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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos Referendum phone poll has the REMAIN lead down to

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    Yes, and outside of the EU we could be an outward looking trading nation and take up our seats on the global trading bodies and set global trading rules rather than be in an insular and inward looking trading bloc which seeks to shut off the outside world because it impoverishes French farmers and German auto workers.
    You want global trading rules, now, but find EU ones intolerable??
    I want to be able to set our trade terms with mid-sized Asian and LatAm nations, not wait for the EU to do it for us and then favour goods trade and ignore trade in services.
    So we can unilaterally determine the specs for the tractors we sell to Thailand? So EU have one set of specs, the UK another. Poor Thai tractor importers.

    Give me a for instance.
    In your example only the Thai spec matters. And it's probably set to US or Japanese standards.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    watford30 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    It's pretty obvious what Thicky Morgan meant.

    Why you continually embarrass yourself defending these people is a mystery.
    Nothing embarrassing about the Leave campaigns of course...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091


    We have quoted exactly what she said - something you tried to avoid doing as it undermined your case. It is Morgan who was doing the conflation not Runnymede and I. Stop squirming Richard it is very unbecoming.

    Absolute crap. She is making two statements:

    "For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life."

    She then gives three examples of that - inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping. If you weren't so ludicrously purblind on the subject, you'd have no difficulty understanding that those are examples of the 'rite of passage' point. This is hardly controversial stuff.

    She then makes the second statement:

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.

    and she goes on to explain how, in her opinion, the EU makes it easier and safer to travel.



    She might be technically right, but it still shows she has a very weird view of what life is like for the average youngster: most don't have the money to go backpacking in Europe.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997

    Young people rarely vote.

    Yes, exactly. That was one of the points she was making:
    “I want young people to make sure their voices are heard in this debate – whichever side of the debate they might be on – otherwise they risk having the decision made by other people, their future decided for them, not by them. Elections are decided by the people who turn up”
    I'm no huge fan of Ms Morgan, but it seems to be a good speech, and well-argued:
    A strategy of chasing people who do not vote worked out so well for Ed Miliband. She would be better off chasing Labour voters starting with the teachers. Ah, yes, there is that little problem of the recent Academies announcement from her BFF Osborne.
    Anyone spot the lack of a joined up campaign plan from Osborne?
    I suspect that a bigger problem is that most Conservative politicians won't be listened to by leftward-leaning young people.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    Are financial traders at hedge funds planning to slaughter the crap out of Remain's chances? Word has reached my ear that most of them reckon it's Brexit all the way. Where expectations of the referendum result are concerned, they're a very interesting group to watch,

    Then there's this. Frances Gibbs talks about how hedge funds are planning to run private polls and how they'll rake it in "if" their predictions are right. It's as if she's oblivious as to how votes are influenced and how traders can gang up for the kill, e.g. borrowing a currency to flog it, flog it, flog it, in huge amounts, if they're trying to bring that currency down, or "speculate against" it, in the euphemism. For goodness sake, they don't gamble. Gambling's a mug's game!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?

    Access to healthcare in case of an accident seems a pretty decent one to me.


    You had better tell the NHS to update their information then:

    http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/Healthcareabroad/countryguide/Pages/healthcareinSwitzerland.aspx
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The more I read of this speech, the more laughable and embarrassing it is - how about this passage

    'This is the generation of Instagram, Easy Jet and Ebay.

    They don’t want to see a Britain cut off from the world, where not only their opportunities, but our influence as a country, ends at our shores.'

    Utter nonsense. Also incredibly patronising. Anyone with a scintilla of intelligence should be ashamed to be associated with this stuff.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Danny565 said:


    We have quoted exactly what she said - something you tried to avoid doing as it undermined your case. It is Morgan who was doing the conflation not Runnymede and I. Stop squirming Richard it is very unbecoming.

    Absolute crap. She is making two statements:
    ~
    She might be technically right
    Being "technically right" is great for betting or law, and the best kind of right for alot of situations. Less so for politics ;)
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    Yes, and outside of the EU we could be an outward looking trading nation and take up our seats on the global trading bodies and set global trading rules rather than be in an insular and inward looking trading bloc which seeks to shut off the outside world because it impoverishes French farmers and German auto workers.
    You want global trading rules, now, but find EU ones intolerable??
    I want to be able to set our trade terms with mid-sized Asian and LatAm nations, not wait for the EU to do it for us and then favour goods trade and ignore trade in services.
    So we can unilaterally determine the specs for the tractors we sell to Thailand? So the EU has one set of specs, the UK another. Poor Thai tractor importers.

    Give me a for instance.
    No, I want to be able to export and import good and services to/from Thailand freely without tariffs and not waiting 9-12 years for the EU to start and conclude a trade deal which will end up being gutted to protect French agriculture and German industry.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389

    It'll be Dave or Boris negotiating the Brexit deal. If I were a Leaver that would worry me :-)

    It won't be Cameron. If he's still in office for the referendum and Leave wins, Cameron will resign on 24 June, or within a few days.
  • Options
    Troubling. Where is our Foreign office? Asleep? The famed EU support?

    "Falkland Islands seek clarity on new ruling expanding Argentina's sea control
    The Falkland Islands have asked the UK to clarify the meaning of an international commission judgement that would leave the islands surrounded by Argentina's territorial waters."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35914839
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    Considering the issue of Europe scored so lowly on people's priorities, like 1-2% of people said it was the most important issue for them, yet we have this vote in June that is simply crowding out any other political debate.

    The whole issue of Europe has become a parody of it's own self importance.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?

    Access to healthcare in case of an accident seems a pretty decent one to me.


    You had better tell the NHS to update their information then:

    http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/Healthcareabroad/countryguide/Pages/healthcareinSwitzerland.aspx

    Why? As a member state of the EEA Switzerland is obliged to provide what we also get in the EU. That is part of the EFTA/EU deal, is it not?

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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Where is our Foreign office?'

    Busy dusting off all the various plans they have put together for selling out the Falklanders over the last 40 years or so I expect.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997
    runnymede said:

    The more I read of this speech, the more laughable and embarrassing it is - how about this passage

    'This is the generation of Instagram, Easy Jet and Ebay.

    They don’t want to see a Britain cut off from the world, where not only their opportunities, but our influence as a country, ends at our shores.'

    Utter nonsense. Also incredibly patronising. Anyone with a scintilla of intelligence should be ashamed to be associated with this stuff.

    EasyJet and Ebay are probably of more interest to the middle-aged.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I did an ERASMUS exchange year as a student, it was great, no tuition fees and a €3000 bursary for living costs. That will disappear if we Leave. Colossal waste of money of course, but so are free TV licences for millionaires.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Sean_F said:

    Young people rarely vote.

    Yes, exactly. That was one of the points she was making:
    “I want young people to make sure their voices are heard in this debate – whichever side of the debate they might be on – otherwise they risk having the decision made by other people, their future decided for them, not by them. Elections are decided by the people who turn up”
    I'm no huge fan of Ms Morgan, but it seems to be a good speech, and well-argued:
    A strategy of chasing people who do not vote worked out so well for Ed Miliband. She would be better off chasing Labour voters starting with the teachers. Ah, yes, there is that little problem of the recent Academies announcement from her BFF Osborne.
    Anyone spot the lack of a joined up campaign plan from Osborne?
    I suspect that a bigger problem is that most Conservative politicians won't be listened to by leftward-leaning young people.
    Oh, but they are going to talk to their parents and grandparents about it. Look here grandma, I know you have disagreed with this EU stuff for your whole life, but Nicky has told me if we leave I won't be able to inter-rail or backpack in Europe, you had better vote to remain or I'll hold my breath until I pass out.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    runnymede said:

    The more I read of this speech, the more laughable and embarrassing it is - how about this passage

    'This is the generation of Instagram, Easy Jet and Ebay.

    They don’t want to see a Britain cut off from the world, where not only their opportunities, but our influence as a country, ends at our shores.'

    Utter nonsense. Also incredibly patronising. Anyone with a scintilla of intelligence should be ashamed to be associated with this stuff.

    It's hardly surprising. A few weeks ago, Cameron lied about refugee camps in Kent, and Nabavi was 'impressed'.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?

    Access to healthcare in case of an accident seems a pretty decent one to me.


    You had better tell the NHS to update their information then:

    http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/Healthcareabroad/countryguide/Pages/healthcareinSwitzerland.aspx

    Why? As a member state of the EEA Switzerland is obliged to provide what we also get in the EU. That is part of the EFTA/EU deal, is it not?

    So countries outside of the EU are part of the EHIC, didn't you just say that it was a benefit of being in the EU?
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    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited March 2016
    John_N said:

    Are financial traders at hedge funds planning to slaughter the crap out of Remain's chances? Word has reached my ear that most of them reckon it's Brexit all the way. Where expectations of the referendum result are concerned, they're a very interesting group to watch,

    Then there's this. Frances Gibbs talks about how hedge funds are planning to run private polls and how they'll rake it in "if" their predictions are right. It's as if she's oblivious as to how votes are influenced and how traders can gang up for the kill, e.g. borrowing a currency to flog it, flog it, flog it, in huge amounts, if they're trying to bring that currency down, or "speculate against" it, in the euphemism. For goodness sake, they don't gamble. Gambling's a mug's game!

    Isn't this very much what TSE was referring to a couple of days ago and the possible way in which Joe Public might be able to gauge which the vote was going by closely following the £ vs $US rate throughout the day. Of course this probably only works if there is a clearly discernible winner and not if the result is mightily close
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I diagnose all the puffing about Boris as a distraction by Remain. No Tories I know would give him a PM vote.

    Pretending a vote for Leave is a proxy for PM Boris is laughable, but that's the line they're peddling.

    Don't fall for it.

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

    Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.
    Fine and we get to a more honest Govt fronting up all decisions, laws and the consequences of them. We can no longer blame Brussels bureacrats and our civil servants cannot blame a directive for the latest "you must sign this Minister".

    No, we end up with another deal that is just as binding as the one we have now and that will take years to dismantle and renegotiate.

    Snip

    As is the case now, of course. We are having this referendum because the Tories won last year.
    It'll be Dave or Boris negotiating the Brexit deal. If I were a Leaver that would worry me :-)
    I will not be voting for Boris. I also doubt that Boris will get into the final 2 put to members.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2016
    watford30 said:

    It's hardly surprising. A few weeks ago, Cameron lied about refugee camps in Kent, and Nabavi was 'impressed'.

    I was impressed, you have forgotten to remind people, by the fact that he had so effectively got the Leave side to argue against their own lie. It was a neat piece of political neutralisation of a completely false argument which the Leave side were getting some traction on.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    I cannot see how any politician even dares to tempt the ear of young people. They (young people) have been so monumentally FUBARed by the political class.

    The life of the young- saddled by debt, uncertain jobs, renting, working for longer for less, retiring later, crisis in energy and climate change- whilst their parents have quite happily consumed, benefited from free education, good contracts, lower retirement age, affordable housing etc.....

    The UK is going to be like Italy where parents maintain control over their kids well into their forties, and then the kids have to look after their parents as their health fails.
    Sean_F said:

    Young people rarely vote.

    Yes, exactly. That was one of the points she was making:
    “I want young people to make sure their voices are heard in this debate – whichever side of the debate they might be on – otherwise they risk having the decision made by other people, their future decided for them, not by them. Elections are decided by the people who turn up”
    I'm no huge fan of Ms Morgan, but it seems to be a good speech, and well-argued:
    A strategy of chasing people who do not vote worked out so well for Ed Miliband. She would be better off chasing Labour voters starting with the teachers. Ah, yes, there is that little problem of the recent Academies announcement from her BFF Osborne.
    Anyone spot the lack of a joined up campaign plan from Osborne?
    I suspect that a bigger problem is that most Conservative politicians won't be listened to by leftward-leaning young people.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I sold my college books on eBay a decade ago. It's beyond saying groovy to be hip.

    No one with a scintilla of nous would say this crap.
    runnymede said:

    The more I read of this speech, the more laughable and embarrassing it is - how about this passage

    'This is the generation of Instagram, Easy Jet and Ebay.

    They don’t want to see a Britain cut off from the world, where not only their opportunities, but our influence as a country, ends at our shores.'

    Utter nonsense. Also incredibly patronising. Anyone with a scintilla of intelligence should be ashamed to be associated with this stuff.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?

    Access to healthcare in case of an accident seems a pretty decent one to me.


    You had better tell the NHS to update their information then:

    http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/Healthcareabroad/countryguide/Pages/healthcareinSwitzerland.aspx

    Why? As a member state of the EEA Switzerland is obliged to provide what we also get in the EU. That is part of the EFTA/EU deal, is it not?

    So countries outside of the EU are part of the EHIC, didn't you just say that it was a benefit of being in the EU?

    If Switzerland did not want access to the EU free market it would not have the agreement with the EU that it does; so of course it is a benefit of being in the EU.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,023
    TOPPING said:



    Well if he stands on the white cliffs of Dover it's not Minnesota that he sees (or Russia). We have decided to be in a club that we are close to in every way. We export a lot to them and they buy a lot from us. We have a set of trade rules which simplify that trading relationship.

    I have not found an instance of an EU-imposed trading rule in goods or services that prejudices our domestic suppliers.

    We also have free movement of people (and the other three freedoms also). And a common set of values, codified by treaty.

    We also have the ECJ which rules on those rules (as @DavidL said, someone has to).

    We have excused ourselves from any kind of further integration including submitting our fiscal plans to them for approval, or currency integration, and they even allow a goodly amount of their national currency to be transacted through the UK of all places.

    In total, I don't see the problem. I was about to say there isn't a law we couldn't unilaterally introduce which the EU could veto but perhaps there is - I would be interested to know what it could be.

    So in all, I think Dave is doing the right thing.

    We can't remove VAT on basic necessities like heating. Nor can we remove it on the sorts of things we want to encourage like brown field developments.

    We can't remove farm subsidies from very wealthy agricultural conglomerates or families and concentrate in areas where we as a nation think it would be best used.

    We are forced to follow the idiotic and, in my personal experience, dangerous rules on the markings of fire extinguishers which make it more difficult to identify which fire extinguisher is present from a distance.

    Three examples out of hundreds of small idiocies imposed by the EU.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Troubling. Where is our Foreign office? Asleep? The famed EU support?

    "Falkland Islands seek clarity on new ruling expanding Argentina's sea control
    The Falkland Islands have asked the UK to clarify the meaning of an international commission judgement that would leave the islands surrounded by Argentina's territorial waters."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35914839

    Given territorial waters extend only 12 nautical miles from shore this seems unlikely.
This discussion has been closed.