politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos Referendum phone poll has the REMAIN lead down to

Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies.

The disconnect is enormous. The new elite still think the oiks are vulgar and stupid.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.

Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.

Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

I am not sure it is that binary. Less competition also means higher prices and less need to provide a decent service. That has an impact on the bottom half of society most and the lowest earners most of all.

So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

JonathanD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

JonathanD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

JonathanD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

Here's the full text

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation

Some ludicrous claims in there.

Which ones?

Starter for 10

The cost of flights is down by 40% thanks to EU action...

Possibly EasyJet know what they are talking about but I guess you know better

" “The single aviation area gives airlines freedom to fly across Europe,” an easyJet spokesman explained, “and since its introduction passengers have seen fares fall by around 40 per cent and routes increase by 180 per cent.”"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/how-air-fares-might-rise-if-there-was-a-brexit/

I know it costs so much to fly Ryan Air or Easy Jet to non EU destinations.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Plato_Says said:

Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

What's left?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

So we are told.

This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.

I must have missed that.

It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037

Thanks. I disagree with that.

That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.

I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.

Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

I am not sure it is that binary. Less competition also means higher prices and less need to provide a decent service. That has an impact on the bottom half of society most and the lowest earners most of all.

So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

No, I am saying that if you reduce competition you end up raising prices and lowering quality of service. For what it's worth, I think that there are many, many people in the top 5% who are worth nothing like the salaries they are paid.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

Hmm Mr N I'm afraid I don't agree with that, your soulmate Mr Meeks is a good example of one who's quite happy to throw accusations around so it's not just on one side only.

The staleness of the EUref arguments is that there are no knock out blows ; in simple terms nobody knows and everybody is spinning.

Mr Meeks throws different accusations around!

You are right in your second paragraph. It's a judgement call on a set of unknowns, and sensible, honest people, even of broadly the same political position in other matters, will form different views on the same facts. That is the point I keep repeating.

Unfortunately telling people they have taken leave of their senses tends not to convey that sentiment. :-)

We often have the impression that these people were not just in Syria as sentries or to be trained in the use of weapons, but that they took part in maimings, killings and bomb attacks," German Public Prosecutor General Peter Frank told the Süddeutsche Zeitung...

Frank added that prosecutors are currently bringing around 130 terrorism-related cases against 200 individual defendants, most of them alleged members or supporters of foreign terrorist groups.

http://www.thelocal.de/20160329/germany-struggling-to-jail-isis-fighters

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Plato_Says said:

Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

What's left?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

So we are told.

This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.

I must have missed that.

It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037

Thanks. I disagree with that.

That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.

I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.

Unless requiring an advance visa, how would Leave have kept these people out?

Plato_Says said:

Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies.

The disconnect is enormous. The new elite still think the oiks are vulgar and stupid.

Sooner or later the oiks are going to land a punch — maybe in France, perhaps the referendum, of God help us President Trump — then we will hear the politicians and their supporter class squeal.

rcs1000 said:

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Plato_Says said:

Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

What's left?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

So we are told.

This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.

I must have missed that.

It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037

Thanks. I disagree with that.

That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.

I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.

I travel to the US regularly (once a month?) and always wondered if criminals filled in their ESTAs accurately:

Criminal? Yes, guvnor, I guess I am...

I wonder what the penalty would be for anyone entering the US who has a criminal record?

BBC Fact Check of one of Nicky Morgan's claims. A member of the Government talking down our economy is a serious and sackable offence if she was not presenting the truth.

"Education Secretary Nicky Morgan said on BBC Breakfast this morning: "We've got research showing that the number of vacancies is falling while companies just wait and see what's going to happen on 23 June.""

"Reality Check verdict: Vacancies may not be falling and there is no evidence that it's anything to do with the EU Referendum."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35918804

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.

Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

I am not sure it is that binary. Less competition also means higher prices and less need to provide a decent service. That has an impact on the bottom half of society most and the lowest earners most of all.

So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

No, I am saying that if you reduce competition you end up raising prices and lowering quality of service. For what it's worth, I think that there are many, many people in the top 5% who are worth nothing like the salaries they are paid.

But since the EU tends to favour large corporations by stifling competition from smaller companies then competition is going to end up being less.

Not sure I buy that. The vast majority of European businesses are SMEs. The problem that Europe has is that many SMEs are reluctant to scale up - not because of the EU but because of national legislation - and that banks and private equity investors are so cautious. That has very little to do with the EU.

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.

Fine and we get to a more honest Govt fronting up all decisions, laws and the consequences of them. We can no longer blame Brussels bureacrats and our civil servants cannot blame a directive for the latest "you must sign this Minister".

tlg86 said:

I wonder what the penalty would be for anyone entering the US who has a criminal record?

I once had a retired constituent (middle-class amiable chap) who had forgotten that he had been convicted of breaking a window when he was 16, 50 years earlier, so he ticked the "no convictions" box. He was detained, chained to a chair for several hours, then sent back. It was a big news story at the time. When I complained, the US Embassy said curtly that those were the rules and people who didn't like them were free not to come.

I wasn't sure whether to be more concerned about the over-reaction or by finding that US customs have routine access to criminal records in Britain going back half a century. In Britain itself, a minor offence like that would have long expired.

SouthamObserver said:

"Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies."

And your trades friends selflessly want to reduce the competition they face so that they can charge their clients more.

Which sort of says they've learnt from those above them - non ?

This is of course one of your pet topics and one which In fully agree with you, which is business leaders have somewhere along the line lost the idea that they have a duty to enrich society as a whole as well as their shareholders. Today our leaders are more focussed on self enrichment and stuff the rest of it. However if that is the example they are setting why should those around them not take note.

I certainly wouldn't take Easyjet's word on any subject. A more dishonest organisation it would be hard to find.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Another example of people making claims about the benefits of the EU that are not true. Just like the Interail rubbish.

What 'Interail rubbish' was that, Richard?

My South African colleague has just given his view on immigration. One might describe them as "forthright".

Miss Plato, fear of change is very powerful, as is inertia. I'd be greatly surprised if Leave won, though it's not an incredible future.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Another example of people making claims about the benefits of the EU that are not true. Just like the Interail rubbish.

What 'Interail rubbish' was that, Richard?

The claim - or rather the implication - that involvement in Interail is in any way connected with EU membership. It isn't. Nor is access to the European Common Aviation Area.

runnymede said:

I certainly wouldn't take Easyjet's word on any subject. A more dishonest organisation it would be hard to find.

A quick look at EasyJet owns financial statements makes the 40% figure look very sus, at least in the context they are attempting to use it for as evidence. Oil price has had a massive impact on their costs, cost per seat excluding that has increased.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

"Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies."

And your trades friends selflessly want to reduce the competition they face so that they can charge their clients more.

Which sort of says they've learnt from those above them - non ?

This is of course one of your pet topics and one which In fully agree with you, which is business leaders have somewhere along the line lost the idea that they have a duty to enrich society as a whole as well as their shareholders. Today our leaders are more focussed on self enrichment and stuff the rest of it. However if that is the example they are setting why should those around them not take note.

They will. And the way you keep that in check is to maximise competition to the greatest extent possible.

We've over 80 days to go. I never expected it to be this close.

I'm expecting Remain just to temper my hopes. But I'm hopeful. That aspirational attitude has served me well in life. I hope it's shared.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, fear of change is very powerful, as is inertia. I'd be greatly surprised if Leave won, though it's not an incredible future.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.

Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

I am not sure it is that binary.

So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

No, I am saying that if you reduce com

But since the EU tends to favour large corporations by stifling competition from smaller companies then competition is going to end up being less.

By number all countries have more SMEs than than large corporations. But the legislation problem you point to is the real problem. SMEs tend to be the engines of employment and since the thrust of the EU is to commonise labour law along a Franco German model SMEs just don't want to take on people. since they are hard to get rid of. hence high youth unemployment and the excessive use of temps. The EU is making an employment problem worse.

A host of EU member states have liberalised their employment laws over recent years. The EU has not stopped them. Look at Germany, for example. Or Spain. Or Greece. The stand-out is France. But that is a decision the French have taken and it has nothing to do with the EU.

peter_from_putney said:

Let me see now, which highly esteemed PBer produced his inaugural referendum forecast earlier today, which also showed REMAIN as being 8% ahead of LEAVE?

Was it Jacksie?

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Plato_Says said:

Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

What's left?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

So we are told.

This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.

I must have missed that.

It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037

Thanks. I disagree with that.

That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.

I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.

Sorry, I mean it's to be expected from Leave.EU/GO but isn't and shouldn't be Vote Leave's style.

I see, sorry. I must admit I was a little surprised to see that it came from Vote Leave. I bet Farage is annoyed that his lot didn't come up with it!

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

I do, however.

Correct, a vision that can be best fulfilled by us Leaving the EU.

So being outward looking is being inward looking EU rather than rest of the world?

Well it's a view. Not one I comprehend.

It's like saying Mars is the most important bit of the solar system with Jupiter right there on our doorstep.

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

I do, however.

'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

I do, however.

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

I do, however.

In many respects you can engage with the world as much or even better from outside the EU.

Membership of a regional organisation is completely disconnected from modernity, welcoming, inclusive, engaged, outward looking etc.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of m.

But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.

Freedom of movement cuts bot

I am not sure it is that binary.

So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

No, I am saying that if you reduce com

But since the EU tends to favour large corporations by stifling competition from smaller companies then competition is going to end up being less.

By number all cou worse.

A host of EU member states have liberalised their employment laws over recent years. The EU has not stopped them. Look at Germany, for example. Or Spain. Or Greece. The stand-out is France. But that is a decision the French have taken and it has nothing to do with the EU.

That's true, but these are countries with sclerotic employment laws to start with. Where the UK is we are on catch up to the rest of Europe and inevitably we will end up where they want us to be, Personally i can't see that helping either employment growth or competition.

We'll be subject to lethal injection if we leave.

Texas law will prevail, obviously.

peter_from_putney said:

Plato_Says said:

I'm beginning to think Leave could do it. What could Remain throw now? Will the EU magic up another concession at the last minute?

Impossible surely? It would require the agreement of every one of the other EU nations. Even as things stand, there's probably the odd one nation *cough*, who would prefer to see us leave.

chestnut said:

Nobody was ever allowed into Europe before the EU

Apart from 6th June 1944.

Britons will be trapped on these islands forever more. We'll only know about Lazaroti from folk tales.

chestnut said:

Nobody was ever allowed into Europe before the EU

Mr. Nabavi, that's a rather positive spin on "You'll pay the same as what someone living there would pay and it would be remiss not to have travel insurance anyway".

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

I do, however.

I agree with you on all of that. But it has absolutely nothing to do with his manic desire for EU membership. Indeed continued membership of the EU puts a lot of that at risk.

Well if he stands on the white cliffs of Dover it's not Minnesota that he sees (or Russia). We have decided to be in a club that we are close to in every way. We export a lot to them and they buy a lot from us. We have a set of trade rules which simplify that trading relationship.

I have not found an instance of an EU-imposed trading rule in goods or services that prejudices our domestic suppliers.

We also have free movement of people (and the other three freedoms also). And a common set of values, codified by treaty.

We also have the ECJ which rules on those rules (as @DavidL said, someone has to).

We have excused ourselves from any kind of further integration including submitting our fiscal plans to them for approval, or currency integration, and they even allow a goodly amount of their national currency to be transacted through the UK of all places.

In total, I don't see the problem. I was about to say there isn't a law we couldn't unilaterally introduce which the EU could veto but perhaps there is - I would be interested to know what it could be.

So in all, I think Dave is doing the right thing.

Richard_Nabavi said:

runnymede said:

'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.

We have quoted exactly what she said - something you tried to avoid doing as it undermined your case. It is Morgan who was doing the conflation not Runnymede and I. Stop squirming Richard it is very unbecoming.

Richard_Nabavi said:

runnymede said:

'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.

Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?

Cameron is very safe on these figures.

NickPalmer said:

tlg86 said:

I wonder what the penalty would be for anyone entering the US who has a criminal record?

I once had a retired constituent (middle-class amiable chap) who had forgotten that he had been convicted of breaking a window when he was 16, 50 years earlier, so he ticked the "no convictions" box. He was detained, chained to a chair for several hours, then sent back. It was a big news story at the time. When I complained, the US Embassy said curtly that those were the rules and people who didn't like them were free not to come.

I wasn't sure whether to be more concerned about the over-reaction or by finding that US customs have routine access to criminal records in Britain going back half a century. In Britain itself, a minor offence like that would have long expired.

That's interesting and a little concerning. Did the people who did the detaining know what the criminal conviction was? Or did they just know that your constituent had a record but did not know what it was for? I'd have hoped that even if they couldn't allow him to enter the US that they'd have at least not treated him like a terror suspect.

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

I do, however.

Yes, and outside of the EU we could be an outward looking trading nation and take up our seats on the global trading bodies and set global trading rules rather than be in an insular and inward looking trading bloc which seeks to shut off the outside world because it impoverishes French farmers and German auto workers.

You want global trading rules, now, but find EU ones intolerable??

I want to be able to set our trade terms with mid-sized Asian and LatAm nations, not wait for the EU to do it for us and then favour goods trade and ignore trade in services.

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

runnymede said:

'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.

Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?

She explains in the next sentence. Do keep up!

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

We have quoted exactly what she said - something you tried to avoid doing as it undermined your case. It is Morgan who was doing the conflation not Runnymede and I. Stop squirming Richard it is very unbecoming.

Absolute crap. She is making two statements:

"For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life."

She then gives three examples of that - inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping. If you weren't so ludicrously purblind on the subject, you'd have no difficulty understanding that those are examples of the 'rite of passage' point. This is hardly controversial stuff.

She then makes the second statement:

Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.

and she goes on to explain how, in her opinion, the EU makes it easier and safer to travel.

So make the case, how does being in the EU make it easier to do those things? You should also address your answer to the Swiss federal government.

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

Oh wait.

But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.

Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.

Fine and we get to a more honest Govt fronting up all decisions, laws and the consequences of them. We can no longer blame Brussels bureacrats and our civil servants cannot blame a directive for the latest "you must sign this Minister".

No, we end up with another deal that is just as binding as the one we have now and that will take years to dismantle and renegotiate.

Only if Cameron negotiates it!
Seriously the voters can have their say at each GE on what decisions the Govt takes.

As is the case now, of course. We are having this referendum because the Tories won last year.
It'll be Dave or Boris negotiating the Brexit deal. If I were a Leaver that would worry me :-)

I will not be voting for Boris. I also doubt that Boris will get into the final 2 put to members.