politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Assessing the mood amongst Labour pragmatists

For friendship and nostalgia, I had a dinner last week with 14 veteran campaigners who have mostly been with me in every campaign since 1997. Coincidentally or not, I think I was the only one at the table who had voted for Jeremy Corbyn. The others are pragmatic Labour campaigners who fight every election to win, and turned a safe Tory seat in 1992 (16% margin) into a perpetual marginal.
Comments
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Interesting piece, thanks Nick0
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The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
Well thats one view I suppose....0 -
"I think I was the only one at the table who had voted for Jeremy Corbyn"
Oops !0 -
Interesting, thanks.
If there were a leadership challenge and Corbyn was on the ballot, do you think he would win again?0 -
Sounds like me in 2002.Pulpstar said:"I think I was the only one at the table who had voted for Jeremy Corbyn"
Oops !
It felt like I was the only Tory that had voted for Ken Clarke for leader in 20010 -
Alastair,
"Doesn't the Bible short circuit this by saying it is the innerant word of God and any alterations will bring down plague of famine or other appropriate disaster"
No. A few sects like to think that, but there are two separate and contradictory stories of the creation in the first few pages of Genesis. You're so last fifth century. It's full of useful advice and stories of a wandering, vengeful tribe, and then you've got the New Testament. Have you read that bit - you'll like Revelations0 -
You weren't old chum. I did too, albeit using a proxy as I was then based in Jakarta.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sounds like me in 2002.Pulpstar said:"I think I was the only one at the table who had voted for Jeremy Corbyn"
Oops !
It felt like I was the only Tory that had voted for Ken Clarke for leader in 2001
But Ken was such an oaf - if only he was prepared to modify his Europhilia. He'd have torn the party asunder if he were elected. But all ended well in 2005.0 -
I can't help feeling that Labour campaigners 'cautiously warming to McDonnell' is extremely bad news for the party. It suggests they are still in the early stages of the decline-denial-acceptance-revival sequence.
Having said that, Nick is surely right that pragmatism isn’t quite the same as centrism.0 -
' if only he was prepared to modify his Europhilia'
Hardly likely as that is what defines him. While I find his views repellent I have some respect for him, for sticking to them.
The same can't be said for frauds like John Major, or careerist trimmers like the hapless Sajid Javed.0 -
That's why I got confused the final verses of revelations talk about the penalty for editing the text.CD13 said:Alastair,
"Doesn't the Bible short circuit this by saying it is the innerant word of God and any alterations will bring down plague of famine or other appropriate disaster"
No. A few sects like to think that, but there are two separate and contradictory stories of the creation in the first few pages of Genesis. You're so last fifth century. It's full of useful advice and stories of a wandering, vengeful tribe, and then you've got the New Testament. Have you read that bit - you'll like Revelations
I thought that applied to the whole Bible rather than just revelations.0 -
Congratulations Nick on finding the only 14 Labour campaigners who are pragmatic.0
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McDonnell was, in the bit I saw, quite good today against Osborne, certainly much better than Corbyn was on Budget day. But he needs a full set of Terry Pratchett's Luggage to carry all his baggage about with him. And, fundamentally, he is not willing to address real world problems. He resists every spending cut instinctively but has only unrealistic and extremely optimistic ideas about generating the tax to pay for it.
Labour really need to square this circle. The solution to higher public spending cannot always be borrowing/stealing from our children. It may be higher taxes. SLAB get very little attention these days, even in the Scottish media, but pushing an additional penny in the £ to pay for at least some of what they want shows a road to credibility that Ed never found.0 -
I voted for Jeremy too, but only as £3-erPulpstar said:"I think I was the only one at the table who had voted for Jeremy Corbyn"
Oops !0 -
With all respect I don't think that a group of whom "nobody disliked Corbyn personally" is at all representative of the nation, even if it is representative of the campaigners.
The likes of Miliband etc are generally perceived as well-intentioned if misguided but with Corbyn's extreme views on the country, stability, security and his shall we say interesting friends there is plenty to actually dislike about Corbyn. Let alone his decades of disloyalty to the pragmatic Labour cause.
I'm curious too about the penultimate line, Labour has never been led from the centre-right. Not only were Brown and Miliband definitely of the centre-left but Blair himself was still very much of the centre-left even if he was to the right of the Labour party as a whole. I think it subconsciously betrays a peculiar line of thinking to suggest that Labour is only now not being led by the "centre-right".0 -
If it happened this year? Yes, easily - possibly by more than the 60% he got last time. It would have arisen out of a PLP move which would be seen as an attempted coup - not as bad as an attempt to exclude him from the candidates, but still essentially a demand that the membership reconsider. To give an analogy - Eurosceptics often refer with some disdain to the tendency in EU referendums to "have another one until they get the right answer". It would be seen like that.Cyclefree said:Interesting, thanks.
If there were a leadership challenge and Corbyn was on the ballot, do you think he would win again?
If at some point the membership had become disillusioned with Corbyn, then they might welcome a chance to express it. But they wouldn't like being pushed into it.0 -
Well thats one view I suppose....FrancisUrquhart said:The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
I simply cannot understand why expressing support for terrorism or terrorists is described as an "odd" view. No-one would describe some MP who in the past supported the Nazis or apartheid as having an "odd" view. Repellent would be more accurate. And, yet, standing shoulder to shoulder with people who have shot babies and blown up children is only seen as "odd" in the way that someone who thinks that standing on your head cures baldness might be said to have an "odd" view.
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Although Clarke lost. If you felt like you were the only Tory that had voted for IDS then that'd be equivalent.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sounds like me in 2002.Pulpstar said:"I think I was the only one at the table who had voted for Jeremy Corbyn"
Oops !
It felt like I was the only Tory that had voted for Ken Clarke for leader in 20010 -
Thank you.NickPalmer said:
If it happened this year? Yes, easily - possibly by more than the 60% he got last time. It would have arisen out of a PLP move which would be seen as an attempted coup - not as bad as an attempt to exclude him from the candidates, but still essentially a demand that the membership reconsider. To give an analogy - Eurosceptics often refer with some disdain to the tendency in EU referendums to "have another one until they get the right answer". It would be seen like that.Cyclefree said:Interesting, thanks.
If there were a leadership challenge and Corbyn was on the ballot, do you think he would win again?
If at some point the membership had become disillusioned with Corbyn, then they might welcome a chance to express it. But they wouldn't like being pushed into it.
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I simply cannot understand why expressing support for terrorism or terrorists is described as an "odd" view. No-one would describe some MP who in the past supported the Nazis or apartheid as having an "odd" view. Repellent would be more accurate. And, yet, standing shoulder to shoulder with people who have shot babies and blown up children is only seen as "odd" in the way that someone who thinks that standing on your head cures baldness might be said to have an "odd" view.Cyclefree said:
Well thats one view I suppose....FrancisUrquhart said:The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
or "odd" as in quoting from the book of a mass murderer....Imagine if Osborne had quoted Mein Kampf in the budget.0 -
Alastair,
To be fair to St John of Patmos, he was knocking on a bit, and he'd had a bit of a rough life.
the OT is basically the story of a wandering tribe of sinners and written by a wandering group of sinners. An example to all. The Muslims like the first five chapters where loads of smiting goes on. They're not so keen on the rest.
The NT is different - it's a story of the Jesus movement and sets a very high bar for non-sinners. I like the woman taken in adultery story. A rattling good read.
As with all, the Church decided on which books made it and which didn't.0 -
I once heard an old buffer at my sports club bar refer to "odd chap Hitler".0
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Was it the 'tache?LewisDuckworth said:I once heard an old buffer at my sports club bar refer to "odd chap Hitler".
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I increasingly find Chuka Umunna an interesting character with some interesting things to say. He is no Tony Blair but a party that considered him appropriate for leadership may well be serious about taking power again.
At the moment Labour seem to be more than self indulgent, more interested in their principles (however otherworldly) than winning. The time when Chuka and his ilk are involved in the leadership again will be the time to start paying attention.0 -
0
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Very good, thoughtful and succinct thread.0
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On topic, David Cameron looks more vulnerable to a challenge this year than Jeremy Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn remains rock solid in his power base.0
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Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
Thanks Nick. Very interesting stuff.
This in particular: "pragmatism isn’t quite the same as centrism".
I would say this. To win elections you need a coalition of 36+% of voters, ideally 40+%. You don't have to pitch for the centre to get them but it's a good idea tactically to do that because if you capture the centre you stop the other side from getting those votes and almost force them into a core-vote strategy, which will tend to be a losing one. To that extent I think it's always going to be pragmatic to try to win the centre ground.
However, when one says "centre" one doesn't mean a population of Nick Clegg clones but people who don't buy into left or right ideology and who judge parties primarily on the credibility of their leader and their economic policy.
I think a credible leader could come from any wing of the Labour Party. However, they can't have a history of apologising for the IRA.
The economic platform is tricky. You need to frame the economic debate in terms that Labour can win. I tend to think that you won't succeed in this unless the Tories help you, as they did in 1992. But in principle I think a (relatively) left-wing platform could win. I certainly think you could sell renationalisation of utilities if you present it as something that would benefit consumers and not just producers (and if you actually mean it).0 -
Your first sentence depresses me no end.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, David Cameron looks more vulnerable to a challenge this year than Jeremy Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn remains rock solid in his power base.
Your second sentence makes me want to do a happy dance.0 -
New challenges require new thinking. I say we pivot towards a combination of MENA destabilisation and immigration from the countries affected.
Remembering that our enemies are not discrete groups of people responding to concrete geopolitical realities. No instead the enemy is "hate" and "extremism" and that whilst the challenge of Muslim extremism is real, we can meet it with humanity, courage, and an omnipresent totalitarian surveillance state.
People need to stop pretending Western civilization is in some sort of crisis; it only strengthens Trump.0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
Early days yet.
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If they aren't careful, the (is it) 3 different Leave campaigns will still be saying that in 100 days.MarkHopkins said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
Early days yet.0 -
Mr. L, I think you greatly overestimate Umunna.0
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*cough*Scott_P said:
Interesting that the SNP, who campaign heavily in the rhetoric of a left-wing platform, have bottled actually standing on one at the coming electionWanderer said:in principle I think a (relatively) left-wing platform could win.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/12/10/turning-on-taxes-the-tectonic-plates-of-scotlands-politics-are-moving/
The SNP have been even less ambitious than I anticipated.0 -
We only need to see movement in the phone polls too:FrancisUrquhart said:
Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/7120914444215132170 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!0 -
I simply cannot understand why expressing support for terrorism or terrorists is described as an "odd" view. No-one would describe some MP who in the past supported the Nazis or apartheid as having an "odd" view. Repellent would be more accurate. And, yet, standing shoulder to shoulder with people who have shot babies and blown up children is only seen as "odd" in the way that someone who thinks that standing on your head cures baldness might be said to have an "odd" view.Cyclefree said:
Well thats one view I suppose....FrancisUrquhart said:The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
It's not a view many would approve of, but I can't see how it would mystify you. Labour has it's roots in class struggle rather than patriotism. It's not a huge step from that to see terrorists and soldiers as combatants rather than instinctively supporting the former and condemning the latter.
After all, Britain kills people too. Not only that, but we actively support people who if they were to carry out the activities we support across a border, we would designate as terrorists. To misquote a phrase, when you lie down with dogs, don't criticise others for having fleas.
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Phone or online ?AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
All within MOE for ICM - assume polling done before today's sorry events.Pulpstar said:
Phone or online ?AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
McDonnell did not say a few things about the IRA. he said a lot. All of it supportive.
Days like today show how important it is that political parties interested in winning power have to be sound on national security issues. Labour's current leadership is not sound on national security issues. That is what makes Labour unelectable.
Could someone like me accept a Labour leader to the left of me? Absolutely. Just as with Tony Blair I happily accepted one to the right of me. But there are certain no-no's that are non-negotiable. This is what Labour members have got to get to grips with. They might be happy to shrug things away; normal voters are not. If labour does want to win power that lesson has to be absorbed.
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Belgium authorities releasing information of an individual they want in relation to the bombing.
Tip: CHECK THE WARDROBE....0 -
Tonight's schedule:
Utah caucus (it's online voting too) ends at 5 AM GMT, partial results may come out between 1-3 AM GMT when in-person voting begins and ends.
Expect a Cruz-Sanders victory with Trump 3rd in the low teens, it's WTA if Cruz gets more than 50%.
Arizona primary ends voting at 2 AM GMT.
Expect a Trump-Hillary victory, it's WTA for Trump.
Idaho caucus (democrats only) begins at 1 AM GMT.
Who knows?
Samoa should come sometime by tomorrow afternoon.0 -
Mr. Urquhart, maybe Inspector Clouseau was Belgian, rather than French.0
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I simply cannot understand why expressing support for terrorism or terrorists is described as an "odd" view. No-one would describe some MP who in the past supported the Nazis or apartheid as having an "odd" view. Repellent would be more accurate. And, yet, standing shoulder to shoulder with people who have shot babies and blown up children is only seen as "odd" in the way that someone who thinks that standing on your head cures baldness might be said to have an "odd" view.Cyclefree said:
Well thats one view I suppose....FrancisUrquhart said:The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
It just shows how utterly removed from reality Labour party members are. A real pragmatist, of course, would know that a party with a leader who has expressed consistent and vocal support for the IRA will never get close to power.
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Well Poirot was Belgian, but he immigrated to Britain so he was not available to the Belgian authorities anymore.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, maybe Inspector Clouseau was Belgian, rather than French.
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Despite your first comment, I'm impressed by their optimism.
If they've been with you through the campaign last year when similar optimism led the party into a series of errors, I expect most of them must remember losing in Broxtowe and Gedling by huge amounts in 1992. They must also know we won Sherwood in 1992, but are nearly 5,000 votes behind the Tories.
They will also know the last boundary review removed Gedling (L) and Rushcliffe (C) and would have turned Nottingham South into a Tory-leaning marginal under 2010 results. Prob be a Tory seat by 5-7k if we apply 2015 results. Nottingham East, on the other hand, would probably have a Lab maj of only two or three thousand thousand. On top of that the results of any new review would be worse for Labour, given IER. Locally then, even if we did just as well as last time (we're doing significantly worse so far) we'd be down a seat, and struggling to hold another.
So If I were in your old friends position, I'd be more worried about losing the proposed Nottingham East and South seats locally than optimistic about gaining anywhere, let alone thinking about McDonnell as chancellor.
Complacency comes in many forms, and one of them is refusing to see how bad things are.0 -
Mr. Speedy, a shame. They could've used his little grey cells.0
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Nice and interesting thread Nick. I was approached by a Lib Dem asking for my vote and I said without giving it too much though that I probably would go with them this time.
Later I gave it a lot more thought and concluded that if an election was to be held in the next month I would-for the first time in my life-vote for a Cameron led Tory Party.
Choosing your party is as much as anything deciding who you don't want. I loathe the right wing anti Cameron Tories even more than Farage so my first priority is to keep them out.
I don't like Corbyn either in character or for his priorities. I see him as an opportunist lacking talent or an ability to win but wanting the top job anyway. Rather like Miliband but without the heart.
No one else-least of all the Libs-can be trusted or have any chance of keeping the Johnson/IDS faction out. So it's got to be Cameron0 -
Interesting summary Nick, thanks for sharing.
Reinforces the view that McDonnell is the Corbyn falls under a bus next leader IMHO.0 -
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
Its ok the Belgium security services are on the case....
https://moustachemadness.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/adventures-the-black-island-left-toon.png0 -
Things are only bad if you are a Labour party member or supporter who really wants to win the next general election.HopiSen said:Despite your first comment, I'm impressed by their optimism.
If they've been with you through the campaign last year when similar optimism led the party into a series of errors, I expect most of them must remember losing in Broxtowe and Gedling by huge amounts in 1992. They must also know we won Sherwood in 1992, but are nearly 5,000 votes behind the Tories.
They will also know the last boundary review removed Gedling (L) and Rushcliffe (C) and would have turned Nottingham South into a Tory-leaning marginal under 2010 results. Prob be a Tory seat by 5-7k if we apply 2015 results. Nottingham East, on the other hand, would probably have a Lab maj of only two or three thousand thousand. On top of that the results of any new review would be worse for Labour, given IER. Locally then, even if we did just as well as last time (we're doing significantly worse so far) we'd be down a seat, and struggling to hold another.
So If I were in your old friends position, I'd be more worried about losing the proposed Nottingham East and South seats locally than optimistic about gaining anywhere, let alone thinking about McDonnell as chancellor.
Complacency comes in many forms, and one of them is refusing to see how bad things are.
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Mr. Sen, welcome back.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.0 -
Presumably polling was done before this morning's atrocities?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
Shrieky Meeky will go into overdrive.0 -
They have never been left wing unless you are comparing them to the Tories. They have always ( this century at least ) been centre party. No left wing rubbish and no heartless Tory cruelty , just a fair and balanced positionScott_P said:
Interesting that the SNP, who campaign heavily in the rhetoric of a left-wing platform, have bottled actually standing on one at the coming electionWanderer said:in principle I think a (relatively) left-wing platform could win.
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I would expect American Samoa to go Trump. Northern Mariana did and the Samoans would logically look to curry favour with the nominee.
Today's events might push Trump up into the high teens in Utah, or not.0 -
It just shows how utterly removed from reality Labour party members are. A real pragmatist, of course, would know that a party with a leader who has expressed consistent and vocal support for the IRA will never get close to power.SouthamObserver said:
I simply cannot understand why expressing support for terrorism or terrorists is described as an "odd" view. No-one would describe some MP who in the past supported the Nazis or apartheid as having an "odd" view. Repellent would be more accurate. And, yet, standing shoulder to shoulder with people who have shot babies and blown up children is only seen as "odd" in the way that someone who thinks that standing on your head cures baldness might be said to have an "odd" view.Cyclefree said:
Well thats one view I suppose....FrancisUrquhart said:The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
If support for McDonnell and all his baggage, however qualified, is what passes for middle of the road in the pragmatic wing of the party, it rather suggests that the rest of the party must be completely away with the fairies.0 -
It's not a view many would approve of, but I can't see how it would mystify you. Labour has it's roots in class struggle rather than patriotism. It's not a huge step from that to see terrorists and soldiers as combatants rather than instinctively supporting the former and condemning the latter.Luckyguy1983 said:
I simply cannot understand why expressing support for terrorism or terrorists is described as an "odd" view. No-one would describe some MP who in the past supported the Nazis or apartheid as having an "odd" view. Repellent would be more accurate. And, yet, standing shoulder to shoulder with people who have shot babies and blown up children is only seen as "odd" in the way that someone who thinks that standing on your head cures baldness might be said to have an "odd" view.Cyclefree said:
Well thats one view I suppose....FrancisUrquhart said:The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
After all, Britain kills people too. Not only that, but we actively support people who if they were to carry out the activities we support across a border, we would designate as terrorists. To misquote a phrase, when you lie down with dogs, don't criticise others for having fleas.
UK have supported actively many "terrorists" over the years. Tories pretending they are whiter than white is a real hoot, try Yemen for a starter. Not heard Cameron say anything against his partners there yet other than yes we take cheques.0 -
What happened to the "progressive majority"?malcolmg said:They have never been left wing unless you are comparing them to the Tories. They have always ( this century at least ) been centre party. No left wing rubbish and no heartless Tory cruelty , just a fair and balanced position
@davidtorrance: Reminded of Herbert Morrison's line about "socialism" being whatever a Labour gov does; SNP appear to think "progressive" is whatever SG does0 -
Lol. I've replied to JackW so many times on pb threads that my iPhone now automatically corrects 'arse' to ARSE.Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
LEAVE your fingers out of my ARSE !!Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
Sunil_Prasannan said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Repetition on the scale you use it might make readers think you have OCD.0 -
I'd much prefer it if one of my fingers could REMAIN in your ARSE indefinitely!!JackW said:
LEAVE your fingers out of my ARSE !!Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
The SNP are useful idiots for the Westminster Tories, that's clear.malcolmg said:
They have never been left wing unless you are comparing them to the Tories. They have always ( this century at least ) been centre party. No left wing rubbish and no heartless Tory cruelty , just a fair and balanced positionScott_P said:
Interesting that the SNP, who campaign heavily in the rhetoric of a left-wing platform, have bottled actually standing on one at the coming electionWanderer said:in principle I think a (relatively) left-wing platform could win.
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If the Tories indulge in civil war then Corbyn will continue to get the odd (if not regular) poll lead. Given Corbyn's mandate he is going to be absolutely untouchable if he's getting poll leads.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sen, welcome back.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.
The best way to remove Corbyn early is if everyone sees him to be a failure but that relies upon the Tories not engaging in civil war.0 -
Nick did say that he didn't want to overstate the interest in McDonnell. Sounds like a group where party loyalty is paramount.HopiSen said:Despite your first comment, I'm impressed by their optimism.
If they've been with you through the campaign last year when similar optimism led the party into a series of errors, I expect most of them must remember losing in Broxtowe and Gedling by huge amounts in 1992. They must also know we won Sherwood in 1992, but are nearly 5,000 votes behind the Tories.
They will also know the last boundary review removed Gedling (L) and Rushcliffe (C) and would have turned Nottingham South into a Tory-leaning marginal under 2010 results. Prob be a Tory seat by 5-7k if we apply 2015 results. Nottingham East, on the other hand, would probably have a Lab maj of only two or three thousand thousand. On top of that the results of any new review would be worse for Labour, given IER. Locally then, even if we did just as well as last time (we're doing significantly worse so far) we'd be down a seat, and struggling to hold another.
So If I were in your old friends position, I'd be more worried about losing the proposed Nottingham East and South seats locally than optimistic about gaining anywhere, let alone thinking about McDonnell as chancellor.
Complacency comes in many forms, and one of them is refusing to see how bad things are.
I do wonder though about the insouciance on display. Where's the sense of urgency? "Either Corbyn will break through or he'll move on".
Meanwhile we wake up and find ourselves in the mid-2020s.
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On that basis, long may the civil war continuePhilip_Thompson said:The best way to remove Corbyn early is if everyone sees him to be a failure but that relies upon the Tories not engaging in civil war.
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UK have supported actively many "terrorists" over the years. Tories pretending they are whiter than white is a real hoot, try Yemen for a starter. Not heard Cameron say anything against his partners there yet other than yes we take cheques.malcolmg said:
It's not a view many would approve of, but I can't see how it would mystify you. Labour has it's roots in class struggle rather than patriotism. It's not a huge step from that to see terrorists and soldiers as combatants rather than instinctively supporting the former and condemning the latter.Luckyguy1983 said:
I simply cannot understand why expressing support for terrorism or terrorists is described as an "odd" view. No-one would describe some MP who in the past supported the Nazis or apartheid as having an "odd" view. Repellent would be more accurate. And, yet, standing shoulder to shoulder with people who have shot babies and blown up children is only seen as "odd" in the way that someone who thinks that standing on your head cures baldness might be said to have an "odd" view.Cyclefree said:
Well thats one view I suppose....FrancisUrquhart said:The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
After all, Britain kills people too. Not only that, but we actively support people who if they were to carry out the activities we support across a border, we would designate as terrorists. To misquote a phrase, when you lie down with dogs, don't criticise others for having fleas.
And Thatcher's friends, the Khmer Rouge0 -
Thanks! I think it's been pretty conclusively proven that I do not understand the mindset of the current Labour Party membership!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sen, welcome back.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.
If the party wanted to win an election, it should have deposed it's last two leaders. It didn't. So whether it'll depose another leader who is even more unlikely to win an election is anyone's guess.
I expect Nick is right and that even with all engines on fire, the captain clearly incompetent, the co-pilot talking on the loudspeaker about the IRA and Mao while the stewards looking either manic, terrified or depressed, the prevailing mood on the Labour plane is that it'll all turn out alright, so best not disturb anything.
0 -
LOL, pretty dire when you are down to quoting that tosser.Scott_P said:
What happened to the "progressive majority"?malcolmg said:They have never been left wing unless you are comparing them to the Tories. They have always ( this century at least ) been centre party. No left wing rubbish and no heartless Tory cruelty , just a fair and balanced position
@davidtorrance: Reminded of Herbert Morrison's line about "socialism" being whatever a Labour gov does; SNP appear to think "progressive" is whatever SG does
PS: We will find out very soon who the public believe are progressive party and even you surely know the answer. The rats are scrabbling for the list. Will be easy to play spot the losers.0 -
Keep up Monica we are talking about the real parliament.MonikerDiCanio said:
The SNP are useful idiots for the Westminster Tories, that's clear.malcolmg said:
They have never been left wing unless you are comparing them to the Tories. They have always ( this century at least ) been centre party. No left wing rubbish and no heartless Tory cruelty , just a fair and balanced positionScott_P said:
Interesting that the SNP, who campaign heavily in the rhetoric of a left-wing platform, have bottled actually standing on one at the coming electionWanderer said:in principle I think a (relatively) left-wing platform could win.
PS, it should be Westminster Tory , they only have one.0 -
And Thatcher's friends, the Khmer RougeEPG said:
UK have supported actively many "terrorists" over the years. Tories pretending they are whiter than white is a real hoot, try Yemen for a starter. Not heard Cameron say anything against his partners there yet other than yes we take cheques.malcolmg said:
It's not a view many would approve of, but I can't see how it would mystify you. Labour has it's roots in class struggle rather than patriotism. It's not a huge step from that to see terrorists and soldiers as combatants rather than instinctively supporting the former and condemning the latter.Luckyguy1983 said:
I simply cannot understand why expressing support for terrorism or terrorists is described as an "odd" view. No-one would describe some MP who in the past supported the Nazis or apartheid as having an "odd" view. Repellent would be more accurate. And, yet, standing shoulder to shoulder with people who have shot babies and blown up children is only seen as "odd" in the way that someone who thinks that standing on your head cures baldness might be said to have an "odd" view.Cyclefree said:
Well thats one view I suppose....FrancisUrquhart said:The past comments on the IRA were shrugged off – “every veteran has said a few odd things”.
After all, Britain kills people too. Not only that, but we actively support people who if they were to carry out the activities we support across a border, we would designate as terrorists. To misquote a phrase, when you lie down with dogs, don't criticise others for having fleas.
Pinochet , we could be here all night.0 -
Is Soames hiding something?FrancisUrquhart said:Belgium authorities releasing information of an individual they want in relation to the bombing.
Tip: CHECK THE WARDROBE....0 -
Useful article form Huffpollster :
REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST SEES GOP IN A WEAK POSITION - Stuart Stevens (R): “The simple truth is that there simply aren’t enough white voters in the America of 2016 to win a national election without also getting a substantial share of the non-white vote. Romney won 17 percent of the non-white vote. Depending on white voter turnout, a Republican needs between 25 percent and 35 percent of the non-white vote to win….Only 12 percent of Hispanics have a favorable view of [Donald] Trump with 77 percent unfavorable. Even among Hispanic Republicans, he has a 60 percent unfavorable ranking. Among African Americans, 86 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump. To have even a chance at winning a national election, a nominee must get 90-plus percent of their own party. But one out of every three Republicans view Trump unfavorably….In my view, Donald Trump, if he does claim the party’s mantle, would be a historically weak and vulnerable nominee. But let’s not kid ourselves. Even if John Kasich or Ted Cruz, the remaining two candidates, were to emerge, the advantage is still very much with the Democrats.“0 -
Compare and contrast that barnstormer from Ted Cruz on the last thread with this limp effort from Obama who appears to be trying hard to confirm a fair bit of what Cruz said about him.
https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/712300799850733568
(You can almost hear him muttering to his aide "Where the hell is Belgium")0 -
YES! I agree with Nabavi - for once.Richard_Nabavi said:I can't help feeling that Labour campaigners 'cautiously warming to McDonnell' is extremely bad news for the party. It suggests they are still in the early stages of the decline-denial-acceptance-revival sequence.
0 -
Translation: "That's a very catchy slogan, Sunil. I'm surprised the official "Leave" campaigns haven't adopted it".Roger said:Sunil_Prasannan said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Repetition on the scale you use it might make readers think you have OCD.0 -
Sunil, the best advertising does keep repeating the message.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Translation: "That's a very catchy slogan, Sunil. I'm surprised the official "Leave" campaigns haven't adopted it".Roger said:Sunil_Prasannan said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Repetition on the scale you use it might make readers think you have OCD.
0 -
When the term pragmatist can be applied to someone who shrugs off McDonnell's long-term, vocal support for the IRA as not being important, you know it's not you, it's them. Not that this helps. It's frustrating that such a rotten government has essentially been given free rein to do whatever it pleases by Labour party members. But it is where we are.HopiSen said:
Thanks! I think it's been pretty conclusively proven that I do not understand the mindset of the current Labour Party membership!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sen, welcome back.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.
If the party wanted to win an election, it should have deposed it's last two leaders. It didn't. So whether it'll depose another leader who is even more unlikely to win an election is anyone's guess.
I expect Nick is right and that even with all engines on fire, the captain clearly incompetent, the co-pilot talking on the loudspeaker about the IRA and Mao while the stewards looking either manic, terrified or depressed, the prevailing mood on the Labour plane is that it'll all turn out alright, so best not disturb anything.
0 -
Cameron is a decent person lost in a sea of raving right wing *utters !Roger said:Nice and interesting thread Nick. I was approached by a Lib Dem asking for my vote and I said without giving it too much though that I probably would go with them this time.
Later I gave it a lot more thought and concluded that if an election was to be held in the next month I would-for the first time in my life-vote for a Cameron led Tory Party.
Choosing your party is as much as anything deciding who you don't want. I loathe the right wing anti Cameron Tories even more than Farage so my first priority is to keep them out.
I don't like Corbyn either in character or for his priorities. I see him as an opportunist lacking talent or an ability to win but wanting the top job anyway. Rather like Miliband but without the heart.
No one else-least of all the Libs-can be trusted or have any chance of keeping the Johnson/IDS faction out. So it's got to be Cameron0 -
The expensive ugly Legoland clown house.malcolmg said:
Keep up Monica we are talking about the real parliament.MonikerDiCanio said:
The SNP are useful idiots for the Westminster Tories, that's clear.malcolmg said:
They have never been left wing unless you are comparing them to the Tories. They have always ( this century at least ) been centre party. No left wing rubbish and no heartless Tory cruelty , just a fair and balanced positionScott_P said:
Interesting that the SNP, who campaign heavily in the rhetoric of a left-wing platform, have bottled actually standing on one at the coming electionWanderer said:in principle I think a (relatively) left-wing platform could win.
PS, it should be Westminster Tory , they only have one.0 -
That level of racial division in politics is not healthy.JackW said:Useful article form Huffpollster :
REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST SEES GOP IN A WEAK POSITION - Stuart Stevens (R): “The simple truth is that there simply aren’t enough white voters in the America of 2016 to win a national election without also getting a substantial share of the non-white vote. Romney won 17 percent of the non-white vote. Depending on white voter turnout, a Republican needs between 25 percent and 35 percent of the non-white vote to win….Only 12 percent of Hispanics have a favorable view of [Donald] Trump with 77 percent unfavorable. Even among Hispanic Republicans, he has a 60 percent unfavorable ranking. Among African Americans, 86 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump. To have even a chance at winning a national election, a nominee must get 90-plus percent of their own party. But one out of every three Republicans view Trump unfavorably….In my view, Donald Trump, if he does claim the party’s mantle, would be a historically weak and vulnerable nominee. But let’s not kid ourselves. Even if John Kasich or Ted Cruz, the remaining two candidates, were to emerge, the advantage is still very much with the Democrats.“
Conversely, by the same token, it shows Trump would walk it on the demographics of 1980.0 -
I'm prostate on the floor at such ARSE worship ....Casino_Royale said:
I'd much prefer it if one of my fingers could REMAIN in your ARSE indefinitely!!JackW said:
LEAVE your fingers out of my ARSE !!Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
And in appreciation let me advise you that my first ARSE4EU referendum projection will be published exclusively on PB next Tuesday ....0 -
I find your slogan entertaining.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Translation: "That's a very catchy slogan, Sunil. I'm surprised the official "Leave" campaigns haven't adopted it".Roger said:Sunil_Prasannan said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Imagine if Leave even had a functioning campaign....AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Repetition on the scale you use it might make readers think you have OCD.0 -
In 10 years time, the "terrorists" will be part of the Irish government. Another "terrorist" , someone called Nelson Mandela had more Head of States or Governments than I can remember attend his funeral. Many people genuinely felt for him.SouthamObserver said:
When the term pragmatist can be applied to someone who shrugs off McDonnell's long-term, vocal support for the IRA as not being important, you know it's not you, it's them. Not that this helps. It's frustrating that such a rotten government has essentially been given free rein to do whatever it pleases by Labour party members. But it is where we are.HopiSen said:
Thanks! I think it's been pretty conclusively proven that I do not understand the mindset of the current Labour Party membership!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sen, welcome back.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.
If the party wanted to win an election, it should have deposed it's last two leaders. It didn't. So whether it'll depose another leader who is even more unlikely to win an election is anyone's guess.
I expect Nick is right and that even with all engines on fire, the captain clearly incompetent, the co-pilot talking on the loudspeaker about the IRA and Mao while the stewards looking either manic, terrified or depressed, the prevailing mood on the Labour plane is that it'll all turn out alright, so best not disturb anything.
Someone's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter.
0 -
Indeed. Rather worringly I am really struggling to motivate myself to help either of the campaigns.Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)0 -
I imagine (and I certainly hope) you meant prostrate. But at 115, one can't be sure.JackW said:
I'm prostate on the floor at such ARSE worship ....Casino_Royale said:
I'd much prefer it if one of my fingers could REMAIN in your ARSE indefinitely!!JackW said:
LEAVE your fingers out of my ARSE !!Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
And in appreciation let me advise you that my first ARSE4EU referendum projection will be published exclusively on PB next Tuesday ....0 -
The problem for Labour is that McDonnell's freedom fighters would appear to be the voters terrorists.surbiton said:
In 10 years time, the "terrorists" will be part of the Irish government. Another "terrorist" , someone called Nelson Mandela had more Head of States or Governments than I can remember attend his funeral. Many people genuinely felt for him.SouthamObserver said:
When the term pragmatist can be applied to someone who shrugs off McDonnell's long-term, vocal support for the IRA as not being important, you know it's not you, it's them. Not that this helps. It's frustrating that such a rotten government has essentially been given free rein to do whatever it pleases by Labour party members. But it is where we are.HopiSen said:
Thanks! I think it's been pretty conclusively proven that I do not understand the mindset of the current Labour Party membership!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sen, welcome back.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.
If the party wanted to win an election, it should have deposed it's last two leaders. It didn't. So whether it'll depose another leader who is even more unlikely to win an election is anyone's guess.
I expect Nick is right and that even with all engines on fire, the captain clearly incompetent, the co-pilot talking on the loudspeaker about the IRA and Mao while the stewards looking either manic, terrified or depressed, the prevailing mood on the Labour plane is that it'll all turn out alright, so best not disturb anything.
Someone's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter.0 -
@Indigo - how long is it until Obama flies over to tell us all how to vote?
And will readers of the New York Times be penning lengthy letters to swing voters in Berkshire begging us to stay in the EU?0 -
JohnO said:
I imagine (and I certainly hope) you meant prostrate. But at 115, one can't be sure.JackW said:
I'm prostate on the floor at such ARSE worship ....Casino_Royale said:
I'd much prefer it if one of my fingers could REMAIN in your ARSE indefinitely!!JackW said:
LEAVE your fingers out of my ARSE !!Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
And in appreciation let me advise you that my first ARSE4EU referendum projection will be published exclusively on PB next Tuesday ....
So Seanin what's your take on Osborne ?0 -
It's not as if the GOP didn't know the scale of their demographic problem. They are just putting their fingers in their ears and shouting loudly with the Trumpster being the most raucous and hoping something will turn up. As a POTUS winning strategy it certainly has novelty value.Casino_Royale said:
That level of racial division in politics is not healthy.JackW said:Useful article form Huffpollster :
REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST SEES GOP IN A WEAK POSITION - Stuart Stevens (R): “The simple truth is that there simply aren’t enough white voters in the America of 2016 to win a national election without also getting a substantial share of the non-white vote. Romney won 17 percent of the non-white vote. Depending on white voter turnout, a Republican needs between 25 percent and 35 percent of the non-white vote to win….Only 12 percent of Hispanics have a favorable view of [Donald] Trump with 77 percent unfavorable. Even among Hispanic Republicans, he has a 60 percent unfavorable ranking. Among African Americans, 86 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump. To have even a chance at winning a national election, a nominee must get 90-plus percent of their own party. But one out of every three Republicans view Trump unfavorably….In my view, Donald Trump, if he does claim the party’s mantle, would be a historically weak and vulnerable nominee. But let’s not kid ourselves. Even if John Kasich or Ted Cruz, the remaining two candidates, were to emerge, the advantage is still very much with the Democrats.“
Conversely, by the same token, it shows Trump would walk it on the demographics of 1980.0 -
cough cough cough cough Mr presidentCasino_Royale said:@Indigo - how long is it until Obama flies over to tell us all how to vote?
And will readers of the New York Times be penning lengthy letters to swing voters in Berkshire begging us to stay in the EU?
that's 4cough Obama0 -
Why do you think there's going to be boundary changes, when they would have to be approved by the fractious Tory MPs?HopiSen said:On top of that the results of any new review would be worse for Labour, given IER. Locally then, even if we did just as well as last time (we're doing significantly worse so far) we'd be down a seat, and struggling to hold another.
0 -
He got a letter a couple of days ago from 100 MPs requesting that he butt out, I some how doubt he is going to take their advice. The speech was limp as hell, as usual (and as predicted by Cruz) one key word was entirely missing.Casino_Royale said:@Indigo - how long is it until Obama flies over to tell us all how to vote?
And will readers of the New York Times be penning lengthy letters to swing voters in Berkshire begging us to stay in the EU?0 -
And tell me when Mandela launched a campaign of terrorism in which loss of life was the primary concern?surbiton said:
In 10 years time, the "terrorists" will be part of the Irish government. Another "terrorist" , someone called Nelson Mandela had more Head of States or Governments than I can remember attend his funeral. Many people genuinely felt for him.SouthamObserver said:
When the term pragmatist can be applied to someone who shrugs off McDonnell's long-term, vocal support for the IRA as not being important, you know it's not you, it's them. Not that this helps. It's frustrating that such a rotten government has essentially been given free rein to do whatever it pleases by Labour party members. But it is where we are.HopiSen said:
Thanks! I think it's been pretty conclusively proven that I do not understand the mindset of the current Labour Party membership!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sen, welcome back.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.
If the party wanted to win an election, it should have deposed it's last two leaders. It didn't. So whether it'll depose another leader who is even more unlikely to win an election is anyone's guess.
I expect Nick is right and that even with all engines on fire, the captain clearly incompetent, the co-pilot talking on the loudspeaker about the IRA and Mao while the stewards looking either manic, terrified or depressed, the prevailing mood on the Labour plane is that it'll all turn out alright, so best not disturb anything.
Someone's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter.0 -
I can't wait to see what comes out of EUr ARSE.JackW said:
I'm prostate on the floor at such ARSE worship ....Casino_Royale said:
I'd much prefer it if one of my fingers could REMAIN in your ARSE indefinitely!!JackW said:
LEAVE your fingers out of my ARSE !!Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
And in appreciation let me advise you that my first ARSE4EU referendum projection will be published exclusively on PB next Tuesday ....
In my diary!0 -
Better than that old washed up dump that needs £8 billion to bring it up to spec.MonikerDiCanio said:
The expensive ugly Legoland clown house.malcolmg said:
Keep up Monica we are talking about the real parliament.MonikerDiCanio said:
The SNP are useful idiots for the Westminster Tories, that's clear.malcolmg said:
They have never been left wing unless you are comparing them to the Tories. They have always ( this century at least ) been centre party. No left wing rubbish and no heartless Tory cruelty , just a fair and balanced positionScott_P said:
Interesting that the SNP, who campaign heavily in the rhetoric of a left-wing platform, have bottled actually standing on one at the coming electionWanderer said:in principle I think a (relatively) left-wing platform could win.
PS, it should be Westminster Tory , they only have one.0 -
There lies the the rub ....JohnO said:
I imagine (and I certainly hope) you meant prostrate. But at 115, one can't be sure.JackW said:
I'm prostate on the floor at such ARSE worship ....Casino_Royale said:
I'd much prefer it if one of my fingers could REMAIN in your ARSE indefinitely!!JackW said:
LEAVE your fingers out of my ARSE !!Casino_Royale said:
Imagine how close we could run it if Vote Leave pulled their finger out their ARSE?MP_SE said:
Woohoo.AlastairMeeks said:@NCPoliticsEU · 3m3 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 41 (-2)
LEAVE 43 (+2)
And in appreciation let me advise you that my first ARSE4EU referendum projection will be published exclusively on PB next Tuesday ....0