I suspect the aspiration for trains to run at 250 mph came about to help make the business case for the project. Personally I would pull the plug on it.
AIUI the line is being designed for 400 kph (something like 350kph) initially because other lines are planned to be at that speed by the time HS2 opens. Designing for lower speeds now will mean it is behind by the time it opens.
If, as you desire, you pull the plug on it, you need to say how you will deal with the capacity issues, given that passenger numbers have continued to increase (see my second link). When doing that, you need to consider that upgrading existing lines is phenomenally expensive - the WCML upgrade a decade ago did not meet specification or cost despite costing around £10 billion (ten times the planned cost), and the GWML electrification is, from memory, three times over the initial planned costs.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
The sun is shining and looks like another dry day. Hooray no rain! Spring is in the air and a rather doddery looking Frederick Forsyth is on Marr, supporting Brexit.
Miss Plato, discriminating on the basis of gender or sexual orientation is abhorrent.
Edited extra bit: or ethnicity, of course.
The LD fightback will be from areas with a strong presence in local government. I have no problem with selection panels having a diverse pool to choose from, if those diverse candidates have proven themselves in local government via the hard grind. I do not like parachuted candidates in any party.
Incidentally, I never thought there a shortage of diverse sexualities in LD (or indeed any party!) at Westminster. Indeed problems in keeping sexuality under control!
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
Funny old world where your preferences in bed in the privacy of your bedroom will now give you priority and a seat on the local council.
Mrs Moses grandad got his council seat because he was a highly respected civil engineer and an efficient and effective community organiser of council services.
The Lib Dems definitely have a problem with women and ethnic minority representation in parliament. Then again, they have so few MPs that they're pretty much at the noise floor for that.
Although I'd hazard a guess that it's more to do with the fact that people like Rennard were involved with recruitment. They should put a process in place designed to get the best people into parliament, regardless of gender, age or ethnicity, rather than one designed to get friends in, or yes-men, or people who will put up with sexual pests.
I don't care whether my MP is male, female, gay, straight, or all of those at different times. What I care about is whether they are competent. And that's the case regardless of party.
This is not just a Lib Dem thing: it's a problem all Westminster parties have (I cannot speak for Wales and Scotland as I have not looked into it).
The sun is shining and looks like another dry day. Hooray no rain! Spring is in the air and a rather doddery looking Frederick Forsyth is on Marr, supporting Brexit.
FF goes in my local pub, very nice man.
As somebody who knows a bit about intelligence, his thoughts on the EU are worth listening to.
Incidentally N4E, after City getting a draw yesterday how's the odds on away experiment going?
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
If you're right about those two factors, then we'll always be to the right and ergo it's no longer a curve!
This is bizarre, what possible reason is there for prior permission required for literally unmasking possible suspects?
Hunt saboteurs will have to remove their masks if police receive new powers demanded by MPs after a spate of countryside attacks.
Animal rights activists often disguise themselves with hoods, masks or balaclavas at hunts and pheasant shoots. There have been several incidents where people have been injured but no prosecutions as victims cannot identify assailants.
Currently, police must get advance permission to demand protesters remove facial coverings, set out in section 60AA of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994.
The sun is shining and looks like another dry day. Hooray no rain! Spring is in the air and a rather doddery looking Frederick Forsyth is on Marr, supporting Brexit.
FF goes in my local pub, very nice man.
As somebody who knows a bit about intelligence, his thoughts on the EU are worth listening to.
Incidentally N4E, after City getting a draw yesterday how's the odds on away experiment going?
To be honest I haven't been tracking it, but I suspect rather well this season. I have a resource I can go to and check, I'll do that in the next week or so.
TSE's article overlooks the reality at these local elections. Conservative activists are more focused on the referendum than the May elections. There are less resources going into may 2016 elections than were deployed in may 2012. This will help Labour and the LIB DEMs.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
"The best academic evidence" = that which conforms to your prejudices? I could find "the best academic evidence" shows we're to the right.
History and global evidence in practice shows we are to the right.
Brown raising taxes harmed tax receipts. Hollande raising tax rates has done tremendous damage to his economy. Osborne cutting tax rates has raised tax revenues = Laffer in action.
I suspect the aspiration for trains to run at 250 mph came about to help make the business case for the project. Personally I would pull the plug on it.
AIUI the line is being designed for 400 kph (something like 350kph) initially because other lines are planned to be at that speed by the time HS2 opens. Designing for lower speeds now will mean it is behind by the time it opens.
If, as you desire, you pull the plug on it, you need to say how you will deal with the capacity issues, given that passenger numbers have continued to increase (see my second link). When doing that, you need to consider that upgrading existing lines is phenomenally expensive - the WCML upgrade a decade ago did not meet specification or cost despite costing around £10 billion (ten times the planned cost), and the GWML electrification is, from memory, three times over the initial planned costs.
This isn't a particularly helpful point, but I think the mistake we made was not doing this in the 1980s/1990s. I'm sceptical about demand continuing to rise in the future. And more to the point, we stopped building roads in this country because we worked out that all that happens is that the capacity gets filled up. Why should we take a different view with railways?
The problem is that this railway will not be used by ordinary people. I don't see how the current government can tolerate what is happening on GTR at the moment, with workers paying a fortune for a truly terrible service. How can it be right that the government is proposing to spend a fortune on a new railway line when some of the current railways are being run so badly?
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
If you're right about those two factors, then we'll always be to the right and ergo it's no longer a curve!
It will always be a curve because at 0% (and in theory 100%) you will get zero. But yes I'd expect we'll be to the right most of the time. Plus lower tax rates don't just improve tax revenues but also improve growth which means lower government expenditure is necessary. Win, win.
Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.
Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.
It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.
Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
The sun is shining and looks like another dry day. Hooray no rain! Spring is in the air and a rather doddery looking Frederick Forsyth is on Marr, supporting Brexit.
FF goes in my local pub, very nice man.
As somebody who knows a bit about intelligence, his thoughts on the EU are worth listening to.
Incidentally N4E, after City getting a draw yesterday how's the odds on away experiment going?
To be honest I haven't been tracking it, but I suspect rather well this season. I have a resource I can go to and check, I'll do that in the next week or so.
Interesting development at Newcastle with Benitez going there, tomorrow was a penalty kick for Leicester but he might just make a difference.
Hate to say it but lay Spurs this afternoon, just the sort of game they mess up, on the back of 1 draw from the last 3. That said Dortmund would win the PL by a mile.
Just read an article in the Observer by Alastair Campbell accusing the press of being dishonest re the EU. I do hope he's wheeled out to bat for Remain, I'd love to see the Tory Remainers cheering for him.
Re the thread header, its a different slant on what I've been saying for ages, Labour simply aren't bothered about the EU, its that apathy that will win it for Leave. Over 500 street stalls yesterday, thousands of campaigners, Leave are indisputably more motivated.
I did think that Campbell's article was like receiving a lecture in ethics from the devil.
This is bizarre, what possible reason is there for prior permission required for literally unmasking possible suspects?
Hunt saboteurs will have to remove their masks if police receive new powers demanded by MPs after a spate of countryside attacks.
Animal rights activists often disguise themselves with hoods, masks or balaclavas at hunts and pheasant shoots. There have been several incidents where people have been injured but no prosecutions as victims cannot identify assailants.
Currently, police must get advance permission to demand protesters remove facial coverings, set out in section 60AA of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994.
WRT Lib Dem selections, surely the party would be grateful that anyone was prepared to contest elections for them, without having to worry about their characteristics.
Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.
Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.
It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.
Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
I believe the suggestion was that upto 20% could be LGBT if you include those "in the closet". However that's not comparing like for like, there could be and likely are closeted MPs too. That's why I compared open with open, I doubt that 5% of our general population are openly gay.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
If you're right about those two factors, then we'll always be to the right and ergo it's no longer a curve!
It will always be a curve because at 0% (and in theory 100%) you will get zero. But yes I'd expect we'll be to the right most of the time. Plus lower tax rates don't just improve tax revenues but also improve growth which means lower government expenditure is necessary. Win, win.
If you believe that growth reduces the need for welfare payments you'll believe anything. (Hint: it might - it depends how the benefits of growth are distributed, which brings us back to tax rates, among other things.)
I'm sure no one is in any doubt that Cameron would resign if 'Leave' won.
"A passionate Leaver" is an interesting description. Even solid Tories who support Cameron are prepared to sacrifice him and their party in order for 'Leave' to win
For the LEAVERS this is visceral and for the REMAINERS it's pragmatic.
Once the Remainers are able to tease out what's behind this crusade I think they'll be in a better position to counter it.
You know what's behind it, Roger, as well as I do. It's 6 letter word starting with "r".
That's why it needs to be brought out into the open and why when it is the campaign can start
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
I agree with the idea of scrapping all the exemptions from IHT, while sharply cutting the rate from 40%, to perhaps 10%.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
If you're right about those two factors, then we'll always be to the right and ergo it's no longer a curve!
It will always be a curve because at 0% (and in theory 100%) you will get zero. But yes I'd expect we'll be to the right most of the time. Plus lower tax rates don't just improve tax revenues but also improve growth which means lower government expenditure is necessary. Win, win.
If you believe that growth reduces the need for welfare payments you'll believe anything. (Hint: it might - it depends how the benefits of growth are distributed, which brings us back to tax rates, among other things.)
This is always where labour fall down, they talk of "the need for welfare payments".
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
Nicola is 1) complaining but 2) pointing out how mobile these tax payers are:
But Ms Sturgeon has played down Labour’s call to increase the rate for the highest earners – on more than £150,000 – from 45p to 50p.
The First Minister said fewer than 20,000 Scots earn this amount. She added: “These are some of the most mobile people in the country and it wouldn’t take very many of them to shift their outcome out of Scotland for us not to raise money through that but to lose revenue.”
Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.
Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.
It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.
Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
I believe the suggestion was that upto 20% could be LGBT if you include those "in the closet". However that's not comparing like for like, there could be and likely are closeted MPs too. That's why I compared open with open, I doubt that 5% of our general population are openly gay.
Sorry, I was unclear. He thought the true figure for Parliament was 20%.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
If you're right about those two factors, then we'll always be to the right and ergo it's no longer a curve!
It will always be a curve because at 0% (and in theory 100%) you will get zero. But yes I'd expect we'll be to the right most of the time. Plus lower tax rates don't just improve tax revenues but also improve growth which means lower government expenditure is necessary. Win, win.
If you believe that growth reduces the need for welfare payments you'll believe anything. (Hint: it might - it depends how the benefits of growth are distributed, which brings us back to tax rates, among other things.)
I believe that growth reduces the proportion of GDP that "needs" to be spent to achieve the same things we're currently spending on. The problem is that demands are infinite and so expectations rise. These are new desires not the same old needs.
Do you think when Beveridge was talking about the Giant Evils that he would imagine that someone on welfare could be watching Sky Sports on a giant flatscreen TV while browsing their iPhone? Not only because the technology didn't exist then but no.
Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.
Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.
It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.
Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
I believe the suggestion was that upto 20% could be LGBT if you include those "in the closet". However that's not comparing like for like, there could be and likely are closeted MPs too. That's why I compared open with open, I doubt that 5% of our general population are openly gay.
It's a real shame that ONS chickened out of asking the question in the 2011 Census. Tests showed response rates did fall when the question was included, but it would be worthwhile given the arguments about representation.
The sun is shining and looks like another dry day. Hooray no rain! Spring is in the air and a rather doddery looking Frederick Forsyth is on Marr, supporting Brexit.
FF goes in my local pub, very nice man.
As somebody who knows a bit about intelligence, his thoughts on the EU are worth listening to.
Incidentally N4E, after City getting a draw yesterday how's the odds on away experiment going?
To be honest I haven't been tracking it, but I suspect rather well this season. I have a resource I can go to and check, I'll do that in the next week or so.
Interesting development at Newcastle with Benitez going there, tomorrow was a penalty kick for Leicester but he might just make a difference.
Hate to say it but lay Spurs this afternoon, just the sort of game they mess up, on the back of 1 draw from the last 3. That said Dortmund would win the PL by a mile.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
Villa are very poor, and there may well be another home protest. Spurs should have 3 easy points. It is now a two horse race.
The sun is shining and looks like another dry day. Hooray no rain! Spring is in the air and a rather doddery looking Frederick Forsyth is on Marr, supporting Brexit.
FF goes in my local pub, very nice man.
As somebody who knows a bit about intelligence, his thoughts on the EU are worth listening to.
Incidentally N4E, after City getting a draw yesterday how's the odds on away experiment going?
To be honest I haven't been tracking it, but I suspect rather well this season. I have a resource I can go to and check, I'll do that in the next week or so.
Interesting development at Newcastle with Benitez going there, tomorrow was a penalty kick for Leicester but he might just make a difference.
Hate to say it but lay Spurs this afternoon, just the sort of game they mess up, on the back of 1 draw from the last 3. That said Dortmund would win the PL by a mile.
Done a very quick reccy and laying odds on away would have made a profit, but a very small one of a couple of points.
Spurs will win comfortably this afternoon, while as you say Rafa might boost things at Newcastle, not easy for a Chelsea fan to say but I have a horrible feeling Spurs will nick the PL. My bet on City has sunk without a fight.
Made a few quid buying bookings this week, concentrating on the games that really matter, both the Chelsea games in this instance.
Bookings are 39 to buy at Utd this afternoon, bought that as I thought it would be significantly higher.
Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.
Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.
It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.
Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
I believe the suggestion was that upto 20% could be LGBT if you include those "in the closet". However that's not comparing like for like, there could be and likely are closeted MPs too. That's why I compared open with open, I doubt that 5% of our general population are openly gay.
Sorry, I was unclear. He thought the true figure for Parliament was 20%.
It's about 1%, but like crowds protesting in Trafalgar Square it - multiplies in the hands of the faithful.
Almost three-quarters of a million UK adults say they are gay, lesbian or bisexual - equivalent to 1.5% of the population, a survey suggests. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says 480,000 (1%) consider themselves gay or lesbian, and 245,000 (0.5%) bisexual.23 Sep 2010
Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.
Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.
It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.
Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
"Yes. Whenever I've been to Westminster it has always struck me how sexualised it is, in both straight and gay ways. Just a lot of hormones all over the place."
Are you sure you aren't confusing it with Soho up the road?
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
I agree with the idea of scrapping all the exemptions from IHT, while sharply cutting the rate from 40%, to perhaps 10%.
Agreed 100%. A 10% rate with no exemptions would probably garner the same revenues, with massively less unfairness.
Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.
Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.
It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.
Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
Yes. Whenever I've been to Westminster it has always struck me how sexualised it is, in both straight and gay ways. Just a lot of hormones all over the place. I am sure the percentage of gay MPs as part of the total number of MPs, is higher than the gay percentage of the UK population. This makes total sense, as gay MPs do not generally have kids, so they can concentrate all their energies on their campaigns and careers. They do better.
The shortlist thing is surely unworkable, anyway. How do you prove you are gay? I once had a *gay moment* with a friend, while drunk, and I am 100% heterosexual. Perhaps I could apply for the bi-curious Lib Dem PPC shortlist, based on that one boozy night in late April 1998.
Women are only three drinks from a lesbian kiss at least, or so I've always been led to believe.
McDonnell almost called Osborne Gordon Brown on Marr.
Easy to confuse the two...
Did I hear right that McDonnell would consider higher wages for public sector workers to be 'investment'?
In the Alice In Wonderland world of Labour economics, investment will be whatever McDonnell says it is. And woe betide you if you disagree. He has these friends, see....
The sun is shining and looks like another dry day. Hooray no rain! Spring is in the air and a rather doddery looking Frederick Forsyth is on Marr, supporting Brexit.
FF goes in my local pub, very nice man.
As somebody who knows a bit about intelligence, his thoughts on the EU are worth listening to.
Incidentally N4E, after City getting a draw yesterday how's the odds on away experiment going?
To be honest I haven't been tracking it, but I suspect rather well this season. I have a resource I can go to and check, I'll do that in the next week or so.
Interesting development at Newcastle with Benitez going there, tomorrow was a penalty kick for Leicester but he might just make a difference.
Hate to say it but lay Spurs this afternoon, just the sort of game they mess up, on the back of 1 draw from the last 3. That said Dortmund would win the PL by a mile.
Done a very quick reccy and laying odds on away would have made a profit, but a very small one of a couple of points.
Spurs will win comfortably this afternoon, while as you say Rafa might boost things at Newcastle, not easy for a Chelsea fan to say but I have a horrible feeling Spurs will nick the PL. My bet on City has sunk without a fight.
Made a few quid buying bookings this week, concentrating on the games that really matter, both the Chelsea games in this instance.
Bookings are 39 to buy at Utd this afternoon, bought that as I thought it would be significantly higher.
Lay City in every league game between now and the end of the season is my plan, they seem to have given up. I'm no fan of Benitez but there's several on this site as capable of McLaren, how that man has been in football for so long is a mystery to me.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
I agree with the idea of scrapping all the exemptions from IHT, while sharply cutting the rate from 40%, to perhaps 10%.
Agreed 100%. A 10% rate with no exemptions would probably garner the same revenues, with massively less unfairness.
I suggested something similar yesterday, a 5% rate with no exceptions (except a threshold).
Given the real rate currently received is about 2% then that would still be a boost.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
It's early and a Sunday morning but I don't get the logic of this thread header. Is it really likely that Labour are going to find a leader less enthused about the EU than Corbyn? Is there a potential Labour leader who is likely to make traditional Labour voters less likely to vote?
At the moment Labour have opted out of serious politics for a bit of self indulgence. I don't think it gets better for Leave than that.
I'm sure no one is in any doubt that Cameron would resign if 'Leave' won.
"A passionate Leaver" is an interesting description. Even solid Tories who support Cameron are prepared to sacrifice him and their party in order for 'Leave' to win
For the LEAVERS this is visceral and for the REMAINERS it's pragmatic.
Once the Remainers are able to tease out what's behind this crusade I think they'll be in a better position to counter it.
You know what's behind it, Roger, as well as I do. It's 6 letter word starting with "r".
That's why it needs to be brought out into the open and why when it is the campaign can start
Please clarify.
My impression is that the key motivation for "leavers" is a passionate desire not to be ruled by continentals, particularly the nasty Germans, and therefore is particularly keenly felt by those of an older generation who remember WWII and to a lesser extent their children, but not by younger people. People like me who are old enough to have voted no in 1975 are likely to do so again, but we are a dwindling minority. BTW, I am not British by ethnicity.
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
Nicola is 1) complaining but 2) pointing out how mobile these tax payers are:
But Ms Sturgeon has played down Labour’s call to increase the rate for the highest earners – on more than £150,000 – from 45p to 50p.
The First Minister said fewer than 20,000 Scots earn this amount. She added: “These are some of the most mobile people in the country and it wouldn’t take very many of them to shift their outcome out of Scotland for us not to raise money through that but to lose revenue.”
It's this kind ofthing that, I reckon, could see a revival of Scots Lab. Now that the Nats are in charge of Scotland's finances, to a greater extent (even though the Tories gave them a ridiculously generous fiscal deal) they will reveal more of their true colours - and I suspect those colours will be Tartan Tory more than Clydeside Red.
This opens up a flank for the beleaguered Scottish Labourites to attack.
It also opens up a revival to the real Tories too. If the Tartan Tories can detoxify Tory principles then that will do more to detox the blues north of the border than Cameron ever could. When it becomes time for a change then the real Tories may seem a sensible alternative.
Or even totally sober if one believes their massive over representation on US TV.
All those male fantasies more like. Reminds me of LOL Kyle moment last week. Wife had lesbian affair and hubby wanted to know why he hadn't been invited.
Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.
Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.
It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.
Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
Yes. Whenever I've been to Westminster it has always struck me how sexualised it is, in both straight and gay ways. Just a lot of hormones all over the place. I am sure the percentage of gay MPs as part of the total number of MPs, is higher than the gay percentage of the UK population. This makes total sense, as gay MPs do not generally have kids, so they can concentrate all their energies on their campaigns and careers. They do better.
The shortlist thing is surely unworkable, anyway. How do you prove you are gay? I once had a *gay moment* with a friend, while drunk, and I am 100% heterosexual. Perhaps I could apply for the bi-curious Lib Dem PPC shortlist, based on that one boozy night in late April 1998.
Women are only three drinks from a lesbian kiss at least, or so I've always been led to believe.
Find this a pretty tenuous argument and seems like an excuse to urge people to vote against Labour to be honest.
Any move against Corbyn will only happen once there has been a real change of heart/ reality check amongst the membership. We are nowhere near there yet and the May elections won't change that however bad they are. I also don't think they will be as bad as they would have been if the Tories were the united force they were 3 months ago.
Alan Johnson has ruled out standing for the leadership on numerous occasions and is very unlikely to stand in the circumstances you describe Also given that all the big-hitters in Labour are for REMAIN there would be no shortage of speakers and campaigners in the unlikely event your scenario comes about. "Must try harder" i'm afraid for that one TSE
Hi Olly
Apologies if you see this as an excuse for people to vote against Labour, It's not meant to be. I'm PB's leading Cameroon toady, and if you notice I did say the consequence of this could be Dave's premiership ending, something I would find utterly devastating.
This thread was inspired by a Labour activist friend, who is an ardent Pro EU person, we had lunch the other day, and he mentioned a low Labour turnout in June coupled with a Labour leadership contest could ruin Remain's chances.
I thought his ideas would make for a good thread header.
@David Herdson South Africa's majority black electorate has a very different political history and culture; one formed from oppression and a need for unity sufficient to overlook abuses of power. Even so, the ANC will fall there too sooner or later.
Catch up. Much later if Mugabe of Zimbabwe is anything to go by, David.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
I think that you are forgetting how in form Leicester are now. Every key player fit and playing the best in their lives, no sign of nerves and a tactical genius as manager. We are where we are because we are a very good team.
We are 5 points clear with 9 games to go and a favourable run-in. Plenty of value on Leicester still at evens.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
You do realise taxes are a lot lower than they used to be, right? (Not to mention that the post war period of higher taxes showed a superior rate of sustained growth compared with the current period of lower taxes).
@David Herdson South Africa's majority black electorate has a very different political history and culture; one formed from oppression and a need for unity sufficient to overlook abuses of power. Even so, the ANC will fall there too sooner or later.
Catch up. Much later if Mugabe of Zimbabwe is anything to go by, David.
True. Although Mugabe has come close to falling more than once and the state apparatus in S Africa isn't as much in the ANC's hands as the equivalent over the border. Still, it's been on a worrying trend for a long time.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
Yep but they also weren't really trying for John Carver or the last year or so of Alan Pardew... No manager is going to fix this problem in a hurry without replacing half the team...
to be honest the only match for Newcastle that matters is next Sunday (Sunderland) and April 2nd (Norwich).... Win both and they stay up, lose either and chances are they are down...
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
I think that you are forgetting how in form Leicester are now. Every key player fit and playing the best in their lives, no sign of nerves and a tactical genius as manager. We are where we are because we are a very good team.
We are 5 points clear with 9 games to go and a favourable run-in. Plenty of value on Leicester still at evens.
You are missing the point. Ranieri would rather be opposing McLaren than Benitez is what I pointed out.
'Find this a pretty tenuous argument and seems like an excuse to urge people to vote against Labour to be honest.'
Yep, pretty shameless last paragraph. Surprised Mike has allowed space on his site for a Tory activist to say 'vote against Labour in the election'. It's supposed to be a political analysis site, not electoral propaganda. TSE could well do with some tutoring on the writing front, too. Is English his second language?
I'm guessing you've never read a Don Brind article here then?
We get header articles from activists and supporters of each of the three traditional main parties. Only SNP and UKIP of the major parties in the UK (if UKIP and Lib Dems can be classed as such) don't to my knowledge.
If you can't understand the difference between having a column written from a declared partisan position but focusing on analysis and a column containing outright calls to vote against their party's main opposition then I can kind of get why your other various misunderstandings have arisen.
I completely disagree with TSE's analysis. My reading of the situation inside the Labour Party at the moment is
1) It is as certain as these things can be that there will be a PLP-inspired coup against Corbyn at some point; 2) Most leading coup plotters are also very committed to a Remain vote - they see this as more important even than the LP leadership in the short term; 3) So there will not be a coup after May and before the EU ref, however bad Labour's results.
Labour is already doing quite a lot at ground level on the EU ref- canvassing for the local elections also includes a referendum question and leaflets are being distributed. It isn't getting much coverage because it is not very exciting - Tory cabinet splits are a much better media story.
The corollary of the closing argument is, I suppose, if you're an ardent REMAIN supporter, don't vote either Conservative or UKIP as it will weaken the LEAVE campaign.
Ho hum...
As far as May (the month, not the Home Secretary) is concerned, the key results will be London and Wales - nobody expects anything other than a convincing SNP win in the Scottish Parliament elections though it remains an interesting point how long the SNP coalition will hold together.
I'm no Conservative as you know but the view in London is Goldsmith has been slow out the traps and his support for LEAVE may not play too well. However, it's easy to assume Party members and voters are monolithic on this - apart from UKIP, for obvious reasons, there are LEAVE and REMAIN elements in all parties. The LDs have a LEAVE grouping which say surprise some or none.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
Yep but they also weren't really trying for John Carver or the last year or so of Alan Pardew... No manager is going to fix this problem in a hurry without replacing half the team...
to be honest the only match for Newcastle that matters is next Sunday (Sunderland) and April 2nd (Norwich).... Win both and they stay up, lose either and chances are they are down...
If they win both they'll have 30 points, they'll need more than that
I'm sure no one is in any doubt that Cameron would resign if 'Leave' won.
"A passionate Leaver" is an interesting description. Even solid Tories who support Cameron are prepared to sacrifice him and their party in order for 'Leave' to win
For the LEAVERS this is visceral and for the REMAINERS it's pragmatic.
Once the Remainers are able to tease out what's behind this crusade I think they'll be in a better position to counter it.
You know what's behind it, Roger, as well as I do. It's 6 letter word starting with "r".
That's why it needs to be brought out into the open and why when it is the campaign can start
Please clarify.
My impression is that the key motivation for "leavers" is a passionate desire not to be ruled by continentals, particularly the nasty Germans, and therefore is particularly keenly felt by those of an older generation who remember WWII and to a lesser extent their children, but not by younger people. People like me who are old enough to have voted no in 1975 are likely to do so again, but we are a dwindling minority. BTW, I am not British by ethnicity.
I agree that what you've just said would be my guess to. It needs to be distilled into a word or a simple sentence that's all. I'm not sure I'd define it as IA has but maybe the X word
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
I think that you are forgetting how in form Leicester are now. Every key player fit and playing the best in their lives, no sign of nerves and a tactical genius as manager. We are where we are because we are a very good team.
We are 5 points clear with 9 games to go and a favourable run-in. Plenty of value on Leicester still at evens.
You are missing the point. Ranieri would rather be opposing McLaren than Benitez is what I pointed out.
Perhaps, but so would Spurs and Man City.
We are also hoping that LVG lasts until we play them too!
daodao..I love loving in the centre of Europe..and I travel extensively to a great deal of it...but I cannot stand the EU..It would cause me some slight inconvenience if we vote out but I think in the long run the UK would be better off
Catch up. Much later if Mugabe of Zimbabwe is anything to go by, David.
South Africa has been democratic for almost 25 years now. It is not a perfect democracy; too much power is still in the hands of the ANC, and there is much corruption (especially around black economic empowerment). But the press is still largely free, and the Democratic Alliance has managed to consolidate power around the Cape, and there is real pluralism down there.
By this point in Zimbabwe's cycle, the economy had been destroyed, critical newspapers were closed, and electoral fraud was rampant. Hopefully, and it is only a hope, South Africa will avoid Zimbabwe's mistakes.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
Yep but they also weren't really trying for John Carver or the last year or so of Alan Pardew... No manager is going to fix this problem in a hurry without replacing half the team...
to be honest the only match for Newcastle that matters is next Sunday (Sunderland) and April 2nd (Norwich).... Win both and they stay up, lose either and chances are they are down...
If they win both they'll have 30 points, they'll need more than that
They just need more points than Norwich and Sunderland. Mid 30's should be plenty.
Boris Johnson, the unofficial leader of the "Leave" campaign, matches David Cameron on "trust", according to a ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday. Asked who they trust more to do what is best for Britain, 35 per cent say Mr Cameron and 34 per cent Mr Johnson.
The poll underlines the importance of the Mayor of London’s decision to put himself at the head if the “Leave” campaign. More voters also think Boris Johnson decided to campaign for Leave “because he believes it is best for Britain” than “because he thinks it is best for his career”.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
I agree with the idea of scrapping all the exemptions from IHT, while sharply cutting the rate from 40%, to perhaps 10%.
Agreed 100%. A 10% rate with no exemptions would probably garner the same revenues, with massively less unfairness.
I suggested something similar yesterday, a 5% rate with no exceptions (except a threshold).
Given the real rate currently received is about 2% then that would still be a boost.
Personally, I've never understood why it is the estate that gets taxed rather than the beneficiary. Surely an inheritance is just income.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
Yep but they also weren't really trying for John Carver or the last year or so of Alan Pardew... No manager is going to fix this problem in a hurry without replacing half the team...
to be honest the only match for Newcastle that matters is next Sunday (Sunderland) and April 2nd (Norwich).... Win both and they stay up, lose either and chances are they are down...
If they win both they'll have 30 points, they'll need more than that
Lose either and they are down. Its the results of the 3 games between Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland that will determine the pecking order on the ladder to safety - its 3 teams fighting for the 1 place out and all those matches are cup final six pointers...
The only exception would be if 2 teams put on a good enough run to overhaul Swansea or Crystal Palace - and can you see any of those teams doing that....
Right, OK. Based on the flimsy anecdotal evidence presented in an error-strewn article published by a notoriously flaky magazine you've decided to promote something that confirms your own prejudices (also see Mike's ludicrous post a few days ago based on one tweet from a hard right loon and this diaphonous fluff masquerading as investigative journalism) as gospel. What a surprise. It doesn't ring true with my local constituency, that's for sure.
I suspect the aspiration for trains to run at 250 mph came about to help make the business case for the project. Personally I would pull the plug on it.
The thing you need to bear in mind is that in 30 years, the need for HS2 will be unarguable. As with Crossrail and the Thameslink programme, "cancelling" it will merely put it on ice until it's desperately needed - and then we'll have to wait 20 years for it to be built.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
I agree with the idea of scrapping all the exemptions from IHT, while sharply cutting the rate from 40%, to perhaps 10%.
Agreed 100%. A 10% rate with no exemptions would probably garner the same revenues, with massively less unfairness.
I suggested something similar yesterday, a 5% rate with no exceptions (except a threshold).
Given the real rate currently received is about 2% then that would still be a boost.
Personally, I've never understood why it is the estate that gets taxed rather than the beneficiary. Surely an inheritance is just income.
If Leave wins, I strongly doubt Dave will go, not quietly anyway - the noises coming from his camp now suggest that this was simply an idle threat designed to spend his own political capital getting people to vote for the EU to keep him as PM, as well it looking like the honourable stance.
Now that the result of the referendum doesn't look quite so assured, the folly of this position is becoming clear. None of the Cameronite successors, the inner cabal (May, Hammond, Osborne, Hague) look likely to succeed him, because they have all meekly lined up behind 'Remain'. Thus if Cameron resigns, the Tory party could 'go rogue' just as Labour has. Boris would be the only way for the establishment to keep a firm grip on the party, but he's a volatile character and no-one is quite sure of him.
In my opinion the best thing for the Cameronite faction would have been to plant someone, May or Hague probably, on the Leave side, ready to try for the leadership in the unlikely event of a Leave victory. As it stands, the only thing in the event of a Leave victory will be for Cameron to hold grimly on 'for the sake of the country'. At which point he pretty much becomes Edward Heath.
I suppose the salient point of the header is not what Labour MPs will do but Labour voters. Will they be bothered to come out and vote in the EU Referendum if they find it difficult to support the Party in the May elections ?
My constituency (East Ham) is about as Labour as it gets (5% swing to Labour from Conservatives in May and had that been repeated nationally we'd be in a very different world now). We have had literally nothing for the Mayoral, GLA or EU Referendum contests from anyone (including Labour).
Given John Biggs had an 82,000 majority in the GLA seat this time I suspect Labour will feel they are well placed to hold the seat but Khan needs the numbers as does Labour on the GLA. Labour had a fantastic 2012 result on the GLA despite losing the Mayoral contest and it's not inconceivable though very difficult to see Labour taking an overall majority - they could pick up Havering & Redbridge from the Conservatives.
But it's all about the numbers and ensuring Khan gets the second preferences from the small but not insignificant pool of non-Conservative and non-Labour voters. Yet the IPSOS MORI numbers the other day suggested Khan led 31-16 on those second preferences which may explain why the Standard on Friday made a thinly-veiled pitch to Green voters to put Goldsmith as their second choice. It probably also explains Goldsmith's pitch to LEAVE as that might get him UKIP second preferences.
In a close contest, the second preferences are significant but if Khan is level with Goldsmith in Outer London it won't be that close but Inner London still has to deliver the Labour votes (Khan is currently 15 points ahead).
I suspect the aspiration for trains to run at 250 mph came about to help make the business case for the project. Personally I would pull the plug on it.
The thing you need to bear in mind is that in 30 years, the need for HS2 will be unarguable. As with Crossrail and the Thameslink programme, "cancelling" it will merely put it on ice until it's desperately needed - and then we'll have to wait 20 years for it to be built.
So it's an essential project being badly implemented.... The question is how do you sell the project in a way that people will buy into it today...
Personally I'm not so sure its as required now as it was 10 years ago. If cars get to the point that they can drive themselves why would you want the train for a long distance journey unless you really needed to be in the city centre....
@David Herdson South Africa's majority black electorate has a very different political history and culture; one formed from oppression and a need for unity sufficient to overlook abuses of power. Even so, the ANC will fall there too sooner or later.
Catch up. Much later if Mugabe of Zimbabwe is anything to go by, David.
Thats like saying Cameron will end up like Putin because they're both white Europeans. Not all black people are the same, FYI.
@David Herdson South Africa's majority black electorate has a very different political history and culture; one formed from oppression and a need for unity sufficient to overlook abuses of power. Even so, the ANC will fall there too sooner or later.
Catch up. Much later if Mugabe of Zimbabwe is anything to go by, David.
Thats like saying Cameron will end up like Putin because they're both white Europeans. Not all black people are the same, FYI.
Yes, the golf club bore racism so prevalent on here is quite tragic.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
I think that you are forgetting how in form Leicester are now. Every key player fit and playing the best in their lives, no sign of nerves and a tactical genius as manager. We are where we are because we are a very good team.
We are 5 points clear with 9 games to go and a favourable run-in. Plenty of value on Leicester still at evens.
You are missing the point. Ranieri would rather be opposing McLaren than Benitez is what I pointed out.
Perhaps, but so would Spurs and Man City.
We are also hoping that LVG lasts until we play them too!
TSE: Labour voters want to turf out this nasty Conservative government - not just Cameron. Actually, amongst the Tories on parade, he is the least detestable.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
I agree with the idea of scrapping all the exemptions from IHT, while sharply cutting the rate from 40%, to perhaps 10%.
I would be happy to take RCS1000s approach and charge it to beneficiary at income tax rates. We could clamp down on the 50% of tax havens that Britain owns too.
I suspect the aspiration for trains to run at 250 mph came about to help make the business case for the project. Personally I would pull the plug on it.
The thing you need to bear in mind is that in 30 years, the need for HS2 will be unarguable. As with Crossrail and the Thameslink programme, "cancelling" it will merely put it on ice until it's desperately needed - and then we'll have to wait 20 years for it to be built.
I think adding new capacity is unarguable. We are never given alternatives. It is either HS2 or nothing ? Like it is Trident or nothing. I am pro-nuclear weapon and the N-button but not convinced that the only way to achieve that is to spend £100bn and rising on that.
'But the press is still largely free, and the Democratic Alliance has managed to consolidate power around the Cape, and there is real pluralism down there.'
The problem is, it was when a genuine alternative to Mugabe-ism emerged in Zimbabwe that the real trouble started.
The other big concern is the increasingly poor performance of the economy; nothing like Zimbabwe yet of course but stagnation will increase the danger of populist and confiscational policies.
TSE: Labour voters want to turf out this nasty Conservative government - not just Cameron. Actually, amongst the Tories on parade, he is the least detestable.
Depends on Labour voter. I have voted Labour in most general elections and would prefer capable social democratic govt to Tories. Sadly thats not on offer. I also dislike Cameron more than most Tories due to his House of Cards approach to politics.
On Premiership relegation, I thought Norwich played well yesterday and they have to entertain both Newcastle and Sunderland at Carrow Road - I'd have thought 35 points would be enough for survival.
As someone who travels across London most weekdays from 7am, I can assure everyone capacity is the one and only problem. There are both too many passengers and not enough trains and that's with tubes coming through East Ham every 90 seconds or so at peak time. Convert the line to an enclosed travelator and we might all get somewhere.
Any problem anywhere quickly compounds the problem out of control - last Wednesday the suspension of the C2C service through Barking and West Ham put enormous pressure on the stations and tubes. I really worry about a crush-type disaster one day.
Unfortunately, we have 21st Century technology, 20th Century organisations and 19th century cultures where the notion of "long hours" is more like prison than work.
TSE: Labour voters want to turf out this nasty Conservative government - not just Cameron. Actually, amongst the Tories on parade, he is the least detestable.
Yes, almost a full Labourite, it's really cruel how you can sniff him out.
Strategies that emphasize discreet targeting rely on the assumption that voters have fixed preferences. But voters do not sit neatly inside the boxes attributed to them by political marketers. Opinion is a mercurial substance. Political scientists have found over and over that people don’t reach their views by a process of careful rationalization, but follow their gut and make up reasons afterwards. They can find themselves drawn viscerally to politicians for reasons even they do not fully understand.
I suspect the aspiration for trains to run at 250 mph came about to help make the business case for the project. Personally I would pull the plug on it.
The thing you need to bear in mind is that in 30 years, the need for HS2 will be unarguable. As with Crossrail and the Thameslink programme, "cancelling" it will merely put it on ice until it's desperately needed - and then we'll have to wait 20 years for it to be built.
I think adding new capacity is unarguable. We are never given alternatives. It is either HS2 or nothing ? Like it is Trident or nothing. I am pro-nuclear weapon and the N-button but not convinced that the only way to achieve that is to spend £100bn and rising on that.
Same with HS2.
I agree. We need trains that stop at intermediate stations and interchange with other lines, new lines quite certainly, but HS2? I am unconvinced. With increased speed come increased fuel consumption and increased engineering demand. In a compact country like ours is more than 100 mph needed?
Strategies that emphasize discreet targeting rely on the assumption that voters have fixed preferences. But voters do not sit neatly inside the boxes attributed to them by political marketers. Opinion is a mercurial substance. Political scientists have found over and over that people don’t reach their views by a process of careful rationalization, but follow their gut and make up reasons afterwards. They can find themselves drawn viscerally to politicians for reasons even they do not fully understand.
Seems clear all this lefty agitprop against Trump will help him.
Yes. The idiots on militant left always promise a reckoning but just end up undermining effective centre left platforms.
Has Trump's claim that the nutter that tried to attack him yesterday was an ISIS supporter been verified?
Talking of terrorist supporters, Sadiq Khan's mate is getting the soft soap treatment by the Guardian / BBC today. Makes me sick...but then the BBC also recently invited a paedo, who also kidnapped and held a disabled man for ransom, to plug his latest single.
I don't think Benitez is the right person for a relegation scrap, or has time to work his influence by Monday.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
I wouldn't be so sure. From what I've heard the players hadn't been trying for McClaren. Newcastle's deficiencies won't disappear overnight but you might find Newcastle a tougher nut to crack than you're expecting.
I think that you are forgetting how in form Leicester are now. Every key player fit and playing the best in their lives, no sign of nerves and a tactical genius as manager. We are where we are because we are a very good team.
We are 5 points clear with 9 games to go and a favourable run-in. Plenty of value on Leicester still at evens.
You are missing the point. Ranieri would rather be opposing McLaren than Benitez is what I pointed out.
Perhaps, but so would Spurs and Man City.
We are also hoping that LVG lasts until we play them too!
Are you incapable of thinking objectively?
Perfectly capable! Benitez is no magician. He cannot polish a turd by Monday, but may by the time Spurs play Newcastle on the final day of the season.
On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?
I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.
I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.
The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :
I understand that but due to the pernicious effect of socialist parties raising taxes repeatedly, as well as the globalised nature of the world today making income and investments easier to change jurisdictions than ever before, we are to the right of the peak of the curve.
Nonsense. The best academic evidence trying to find this suggest we're on slight left of peak for income taxes. On IHT we are well to the left.
I agree with the idea of scrapping all the exemptions from IHT, while sharply cutting the rate from 40%, to perhaps 10%.
Agreed 100%. A 10% rate with no exemptions would probably garner the same revenues, with massively less unfairness.
I suggested something similar yesterday, a 5% rate with no exceptions (except a threshold).
Given the real rate currently received is about 2% then that would still be a boost.
Personally, I've never understood why it is the estate that gets taxed rather than the beneficiary. Surely an inheritance is just income.
It's capital, but no CGT is paid on death, which saves the more modest estates quite a bit...
I suspect the aspiration for trains to run at 250 mph came about to help make the business case for the project. Personally I would pull the plug on it.
The thing you need to bear in mind is that in 30 years, the need for HS2 will be unarguable. As with Crossrail and the Thameslink programme, "cancelling" it will merely put it on ice until it's desperately needed - and then we'll have to wait 20 years for it to be built.
I think adding new capacity is unarguable. We are never given alternatives. It is either HS2 or nothing ? Like it is Trident or nothing. I am pro-nuclear weapon and the N-button but not convinced that the only way to achieve that is to spend £100bn and rising on that.
Same with HS2.
I agree. We need trains that stop at intermediate stations and interchange with other lines, new lines quite certainly, but HS2? I am unconvinced. With increased speed come increased fuel consumption and increased engineering demand. In a compact country like ours is more than 100 mph needed?
Thirded. Although is HS2 not designed to fit with the EU-wide rail strategy?
My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.
He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.
When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.
Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.
But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.
I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!
I don't share this pessimism re Labour in Scotland. The SNP bubble will pop eventually, it's in the nature of bubbles.
Sturgeon did a good job this week pretending she 's gonna fight for another indyref ASAFP, but what happens when her fundamentalist new supporters realise that she is bluffing? That she has no intention of calling a vote in the next parliament, for the very good reason that it would be lost?
Plus, she will be in charge of income tax. She won't be able to blame Westminster so easily, even though the Tories have given her as good a fiscal deal as possible, so as to keep her in power, and cripple Scottish Labour.
When the SNP edifice crumbles, which I suspect it will, slowly, from 2016 on, cui bono?
It's not impossible to see SLAB revive. Get rid of Corbyn, and they could revive quite quickly.
LOL, not your best guess Sean
Fair enough, we differ - but my first point is inarguable. Today, tomorrow, next week or next decade, the SNP will slide from power, and they will become unpopular, for a time. Perhaps very unpopular. It is in the nature of things. The cycle of life. Nothing is forever, and so forth.
So if you believe it is impossible for SLAB to revive, are you telling me you foresee a Tory government in Holyrood? Because SOMEONE has to take over from Sturgeon and the Nats. Who will it be, if not Labour?
At some point independence will happen and then we will see a complete change in the politics / parties etc. Tories and Labour will not recover till they are Scottish parties and not just a menial sub office of the London parties. The genie is out of the bottle, unless UK gets rich and untold cash is sent northward instead of constant budget cuts. I do agree with your first point though and am not under any illusion that the SNP are a panacea for all ills.
When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.
Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.
But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.
I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!
It's not impossible to see SLAB revive. Get rid of Corbyn, and they could revive quite quickly.
LOL, not your best guess Sean
Fair enough, we differ - but my first point is inarguable. Today, tomorrow, next week or next decade, the SNP will slide from power, and they will become unpopular, for a time. Perhaps very unpopular. It is in the nature of things. The cycle of life. Nothing is forever, and so forth.
So if you believe it is impossible for SLAB to revive, are you telling me you foresee a Tory government in Holyrood? Because SOMEONE has to take over from Sturgeon and the Nats. Who will it be, if not Labour?
It could be a Party, or an alliance of Parties, that doesn't yet exist. What you say, Sean, is true as far as it goes - but, for example, apply your logic to South Africa and the ANC and where do you get to?
I think Scotland is politically cowed and dominated, to an unhealthy extent, by the SNP, but until the moment they start necklacing Unionists in the keep of Stirling Castle, I won't accept they've quite reached the level of post-apartheid South Africa.
So they are popular and people vote for them rather than the useless opposition , so we are cowed and dominated , what utter bollox. Is England cowed by the Tories?
At some point independence will happen and then we will see a complete change in the politics / parties etc. Tories and Labour will not recover till they are Scottish parties and not just a menial sub office of the London parties. The genie is out of the bottle, unless UK gets rich and untold cash is sent northward instead of constant budget cuts. I do agree with your first point though and am not under any illusion that the SNP are a panacea for all ills.
Malcolm, if I may ask, are you a Leaver or a Remainer?
@iainmartin1: Sturgeon defence to @afneil is independence black hole wld have been equivalent to impact of financial catastrophe of 2008. So that's ok.
Comments
If, as you desire, you pull the plug on it, you need to say how you will deal with the capacity issues, given that passenger numbers have continued to increase (see my second link). When doing that, you need to consider that upgrading existing lines is phenomenally expensive - the WCML upgrade a decade ago did not meet specification or cost despite costing around £10 billion (ten times the planned cost), and the GWML electrification is, from memory, three times over the initial planned costs.
We're still waiting for that to happen to Mugabe. And the ANC hasn't even started with the scorched earth tactics yet
Although I'd hazard a guess that it's more to do with the fact that people like Rennard were involved with recruitment. They should put a process in place designed to get the best people into parliament, regardless of gender, age or ethnicity, rather than one designed to get friends in, or yes-men, or people who will put up with sexual pests.
I don't care whether my MP is male, female, gay, straight, or all of those at different times.
This is not just a Lib Dem thing: it's a problem all Westminster parties have (I cannot speak for Wales and Scotland as I have not looked into it).
Incidentally N4E, after City getting a draw yesterday how's the odds on away experiment going?
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/Magazine/Features/article1675950.ece
History and global evidence in practice shows we are to the right.
Brown raising taxes harmed tax receipts. Hollande raising tax rates has done tremendous damage to his economy. Osborne cutting tax rates has raised tax revenues = Laffer in action.
The problem is that this railway will not be used by ordinary people. I don't see how the current government can tolerate what is happening on GTR at the moment, with workers paying a fortune for a truly terrible service. How can it be right that the government is proposing to spend a fortune on a new railway line when some of the current railways are being run so badly?
That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.
Matthew Parris once suggested that the actual percentage was about 20%.
Hate to say it but lay Spurs this afternoon, just the sort of game they mess up, on the back of 1 draw from the last 3. That said Dortmund would win the PL by a mile.
I thought that had been done some years ago under one of New Labour's many CJ acts.
"I worked very hard to ensure those Lib Dems would writing their memoirs", says @George_Osborne of David Laws' book
I believe the suggestion was that upto 20% could be LGBT if you include those "in the closet". However that's not comparing like for like, there could be and likely are closeted MPs too. That's why I compared open with open, I doubt that 5% of our general population are openly gay.
But Ms Sturgeon has played down Labour’s call to increase the rate for the highest earners – on more than £150,000 – from 45p to 50p.
The First Minister said fewer than 20,000 Scots earn this amount. She added: “These are some of the most mobile people in the country and it wouldn’t take very many of them to shift their outcome out of Scotland for us not to raise money through that but to lose revenue.”
http://www.scotsman.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-to-set-out-higher-taxes-for-better-paid-scots-1-4063808#ixzz42m8rnSaz
Sorry, I was unclear. He thought the true figure for Parliament was 20%.
Do you think when Beveridge was talking about the Giant Evils that he would imagine that someone on welfare could be watching Sky Sports on a giant flatscreen TV while browsing their iPhone? Not only because the technology didn't exist then but no.
It's a real shame that ONS chickened out of asking the question in the 2011 Census. Tests showed response rates did fall when the question was included, but it would be worthwhile given the arguments about representation.
He may sharpen things up for the NE derby next week, and for the home matches against Man City and Spurs. Once again it turns out nicely for Leicester!
Villa are very poor, and there may well be another home protest. Spurs should have 3 easy points. It is now a two horse race.
Spurs will win comfortably this afternoon, while as you say Rafa might boost things at Newcastle, not easy for a Chelsea fan to say but I have a horrible feeling Spurs will nick the PL. My bet on City has sunk without a fight.
Made a few quid buying bookings this week, concentrating on the games that really matter, both the Chelsea games in this instance.
Bookings are 39 to buy at Utd this afternoon, bought that as I thought it would be significantly higher.
Ah I misunderstood sorry.
"Yes. Whenever I've been to Westminster it has always struck me how sexualised it is, in both straight and gay ways. Just a lot of hormones all over the place."
Are you sure you aren't confusing it with Soho up the road?
The shortlist thing is surely unworkable, anyway. How do you prove you are gay? I once had a *gay moment* with a friend, while drunk, and I am 100% heterosexual. Perhaps I could apply for the bi-curious Lib Dem PPC shortlist, based on that one boozy night in late April 1998.
Women are only three drinks from a lesbian kiss at least, or so I've always been led to believe.
Given the real rate currently received is about 2% then that would still be a boost.
At the moment Labour have opted out of serious politics for a bit of self indulgence. I don't think it gets better for Leave than that.
My impression is that the key motivation for "leavers" is a passionate desire not to be ruled by continentals, particularly the nasty Germans, and therefore is particularly keenly felt by those of an older generation who remember WWII and to a lesser extent their children, but not by younger people. People like me who are old enough to have voted no in 1975 are likely to do so again, but we are a dwindling minority. BTW, I am not British by ethnicity.
Deal.
All those male fantasies more like. Reminds me of LOL Kyle moment last week. Wife had lesbian affair and hubby wanted to know why he hadn't been invited. Women are only three drinks from a lesbian kiss at least, or so I've always been led to believe.
Apologies if you see this as an excuse for people to vote against Labour, It's not meant to be. I'm PB's leading Cameroon toady, and if you notice I did say the consequence of this could be Dave's premiership ending, something I would find utterly devastating.
This thread was inspired by a Labour activist friend, who is an ardent Pro EU person, we had lunch the other day, and he mentioned a low Labour turnout in June coupled with a Labour leadership contest could ruin Remain's chances.
I thought his ideas would make for a good thread header.
South Africa's majority black electorate has a very different political history and culture; one formed from oppression and a need for unity sufficient to overlook abuses of power. Even so, the ANC will fall there too sooner or later.
Catch up.
Much later if Mugabe of Zimbabwe is anything to go by, David.
We are 5 points clear with 9 games to go and a favourable run-in. Plenty of value on Leicester still at evens.
Much later if Mugabe of Zimbabwe is anything to go by, David.
True. Although Mugabe has come close to falling more than once and the state apparatus in S Africa isn't as much in the ANC's hands as the equivalent over the border. Still, it's been on a worrying trend for a long time.
"Thatcher the fur coat thief" is one of the best David Laws anecdotes https://t.co/vhhssc6vPS https://t.co/yMQlzi8R9w
to be honest the only match for Newcastle that matters is next Sunday (Sunderland) and April 2nd (Norwich).... Win both and they stay up, lose either and chances are they are down...
1) It is as certain as these things can be that there will be a PLP-inspired coup against Corbyn at some point;
2) Most leading coup plotters are also very committed to a Remain vote - they see this as more important even than the LP leadership in the short term;
3) So there will not be a coup after May and before the EU ref, however bad Labour's results.
Labour is already doing quite a lot at ground level on the EU ref- canvassing for the local elections also includes a referendum question and leaflets are being distributed. It isn't getting much coverage because it is not very exciting - Tory cabinet splits are a much better media story.
The corollary of the closing argument is, I suppose, if you're an ardent REMAIN supporter, don't vote either Conservative or UKIP as it will weaken the LEAVE campaign.
Ho hum...
As far as May (the month, not the Home Secretary) is concerned, the key results will be London and Wales - nobody expects anything other than a convincing SNP win in the Scottish Parliament elections though it remains an interesting point how long the SNP coalition will hold together.
I'm no Conservative as you know but the view in London is Goldsmith has been slow out the traps and his support for LEAVE may not play too well. However, it's easy to assume Party members and voters are monolithic on this - apart from UKIP, for obvious reasons, there are LEAVE and REMAIN elements in all parties. The LDs have a LEAVE grouping which say surprise some or none.
I think the plan is to persuade non-voters that the next time they don't vote, Labour should be the party they don't vote for.
We are also hoping that LVG lasts until we play them too!
By this point in Zimbabwe's cycle, the economy had been destroyed, critical newspapers were closed, and electoral fraud was rampant. Hopefully, and it is only a hope, South Africa will avoid Zimbabwe's mistakes.
The only exception would be if 2 teams put on a good enough run to overhaul Swansea or Crystal Palace - and can you see any of those teams doing that....
Now that the result of the referendum doesn't look quite so assured, the folly of this position is becoming clear. None of the Cameronite successors, the inner cabal (May, Hammond, Osborne, Hague) look likely to succeed him, because they have all meekly lined up behind 'Remain'. Thus if Cameron resigns, the Tory party could 'go rogue' just as Labour has. Boris would be the only way for the establishment to keep a firm grip on the party, but he's a volatile character and no-one is quite sure of him.
In my opinion the best thing for the Cameronite faction would have been to plant someone, May or Hague probably, on the Leave side, ready to try for the leadership in the unlikely event of a Leave victory. As it stands, the only thing in the event of a Leave victory will be for Cameron to hold grimly on 'for the sake of the country'. At which point he pretty much becomes Edward Heath.
My constituency (East Ham) is about as Labour as it gets (5% swing to Labour from Conservatives in May and had that been repeated nationally we'd be in a very different world now). We have had literally nothing for the Mayoral, GLA or EU Referendum contests from anyone (including Labour).
Given John Biggs had an 82,000 majority in the GLA seat this time I suspect Labour will feel they are well placed to hold the seat but Khan needs the numbers as does Labour on the GLA. Labour had a fantastic 2012 result on the GLA despite losing the Mayoral contest and it's not inconceivable though very difficult to see Labour taking an overall majority - they could pick up Havering & Redbridge from the Conservatives.
But it's all about the numbers and ensuring Khan gets the second preferences from the small but not insignificant pool of non-Conservative and non-Labour voters. Yet the IPSOS MORI numbers the other day suggested Khan led 31-16 on those second preferences which may explain why the Standard on Friday made a thinly-veiled pitch to Green voters to put Goldsmith as their second choice. It probably also explains Goldsmith's pitch to LEAVE as that might get him UKIP second preferences.
In a close contest, the second preferences are significant but if Khan is level with Goldsmith in Outer London it won't be that close but Inner London still has to deliver the Labour votes (Khan is currently 15 points ahead).
Personally I'm not so sure its as required now as it was 10 years ago. If cars get to the point that they can drive themselves why would you want the train for a long distance journey unless you really needed to be in the city centre....
Much later if Mugabe of Zimbabwe is anything to go by, David.
Thats like saying Cameron will end up like Putin because they're both white Europeans. Not all black people are the same, FYI.
Yes, the golf club bore racism so prevalent on here is quite tragic.
Same with HS2.
The problem is, it was when a genuine alternative to Mugabe-ism emerged in Zimbabwe that the real trouble started.
The other big concern is the increasingly poor performance of the economy; nothing like Zimbabwe yet of course but stagnation will increase the danger of populist and confiscational policies.
As someone who travels across London most weekdays from 7am, I can assure everyone capacity is the one and only problem. There are both too many passengers and not enough trains and that's with tubes coming through East Ham every 90 seconds or so at peak time. Convert the line to an enclosed travelator and we might all get somewhere.
Any problem anywhere quickly compounds the problem out of control - last Wednesday the suspension of the C2C service through Barking and West Ham put enormous pressure on the stations and tubes. I really worry about a crush-type disaster one day.
Unfortunately, we have 21st Century technology, 20th Century organisations and 19th century cultures where the notion of "long hours" is more like prison than work.
http://capx.co/trump-and-the-power-of-the-mass-audience/
This is what happens when Social Justice takes over an institution. U of Delaware's Handbook: https://t.co/WTOQdGW43V
Yes. The idiots on militant left always promise a reckoning but just end up undermining effective centre left platforms.
Talking of terrorist supporters, Sadiq Khan's mate is getting the soft soap treatment by the Guardian / BBC today. Makes me sick...but then the BBC also recently invited a paedo, who also kidnapped and held a disabled man for ransom, to plug his latest single.
I do agree with your first point though and am not under any illusion that the SNP are a panacea for all ills.
Is England cowed by the Tories?