Mr. Urquhart, I largely agree, but was interested to see what the stances might be on Belgium (and whether shrieks of Islamophobia would arise).
Still, one will survive.
It would be nice to have a proper panel of experts. Although to be honest I think we have probably heard most of the arguments now. Your Douglas Murray / Maajid Nawaz types vs the hand wringers. And ultimately nothing changes, we just go back to the rinse and repeat cycle.
BBC already publishing the "Not Islam / Belgium is terribly racist society" stuff.
Turnout in primaries is driven by the closeness of the race and has been a poor indicator of the GE. The party with the highest turnout at the primaries has gone on to lose 50% of the generals. High GOP turnout could be equally motivated by people trying to stop Trump. He has largely come through up to now because the anti-Trump vote has been split between Cruz, Rubio & Katich.
I believe some of the primary contests are open to registered Independents so that could have an impact.
The election of Jeremy Corbyn has, apparently, brought many new members to the Labour Party but the concensus on here is that Labour are less electable now than when led by Ed Miliband. There is enthusiasm for Corbyn within Labour but less support outside.
Trump enthuses a significant minority but repels a goodly number too. There may well be Democrats who would support Trump - there are also likely to be Republicans who, if faced with a choice between Trump and HRC, will back Mrs Clinton.
If the Tory 'Leavers' in their manic obsessive way not only lost the referendum AND their chancellor AND their most successful leader for 25 years AND the next the general election..........
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.
At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.
Had you told a Conservative backbench MP in September 1987 that not only would Margaret Thatcher not be Prime Minister on December 31st 1990, the MPs would have been the ones to depose her and the Berlin Wall would have come down, he'd have probably tried to have you committed.
Events, dear boy, events, as yet another Conservative Prime Minister once opined.
Cameron is only in danger if and when he is deemed to be a hindrance to Conservative MPs retaining their seats and that were there another leader (Boris ?), said seats could and would be retained.
The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.
Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.
I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
39%?! Good grief that is incredible.
I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.
Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.
I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
39%?! Good grief that is incredible.
I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
Government policy since the eighties is to make London the centre of the world, what do you expect?
On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.
At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.
Cameron is only in danger if and when he is deemed to be a hindrance to Conservative MPs retaining their seats and that were there another leader (Boris ?), said seats could and would be retained.
Who knows on the latter, but on the former he is in a great deal of danger then. Even if they do not represent a majority, you have significant numbers of Tories saying they think he is a liar and betrayer, and not just the usual suspects (although of course them as well). Close to evens at least think he is at least wrong on the most critical issue of the day, and apparently is a lot of members think that. That has to mean plenty will be worried about their seats under Cameron, if their local voters are inclined similarly (and it would seem the things about Cameron that would quiet the unrest, relatively good polling and so on, is diminishing or gone).
It's far from certain a replacement would be better, or even certain that MPs are correct that their seats might be at risk under Cameron (or a Cameroon) if he continues to damage the party (as they see it) - but they seem determined to find out, and it does not seem they will be dissuaded. Since he is not planning to stay on anyway, how does Cameron find the will to fight them off, or marshal the support to do so?
On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.
At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.
Had you told a Conservative backbench MP in September 1987 that not only would Margaret Thatcher not be Prime Minister on December 31st 1990, the MPs would have been the ones to depose her and the Berlin Wall would have come down, he'd have probably tried to have you committed.
And that Thatcher begged Gorbachev to keep the wall standing
On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.
At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.
Had you told a Conservative backbench MP in September 1987 that not only would Margaret Thatcher not be Prime Minister on December 31st 1990, the MPs would have been the ones to depose her and the Berlin Wall would have come down, he'd have probably tried to have you committed.
And that Thatcher begged Gorbachev to keep the wall standing
Spurious nonsense. Next you'll be telling me she invited Jimmy Saville and Augusto Pinochet round for tea at number 10.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
Not sure how much to read into the current polls. REMAIN has a reasonable lead with the phones, much more even online. Yet we still have three months to go which is an eternity. LEAVE has it to do but there's still time in which to do it.
The Budget and IDS resignation has undoubtedly had an effect but it will need other things to sustain that effect. Governments survive these storms by basically governing quietly - doing nothing dramatic and, as the sign at the cobblers shop says "time wounds all heels".
The reputation for governance takes a hit if gaffes and self-made crises become the norm rather than the exception. Some might then argue if the Government can't manage itself, how can it manage the country and as Major and Callaghan found out, nothing goes right and you're on the way out.
Cameron is nowhere near that yet but a sense of being out of control of events is insidious and not always obvious.
The TREND is towards LEAVE - and I suspect that many youngsters (<35) (Pro REMAIN) will be quite surprised when they are exposed to substantial negative publicity about the EU for a change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.
I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
Do you think Hillary will win North Carolina or Florida ?
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
Do you think Hillary will win North Carolina or Florida ?
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
And Trump's huge negative numbers are just a fiction of the pollster's imagination?
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
Not sure what the Suzanne Evans bandwagon is about, to be honest.
Diane James is far more lucid and comes across as far more cogent, IMHO.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.
Perhaps you think in order to get to the White House Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa?
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
Not sure what the Suzanne Evans bandwagon is about, to be honest.
Diane James is far more lucid and comes across as far more cogent, IMHO.
I think they're both very good, Stephen Woolf is excellent too.
I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.
I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.
A D notice would achieve the square root of sod all. His arrival was tweeted almost instantaneously.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
And Trump's huge negative numbers are just a fiction of the pollster's imagination?
Shy Trumpers (Trumpeters?).
You heard it here first.
For each liberal her offends he secures the vote of a Busher or Reganite that would never vote for Romney.
The last 4 presidentials seem to me to have been won by the most radical candidates acceptable to their parties.
Clinton is steady as she goes. Not someone to reach across boundaries.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.
Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?
How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.
Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?
How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.
What do you make Trump's chance of winning the Presidency to be?
On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.
At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.
I am withholding my own judgement on Cameron's future pending his conduct during, and the outcome of, this referendum campaign
His most challenging period in government is likely to be reconciling both party and country after a very narrow Remain win. He may face a vote, but I have my doubts any of the replacements would want to be associated with it. But he would need to respond to the vote. If he were to come out into Downing Street and say that our place in the EU is balanced on a knife edge, and this can only be seen as a vote to stand still and fight any further integration - he might get a breathing space to put his premiership back on track..
I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.
I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.
A D notice would achieve the square root of sod all. His arrival was tweeted almost instantaneously.
Absolutely agree he and his family deserve a holiday. He says he wants time to think and maybe he may take the view to becmore neutral over Europe
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.
Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?
How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.
Don't get too sidetracked by primary turnouts. They're not a reliable indicator.
Divisive figures drive turnout at general elections for both sides but there is simply a limit to Trump's appeal to the diminishing WWC demographic.
Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
And Trump's huge negative numbers are just a fiction of the pollster's imagination?
Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.
The "heir to Blair" again!
The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.
The "heir to Blair" again!
The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
my mum.
she called him a scumbag headed for ruin from day one.
Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.
The "heir to Blair" again!
The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
my mum.
she called him a scumbag headed for ruin from day one.
And she was right, I was referring to Labour voters really. (Perhaps your mum is one)
I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.
I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.
A D notice would achieve the square root of sod all. His arrival was tweeted almost instantaneously.
Absolutely agree he and his family deserve a holiday. He says he wants time to think and maybe he may take the view to becmore neutral over Europe
Yes, he does deserve a holiday. The chances of him being anything less then 100% Remain are vanishingly close to zero.
Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.
The "heir to Blair" again!
The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
my mum.
she called him a scumbag headed for ruin from day one.
And she was right, I was referring to Labour voters really. (Perhaps your mum is one)
ICM's new #EURef poll is first to be carried entirely out after Brussels attacks REMAIN 2% ahead after turnout weighting
Just 47% in ICM poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote suggesting a lower level than general elections
Interestingly low turnout from a betting perspective - how does that 47% who are "10/10 certain to vote "compare with the equivalent percentage for the May 2015 GE?
Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.
The "heir to Blair" again!
The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
The people behind the demon eyes poster? (OK, it was only 19 years ago!)
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.
Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?
How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.
What do you make Trump's chance of winning the Presidency to be?
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
And Trump's huge negative numbers are just a fiction of the pollster's imagination?
The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.
Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.
I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
39%?! Good grief that is incredible.
I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
World cities - and there are really only three or four in the world: New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore - all have very large proportions that are foreign. That is the nature of being a world city.
Do we really believe that Hong Kong's success makes other countries poorer? And even if we did, surely it is better to let - as far as it is possible - individuals make their own decisions.
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.
Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?
How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.
What do you make Trump's chance of winning the Presidency to be?
52-55%
Thanks.
My guesstimate is around 20%. I think he has a chance but I don't think the current Betfair odds are far off.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing his followers do surprises me.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing that ignoramus does surprises me.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing that ignoramus does surprises me.
I would be tempted to attend a pb get together if I thought you would be there.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing that ignoramus does surprises me.
I would be tempted to attend a pb get together if I thought you would be there.
First PB bromance, so sweet.
Woah, oh oh oh oh, oh oh oh caught in a rad bromance
Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
Not at all.
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.
HCWNBPOTUS
You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....
It's a view.
People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.
Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?
How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.
What do you make Trump's chance of winning the Presidency to be?
52-55%
Thanks.
My guesstimate is around 20%. I think he has a chance but I don't think the current Betfair odds are far off.
Would be interested to know what others think.
I guess there is an 80% chance of trump getting the nomination and a 25% chance of him winning I'd he does. So 20% seems right.
The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.
Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.
I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
39%?! Good grief that is incredible.
I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
World cities - and there are really only three or four in the world: New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore - all have very large proportions that are foreign. That is the nature of being a world city.
Do we really believe that Hong Kong's success makes other countries poorer? And even if we did, surely it is better to let - as far as it is possible - individuals make their own decisions.
Societies with lax immigration policies cause a brain drain for the areas that immigrants leave.
In the past people would stay and reform their own political economies.
Would that not be preferable for human development? I would happily sacrifice the 2% (or whatever) immediate growth dip it would cause.
Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing that ignoramus does surprises me.
I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.
I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.
A D notice would achieve the square root of sod all. His arrival was tweeted almost instantaneously.
Absolutely agree he and his family deserve a holiday. He says he wants time to think and maybe he may take the view to becmore neutral over Europe
Yes, he does deserve a holiday. The chances of him being anything less then 100% Remain are vanishingly close to zero.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3tUqRBiMVo
Still, one will survive.
Adam Johnson was arrested last year on suspicion of possessing extreme animal porn, it has emerged
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12202923/Adam-Johnson-to-be-sentenced-for-child-sex-offence.html
BBC already publishing the "Not Islam / Belgium is terribly racist society" stuff.
And male ones at that!!!!!
Is that where to goose someone comes from.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Goose
Mr. Urquhart, aye, I read that article. It was not full of enlightenment.
The election of Jeremy Corbyn has, apparently, brought many new members to the Labour Party but the concensus on here is that Labour are less electable now than when led by Ed Miliband. There is enthusiasm for Corbyn within Labour but less support outside.
Trump enthuses a significant minority but repels a goodly number too. There may well be Democrats who would support Trump - there are also likely to be Republicans who, if faced with a choice between Trump and HRC, will back Mrs Clinton.
I also wonder if my post could be classed as homophobic! If so, and anyone has been offended, I apologise.
How we'd laugh!!!!!!!!
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/why-britain-and-europe-depends-on-migrants/
Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-24/donald-trump-s-tough-but-plausible-path-to-winning-the-white-house
Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.
Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
I've posted in my profile what Sanders needs to make Superdelegates relevant.
It's difficult for him to say the least...
At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.
Even Alexander faced mutiny (as did Caesar, for that matter. Hannibal, it should be noted, did not).
Events, dear boy, events, as yet another Conservative Prime Minister once opined.
Cameron is only in danger if and when he is deemed to be a hindrance to Conservative MPs retaining their seats and that were there another leader (Boris ?), said seats could and would be retained.
I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
And I was an early Cameron advocate.
He has left his party behind to try and govern in the ungovernable centre.
There is no loyalty there.
HCWNBPOTUS
I can exit at any time but given I think he has this I would have gamblers regret if i cashed out for what I could get now
"I don't know, its not easy to tell with goats".
It's far from certain a replacement would be better, or even certain that MPs are correct that their seats might be at risk under Cameron (or a Cameroon) if he continues to damage the party (as they see it) - but they seem determined to find out, and it does not seem they will be dissuaded. Since he is not planning to stay on anyway, how does Cameron find the will to fight them off, or marshal the support to do so?
Cameron is all about the PR. When he can't even manage that, he is a busted flush.
It's a view.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.
His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.
Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
Diane James is far more lucid and comes across as far more cogent, IMHO.
Perhaps you think in order to get to the White House Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa?
A couple of MEPs I can think of are awful.
You heard it here first.
For each liberal her offends he secures the vote of a Busher or Reganite that would never vote for Romney.
The last 4 presidentials seem to me to have been won by the most radical candidates acceptable to their parties.
Clinton is steady as she goes. Not someone to reach across boundaries.
How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.
Remain 45 (+4)
Leave 43 (nc)
ICM's new #EURef poll is first to be carried entirely out after Brussels attacks
REMAIN 2% ahead after turnout weighting
Just 47% in ICM poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote suggesting a lower level than general elections
Divisive figures drive turnout at general elections for both sides but there is simply a limit to Trump's appeal to the diminishing WWC demographic.
Read through the threads of the last 2 weeks and you'll see nobody is interested in EUref.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lSjIG_vy5M
(Apologies for the bombastic video edit. It seems to be the only version on YouTube at the moment.)
she called him a scumbag headed for ruin from day one.
The chances of him being anything less then 100% Remain are vanishingly close to zero.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-demon-eyes_1614441i.jpg
Tory numbers on Leave/Remain = 45:32 (58:42)
I feel like Judas Iscariot, Guy Burgess and Mark Reckless all rolled into one.
Do we really believe that Hong Kong's success makes other countries poorer? And even if we did, surely it is better to let - as far as it is possible - individuals make their own decisions.
My guesstimate is around 20%. I think he has a chance but I don't think the current Betfair odds are far off.
Would be interested to know what others think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bypLwI5AQvY
In the past people would stay and reform their own political economies.
Would that not be preferable for human development? I would happily sacrifice the 2% (or whatever) immediate growth dip it would cause.