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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos Referendum phone poll has the REMAIN lead down to 8%
Ipsos-MORI chart of latest referendum phone poll showing remain with 8% lead pic.twitter.com/2nDahRcxE3
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Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.
Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.
Down from what?
And Leave is holding up and creeping forward.
We've had the NHS, North Korean nuclear war, ISIS and increased roaming phone charges thrown about.
What's left?
That focussed the minds of their opponents and kinda put the SNP in the bind.
Leave will be asked, so on present trends, you're on course to win, so what does Brexit mean, we might get Boris flip flopping again, EEA, and no change in immigration etc, which might put off Leave voters.
So we are told.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3513434/Hijacked-passenger-plane-makes-emergency-landin-Cyprus.html
I am going to blow this plane up....
Oh cool, you have one of those suicide vest thingies....do you mind if I take a selfie?
Today's Project Fear from Leave is an indication of where this fight is going.
It is REMAIN that should be very worried if after weeks of having the full weight of the Government communications machine behind it and a fragmented LEAVE campaign, by rights REMAIN should have a commanding lead. Instead having used almost every conceivable attack line, the trend in the polls has moved towards LEAVE and IMHO LEAVE now has a small lead. A quite remarkable position.
We also have Dave receiving some of his worst personal ratings in months and delivering a lead for Corbyn in one poll.
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/714758667090919424
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/714758499234889728
The claims are absurd and fail any logic. Why would the NHS be worse off? Why would foreign holidays be more expensive? Why would the EU not share intelligence with us to prevent terrorists?
But, I suspect a lot of people who say Remain are actually pretty unlikely to vote. For that reason, I think it is likely to be closer than the phone polls suggest, although I wouldn't have Leave as favourites just yet.
Here's the full text
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/nicky-morgan-leaving-the-eu-risks-a-lost-generation
“I want young people to make sure their voices are heard in this debate – whichever side of the debate they might be on – otherwise they risk having the decision made by other people, their future decided for them, not by them. Elections are decided by the people who turn up”
But by now we know that almost everything said by any politician (especially Conservative politician) who supports Remain will immediately be misreprsented - even on here, and even by people who really, really should know better.
I'm no huge fan of Ms Morgan, but it seems to be a good speech, and well-argued:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/29/nicky-morgan-young-will-suffer-most-if-britain-leaves-eu
It would also avoid adding more wounds to his relationship with the Conservative party.
But I do not want him to take my advice.
smiley face
Has anyone seen a breakdown of young voters by SE class? I suspect the ABC1's have a decent turnout and the C2DE much less so.
And patronising to boot.
No one starts an offensive and intends to end up where Dave is now. It's a massive misjudgement and requires serious rethinking.
Ploughing on isn't an option except for the suicidal.
It's the final fortnight that'll be critical. A fall in sterling (if it's close) will focus minds and automatically do a bit of Remain's work for it.
I'd discount the final polls for a 3-4% swing in favour of Remain to account for bottling and fear on the day.
So, a final poll of 54:46 to Remain probably means a result of 58:42 to Remain.
so young person we've stitched you up with another £18k stealth tax but look you can go interrailing.
If you can afford it that is.
The cost of flights is down by 40% thanks to EU action...
She just happens to be on the side of the argument to you. Disagreeing with someone shouldn't make you think she is speaking misleading bollocks, or patronising.
She's also right about the way in which many young people view the EU, as my 19-year old niece was telling me in no uncertain terms yesterday!
Anyone spot the lack of a joined up campaign plan from Osborne?
Oh wait.
Given the softening up Leave had for the first two weeks of March, I'd say that precludes a landslide but what do I know.
If you're whining, you're losing.
But reading her speech she is talking about freedom of movement in more general terms than the specifics of international rail cards.
Possibly EasyJet know what they are talking about but I guess you know better
" “The single aviation area gives airlines freedom to fly across Europe,” an easyJet spokesman explained, “and since its introduction passengers have seen fares fall by around 40 per cent and routes increase by 180 per cent.”"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/how-air-fares-might-rise-if-there-was-a-brexit/
I must be one of the last Tories on here to say this.
https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/714712880474624002
I do hope Leavers come to their senses after the referendum.
First they put Nicky Morgan up at a union conference and draw the attention of UK news watchers that she is mocked and attacked for her views. Then riding this wave of toxic publicity she opens up as a voice of authority about the EU today....
Genuinely frightening.
A touch less narcissism Mr N.
Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.
Big leads for Remain would be better for Leave as they might induce complacency by Remain.'
Ah yes well I'm sure there is an appropriate spin line for whatever result the polls come out with.
Except she has also crafted the speech to have reference to those who do vote - parents and grandparents
"I’d ask you to think about the impact of that vote, not just on your lives, but on that of your children and grandchildren.
I’d ask you to ask yourselves - what the impact of that leap into the dark will mean for them and others in the next generation.
I want to spend the next few years making sure that we build on the opportunities now available to young people, not trying to repair the damage that a vote to leave would do to them."
But if people are voting to restrict freedom of movement, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
I'd suggest that fellow Tory members here who disagree with you are in full possession of their critical faculties.
The staleness of the EUref arguments is that there are no knock out blows ; in simple terms nobody knows and everybody is spinning.
You really do have to do better than this. And I suggest you stop labelling me as a Leaver (you'll be calling me "mad", "fruitcake" or "frother" next as seems to be irresistible by so many on the Remain side) or I will cease to engage with you on this subject, as I have with others.
Apart from Scotland.
That's a Leave.EU/GO attack line not a Vote Leave one.
Will concede that the agreement with EU and EFTA consumers over flights has been positive...but 40% due to their attack, not buying it.
Remain should be concerned. People lie to phone pollsters. Middle aged and above C2DEs seemed the most common.
The phone polls were less accurate than online ones in identifying Right/Left blocs last May.
Mori had the right (Tory/UKIP) on 45% across it's post-dissolution polls. In the real vote it was 51%
The small swing is a fact, but it's less than Remain might have hoped for.
My assessment of the likely result is based upon my reading of the polling data and conversations with soft eurosceptics, friends, family, strangers and colleagues, albeit all in London and the South East and in social groups AB.
I am conscious that this is a betting site so try and call it how i see it rather than what I'd like to happen.
You are right in your second paragraph. It's a judgement call on a set of unknowns, and sensible, honest people, even of broadly the same political position in other matters, will form different views on the same facts. That is the point I keep repeating.