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Re: Record breakers – politicalbetting.com
american insurance seems wierd to me, not sure if it is common but a friends father had to have his roof replaced due to storm damage...the insurance company gave him less than his annual premium as they said the roof had been their 17 years therefore they gave him a figure that included depreciation of the roof over 17… -
Re: Jenrick’s price is collapsing like the England test team's batting in the 1990s
Do you really want to see the party of Churchill and McMillan turn fash- right? By the time these clowns have finished all you will have left is the name. Colour me sceptical but Badenoch and Farage don't strike me as a match made in heaven. -
Re: Jenrick slips to third place with punters today and likely third place with MPs tomorrow
On that particular, the strategy point is correct. On the rolodex of Housing Ministers, it's not just the end of the last Government. Those turned over because the last Tory Government turned over PMs like Bojo turned over mistresses. We had 16 Housing Ministers between 2010 and 2024 under Tory-led regimes. And 10 under… -
Re: The State of the Union, Week 6 – politicalbetting.com
A bit more detail. That £6bn the Telegraph claims would be saved "in the lead up to the budget" is actually explained in the article itself as being over a decade. But if you go back to the Impact Assessment for when the Tories proposed this the actual cash saving is more like ~£200m per annum afaics. Here's the impact… -
Re: The ConHome poll has moved the market – politicalbetting.com
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Re: More momentum for Cleverly – politicalbetting.com
That’s what they did in Zimbabwe, right? How did that turn out? -
Re: Cleverly becomes the favourite – politicalbetting.com
It's the treatment of likelihood to vote that is unclear in the polls. We know Kamala has a big advantage with graduates. How is that reflected in the reported vote share? Ipsos detailed data shows 63% absolutely certain to vote and 11% probably will vote. NB The actual turnout last time was 66%. There is no breakdown of… -
Re: Let’s talk about Robert Jenrick’s balls as there are betting implications – politicalbetting.com
It's what I call a fail-dangerous driving practice. It's a basic to always leave space for a cyclist to 'wobble', since that is how the vehicle works ... in a dynamic envelope. And on UK roads potholes are everywhere, so there may be one a vehicle behind cannot see. It's another reason for never riding a cycle less than… -
Re: Labour’s left-wing problem – politicalbetting.com
A 50k bike ride should burn off a decent amount of pizza/beer I would think! 😚🤨 -
Re: Most Brits would either be unbothered or pleased if the Malvinas went to Argentina
IF only the various news channels would offer scrutiny and criticism to the political process as a whole, then maybe a light entertainment programme would seem less important. -
Re: Not very clever from Cleverly – politicalbetting.com
might be ok built in , those ones stuck on like carbuncles are horrific -
Re: Bobby J’s choice of middle name isn’t very popular
I largely agree with your analysis but I still think it's worth waiting for the budget. My current conjecture is that, through political naiveté, Starmer and Reeves have put almost all their political thinking into a budget that somehow ends austerity whilst promoting growth, starting to fix the NHS etc (not that I'm… -
Re: Why you shouldn’t read too much into small unweighted subsamples – politicalbetting.com
Evening all :) Some of the comments on here make the deal done on the Chagpos Islands sound like the worst foreign policy disaster since Munich. Er, it's not. Obviously, those not well disposed towards the Government are trying to whip up some hysteria about it but it sounds close to the deal to which James Cleverly was… -
Re: After the beauty parade punters make Cleverly the coming man – politicalbetting.com
The combination of casualties and the much larger number of people who have fled has already had a huge impact on Russian demographics. Some experts are talking about a tipping point where large areas of Russia face terminal depopulation. Several Siberian cities, for example, have already lost over a third of their… -
Re: After the Veep debate Trump is now the favourite – politicalbetting.com
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Re: Kemi-kaze does it again as punters abandon her – politicalbetting.com
Game of Thrones crossed the line for me. I wasn't OK with some of the stuff they showed, and stopped after The Red Wedding. Yes, snowflake etc. but rape and murders and killing babies and burning alive just for entertainment isn't my idea of good telly. -
Re: A stunning achievement by Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Iran is making ballsy claims for the success of its missile attacks - 20 F35s, Nevatim base, tanks, a gas platform. How credible on a scale of 0-10? Meanwhile there is video of Israelis standing up Iranian ballistic missiles. -
Re: Is Kemi-kaze Badenoch about to blow an 18% lead? – politicalbetting.com
Where are the usual "both sidesers" to tell us it's more nuanced than that, and also btw Kamala Harris once exited a roundabout without indicating so they're all the same. -
Re: The State of the Union, Week 5 – politicalbetting.com
In short: * Work out what you believe in * Work out what the public want * Campaign on the overlap What is it that the public want that the Conservatives are willing to sell them? What is it that the Conservatives want that the public are willing to buy? -
Re: As the beauty parade begins – politicalbetting.com
After days and days of this heatwave, starting to sweat from 10am, the sun beating down relentlessly into the evening, interrupted by just a couple of days while the hurricane went by, I’m even beginning to look forward to getting back to some mediocre, mostly harmless weather