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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The case for making “personality” ratings a good electoral ind
So... Every year, big investment banks hire people to be traders. Often with little more than a degree and a big ego, these people are given "lines" of perhaps $20m to trade. Some of these traders immerse themselves in R, Python, Excel and Bloomberg and search constantly for signals. Does the movement of some asset class… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down
(continued) The remainder of the piece is worth reading. It goes into what might be wrong with the polls at some length, but the essence of this is a return of the Shy Tory Problem, this time in the Labour heartland, coupled with the more familiar argument that Labour's VI is being buoyed up by young people who probably… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » British politics 2016 in one word: Europe
Completely off topic, but some good photos of the hotel that caught fire the other night. http://www.thenational.ae/uae/a-closer-look-at-the-fire-damage-sustained-to-the-address-hotel---in-pictures#1 Looks like quite extensive damage to a number of rooms on one side of the residences, probably a dozen floors will need… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads.
Interesting point. If you want to bet odds-on you need to have serious money to make it work. In horse racing (where I bet far more often than on politics) one in three odds on chances gets beaten and it's much more sensible to follow the money rather than simply back the favourite. In a binary contest, it's harder to do… -
Re: Do you want to help out a bookie? – politicalbetting.com
Conservative Manifesto Part 3 Our plan to control immigration and stop illegal immigration* Illegal immigration in unfair. Only Tories have plan to stop the votes. Deterrence works. Reform asylum * End students and care workers bringing dependents. * Legal cap on migration – say set at level taking account of costs and… -
Re: Punters give Biden just a 30% chance of being the WH2024 nominee – politicalbetting.com
Worth thinking about this in relation to what else is happening. There is a good chance the Ds get a shellacking in November - almost certainly they will lose the House, despite what has been an extraordinary successful gerrymandering campaign in D states (although the judicial ruling in NY State was a big blow). Good… -
Re: ATTENTION Mid-Beds by-election punters – politicalbetting.com
I’m sorry I missed the discussion on water infrastructure before, but I’ll put in my two pennorth now, if I may. I’ve been head down in the area for more than four years now, specifically in the field of the Abingdon super-reservoir. I started thinking “Good idea. Reservoirs are good, right?” but ran into a thicket of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM
Afternoon all :) It's a warm day so I'll join the Boris love-in. I've explained on here why his persona was ideal for London in 2008 - with the GFC in full swing the last thing London needed was a dull pragmatist so we got an upbeat fantasist instead. Let's be honest - Boris beat Ken Livingstone of all people twice - had… -
Re: Interesting by-election stats from the Indy’s John Rentoul – politicalbetting.com
I presume one of the consequences of the Supreme Court decision will be, as states line up with their various lines of abortion, we'll see a greater polarisation between the more socially conservative and more liberal states (and within states between more conservative rural areas and more liberal cities). My very limited… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori November 2013 Issues Index and Local By-Election
The elephant in the room is Obamacare. In the 2010 midterms the Democrats suffered the biggest midterm loss in House seats in 85 years, because Obamacare was so unpopular - even though it had not yet passed. Obama endlessly repeated "If you like your health care plan, you can keep it. Period." "If you like your doctor, you… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reason why there’s all the confusion over Cameron’s com
@Random I think I should point out for the record that my candidature in Buckingham was strenuously opposed by the local Lib Dem membership. Leading LDs from Charles Kennedy downwards enthusiastically endorsed the Speaker. My principal supporters were Conservatives disillusioned with the Speaker, of whom there was no… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay is becoming big problem for the Johnson/Cummings regime
If we didn't have evidence from the horse's mouth about Farage's role, this attempt to rewrite history in order to validate prejudices might be more successful: "Without Boris, Farage would have been a much more prominent face on TV during the crucial final weeks, probably the most prominent face. (We had to use Boris as… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails
"Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster. Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay
Its been a pretty odd economic cycle though. We did not get the rapid recovery you normally get after a recession. We are not, late on in the cycle, seeing a surge in questionable investments based on what will appear in retrospect insanely optimistic projections. We have seen no pick up in inflation to talk of which would… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Ed Miliband wasn’t polling so badly then what’ll happen
I don't agree there. Blair was able to win because he dominated the centre ground, true, but also because he kept hold of Labour's core vote sufficiently. Indeed, he probably overdid it, forging an electoral coalition that relied too greatly on the centre ground that he still won even while Labour's core was melting.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?
OT. I had an extraordinary experience yesterday morning. I went to what we would describe as an accident and emergency department at Le Pasteur Hospital in Nice which I found on line. A pleasant new building. Despite arriving without a passport or any means of identificatin or even appearing to have anything wrong with me… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BES data that appears to show the impact of the CON manife
A good write up along the same lines: http://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/kathy-gyngell-todays-cosseted-britain-struggle-repeat-dunkirk/ On the first day, 7,669 men were evacuated, but by the end of the eighth day, the extraordinary number of 338,226 soldiers had been successfully brought back across the English Channel… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lynton Crosby way of squeezing UKIP could end up reinfo
Has this been mentioned before? The field work is a month old and only 850ish polled. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23221563 So to get the opinions of more than 800 Conservative members - as opposed to supporters - is a rare treat. YouGov identified the members from its previous polling work and it surveyed them… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-electi
Fascinating post from the Guardian Rochester live blog: Kelly Tolhurst is doing an event in the constituency this afternoon. But it’s running late and so I’m afraid I’m going to miss it. After a fleeting visit, I’m not an expert on Rochester politics, but I know a bit more about the byelection than I did nine hours ago.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the LAB leadership as Liz Kendall gets closer in th
Labour new intake background - Part I Karin Smyth "manager with the NHS Bristol Clinical Commissioning Group.In the past I have run an MP’s office and been the director of an NHS Trust" Colleen Fletcher full time Cllr. First elected in 1992, she's 60, so maybe already retired. Latest job: Customer Services Office at Orbit…