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Trump sliding, Cruz and Kasich coming in on Betfair

Cruz will win Wisconsin.

Quite why Kasich's odds are coming in is a total mystery.

FPT:

SouthamObserver said:

scotslass said:

TCPoliticalBetting

Not sure I agree that a decline in SNP/Nicola is inevitable even in the medium term.

The SNP has risen substantially in popularity since it gained office in 2007. Salmond stayed at positive popularity ratings throughout his eight years in office, almost unheard of in a democratic system. However, Sturgeon shows every sign of doing the same. The new powers will not change that dynamic since the SNP have sensibly avoided the daftness of Labour and Greens in suggesting hiking every tax rate (or the indirect tax bombshells of the Tories in £9,000 tuition fees) and instead opted for a relatively mild redistribution of income tax and Council Tax towards the lower paid.

The NATS retain a radical cutting edge on the issues of Trident, renewable power, land reform and of course independence. They are despite an incredibly hostile old fashioned press a competent Government by UK standards - compare for example their solution on saving Scottish steel to the total confusion of the Tories. On that formula barring accidents (and events dear boy events) the SNP is set for a further long run of dominance.

The SNP owns the flag and has made sure to do nothing that will alienate those who vote in elections. That's why it has said plenty about food banks and austerity, but has done nothing practical to alleviate either. As a result, it will govern for many years to come. Whether that actually leads to independence, though, is another thing entirely.

'Not doing very much' is actually not that bad a government policy.

The question remains how long the Zoomers can put up with the gap between the 'social democratic' rhetoric and the 'evil bastard Tory' policy.......

Is this definitely a winner takes all state? I thought someone on here said last night that it wasn't as simple as that.

Charles said:

I hadn't realised Madison was so close to Chicago.

I'm been avoiding going there because I thought it was near Dakota or something!

Thanks

I hadn't realised the bit of land above Wisconsin was Michigan, I though Michigan was just the peninsula.

Isn't Wisconsin more of a Missouri/South Carolina type state with it's delegate maths (Winner takes most ?)

JonathanD said:

Charles said:

I hadn't realised Madison was so close to Chicago.

I'm been avoiding going there because I thought it was near Dakota or something!

Thanks

I hadn't realised the bit of land above Wisconsin was Michigan, I though Michigan was just the peninsula.

I wonder why Michigan does extend across there.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump sliding, Cruz and Kasich coming in on Betfair

As I said for weeks now the only sure bet is Winner Democrats.
The odds on that are still good.

Sadiq Khan's bid to be London Mayor was dealt a blow today as hard-Left activists admitted backing him to “strengthen” Jeremy Corbyn.

The Standard can reveal that leaders of the controversial Momentum group told activists to support the Labour candidate because defeat in London on May 5 would “undermine” his party’s leader. Tories seized on the revelation by taunting: “Vote Khan, Get Corbyn.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-hardleft-plot-to-back-sadiq-khan-in-bid-to-strengthen-corbyn-a3215066.html

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump sliding, Cruz and Kasich coming in on Betfair

As I said for weeks now the only sure bet is Winner Democrats.
The odds on that are still good.

There's still the FBI.

williamglenn said:

Rubio still wants to be a player - http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/rubio-makes-unprecedented-bid-keep-delegates-contested-convention-n547646

It denies Trump and Cruz a few Alaska delegates.

And keeps him in the race.

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

Isn't Wisconsin more of a Missouri/South Carolina type state with it's delegate maths (Winner takes most ?)

It is.
But if Cruz wins by a double digit margin you can expect him to take all delegates.

The rules are discussed here:

http://frontloading.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_26.html

My head hurts.

Good afternoon, everyone.

The most annoying thing is the way alot of people decide "Trump" and the GOP nominee are interchangeable, until it isn't. And then people are 'surprised' or whatever...

tlg86 said:

Is this definitely a winner takes all state? I thought someone on here said last night that it wasn't as simple as that.

It isn't as simple as that. The delegates are divided by state (winner takes all), and congressional districts (the same). Realistically, the winner will probably get 75% of the total in even a worse case scenario (the state, plus half the CDs), and more likely 85-90%. Given the 10+% lead for Cruz, it is quite possible he wins the vast majority of the CDs.

Pulpstar said:

The most annoying thing is the way alot of people decide "Trump" and the GOP nominee are interchangeable, until it isn't. And then people are 'surprised' or whatever...

I said that Trump was going to have a very tough month from March 15th until N.Y on April 19th.

If Cruz weren't a Senator from Texas, or Kasich Governor of Ohio, then Trump would have been as a sure thing as Hillary.
Given that they both tend to win and lose the same states, with the exceptions of the home states of their rivals.

It's a pity for Sanders that his home state is tiny Vermont, though that gave him a win in N.H.

Wisconsin is an Open primary, which in past contests has helped Trump and disadvantaged Cruz.

Whether that will be the case this time remains to be seen. Wisconsin polling is sparse but seems to show Cruz ahead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_republican_presidential_primary-3763.html

More generally, with his abortion comments Trump has probably tested to destruction the theory that you can shoot from the hip at random targets without any electoral downside.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sadiq Khan's bid to be London Mayor was dealt a blow today as hard-Left activists admitted backing him to “strengthen” Jeremy Corbyn.

The Standard can reveal that leaders of the controversial Momentum group told activists to support the Labour candidate because defeat in London on May 5 would “undermine” his party’s leader. Tories seized on the revelation by taunting: “Vote Khan, Get Corbyn.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-hardleft-plot-to-back-sadiq-khan-in-bid-to-strengthen-corbyn-a3215066.html

He can always turn to his local Imam for advice...

http://order-order.com/2016/03/31/sadiqs-personal-emails-to-extremist-imam/

South Africa's highest court has ruled that President Jacob Zuma violated the constitution when he failed to repay some of the government money used to upgrade his private home.

An anti-corruption body, known as the public protector, ruled in 2014 that $23m (£15m) had been spent on his rural home in Nkandla in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal province.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35932286

You want to hear his opinion on immigrants....he makes Donald Trump sound like a limp wristed Guardianista...

Ronnie biographer said at 5'1", he was the shortest commissioned officer.

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ronnie Corbett has died.

My favourite The Two Ronnies sketch

http://youtu.be/y0C59pI_ypQ

Sad news. And a bit spooky, as only yesterday I was chatting with a work colleague about the two ronnies.

The 5ft 1 Inch Ronnie Corbett would be greatly amused at being called a giant

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/715497298084687877

Richard_Nabavi said:

Wisconsin is an Open primary, which in past contests has helped Trump and disadvantaged Cruz.

Whether that will be the case this time remains to be seen. Wisconsin polling is sparse but seems to show Cruz ahead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_republican_presidential_primary-3763.html

More generally, with his abortion comments Trump has probably tested to destruction the theory that you can shoot from the hip at random targets without any electoral downside.

He should have made those abortion comments just before Iowa, or before Super Tuesday, because those opinions are popular with religious conservatives.

But in Wisconsin and the states that follow it there are not many religious anti-abortion conservatives. It's smart politics for places like Kansas but not for places like California.

Politically the timing was the problem not the substance, especially when there are many NeverTrumps who hold views even more extreme:

https://twitter.com/Green_Footballs/status/715255477769142272

So right now you can enjoy the spectacle of anti-abortionists defending abortion just because they hate Trump.

Cameron and Osborne on the wrong side of this. But how will that play out?

"However, our next question did uncover huge differences between the two sides. We listed ten possible causes of our economic problems and asked people to say which two or three they blame most. The top three picked by the “in” voters are completely different from the three picked by “out” voters:
For “in” voters, the top three are: British banks, the Conservative-led government since 2010 and growing inequality.
For “out” voters they are: EU rules and regulations, immigrants willing to work for low wages and the last Labour government."

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Cameron and Osborne on the wrong side of this. But how will that play out?

"However, our next question did uncover huge differences between the two sides. We listed ten possible causes of our economic problems and asked people to say which two or three they blame most. The top three picked by the “in” voters are completely different from the three picked by “out” voters:
For “in” voters, the top three are: British banks, the Conservative-led government since 2010 and growing inequality.
For “out” voters they are: EU rules and regulations, immigrants willing to work for low wages and the last Labour government."

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/

Is that not simply representative of the fact that overall In = Left, Out = Right.

New poll from N.Y.

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/715487302412165120

It's still 20 days till voting there.
Trump's odds in the betting markets will get a boost after N.Y votes, but until then it looks like it's all grim news for him.

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

The FBI has offered to unlock another iPhone for police after revealing it could access the handset used by San Bernardino killer Syed Farook.

Police in Arkansas wish to unlock an iPhone and iPod belonging to two teenagers accused of killing a couple, according to the Associated Press (AP).

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35933239

On topic, I am finding this GOP race hard to call.

Trump is going to finish way clear of the field.

But

He is going out of his way to give every incentive to the party hierachy so if it's a contested convention, he may well lose the nomination.

But

The next-in-line is Cruz, who is almost as bad a candidate and would perhaps make a worse president (not that either is likely to get the chance)

But

Can the GOP really skip both leading candidates?

But

Cruz might have a little local difficulty

But

The mainstream media seems to be keeping schtum on it, Trump may have difficulty using it against him and Kasich seems disinclined to.

Also

Is Trump's refusal to back any other nominee is an excuse to pass over him or to give in to him

Because

He won't be able to register as a third-party candidate in a lot of states, as the deadlines for filing will have passed by late August in some, and others have rules that don't permit candidates from primaries to contest the general for any other party.

But

Might he run as a spoiler anyway, where he can?

And

so on and so on.

Philip_Thompson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Cameron and Osborne on the wrong side of this. But how will that play out?

"However, our next question did uncover huge differences between the two sides. We listed ten possible causes of our economic problems and asked people to say which two or three they blame most. The top three picked by the “in” voters are completely different from the three picked by “out” voters:
For “in” voters, the top three are: British banks, the Conservative-led government since 2010 and growing inequality.
For “out” voters they are: EU rules and regulations, immigrants willing to work for low wages and the last Labour government."

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/

I
Nice to see our 'Conservative' PM siding with the economic flat earthers of the left...

FrancisUrquhart said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/31/paul-dacre-eu-subsidies-hypocrisy-daily-mail-euro-lies

Fun little piece...Polly going both barrels on hypocrisy, owning a 2nd home, pretending to represent a class of people you don't actually spend anytime associating with...

Polly has a point though. I was speaking to an elderly chap after Osborne's 'Granny Tax'. Egged on by the Daily Mail, he was bewailing the 'fact' that the treacherous Tories had rendered him a pauper. He later discovered the measures in that budget had made him better off.

Ronnie Corbett:

I was just in the local park when a young woman in her late teens / early twenties who was listening to the radio on her phone said: "Is it true Ronnie Corbett has died?"

I said I didn't know, and a few minutes later she was gently sobbing.

It seems odd that such a young woman would react so strongly to the death of an entertainer whose best years were well before she was born.

RIP.

Patrick said:

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

Yikes.
7% of GDP is a new all time record, it's on the same level the USA reached just before they crashed in 2008.

The famous large double deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit) really point to an upcoming crash if there is not a major correction in economic policy.

NickPalmer said:

Sanders making real progress in New York on that poll - he was miles behind before. I know that he's technically dead from the figures, but if he did win Wisconsin (likely) and then New York (conceivable?) and then California (in that scenario likely), are the super-delegates really going to stay solid?

It must be fun to be a politician in California, which always votes almost last after the winners for both parties are clear, to suddenly acquire important significance, perhaps for both parties.

Sanders problem is simply that there is no primary where he might expect a blow out win given the PR nature of the Democrat allocation of delegates. He's just too far behind.

Speedy said:

Patrick said:

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

Yikes.
7% of GDP is a new all time record, it's on the same level the USA reached just before they crashed in 2008.

The famous large double deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit) really point to an upcoming crash if there is not a major correction in economic policy.

Don't worry, we're in safe hands with George Osborne running the show...

Ronnie Corbett – quite a year, as another of my childhood greats takes his last bow. RIP.

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/715507299213819905

Patrick said:

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

Yes , a weaker Pound does not mean the Pound in you pocket is worth less . Hmmm

Patrick said:

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

Mr. Patrick,

I have been hearing about the need for a weaker pound for as long as I can remember, and, overall, in my lifetime the pound has become a lot weaker as has our industrial base. The plea that a weak pound helps exporters seems reasonable and is frequently parrotted; unfortunately it seems never to work out that way.

Contrast the UK's long term performance with that of Germany. The latter, until the advent of the Euro, built one of the most successful exporting economies on the planet on the basis of an ever strengthening currency. If Germany can do it why can't we?

I suspect the answer lies in the piss poor management and short-termism of our managerial class, but I stand to be corrected.

Casino_Royale said:

The irony of Trump is that if he'd been a little more measured and less unhinged he'd actually make a very good candidate.

He touches states and parts of the Democrat electorate that other Republican establishment/tea party candidates really don't, without alienating too much of the base, and I think his business experience/"can't be bought" lines were powerful ones. His policy thoughts on things like healthcare were brave and well thought through too.

Unfortunately he truly has NO filter, and insulting everyone with no diplomacy or judgment as to when to rein it in, advocating petty violence against disrupters, as well as taking anti-immigration rhetoric to the max, may have done for him.

I think there was a poll a few weeks ago which showed that if Trump was the GOP Nominee, it boosted Democrat turnout.

Don't worry, we're in safe hands with George Osborne running the show...

Ozzy has made the easy calls and none of the hard ones. He now has no political capital left to make them - having pissed it away needlessly on pasties, nobbling the disabled, Remain, etc, etc. How are we going to wipe out these two deficits? I don't see any 'in it together' major efforts coming along. There are too many ringfenced areas, too many sacred cows. Pensioners, int'l aid, EU subs, NHS, etc - such that all the heavy lifting is pushed onto a far too narrow slice of the economy.

What will happen is that he (we) will fail and then the market will impose the necessary corrections. This is rarely good. At some point UK debt will get expensive. The Pound will collapse. Austerity will become real.

'At some point UK debt will get expensive. The Pound will collapse. Austerity will become real'

Care to take a guess at when that will be?

Danny565 said:

Not too surprised to see Sanders closing the gap a fair way in New York.

I've been a bit confused to see people talking about the Northeast primaries as guaranteed Clinton blowouts -- it's the most left-wing part of the country, and most of the states are whiter than the national average too (though admittedly the fact most of them are closed to independents harms Sanders). Sanders will give her a good run for her money in a lot of them I think, though not enough to actually win the nomination.

Hillary voters seem to be all absentee whereas Bernie needs big turnouts. Thankfully the Democrats seem to be doing their best to stop that for my anti-Bernie book (See Arizona)

I've got faith in the USA's most cynical political machine.

Patrick said:

Don't worry, we're in safe hands with George Osborne running the show...

Ozzy has made the easy calls and none of the hard ones. He now has no political capital left to make them - having pissed it away needlessly on pasties, nobbling the disabled, Remain, etc, etc. How are we going to wipe out these two deficits? I don't see any 'in it together' major efforts coming along. There are too many ringfenced areas, too many sacred cows. Pensioners, int'l aid, EU subs, NHS, etc - such that all the heavy lifting is pushed onto a far too narrow slice of the economy.

What will happen is that he (we) will fail and then the market will impose the necessary corrections. This is rarely good. At some point UK debt will get expensive. The Pound will collapse. Austerity will become real.

Debt will one day be more expensive but ...

The deficit is going down and trending towards a surplus.
Household debt to GDP is also going down.

The opposite was true for both of these before the last crash. We are going in the right direction at least.

Philip_Thompson said:

Patrick said:

Don't worry, we're in safe hands with George Osborne running the show...

Ozzy has made the easy calls and none of the hard ones. He now has no political capital left to make them - having pissed it away needlessly on pasties, nobbling the disabled, Remain, etc, etc. How are we going to wipe out these two deficits? I don't see any 'in it together' major efforts coming along. There are too many ringfenced areas, too many sacred cows. Pensioners, int'l aid, EU subs, NHS, etc - such that all the heavy lifting is pushed onto a far too narrow slice of the economy.

What will happen is that he (we) will fail and then the market will impose the necessary corrections. This is rarely good. At some point UK debt will get expensive. The Pound will collapse. Austerity will become real.

Debt will one day be more expensive but ...

The deficit is going down and trending towards a surplus.
Household debt to GDP is also going down.

The opposite was true for both of these before the last crash. We are going in the right direction at least.

The one thing which hasn't gone in the right direction to prepare for the day debt becomes more expensive is house prices.

Martin Lewis gives his two pennies on the EU ref:

"Dear Martin, can you please let us know the straight facts of what'll happen if we leave the EU?"

I've been swamped with many people asking me this question. So I want to answer.... "no I can't!" And if anyone else tells you they can, they are a liar.

The EU issue isn't black or white. I find it very frustrating that most politicians who are pro-EU say all elements of the EU are good; and most politicians who are anti say all elements are bad. Neither is true, like the rest of life it's a mix.

There are no simple answers. What'll happen if we leave is uncertain. What will happen if we stay is more certain - though still not without some questions and risks.

Don't read 'uncertain' as bad. Read it simply as uncertain.

It may be that leaving makes the UK a tiger economy in control of its own destiny, and we reap the benefits; or we end up on the outskirts of everything, ignored and struggling with trade. Or more likely somewhere in between.

You have to make this decision based on your political attitude to Europe, how risk averse you are and what your gut instinct tells you.

And even after that you need to accept you may make a good decision and have a bad outcome. Or make a bad decision then have a good one.

Martin

HurstLlama said:

Speedy said:

Patrick said:

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

Yikes.
7% of GDP is a new all time record, it's on the same level the USA reached just before they crashed in 2008.

The famous large double deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit) really point to an upcoming crash if there is not a major correction in economic policy.

If you are correct, Mr. Speedy, prepare for a crash. I think we get a recession every ten years or so, thus the next one should be due in 2017/18, and George Osborne is not going to change tack before then.

The one good thing about such a recession/crash is that it will finally lay bare Osborne's hopeless stewardship of the economy and his failure to "fix the roof while the sun shines" and thus finally put paid to his political ambitions.

Osborne's not been looking after the pennies (Billions) (Screwing up disability, delays on tax credit changes) recently, so the (pounds) trillions won't really look after themselves..

rottenborough said:

HurstLlama said:

Speedy said:

Patrick said:

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

Yikes.
7% of GDP is a new all time record, it's on the same level the USA reached just before they crashed in 2008.

The famous large double deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit) really point to an upcoming crash if there is not a major correction in economic policy.

If you are correct, Mr. Speedy, prepare for a crash. I think we get a recession every ten years or so, thus the next one should be due in 2017/18, and George Osborne is not going to change tack before then.

The one good thing about such a recession/crash is that it will finally lay bare Osborne's hopeless stewardship of the economy and his failure to "fix the roof while the sun shines" and thus finally put paid to his political ambitions.

William Keegan in Observer has been banging on about current account deficit for months and months.

LALALALA

George isn't listening

lets buy more stuff from China.

HurstLlama said:

Speedy said:

Patrick said:

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

Yikes.
7% of GDP is a new all time record, it's on the same level the USA reached just before they crashed in 2008.

The famous large double deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit) really point to an upcoming crash if there is not a major correction in economic policy.

If you are correct, Mr. Speedy, prepare for a crash. I think we get a recession every ten years or so, thus the next one should be due in 2017/18, and George Osborne is not going to change tack before then.

The one good thing about such a recession/crash is that it will finally lay bare Osborne's hopeless stewardship of the economy and his failure to "fix the roof while the sun shines" and thus finally put paid to his political ambitions.

4king dire numbers Mr L.

totally avoidable if action is taken, but then you look at how they handled the steel crisis.....

House price problem = 100% due to insane political restrictions on the supply of land (aka Planning Laws). The trouble is that to resolve will require upsetting Middle England - the ones George needs to get elected party leader. Ditto pensioners, esp wealthy pensioners.

Charles said:

MarkSenior said:

Patrick said:

We urgently need a weaker Pound as we reach a new all time high current account deficit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35931968

Roll on the Brexit!

Yes , a weaker Pound does not mean the Pound in you pocket is worth less . Hmmm

You're right, for most people it doesn't.

For me, with US dollar liabilities and sterling income it is a little bit of a bind, but I suspect that your sympathy for people in my position may be limited

Harold Wilson woz right!