PBers will be able to put away their EU debates for another 40 years after next Tuesday when the first ARSE4EU projection will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am ....
Will your ARSE have a turnout figure?
Is the hardest thing to call about this referendum
For me it determines the result but I do not see a way of forecasting it that is distinguishable from Voodoo.
100% agree, is why I need to see JackW's turnout projection.
JackW is the Kim Kardashian of the polling world.
Is that a reference to the size of his ARSE?
No, all to do with the interest their arses generate
So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.
It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.
I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.
TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.
By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.
Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.
Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.
UKIP has suspended Suzanne Evans? Unbelievable.
Yes, I think Davis and Bone should welcome her into the awkward squad and get her to run as a Tory in 2020.
'TBH I think the Conservatives should be rather relieved their ratings are holding up close to GE levels. '
It often takes a week to ten days for the full effect to filter through.
The sample was 19-21 March, i.e. mostly before the IDS resignation. I'd assume that Corbyn's bounce reflected what was generally seen as a fairly focused attack on the Budget. It comes handily for the Mayoral election, where Goldsmith has been campaigning almost exclusively on "don't vote for Khan - he's Corbyn's man".
Incidentally,rather than EU withdrawal, the chart on the last thread from Sam Coates (credit TC PoliticalBetting) suggests an attractive alternative: couldn't we ask UKIP voters plus Express and Mail readers to withdraw to East Anglia?
yes - If the Londoners and Guardian readers withdraw to Molenbeek.
So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.
It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.
I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.
TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.
By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.
Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.
Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.
Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.
Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.
We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.
There'll still be a official leave group until he gets it overturned.
Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.
Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.
We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.
There'll still be a official leave group until he gets it overturned.
They could apply for an injunction stopping the official group doing anything until the after the judicial review
So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.
It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.
I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.
TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.
By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.
Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.
Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.
Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.
Banks speaks for nobody but Banks.
You're simply making things up.
No, you are simply denying a very obvious fact that Nigel is losing us Votes. Just like any CEO, we can only judge him by his latest actions. Nigel may have been instrumental in getting the vote by forcing the issue with Tory MPs and Dave, but in order to win we need to be ruthless and drop the dead weight. Nigel is dead weight. If UKIP want to have him back after the referendum then that's up to them, I couldn't care less.
I repeat, there is absolutely no evidence that Farage is losing votes for Leave. You don't like him, nor do plenty of others, the same applies to every well know politician.
Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.
Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.
We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.
There'll still be a official leave group until he gets it overturned.
They could apply for an injunction stopping the official group doing anything until the after the judicial review
In order for Leave to win I think three things need to happen:
(1) The EU needs to be a clear and present economic basket case (look at polling on the EU in 2011 at the height of the eurozone crisis) (2) We need to have an oven ready Leave proposal (preferably pre-negotiated and ratified) on the table to vote for (3) We need a Leave PM advocating it
At the moment we've got 50% of one, don't have two (even though I think the Government know very well what they'd do) and certainly not three, but we could have via a new Tory leader
It may be that all three fall into place over the next 10 years but not if the issue has been closed down for a generation.
An EU post of yours that I entirely agree with.
2 is the key, I think, but, of course, you can't have 2 without 3.
With that said, I think Leave could win without these things (so I might disagree there). I think that with them Leave would win easily.
So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.
It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.
I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.
TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.
By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.
Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.
Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.
UKIP has suspended Suzanne Evans? Unbelievable.
Yes, I think Davis and Bone should welcome her into the awkward squad and get her to run as a Tory in 2020.
Sometimes I think that Farage is a plant for Remain.
Slightly tangentially, a few weeks ago Alastair Meeks and I suspected that whomever the electoral commission appoints as the Official Leave group, the losing side might take it to judicial review.
Given Arron Banks actions today, that seems very likely if Leave.EU/Grassroots out don't get it.
We might not get an Official Leave group until the start of May and that's got to be good news for Remain.
You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
I doubt I'll complete a bottle.
It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.
Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.
As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far?
You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.
Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
A former partner of mine had same name and birth date as somebody on a US list...oh what fun we had flying into the US. Might as well have booked ahead for a trip to the special place.
You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
I doubt I'll complete a bottle.
It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.
Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.
As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far?
How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?
You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
I doubt I'll complete a bottle.
It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.
Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.
As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far?
How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?
And Happy Birthday!
The stress of the EU referendum affects is in different ways
I repeat, there is absolutely no evidence that Farage is losing votes for Leave. You don't like him, nor do plenty of others, the same applies to every well know politician.
I repeat you just don't want to see it because you are a supporter of Farage. As I said, I didn't really care about him before he started bollocksing up the Leave campaign and I think he played an important role in getting Dave and the rest of the Tory party into giving us a referendum. I'm not anti-Farage like some people, I like that he is able to speak his mind, even if sometimes what he says is insensitive or not PC. He is still dragging down the Leave campaign and needs to take a step back.
As for evidence, inviting Galloway onto the stage as some prominent Leaver was a huge mistake. He is poison to middle England and the BBC have decided to up the ante by including Galloway in their list of people to call up to represent Leave.
As Rob says below, sometimes it feels like he is a Remain plant. Gets us a vote then ensures it is in favour of Remain to shut down the debate for 15-20 years.
I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.
You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.
Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
A former partner of mine had same name and birth date as somebody on a US list...oh what fun we had flying into the US. Might as well have booked ahead for a trip to the special place.
There was a terrorist out there whose used an alias that is very similar to my name.
I'm a nervous flyer and naturally sarcastic, so it can get messy.
Fortunately most of the staff I have to deal with are fine. Best comment
"Terrorists don't fly first class, nor do they bring along their girlfriend, and parents, you're fine to fly"
Before I go, I'd like to mention that Horizon on BBC2 last night was actually pretty decent, for the first time in a while. It is well worth catching up on via iPlayer if you can stand a certain amount of sensationalism.
You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
I maybe be permenantly drinking from 24th June 2016 onwards until..who knows?
Until your holiday, they won't let you board the plane pissed.
Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
A few years back I sailed to Dublin on a tall ship. The crew all disembarked and went into a hotel to get drunk. That evening I went to the airport with the ship's cook who was, to put it politely, out his tree. I kept well away from him at the airport because I was convinced he would not be allowed to board as his behaviour was utterly obnoxious.
He was allowed to fly. When we landed at Southampton he greeted Mrs J and she nearly fainted from the smell as he embraced her (five days of not showering on ship, plus the alcohol).
I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.
Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.
The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.
This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.
The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.
This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.
That's surely a "send someone from the neutral not negative list" event.
Before I go, I'd like to mention that Horizon on BBC2 last night was actually pretty decent, for the first time in a while. It is well worth catching up on via iPlayer if you can stand a certain amount of sensationalism.
You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
I doubt I'll complete a bottle.
It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.
Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.
As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far?
How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?
And Happy Birthday!
Thanks. Still getting blindingly bad headaches, and my short-term memory's f'ed. But at least I've got an excuse when I 'forget' to do things around the house now...
Before I go, I'd like to mention that Horizon on BBC2 last night was actually pretty decent, for the first time in a while. It is well worth catching up on via iPlayer if you can stand a certain amount of sensationalism.
What was it on?
How to control gravitational force and the efforts that have gone into it in the past and what the current ideas behind it are. Concepts like negative matter are touched on as well in an accessible way.
Sadiq has spent the last few months publicly distancing himself from Team Corbyn for electoral reasons, yet the actual evidence shows the opposite is true. Last weekend the far-left Corbynista group People’s Momentum held a “Khanpaigning” event in the capital, followed by a ‘Jez We Khan’ party hosted by Owen Jones and top Corbynista MP Clive Lewis. Tonight Momentum are hitting the phones for Sadiq at his Westminster HQ:
'TBH I think the Conservatives should be rather relieved their ratings are holding up close to GE levels. '
It often takes a week to ten days for the full effect to filter through.
The sample was 19-21 March, i.e. mostly before the IDS resignation. I'd assume that Corbyn's bounce reflected what was generally seen as a fairly focused attack on the Budget. It comes handily for the Mayoral election, where Goldsmith has been campaigning almost exclusively on "don't vote for Khan - he's Corbyn's man".
Incidentally,rather than EU withdrawal, the chart on the last thread from Sam Coates (credit TC PoliticalBetting) suggests an attractive alternative: couldn't we ask UKIP voters plus Express and Mail readers to withdraw to East Anglia?
IDS resigned on the 18th so the fieldwork was in the immediate aftermath. Imo the main driver of this is Tory mud-wrestling.
FWIW 2 to 3 months prior to the Independence referendum which pollster had the most accurate forecast of the lead that No would eventually get? Answer ICM online in July 2014 with 11%.
Re Daniel Hannan, I think he is extremely good at putting a persuasive case for Leave to AB voters, but not so much to the rest of the population. Which is fine, because we need people who can appeal to different sections of the population.
I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.
Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.
You might think that Farage does not want to lose his wages as an MEP along with the other benefits of a chaffeur driven car etc etc.
You're starting early. But I guess you want to be able to keep drinking for seven or eight hours.
I doubt I'll complete a bottle.
It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.
Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.
As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far?
How are you getting on? You were having some concentration / memory problems a couple of weeks ago, I think?
And Happy Birthday!
Thanks. Still getting blindingly bad headaches, and my short-term memory's f'ed. But at least I've got an excuse when I 'forget' to do things around the house now...
"Did I say I'd vacuum dear? So sorry..."
It sounds very unpleasant. I hope it improves soon.
The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.
This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.
He should have talked about vegetarian kebabs rather than falafel. Major error of judgement.
So Farage is the least unpopular leader, sort of contradicts those who call him a liability for Leave.
It is a satisfaction at doing job rating. I'm highly satisfied at Farage leading UKIP because he's a f'ing joke of a man who is pushing them into total irrelevance and couldn't win more than one seat even with millions voting for them because he's a incompetent egotist.
You may consider him incompetent but without him there would be no referendum. If we vote Leave nobody will have done more, his work will be complete.
I understand people don't like him, it goes with the territory.
Well the infighting he is causing in the Leave camp is losing us votes and support. He is actively sabotaging the chances of getting that all important Leave vote. I have never been bothered by Farage, I am now beginning to see why TSE and others around here loathe him.
I'm interested in the evidence that he is causing infighting and losing votes.
TSE and others loathe him because he persuaded Tories to defect.
By not letting reasonable UKIP speakers like Evans have a starring role and instead punishing them for their popularity.
Look at Banks suing Vote Leave over libel or somesuch, if you don't think that is infighting then I'm not sure what counts.
Ah, so we've moved on from Farage to Banks.
Farage hasn't suspended Evans, the UKIP executive have.
Banks, UKIP exec are both just Nigel's mouthpieces.
Banks speaks for nobody but Banks.
You're simply making things up.
No, you are simply denying a very obvious fact that Nigel is losing us Votes. Just like any CEO, we can only judge him by his latest actions. Nigel may have been instrumental in getting the vote by forcing the issue with Tory MPs and Dave, but in order to win we need to be ruthless and drop the dead weight. Nigel is dead weight. If UKIP want to have him back after the referendum then that's up to them, I couldn't care less.
I repeat, there is absolutely no evidence that Farage is losing votes for Leave. You don't like him, nor do plenty of others, the same applies to every well know politician.
At last someone stands up for Farage the one man wrecking ball who stops all hope of having a well run UKIP and blocks a single united LEAVE campaign.
The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.
This is a bit silly - it's the kind of routine engagement that you get booked for weeks in advance; if he'd declined because he's a vegetarian he'd have been criticised for that; if he'd talked about the Budget at a kebab celebration, likewise.
Until very recently, Belgium's intelligence agency had just 600 staff, about a third of the number of the neighbouring Netherlands - a country that is not much bigger and has fewer home-grown jihadists who have gone to fight in Syria and Iraq.
I'm quite staunchly in the Remain camp, but Danny Hannan puts forward the most eloquent case for leaving. He and his type need to be more prominent in the debate.
Him and Suzanne Evans are the stars of the Leave camp. Yet Farage puts George Galloway on stage. Unbelievable.
George Galloway as special guest star is still like a crazed fever dream to me.
FWIW 2 to 3 months prior to the Independence referendum which pollster had the most accurate forecast of the lead that No would eventually get? Answer ICM online in July 2014 with 11%.
Uncompromising, fearless and divisive, Labour's new spin doctor Seumas Milne has taken his hard-left ideology into the heart of Westminster. But is Jeremy Corbyn's comrade now calling the shots?
Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.
And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.
To paraphrase Professor Norpoth I wouldn't trust any media, pundits or current horse-race polls to predict this election right now. Polls are of little use until about September. Even then, some get it wrong. As in 2012 or 2004. Winning primaries is a sign that a candidate has a favorable image. Whatever past gaffes or scandals might affect a candidate have been absorbed into that image by then. Presidential elections are decided by performance in office, demand for change, and personal qualities of the two major party candidates. Right now, the Obama record is not good enough to help Hillary get a 3rd term, as it were. I see a strong groundswell for change (Trump and Sanders appeal to that). Bernie's strong showing in Democratic primaries is a sign of disenchantment with the incumbent party among Democrats.
Obama led Romney on average at this stage and Bush led Kerry
Disgraced footballer Adam Johnson was arrested over possession of animal pornography, it can be revealed for the first time today after he was jailed for six years.
The 28-year-old was then re-arrested on suspicion of possessing extreme pornography but was not charged with the offence as the police investigation focused on his meetings with the girl.
He's had her suspended from the party on a technicality and won't be nom!ating her as a candidate for the London Assembly. Her offence appears to be supporting Vote Leave not Leave.EU.
Of it may be internal UK UP issues of which I'm not aware, but hardly symptomatic of peace and harmony
UKIP is in a mess, of that there is no doubt. But for people to suggest Farage is a liability for Leave is simply untrue, there is no evidence to support it.
Farage has an unrivaled appeal to a certain group of voters, but also has strong negatives among many others. His supporters are not sufficient to win it for Leave on its own. He should have an important role by the be leading the campaign. Unfortunately he appears unwilling to accept a role of this nature. The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he promotes is not helpful to leave.
Somebody actually arguing without the hyerbole, clearly and calmly.
Hannan is just as much a utopianist as the most committed Europhile. His vision of all the countries of Europe just getting along with each other without regard to national interest is a fantasy.
Somebody actually arguing without the hyerbole, clearly and calmly.
Hannan is just as much a utopianist as the most committed Europhile. His vision of all the countries of Europe just getting along with each other without regard to national interest is a fantasy.
I didn't say I believe his vision, but my point was he managed to make an argument for one side without resorting to all the immigrants are coming is we stay, no all the immigrants will come if we leave, the terrorist will / won't come...3 million jobs will go...etc etc etc which has been the level of the debate so far.
The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.
Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.
Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.
It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"
Perchance, will the author be Nigel Farage..?
No Farage's book will be "how the media, vote rigging, illegal immigrants stole the EU referendum...and caused me to get stuck in a massive traffic jam"
"When Dr. Haitham al-Haddad, who was introduced as a scholar of “Islamic sciences”, asked the room if attendees were British, there was a long pause and an uncomfortable murmuring. Dr. Haddad has previously made deeply disparaging remarks about Jewish people, and is even claimed to have said that the late Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden would go to heaven."
Wonder if he has ever been arrested for inciting racial hatred like the moron from Croydon has?
Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.
When they're divided, you chide; when right Leaveniks and left Leaveniks put aside their differences, you chide. They can't do anything right, in your book, can they?
Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.
When they're divided, you chide; when right Leaveniks and left Leaveniks put aside their differences, you chide. They can't do anything right, in your book, can they?
The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.
Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.
I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
Here's prediction: a book will be published within the next 12 months. It may be a political bestseller.
It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"
Suppose Leave win. Things like suing each other and randomly inviting George Galloway will be eagerly studied by aspiring political strategists.
It's an interesting feature of this campaign that a large portion of both the Leave and Remain sides are convinced they'll lose.
I think it's because one side or the other seems to monopolise each advantage. Leave has passion, Remain has organisation; Leave has grassroots, Remain has the establishment and so on. So, it's quite easy to survey the scene and see only the advantages for the other side and go into a "game over" Aliens-style meltdown. That's my excuse anyway.
Not sure how much to read into the current polls. REMAIN has a reasonable lead with the phones, much more even online. Yet we still have three months to go which is an eternity. LEAVE has it to do but there's still time in which to do it.
The Budget and IDS resignation has undoubtedly had an effect but it will need other things to sustain that effect. Governments survive these storms by basically governing quietly - doing nothing dramatic and, as the sign at the cobblers shop says "time wounds all heels".
The reputation for governance takes a hit if gaffes and self-made crises become the norm rather than the exception. Some might then argue if the Government can't manage itself, how can it manage the country and as Major and Callaghan found out, nothing goes right and you're on the way out.
Cameron is nowhere near that yet but a sense of being out of control of events is insidious and not always obvious.
Something smells here, and it smells big time. Republican caucuses and primaries have record turnouts whilst the dems are completely in the doldrums. People queue for hours to get into Trump meetings whilst the dems play to half empty halls.
And yet Trump lags badly in the polls. Hmmmnnn.
Turnout in primaries is driven by the closeness of the race and has been a poor indicator of the GE. The party with the highest turnout at the primaries has gone on to lose 50% of the generals. High GOP turnout could be equally motivated by people trying to stop Trump. He has largely come through up to now because the anti-Trump vote has been split between Cruz, Rubio & Katich.
Comments
Just having my first alcohol of the year!
Whish me lhuck!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/12203069/Mass-rugby-punch-up-between-Royal-Navy-and-French-navy.html
So who called who a Gypsy Boy then...
There'll still be a official leave group until he gets it overturned.
Mr. Max, just returned and seen that post.
For ****'s sake. I hope the teams boycott the whole qualifying session, and instead P3 times have to be used. [Very unlikely].
Trust me, you don't want to end up any no fly lists.
They can apply.
2 is the key, I think, but, of course, you can't have 2 without 3.
With that said, I think Leave could win without these things (so I might disagree there). I think that with them Leave would win easily.
Vegetarian Jeremy Corbyn attends British Kebab Awards as he calls on nation to eat salad with them
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12203045/Vegetarian-Jeremy-Corbyn-attends-British-Kebab-Awards-as-he-calls-on-nation-to-eat-salad-with-them.html
The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.
It was my b'day yesterday, and I wanted my first drink to be a b'day drink, but headaches stopped me. Today I'm headache free (so far!), and Mrs J is off work ill, so I thought opening the bottle was in order.
Probably not medically advisable, but f'it.
As an aside, we've worked out that there hasn't been a single day this year when one of the three of us hasn't been ill. Can we just forget 2016 so far?
On the other hand, I find travelling by train an absolute delight.
Clinton 48 .. Trump 38
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 40
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 45
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-university-24144
And Happy Birthday!
As for evidence, inviting Galloway onto the stage as some prominent Leaver was a huge mistake. He is poison to middle England and the BBC have decided to up the ante by including Galloway in their list of people to call up to represent Leave.
As Rob says below, sometimes it feels like he is a Remain plant. Gets us a vote then ensures it is in favour of Remain to shut down the debate for 15-20 years.
I'm a nervous flyer and naturally sarcastic, so it can get messy.
Fortunately most of the staff I have to deal with are fine. Best comment
"Terrorists don't fly first class, nor do they bring along their girlfriend, and parents, you're fine to fly"
He was allowed to fly. When we landed at Southampton he greeted Mrs J and she nearly fainted from the smell as he embraced her (five days of not showering on ship, plus the alcohol).
Then she met me ...
"Did I say I'd vacuum dear? So sorry..."
Hope the pain eases, and your memory improves.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/24/momentum-campaigning-hard-for-khan/
T33 K30 C20
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf
Answer ICM online in July 2014 with 11%.
Is that what Jeremy Corbyn is made of?
Made my weekend!
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-eu-35891078
http://www.readingeagle.com/news/article/winner-take-some-how-delegates-are-awarded-in-the-pennsylvania-gop-presidential-prirmary
http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/seumas-milne-labour-spin-doctor-jeremy-corbyn
Staines little minion has been doing his homework on Milne.
Wisconsin is the only one that matters at the moment, could go either way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YexyulbC198
Molenbeek's gangster jihadis
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35890960
The 28-year-old was then re-arrested on suspicion of possessing extreme pornography but was not charged with the offence as the police investigation focused on his meetings with the girl.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3507418/Shamed-footballer-Adam-Johnson-leaves-home-time-ahead-sentencing.html
It will be called: "How Leave blew it: the inside story of the British 2016 EU referendum campaign"
'Are you British?" Five people from the 200 strong (segregated) audience indicate agreement.
Still, they're happy with Dave Hodgson, the Liberal Democrat Mayor of Bedford. So that's alright.
http://tinyurl.com/ow9prdn
Wonder if he has ever been arrested for inciting racial hatred like the moron from Croydon has?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/11000115/Right-wing-Israelis-celebrate-the-deaths-of-Gazan-children.html
Belarus’s act Ivan wants to perform naked while flanked by wolves…
http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/eurovision-song-contest-2016-belaruss-act-ivan-wants-to-perform-naked-while-flanked-by-wolves-5771408/#ixzz43q99yrAM
Edit: I see Pulpstar has already beaten me to it
@iainjwatson: 1/2 LBC's Iain Dale asks Suzanne Evans if her lawyer intended to put allegations that Nigel Farage beat his wife in her court challenge
Not sure how much to read into the current polls. REMAIN has a reasonable lead with the phones, much more even online. Yet we still have three months to go which is an eternity. LEAVE has it to do but there's still time in which to do it.
The Budget and IDS resignation has undoubtedly had an effect but it will need other things to sustain that effect. Governments survive these storms by basically governing quietly - doing nothing dramatic and, as the sign at the cobblers shop says "time wounds all heels".
The reputation for governance takes a hit if gaffes and self-made crises become the norm rather than the exception. Some might then argue if the Government can't manage itself, how can it manage the country and as Major and Callaghan found out, nothing goes right and you're on the way out.
Cameron is nowhere near that yet but a sense of being out of control of events is insidious and not always obvious.
Fiddlesticks.