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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time for Labour to push back against Tory plastic patriot
It should be noted that the Conservatives are not only in a much better position than not only 1997 or 1992 but even 2010 in large parts of the country. Where they are doing much worse is in London, other cities and anywhere with high numbers of students. Now part of the decline in urban areas is because of demographic… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn to quit or not to quit on June 9th, that is the questio
No, the problem is that the ageing population means that all pension arrangements are costing more, and that the government's response so far has been to try and save money solely by retarding the payment age. And I don't think the issue is the wealth difference between pensioners and those aged 50, the latter being at the… -
Re: We potentially are over four years away from the next election, a lot can happen between now & then
The Ukranian figures for Russian casualties are in the 1,500 - 2,000 per day range, and have been for several months now. They have plenty of videos to back up the numbers, most of which you won’t want to watch. The NorKs fighting in Kursk in particular have had a total schocker, 10k men lasted about three weeks before… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At exactly this stage before GE2017 punters rated TMay’s major
You might be able to argue that they are cuts but cuts are not the same as 'austerity'. And this typifies all the claims about 'austerity' - a failure to see the wood for the trees ie lots of comments about rough sleepers or food banks or zero hour contracts or some specific cut in government spending. While ignoring that… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwh
@Socrates - So what will UKIP do about the way in which children's homes are funded, organised and staffed, and how will they keep vulnerable kids out of homes in the first place? What is their policy that is so different to the ones that have been pursued by the intellectually and morally corrupt elite that has been… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Small minds and Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn’s latest gambit
The problem is that he has (apart from many other faults!) a long history of anti-europeanism. Since the referendum he has been dragged reluctantly to the point where he grudgingly agrees a further referendum as the price of power. He cannot be trusted on the issue. This is just horse trading over who gets the role of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get
The frightening thing is not so much that the entire Times website has gone down - these things happen - but that no one seems capable of fixing it even after two hours. You might have imagined that an organisation such as this would have some sort of back up system to come to the rescue immediately, but seemingly not . I… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : June 4th 2015
In my view they did. Labour were just not doing well enough. One of my biggest betting regrets ever is that I took more notice of opinion polls than the local election results. The last election should have been my best ever gambling result as 5 years ago I was convinced that ed couldn't win and with the lib dems on 8% the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continu
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”." “And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist." Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lord Adonis guide to predicting elections: Best leader win
Yes. That's the big risk with subjective scoring like this. Ideally, you'd plot the ratings against polling - though you'd need both a consistent question and reliable methodology. That said, ratings can and should change. Attlee, for example, certainly captured the spirit of the times in 1945 but that moment passed quite… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why many pollsters overstated LAB so much at the May Euros and
If the EU had negotiated the exact same deal with Labour, it'd have been hailed as a triumph by Corbyn and co. I'm not certain the Tory front bench would have opposed it in quite the same way Labour has... The tribal Labour view that anything Tory = BAD is simply stronger in Labour than plenty of places elsewhere. The… -
Re: Polls like this make a confidence vote more likely – politicalbetting.com
They were for coat pockets, IIRC. Pocket pistols were very popular - zillions made and many still around. The impression that all flintlocks were huge has been helped by Hollywood. They tend to use horse pistols as generic pistols for "period" films. Much as they equip modern heroes & villains, very often, with huge modern… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Geoffrey Howe RIP – Remember this sensational speech that e
I'm sure she is and that she does. She is also a professional politician, as she has put what must be hundreds or thousands of hours into high profile political activity including running for the highest level of political office we have, for almost a decade despite only being in her mid 20s. She is more able than I, I… -
Re: Huge blow for the SNP in new Scottish YouGov poll – politicalbetting.com
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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight w
Blimey. The modern history of France does not suggest that this is a nation with adaptable political institutions, nor that its vaunted traditions of liberty, equality and fraternity count for much when the chips are down. Monarchy has violently given way to revolution, regicide, restoration, empire, a succession of failed… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unite has grown too big for its own good
@tim Ed Miliband has hardly bust a gut on Falkirk: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/05/ed-miliband-unite-falkirk-selection "Miliband's cautious response has left him vulnerable to Tory attacks that he has been slow to confront Unite. Officials acknowledged on Friday that Miliband knew about the allegations about… -
Re: Can Rishi possibly turn it round? – politicalbetting.com
Our village's Catholic priest has been campaigning for this since he assumed the job. His house (right opposite the church the Anglicans took from us 500 years ago) is now the only building in the village still displaying an external Christmas tree: till last Friday there were dozens. With Lent almost always starting in… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd now clear third favourite in the CON leader bettig
I've been playing it for the last few hours - it's definitely a game that won't be for everyone and its on a very slow boil, but my initial impression is if it lives up to its promise it could be very good indeed, even though I am not normally a fan of particularly 'realistic' games or mods in things like Fallout. Of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove could be set to play the role of Brutus to Dav
What have you been smoking ? I put a flyer through some busy professionals door, saying I will put together his flat pack for £20 an hour, and he phones me up and say he has two bedroom cabinets, how long will that take, I say 2 hours, £40 and he says "Your on!". Where is the dishonesty, a clear offer was made and… -
Re: This poll feels like a reflection of name recognition – politicalbetting.com
"Starmer is back in the headlines for turning up at a toboggan run and being ushered past a queue of holidaymakers who had been waiting for a reported three hours. While their teenage kids took the ride, Starmer was then driven down the hill to meet them at the end. According to observers, a crescendo of ‘boos’ went up,…