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rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....

Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?

Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum

For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.

100% agree, is why I need to see JackW's turnout projection.

JackW is the Kim Kardashian of the polling world.

Is that a reference to the size of his ARSE?

No, all to do with the interest their arses generate

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

UKIP has suspended Suzanne Evans? Unbelievable.

Yes, I think Davis and Bone should welcome her into the awkward squad and get her to run as a Tory in 2020.

Mass rugby punch up between Royal Navy and French Navy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/12203069/Mass-rugby-punch-up-between-Royal-Navy-and-French-navy.html

So who called who a Gypsy Boy then...

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Max, just returned and seen that post.

For ****'s sake. I hope the teams boycott the whole qualifying session, and instead P3 times have to be used. [Very unlikely].

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Just having my first alcohol of the year!

Whish me lhuck!

You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.

I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Just having my first alcohol of the year!

Whish me lhuck!

It's three in the afternoon here, celebrating Easter a bit early?

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.

Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.

We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.

There'll still be a official leave group until he gets it overturned.

They could apply for an injunction stopping the official group doing anything until the after the judicial review

They can apply.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

UKIP has suspended Suzanne Evans? Unbelievable.

Yes, I think Davis and Bone should welcome her into the awkward squad and get her to run as a Tory in 2020.

Sometimes I think that Farage is a plant for Remain.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.

Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.

We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.

I'm hoping for late June.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Just having my first alcohol of the year!

Whish me lhuck!

You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.

I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?

Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.

Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.

It's funny. I get absolutely no pleasure out of air travel these days, which wasn't always the case.

On the other hand, I find travelling by train an absolute delight.

National - Monmouth Uni

Clinton 48 .. Trump 38
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 40
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 45

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-university-24144

Wanderer said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Just having my first alcohol of the year!

Whish me lhuck!

You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.

I doubt I'll complete a bottle.

It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.

Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.

As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far?

How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?

And Happy Birthday!

The stress of the EU referendum affects is in different ways

I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.

Before I go, I'd like to mention that Horizon on BBC2 last night was actually pretty decent, for the first time in a while. It is well worth catching up on via iPlayer if you can stand a certain amount of sensationalism.

RaRaRasputin said:

I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.

Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

For those who missed it before..

Vegetarian Jeremy Corbyn attends British Kebab Awards as he calls on nation to eat salad with them

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12203045/Vegetarian-Jeremy-Corbyn-attends-British-Kebab-Awards-as-he-calls-on-nation-to-eat-salad-with-them.html

The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.

This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.

That's surely a "send someone from the neutral not negative list" event.

Wanderer said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Just having my first alcohol of the year!

Whish me lhuck!

You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.

I doubt I'll complete a bottle.

It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.

Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.

As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far?

How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?

And Happy Birthday!

Thanks. Still getting blindingly bad headaches, and my short-term memory's f'ed. But at least I've got an excuse when I 'forget' to do things around the house now...

"Did I say I'd vacuum dear? So sorry..."

Mr. Jessop, d'you know if they might yet recover, or is the situation pretty much fixed?

Hope the pain eases, and your memory improves.

Sadiq has spent the last few months publicly distancing himself from Team Corbyn for electoral reasons, yet the actual evidence shows the opposite is true. Last weekend the far-left Corbynista group People’s Momentum held a “Khanpaigning” event in the capital, followed by a ‘Jez We Khan’ party hosted by Owen Jones and top Corbynista MP Clive Lewis. Tonight Momentum are hitting the phones for Sadiq at his Westminster HQ:

http://order-order.com/2016/03/24/momentum-campaigning-hard-for-khan/

'negative matter'

Is that what Jeremy Corbyn is made of?

rcs1000 said:

RaRaRasputin said:

I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.

Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.

You might think that Farage does not want to lose his wages as an MEP along with the other benefits of a chaffeur driven car etc etc.

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Alistair said:

blackburn63 said:

So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.

It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.

You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.

I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.

Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.

I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.

TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.

By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.

Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.

Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.

Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.

Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.

Banks speaks for nobody but Banks.

You're simply making things up.

No, you are simply denying a very obvious fact that Nigel is losing us Votes. Just like any CEO, we can only judge him by his latest actions. Nigel may have been instrumental in getting the vote by forcing the issue with Tory MPs and Dave, but in order to win we need to be ruthless and drop the dead weight. Nigel is dead weight. If UKIP want to have him back after the referendum then that's up to them, I couldn't care less.

I repeat, there is absolutely no evidence that Farage is losing votes for Leave. You don't like him, nor do plenty of others, the same applies to every well know politician.

At last someone stands up for Farage the one man wrecking ball who stops all hope of having a well run UKIP and blocks a single united LEAVE campaign.

RodCrosby said:

Kasich running Trump close in PA

T33 K30 C20
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf

Worth 6 less delegates than Puerto Rico though

Until very recently, Belgium's intelligence agency had just 600 staff, about a third of the number of the neighbouring Netherlands - a country that is not much bigger and has fewer home-grown jihadists who have gone to fight in Syria and Iraq.

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-eu-35891078

rcs1000 said:

RaRaRasputin said:

I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.

Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.

George Galloway as special guest star is still like a crazed fever dream to me.

Uncompromising, fearless and divisive, Labour's new spin doctor Seumas Milne has taken his hard-left ideology into the heart of Westminster. But is Jeremy Corbyn's comrade now calling the shots?

http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/seumas-milne-labour-spin-doctor-jeremy-corbyn

Staines little minion has been doing his homework on Milne.

Its cos Belgium racist innit...

Molenbeek's gangster jihadis

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35890960

blackburn63 said:

Charles said:

He's had her suspended from the party on a technicality and won't be nom!ating her as a candidate for the London Assembly. Her offence appears to be supporting Vote Leave not Leave.EU.

Of it may be internal UK UP issues of which I'm not aware, but hardly symptomatic of peace and harmony

UKIP is in a mess, of that there is no doubt. But for people to suggest Farage is a liability for Leave is simply untrue, there is no evidence to support it.

Farage has an unrivaled appeal to a certain group of voters, but also has strong negatives among many others. His supporters are not sufficient to win it for Leave on its own. He should have an important role by the be leading the campaign. Unfortunately he appears unwilling to accept a role of this nature. The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he promotes is not helpful to leave.

Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

Casino_Royale said:

Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.

williamglenn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indigo said:

Hannan on Project Fear

Somebody actually arguing without the hyerbole, clearly and calmly.

Hannan is just as much a utopianist as the most committed Europhile. His vision of all the countries of Europe just getting along with each other without regard to national interest is a fantasy.

I didn't say I believe his vision, but my point was he managed to make an argument for one side without resorting to all the immigrants are coming is we stay, no all the immigrants will come if we leave, the terrorist will / won't come...3 million jobs will go...etc etc etc which has been the level of the debate so far.

Casino_Royale said:

Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

Perchance, will the author be Nigel Farage..?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Be LEAVE

We all know that's what that message really was....

shiney2 said:

Interesting public meeting in Bedford.

'Are you British?" Five people from the 200 strong (segregated) audience indicate agreement.

Still, they're happy with Dave Hodgson, the Liberal Democrat Mayor of Bedford. So that's alright.

http://tinyurl.com/ow9prdn

"When Dr. Haitham al-Haddad, who was introduced as a scholar of “Islamic sciences”, asked the room if attendees were British, there was a long pause and an uncomfortable murmuring. Dr. Haddad has previously made deeply disparaging remarks about Jewish people, and is even claimed to have said that the late Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden would go to heaven."

Wonder if he has ever been arrested for inciting racial hatred like the moron from Croydon has?

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.

It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"

Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.

It's an interesting feature of this campaign that a large portion of both the Leave and Remain sides are convinced they'll lose.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Israelis believe that Palestinian Muslim youth are being radicalized by Islamic groups through online incitement campaigns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsxAoNPJtog

Or maybe they got radicalized by their treatment at the hands of the Israelis?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/11000115/Right-wing-Israelis-celebrate-the-deaths-of-Gazan-children.html

Roger said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Israelis believe that Palestinian Muslim youth are being radicalized by Islamic groups through online incitement campaigns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsxAoNPJtog

Or maybe they got radicalized by their treatment at the hands of the Israelis?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/11000115/Right-wing-Israelis-celebrate-the-deaths-of-Gazan-children.html

You obviously didn't watch the film....

John_N said:

Wanderer said:

Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.

When they're divided, you chide; when right Leaveniks and left Leaveniks put aside their differences, you chide. They can't do anything right, in your book, can they?

Eh?

John_N said:

What effect will the referendum result have on British emigration? Currently about 0.5% of the population skedaddle each year.

Charles said:

The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.

Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.

I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Betting tip. Put your money on Belarus winning Eurovision

Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…

http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM

I have my £2 on at 770.0

TheScreamingEagles said:

Betting tip. Put your money on Belarus winning Eurovision

Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…

http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM

760/1 on Betfair
Edit: I see Pulpstar has already beaten me to it

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Betting tip. Put your money on Belarus winning Eurovision

Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…

http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM

I have my £2 on at 770.0

I've followed you in. Go Belarus!

Afternoon all

Not sure how much to read into the current polls. REMAIN has a reasonable lead with the phones, much more even online. Yet we still have three months to go which is an eternity. LEAVE has it to do but there's still time in which to do it.

The Budget and IDS resignation has undoubtedly had an effect but it will need other things to sustain that effect. Governments survive these storms by basically governing quietly - doing nothing dramatic and, as the sign at the cobblers shop says "time wounds all heels".

The reputation for governance takes a hit if gaffes and self-made crises become the norm rather than the exception. Some might then argue if the Government can't manage itself, how can it manage the country and as Major and Callaghan found out, nothing goes right and you're on the way out.

Cameron is nowhere near that yet but a sense of being out of control of events is insidious and not always obvious.

taffys said:

JackW said:

Albert Hunt in "Bloomberg" assesses whether Trump will be the Goldwater/McGovern of the 2016 POTUS contest :

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-23/the-case-for-trump-over-clinton-is-a-loser

Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.

And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.

Turnout in primaries is driven by the closeness of the race and has been a poor indicator of the GE. The party with the highest turnout at the primaries has gone on to lose 50% of the generals. High GOP turnout could be equally motivated by people trying to stop Trump. He has largely come through up to now because the anti-Trump vote has been split between Cruz, Rubio & Katich.

I'd actually planned to watch Question Time tonight (well, see how it started) but there isn't one on.

Fiddlesticks.