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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron, surely, is more vulnerable at the moment than Corb
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron, surely, is more vulnerable at the moment than Corbyn
In the picture above are the latest William Hill odds on which of Cameron or Corbyn will stand down first. As can be seen the LAB leader is 4/6 to go first which I think is wrong.
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This is perhaps best illustrated when one googles "Liberal Democrats" and the very first entry which then appears, almost 11 months after last May's General Election is as follows:
"Liberal Democrats www.libdems.org.uk/
The official site of the Liberal Democrats, led by Nick Clegg. Includes news, campaigns, policies, conference information, biographies, email lists, items for your ..."
On reflection however, Mike's probably right in his assessment, bearing in mind that invisible Tim has a maximum of only 7 possible challengers for the leadership, including the taxi driver, of whom six and a half have absolutely no chance of succeeding him. He is likely, therefore, to be around for a very, very long time.
160 minutes
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/29/brexit-remain-can-david-cameron-survive-eu-referendum
Unfortunately, Dave made a huge error of judgement in terms of rushing through the renegotiation process, thereby severely limiting the prospect of achieving meaningful concessions from our EU partners. He then compounded that error by deciding to hold the referendum thereon just four months later ..... it's almost as if he viewed the entire business as being a rather unnecessary irritant, to be dispensed with asap.
So Ms Vance is also completely wrong. It is not up to the LEAVE campaign to say what LEAVE would mean. It is up to Mr Cameron.
Likewise if we go for REMAIN. Will this mean a continuation of carping nagging from the sidelines, as at present, or will Cameron take us into full integration?
I think he ought to come clean with the electors now, before we start to vote.
Given the massive efforts the Tories put into voter targeting at the election, one can only assume that their research told them that certain groups of voters (UKIP?) would be more likely to vote Conservative if Cameron gave notice of his intention to quit.
But that could change.
"Somalis are adept fraudsters and Muslims are inclined to rape?
Just another day on PB comments"
I went to a function last night where Tim Farron was the main man. I liked him. He was a vegetarian and a transparently decent human being as was his audience. He saved his bile for IDS and those in the UK who lack compassion particularly to immigrants.
Then this morning I switched on PB and there was this parallel universe where those mean spirited people from Farron's imagination were alive and posting.
For the Conservative Party, a narrow Remain result - a "ok, let's wait and see" from the electorate - might well be best because it will give the EU issue 5-10 years respite, and hold the party together for now, pending a revisit in the 2020s if things deteriorate. There will be something fore everyone to both take away and hang onto.
But, right now, I don't think there are any "safe" outcomes for Cameron.
1) Cameron wasn't serious about renegotiation (or reckoned his chances of achieving much were very small), so
2) Best get the darn thing out of the way so either it clears the decks for the rest of the term if its REMAIN or its the Tories who negotiate a LEAVE - as the two years under article 50 will be up in this parliament - delaying into 2018 could have led to calls for a GE to let 'the people decide' who should negotiate LEAVE....
He can refresh the parts other politicians can't reach.
I see this morning that Daily Mail has tried to do what US newspapers have so far backed away from:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3513200/Ted-Cruz-dodges-question-s-faithful-wife-endorser-Carly-Fiorina-leaps-insist-declaration-s-not-adulterer-dance-Donald-trump-s-tune.html
#BREAKING: Egypt Air flight from Alexandria to Cairo Hijacked, the flight has been asked to land in Cyprus: (Agencies)
Egypt Air #MS181 was flying from Alexandria to Cairo, requested permission to land at Larnaca #Cyprus. Reportedly carries 82 passengers.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/essex/hi/people_and_places/history/newsid_8499000/8499547.stm
The people involved should still be in jail IMO.
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-27/greece-begins-evacuating-idomeni-border-camp-as-arrivals-slow/7278052
This really ought to make Corbyn more vulnerable. In fact it is possible by the time that the EU referendum comes around that he will already not be leader.
Cameron, in contrast, is very likely to win his referendum albeit at the cost of considerable damage to his party. I don't think this will hit him directly but be more focussed at possible successors, specifically Osborne. If so, and if we assume that Cameron still wants his friend to replace him, then it is likely that Cameron will hang around for quite a while in the hope that things calm down again with a "unity cabinet" in place.
Each of these guesstimates could go wrong and politics is unusually febrile at the moment but taking the most likely scenarios it seems to me that these odds are probably right, certainly not so clearly out of line as to constitute serious value.
...and he is in trouble?
UKIP's Holyrood election campaign has been plunged into chaos after it emerged the party is struggling to meet the official deadline for declaring candidates.
Scottish leader David Coburn insisted candidates would be selected by the party's ruling National Executive Committee.
He was unable to say when the process would be completed.
But said UKIP's Holyrood hopefuls would be unveiled at a campaign and manifesto launch event in Edinburgh on April 7 - six days after the Electoral Commission's deadline for nominations.
The event, said Mr Coburn, will also feature "the world's second best accordionist".
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14388352.UKIP_in_chaos_as_the_party_struggles_to_meet_official_deadline_for_declaring_Holyrood_candidates/?ref=mr&lp=6
Part of the difficulty is campaigning while distancing themselves from either Tory faction.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34222076
I agree that it's likelier Cameron will be off first. He's announced his departure, for a start.
I don't think David Steel has found himself on the wrong side of history, or been derailed by his belief in a sky faerie....
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/19/tim-farron-gay-rights-accused-illiberal-approach-lib-dems
The fact is that the only people that matter in this referendum are Tory politicians. They will decide what happens after 23rd June, no-one else.
HUUUUUUUUUMAAAAAAAAN RIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHTTTTS
According to Youm7 the hijacker initially wanted to land in #Turkey, lack of fuel prevented it. #Cyprus #Egypt
Of course in 40 minutes we get a view from Jacks ARSE4EU which should change the news agenda.
As Robert Harris tweeted watching yesterday's 1966 GE coverage - Labour has gone from an Oxford Double First to two Es at A Level......
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/bbe57aa6-f1dc-11e5-aff5-19b4e253664a.html
Reasons Corbyn might go first:
- The May elections come before the EURef and the May elections could be poor enough for Corbyn to be pressured out, though this looks less likely than it did two months ago.
- If Cameron isn't ousted after the EURef then Corbyn will be the one under pressure, constantly, because he's not very good at the job.
- He's never been ambitious personally and might well not fight to stay, as long as there's a route for his ideas to be embedded within Labour, which there may well be if the leadership rules are changed at this autumn's conference.
Reasons Cameron might go first:
- He could, and quite probably will, lose the EURef. That alone could prompt his resignation but if not, he'd likely face a VoNC from the parliamentary party. He might win that but there's a reasonable chance he wouldn't.
- Even if Remain wins, he could face the same vote if enough of his MPs are unhappy with his campaigning and feel there's an alternative leader who could do a better job.
- If Corbyn isn't ousted and doesn't resign before the GE, Cameron *will* go first.
There are four distinct phases here:
1. May. If Corbyn's going to be ousted straight after the locals, it'll happen within days. I think this is quite unlikely as Khan will probably win in London, the results nationally won't be dire, and the mechanics make it difficult - not least because it'll be hard for his critics to make a meaningful move: they can't resign from his shadow cabinet because they're not in it.
Chances of departure: Corbyn 10%, Cameron 0%
2. June / July. EURef and aftermath. We know the situation re Cameron. It is possible, but unlikely, that Labour's critics of Corbyn might take advantage of that disruption in the Tories to move against Corbyn.
Chances of departure: Corbyn 2%, Cameron 55%
3. Aug 2016 - 2018. Back to politics as normal. If both leaders have come through this far, whatever the result of the EURef, Corbyn will still look by far the less capable of the two. Two and a half years will be a long time to survive, given how much pressure he's been under these last six months alone. He may jump or be pushed. On the other side, lingering resentment over Europe and other matters may come to a head in some temporary crisis.
Chances of departure: Corbyn 70%, Cameron 15%
4. 2019 - 2020. Cameron's pre-announced his departure. It is just possible that he might go back but I suspect the mood in the party will be that it'll be time for him to move on rather than begging him to stay. On top of which, there's the risk of events preempting an organised handover. For Corbyn, the pressure of the forthcoming election would be starting to tell, particularly if a new Tory leader got a bounce in the polls.
Chances of departure: Corbyn 30%, Cameron 95%
Overall odds of first out: roughly Corbyn 35%, Cameron 65%.
30 minutes
Hijacker identified as Ibrahim Samaha #Egypt #Cyprus
#BreakingReport
Kidnapper of #EgyptAir plane only keeps 5 hostages inside plane in #Larnaca.
3 British, 1 Italian, 1 Irishman
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35913972
Not too surprising, but the line that caught my eye was this:
"It says five other nations - Australia, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand - have pledged more than half of their fare share. In contrast, the UK is set to take 22% of its fair share, the US just 7%, and France only 4%."
Sweden, merely over half their fair share? That seems odd given, I think, they had an open door policy.
Not to underestimate the idiocy of many Cons MPs (as @CarlottaVance mentioned) but on balance I think the children will step away from the pan of boiling water.
Plane on ground at Larnaca, most hostages released but a handful of foreigners including Brits still on board with hijacker and crew.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/12206204/EgyptAir-flight-from-Alexandria-to-Cairo-hijacked-live.html
May I ask why?
Just ARSE4EU and ARSE4US this year.
In your world, all immigrants are beautiful, decent people, fleeing persecution and injustice, who are only coming here to enrich our life with their history, arts and culture.
You're both wrong, and you all do the rest of the country a disservice with your extreme views.
Seamus Milne recommends using social media to isolate critics within the Labour Party. https://t.co/nnCGuTJ4IG https://t.co/NrgEm1hHq2