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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three CON defences and a LAB one in tonight’s local by-elections

Walsall MBC, Aldridge Central and South: CON defence (death)
Last fought 2012
CON 1602: LAB 735: UKIP 517: LD 358

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TheScreamingEagles

Oooh a couple of resignations, decent scandals I hope?

AlastairMeeks

FPT Russia don't seem to have woken up to the complete nightmare that they're going to have in the Winter Olympics if a succession of athletes will either come out or will make strongly pro-gay equality statements. The track and field athletes at the World Athletics have already shown that some of them are potentially up for making a statement.

Are they going to arrest Olympians? If not, are they going to tolerate their laws being ignored?

They're setting themselves up to look very silly.

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

FPT Russia don't seem to have woken up to the complete nightmare that they're going to have in the Winter Olympics if a succession of athletes will either come out or will make strongly pro-gay equality statements. The track and field athletes at the World Athletics have already shown that some of them are potentially up for making a statement.

Are they going to arrest Olympians? If not, are they going to tolerate their laws being ignored?

They're setting themselves up to look very silly.

I'm tempted to go to the Olympics in Russia next year to wind up the locals.

Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.

That will really wind them up.

From experience they don't like being compared to Germany or Hitler

AveryLP

FPT

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

TGOHF said:

Warner puts a boot into those worrying about a few extra BBQs being bought..

"One of the reasons – in fact the main reason – Britain has thus far trailed other major economies in economic recovery is that consumption has failed to come back after the shock of the banking crisis in the same way as it has elsewhere. Well now it appears to be, and the UK is therefore seeing relatively strong growth compared to others."

Good and sensible article.

Can I point out that retail sales are at a record high.

Its not wealth consumption which fell in the UK - the government has been subsidising it by over £100bn per year during the past five years.

The part of the economy which declined and has failed to come back is wealth creation.

The UK economy's recent stronger growth is merely Mr Creosote starting on the next course.

Welcome back, ar.

Jeremy Warner, Osborne and I are pragmatists, You take growth wherever you can, while rebalancing and structuring the economy.

Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties. There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far.

Trade figures are improving. Manufacturing figures are improving, Production figures are improving. Construction figures are improving. Some at record levels but mostly recovering lost ground.

Business investment and supporting credit supply is yet to turn up but this is anticipated to begin in the second half of this year.

I am uncertain what you mean by "wealth creation". I note that the ONS published its "National Balance Sheet, 2013 Estimates" this morning but have only read the key findings so far.

• Without removing the effects of inflation, estimates of UK total net worth more than trebled in the 25 years from 1987 to 2012.

• UK total net worth at the end of 2012 was estimated at £7.3 trillion; this was equivalent to approximately £114,000 per head of population or £275,000 per household.

These are nominal figures and show an upward 25 year trend with a small tick down in 2007-9. Would be interesting to see the real terms figures and I will dig deeper into the bulletin to look for them over the next few days.

JonnyJimmy

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm tempted to go to the Olympics in Russia next year to wind up the locals.

Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.

That will really wind them up

You talk like you've got big balls. If you do that I'll be seriously impressed (and quite surprised if you make it out in one piece)

TheScreamingEagles

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm tempted to go to the Olympics in Russia next year to wind up the locals.

Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.

That will really wind them up

You talk like you've got big balls. If you do that I'll be seriously impressed (and quite surprised if you make it out in one piece)

I did once wind up the Stop the War coalition a few years ago, when they wanted me to sign a petition to see Tony Blair charged with war crimes/lying over Iraq.

I told them, I'd sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq, and we didn't get cheaper oil.

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece.

TheScreamingEagles

I guess homophobia is one of those issues that really does press my buttons

TheScreamingEagles

So would this music video be banned under the new Russian laws?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mGBaXPlri8

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

I guess homophobia is one of those issues that really does press my buttons

I'm conflicted on this subject. On the one hand, I strongly disapprove of homophobia. On the other hand, Russian men have fabulous cheekbones.

JonnyJimmy

TheScreamingEagles said:

I guess homophobia is one of those issues that really does press my buttons

Doesn't that put you off football?

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I guess homophobia is one of those issues that really does press my buttons

I'm conflicted on this subject. On the one hand, I strongly disapprove of homophobia. On the other hand, Russian men have fabulous cheekbones.

Well there is that, but one of my gay friends did point out, recent studies showed that Russian men have the smallest manhoods in Europe, which would explain a few things.

http://www.targetmap.com/viewer.aspx?reportId=3073

TheScreamingEagles

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I guess homophobia is one of those issues that really does press my buttons

Doesn't that put you off football?

Not really, being an England supporter generally has put me off football

saddened

Do the results of all these elections get consolidated a d published somewhere? Seems a waste of a great deal of effort if not.

saddened

Just noticed my post has a kindle induced error. Hope Surbiton doesn't notice, as apparently, it's the mark of a saddo.

anotherDave

saddened said:

Do the results of all these elections get consolidated a d published somewhere? Seems a waste of a great deal of effort if not.

The site linked to below seems to carry past results.

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/council-by-election-results.html

RobD

saddened said:

Do the results of all these elections get consolidated a d published somewhere? Seems a waste of a great deal of effort if not.

Here on PB of course

The government really should collate all election results on a flashy looking website. It would be easy to do if each of the councils supplied the results back to the relevant department in a standardised manner. My inner nerd wants to set something like this up, I even got as far as looking up how easily accessible ward maps are on the Ordinance Survey.

another_richard

"Jeremy Warner, Osborne and I are pragmatists, You take growth wherever you can"

The mentality which got us into our problems to begin with.

"Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties."

Hardly an achievement.

"There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far."

And a sprint of the shoppers.

As today seems full of metaphors about the economy here's another one - we have a russian roulette economy.

The first bullet was added in 2001, the second bullet was added in 2005, the third bullet was added in 2010, the fourth bullet will be added in 2015.

Which political party gets to destroy itself and when?

On other issues I wonder if GloucesterOldSpot could be sent to Egypt to save SeanT's pig people while you and SamCam are busy liberating Syria? I'm sure Cousin Seth could take care of things at home.

OblitusSumMe

FPT, tim:

Precisely.
Although anyone predicting from by election swings would look very silly in 2015 when their 20% UKiP share doesn't happen.
Which is why Rod has picked up a petrol engine, filled it with diesel and is attempting to drive it around with no one noticing his folly.

In my recollection Rod only used the by-election swings to look at the swing between Labour and the Conservatives - so it wouldn't say anything about the vote share for UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Andy_JS

saddened said:

Do the results of all these elections get consolidated a d published somewhere? Seems a waste of a great deal of effort if not.

You can also find past results on the VoteTalk discussion forum in the relevant section:

http://www.votetalk.co.uk

Alanbrooke

another_richard said:

"Jeremy Warner, Osborne and I are pragmatists, You take growth wherever you can"

The mentality which got us into our problems to begin with.

"Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties."

Hardly an achievement.

"There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far."

And a sprint of the shoppers.

As today seems full of metaphors about the economy here's another one - we have a russian roulette economy.

The first bullet was added in 2001, the second bullet was added in 2005, the third bullet was added in 2010, the fourth bullet will be added in 2015.

Which political party gets to destroy itself and when?

On other issues I wonder if GloucesterOldSpot could be sent to Egypt to save SeanT's pig people while you and SamCam are busy liberating Syria? I'm sure Cousin Seth could take care of things at home.

AR good to see you back posting.

TheScreamingEagles

O/T

I sat down to dinner with Caesar, Caligula and my wife, she rolled her eyes and said "No, I said I wanted more ROMANCE in our relationship"

saddened

anotherDave said:

saddened said:

Do the results of all these elections get consolidated a d published somewhere? Seems a waste of a great deal of effort if not.

The site linked to below seems to carry past results.

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/council-by-election-results.html

Thanks, looks like what I was after.

AveryLP

antifrank said:

FPT Russia don't seem to have woken up to the complete nightmare that they're going to have in the Winter Olympics if a succession of athletes will either come out or will make strongly pro-gay equality statements. The track and field athletes at the World Athletics have already shown that some of them are potentially up for making a statement.

Are they going to arrest Olympians? If not, are they going to tolerate their laws being ignored?

They're setting themselves up to look very silly.

Isinbayeva's statement at her press conference brought back so many memories of a plausible Russian figure making a statement of official policy dressed up as a personal view.

Not that it won't be a view held by the vast majority of the Russian public, My guess is that if her views were put to a polling test more than 80% of Russian respondents would agree with them. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if she herself she herself agreed with them too.

The problem with social attitudes in Russia is that they are struck without any reference to a history of public debate and cultural development. They therefore seem to us to be like the social attitudes of, say, the 1950s. They also seem "unthinking" as they are rarely justified to outsiders in any terms other than being "specifically Russian".

As Grandiose pointed out wisely the other night, Russia will not develop saner and more liberal social attitudes as a result of external threat. They will just close ranks and substitute national defence for proper consideration of the underlying issues.

But the reality is that Russians are quite happy to subscribe to an official view in public but have entirely different attitudes in private when amongst friends and family. The idea that the vast majority of Russians are homophobic in their own interpersonal relations is absurd. They just have licence to appear so in public.

So the challenge over the Olympics is simple. How to get encourage Russian attitudes to change from within. Commuism was destroyed more by internal combustion and loss of faith than external pressure.

My advice for campaigners is not to travel to Russia to demonstrate aggressively against the government. Much better to align the campaign with internal Russian icons. Adopt a Tchaikovsky tune as your anthem; use 'Russian' humour to pierce defences. In this respect the rainbow painted fingernails are just the right start.

AveryLP

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T

I sat down to dinner with Caesar, Caligula and my wife, she rolled her eyes and said "No, I said I wanted more ROMANCE in our relationship"

Why not hire Messalina?

carl

TheScreamingEagles said:

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm tempted to go to the Olympics in Russia next year to wind up the locals.

Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.

That will really wind them up

You talk like you've got big balls. If you do that I'll be seriously impressed (and quite surprised if you make it out in one piece)

I did once wind up the Stop the War coalition a few years ago, when they wanted me to sign a petition to see Tony Blair charged with war crimes/lying over Iraq.

I told them, I'd sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq, and we didn't get cheaper oil.

I doubt it wound them up, they probably get giggles from it.

"....there goes another smug Rightwing twat, not heard that one before, ToryBoy!"

TheScreamingEagles

AveryLP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T

I sat down to dinner with Caesar, Caligula and my wife, she rolled her eyes and said "No, I said I wanted more ROMANCE in our relationship"

Why not hire Messalina?

I'm not allowed to spend time with promiscuous women.

TheScreamingEagles

carl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm tempted to go to the Olympics in Russia next year to wind up the locals.

Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.

That will really wind them up

You talk like you've got big balls. If you do that I'll be seriously impressed (and quite surprised if you make it out in one piece)

I did once wind up the Stop the War coalition a few years ago, when they wanted me to sign a petition to see Tony Blair charged with war crimes/lying over Iraq.

I told them, I'd sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq, and we didn't get cheaper oil.

I doubt it wound them up, they probably get giggles from it.

"....there goes another smug Rightwing twat, not heard that one before, ToryBoy!"

No it definitely wound them, especially after I made a complaint to their indignation co-ordinator.

carl

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, tim:

Precisely.
Although anyone predicting from by election swings would look very silly in 2015 when their 20% UKiP share doesn't happen.
Which is why Rod has picked up a petrol engine, filled it with diesel and is attempting to drive it around with no one noticing his folly.

In my recollection Rod only used the by-election swings to look at the swing between Labour and the Conservatives - so it wouldn't say anything about the vote share for UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Rod's model states that there is zero - yep, zero probability of a Labour majority in 2015.

It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Carl, is that the effect of the Ed Is Crap Coefficient?

carl

TheScreamingEagles said:

carl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm tempted to go to the Olympics in Russia next year to wind up the locals.

Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.

That will really wind them up

You talk like you've got big balls. If you do that I'll be seriously impressed (and quite surprised if you make it out in one piece)

I did once wind up the Stop the War coalition a few years ago, when they wanted me to sign a petition to see Tony Blair charged with war crimes/lying over Iraq.

I told them, I'd sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq, and we didn't get cheaper oil.

I doubt it wound them up, they probably get giggles from it.

"....there goes another smug Rightwing twat, not heard that one before, ToryBoy!"

No it definitely wound them, especially after I made a complaint to their indignation co-ordinator.

You hope it wound them up, in your best accidental Partridge manner.

TheScreamingEagles

carl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

carl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm tempted to go to the Olympics in Russia next year to wind up the locals.

Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.

That will really wind them up

You talk like you've got big balls. If you do that I'll be seriously impressed (and quite surprised if you make it out in one piece)

I did once wind up the Stop the War coalition a few years ago, when they wanted me to sign a petition to see Tony Blair charged with war crimes/lying over Iraq.

I told them, I'd sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq, and we didn't get cheaper oil.

I doubt it wound them up, they probably get giggles from it.

"....there goes another smug Rightwing twat, not heard that one before, ToryBoy!"

No it definitely wound them, especially after I made a complaint to their indignation co-ordinator.

You hope it wound them up, in your best accidental Partridge manner.

Look Lapsis, I was there, you weren't, It wound them up

another_richard

Alanbrooke said:

another_richard said:

"Jeremy Warner, Osborne and I are pragmatists, You take growth wherever you can"

The mentality which got us into our problems to begin with.

"Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties."

Hardly an achievement.

"There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far."

And a sprint of the shoppers.

As today seems full of metaphors about the economy here's another one - we have a russian roulette economy.

The first bullet was added in 2001, the second bullet was added in 2005, the third bullet was added in 2010, the fourth bullet will be added in 2015.

Which political party gets to destroy itself and when?

On other issues I wonder if GloucesterOldSpot could be sent to Egypt to save SeanT's pig people while you and SamCam are busy liberating Syria? I'm sure Cousin Seth could take care of things at home.

AR good to see you back posting.

Thank you Alan, and also to Avery.

Hopefully HurstLlama will return soon.

carl

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Carl, is that the effect of the Ed Is Crap Coefficient?

Ed=Mass x Crap(squared) ?

Morris_Dancer

Indeed, Mr. Richard.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Carl, is that the effect of the Ed Is Crap Coefficient?

No it's the Ed is like Hannibal co-efficient

Alanbrooke

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

another_richard said:

"Jeremy Warner, Osborne and I are pragmatists, You take growth wherever you can"

The mentality which got us into our problems to begin with.

"Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties."

Hardly an achievement.

"There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far."

And a sprint of the shoppers.

As today seems full of metaphors about the economy here's another one - we have a russian roulette economy.

The first bullet was added in 2001, the second bullet was added in 2005, the third bullet was added in 2010, the fourth bullet will be added in 2015.

Which political party gets to destroy itself and when?

On other issues I wonder if GloucesterOldSpot could be sent to Egypt to save SeanT's pig people while you and SamCam are busy liberating Syria? I'm sure Cousin Seth could take care of things at home.

AR good to see you back posting.

Thank you Alan, and also to Avery.

Hopefully HurstLlama will return soon.

lol quite so, I haven't had anyone pick me up on my spelling for months now !

carl

TheScreamingEagles said:

carl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

carl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm tempted to go to the Olympics in Russia next year to wind up the locals.

Edit: and to really wind them up, compare them to Hitler and the gays to the Jesse Owens.

That will really wind them up

You talk like you've got big balls. If you do that I'll be seriously impressed (and quite surprised if you make it out in one piece)

I did once wind up the Stop the War coalition a few years ago, when they wanted me to sign a petition to see Tony Blair charged with war crimes/lying over Iraq.

I told them, I'd sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq, and we didn't get cheaper oil.

I doubt it wound them up, they probably get giggles from it.

"....there goes another smug Rightwing twat, not heard that one before, ToryBoy!"

No it definitely wound them, especially after I made a complaint to their indignation co-ordinator.

You hope it wound them up, in your best accidental Partridge manner.

Look Lapsis, I was there, you weren't, It wound them up

Next up on Good Morning Norwich...

hunchman

Welcome back, ar.

Jeremy Warner, Osborne and I are pragmatists, You take growth wherever you can, while rebalancing and structuring the economy.

Current growth is more broadly based than in the mid noughties. There is a march of the makers even if it hasn't yet marched very far.

Trade figures are improving. Manufacturing figures are improving, Production figures are improving. Construction figures are improving. Some at record levels but mostly recovering lost ground.

Business investment and supporting credit supply is yet to turn up but this is anticipated to begin in the second half of this year.

.....

Doesn't it all look magnificent hey Avery! All the dumb retail money is bullish, but the smart money has just turned bearish. And a few (fools) are taking advantage of the 'Help to Buy' shceme, which when the dust settles over the next 3 years......I'll christen it first as the 'Hell to Buyers' scheme. I'm sure all the current HTB beneficiaries will be thanking Mr Osborne in droves a year or two up the line!

Look at Mr Buffett - he is in a record amount of cash, as just one example. In the real world, the markets broke crucial support today. $TNX (10 year US Treasury) broke the 2.75% barrier - it doesn't sound a lot, but has already nearly doubled off it's 1.4% low last year. And this is the key rate on which long term mortgages and credit are priced off. And ffor the first time today, the market has started to get spooked by rising rates - this really is a huge game changer. And in the face of all the heroine crack cocaine of central bank permanent open market operations (POMO), the market isn't making any progress higher, like it has over the past 4 years. Market internals are incredibly weak, we have bearish divergences all over the place, Hindenburg Omens ( 6 in the last 8 days). Finally, finally the plates are moving - fasten yourselves for the (financial) ride of a lifetime.

Avery - I suggest this might be required reading for you:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-08-15/housing-bubble-bungle

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, I simply will not stand for that.

Miliband has many flaws, but he's never actually killed and eaten other people.

Garethofthevale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh a couple of resignations, decent scandals I hope?

http://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/local/under-fire-manor-house-councillor-angie-wilcox-resigns-from-hartlepool-council-1-5835600

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/Torridge-council-investigates-inappropriate/story-19606195-detail/story.html

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I simply will not stand for that.

Miliband has many flaws, but he's never actually killed and eaten other people.

I was talking Hannibal, son of Barca.

Not surprising, most people don't remember the son of Barca, as he's non-descript inept General who's only achievement was to have his bottom spanked at Zama.

TheScreamingEagles

Garethofthevale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh a couple of resignations, decent scandals I hope?

http://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/local/under-fire-manor-house-councillor-angie-wilcox-resigns-from-hartlepool-council-1-5835600

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/Torridge-council-investigates-inappropriate/story-19606195-detail/story.html

Thanks, the first one is a bit boring, second one is interesting

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I simply will not stand for that.

Miliband has many flaws, but he's never actually killed and eaten other people.

I was talking Hannibal, son of Barca.

Not surprising, most people don't remember the son of Barca, as he's non-descript inept General who's only achievement was to have his bottom spanked at Zama.

"I was talking Hannibal, son of Barca."

this is going to get Messi soon.

Andy_JS

Mishal Husain is 40 but looks about 15 years younger. She's reporting from Cairo on BBC1 news.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I simply will not stand for that.

Miliband has many flaws, but he's never actually killed and eaten other people.

I was talking Hannibal, son of Barca.

Not surprising, most people don't remember the son of Barca, as he's non-descript inept General who's only achievement was to have his bottom spanked at Zama.

"I was talking Hannibal, son of Barca."

this is going to get Messi soon.

Like

RodCrosby

carl said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, tim:

Precisely.
Although anyone predicting from by election swings would look very silly in 2015 when their 20% UKiP share doesn't happen.
Which is why Rod has picked up a petrol engine, filled it with diesel and is attempting to drive it around with no one noticing his folly.

In my recollection Rod only used the by-election swings to look at the swing between Labour and the Conservatives - so it wouldn't say anything about the vote share for UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Rod's model states that there is zero - yep, zero probability of a Labour majority in 2015.

It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.

I've already said, and said when I first published the figure.

"after 10000 Monte Carlo simulations"

I dare say a million sims might have one or two putting Eggman in Downing Street without a yellow yoke (yolk?)...

TheScreamingEagles

Ukip accepts £25,000 donation from e-cigarette firm

Party, which has always opposed regulation of non-tobacco nicotine products as medicine, took Pillbox38 funds in May

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/15/ukip-25000-donation-e-cigarette-firm

AveryLP

TheScreamingEagles said:

Garethofthevale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh a couple of resignations, decent scandals I hope?

http://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/local/under-fire-manor-house-councillor-angie-wilcox-resigns-from-hartlepool-council-1-5835600

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/Torridge-council-investigates-inappropriate/story-19606195-detail/story.html

Thanks, the first one is a bit boring, second one is interesting

The only thing interesting about the North Devon Journal article is the link to "The Secret of Pippa Middleton's Perfect Body". I resisted. Must be getting old.

Sunil_Prasannan

Andy_JS said:

Mishal Husain is 40 but looks about 15 years younger. She's reporting from Cairo on BBC1 news.

I like Susanna Reid on BBC Breakfast.

Andy_JS

Interesting electoral fact:

In 1997 the Labour vote in Wales rose by just 20,272 votes from 865,663 to 885,935.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, you silly sausage.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ukip accepts £25,000 donation from e-cigarette firm

Party, which has always opposed regulation of non-tobacco nicotine products as medicine, took Pillbox38 funds in May

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/15/ukip-25000-donation-e-cigarette-firm

I'm still waiting for Dockside Hookers for Nigel that'll really upset the Guardian.

anotherDave

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ukip accepts £25,000 donation from e-cigarette firm

Party, which has always opposed regulation of non-tobacco nicotine products as medicine, took Pillbox38 funds in May

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/15/ukip-25000-donation-e-cigarette-firm

The UK has just signed up to an EU directive that covers e-cigarettes.

http://youtu.be/cknGCCG-XKU

RodCrosby

Andy_JS said:

Interesting electoral fact:

In 1997 the Labour vote in Wales rose by just 20,272 votes from 865,663 to 885,935.

The windbag had already cleaned up the local sympathy vote in 1987 and 1992...

Alanbrooke

Andy_JS said:

Interesting electoral fact:

In 1997 the Labour vote in Wales rose by just 20,272 votes from 865,663 to 885,935.

The current HOC is bookended by BME politicians - alphabetically Diane Abbott is first and Nadim Zahawi is last.

carl

RodCrosby said:

carl said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, tim:

Precisely.
Although anyone predicting from by election swings would look very silly in 2015 when their 20% UKiP share doesn't happen.
Which is why Rod has picked up a petrol engine, filled it with diesel and is attempting to drive it around with no one noticing his folly.

In my recollection Rod only used the by-election swings to look at the swing between Labour and the Conservatives - so it wouldn't say anything about the vote share for UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Rod's model states that there is zero - yep, zero probability of a Labour majority in 2015.

It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.

I've already said, and said when I first published the figure.

"after 10000 Monte Carlo simulations"

I dare say a million sims might have one or two putting Eggman in Downing Street without a yellow yoke (yolk?)...

Therefore, your model is producing garbage.

Interesting aside, about predictive models being based on their output, is the fascinating "wisdom index". If this proves more accurate over time than tradtional polling, do we trust it more? I think the answer has to be yes.

Morris_Dancer

Formula E coverage news seems weird:
http://www.espn.co.uk/blogs/motorsport/story/120141.html

Apparently more US TV coverage than F1, but none in Europe, even though the EU's greenery (apparently) triggered the Formula being developed.

RodCrosby

'your model is producing garbage.'

read. Not what I am expecting or hoping for...

Alanbrooke

carl said:

RodCrosby said:

carl said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, tim:

Precisely.
Although anyone predicting from by election swings would look very silly in 2015 when their 20% UKiP share doesn't happen.
Which is why Rod has picked up a petrol engine, filled it with diesel and is attempting to drive it around with no one noticing his folly.

In my recollection Rod only used the by-election swings to look at the swing between Labour and the Conservatives - so it wouldn't say anything about the vote share for UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Rod's model states that there is zero - yep, zero probability of a Labour majority in 2015.

It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.

I've already said, and said when I first published the figure.

"after 10000 Monte Carlo simulations"

I dare say a million sims might have one or two putting Eggman in Downing Street without a yellow yoke (yolk?)...

Therefore, your model is producing garbage.

Interesting aside, about predictive models being based on their output, is the fascinating "wisdom index". If this proves more accurate over time than tradtional polling, do we trust it more? I think the answer has to be yes.

Heresy Carl !!!

You prefer anecdotes to data, lucky tim's not about.

carl

RodCrosby said:

'your model is producing garbage.'

read. Not what I am expecting or hoping for...

No. Garbage.

There is, clearly, an infinitely greater than 0% chance of a Labour majority in 2015.

hunchman

RodCrosby said:

Andy_JS said:

Interesting electoral fact:

In 1997 the Labour vote in Wales rose by just 20,272 votes from 865,663 to 885,935.

The windbag had already cleaned up the local sympathy vote in 1987 and 1992...

They still completed a Tory wipeout, winning in places like Clywd West and Monmouth in that year.

At GE2015, will be fascinating to see what happens to Labour's vote in its heartland. It received no coverage at the time (no impact on the overall result), but the decline in the Labour vote in places like Merthyr was staggering last time out.

carl

Alanbrooke said:

carl said:

RodCrosby said:

carl said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, tim:

Precisely.
Although anyone predicting from by election swings would look very silly in 2015 when their 20% UKiP share doesn't happen.
Which is why Rod has picked up a petrol engine, filled it with diesel and is attempting to drive it around with no one noticing his folly.

In my recollection Rod only used the by-election swings to look at the swing between Labour and the Conservatives - so it wouldn't say anything about the vote share for UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Rod's model states that there is zero - yep, zero probability of a Labour majority in 2015.

It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.

I've already said, and said when I first published the figure.

"after 10000 Monte Carlo simulations"

I dare say a million sims might have one or two putting Eggman in Downing Street without a yellow yoke (yolk?)...

Therefore, your model is producing garbage.

Interesting aside, about predictive models being based on their output, is the fascinating "wisdom index". If this proves more accurate over time than tradtional polling, do we trust it more? I think the answer has to be yes.

Heresy Carl !!!

You prefer anecdotes to data, lucky tim's not about.

Christ no! The "wisdom index" isn't based on anecdote though, it's based on public opinion. Somewhat like traditional polls are. I just think it's a great and fascinating innovation.

RobD

carl said:

RodCrosby said:

'your model is producing garbage.'

read. Not what I am expecting or hoping for...

No. Garbage.

There is, clearly, an infinitely greater than 0% chance of a Labour majority in 2015.

Maybe my stats has gone amiss, but given 10,000 simulations, surely it would be anywhere between 0 and 0.01%, given a poisson counting uncertainty. ;-)

AveryLP

hunchman said:

...

.....

...

Avery - I suggest this might be required reading for you:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-08-15/housing-bubble-bungle

hunchman

You have to do better than that zerohedge article

Both the International Monetary Fund and the previous Bank of England Governor Mervyn King have both stated that the two schemes that have been set up decidedly smack of memories of the US mortgage guarantee programs that were one of the major causes of the world financial crisis in 2008. Subprimes disguised?

Neither Mervyn King nor the IMF have said what the author claims. Find me evidence if you disagree,

King warned against a temportary stimulus becoming a permanent and irremovable prop.

The IMF cautioned that the schemes should have clear exit plans.

Both the BoE (under King and Carney) and the IMF are supportive of the stimulus schemes as announced.

Average housing prices in the UK are now at an all-time high not seen since June 2008, when prices stood at £172, 415 across the country. Today they are at £170, 825

So the average price of a property in the UK has not increased in nominal terms, let alone real terms, in five years?.

That was an increase of 0.8% from June to July 2013 and a 3.9%-increase since July 2012.

Meaningless unless placed in context of the trend over the period between at least 2007 and 2013. Also regional variance needs to be taken into account.

But housing prices are still 10% below the pre-financial crisis levels that were seen in 2007.


Not quite, at least in nominal terms. In real terms, house prices are over 20% down in value. But the absurdity of this line is that it conflicts with the author's arguments stated above.

Easterross

carl said:

RodCrosby said:

carl said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, tim:

Precisely.
Although anyone predicting from by election swings would look very silly in 2015 when their 20% UKiP share doesn't happen.
Which is why Rod has picked up a petrol engine, filled it with diesel and is attempting to drive it around with no one noticing his folly.

In my recollection Rod only used the by-election swings to look at the swing between Labour and the Conservatives - so it wouldn't say anything about the vote share for UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Rod's model states that there is zero - yep, zero probability of a Labour majority in 2015.

It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.

I've already said, and said when I first published the figure.

"after 10000 Monte Carlo simulations"

I dare say a million sims might have one or two putting Eggman in Downing Street without a yellow yoke (yolk?)...

Therefore, your model is producing garbage.

Interesting aside, about predictive models being based on their output, is the fascinating "wisdom index". If this proves more accurate over time than tradtional polling, do we trust it more? I think the answer has to be yes.

All I will say is that based on 2010, I now treat any prediction made by Rod Crosby with a great deal of respect. Rod was like a sole flautist playing in the wind and he was correct and most of us were wrong. We can ignore Tim who did lots of huffing and puffing but wouldn't actually commit himself to a comprehensive prediction for individual seats. As usual he just trashed what everyone else said.

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T

I sat down to dinner with Caesar, Caligula and my wife, she rolled her eyes and said "No, I said I wanted more ROMANCE in our relationship"

You should see what happened when my mother invited my wife for Christmas Dinner.
And started basting her.

(After nine years, Mrs J is now officially fed up with all of my turkey jokes).

IOS

Rod Crosby said that when Cameron passed gay marriage that society was "committing suicide" I would run anything he says through that spectrum.

Alanbrooke

carl said:

Alanbrooke said:

carl said:

RodCrosby said:

carl said:

OblitusSumMe said:

FPT, tim:

Precisely.
Although anyone predicting from by election swings would look very silly in 2015 when their 20% UKiP share doesn't happen.
Which is why Rod has picked up a petrol engine, filled it with diesel and is attempting to drive it around with no one noticing his folly.

In my recollection Rod only used the by-election swings to look at the swing between Labour and the Conservatives - so it wouldn't say anything about the vote share for UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Rod's model states that there is zero - yep, zero probability of a Labour majority in 2015.

It is therefore producing garbage. Simple as that.

I've already said, and said when I first published the figure.

"after 10000 Monte Carlo simulations"

I dare say a million sims might have one or two putting Eggman in Downing Street without a yellow yoke (yolk?)...

Therefore, your model is producing garbage.

Interesting aside, about predictive models being based on their output, is the fascinating "wisdom index". If this proves more accurate over time than tradtional polling, do we trust it more? I think the answer has to be yes.

Heresy Carl !!!

You prefer anecdotes to data, lucky tim's not about.

Christ no! The "wisdom index" isn't based on anecdote though, it's based on public opinion. Somewhat like traditional polls are. I just think it's a great and fascinating innovation.

No carl it's a summary of what people think other people might do - anecdotes squared !

RodCrosby

'There is, clearly, an infinitely greater than 0% chance of a Labour majority in 2015.'

Another one who can't see past the last opinion poll.

What does 'infinitely greater' than 0% mean, btw....?

:roll:

Morris_Dancer

Just so, Mr. Easterross. Mr. Crosby's swingback theory was something that many (including myself) did not find convincing but he was far closer to the actual result than most people.

RobD

IOS said:

Rod Crosby said that when Cameron passed gay marriage that society was "committing suicide" I would run anything he says through that spectrum.

So just because you don't agree with someone on some social policies means that you are entitled to discredit his mathematical analysis out of hand?

Andy_JS

Another electoral fact:

The Broxtowe result in 1997 came through at 2:27 am:

http://www.election.demon.co.uk/declar.html

Also, see 8:20 mins on this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODCCS1fn2Kg&amp

MikeK

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T

I sat down to dinner with Caesar, Caligula and my wife, she rolled her eyes and said "No, I said I wanted more ROMANCE in our relationship"

You should see what happened when my mother invited my wife for Christmas Dinner.
And started basting her.

(After nine years, Mrs J is now officially fed up with all of my turkey jokes).

9 years, blimey, it should have taken her 9 minutes with jokes like that. Don't keep them coming!

AveryLP

IOS said:

Rod Crosby said that when Cameron passed gay marriage that society was "committing suicide" I would run anything he says through that spectrum.

There is little to be gained by discrediting Sir Roderick's predictive modelling on the grounds that you consider him to be an homophobic, crypto-fascist.

Sir Roderick would only be flattered..

Richard_Tyndall

I am another one who has learnt to ignore Rod's analysis at my peril.

I may not agree with a lot of his positions on social and other matters but that should in no way influence my consideration of election analysis which has proved itself far more robust than I originally gave it credit for.

hunchman

AveryLP said:

hunchman said:

...

King warned against a temportary stimulus becoming a permanent and irremovable prop.

The IMF cautioned that the schemes should have clear exit plans.

Both the BoE (under King and Carney) and the IMF are supportive of the stimulus schemes as announced.

Average housing prices in the UK are now at an all-time high not seen since June 2008, when prices stood at £172, 415 across the country. Today they are at £170, 825

So the average price of a property in the UK has not increased in nominal terms, let alone real terms, in five years?.

That was an increase of 0.8% from June to July 2013 and a 3.9%-increase since July 2012.

Meaningless unless placed in context of the trend over the period between at least 2007 and 2013. Also regional variance needs to be taken into account.

But housing prices are still 10% below the pre-financial crisis levels that were seen in 2007.


Not quite, at least in nominal terms. In real terms, house prices are over 20% down in value. But the absurdity of this line is that it conflicts with the author's arguments stated above.

Avery, unlike you I don't celebrate bubble high house prices. They are not prima facie evidence of a strong economy. What they are is a symptom of the biggest credit bubble in recorded human history. And the capital misallocation into unproductive financial assets such as property has been simply staggering. As I've said before, there is a world of difference between investment in productive enterprises (producing more goods and services) which is sustainable as it provides a launchpad for growth to repay back debt over time. Debts tied to financial speculation, providing no future increase in the productive capacity of the economy do no such thing. Eventually, in an economy where debt expands quicker than real economic growth reaches the point where the debt is unable to be serviced, let alone paid back at rock bottom interest rates. That is the point we have reached today. And economic history is very very clear on what happens in such a situation.

The fact that you're applauding high house prices based on debt based property speculation, like the coalition government in general, tells me you don't have a clue about sustainable long term economic growth and prosperity.

TGOHF

Ukip have a sniff in Hartlepool ?

BNP standing ?

carl

RodCrosby said:

'There is, clearly, an infinitely greater than 0% chance of a Labour majority in 2015.'


What does 'infinitely greater' than 0% mean, btw....?

Quite so. Consider that and...

....see the fatal flaw in your "0% probability" model yet?

Andy_JS

I was in Easter Ross on Sunday. Had a drive to Wick and Thurso.

Amazing the number of German and Dutch vehicles in that area, particularly campervans. Also some Italian motorcyclists.

TGOHF

Andy_JS said:

I was in Easter Ross on Sunday. Had a drive to Wick and Thurso.

Amazing the number of German and Dutch vehicles in that area, particularly campervans. Also some Italian motorcyclists.

Watch out for flying pizza...

http://news.stv.tv/tayside/236035-tourist-threw-pizza-and-noodles-at-partner-during-disappointing-break/

"A German tourist injured his partner by hurling a pizza and a pot of noodles at her during a "disappointing" holiday in Scotland.

Banker Wolfgang Gruelich, 57, lashed out after finding his excursion to Scotland had not lived up to his expectations."

Mick_Pork

Great news for the PB Burleys!

John Amaechi OBE ‏@JohnAmaechi 7h

#EverydayRacism Godfrey Bloom on 'bongo bongo land' & UK foreign aid (Foreign aid is 0.56% of UK GNI, BTW!) http://buff.ly/174o2eL

natalieben ‏@natalieben 10h

Beyond parody: Godfrey Bloom: Employers are prejudiced against men - http://ow.ly/nX1tV

Comical incompetence never fails to be amusing.

RichardNabavi

@Andy_JS: Blair in front of a poster saying 'Britain deserves better'.

Yes, well, that turned out to be all too true.

Mick_Pork

RichardNabavi said:

@Andy_JS: Blair in front of a poster saying 'Britain deserves better'.

Yes, well, that turned out to be all too true.

That'll be why the halfwits supported his Iraq stupidity.

carl

AveryLP said:

IOS said:

Rod Crosby said that when Cameron passed gay marriage that society was "committing suicide" I would run anything he says through that spectrum.

There is little to be gained by discrediting Sir Roderick's predictive modelling on the grounds that you consider him to be an homophobic, crypto-fascist.

Sir Roderick would only be flattered..

Agreed. Better to point out the obvious fact that his model is producing utter garbage than try to discredit him.

hunchman

RichardNabavi said:

@Andy_JS: Blair in front of a poster saying 'Britain deserves better'.

Yes, well, that turned out to be all too true.

I remember the Daily Telegraph editorial the following day after the Labour 97 manifesto release:

'Britain deserves better. It deserves better than this(!)'

IOS

Moderated - No discussions about the Holocaust, you know the site rules.

IOS

I didn't know that but I will abide by that rule.

Mick_Pork

IOS said:

Rod Crosby said that when Cameron passed gay marriage that society was "committing suicide" I would run anything he says through that spectrum.

I guess homophobia and racism are issues that really do press your buttons. For real. Seems reasonable enough to highlight that kind of ignorant hysteria.

AndreaParma_82

Shebbear and Langtry - Torridge

Con 240
UKIP 217
Green 41
No Description (he's a LD. Possibly cocked up nomination papers) 10

Con hold

MikeSmithson

@IOS before this ban was introduced there were very long and sometimes tedious arguments on the assertion that the holacaust didn't happen.

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

very long and sometimes tedious arguments

Well, this is PB ;-)

RichardNabavi

hunchman said:

Look at Mr Buffett - he is in a record amount of cash, as just one example.

Not according to the most recent accounts:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/2ndqtr13.pdf

Cash + fixed-interest securities as at June 30th were down by some $11bn since the start of the year. Presumably this reflects the acquisition of Heinz - equity investments are up by some $15bn over the same period.

surbiton

Andy_JS said:

I was in Easter Ross on Sunday. Had a drive to Wick and Thurso.

Amazing the number of German and Dutch vehicles in that area, particularly campervans. Also some Italian motorcyclists.

What ? They didn't leave at the end of the war ?

IOS

Mike

Happy to observe the ban as I agree that it doesn't need discussing or questioning.

TGOHF

AndreaParma_82 said:

Shebbear and Langtry - Torridge

Con 240
UKIP 217
Green 41
No Description (he's a LD. Possibly cocked up nomination papers) 10

Con hold

Tactical voting fail ?

surbiton

MikeSmithson said:

@IOS before this ban was introduced there were very long and sometimes tedious arguments on the assertion that the holacaust didn't happen.

You are not serious !

IOS

By the way Mike where is our article on the Tories having less than 95,000 members.

The fact Cameron has lost over 160,000 members and no one seems to care in the press is incredible in my opinion. Can you imagine what would happen if Ed Miliband reduced it by anything like that.

AndreaParma_82

Hartlepool - Manor House

Lab 639
UKIP 226
PHF 194
Con 74

Lab hold

hunchman

RichardNabavi said:

hunchman said:

Look at Mr Buffett - he is in a record amount of cash, as just one example.

Not according to the most recent accounts:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/2ndqtr13.pdf

Cash + fixed-interest securities as at June 30th were down by some $11bn since the start of the year. Presumably this reflects the acquisition of Heinz - equity investments are up by some $15bn over the same period.

"Mr. Buffett is sitting on $49 billion, his biggest cash hoard ever, according to Berkshire’s latest quarterly report."

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/07/21/investors-struggle-with-cash-conundrum/