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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs to outperform the Tories in Thursday’s by-election is
A bigger impact, IMHO, would come from a rising savings rate thanks to lower house prices. I'm also not sure there is much hard evidence that a falling exchange rate actually benefits exports that much. The Euro has been much stronger than Sterling in the post 2008 period - from 2.10 to 1.33 for the Pound, versus 1.40 to… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can Vladimir Putin make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister?
So, wave after wave of immigration is all falling in the same places? Commonwealth immigration has has decades to settle, and European A8 has had just over a decade while Romanians and Bulgarians have only been allowed in for three or four years. I would point out that up to the late 90s Commonwealth immigration was part… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Douglas Carswell is my 100/1 tip for next Speaker of the House
Toby Helm, in The Grauniad: Theresa May has sealed a major diplomatic coup by becoming the first European leader to secure a meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House.... ...May, who unlike Trump is known for measuring her every word, has said she will hold very “frank” discussions with the president and has… -
Re: How not to a-tractor floating voters – politicalbetting.com
Healey has just made a (non-)statement in the House in reply to a question about these rumours. There is no prospect whatsoever of a nuclear war over this. Storm Shadows have been used previously into Crimea, which Putin claims to believe is part of Russia, with no meaningful response, never mind one which would destroy… -
Re: Vance is looking like a hindrance – politicalbetting.com
Seems similar to recent events: Hundreds of protesters attacked a cereal cafe in east London on Saturday night, daubing the word “scum” on the shop window and setting fire to an effigy of a police officer. Riot police were called in to defend the Cereal Killer Cafe in Shoreditch after it was targeted by a large crowd of… -
Re: VONCing Boris – politicalbetting.com
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Re: Will the Shrewsbury MP retain his seat at the next election? – politicalbetting.com
Or this, just today: "A hospital has finally admitted a woman may have been raped by a transgender patient after denying the possibility of an attack for almost a year, the House of Lords has heard. "When police were called to the unnamed hospital in England, they were allegedly told by staff that 'there was no male' on… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why to LAB strategists the fight with the Tories is their l
'Scottish independence: Better Together targets voter 'tribes''The group campaigning for a no vote in Scotland's independence referendum has said it will embark on the most sophisticated targeting of voters seen in British political history. Pro-union Better Together has launched its new "Patriot" system. It will divide… -
Re: Reshuffle talk is in the air but Reeves is safe but not Phillipson – politicalbetting.com
Some good economic news for Rachel Reeves. Real wage growth has been strong. "Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), was 2.5% for regular pay and 2.4% for total pay. Annual average regular earnings growth for the private sector… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first of the final polls from the most accurate online fir
Edinburgh West became a LibDem stronghold, until taken in 2015 by Michelle Thomson for the SNP, who has been charged with fraudulent mortgage applications. That in the process, she bought up ex-council house properties at well below market value and resold them the same day, to either herself, her relatives, friends and… -
Re: Midterms 2022: The writing’s on the wall – politicalbetting.com
A value would be made up. I saw the mirror said “up to £25k per week”. * But actually the specific value really doesn’t matter. It was a lot. A big expense that Boris have had to pay. Goldsmith doesn’t really care since it is only theoretical lost income (the house isn’t rented out anyway) and he’s rich enough not to… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Delusions
Do I really have to go thru this again? For the last twenty years and possibly before that, the Civil Service *has* been moving people out of London. Newport and Leeds being prime examples. This has been going on for so long it's a plot-point in "Yes Prime Minister" for pity's sake. Google "the Government Hubs scheme".… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two pollsters, three polls, and UKIP shares between 16% and
As I said, the man is a charlatan, and he will continue to maintain the almost impossible is not merely plausible but likely until he is forced to accept reality. Bear in mind he has been dragged kicking and screaming to his current position from his more extravagant Europhilia in 2010-2011. Cameron's tactic, as in all… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set t
The PM needs to resign, and recommend a successor who has the confidence of the House. It is this that it has been floated he would refuse to do. The Queen technically can't "invite" anyone off Her own bat. Nor does she dismiss PMs. By the currently existing convention that is... -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris would be making a big mistake denying Bercow a peerage
Help to buy is a subsidy for house builders (and by extension, existing owners), nothing more, nothing less. Free market economics would have dictated the price of housing had to fall, help to buy kept demand buoyant. It's a terrible piece of market intervention. Help to buy has to be spent on new build properties (who… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the CON race continues to be about character them it might
This is a unique occurrence. Never before has a PM been appointed by the membership of a political party (which in effect is what you are proposing) rather than endorsed by parliament or in a general election. It raises enormous constitutional issues which the Queen and her advisers will be very aware of. Mrs May is not… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s Straw Man
"Discussions in a literal hot-house." Except it wasn't. Chequers is a C16th Manor House and the rooms are actually very cool even during a heatwave. And this neatly illustrates the trouble with this article: speculation and guesswork. Until or unless ministers leak further details to the Sunday papers we remain in the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever happened to the summer LAB leadership contest which l
I think the assumption that the military have 'taken over' might be a bit of a stretch. Certainly Kelly and McMaster seem to be in the ascendant, but it will be interesting to watch how long McMaster in particular lasts, as he has steadily been removing Trump loyalists from the NSC...… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dave was doing OK at PMQs but he raised Unite just too many
Aside from the ludicrous idea that Labour would actually do this after their infantile Pathfinder Project, let us look at the figures: £120 billion for 1.2 million 'homes' gives £100,000 per home. Considering the average house price in the UK is currently over £230,000 (1), you are looking at some rather cheap houses. It… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next Chancellor of the Exchequer betting
Your analogy is dodgy and your aphorism is trite. Brexit is not a matter of internal policy: it's a matter of foreign policy and it can only responsibly be realised as a result of successful negotiations with foreign powers, in particular regarding trade and the movement of people. Britain can't have its own way in all of…
