politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three CON defences and a LAB one in tonight’s local by-elec
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three CON defences and a LAB one in tonight’s local by-elections
Walsall MBC, Aldridge Central and South: CON defence (death)
Last fought 2012
CON 1602: LAB 735: UKIP 517: LD 358
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Are they going to arrest Olympians? If not, are they going to tolerate their laws being ignored?
They're setting themselves up to look very silly.
Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.
That will really wind them up.
From experience they don't like being compared to Germany or Hitler
Jeremy Warner, Osborne and I are pragmatists, You take growth wherever you can, while rebalancing and structuring the economy.
Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties. There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far.
Trade figures are improving. Manufacturing figures are improving, Production figures are improving. Construction figures are improving. Some at record levels but mostly recovering lost ground.
Business investment and supporting credit supply is yet to turn up but this is anticipated to begin in the second half of this year.
I am uncertain what you mean by "wealth creation". I note that the ONS published its "National Balance Sheet, 2013 Estimates" this morning but have only read the key findings so far.
• Without removing the effects of inflation, estimates of UK total net worth more than trebled in the 25 years from 1987 to 2012.
• UK total net worth at the end of 2012 was estimated at £7.3 trillion; this was equivalent to approximately £114,000 per head of population or £275,000 per household.
These are nominal figures and show an upward 25 year trend with a small tick down in 2007-9. Would be interesting to see the real terms figures and I will dig deeper into the bulletin to look for them over the next few days.
I told them, I'd sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq, and we didn't get cheaper oil.
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mGBaXPlri8
http://www.targetmap.com/viewer.aspx?reportId=3073
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/council-by-election-results.html
The government really should collate all election results on a flashy looking website. It would be easy to do if each of the councils supplied the results back to the relevant department in a standardised manner. My inner nerd wants to set something like this up, I even got as far as looking up how easily accessible ward maps are on the Ordinance Survey.
The mentality which got us into our problems to begin with.
"Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties."
Hardly an achievement.
"There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far."
And a sprint of the shoppers.
As today seems full of metaphors about the economy here's another one - we have a russian roulette economy.
The first bullet was added in 2001, the second bullet was added in 2005, the third bullet was added in 2010, the fourth bullet will be added in 2015.
Which political party gets to destroy itself and when?
On other issues I wonder if GloucesterOldSpot could be sent to Egypt to save SeanT's pig people while you and SamCam are busy liberating Syria? I'm sure Cousin Seth could take care of things at home.
http://www.votetalk.co.uk
I sat down to dinner with Caesar, Caligula and my wife, she rolled her eyes and said "No, I said I wanted more ROMANCE in our relationship"
Not that it won't be a view held by the vast majority of the Russian public, My guess is that if her views were put to a polling test more than 80% of Russian respondents would agree with them. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if she herself she herself agreed with them too.
The problem with social attitudes in Russia is that they are struck without any reference to a history of public debate and cultural development. They therefore seem to us to be like the social attitudes of, say, the 1950s. They also seem "unthinking" as they are rarely justified to outsiders in any terms other than being "specifically Russian".
As Grandiose pointed out wisely the other night, Russia will not develop saner and more liberal social attitudes as a result of external threat. They will just close ranks and substitute national defence for proper consideration of the underlying issues.
But the reality is that Russians are quite happy to subscribe to an official view in public but have entirely different attitudes in private when amongst friends and family. The idea that the vast majority of Russians are homophobic in their own interpersonal relations is absurd. They just have licence to appear so in public.
So the challenge over the Olympics is simple. How to get encourage Russian attitudes to change from within. Commuism was destroyed more by internal combustion and loss of faith than external pressure.
My advice for campaigners is not to travel to Russia to demonstrate aggressively against the government. Much better to align the campaign with internal Russian icons. Adopt a Tchaikovsky tune as your anthem; use 'Russian' humour to pierce defences. In this respect the rainbow painted fingernails are just the right start.
"....there goes another smug Rightwing twat, not heard that one before, ToryBoy!"
Rod's model states that there is zero - yep, zero probability of a Labour majority in 2015.
It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.
Hopefully HurstLlama will return soon.
Welcome back, ar.
Jeremy Warner, Osborne and I are pragmatists, You take growth wherever you can, while rebalancing and structuring the economy.
Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties. There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far.
Trade figures are improving. Manufacturing figures are improving, Production figures are improving. Construction figures are improving. Some at record levels but mostly recovering lost ground.
Business investment and supporting credit supply is yet to turn up but this is anticipated to begin in the second half of this year.
.....
Doesn't it all look magnificent hey Avery! All the dumb retail money is bullish, but the smart money has just turned bearish. And a few (fools) are taking advantage of the 'Help to Buy' shceme, which when the dust settles over the next 3 years......I'll christen it first as the 'Hell to Buyers' scheme. I'm sure all the current HTB beneficiaries will be thanking Mr Osborne in droves a year or two up the line!
Look at Mr Buffett - he is in a record amount of cash, as just one example. In the real world, the markets broke crucial support today. $TNX (10 year US Treasury) broke the 2.75% barrier - it doesn't sound a lot, but has already nearly doubled off it's 1.4% low last year. And this is the key rate on which long term mortgages and credit are priced off. And ffor the first time today, the market has started to get spooked by rising rates - this really is a huge game changer. And in the face of all the heroine crack cocaine of central bank permanent open market operations (POMO), the market isn't making any progress higher, like it has over the past 4 years. Market internals are incredibly weak, we have bearish divergences all over the place, Hindenburg Omens ( 6 in the last 8 days). Finally, finally the plates are moving - fasten yourselves for the (financial) ride of a lifetime.
Avery - I suggest this might be required reading for you:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-08-15/housing-bubble-bungle
Miliband has many flaws, but he's never actually killed and eaten other people.
http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/Torridge-council-investigates-inappropriate/story-19606195-detail/story.html
Not surprising, most people don't remember the son of Barca, as he's non-descript inept General who's only achievement was to have his bottom spanked at Zama.
"I was talking Hannibal, son of Barca."
this is going to get Messi soon.
It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.
I've already said, and said when I first published the figure.
"after 10000 Monte Carlo simulations"
I dare say a million sims might have one or two putting Eggman in Downing Street without a yellow yoke (yolk?)...
Party, which has always opposed regulation of non-tobacco nicotine products as medicine, took Pillbox38 funds in May
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/15/ukip-25000-donation-e-cigarette-firm
In 1997 the Labour vote in Wales rose by just 20,272 votes from 865,663 to 885,935.
http://youtu.be/cknGCCG-XKU
"after 10000 Monte Carlo simulations"
I dare say a million sims might have one or two putting Eggman in Downing Street without a yellow yoke (yolk?)...
Therefore, your model is producing garbage.
Interesting aside, about predictive models being based on their output, is the fascinating "wisdom index". If this proves more accurate over time than tradtional polling, do we trust it more? I think the answer has to be yes.
http://www.espn.co.uk/blogs/motorsport/story/120141.html
Apparently more US TV coverage than F1, but none in Europe, even though the EU's greenery (apparently) triggered the Formula being developed.
read. Not what I am expecting or hoping for...
Interesting aside, about predictive models being based on their output, is the fascinating "wisdom index". If this proves more accurate over time than tradtional polling, do we trust it more? I think the answer has to be yes.
Heresy Carl !!!
You prefer anecdotes to data, lucky tim's not about.
There is, clearly, an infinitely greater than 0% chance of a Labour majority in 2015.
At GE2015, will be fascinating to see what happens to Labour's vote in its heartland. It received no coverage at the time (no impact on the overall result), but the decline in the Labour vote in places like Merthyr was staggering last time out.
You prefer anecdotes to data, lucky tim's not about.
Christ no! The "wisdom index" isn't based on anecdote though, it's based on public opinion. Somewhat like traditional polls are. I just think it's a great and fascinating innovation.
.....
...
Avery - I suggest this might be required reading for you:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-08-15/housing-bubble-bungle
hunchman
You have to do better than that zerohedge article
Both the International Monetary Fund and the previous Bank of England Governor Mervyn King have both stated that the two schemes that have been set up decidedly smack of memories of the US mortgage guarantee programs that were one of the major causes of the world financial crisis in 2008. Subprimes disguised?
Neither Mervyn King nor the IMF have said what the author claims. Find me evidence if you disagree,
King warned against a temportary stimulus becoming a permanent and irremovable prop.
The IMF cautioned that the schemes should have clear exit plans.
Both the BoE (under King and Carney) and the IMF are supportive of the stimulus schemes as announced.
Average housing prices in the UK are now at an all-time high not seen since June 2008, when prices stood at £172, 415 across the country. Today they are at £170, 825
So the average price of a property in the UK has not increased in nominal terms, let alone real terms, in five years?.
That was an increase of 0.8% from June to July 2013 and a 3.9%-increase since July 2012.
Meaningless unless placed in context of the trend over the period between at least 2007 and 2013. Also regional variance needs to be taken into account.
But housing prices are still 10% below the pre-financial crisis levels that were seen in 2007.
Not quite, at least in nominal terms. In real terms, house prices are over 20% down in value. But the absurdity of this line is that it conflicts with the author's arguments stated above.
Interesting aside, about predictive models being based on their output, is the fascinating "wisdom index". If this proves more accurate over time than tradtional polling, do we trust it more? I think the answer has to be yes.
All I will say is that based on 2010, I now treat any prediction made by Rod Crosby with a great deal of respect. Rod was like a sole flautist playing in the wind and he was correct and most of us were wrong. We can ignore Tim who did lots of huffing and puffing but wouldn't actually commit himself to a comprehensive prediction for individual seats. As usual he just trashed what everyone else said.
And started basting her.
(After nine years, Mrs J is now officially fed up with all of my turkey jokes).
No carl it's a summary of what people think other people might do - anecdotes squared !
Another one who can't see past the last opinion poll.
What does 'infinitely greater' than 0% mean, btw....?
:roll:
The Broxtowe result in 1997 came through at 2:27 am:
http://www.election.demon.co.uk/declar.html
Also, see 8:20 mins on this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODCCS1fn2Kg&
Sir Roderick would only be flattered..
I may not agree with a lot of his positions on social and other matters but that should in no way influence my consideration of election analysis which has proved itself far more robust than I originally gave it credit for.
The fact that you're applauding high house prices based on debt based property speculation, like the coalition government in general, tells me you don't have a clue about sustainable long term economic growth and prosperity.
BNP standing ?
....see the fatal flaw in your "0% probability" model yet?
Amazing the number of German and Dutch vehicles in that area, particularly campervans. Also some Italian motorcyclists.
http://news.stv.tv/tayside/236035-tourist-threw-pizza-and-noodles-at-partner-during-disappointing-break/
"A German tourist injured his partner by hurling a pizza and a pot of noodles at her during a "disappointing" holiday in Scotland.
Banker Wolfgang Gruelich, 57, lashed out after finding his excursion to Scotland had not lived up to his expectations."
Yes, well, that turned out to be all too true.
'Britain deserves better. It deserves better than this(!)'
Con 240
UKIP 217
Green 41
No Description (he's a LD. Possibly cocked up nomination papers) 10
Con hold
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/2ndqtr13.pdf
Cash + fixed-interest securities as at June 30th were down by some $11bn since the start of the year. Presumably this reflects the acquisition of Heinz - equity investments are up by some $15bn over the same period.
Happy to observe the ban as I agree that it doesn't need discussing or questioning.
The fact Cameron has lost over 160,000 members and no one seems to care in the press is incredible in my opinion. Can you imagine what would happen if Ed Miliband reduced it by anything like that.
Lab 639
UKIP 226
PHF 194
Con 74
Lab hold
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/07/21/investors-struggle-with-cash-conundrum/