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Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

The expression 'the blind cannot see' comes to mind with your idolatry of Johnson

The obvious question is how would the Conservative Party survive having a Prime Minister suspended from Parliament for obvious lying?

But to be charitable... Johnson was the most electorally successful Conservative leader since Thatcher- the only one to get a thumping majority. Mostly by persuading Farage to walk off the relevant bits of the battlefield in 2019.

Hed have called an election if the defenestration hadnt happened 'let the people judge' and run on a Trump style 'they are after me to get to you' basis which would have fired up his fans and the likes of the 30% currently cheering for Nigel etc.
His lowest poll score (not includimg Goodwin at 25%) was 3% above the 2024 return and mostly low 30s even post Pincher

Hed have lost but held 200 to 220 seats or so

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

Very true. Boris would have got minimum 30% and the Tories would have held many of the seats lost to the LDs and we would likely still be in a Duopoly in England

Yes and some of the redwall seats would likely have stayed Conservative too if Boris had led the Tories at the 2024 GE

Certainly the likes of Middlesborough S and Cleveland East, Darlington, Redcar, Rother Valley etc woukd have stayed blue at 3 or 4% higher nationally under a 'remaining Boris' 2024 election

Wouldn’t say that Darlington would have

Rishi only lost it by 5.5%, tories on 34% against 24% nationally.
30% nationally (as in this example) and theyd almost certainly have held it
Obviously a 'what if' and the local result last Thursday says Darlington now is locked in Reform Gain but Boris Tories would imo have held it if Rishi Tories were that close

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

Boris had driven too many of his colleagues away with his own behaviour.

And would have driven even more away if he had remained PM for a few more months.

Say what you like but the fundamental problem was Boris's journey of self-destruction and the unwillingness of the Conservative establishment to do anything about it.

Boris could have been prime minister for ten years if he had been willing to have some self-control.

But he preferred to go to lockdown parties, grift money for redecorating and continually lie to his colleagues about trivial things.

She's going to end up looking like a power propellerhead.

Well done TSE, I loved History Repeating Itself with Shirley Bassey and the Propellerheads. Don't know if its true, but I once read an article that claimed that after Shirley Bassey agreed to record with them the actual recording was delayed because when she turned up she insisted on performing with a live orchestra for the recording? But Shirley Bassey is always a class act and old school.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzLT6_TQmq8&list=RDyzLT6_TQmq8&start_radio=1

There’s an album I bought in the late 90s, Shaken and Stirred: The David Arnold James Bond Project, where David Arnold reworked a load of Bond songs with different artists where there is a version of On Her Majesty’s Secret Service by the Propellerheads.

My favourite James Bond Theme song is Louis Armstrong's We Have All The Time In The World from On Her Majesty's Secret Service, in fact one of my all time favourite top 10 songs and I have very electic music tastes so its up there with other more modern songs.

I think Trump's dire performance as President is in danger of making us forget what a dismal candidate Harris was. She never seemed to say why she wanted to be President, had no original or inspiring ideas and, when given the chance to put her point across, actively fled from the media.

As I've said before, Democrats win when they have a charismatic bullshitter who inspires the young and the left without terrifying the centre and the middle-aged then lets them down in office - see Kennedy, Clinton, Obama. Trump may be so unpopular by 2028 that even Harris will win, or maybe she will be able to fake enough charisma, but the Democrats would be unwise to bank on that.

For all their faults Kennedy, Clinton, & Obama were three of the most outstanding political leaders of my lifetime. The only potential candidate coming anywhere near now is Buttigieg.

What do you think?

Sadly, I just can't see how Buttigieg gets through the primaries in the South.

Buttigieg needs to first explain why he repeatedly lied about Biden's fitness for office.

He can then explain what he achieved himself as transport secretary for four years.

You'll be going on about Hunter Biden next.
None of that is in the slightest bit relevant to Democratic primaries in three years time.

Assuming the US still has a democracy (not 100% guaranteed), the record of the current administration will be uppermost in voters minds, and whoever has the best shot at uniting the Democrats is likely to get the nomination.

I doubt that will be Harris, and on current form, it might just be Newsom. He's not exactly adored by the Democratic base, but he's getting traction for leading the opposition to Trump. Quite what he does after leaving the governor's office at the end of 2026 is an interesting question.

After four years of Trump, the Democrats need to find a unifying candidate. Harris isn’t that person.

I don't think Harris is the best choice for the Democrats in 2028, but I don't think it's fair to say she can't be a unifying candidate. She's in the middle of some of the party's internal debates. She has some gravitas as a former VP and candidate. She would be more of a unifying candidate than Newsom or AOC, two other names mentioned in this discussion.

Also, do the Democrats need to find a unifying candidate? The Republicans didn't win in 2024 with a unifying candidate. They won with about the least unifying candidate in the history of US Presidential elections. Maybe the Democrats need a firebrand candidate who's good on social media (a role AOC and Newsom are both auditioning for). Whoever they pick, the Republicans and Musk's Twitter will pump out the claim that they are a dangerous woke obsessed radical!

PBers have already started with that.

I think Trump's dire performance as President is in danger of making us forget what a dismal candidate Harris was. She never seemed to say why she wanted to be President, had no original or inspiring ideas and, when given the chance to put her point across, actively fled from the media.

As I've said before, Democrats win when they have a charismatic bullshitter who inspires the young and the left without terrifying the centre and the middle-aged then lets them down in office - see Kennedy, Clinton, Obama. Trump may be so unpopular by 2028 that even Harris will win, or maybe she will be able to fake enough charisma, but the Democrats would be unwise to bank on that.

For all their faults Kennedy, Clinton, & Obama were three of the most outstanding political leaders of my lifetime. The only potential candidate coming anywhere near now is Buttigieg.

What do you think?

The nominee Polymarket, with $300m+ traded so far, is very weird.

https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

The two favourites are Newsom and AOC, and I don’t see how either of them get there. Middle America isn’t voting for a very coastal liberal.

Gretchen Whitmer at 50/1 could be a good outsider, and they’ll want to keep at least one woman in the race for as long as possible. Josh Shapiro is probably underpriced at 20/1, as is Andy Beshear at 33/1.

Middle America doesn't come into it. This is the nominee market.

I do wonder if the Dem primary voters will even try and take into account the suitability of the candidates to beat a Republican (likely one of Rubio or Vance or DeSantis), or if they go for the most woke coastal ideologue that makes them feel warm and fuzzy inside?