Search
-
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the EU has bungled Brexit
What was that reasonably clear vision of the final destination? Mansion House? Already divisive. As has been well rehearsed on here, May's error was not to have erected a big tent at the outset which would have de-partisanised the negotiations and thereby made them more GE-proof. Trying to negotiate a multi-year deal when… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave o
This is a good post. At 11% it's clearly value. However, I cannot see the House of Commons permitting this. They have two main mechanisms for halting exit on 29th March. The first is revoking Article 50. Whilst unlikely, if push comes to shove I'm certain they would do this rather than crash out with No Deal. The other is… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, Gene
The UK opposition spent several years telling everyone that the housing, health and education systems could not cope with demand; that wages were being suppressed and that bosses were profiteering. It really doesn't take much of a leap of the imagination for people to then ask, "well, why are you letting in hundreds of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings new
Interesting thought. To my mind the problem is estimating the degree to which the Unionist parties (sensu Scotland) have tried to mess up GE2015 by confusing it with indyref. That would perhaps have particular impact on Berwickshire because of its strong Tory/LD content. Also presumably a lot of retired incomers with their… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now BuzzWord bingo on Trump’s Inaugural speech
I recognise and understand almost all of the content of that article. The young do have it very tough. But, the Left have pitifully few answers either. The best answer I could come up with would have been to cut national insurance for employers, not to restrict housing benefit to the over 25s, give greater student loans,… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest slot: Polling analysis finds Labour Loses Supporters
The comments are interesting. This can't happen when we are in the EU of course we have been assured. I doubt they will ever be returned hence more will come. Of course controlled immigration is fine and welcome. This illegal entry is not and how much has this rescue just cost the taxpayer and the charitable contributions.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more o
FPT @Pulpstar They exclude mortgages, Pulpstar. Main reasons for separating the two is that mortgages are secured (and therefore are a different type of risk to the lending institution) and, more importantly, that the funds disbursed are (mostly) used for investment rather than consumption expenditure. Anyway here goes.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot
"The outlook in England appears to be somewhat better than in Scotland, particularly in the East and West Midlands where manufacturing investment is increasing, supported by local government investment and a buoyant housing market. We expect the improved market conditions to allow some cost recovery through increased… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron resigns
I genuinely don't think that the UK will exist in five years time. The Yugoslavia comparisons being made about the EU are looking in the wrong direction. After a morning when the UK economy has been utterly bitch-slapped, and in the knowledge that it is going to take at least a year for any clarity on the future to emerge,… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary moves much closer to the nomination following Joe B
I think this probably best sums up Biden withdrawing: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38492 Was personally hoping that Biden would stand, and Obama certainly seemed to be encouraging him behind the curtain, but the family bereavement seems to have played a role. It would be a sad day indeed in just over a year's… -
Re: At last! Positive front pages for the PM but will the polls turn? – politicalbetting.com
Not even a journalist, but a columnist - paid a few grand each week, for an hour’s work that can be done from anywhere, and has been for two or three decades. Her personal effect of any restrictions, will be limited to her inability to winter in Tuscany or weekend in Barcelona. -
Re: Some of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs – politicalbetting.com
I am not any of these people, and yet, weirdly, I did once meet LadyG and Stuart Dickson, in a "dwarf and horse sauna" in Jakarta. Anyone who has been there will know what I mean I was there to sell my flints, is my excuse -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Spotting the Difference – what really matters to Johnson when
Boris lost me at Jenrick. A slimy good for nothing with his nose in the trough, shades of a less funny Alan B'stard. As housing minister he's been rubbish on leasehold reform and the cladding scandal and the fact he is a landlord to boot makes me think he's not fit for purpose. I'm a lifelong Conservative voter. But I can… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » COVID-19: With England faring the worst in Europe Boris’s TV a
That says a huge amount about you as a person. I more than probably anyone alive on this forum know death up close and personal. And I don't take the deaths casually at all. I have been heavily critical of the Government's early sloppiness. However, we cannot sit in our houses for the rest of our lives. The damage to the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest
Then you have the legitimate double entries - students, people with multiple homes - until recently you could add holiday home owners and landlords. Then there are those who have moved house and asked to be registered at the new address (as you would when an election looms) who are still on the register at the old address.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson now evens to succeed TMay as PM
> @DavidL said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > > > "No Deal Planning' I… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May doesn’t have a Willie and it shows. She urgently a
Couple of dates in diary on the Foreign Affairs front in the US. October 18-20th: start of main ground offensive on Mosul, IS strong point in Iraq and significant embarrassment to any player against it. Obama really wants a nice foreign policy ender to his presidency to stand at a lectern. Since his hilarious plans to… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the Ge
Not strictly true. When there have been previous motions of no confidence, the monarch has not of his/her own motion gone looking for candidates in the House of Commons. In 1979 and 1924 (October), the PM advised the Queen/King (and his advice was accepted) that Parliament should be dissolved. In 1924 (January), the Prime… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nearly of third of current LAB voters not sure that Corbyn wou
There was nothing at all wrong with PFI, when used properly and negotiated sensibly. However, Blair and Brown were completely uninterested in value for money, they just wanted to be able to boast about zillions of pounds of 'investment'. Unsurprisingly, the civil servants followed the lead which their political masters… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems are coming off life-support: something else fo
I don't know if a thread has changed my mind as much as the last one. I think that in the case of Trump, the social shame factor over live telephone polling may exist, and I have adjusted my beliefs to assess his chances against Clinton as being significantly better than I thought they were. For now. However, this is good…