On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
Welcome to the future of the Western World.
That's the present Sean. In the future we will be stalked through a radioactive wasteland by self-aware robots.
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
that;s enough about London
To be fair, London is quite well mixed and assimilated - not perfect, but OK: there are so many people here of all races it is quite hard for one race/religion to dominate. The real ghettoes in Britain are in Luton, Bradford, etc
Entirely parallel communities. This has to end. We have to make it impossible for the 30% of hardcore Muslims to live here. Ban the burqa, close down their Salafist mosques, prosecute their preachers, put their jihadist sons in jail, abolish any idea of Sharia Law, prosecute cousin marriage very hard, get fucking tough. In the end they will leave: as it will be impossible for them to be "good Muslims" in Britain
The 70% or so of Muslims who are very happy to live in liberal Britain will then be welcome to stay, in mixed communities, and we will all be much happier as a result.
I drive through one every day in Birmingham, there are attempts at assimilation but ever so often you still get a what am I looking at moment.
Billionaire businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz have each added a delegate at the GOP caucus in American Samoa.
Republicans in the U.S. territory elected six delegates at their caucus on Tuesday. They have a total nine delegates, including the territory's three Republican National Committee members.
The delegates are "unbound," meaning they are free to support the candidate of their choice. Party chairman Abe Utu Malae says in an email that two of the delegates have endorsed candidates — one for Trump and one for Cruz.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
I've never been a fan of Brussels - it's a curiously schizophrenic place: an insignificant mid-sized European city, except that both NATO and the EU are based there, which makes it the 'capital of Europe'.
Ah, but the beer...
Luckily you don't have to go there to drink it.....
Aye, you can even get Chimay in the States these days...
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
The issue remains does anyone care enough, large chunks of the electorate don;t. Cameron should have maximised his chances by scheduling it with locals or other elections,
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
They'll be the first to Not Vote when it comes to varying the turnout in any model you have.
If it's a massive turnout then Remain win handily If it's very low then Leave win
In between the difference between Lean and Remain rides a rollercoaster in my mind.
I'm not sold on this theory.
Yes the Leave vote do register a higher (self-reported) certainty to vote. Though we know such self-reporting is flawed. Yes the Leave vote do register a higher share of the elderly vote, whom we know to have higher turnouts.
However the Leave vote also registers a higher share of the C2DE vote, whom we know to have lower turnouts.
In a low turnout election we will have the votes of the elderly (favouring Leave) and the ABC1s (favouring Remain).
I think who turnout favours could depend upon which Leave campaign gets it. Vote Leave seem to be aiming for an effective strategy of aiming for voters with a plethora of concerns, Leave.EU/GO seem to be aiming more at the "immigrants have stolen your job" vote which appeals to people who don't vote in low turnout elections. Low turnout then could be good for Vote Leave but bad for Leave.EU/GO
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
You guys are far too pessimistic. Everything tells me LEAVE is gaining. I still, just, think REMAIN will win, but... ooof. Close.
Just trying to be realistic.
Like I say (and I'm not exaggerating) a lot of lifelong eurosceptic friends of mine who have detested Brussels and the EU for years are going very wobby over the EU ref.
Take a look at the posts of Bob Sykes, AndyJS and even straight down-the-line Brexiters like Peter from Putney - nervous as hell.
All my instincts of my (many) years of experience in political canvassing tell me exactly what that means.
Personally, I wish all of us natural eurosceptics would just straighten up, and face up.
What we've experienced so far from Project Fear is only the hors d'oeuvres
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Billionaire businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz have each added a delegate at the GOP caucus in American Samoa.
Republicans in the U.S. territory elected six delegates at their caucus on Tuesday. They have a total nine delegates, including the territory's three Republican National Committee members.
The delegates are "unbound," meaning they are free to support the candidate of their choice. Party chairman Abe Utu Malae says in an email that two of the delegates have endorsed candidates — one for Trump and one for Cruz.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Yes, but my point is how many ABC1s turnout in what areas versus the rest elsewhere.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
yes me too.
you just accept you did the right thing but you lost
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
France has a specic policy of assimilation rather than multiculturalism, even to the point of refusing to keep statistics on issues like religion. It has neither stopped ghettos forming nor stopped terrorism.
Multiculturism works fine for Chinese, Korean, Hindu, Sikh and Bhuddists. It works fine for Cypriot and Greek Orthodox as well as African Pentocostals and Philipino Catholics. The problem is Islam. Multiculturism requires mutual respect between cultures and that is simply not the case for a substantial percentage of Muslims, whether Bosniaks or Hausa or Arab.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
Glad there's no wobbliness from you, Mr. Pulpstar!
Can you give the contact details of your oestopath to a few of other fellow Leavers please?!
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Yes, but my point is how many ABC1s turnout in what areas versus the rest elsewhere.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
I think ABC1s will turnout at General Election levels everywhere. C2DEs I doubt will.
I live in the North West and am sure that people I know who are engaged in politics and vote as a matter of course will vote in this referendum too, I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise. People who only vote in General Elections on the other hand, I can't be certain either way.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
I'm very probably a LEAVE voter, but in honesty my ideal result is a 50.1% REMAIN victory. That way I don't take the financial hit (lowered London property values) but Europe is forced to submit to British scepticism - mon dieu! they might vote Non in a few years! - and the result is so indecisive we will have another vote in 5-10 years where we DO vote OUT.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Yes, but my point is how many ABC1s turnout in what areas versus the rest elsewhere.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
I've been encouraged by how many of the old families that I've been talking to that are definitely coming out for Leave. Certainly in the North, the South West and the Summer Country (although our representative in Devon spent much of his life in France so isn't entirely reliable)
To fight terrorism we need social workers as much as soldiers
You're aware that it's by the Italian Prime Minister?
Your point being? Does his position give him authority not to be absurd and if so did you think that under Berlusconi?
Strange that you deleted the second part of Nick Palmer's response ("I don't mean that makes it immune from criticism, but it sounded as though you thought it was by some random journalist.") only to pose the very question that the bit you deleted answered.
There's a hint about that in Nick Palmer's post:
NickPalmer Posts: 6,495 7:53PM edited 7:55PM
While my reply was posted at 7:55PM. I didn't delete anything, I quoted everything that was there when I quoted it. I'm not psychic and couldn't know he'd edit in that extra bit.
Yes, guilty. I thought my original comment was a bit so-what, so added the further thought.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
I'm very probably a LEAVE voter, but in honesty my ideal result is a 50.1% REMAIN victory. That way I don't take the financial hit (lowered London property values) but Europe is forced to submit to British scepticism - mon dieu! they might vote Non in a few years! - and the result is so indecisive we will have another vote in 5-10 years where we DO vote OUT.
That's my dream. Speaking purely selfishly.
Then you should vote leave and get on with it. You get a second vote despite what they say. In any event your one vote isnt actually going to change the result.
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
France has a specic policy of assimilation rather than multiculturalism, even to the point of refusing to keep statistics on issues like religion. It has neither stopped ghettos forming nor stopped terrorism.
Multiculturism works fine for Chinese, Korean, Hindu, Sikh and Bhuddists. It works fine for Cypriot and Greek Orthodox as well as African Pentocostals and Philipino Catholics. The problem is Islam. Multiculturism requires mutual respect between cultures and that is simply not the case for a substantial percentage of Muslims, whether Bosniaks or Hausa or Arab.
Parts of Paris - and some other French cities - are much the same. Drancy was a classic example although it is now a museum
Multiculturalism has to go, and assimilation is the future. Inside your home you can speak whatever language you want, worship however you want etc, but in society you have to blend into the national cultural norm. All cultures are not equal.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Yes, but my point is how many ABC1s turnout in what areas versus the rest elsewhere.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
I think ABC1s will turnout at General Election levels everywhere. C2DEs I doubt will.
I live in the North West and am sure that people I know who are engaged in politics and vote as a matter of course will vote in this referendum too, I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise. People who only vote in General Elections on the other hand, I can't be certain either way.
I think ABC1 turnout will be disproportionately higher for those appended to London's economic orbit.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
I'm very probably a LEAVE voter, but in honesty my ideal result is a 50.1% REMAIN victory. That way I don't take the financial hit (lowered London property values) but Europe is forced to submit to British scepticism - mon dieu! they might vote Non in a few years! - and the result is so indecisive we will have another vote in 5-10 years where we DO vote OUT.
That's my dream. Speaking purely selfishly.
What happens if it's a tie?
Replay?
Remain.
Is like a tie in the House of Commons, The Queen has a casting vote, and votes with the Government, as not to create a majority where non exists, as we've already voted in the past to remain a member of the EC/EU, back in 1975
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
France has a specic policy of assimilation rather than multiculturalism, even to the point of refusing to keep statistics on issues like religion. It has neither stopped ghettos forming nor stopped terrorism.
Multiculturism works fine for Chinese, Korean, Hindu, Sikh and Bhuddists. It works fine for Cypriot and Greek Orthodox as well as African Pentocostals and Philipino Catholics. The problem is Islam. Multiculturism requires mutual respect between cultures and that is simply not the case for a substantial percentage of Muslims, whether Bosniaks or Hausa or Arab.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Yes, but my point is how many ABC1s turnout in what areas versus the rest elsewhere.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
I've been encouraged by how many of the old families that I've been talking to that are definitely coming out for Leave. Certainly in the North, the South West and the Summer Country (although our representative in Devon spent much of his life in France so isn't entirely reliable)
That is encouraging.
I do spend 95% of my time in London and the South-East, which is all mainly girly-men who do tend to go all Gaylord Ponceyboots for fear of losing a fiver.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
I'm very probably a LEAVE voter, but in honesty my ideal result is a 50.1% REMAIN victory. That way I don't take the financial hit (lowered London property values) but Europe is forced to submit to British scepticism - mon dieu! they might vote Non in a few years! - and the result is so indecisive we will have another vote in 5-10 years where we DO vote OUT.
That's my dream. Speaking purely selfishly.
What happens if it's a tie?
Replay?
Remain.
Is like a tie in the House of Commons, The Queen has a casting vote, and votes with the Government, as not to create a majority where non exists, as we've already voted in the past to remain a member of the EC/EU, back in 1975
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
yes me too.
you just accept you did the right thing but you lost
And you have no regrets, and a clean conscience.
I have a horrible feeling that all natural eurosceptics who bottle it will regret it for a very long time, possibly for the rest of their lives.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Yes, but my point is how many ABC1s turnout in what areas versus the rest elsewhere.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
I think ABC1s will turnout at General Election levels everywhere. C2DEs I doubt will.
I live in the North West and am sure that people I know who are engaged in politics and vote as a matter of course will vote in this referendum too, I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise. People who only vote in General Elections on the other hand, I can't be certain either way.
I think ABC1 turnout will be disproportionately higher for those appended to London's economic orbit.
Why?
London quite possibly has a higher share of its population as ABC1s in the first place, which if it does would mean higher turnout anyway even if turnout by social grouping is consistent, but why would ABC1s in the rest of the country be less likely to vote?
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
7
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
that;s enough about London
To be fair, London is quite well mixed and assimilated - not perfect, but OK: there are so many people here of all races it is quite hard for one race/religion to dominate. The real ghettoes in Britain are in Luton, Bradford, etc
Entirely parallel communities. This has to end. We have to make it impossible for the 30% of hardcore Muslims to live here. Ban the burqa, close down their Salafist mosques, prosecute their preachers, put their jihadist sons in jail, abolish any idea of Sharia Law, prosecute cousin marriage very hard, get fucking tough. In the end they will leave: as it will be impossible for them to be "good Muslims" in Britain
The 70% or so of Muslims who are very happy to live in liberal Britain will then be welcome to stay, in mixed communities, and we will all be much happier as a result.
I drive through one every day in Birmingham, there are attempts at assimilation but ever so often you still get a what am I looking at moment.
Enoch Powell was WRONG. Let it be said. He was obsessed with black - "picaninny" - immigration. And in the end this immigration has been moderately successful, with some serious negatives (streetcrime, gangrape) - but, nonetheless, I'd say it's been a positive on the whole.
Islamic immigration? Almost entirely negative. Everything Muslims do could have been done by Hindus or Chinese or whatever. And they bring just despicable negatives.
Enough. End. Stop.
Virtually all gun crime in the UK is among the 3% black population. But Muslim immigration is undoubtedly worse. Even after the female genital mutilation, terrorism and sexual crime, their low incomes mean they are drains on the state.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
yes me too.
you just accept you did the right thing but you lost
And you have no regrets, and a clean conscience.
I have a horrible feeling that all natural eurosceptics who bottle it will regret it for a very long time, possibly for the rest of their lives.
Ah 4kit the celt in me says stuff em, every so often the establishment needs a sharp poke in the eye so they remember we can still get the pitchforks out.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
'Multiculturalism has to go, and assimilation is the future.'
It's too late for that. It might have been possible 40-50 years ago when the numbers were much smaller and the parallel societies hadn't been set up. But they have now, and short of Ferdinand and Isabella style policies there is nothing we can do about it.
To fight terrorism we need social workers as much as soldiers
You're aware that it's by the Italian Prime Minister?
Your point being? Does his position give him authority not to be absurd and if so did you think that under Berlusconi?
Strange that you deleted the second part of Nick Palmer's response ("I don't mean that makes it immune from criticism, but it sounded as though you thought it was by some random journalist.") only to pose the very question that the bit you deleted answered.
There's a hint about that in Nick Palmer's post:
NickPalmer Posts: 6,495 7:53PM edited 7:55PM
While my reply was posted at 7:55PM. I didn't delete anything, I quoted everything that was there when I quoted it. I'm not psychic and couldn't know he'd edit in that extra bit.
Yes, guilty. I thought my original comment was a bit so-what, so added the further thought.
Indeed, given the close timings we must have both been thinking a similar thing at the same time. Your edit answered my reply before you could have had a chance to read it. Weird how that goes some time.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Yes, but my point is how many ABC1s turnout in what areas versus the rest elsewhere.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
I think ABC1s will turnout at General Election levels everywhere. C2DEs I doubt will.
I live in the North West and am sure that people I know who are engaged in politics and vote as a matter of course will vote in this referendum too, I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise. People who only vote in General Elections on the other hand, I can't be certain either way.
I think ABC1 turnout will be disproportionately higher for those appended to London's economic orbit.
Why?
London quite possibly has a higher share of its population as ABC1s in the first place, which if it does would mean higher turnout anyway even if turnout by social grouping is consistent, but why would ABC1s in the rest of the country be less likely to vote?
Sorry, I should have said higher for Remain. But it might also be higher period.
It's the salience of the fear factor.
I think the political worries of London permeate out through those who work and socialise there, to those who live in the home counties, because that's where most of the big banks and big businesses are based, who will be the most sceptical about Brexit, losing access to the single market and in fear for their jobs and net wealth (incorrectly, of course).
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Don't knows mean Remain.
Does don't know mean Remain or Won't Vote? That is the question.
Remain if they do vote, otherwise won't vote.
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
ABC1s vote. If Project Fear wins the votes of the ABC1s then that will win them the referendum not because they've turned out but because they've voted for Remain. Leave need to aim to neutralise Project Fear and get as many ABC1 votes as possible.
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
Yes, but my point is how many ABC1s turnout in what areas versus the rest elsewhere.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
I've been encouraged by how many of the old families that I've been talking to that are definitely coming out for Leave. Certainly in the North, the South West and the Summer Country (although our representative in Devon spent much of his life in France so isn't entirely reliable)
That is encouraging.
I do spend 95% of my time in London and the South-East, which is all mainly girly-men who do tend to go all Gaylord Ponceyboots for fear of losing a fiver.
The only one I was surprised by was the very metropolitan art critic scion of the North who is organising quite actively in the North and South West. Despite living all his life in London.
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
that;s enough about London
To be fair, London is quite well mixed and assimilated - not perfect, but OK: there are so many people here of all races it is quite hard for one race/religion to dominate. The real ghettoes in Britain are in Luton, Bradford, etc
Entirely parallel communities. This has to end. We have to make it impossible for the 30% of hardcore Muslims to live here. Ban the burqa, close down their Salafist mosques, prosecute their preachers, put their jihadist sons in jail, abolish any idea of Sharia Law, prosecute cousin marriage very hard, get fucking tough. In the end they will leave: as it will be impossible for them to be "good Muslims" in Britain
The 70% or so of Muslims who are very happy to live in liberal Britain will then be welcome to stay, in mixed communities, and we will all be much happier as a result.
I drive through one every day in Birmingham, there are attempts at assimilation but ever so often you still get a what am I looking at moment.
I lived in Sparkbrook when I was a student in Brum in the 80s. Our house was the only one with white people in it for streets around. Everyone was Pakistani. But there were no burqas, no hint of menace, no sign of radicalism. It was safe as houses. I bet it's not like that now. Something has changed.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
No, it isn't.
Explain exactly how in their approach you think they can be considerably more effective given a) their opposition, b) the political environment they are working in and c) the operational environment they are working in.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
that;s enough about London
To be fair, London is quite well mixed and assimilated - not perfect, but OK: there are so many people here of all races it is quite hard for one race/religion to dominate. The real ghettoes in Britain are in Luton, Bradford, etc
Entirely parallel communities. This has to end. We have to make it impossible for the 30% of hardcore Muslims to live here. Ban the burqa, close down their Salafist mosques, prosecute their preachers, put their jihadist sons in jail, abolish any idea of Sharia Law, prosecute cousin marriage very hard, get fucking tough. In the end they will leave: as it will be impossible for them to be "good Muslims" in Britain
The 70% or so of Muslims who are very happy to live in liberal Britain will then be welcome to stay, in mixed communities, and we will all be much happier as a result.
I drive through one every day in Birmingham, there are attempts at assimilation but ever so often you still get a what am I looking at moment.
I lived in Sparkbrook when I was a student in Brum in the 80s. Our house was the only one with white people in it for streets around. Everyone was Pakistani. But there were no burqas, no hint of menace, no sign of radicalism. It was safe as houses. I bet it's not like that now. Something has changed.
Yes, and I still don't understand why.
Let me be clear: plenty of Pakistani girls are gorgeous.
Why should they be off limits to the rest of us?
(can't believe I just said that.. I'm doing a robert and running away.. before I get in trouble, both from pb and my wife)
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
No, it isn't.
Explain exactly how in their approach you think they can be considerably more effective given a) their opposition, b) the political environment they are working in and c) the operational environment they are working in.
Shame the politicians into acting. The military and intelligence agencies do it over here all the time.
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
that;s enough about London
To be fair, London is quite well mixed and assimilated - not perfect, but OK: there are so many people here of all races it is quite hard for one race/religion to dominate. The real ghettoes in Britain are in Luton, Bradford, etc
Entirely parallel communities. This has to end. We have to make it impossible for the 30% of hardcore Muslims to live here. Ban the burqa, close down their Salafist mosques, prosecute their preachers, put their jihadist sons in jail, abolish any idea of Sharia Law, prosecute cousin marriage very hard, get fucking tough. In the end they will leave: as it will be impossible for them to be "good Muslims" in Britain
The 70% or so of Muslims who are very happy to live in liberal Britain will then be welcome to stay, in mixed communities, and we will all be much happier as a result.
I drive through one every day in Birmingham, there are attempts at assimilation but ever so often you still get a what am I looking at moment.
I lived in Sparkbrook when I was a student in Brum in the 80s. Our house was the only one with white people in it for streets around. Everyone was Pakistani. But there were no burqas, no hint of menace, no sign of radicalism. It was safe as houses. I bet it's not like that now. Something has changed.
It's much more islamic with a community drawn from across the world. The top end of the A3400 is the somali bit, The centre has many more afghans and iraqis and there are quite a number of african women in burqas presumably from East Africa or Nigeria. Pakistani community is still there.
'Multiculturalism has to go, and assimilation is the future.'
It's too late for that. It might have been possible 40-50 years ago when the numbers were much smaller and the parallel societies hadn't been set up. But they have now, and short of Ferdinand and Isabella style policies there is nothing we can do about it.
Forced assimilation is the only route we can take. Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe. Those who can't live under those rules are free to go to somewhere that will allow them to live the way they want.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
I think this referendum has developed into, by far, the nastiest political event of my lifetime. For this I blame both sides equally and I now fear both possible outcomes equally (whereas weeks ago I strongly favoured one outcome but feared neither) - I just don't see either side accepting defeat gracefully now and I certainly don't see how the nation can hope to heal with both sides trying to open the wounds further. There's just too much hatred and bile flying around.
I've been pondering the matter a lot during my time away from PB.
So I'll not be voting in the referendum. I want no further part in this matter. Wild horses won't drag me into the polling station.
Sorry if that all sounds over dramatic but it's how I'm honestly feeling. I can't guess if it's just me or if many/any other people are starting to feel this way though.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
No, it isn't.
Explain exactly how in their approach you think they can be considerably more effective given a) their opposition, b) the political environment they are working in and c) the operational environment they are working in.
That wasn't the point.
I said they seemed somewhat.. ineffective. You said that was *entirely* incorrect, which isn't true, is it?
If they were fully effective, there wouldn't have been any terrorist attacks.
FWIW, I haven't been impressed with what I've read of their reactions today, or how and where they got their intelligence. Sluggish and undynamic.
If you know differently, it's for you to convince me.
Here's a hint: rather pompously dismissing any opinion you don't agree with doesn't quite cut it.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
No, it isn't.
Explain exactly how in their approach you think they can be considerably more effective given a) their opposition, b) the political environment they are working in and c) the operational environment they are working in.
Shame the politicians into acting. The military and intelligence agencies do it over here all the time.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.
Thanks! I think it's been pretty conclusively proven that I do not understand the mindset of the current Labour Party membership!
If the party wanted to win an election, it should have deposed it's last two leaders. It didn't. So whether it'll depose another leader who is even more unlikely to win an election is anyone's guess.
I expect Nick is right and that even with all engines on fire, the captain clearly incompetent, the co-pilot talking on the loudspeaker about the IRA and Mao while the stewards looking either manic, terrified or depressed, the prevailing mood on the Labour plane is that it'll all turn out alright, so best not disturb anything.
When the term pragmatist can be applied to someone who shrugs off McDonnell's long-term, vocal support for the IRA as not being important, you know it's not you, it's them. Not that this helps. It's frustrating that such a rotten government has essentially been given free rein to do whatever it pleases by Labour party members. But it is where we are.
In 10 years time, the "terrorists" will be part of the Irish government. Another "terrorist" , someone called Nelson Mandela had more Head of States or Governments than I can remember attend his funeral. Many people genuinely felt for him.
Someone's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter.
And tell me when Mandela launched a campaign of terrorism in which loss of life was the primary concern?
But the true terrorists in South Africa were the Apartheid Government member imposing their will on the country.
no, they werent. They were many things but not terrorists.
The people living in Soweto and elsewhere suffering ongoing serious violence from the security forces would disagree.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
Sorry, I should have said higher for Remain. But it might also be higher period.
It's the salience of the fear factor.
I think the political worries of London permeate out through those who work and socialise there, to those who live in the home counties, because that's where most of the big banks and big businesses are based, who will be the most sceptical about Brexit, losing access to the single market and in fear for their jobs and net wealth (incorrectly, of course).
Oh I agree Remain may be higher in and around London but I'm not sure Turnout as a whole will be (for the ABC1 subgroup).
That is why Leave need to target and not write off the ABC1 vote. Its not a nationally homogenous group but it is a group that will turn out and vote and certainly could vote Leave.
I think today has finally made the general populations of all European countries, but probably not the politicians, realise that something has to change. For all that Obama, Cameron and their ilk tell us that planes and drones have destabilised and hurt ISIS in Syria and Iraq, and that we must stand shoulder to shoulder, declare Je suis Tin Tin, and light up national landmarks in the colours of the Belgian flag, it just isn't working, and we know it isn't working. The terrorists might well have an affinity with ISIS in some godforsaken, bombed out hell hole in Syria, but they're already here, in Europe, killing innocent people going about their daily business, and the cold hard facts are that they are organised enough to carry out an attack in Brussels, at a time when Belgium is in the grip of man hunts and police raids. The governments of Europe have got to understand that radical Islam is the key problem. It's not young Hindus blowing up trains, it's not disaffected Quakers strolling around shooting passers by. It's young Muslim men. Governments need to take hard, difficult decisions to combat the threat that a particular strain of Islam is to us. It will not be pleasant. It will cause trouble and hardship for the vast majority of law abiding, peaceful Muslims in Europe, but still, it needs to be done-here, now, in this country and others.
'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
his legacy will be one of debt.
No that was labour
Is our debt smaller than under Brown ? Do we still have a huge deficit ?
I think this referendum has developed into, by far, the nastiest political event of my lifetime. For this I blame both sides equally and I now fear both possible outcomes equally (whereas weeks ago I strongly favoured one outcome but feared neither) - I just don't see either side accepting defeat gracefully now and I certainly don't see how the nation can hope to heal with both sides trying to open the wounds further. There's just too much hatred and bile flying around.
I've been pondering the matter a lot during my time away from PB.
So I'll not be voting in the referendum. I want no further part in this matter. Wild horses won't drag me into the polling station.
Sorry if that all sounds over dramatic but it's how I'm honestly feeling. I can't guess if it's just me or if many/any other people are starting to feel this way though.
Do you think the nation will need to heal? I don't think the nation is stressed about it.
Do you think recent Conservative tribulations makes Corbyn's position any more at risk? If the Conservative Party (post-referendum) indulges in a civil war, Labour (with a better leader) could be in a very good position.
Thanks! I think it's been pretty conclusively proven that I do not understand the mindset of the current Labour Party membership!
If the party wanted to win an election, it should have deposed it's last two leaders. It didn't. So whether it'll depose another leader who is even more unlikely to win an election is anyone's guess.
I expect Nick is right and that even with all engines on fire, the captain clearly incompetent, the co-pilot talking on the loudspeaker about the IRA and Mao while the stewards looking either manic, terrified or depressed, the prevailing mood on the Labour plane is that it'll all turn out alright, so best not disturb anything.
When the term pragmatist can be applied to someone who shrugs off McDonnell's long-term, vocal support for the IRA as not being important, you know it's not you, it's them. Not that this helps. It's frustrating that such a rotten government has essentially been given free rein to do whatever it pleases by Labour party members. But it is where we are.
In 10 years time, the "terrorists" will be part of the Irish government. Another "terrorist" , someone called Nelson Mandela had more Head of States or Governments than I can remember attend his funeral. Many people genuinely felt for him.
Someone's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter.
And tell me when Mandela launched a campaign of terrorism in which loss of life was the primary concern?
But the true terrorists in South Africa were the Apartheid Government member imposing their will on the country.
no, they werent. They were many things but not terrorists.
The people living in Soweto and elsewhere suffering ongoing serious violence from the security forces would disagree.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
Totally agreed!
The complete reversal from Labour's legacy of time and again increasing the jobs tax and not caring about business, to one of the most pro-business (And thus pro-investment and pro-growth) Chancellors in a long time will be felt for a long time further to come.
No wonder private sector employment is at its highest ever level. Now we need to see a Chancellor whether it be Osborne or someone else finish the job, post a surplus and then I'd love to see the jobs tax completely eliminated.
It's worth reminding people of one of the reasons why some western propagandists use the term "Islamic State" to denote the state that currently has territory in what until western intervention a few years ago were areas administered by the republics of Iraq, Syria and Libya.
Usually they employ the term without the definite article to make it sound unsettling. Compare, say, Pakistan or Afghanistan, which they never refer to as "Islamic Republic". Interesting twist, that. Not sure there are any precedents.
The state calls itself the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham. Translating "Sham" as "Syria", but then only using its initial letter, Western propagandists used to say "ISIS". The connotations were of a foreign scary deity from long ago that some nutcases still worship. When the order came down, they changed "ISIS" to "ISIL". That's still an acronym, of course, and for the extremely few people who wondered what the "L" stood for, the idea was that by claiming the Levant (a term known to British people in the context of the distant past, including the time of the crusades), the said state wants to extend its territory to areas currently administered by Lebanon and Israel.
Here's what I want to stress.
The state's official name starts with "The Islamic State". That's basically the same as what the names of many other states start with, including some that are very friendly with the US (the Afghan one is even a puppet of the US), although in their cases they say "Republic" rather than "State".
That's wrapping. It's like "United Kingdom".
The referent of the main part of the name of the state is geographical: Iraq and Sham.
They're not serious about world domination. That must be someone else that people are mixing them up with.
Sure, yes, the khilafa... But...the Ottomans, okay?
Actually there is a lot of apocalypticism in this particular group's presentation to its own market. It wouldn't surprise me if within 10 years they announce the coming of the Mahdi. They already call one of their publications "Dabiq", which is similar to Christians putting put a publication called "Armageddon".
Did I mention that Muslims believe that at the End of Times, Jesus will come again? Maybe in another post I'll cover that
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
his legacy will be one of debt.
No that was labour
Is our debt smaller than under Brown ? Do we still have a huge deficit ?
Osborne has simply maintained Browns policies.
Corbyn and McDonnell would make it look like petty cash
I think this referendum has developed into, by far, the nastiest political event of my lifetime. For this I blame both sides equally and I now fear both possible outcomes equally (whereas weeks ago I strongly favoured one outcome but feared neither) - I just don't see either side accepting defeat gracefully now and I certainly don't see how the nation can hope to heal with both sides trying to open the wounds further. There's just too much hatred and bile flying around.
I've been pondering the matter a lot during my time away from PB.
So I'll not be voting in the referendum. I want no further part in this matter. Wild horses won't drag me into the polling station.
Sorry if that all sounds over dramatic but it's how I'm honestly feeling. I can't guess if it's just me or if many/any other people are starting to feel this way though.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
his legacy will be one of debt.
No that was labour
Is our debt smaller than under Brown ? Do we still have a huge deficit ?
Osborne has simply maintained Browns policies.
Corbyn and McDonnell would make it look like petty cash
Certainly. But the fact remains voting for the lesser of two evils still means voting for evil.
'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
his legacy will be one of debt.
No that was labour
Is our debt deficit smaller than under Brown ? Do we still have a huge deficit ?
Osborne has simply maintained Browns policies.
Fixed your mistake since a Chancellor can change the deficit not simply change the debt. Schoolboy error on your part. Our deficit is considerably smaller yes.
As for maintaining Brown's policies that is just plain ignorant. Brown increased real spending every single year and real terms spending more than doubled under Brown.
Osborne has actually reduced real terms spending not just once but time and again.
It is not possible for him to be any more different than Brown.
There does seem to be trouble sprouting up everywhere.
Take a city with ghettos where the population has not assimilated due to 'diversity and multiculturalism', combine that with high youth employment, poverty, lack of hope, feeling like second class citizens, and you have a great foundation.
that;s enough about London
To be fair, London is quite well mixed and assimilated - not perfect, but OK: there are so many people here of all races it is quite hard for one race/religion to dominate. The real ghettoes in Britain are in Luton, Bradford, etc
Entirely parallel communities. This has to end. We have to make it impossible for the 30% of hardcore Muslims to live here. Ban the burqa, close down their Salafist mosques, prosecute their preachers, put their jihadist sons in jail, abolish any idea of Sharia Law, prosecute cousin marriage very hard, get fucking tough. In the end they will leave: as it will be impossible for them to be "good Muslims" in Britain
The 70% or so of Muslims who are very happy to live in liberal Britain will then be welcome to stay, in mixed communities, and we will all be much happier as a result.
I drive through one every day in Birmingham, there are attempts at assimilation but ever so often you still get a what am I looking at moment.
I lived in Sparkbrook when I was a student in Brum in the 80s. Our house was the only one with white people in it for streets around. Everyone was Pakistani. But there were no burqas, no hint of menace, no sign of radicalism. It was safe as houses. I bet it's not like that now. Something has changed.
We have elevated them to a protected position. A protected species has very few predators or fears.
We protect their rights, language, religion, difference and culture. We go out of our way not to upset them, we accept them under all circumstances.
We have lost permission to treat them with humour - that may insult, we can not insult, that is discrimination. If we can not show our ridicule of a lifestyle revolving around the practices of 800 years ago without inviting a visit from police, then we have lost our most potent social tool to keep society cohesive. Ridicule, humour and non PC comments are significant tools in directing behaviour towards societal norms. The young in particular move to conformity to the norm rather than becoming a beacon of oddity with peers.
So we have another poll with leave ahead. Can anyone explain why remain is such a hot favourite?
Same reason Trump was seeming so unlikely for so long. People just assume it is unlikely rather than the evidence showing it is.
I started off assuming that Remain would win 2:1 and that I would vote Remain.
Now it may be bias because I've changed my mind but the Remain campaign right now is quite crap and Leave could realistically win.
I want Leave to win, but even I think Remain will win.
But, if Leave do win, then it will seem inevitable with hindsight. The old order appears immoveable, until it moves.
I couldn't agree more.
Yes indeed. To be a successful punter you have to divorce your own view of what you want to happen from what you think will happen. But I am finding it quite hard. A few months ago I was sure I would vote remain and also pretty sure remain would win. I am now not 100% sure if I will vote remain and I am coming to think that leave will win.
I will vote "leave".
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
I'm very probably a LEAVE voter, but in honesty my ideal result is a 50.1% REMAIN victory. That way I don't take the financial hit (lowered London property values) but Europe is forced to submit to British scepticism - mon dieu! they might vote Non in a few years! - and the result is so indecisive we will have another vote in 5-10 years where we DO vote OUT.
That's my dream. Speaking purely selfishly.
What happens if it's a tie?
Replay?
Remain.
Is like a tie in the House of Commons, The Queen has a casting vote, and votes with the Government, as not to create a majority where non exists, as we've already voted in the past to remain a member of the EC/EU, back in 1975
Pedant alert.
The Queen has no vote in the House.
The Speaker does, and in the event of a tie votes for the status quo.
I would get out more, but posting on PB is much more fun.
'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.
Indeed. You have to wonder why politicians have so far refused to implement similar suggestions.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
his legacy will be one of debt.
No that was labour
Is our debt deficit smaller than under Brown ? Do we still have a huge deficit ?
Osborne has simply maintained Browns policies.
Fixed your mistake since a Chancellor can change the deficit not simply change the debt. Schoolboy error on your part. Our deficit is considerably smaller yes.
As for maintaining Brown's policies that is just plain ignorant. Brown increased real spending every single year and real terms spending more than doubled under Brown.
Osborne has actually reduced real terms spending not just once but time and again.
It is not possible for him to be any more different than Brown.
Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.
FWIW I started out thinking that REMAIN will win but as time goes on, despite the advantages REMAIN has with: the Govt machinery, the backing of the establishment (except the Queen) and no single LEAVE campaign, I am moving towards a belief in LEAVE.
Here are my assumptions on voting Leave Remain Con voters 55% 45% Lab voters 35% 65% UKIP voters 95% 5% SNP voters 10% 90% LD voters 30% 70% NI voters 36% 64% Others 40% 60%
Governments need to take hard, difficult decisions to combat the threat that a particular strain of Islam is to us. It will not be pleasant. It will cause trouble and hardship for the vast majority of law abiding, peaceful Muslims in Europe, but still, it needs to be done-here, now, in this country and others.
The Muslims in my school (staff and students) hate Isis for this very reason. They also dislike the singularly irreligious things they do too - rape, theft, murder, drug abuse, interpreting the Quran despite not being madrasah trained, etc. - but the trouble they cause for other Muslims is the kicker.
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.
I believe Yokel is connected to spooks somewhere in Northern Ireland in his line of work. With the Belgian security services appearing to be somewhat ineffective, yet @yokel arguing they were not - the only conclusion I can draw is that Belgium is an impossible country at the moment to effectively stop terrorism in.
On Ch4, journalist just said that people in Belgium used to think terrorist attacks would never happen here because there was a "understanding" between the authorities and the known Jahadi's....that neither would bother each other.
Spoken like a true out of touch metro elitist.
Brussels seems rotten to the core.
The Belgian security services do seem to be somewhat... ineffective.
This is entirely incorrect.
Is it the word 'somewhat' you take issue with?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
Make sure you're back here on Sunday, I've got two threads you're going to lovr
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
The budget passing today with it's pro business measures including corporation tax at 17% will put rocket boosters under business, and in my opinion not unduly effected by the result of the referendum either way. While George Osborne will not be chancellor post the referendum his legacy will be of a dynamic business environment creating jobs and taxes into the end of this Parliament
his legacy will be one of debt.
No that was labour
Is our debt smaller than under Brown ? Do we still have a huge deficit ?
Osborne has simply maintained Browns policies.
Corbyn and McDonnell would make it look like petty cash
Certainly. But the fact remains voting for the lesser of two evils still means voting for evil.
Not sure that I would agree with that and my grandchildren would certainly not agree
"I would love to get him in a boxing ring with a pair of gloves on and box his ears, that's what I would like to do," said Mr Ashley when asked about Mr Miliband's comments.
Do you think the nation will need to heal? I don't think the nation is stressed about it.
The Conservative Party on the other hand ...
Another three months of this??? Yes, I do think the nation will be in a very bad way. As for the Conservative Party... who cares?
You may be surprised post 23rd June just how the conservative party shares cabinet with both sides in an act of unity. We will see but tonight the conservative party seems to have got their act together
The Muslims in my school (staff and students) hate Isis for this very reason. They also dislike the singularly irreligious things they do too - rape, theft, murder, drug abuse, interpreting the Quran despite not being madrasah trained, etc. - but the trouble they cause for other Muslims is the kicker.
That's the same in pretty much the entire Muslim world. Most Muslims want to see Daesh wiped out.
Well done Nick Palmer, its not the first time I've complimented you for commenting in a polite if partisan way.
I'm interested in the mood music on here, Remain are tetchy and defensive, Leave are cautiously optimistic. The anoraks talk of "direction of travel", for those of us that campaigned to leave the EU long before the side issues of Calais, Brussels, immigration and straight bananas, we're feeling very comfortable.
I think this referendum has developed into, by far, the nastiest political event of my lifetime. For this I blame both sides equally and I now fear both possible outcomes equally (whereas weeks ago I strongly favoured one outcome but feared neither) - I just don't see either side accepting defeat gracefully now and I certainly don't see how the nation can hope to heal with both sides trying to open the wounds further. There's just too much hatred and bile flying around.
I've been pondering the matter a lot during my time away from PB.
So I'll not be voting in the referendum. I want no further part in this matter. Wild horses won't drag me into the polling station.
Sorry if that all sounds over dramatic but it's how I'm honestly feeling. I can't guess if it's just me or if many/any other people are starting to feel this way though.
You are exactly the type of person I've been talking of for ages, no real feelings either way, appalled by the dreadful campaigning.
Its why Leave will win on a low turnout.
Best wishes btw, you speak for millions, good for you.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DQsG3TKQ0I
OTOH Trump's turnout numbers are Yuuuge.
On the other he is polling behind Hillary in !Utah!
The assumption is that Project Fear will motivate everyone to vote. Personally, I think it will motivate a good chunk of ABC1s, but not everybody.
Yes the Leave vote do register a higher (self-reported) certainty to vote. Though we know such self-reporting is flawed.
Yes the Leave vote do register a higher share of the elderly vote, whom we know to have higher turnouts.
However the Leave vote also registers a higher share of the C2DE vote, whom we know to have lower turnouts.
In a low turnout election we will have the votes of the elderly (favouring Leave) and the ABC1s (favouring Remain).
I think who turnout favours could depend upon which Leave campaign gets it. Vote Leave seem to be aiming for an effective strategy of aiming for voters with a plethora of concerns, Leave.EU/GO seem to be aiming more at the "immigrants have stolen your job" vote which appeals to people who don't vote in low turnout elections. Low turnout then could be good for Vote Leave but bad for Leave.EU/GO
Like I say (and I'm not exaggerating) a lot of lifelong eurosceptic friends of mine who have detested Brussels and the EU for years are going very wobby over the EU ref.
Take a look at the posts of Bob Sykes, AndyJS and even straight down-the-line Brexiters like Peter from Putney - nervous as hell.
All my instincts of my (many) years of experience in political canvassing tell me exactly what that means.
Personally, I wish all of us natural eurosceptics would just straighten up, and face up.
What we've experienced so far from Project Fear is only the hors d'oeuvres
I liked Boris Johnson's line a week or two ago about Project Hope, but its not been expounded upon which is a shame. A total missed opportunity.
"Remain" will win.
Simples.
I think Remain will get a very good turnout for them in London and the South-East, but I'm not sure elsewhere.
I still think that (together with the other English metropolitan areas and Scotland/NI) should be enough to tip it.
you just accept you did the right thing but you lost
Multiculturism works fine for Chinese, Korean, Hindu, Sikh and Bhuddists. It works fine for Cypriot and Greek Orthodox as well as African Pentocostals and Philipino Catholics. The problem is Islam. Multiculturism requires mutual respect between cultures and that is simply not the case for a substantial percentage of Muslims, whether Bosniaks or Hausa or Arab.
Can you give the contact details of your oestopath to a few of other fellow Leavers please?!
I live in the North West and am sure that people I know who are engaged in politics and vote as a matter of course will vote in this referendum too, I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise. People who only vote in General Elections on the other hand, I can't be certain either way.
Replay?
Multiculturalism has to go, and assimilation is the future. Inside your home you can speak whatever language you want, worship however you want etc, but in society you have to blend into the national cultural norm. All cultures are not equal.
Is like a tie in the House of Commons, The Queen has a casting vote, and votes with the Government, as not to create a majority where non exists, as we've already voted in the past to remain a member of the EC/EU, back in 1975
I do spend 95% of my time in London and the South-East, which is all mainly girly-men who do tend to go all Gaylord Ponceyboots for fear of losing a fiver.
Vote for what you believe in and have a clear conscience.
Stuff the fear.
I have a horrible feeling that all natural eurosceptics who bottle it will regret it for a very long time, possibly for the rest of their lives.
London quite possibly has a higher share of its population as ABC1s in the first place, which if it does would mean higher turnout anyway even if turnout by social grouping is consistent, but why would ABC1s in the rest of the country be less likely to vote?
EDIT TO ADD: DAMN IT, I'M NOT ON THE SITE, YOU DIDN'T SEE ME HERE. I'M OFF NOW. NOT THAT I WAS EVER HERE.
It's too late for that. It might have been possible 40-50 years ago when the numbers were much smaller and the parallel societies hadn't been set up. But they have now, and short of Ferdinand and Isabella style policies there is nothing we can do about it.
It's the salience of the fear factor.
I think the political worries of London permeate out through those who work and socialise there, to those who live in the home counties, because that's where most of the big banks and big businesses are based, who will be the most sceptical about Brexit, losing access to the single market and in fear for their jobs and net wealth (incorrectly, of course).
Pavel from St Petersburg might suit.
1) As it is Easter Sunday, The EURef will seee George Osborne rise from the dead, and we will worship him again
2) What does the EURef mean for Scottish Independence
Let me be clear: plenty of Pakistani girls are gorgeous.
Why should they be off limits to the rest of us?
(can't believe I just said that.. I'm doing a robert and running away.. before I get in trouble, both from pb and my wife)
I've been pondering the matter a lot during my time away from PB.
So I'll not be voting in the referendum. I want no further part in this matter. Wild horses won't drag me into the polling station.
Sorry if that all sounds over dramatic but it's how I'm honestly feeling. I can't guess if it's just me or if many/any other people are starting to feel this way though.
I said they seemed somewhat.. ineffective. You said that was *entirely* incorrect, which isn't true, is it?
If they were fully effective, there wouldn't have been any terrorist attacks.
FWIW, I haven't been impressed with what I've read of their reactions today, or how and where they got their intelligence. Sluggish and undynamic.
If you know differently, it's for you to convince me.
Here's a hint: rather pompously dismissing any opinion you don't agree with doesn't quite cut it.
Revisit your style.
That is why Leave need to target and not write off the ABC1 vote. Its not a nationally homogenous group but it is a group that will turn out and vote and certainly could vote Leave.
The terrorists might well have an affinity with ISIS in some godforsaken, bombed out hell hole in Syria, but they're already here, in Europe, killing innocent people going about their daily business, and the cold hard facts are that they are organised enough to carry out an attack in Brussels, at a time when Belgium is in the grip of man hunts and police raids.
The governments of Europe have got to understand that radical Islam is the key problem. It's not young Hindus blowing up trains, it's not disaffected Quakers strolling around shooting passers by. It's young Muslim men.
Governments need to take hard, difficult decisions to combat the threat that a particular strain of Islam is to us. It will not be pleasant. It will cause trouble and hardship for the vast majority of law abiding, peaceful Muslims in Europe, but still, it needs to be done-here, now, in this country and others.
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
A good summation of how the left reacts to terrorist attacks, by a Muslim, no less.
Osborne has simply maintained Browns policies.
The Conservative Party on the other hand ...
The complete reversal from Labour's legacy of time and again increasing the jobs tax and not caring about business, to one of the most pro-business (And thus pro-investment and pro-growth) Chancellors in a long time will be felt for a long time further to come.
No wonder private sector employment is at its highest ever level. Now we need to see a Chancellor whether it be Osborne or someone else finish the job, post a surplus and then I'd love to see the jobs tax completely eliminated.
Usually they employ the term without the definite article to make it sound unsettling. Compare, say, Pakistan or Afghanistan, which they never refer to as "Islamic Republic". Interesting twist, that. Not sure there are any precedents.
The state calls itself the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham. Translating "Sham" as "Syria", but then only using its initial letter, Western propagandists used to say "ISIS". The connotations were of a foreign scary deity from long ago that some nutcases still worship. When the order came down, they changed "ISIS" to "ISIL". That's still an acronym, of course, and for the extremely few people who wondered what the "L" stood for, the idea was that by claiming the Levant (a term known to British people in the context of the distant past, including the time of the crusades), the said state wants to extend its territory to areas currently administered by Lebanon and Israel.
Here's what I want to stress.
The state's official name starts with "The Islamic State". That's basically the same as what the names of many other states start with, including some that are very friendly with the US (the Afghan one is even a puppet of the US), although in their cases they say "Republic" rather than "State".
That's wrapping. It's like "United Kingdom".
The referent of the main part of the name of the state is geographical: Iraq and Sham.
They're not serious about world domination. That must be someone else that people are mixing them up with.
Sure, yes, the khilafa... But...the Ottomans, okay?
Actually there is a lot of apocalypticism in this particular group's presentation to its own market. It wouldn't surprise me if within 10 years they announce the coming of the Mahdi. They already call one of their publications "Dabiq", which is similar to Christians putting put a publication called "Armageddon".
Did I mention that Muslims believe that at the End of Times, Jesus will come again? Maybe in another post I'll cover that
As for maintaining Brown's policies that is just plain ignorant. Brown increased real spending every single year and real terms spending more than doubled under Brown.
Osborne has actually reduced real terms spending not just once but time and again.
It is not possible for him to be any more different than Brown.
We protect their rights, language, religion, difference and culture. We go out of our way not to upset them, we accept them under all circumstances.
We have lost permission to treat them with humour - that may insult, we can not insult, that is discrimination. If we can not show our ridicule of a lifestyle revolving around the practices of 800 years ago without inviting a visit from police, then we have lost our most potent social tool to keep society cohesive. Ridicule, humour and non PC comments are significant tools in directing behaviour towards societal norms. The young in particular move to conformity to the norm rather than becoming a beacon of oddity with peers.
We have lost the use of those controls.
The Queen has no vote in the House.
The Speaker does, and in the event of a tie votes for the status quo.
I would get out more, but posting on PB is much more fun.
Here are my assumptions on voting
Leave Remain
Con voters 55% 45%
Lab voters 35% 65%
UKIP voters 95% 5%
SNP voters 10% 90%
LD voters 30% 70%
NI voters 36% 64%
Others 40% 60%
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
That might have worked 40-50 years ago, not now.
I'm interested in the mood music on here, Remain are tetchy and defensive, Leave are cautiously optimistic. The anoraks talk of "direction of travel", for those of us that campaigned to leave the EU long before the side issues of Calais, Brussels, immigration and straight bananas, we're feeling very comfortable.
Its why Leave will win on a low turnout.
Best wishes btw, you speak for millions, good for you.