Best Of

Note neither Ukraine, nor Europe are part of these negotiations.

Scoop: U.S. secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff
The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, U.S. and Russian officials tell Axios...

Phillips P O'Brien has just put out a rather pessimistic substack suggesting that the Europeans will be told the US will pull out of NATO if they don't agree to the peace plan, whatever it is. We are about to see the maximum leverage available to the US President applied to Ukraine and Europe - when we've all been hoping it might be applied to Russia.

Trump really wants to pull out of NATO; previous US administrations have seen their spending on NATO as worthwhile to ensure peace and keep Europe in the US sphere of influence, but Trump's US has no allies, only marks to milked. His view is that Europe should be paying the US for their presence. Europe isn't going to do that, so no dice.

If you accept the above as fact, then threatening withdraw unless Europe and Ukraine agree to a peace plan is win-win in Trump's view. Either the plan works and Trump is hailed once again as a Great Peacemaker (at least in his own befuddled mind) or a refusal provides cover for something he wants to do anyway.

From Europe's pov, being blackmailed to accept a settlement in Ukraine which puts our future security at serious risk, is Trump effectively abandoning NATO already.

Indeed. And we have had plenty of warning that this is coming. We should call his bluff and refuse to accept his plan.

This is for Ukraine to decide, not us, they have to live with the consequences. But if they choose to resist we must really go all out to help them as must the rest of Europe.

Larry Summers steps down from Open AI over Epstein ties.

Wow, too evil to be involved with AI, that is a high hurdle to clear.

The first sign of AGI will be when the AI will create its own moral code.

Apparently the latest version of Microsoft CoPilot in Windows 11 has the ability to create itself new user accounts with arbitrary privileges.

I guess the test will be if you try and turn it off, does it say "I can't let you do that, Dave', make itself a new account and lock you out?

W11 is quickly turning into an AI-led security nightmare.

Can we have W7 back please?

.

I'm not really sure anyone in the UK is advocating the Scandi model. Maybe Greens. We'd need much more trust in government to hand over sufficient money!

Interestingly the Scandi countries do not have much government debt, by some distance the lowest in Europe. They have always believed in paying for their welfare systems from tax not debt. Germany comes close too.

A cynic may notice that it hasn't generated a great deal of growth, even if not a debt crisis.

Switzerland meanwhile has lower taxes than the UK and Scandi nations, lower spending and still well run public services and no debt

The Swiss do also have compulsory private health insurance, so kinda like a tax but not called a tax, which somewhat flatters their tax picture. But, sure, there’s plenty we can learn from Switzerland. Which features would you copy? Close integration into the EU, a focus on high tech industries, or a much higher proportion of immigrants?

Switzerland not in the EU or even the EEA or a customs union though, only EFTA.

Switzerland also bans the face covering burka so is not that liberal on immigration issues

Switzeraland has the closest relationship to the EU of any country not in the EEA, and a much closer relationship than us.

I think over a quarter of the Swiss population are immigrants, much higher than in the UK.

Not a good argument. Family member worked in Switzerland for 30 years. When he couldn't work anymore and had run out of benefits, he was 'encouraged' to leave. Unfortunately this was before he could access his Swiss pension. The Swiss (Cantons) don't take any prisoners.

You have to make the difference between refugee immigrants, visa immigrants, EU work immigrants and unlawful immigrants. A catchall immigrant doesn't shed any light on discussions unless qualified. Work and Visa immigrants would be net contributors.

I’d love to see a more nuanced discussion around immigration, but it’s pretty clear that neither Reform or Labour are going to deliver that. Reform want people to think that all immigrants are scroungers and most of them are illegal. Labour seem to be along for the ride rather than pushing back on that.

The Lib Dem’s idea of a nuanced debate around migration is ‘we like it, let’s have loads more, and if you complain you’re a racist’

The reason we cannot have a nuanced debate is exactly that.

People see their communities changing and people coming in in rather large number. Raise concerns and get slapped down.

You missed a bit.

The Lib Dem’s idea of a nuanced debate around migration is ‘we like it, let’s have loads more, and if you complain you’re a racist, and if you want more houses built then you’re destroying the countryside, and if you can’t afford a house then work harder’

Sandpit, you are an immigrant, living in a country that is 88% immigrants. Why are you complaining about immigration?

He hasn't found the 'dark side' of Dubai yet. Still some time yet to get the wrong side of some of the pirates, thieves and criminals that call it home.

Note neither Ukraine, nor Europe are part of these negotiations.

Scoop: U.S. secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff
The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, U.S. and Russian officials tell Axios...

Phillips P O'Brien has just put out a rather pessimistic substack suggesting that the Europeans will be told the US will pull out of NATO if they don't agree to the peace plan, whatever it is. We are about to see the maximum leverage available to the US President applied to Ukraine and Europe - when we've all been hoping it might be applied to Russia.

Trump really wants to pull out of NATO; previous US administrations have seen their spending on NATO as worthwhile to ensure peace and keep Europe in the US sphere of influence, but Trump's US has no allies, only marks to milked. His view is that Europe should be paying the US for their presence. Europe isn't going to do that, so no dice.

If you accept the above as fact, then threatening withdraw unless Europe and Ukraine agree to a peace plan is win-win in Trump's view. Either the plan works and Trump is hailed once again as a Great Peacemaker (at least in his own befuddled mind) or a refusal provides cover for something he wants to do anyway.

From Europe's pov, being blackmailed to accept a settlement in Ukraine which puts our future security at serious risk, is Trump effectively abandoning NATO already.

Indeed. And we have had plenty of warning that this is coming. We should call his bluff and refuse to accept his plan.

.

I'm not really sure anyone in the UK is advocating the Scandi model. Maybe Greens. We'd need much more trust in government to hand over sufficient money!

Interestingly the Scandi countries do not have much government debt, by some distance the lowest in Europe. They have always believed in paying for their welfare systems from tax not debt. Germany comes close too.

A cynic may notice that it hasn't generated a great deal of growth, even if not a debt crisis.

Switzerland meanwhile has lower taxes than the UK and Scandi nations, lower spending and still well run public services and no debt

The Swiss do also have compulsory private health insurance, so kinda like a tax but not called a tax, which somewhat flatters their tax picture. But, sure, there’s plenty we can learn from Switzerland. Which features would you copy? Close integration into the EU, a focus on high tech industries, or a much higher proportion of immigrants?

Switzerland not in the EU or even the EEA or a customs union though, only EFTA.

Switzerland also bans the face covering burka so is not that liberal on immigration issues

Switzeraland has the closest relationship to the EU of any country not in the EEA, and a much closer relationship than us.

I think over a quarter of the Swiss population are immigrants, much higher than in the UK.

Not a good argument. Family member worked in Switzerland for 30 years. When he couldn't work anymore and had run out of benefits, he was 'encouraged' to leave. Unfortunately this was before he could access his Swiss pension. The Swiss (Cantons) don't take any prisoners.

You have to make the difference between refugee immigrants, visa immigrants, EU work immigrants and unlawful immigrants. A catchall immigrant doesn't shed any light on discussions unless qualified. Work and Visa immigrants would be net contributors.

I’d love to see a more nuanced discussion around immigration, but it’s pretty clear that neither Reform or Labour are going to deliver that. Reform want people to think that all immigrants are scroungers and most of them are illegal. Labour seem to be along for the ride rather than pushing back on that.

The Lib Dem’s idea of a nuanced debate around migration is ‘we like it, let’s have loads more, and if you complain you’re a racist’

The reason we cannot have a nuanced debate is exactly that.

People see their communities changing and people coming in in rather large number. Raise concerns and get slapped down.

You missed a bit.

The Lib Dem’s idea of a nuanced debate around migration is ‘we like it, let’s have loads more, and if you complain you’re a racist, and if you want more houses built then you’re destroying the countryside, and if you can’t afford a house then work harder’

Sandpit, you are an immigrant, living in a country that is 88% immigrants. Why are you complaining about immigration?

He hasn't found the 'dark side' of Dubai yet. Still some time yet to get the wrong side of some of the pirates, thieves and criminals that call it home.

I know that if I f up here, I’m getting deported.

It’s an amazing regulator of improper behaviour.

Larry Summers steps down from Open AI over Epstein ties.

Wow, too evil to be involved with AI, that is a high hurdle to clear.

The first sign of AGI will be when the AI will create its own moral code.

Apparently the latest version of Microsoft CoPilot in Windows 11 has the ability to create itself new user accounts with arbitrary privileges.

I guess the test will be if you try and turn it off, does it say "I can't let you do that, Dave', make itself a new account and lock you out?

W11 is quickly turning into an AI-led security nightmare.

Can we have W7 back please?

I’m glad my home machine is now a Mac.

So with inflation a whopping 0.4% below the Bank of England base rate there is already talk of lowering interest rates. Has it not occurred to people that inflation is usually below the official bank rate? What we see it that inflation is persistently higher than elsewhere. Cutting rates at such a moment feels like a gift for speculators. Feeding the AI bubble?

I think the AI bubble exists mainly inside the heads of politicians and media figures, wrapped up in woolly-kapok to make sure that no one makes it go pop.

POTUS is pretty clear he wants low interest rates and a short term stock bubble with pressure on the Fed. We seem overly keen on cheap borrowing too. I get that calling a bubble is provable after the event but at some point it will surely burst.

So with inflation a whopping 0.4% below the Bank of England base rate there is already talk of lowering interest rates. Has it not occurred to people that inflation is usually below the official bank rate? What we see it that inflation is persistently higher than elsewhere. Cutting rates at such a moment feels like a gift for speculators. Feeding the AI bubble?

I think the AI bubble exists mainly inside the heads of politicians and media figures, wrapped up in woolly-kapok to make sure that no one makes it go pop.

POTUS is pretty clear he wants low interest rates and a short term stock bubble with pressure on the Fed. We seem overly keen on cheap borrowing too. I get that calling a bubble is provable after the event but at some point it will surely burst.

There is probably an apocryphal story that Joe Kennedy, JFK's father, sold all his investments in 1929 after getting a stock tip from a shoe shine boy. He regarded this as fairly conclusive evidence that the market was a bubble and the Kennedy family fortune to this day is based upon that insight.

I think we are well into such territory for AI and probably tech stocks generally. I fear that when this bubble does burst the consequences for most other assets will be significant. What I can't work out is whether this is likely to be good for annuity returns or bad if base interest rates are once again cut to zero. Quite a lot turns on this assessment in respect of when I am likely to retire. I want to carry on working for a while but I am concerned about my pension funds.

Are you not switching it mainly to bonds as retirement approaches?

Its in general funds with Standard Life and BoS. I probably should be moving more into defensive investments. I'll have a look this weekend.

So with inflation a whopping 0.4% below the Bank of England base rate there is already talk of lowering interest rates. Has it not occurred to people that inflation is usually below the official bank rate? What we see it that inflation is persistently higher than elsewhere. Cutting rates at such a moment feels like a gift for speculators. Feeding the AI bubble?

I think the AI bubble exists mainly inside the heads of politicians and media figures, wrapped up in woolly-kapok to make sure that no one makes it go pop.

POTUS is pretty clear he wants low interest rates and a short term stock bubble with pressure on the Fed. We seem overly keen on cheap borrowing too. I get that calling a bubble is provable after the event but at some point it will surely burst.

So with inflation a whopping 0.4% below the Bank of England base rate there is already talk of lowering interest rates. Has it not occurred to people that inflation is usually below the official bank rate? What we see it that inflation is persistently higher than elsewhere. Cutting rates at such a moment feels like a gift for speculators. Feeding the AI bubble?

I think the AI bubble exists mainly inside the heads of politicians and media figures, wrapped up in woolly-kapok to make sure that no one makes it go pop.

POTUS is pretty clear he wants low interest rates and a short term stock bubble with pressure on the Fed. We seem overly keen on cheap borrowing too. I get that calling a bubble is provable after the event but at some point it will surely burst.

There is probably an apocryphal story that Joe Kennedy, JFK's father, sold all his investments in 1929 after getting a stock tip from a shoe shine boy. He regarded this as fairly conclusive evidence that the market was a bubble and the Kennedy family fortune to this day is based upon that insight.

I think we are well into such territory for AI and probably tech stocks generally. I fear that when this bubble does burst the consequences for most other assets will be significant. What I can't work out is whether this is likely to be good for annuity returns or bad if base interest rates are once again cut to zero. Quite a lot turns on this assessment in respect of when I am likely to retire. I want to carry on working for a while but I am concerned about my pension funds.

His name wasn't Johnny, was it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8hTAr7Nw4I