side of the road. Do you think I should have the liberty to do so without consequences. You are not allowed to because of the harm you may do to others.
    You are not being prevented from driving to A to B.

    You are being prevented from participating in normal life.
    You are not. You are free to go to a concert, you just might have to show your vaccine passport, just like I am free to drive on the roads but I might have to show my driving licence, MOT certificate or insurance. No different.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,407
    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone getting caught by Mayor Sadiq's latest ULEZ wheeze?

    £12.50 per day for commuting from Wood Green, Walthamstow, Chiswick or Kew out of London if you have the wrong car. £3k a year for all the working days.

    Hmmm.

    The other interesting one is that afaik he has not yet restored the 90% discount on the CC for residents of the CC zone. That's an extra £13.50 a day for anyone living in most of Zone 1 and part of Zone 2 every time they use a car.

    Electorally relevant? Who may this hurt?

    Do those of you living there notice this?
    Yes!

    He’s also refused to roll back the weekend charge as he promised in the election.

    It costs us £20 each time we drive
    Checking I see that people registered for CC pre-July 2020 have their discount grandfathered in. Shouldn't this be you, or do you live in the 'burbs eg Zone 2 :smile: ?
    I’m in the burbs
    How can it cost you £20 each time you drive if you don't live in the CC zone? I live in zone 2 and in the ten years I've lived here I've never paid the CC, for the simple reason that I never drive into Central London. Get the bus!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    MaxPB said:

    Interesting data models this morning. The government data people agree with what some of us have been saying for weeks, we're approaching vaccine+natural herd immunity. It may be a matter of days before cases fall through the floor and everything else follows.

    It's interesting that these data models that may be very accurate and paint a "don't panic" picture had to be leaked to the media while the "panic now" models with 7k hospitalisations per day get openly revealed by SPI-M and SAGE.

    There has been a real lack of honesty by the scientists doing the work.

    Anyway, fingers crossed that they (and we) are right about this.

    The other thing that was very interesting was the government data modellers now also believe NPIs serve as displacement activity. When we didn't have vaccines displacement activity was a net positive, now it may be a net negative because those of us who got vaccinated may have waning immunity.

    Plan B, lockdown, Plan C. They all may end up making everyone feel good about how virtuous they all are saving lives but could end up doing the opposite as we all sit indoors with our immunity dropping off. I'd rather come into contact with the virus at 90% efficacy than 60%.

    The route for all the modelling has been exactly the same, to be fair. It's merely the way the media splash (or do not splash) that has been variable.
    There have been about three or four further projections of hospitalisations (generally peaking and declining) since the last one the media highlighted as being "newsworthy" enough. I'm actually a bit surprised that they bothered with this latest one - but the publication route and way they've been revealed have been exactly the same every time.

    I remember arguing with someone on another forum about the September ones - he thought they should have been held secret.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,889
    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    As your posts from Twitter every day demonstrate.

    Here is a good example



    It's a good example of the crap you post if nothing else ....
    How? That tweet by Carrie Johnson and Gove's comment were utter nonsense. The EU did not stop us having higher standards. In fact the UK did have a tendency to gold plate EU regulations and then blame the EU for them.

    The EU prevented us from failing below minimum standards, it did not prevent us from exceeding them so Gove was being entirely irrational (I suspect intentionally so for those to stupid to realise it).
    That such a transparently obvious truth needs explaining shows why Brexit discussions are futile. People believe what they want to believe.
This discussion has been closed.