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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos Referendum phone poll has the REMAIN lead down to

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    Insulting piffle. You know full well that fellow loyal Tories disagree with you for very valid reasons.

    I'd suggest that fellow Tory members here who disagree with you are in full possession of their critical faculties.

    Those who disagree with me, yes. Those who write 'I look forward to your investiture' because I point out that Nicky Morgan's speech is actually quite good?
    Would you prefer the award of an OBN?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies.

    The disconnect is enormous. The new elite still think the oiks are vulgar and stupid.

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

    But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?
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    Nicky Morgan's big problem is that she is not a very convincing performer. Like Jeremy Hunt she gives the impression of being permanently startled.

    Yes, but I am trying to be a gentleman.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

    But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

    I am not sure it is that binary. Less competition also means higher prices and less need to provide a decent service. That has an impact on the bottom half of society most and the lowest earners most of all.

    So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited March 2016

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...


    Here's the full text

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation
    Some ludicrous claims in there.
    Which ones?

    Starter for 10

    The cost of flights is down by 40% thanks to EU action...

    Possibly EasyJet know what they are talking about but I guess you know better

    " “The single aviation area gives airlines freedom to fly across Europe,” an easyJet spokesman explained, “and since its introduction passengers have seen fares fall by around 40 per cent and routes increase by 180 per cent.”"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/how-air-fares-might-rise-if-there-was-a-brexit/
    Cost by seat, excluding fuel is what is required here. And a brief look through the corporate releases of EasyJet show increases most years e.g last year, the headline was a 6.3% reduction, but when you strip out fuel cost reductions costs actually went up by 1.3%, and a quick look shows similar patterns for previous few years i.e. the big reductions are down to massive drop in oil prices, which is nothing to do with EU policy.

    Will concede that the agreement with EU and EFTA consumers over flights has been positive...but 40% due to their attack, not buying it.
    I could point to a massive reduction in cost of flights to US for instance, which isn't anywhere near as liberalized market. I can fly Lon to NY for £300 at the moment. When oil goes through the floor and there is a lot of competition on the routes, prices tend to drop.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...


    Here's the full text

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation
    Some ludicrous claims in there.
    Which ones?

    Starter for 10

    The cost of flights is down by 40% thanks to EU action...

    Possibly EasyJet know what they are talking about but I guess you know better

    " “The single aviation area gives airlines freedom to fly across Europe,” an easyJet spokesman explained, “and since its introduction passengers have seen fares fall by around 40 per cent and routes increase by 180 per cent.”"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/how-air-fares-might-rise-if-there-was-a-brexit/
    I know it costs so much to fly Ryan Air or Easy Jet to non EU destinations.
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    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

    And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

    We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

    What's left?

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

    So we are told.
    This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

    Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.
    I must have missed that.

    It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

    I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

    So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037
    Thanks. I disagree with that.

    That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.
    I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

    Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

    ‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

    Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

    But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

    I am not sure it is that binary. Less competition also means higher prices and less need to provide a decent service. That has an impact on the bottom half of society most and the lowest earners most of all.

    So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

    No, I am saying that if you reduce competition you end up raising prices and lowering quality of service. For what it's worth, I think that there are many, many people in the top 5% who are worth nothing like the salaries they are paid.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited March 2016
    philiph said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...


    Here's the full text

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation
    Some ludicrous claims in there.
    Which ones?

    Starter for 10

    The cost of flights is down by 40% thanks to EU action...

    Possibly EasyJet know what they are talking about but I guess you know better

    " “The single aviation area gives airlines freedom to fly across Europe,” an easyJet spokesman explained, “and since its introduction passengers have seen fares fall by around 40 per cent and routes increase by 180 per cent.”"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/how-air-fares-might-rise-if-there-was-a-brexit/
    I know it costs so much to fly Ryan Air or Easy Jet to non EU destinations.
    I believe the agreement that covers EU, includes pretty much all European (non-EU) countries and even some North African countries.

    It seems again like one of these things that is EU, but not exclusively EU, just like lots of trade deals.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Hmm Mr N I'm afraid I don't agree with that, your soulmate Mr Meeks is a good example of one who's quite happy to throw accusations around so it's not just on one side only.

    The staleness of the EUref arguments is that there are no knock out blows ; in simple terms nobody knows and everybody is spinning.

    Mr Meeks throws different accusations around!

    You are right in your second paragraph. It's a judgement call on a set of unknowns, and sensible, honest people, even of broadly the same political position in other matters, will form different views on the same facts. That is the point I keep repeating.
    Unfortunately telling people they have taken leave of their senses tends not to convey that sentiment. :-)
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    Against the trend I'm quite impressed with Nicky Morgan's speech today - she hits on the generational divide that the media hasn't quite figured out. The reporting is as bad as some of the hyperbole, but the core message of a generation who've grown up with globalisation and cheap flights, and wouldn't want to change that. Leave have a big job to do to change the 18-35s numbers, and just hoping they won't vote seems risky to me.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    We often have the impression that these people were not just in Syria as sentries or to be trained in the use of weapons, but that they took part in maimings, killings and bomb attacks," German Public Prosecutor General Peter Frank told the Süddeutsche Zeitung...

    Frank added that prosecutors are currently bringing around 130 terrorism-related cases against 200 individual defendants, most of them alleged members or supporters of foreign terrorist groups.
    http://www.thelocal.de/20160329/germany-struggling-to-jail-isis-fighters
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    tlg86 said:

    Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

    And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

    We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

    What's left?

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

    So we are told.
    This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

    Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.
    I must have missed that.

    It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

    I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

    So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037
    Thanks. I disagree with that.

    That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.
    I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

    Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

    ‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

    Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.
    I travel to the US regularly (once a month?) and always wondered if criminals filled in their ESTAs accurately:

    Criminal? Yes, guvnor, I guess I am...
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

    Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited March 2016
    rcs1000 said:


    tlg86 said:

    Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

    And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

    We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

    What's left?

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

    So we are told.
    This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

    Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.
    I must have missed that.

    It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

    I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

    So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037
    Thanks. I disagree with that.

    That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.
    I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

    Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

    ‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

    Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.
    I travel to the US regularly (once a month?) and always wondered if criminals filled in their ESTAs accurately:

    Criminal? Yes, guvnor, I guess I am...
    Criminals...known for their honesty....
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

    And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

    We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

    What's left?

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

    So we are told.
    This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

    Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.
    I must have missed that.

    It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

    I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

    So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037
    Thanks. I disagree with that.

    That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.
    I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

    Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

    ‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

    Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.
    Unless requiring an advance visa, how would Leave have kept these people out?

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

    But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

    I am not sure it is that binary. Less competition also means higher prices and less need to provide a decent service. That has an impact on the bottom half of society most and the lowest earners most of all.

    So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

    No, I am saying that if you reduce competition you end up raising prices and lowering quality of service. For what it's worth, I think that there are many, many people in the top 5% who are worth nothing like the salaries they are paid.

    But since the EU tends to favour large corporations by stifling competition from smaller companies then competition is going to end up being less.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies.

    The disconnect is enormous. The new elite still think the oiks are vulgar and stupid.

    Sooner or later the oiks are going to land a punch — maybe in France, perhaps the referendum, of God help us President Trump — then we will hear the politicians and their supporter class squeal.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    "Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies."

    And your trades friends selflessly want to reduce the competition they face so that they can charge their clients more.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209
    rcs1000 said:


    tlg86 said:

    Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

    And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

    We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

    What's left?

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

    So we are told.
    This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

    Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.
    I must have missed that.

    It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

    I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

    So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037
    Thanks. I disagree with that.

    That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.
    I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

    Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

    ‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

    Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.
    I travel to the US regularly (once a month?) and always wondered if criminals filled in their ESTAs accurately:

    Criminal? Yes, guvnor, I guess I am...
    I wonder what the penalty would be for anyone entering the US who has a criminal record?
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    I still don't understand why anyone would vote for the worst option for UK, the status quo.

    A remain vote will result in years of squabbling and friction as we resist the obvious and essential movement of the Euro Zone to greater integration. If you want to be a member of the EU, then join the EU in all ways including the Euro. Why be a truculent semi detached bickering almost member for the next 20 years?

    Either go in completely or get out. Those are the only sensible options for a harmonious future with our EU neighbours. Status quo is just the worst of all worlds to me.
  • Options
    BBC Fact Check of one of Nicky Morgan's claims. A member of the Government talking down our economy is a serious and sackable offence if she was not presenting the truth.

    "Education Secretary Nicky Morgan said on BBC Breakfast this morning: "We've got research showing that the number of vacancies is falling while companies just wait and see what's going to happen on 23 June.""

    "Reality Check verdict: Vacancies may not be falling and there is no evidence that it's anything to do with the EU Referendum."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35918804
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684
    rcs1000 said:

    I know you'll hate this comparison, but you're reminding me a lot of Mr Sykes and his wobbly bottom half empty view of all things.

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.
    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.
    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    Stunned.
    It is REMAIN that should be very worried if after weeks of having the full weight of the Government communications machine behind it and a fragmented LEAVE campaign, by rights REMAIN should have a commanding lead. Instead having used almost every conceivable attack line, the trend in the polls has moved towards LEAVE and IMHO LEAVE now has a small lead. A quite remarkable position.
    We also have Dave receiving some of his worst personal ratings in months and delivering a lead for Corbyn in one poll.
    There has been a swing to Remain since The Deal was announced, but not a decisive one.

    Given the softening up Leave had for the first two weeks of March, I'd say that precludes a landslide but what do I know.
    Casino is better than most at avoiding cognitive dissonance.
    Thanks.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

    But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

    I am not sure it is that binary. Less competition also means higher prices and less need to provide a decent service. That has an impact on the bottom half of society most and the lowest earners most of all.

    So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

    No, I am saying that if you reduce competition you end up raising prices and lowering quality of service. For what it's worth, I think that there are many, many people in the top 5% who are worth nothing like the salaries they are paid.

    But since the EU tends to favour large corporations by stifling competition from smaller companies then competition is going to end up being less.

    Not sure I buy that. The vast majority of European businesses are SMEs. The problem that Europe has is that many SMEs are reluctant to scale up - not because of the EU but because of national legislation - and that banks and private equity investors are so cautious. That has very little to do with the EU.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited March 2016
    The latest NUS-Unipol survey shows the average weekly rent for student accommodation in the UK now stands at £147, an 18% increase since 2012-13. Since 2006, the private sector has gone from providing 18% of bed spaces to 41%. “The private operators produce a lovely product, high-spec rooms and gyms and and so on, but it all comes with a price tag,”

    http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/mar/29/en-suite-education-the-rise-of-luxury-student-housing

    That seems eye wateringly expensive to me. £600+ a month for a room.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

    Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.
    Fine and we get to a more honest Govt fronting up all decisions, laws and the consequences of them. We can no longer blame Brussels bureacrats and our civil servants cannot blame a directive for the latest "you must sign this Minister".
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Still confident of a strong Remain win.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,370
    tlg86 said:



    I wonder what the penalty would be for anyone entering the US who has a criminal record?

    I once had a retired constituent (middle-class amiable chap) who had forgotten that he had been convicted of breaking a window when he was 16, 50 years earlier, so he ticked the "no convictions" box. He was detained, chained to a chair for several hours, then sent back. It was a big news story at the time. When I complained, the US Embassy said curtly that those were the rules and people who didn't like them were free not to come.

    I wasn't sure whether to be more concerned about the over-reaction or by finding that US customs have routine access to criminal records in Britain going back half a century. In Britain itself, a minor offence like that would have long expired.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

    Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.
    Fine and we get to a more honest Govt fronting up all decisions, laws and the consequences of them. We can no longer blame Brussels bureacrats and our civil servants cannot blame a directive for the latest "you must sign this Minister".

    No, we end up with another deal that is just as binding as the one we have now and that will take years to dismantle and renegotiate.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    "Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies."

    And your trades friends selflessly want to reduce the competition they face so that they can charge their clients more.

    Which sort of says they've learnt from those above them - non ?

    This is of course one of your pet topics and one which In fully agree with you, which is business leaders have somewhere along the line lost the idea that they have a duty to enrich society as a whole as well as their shareholders. Today our leaders are more focussed on self enrichment and stuff the rest of it. However if that is the example they are setting why should those around them not take note.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,025
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...


    Here's the full text

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation
    Some ludicrous claims in there.
    Which ones?

    Starter for 10

    The cost of flights is down by 40% thanks to EU action...

    Possibly EasyJet know what they are talking about but I guess you know better

    " “The single aviation area gives airlines freedom to fly across Europe,” an easyJet spokesman explained, “and since its introduction passengers have seen fares fall by around 40 per cent and routes increase by 180 per cent.”"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/how-air-fares-might-rise-if-there-was-a-brexit/
    Another example of people making claims about the benefits of the EU that are not true. Just like the Interail rubbish.

    The European Common Aviation Area is not an EU initiative. It started as a series of bilateral agreements between countries and includes many European countries which are not part of the EU.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    I certainly wouldn't take Easyjet's word on any subject. A more dishonest organisation it would be hard to find.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    I'm beginning to think Leave could do it. What could Remain throw now? Will the EU magic up another concession at the last minute?

    Cameron's taken a huge personal hit as has Osborne. This isn't where they expected to be now. And laughable as it is, Labour managed a 1pt poll lead.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Still confident of a strong Remain win.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Another example of people making claims about the benefits of the EU that are not true. Just like the Interail rubbish.

    What 'Interail rubbish' was that, Richard?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,025


    No, it isn't. She equates the EU with Europe and agains promotes the myth that Britain would be 'cut off' and 'isolated' outside the EU when actually it's all about creating a global facing Britain. The dogwhistle on the InterRailing has already been comprehensively debunked.

    You really do have to do better than this. And I suggest you stop labelling me as a Leaver (you'll be calling me "mad", "fruitcake" or "frother" next as seems to be irresistible by so many on the Remain side) or I will cease to engage with you on this subject, as I have with others.

    You haven't read the speech, or, more likely, you are seeing it through a prism. She's not promoting any such myth, she's taking about how young people view the EU. I think she's right.
    No she is trying to reinforce that view through the use of carefully selected myths which are likely to appeal to that section of society. It is a perfectly valid way to proceed but at the same time it is valid to point out this is what she is doing and to put the lie to those myths.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited March 2016
    My South African colleague has just given his view on immigration. One might describe them as "forthright".
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684
    tlg86 said:

    Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

    And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

    We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

    What's left?

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

    So we are told.
    This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

    Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.
    I must have missed that.

    It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

    I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

    So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037
    Thanks. I disagree with that.

    That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.
    I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

    Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

    ‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

    Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.
    Sorry, I mean it's to be expected from Leave.EU/GO but isn't and shouldn't be Vote Leave's style.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Miss Plato, fear of change is very powerful, as is inertia. I'd be greatly surprised if Leave won, though it's not an incredible future.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Guido's take on Nicky Morgan's humdinger of a speech

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/29/nicky-morgans-nicola-murray-moment/
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,025

    Another example of people making claims about the benefits of the EU that are not true. Just like the Interail rubbish.

    What 'Interail rubbish' was that, Richard?
    The claim - or rather the implication - that involvement in Interail is in any way connected with EU membership. It isn't. Nor is access to the European Common Aviation Area.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684


    No, it isn't. She equates the EU with Europe and agains promotes the myth that Britain would be 'cut off' and 'isolated' outside the EU when actually it's all about creating a global facing Britain. The dogwhistle on the InterRailing has already been comprehensively debunked.

    You really do have to do better than this. And I suggest you stop labelling me as a Leaver (you'll be calling me "mad", "fruitcake" or "frother" next as seems to be irresistible by so many on the Remain side) or I will cease to engage with you on this subject, as I have with others.

    You haven't read the speech, or, more likely, you are seeing it through a prism. She's not promoting any such myth, she's taking about how young people view the EU. I think she's right.
    I have. I'm afraid we'll just have to agree to disagree.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited March 2016
    runnymede said:

    I certainly wouldn't take Easyjet's word on any subject. A more dishonest organisation it would be hard to find.

    A quick look at EasyJet owns financial statements makes the 40% figure look very sus, at least in the context they are attempting to use it for as evidence. Oil price has had a massive impact on their costs, cost per seat excluding that has increased.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

    But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

    I am not sure it is that binary.

    So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

    No, I am saying that if you reduce com

    But since the EU tends to favour large corporations by stifling competition from smaller companies then competition is going to end up being less.

    Not sure I buy that. The vast majority of European businesses are SMEs. The problem that Europe has is that many SMEs are reluctant to scale up - not because of the EU but because of national legislation - and that banks and private equity investors are so cautious. That has very little to do with the EU.

    By number all countries have more SMEs than than large corporations. But the legislation problem you point to is the real problem. SMEs tend to be the engines of employment and since the thrust of the EU is to commonise labour law along a Franco German model SMEs just don't want to take on people. since they are hard to get rid of. hence high youth unemployment and the excessive use of temps. The EU is making an employment problem worse.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    "Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies."

    And your trades friends selflessly want to reduce the competition they face so that they can charge their clients more.

    Which sort of says they've learnt from those above them - non ?

    This is of course one of your pet topics and one which In fully agree with you, which is business leaders have somewhere along the line lost the idea that they have a duty to enrich society as a whole as well as their shareholders. Today our leaders are more focussed on self enrichment and stuff the rest of it. However if that is the example they are setting why should those around them not take note.

    They will. And the way you keep that in check is to maximise competition to the greatest extent possible.

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    Let me see now, which highly esteemed PBer produced his inaugural referendum forecast earlier today, which also showed REMAIN as being 8% ahead of LEAVE?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?
    Indeed.

    The average working person earns £26,000 a year. 85% of working people earn under £43,000 a year. For every two working people, there is also a state pensioner or recipient of out-of-work benefits.

    They aren't international business directors, globe trotting executives, the owners of foreign property or city financiers. This latter group are a small minority.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    "Well quite. I find the narrow self interested most unattractive. I've many trades friends who've been hurt financially, and the bien pesents talk about the fabulous new Eatery down the road and their cheap nannies."

    And your trades friends selflessly want to reduce the competition they face so that they can charge their clients more.

    Which sort of says they've learnt from those above them - non ?

    This is of course one of your pet topics and one which In fully agree with you, which is business leaders have somewhere along the line lost the idea that they have a duty to enrich society as a whole as well as their shareholders. Today our leaders are more focussed on self enrichment and stuff the rest of it. However if that is the example they are setting why should those around them not take note.

    They will. And the way you keep that in check is to maximise competition to the greatest extent possible.

    which is not something the EU does.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    We've over 80 days to go. I never expected it to be this close.

    I'm expecting Remain just to temper my hopes. But I'm hopeful. That aspirational attitude has served me well in life. I hope it's shared.

    Miss Plato, fear of change is very powerful, as is inertia. I'd be greatly surprised if Leave won, though it's not an incredible future.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,413

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.

    But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Freedom of movement cuts both ways. If the bottom half of society by earnings got a wage increase due to less competition wouldn't it be worth asking rich folk like yourself to stand for an extra 15 minutes at the airport ?

    I am not sure it is that binary.

    So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

    No, I am saying that if you reduce com

    But since the EU tends to favour large corporations by stifling competition from smaller companies then competition is going to end up being less.

    By number all countries have more SMEs than than large corporations. But the legislation problem you point to is the real problem. SMEs tend to be the engines of employment and since the thrust of the EU is to commonise labour law along a Franco German model SMEs just don't want to take on people. since they are hard to get rid of. hence high youth unemployment and the excessive use of temps. The EU is making an employment problem worse.

    A host of EU member states have liberalised their employment laws over recent years. The EU has not stopped them. Look at Germany, for example. Or Spain. Or Greece. The stand-out is France. But that is a decision the French have taken and it has nothing to do with the EU.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2016

    The claim - or rather the implication - that involvement in Interail is in any way connected with EU membership. It isn't.

    Nicky Morgan made absolutely no such claim or implication, nor anything like it. Here's the text:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation

    She did however make a very sensible point:

    Young people traveling in Europe don’t have to worry about a myriad of visas and entry requirements and they don’t have to worry about the cost of falling ill because the European Health Insurance Card means they’ll be treated for free or at a reduced cost no matter which country they are in, with students covered for the duration of their course or foreign assignment.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Let me see now, which highly esteemed PBer produced his inaugural referendum forecast earlier today, which also showed REMAIN as being 8% ahead of LEAVE?

    Was it Jacksie?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,025
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    I agree with you on all of that. But it has absolutely nothing to do with his manic desire for EU membership. Indeed continued membership of the EU puts a lot of that at risk.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209
    edited March 2016

    tlg86 said:

    Piffle. Cameron has insulted Boris, kept Leavers from talking after he started to, stopped them having access to documents and thrown the kitchen sink at Project Fear.

    And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.

    We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.

    What's left?

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    The hounds of hell will be released from 9th May onwards.

    So we are told.
    This is merely the appetising hors d'oeuvre from Remain.

    Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.
    I must have missed that.

    It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.

    I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.

    So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/7-things-wrong-vote-leaves-7646037
    Thanks. I disagree with that.

    That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.
    I hate to break this to you but I found this in the Mail Online story...

    Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said: ‘EU membership means we have lost control of our borders and have been unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the UK.

    ‘Free movement of people has created free movement of criminals making the UK less safe and less secure. We’ve allowed EU judges to hang out a welcome sign to individuals the public would rightly expect never to be allowed into the UK. If we want a sensible and humane migration policy, the only safe option is to vote Leave and take back control.’

    Everywhere source seems to think this has come from Vote Leave.
    Sorry, I mean it's to be expected from Leave.EU/GO but isn't and shouldn't be Vote Leave's style.
    I see, sorry. I must admit I was a little surprised to see that it came from Vote Leave. I bet Farage is annoyed that his lot didn't come up with it! :smiley:
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    I'm beginning to think Leave could do it. What could Remain throw now? Will the EU magic up another concession at the last minute?

    Impossible surely? It would require the agreement of every one of the other EU nations. Even as things stand, there's probably the odd one nation *cough*, who would prefer to see us leave.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    Correct, a vision that can be best fulfilled by us Leaving the EU.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Nabavi, I'm reasonably sure that's not how the health card works. It entitles equal treatment to citizens of a given country, doesn't it? You still need travel insurance, after all.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    So being outward looking is being inward looking EU rather than rest of the world?

    Well it's a view. Not one I comprehend.

    It's like saying Mars is the most important bit of the solar system with Jupiter right there on our doorstep.
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,025

    The claim - or rather the implication - that involvement in Interail is in any way connected with EU membership. It isn't.

    Nicky Morgan made absolutely no such claim or implication, nor anything like it. Here's the text:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation

    She did however make a very sensible point:

    Young people traveling in Europe don’t have to worry about a myriad of visas and entry requirements and they don’t have to worry about the cost of falling ill because the European Health Insurance Card means they’ll be treated for free or at a reduced cost no matter which country they are in, with students covered for the duration of their course or foreign assignment.
    Strange you missed the sentences immediately preceding that one. Maybe because they completely destroy your point.

    "Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe."
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Mr. Nabavi, I'm reasonably sure that's not how the health card works. It entitles equal treatment to citizens of a given country, doesn't it? You still need travel insurance, after all.

    Which is why she correctly says 'they’ll be treated for free or at a reduced cost'.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    In many respects you can engage with the world as much or even better from outside the EU.

    Membership of a regional organisation is completely disconnected from modernity, welcoming, inclusive, engaged, outward looking etc.
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548



    Young people traveling in Europe don’t have to worry about a myriad of visas and entry requirements and they don’t have to worry about the cost of falling ill because the European Health Insurance Card means they’ll be treated for free or at a reduced cost no matter which country they are in, with students covered for the duration of their course or foreign assignment.

    How many visas do non-EU citizens require to get into the Schengen area? I thought it was just one, and not a large indefinite number.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of m.

    But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Freedom of movement cuts bot

    I am not sure it is that binary.

    So you're running the top 5% need money to motivate them and the bottom 5% don't ?

    No, I am saying that if you reduce com

    But since the EU tends to favour large corporations by stifling competition from smaller companies then competition is going to end up being less.

    By number all cou worse.

    A host of EU member states have liberalised their employment laws over recent years. The EU has not stopped them. Look at Germany, for example. Or Spain. Or Greece. The stand-out is France. But that is a decision the French have taken and it has nothing to do with the EU.

    That's true, but these are countries with sclerotic employment laws to start with. Where the UK is we are on catch up to the rest of Europe and inevitably we will end up where they want us to be, Personally i can't see that helping either employment growth or competition.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684

    tlg86 said:



    I wonder what the penalty would be for anyone entering the US who has a criminal record?

    I once had a retired constituent (middle-class amiable chap) who had forgotten that he had been convicted of breaking a window when he was 16, 50 years earlier, so he ticked the "no convictions" box. He was detained, chained to a chair for several hours, then sent back. It was a big news story at the time. When I complained, the US Embassy said curtly that those were the rules and people who didn't like them were free not to come.

    I wasn't sure whether to be more concerned about the over-reaction or by finding that US customs have routine access to criminal records in Britain going back half a century. In Britain itself, a minor offence like that would have long expired.
    The US justice system is anything but fair; it's punitive, penal and motivated by retribution.

    In fact, it more often reminds me of the 18th Century British legal system (around the time of Garrow) than it does a modern democracy.

    You really really don't want to end up involved with the US authorities.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Nobody was ever allowed into Europe before the EU :smiley:

  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...


    Here's the full text

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation
    Some ludicrous claims in there.
    Which ones?

    Starter for 10

    The cost of flights is down by 40% thanks to EU action...

    Possibly EasyJet know what they are talking about but I guess you know better

    " “The single aviation area gives airlines freedom to fly across Europe,” an easyJet spokesman explained, “and since its introduction passengers have seen fares fall by around 40 per cent and routes increase by 180 per cent.”"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/how-air-fares-might-rise-if-there-was-a-brexit/
    Another example of people making claims about the benefits of the EU that are not true. Just like the Interail rubbish.

    The European Common Aviation Area is not an EU initiative. It started as a series of bilateral agreements between countries and includes many European countries which are not part of the EU.

    I don't think EasyJet are talking about the benefits of the 2006 ECAA but rather the much earlier 1990s air travel liberalisation

    http://www.elfaa.com/documents/ELFAABenefitsofLFAs2004.pdf
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    :smiley:

    We'll be subject to lethal injection if we leave.

    Texas law will prevail, obviously.

    I'm beginning to think Leave could do it. What could Remain throw now? Will the EU magic up another concession at the last minute?

    Impossible surely? It would require the agreement of every one of the other EU nations. Even as things stand, there's probably the odd one nation *cough*, who would prefer to see us leave.

  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,025
    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    Which is why Richard strangely chose not to include that bit.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    'There has been a swing to Remain since The Deal was announced, but not a decisive one.'

    Not according to the Phone polls!
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2016
    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
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    chestnut said:

    Nobody was ever allowed into Europe before the EU :smiley:

    Apart from 6th June 1944.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    chestnut said:

    Nobody was ever allowed into Europe before the EU :smiley:

    The EU has become a religion for some. Everything good is apparently due to being in the EU. I do wonder how the rest of the world manages to keep on going.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Britons will be trapped on these islands forever more. We'll only know about Lazaroti from folk tales.
    chestnut said:

    Nobody was ever allowed into Europe before the EU :smiley:

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    Yes, and outside of the EU we could be an outward looking trading nation and take up our seats on the global trading bodies and set global trading rules rather than be in an insular and inward looking trading bloc which seeks to shut off the outside world because it impoverishes French farmers and German auto workers.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    edited March 2016
    Mr. Nabavi, that's a rather positive spin on "You'll pay the same as what someone living there would pay and it would be remiss not to have travel insurance anyway".
  • Options
    philiph said:

    Let me see now, which highly esteemed PBer produced his inaugural referendum forecast earlier today, which also showed REMAIN as being 8% ahead of LEAVE?

    Was it Jacksie?
    Ah yes, that was he.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,413
    edited March 2016

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    I agree with you on all of that. But it has absolutely nothing to do with his manic desire for EU membership. Indeed continued membership of the EU puts a lot of that at risk.
    Well if he stands on the white cliffs of Dover it's not Minnesota that he sees (or Russia). We have decided to be in a club that we are close to in every way. We export a lot to them and they buy a lot from us. We have a set of trade rules which simplify that trading relationship.

    I have not found an instance of an EU-imposed trading rule in goods or services that prejudices our domestic suppliers.

    We also have free movement of people (and the other three freedoms also). And a common set of values, codified by treaty.

    We also have the ECJ which rules on those rules (as @DavidL said, someone has to).

    We have excused ourselves from any kind of further integration including submitting our fiscal plans to them for approval, or currency integration, and they even allow a goodly amount of their national currency to be transacted through the UK of all places.

    In total, I don't see the problem. I was about to say there isn't a law we couldn't unilaterally introduce which the EU could veto but perhaps there is - I would be interested to know what it could be.

    So in all, I think Dave is doing the right thing.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    tlg86 said:



    I wonder what the penalty would be for anyone entering the US who has a criminal record?

    I once had a retired constituent (middle-class amiable chap) who had forgotten that he had been convicted of breaking a window when he was 16, 50 years earlier, so he ticked the "no convictions" box. He was detained, chained to a chair for several hours, then sent back. It was a big news story at the time. When I complained, the US Embassy said curtly that those were the rules and people who didn't like them were free not to come.

    I wasn't sure whether to be more concerned about the over-reaction or by finding that US customs have routine access to criminal records in Britain going back half a century. In Britain itself, a minor offence like that would have long expired.
    The US justice system is anything but fair; it's punitive, penal and motivated by retribution.

    In fact, it more often reminds me of the 18th Century British legal system (around the time of Garrow) than it does a modern democracy.

    You really really don't want to end up involved with the US authorities.

    I was held at the US border once for being a journalist and not having a visa. I had not realised that the US is one of the few democracies that requires foreign journalists going to the country to cover a story to have one. I was kept in a room with a lot of Latin American illegals for a few hours and then let out with a warning and a mark on my passport. So, it was off to the embassy in London the next time I travelled over there. Now, with a new passport, I no longer bother - I just don't tell them I am a journalist when I enter. So, strictly speaking, I break US law on most of my trips there.

  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,025

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    We have quoted exactly what she said - something you tried to avoid doing as it undermined your case. It is Morgan who was doing the conflation not Runnymede and I. Stop squirming Richard it is very unbecoming.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

    Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.
    Fine and we get to a more honest Govt fronting up all decisions, laws and the consequences of them. We can no longer blame Brussels bureacrats and our civil servants cannot blame a directive for the latest "you must sign this Minister".

    No, we end up with another deal that is just as binding as the one we have now and that will take years to dismantle and renegotiate.

    Only if Cameron negotiates it!
    Seriously the voters can have their say at each GE on what decisions the Govt takes.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited March 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

    Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.
    Fine and we get to a more honest Govt fronting up all decisions, laws and the consequences of them. We can no longer blame Brussels bureacrats and our civil servants cannot blame a directive for the latest "you must sign this Minister".

    No, we end up with another deal that is just as binding as the one we have now and that will take years to dismantle and renegotiate.

    Only if Cameron negotiates it!
    Seriously the voters can have their say at each GE on what decisions the Govt takes.

    As is the case now, of course. We are having this referendum because the Tories won last year.

    It'll be Dave or Boris negotiating the Brexit deal. If I were a Leaver that would worry me :-)

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    edited March 2016
    Cameron is very safe on these figures.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,413
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    Yes, and outside of the EU we could be an outward looking trading nation and take up our seats on the global trading bodies and set global trading rules rather than be in an insular and inward looking trading bloc which seeks to shut off the outside world because it impoverishes French farmers and German auto workers.
    You want global trading rules, now, but find EU ones intolerable??
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209
    edited March 2016

    tlg86 said:



    I wonder what the penalty would be for anyone entering the US who has a criminal record?

    I once had a retired constituent (middle-class amiable chap) who had forgotten that he had been convicted of breaking a window when he was 16, 50 years earlier, so he ticked the "no convictions" box. He was detained, chained to a chair for several hours, then sent back. It was a big news story at the time. When I complained, the US Embassy said curtly that those were the rules and people who didn't like them were free not to come.

    I wasn't sure whether to be more concerned about the over-reaction or by finding that US customs have routine access to criminal records in Britain going back half a century. In Britain itself, a minor offence like that would have long expired.
    That's interesting and a little concerning. Did the people who did the detaining know what the criminal conviction was? Or did they just know that your constituent had a record but did not know what it was for? I'd have hoped that even if they couldn't allow him to enter the US that they'd have at least not treated him like a terror suspect.
  • Options

    I'm beginning to think Leave could do it. ...
    Cameron's taken a huge personal hit as has Osborne. This isn't where they expected to be now. And laughable as it is, Labour managed a 1pt poll lead.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Still confident of a strong Remain win.

    I agree. Quite extraordinary. REMAIN should have a massive lead with all the procedure rigging that they have done.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    It's pretty obvious what Thicky Morgan meant.

    Why you continually embarrass yourself defending these people is a mystery.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,413
    When I read Jack's ARSE this morning I thought that was a reasonable estimate of where things would end up so it is a little surprising (if you believe the polls of course) that it is that close already.

    There is a trend towards Leave. It is not particularly strong and it is not completely consistent but it is there. In this case it has no doubt been significantly exaggerated by the change in methodology. Against that, I suspect that there will be a last minute swing to Remain as the undecideds break their way and decide it is all just too scary (no, no, I mean Leaving is supposedly scary, not remain).

    Will that get us back to where we are now? Maybe, but I think that there is not an insignificant chance that this will be closer than I thought, and possibly even closer than Jack thinks.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    Yes, and outside of the EU we could be an outward looking trading nation and take up our seats on the global trading bodies and set global trading rules rather than be in an insular and inward looking trading bloc which seeks to shut off the outside world because it impoverishes French farmers and German auto workers.
    You want global trading rules, now, but find EU ones intolerable??
    I want to be able to set our trade terms with mid-sized Asian and LatAm nations, not wait for the EU to do it for us and then favour goods trade and ignore trade in services.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    We have quoted exactly what she said - something you tried to avoid doing as it undermined your case. It is Morgan who was doing the conflation not Runnymede and I. Stop squirming Richard it is very unbecoming.

    Absolute crap. She is making two statements:

    "For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life."

    She then gives three examples of that - inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping. If you weren't so ludicrously purblind on the subject, you'd have no difficulty understanding that those are examples of the 'rite of passage' point. This is hardly controversial stuff.

    She then makes the second statement:

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.

    and she goes on to explain how, in her opinion, the EU makes it easier and safer to travel.



  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    glw said:

    chestnut said:

    Nobody was ever allowed into Europe before the EU :smiley:

    The EU has become a religion for some. Everything good is apparently due to being in the EU. I do wonder how the rest of the world manages to keep on going.
    The other day, there was a plan afoot to show that the UK would still be trapped in time had we not joined the Common Market in 1973.

    How did the US, Japan and other far more advanced nations manage to progress whilst outside the EU?
  • Options
    watford30 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    It's pretty obvious what Thicky Morgan meant.

    Why you continually embarrass yourself defending these people is a mystery.
    For the love of Dave?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?
    She explains in the next sentence. Do keep up!
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    'Then there are the opportunities to travel.

    For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life.

    Whether it’s inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping.

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.'

    There is a deliberate effort to conflate inter-railing with EU membership here. Only a cretin would claim otherwise.

    I give up. Plain, unambiguous English, and Richard T and runnymede STILL claim that she said something she didn't say. They'll be saying that she conflated backpacking with the EU next.

    There is no arguing with such wilful blindness.
    Or a complete and utter lack of self-awareness. She said being in the EU makes it easier to do those things, care to explain how?

    Access to healthcare in case of an accident seems a pretty decent one to me.


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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631


    We have quoted exactly what she said - something you tried to avoid doing as it undermined your case. It is Morgan who was doing the conflation not Runnymede and I. Stop squirming Richard it is very unbecoming.

    Absolute crap. She is making two statements:

    "For many young people travelling around the continent is a rite of passage before they settle down into adult life."

    She then gives three examples of that - inter-railing, backpacking or city hopping. If you weren't so ludicrously purblind on the subject, you'd have no difficulty understanding that those are examples of the 'rite of passage' point. This is hardly controversial stuff.

    She then makes the second statement:

    Being in the EU makes it easier and safer to travel around the countries of Europe.

    and she goes on to explain how, in her opinion, the EU makes it easier and safer to travel.



    So make the case, how does being in the EU make it easier to do those things? You should also address your answer to the Swiss federal government.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,413
    edited March 2016
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leave should be worried by the closeness of these polls.

    Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.

    Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.

    I actually think Dave is going to step back from the campaign after his comments about "thinking things over". He can see how much damage he is doing to the party and to our electoral hopes for 2020 by being the front of the Remain campaign.

    Not a chance. This is Cameron's legacy on the line. He clearly believes being an EU member state is the best option for the UK and he is going to do all he can to ensure that the country agrees with him.

    He is trying to shape the Conservative Party into a modern, outward looking, welcoming, broad church (small c) which engages with the world around it.

    Sadly a large minority of his MPs don't share this view.

    I do, however.
    Yes, and outside of the EU we could be an outward looking trading nation and take up our seats on the global trading bodies and set global trading rules rather than be in an insular and inward looking trading bloc which seeks to shut off the outside world because it impoverishes French farmers and German auto workers.
    You want global trading rules, now, but find EU ones intolerable??
    I want to be able to set our trade terms with mid-sized Asian and LatAm nations, not wait for the EU to do it for us and then favour goods trade and ignore trade in services.
    So we can unilaterally determine the specs for the tractors we sell to Thailand? So the EU has one set of specs, the UK another. Poor Thai tractor importers.

    Give me a for instance.
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    rcs1000 said:

    Is it true that Nicky Morgan gave the example of InterRailling as areason to stay in the EU? Tell me it isn't...surely...

    It's a well known fact that there inter-rail pass doesn't include Switzerland or Norway.

    Oh wait.
    But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
    Are voters worried about not having more freedom of movement within the EU or would they favour less? It does seem to me that overall voters are looking for a bit less freedom of movement. But I could be wrong.

    I hugely value my freedom of movement in Europe and the opportunities that creates. I remember how long it used to take to get a work visa for Spain - and how much it cost. I also know how much it benefits our company and, therefore, its employees.
    But are you representative of a large segment of voters? Such as the 65+ or the working class in C1, D or E?

    Absolutely not. I think Leave have a very good shot at winning because in immigration they have by far the most potent calling card. But I also expect that if Leave do win a lot of their voters are going to be hugely disappointed at the Brexit deal they end up with.
    Fine and we get to a more honest Govt fronting up all decisions, laws and the consequences of them. We can no longer blame Brussels bureacrats and our civil servants cannot blame a directive for the latest "you must sign this Minister".

    No, we end up with another deal that is just as binding as the one we have now and that will take years to dismantle and renegotiate.

    Only if Cameron negotiates it!
    Seriously the voters can have their say at each GE on what decisions the Govt takes.

    As is the case now, of course. We are having this referendum because the Tories won last year.
    It'll be Dave or Boris negotiating the Brexit deal. If I were a Leaver that would worry me :-)
    I will not be voting for Boris. I also doubt that Boris will get into the final 2 put to members.
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