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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

Whilst it might seem like the EU referendum is solely an internal Tory party matter, if David Cameron wants Remain to win, he’s going to need Labour voters to turn out for Remain. David Cameron may not be the best person to get Labour voters to come out and vote for Remain, so he’s going to be reliant on Labour politicians to do that for him.

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foxinsoxuk

First.

Not sure that I agree. A leadership campaign would probably be launched in June and could easily include prospective candidates burnishing their credentials as campaigners and good Europeans, as a prodrome to a formal bid.

GeoffM

Second, like Remain

Ally_B

Third, as in the percentage of the vote Leave will get

PeterC

Nothing changes the fact that in a leadership election Corbyn would stand a very good chance of being reelected. The hard left are not so much interested in winning in the conventional sense, rather they want party conrol. I doubt the Labour moderates have the nous to instigate a coup; even if they did it would likely flop and they would make their predicament yet worse.

foxinsoxuk

PeterC said:

Nothing changes the fact that in a leadership election Corbyn would stand a very good chance of being reelected. The hard left are not so much interested in winning in the conventional sense, rather they want party conrol. I doubt the Labour moderates have the nous to instigate a coup; even if they did it would likely flop and they would make their predicament yet worse.

Flop or not. This summer is the time to move. Whoever wis the Brexit referendum there are scores to be settled in the Tories, so a good time for Labour to make itself electable again.

The Unions may well no longer be on Corbyns side.

OldKingCole

foxinsoxuk said:

PeterC said:

Nothing changes the fact that in a leadership election Corbyn would stand a very good chance of being reelected. The hard left are not so much interested in winning in the conventional sense, rather they want party conrol. I doubt the Labour moderates have the nous to instigate a coup; even if they did it would likely flop and they would make their predicament yet worse.

Flop or not. This summer is the time to move. Whoever wis the Brexit referendum there are scores to be settled in the Tories, so a good time for Labour to make itself electable again.

The Unions may well no longer be on Corbyns side.

Agree with both Dr F’s posts.

ydoethur

foxinsoxuk said:

PeterC said:

Nothing changes the fact that in a leadership election Corbyn would stand a very good chance of being reelected. The hard left are not so much interested in winning in the conventional sense, rather they want party conrol. I doubt the Labour moderates have the nous to instigate a coup; even if they did it would likely flop and they would make their predicament yet worse.

Flop or not. This summer is the time to move. Whoever wis the Brexit referendum there are scores to be settled in the Tories, so a good time for Labour to make itself electable again.

The Unions may well no longer be on Corbyns side.

Do you honestly think merely changing the leader to somebody who doesn't look and behave like a refugee from a lunatic asylum will make Labour electable? I think they are going to have to work very hard to repair their credibility.

Last year, I was convinced Labour would retake Cannock because it was impossible to find anyone who would admit to voting Conservative. They lost by a huge margin even while piling up votes on the district council. Now, only one person admits to supporting Labour even in the school staff room, and it leads to people looking away in embarrassment or hurriedly changing the subject. We have to consider this impoverished ex-mining area a safe Tory seat.

It will take Labour ten years to recover from this. If there is a failed coup, add another ten as it will be obvious Corbyn was not a momentary aberration but a grim sign of the real unpleasantness and stupidity of the party.

PS - I think I accidentally marked your comment as off topic. That was an accident (fat finger syndrome) and I am sorry. It certainly is not off- topic.

MattW

Just catching up with the latest ironic 'protestor' names.

Dimassimo - the superlative of stupid.

That's nearly as good as "Proudman".

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

foxinsoxuk said:

PeterC said:

Nothing changes the fact that in a leadership election Corbyn would stand a very good chance of being reelected. The hard left are not so much interested in winning in the conventional sense, rather they want party conrol. I doubt the Labour moderates have the nous to instigate a coup; even if they did it would likely flop and they would make their predicament yet worse.

Flop or not. This summer is the time to move. Whoever wis the Brexit referendum there are scores to be settled in the Tories, so a good time for Labour to make itself electable again.

The Unions may well no longer be on Corbyns side.

Do you honestly think merely changing the leader to somebody who doesn't look and behave like a refugee from a lunatic asylum will make Labour electable? I think they are going to have to work very hard to repair their credibility.

Last year, I was convinced Labour would retake Cannock because it was impossible to find anyone who would admit to voting Conservative. They lost by a huge margin even while piling up votes on the district council. Now, only one person admits to supporting Labour even in the school staff room, and it leads to people looking away in embarrassment or hurriedly changing the subject. We have to consider this impoverished ex-mining area a safe Tory seat.

It will take Labour ten years to recover from this. If there is a failed coup, add another ten as it will be obvious Corbyn was not a momentary aberration but a grim sign of the real unpleasantness and stupidity of the party.

PS - I think I accidentally marked your comment as off topic. That was an accident (fat finger syndrome) and I am sorry. It certainly is not off- topic.

Deposing Corbyn is a pre-requisite for making Labour electable again, but I agree is a long way from the entire job. It is not just about policy (on Trident or whatever) but principally about competence. Jezza couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery.

We see in council elections that Labour (and Lib Dems) are doing quite well. The parties are not holed below the waterline.

Don't worry about the off topic (surely a bit redundant on pb!) If you click on it a second time it reverses.

bigjohnowls

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

foxinsoxuk

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.

But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.

I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!

SouthamObserver

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

ydoethur

foxinsoxuk said:

We see in council elections that Labour (and Lib Dems) are doing quite well. The parties are not holed below the waterline.

bigjohnowls said:

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

I think those points deserve to be considered together. It is not impossible I would vote Labour in May if I had a vote (I don't, as it happens). Why? Because actually, in Cannock Chase the Labour council are in my view doing pretty well under tough circumstances. Services are being maintained, the staff work hard, and council tax is not high. I think most residents approve of them although there are as ever some grumbles. And the Conservative opposition are rubbish.

But I would never, ever vote at Westminster level for a party led by a man who has shared a platform with a Holocaust Denier.

If such a decoupling occurs on a large scale then it remains entirely possible Labour could better Miliband's less than stellar 2011 performance while heading for a much heavier defeat in 2020 than he managed.

NorfolkTilIDie

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

Its unreasonable to judge Labour on Scotland given game changed before Corbyn was in charge. But he should be judged on both London and councis.

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

foxinsoxuk said:

We see in council elections that Labour (and Lib Dems) are doing quite well. The parties are not holed below the waterline.

bigjohnowls said:

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

I think those points deserve to be considered together. It is not impossible I would vote Labour in May if I had a vote (I don't, as it happens). Why? Because actually, in Cannock Chase the Labour council are in my view doing pretty well under tough circumstances. Services are being maintained, the staff work hard, and council tax is not high. I think most residents approve of them although there are as ever some grumbles. And the Conservative opposition are rubbish.

But I would never, ever vote at Westminster level for a party led by a man who has shared a platform with a Holocaust Denier.

If such a decoupling occurs on a large scale then it remains entirely possible Labour could better Miliband's less than stellar 2011 performance while heading for a much heavier defeat in 2020 than he managed.

I think that there has been quite a noticeable decoupling between local election performance and national polling.

I want to see Corbyn gone by a democratic contested election. Anything else would be very divisive. The Trots have to be defeated in the open.

Jezza is unenthused at best about the EU, while the MPs, voters and Unions are solidly for Remain. That may well be the final straw - if Jezza fails to put up a decent fight for something that the party is strongly behind,and the younger membership in particular.

SouthamObserver

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.

But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.

I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!

There'll be no coup. If Corbyn goes it will be via the front door after due process and the unions will do most of the work.

The thing is, though, that Corbyn makes affluent Labour members feel good about themselves while his unelectability also means they continue to benefit from Tory policies in the pocket. For many of them he's the ideal leader really.

bigjohnowls

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

"Labour under-performed in 2012" As I say the Blairites hope we dont notice. Thanks for proving the point.

Labour were 6% ahead in 2012 and gained 823 seats and 32 councils.

Whats not to like?

You are the one who sees Tory rule as the least bad option remember.

Wanderer

Trump has drifted quite a bit. Just reaction to his rally dramas?

NorfolkTilIDie

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

SouthamObserver

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

Labour were 6% ahead in 2012 and gained 823 seats and 32 councils.

Whats not to like?

You are the one who sees Tory rule as the least bad option remember.

If it's a choice between Cameron and Corbyn of course I'd prefer the former. But the choice stinks. That's entirely the fault of Labour party members.

As I say, Labour under-performed in 2012 and then went on to be crushed in the general election. Of course, Corbynistas will dismiss this while blaming "Blairites", but then Corbynistas have no interest in Labour winning elections.

bigjohnowls

COUNCIL RESULTS: Labour +32, Tories -12 and Lib Dems -1
NUMBER OF SEATS: Labour +823, Tories -405, Lib Dems -336
Labour on course for big gains in local elections, with 39% of the vote against Tories with 31% and Lib Dems 16%
Councillors turn on 'catastrophe Clegg' as his party loses 50% of seats
Coalition civil war as Tories urge Cameron to ditch 'barmy liberal' policies like gay marriage and Lords reform


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2139218/Local-elections-2012-Bloody-nose-David-Cameron-Labour-gains-800-seats.html#ixzz42lWZTpZL
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Blairite who prefers Tory rule to a Labour Government thinks this is underperforming

SouthamObserver

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

Its unreasonable to judge Labour on Scotland given game changed before Corbyn was in charge. But he should be judged on both London and councis.

Corbyn himself identified Scotland as a priority. At the very least, it's clear he is entirely irrelevant there. That was not supposed to be the case.

NorfolkTilIDie

bigjohnowls said:

COUNCIL RESULTS: Labour +32, Tories -12 and Lib Dems -1
NUMBER OF SEATS: Labour +823, Tories -405, Lib Dems -336
Labour on course for big gains in local elections, with 39% of the vote against Tories with 31% and Lib Dems 16%
Councillors turn on 'catastrophe Clegg' as his party loses 50% of seats
Coalition civil war as Tories urge Cameron to ditch 'barmy liberal' policies like gay marriage and Lords reform


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2139218/Local-elections-2012-Bloody-nose-David-Cameron-Labour-gains-800-seats.html#ixzz42lWZTpZL
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Blairite who prefers Tory rule to a Labour Government thinks this is underperforming

You don't need to be Blairite to realise Corbyn would be disaster as PM.

bigjohnowls

Corbynistas have no interest in Labour winning elections.

Except they will be out their trying to win every seat whilst you vote Tory.

SouthamObserver

bigjohnowls said:

COUNCIL RESULTS: Labour +32, Tories -12 and Lib Dems -1
NUMBER OF SEATS: Labour +823, Tories -405, Lib Dems -336
Labour on course for big gains in local elections, with 39% of the vote against Tories with 31% and Lib Dems 16%
Councillors turn on 'catastrophe Clegg' as his party loses 50% of seats
Coalition civil war as Tories urge Cameron to ditch 'barmy liberal' policies like gay marriage and Lords reform


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2139218/Local-elections-2012-Bloody-nose-David-Cameron-Labour-gains-800-seats.html#ixzz42lWZTpZL
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Blairite who prefers Tory rule to a Labour Government thinks this is underperforming

Yep, it was nowhere near enough at that stage of the electoral cycle and preceded a Labour disaster at the general election. I understand why you want to ignore that simple fact; but a fact it is.

SouthamObserver

bigjohnowls said:

Corbynistas have no interest in Labour winning elections.

Except they will be out their trying to win every seat whilst you vote Tory.

I don't vote Tory. Never have, never will.

Corbynistas, it turns out, are not actually turning up.

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/whats-happened-to-all-the-new-labour-party-members-corbyn?utm_source=vicetwitteruk

bigjohnowls

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Corbynistas have no interest in Labour winning elections.

Except they will be out their trying to win every seat whilst you vote Tory.

I don't vote Tory. Never have, never will.

Corbynistas, it turns out, are not actually turning up.

Except they will be out their trying to win every seat whilst you hope the Tories win.

Not my experience most of the new members are out there campaigning leafleting etc not sniping at every opportunity

bigjohnowls

@SouthernObserver definition of someone not wanting Labour to win is the person knocking on more doors and delivering more leaflets than ever before despite their advancing years.

Whilst a person wanting the Party to win tries with every post to undermine them and prefers a Tory Government to a Labour one.

Strange old world.

Anyway I am off for a full English at the secret cafe. 3 bacon, 2 sausage 2 eggs black pudding tomatoes hash brown beans tomatoes and 2 toast £3.40.

Then knocking on doors in Heanor

SouthamObserver

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Corbynistas have no interest in Labour winning elections.

Except they will be out their trying to win every seat whilst you vote Tory.

I don't vote Tory. Never have, never will.

Corbynistas, it turns out, are not actually turning up.

Except they will be out their trying to win every seat whilst you hope the Tories win.

Not my experience most of the new members are out there campaigning leafleting etc not sniping at every opportunity

Clearly your experience is different :-)

If Corbynistas really wanted a Labour government they would want a different leader of the Labour party.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Chapeau to Pulpstar for the GOP DC caucus tip.

ydoethur

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Corbynistas have no interest in Labour winning elections.

Except they will be out their trying to win every seat whilst you vote Tory.

I don't vote Tory. Never have, never will.

Corbynistas, it turns out, are not actually turning up.

Except they will be out their trying to win every seat whilst you hope the Tories win.

Not my experience most of the new members are out there campaigning leafleting etc not sniping at every opportunity

New members won't win elections, there are not enough of them. Non-voters were supposed to be Corbyn's ace, or Trump's, or Sanders'...

What Corbyn has done is shore up the roughly 20% of voters on the left at the expense of the roughly 40% in the centre who will now vote Conservative faute de mieux. He did so on the assumption that the 20% who never vote would be enthused. That hasn't worked.

Cameron has given up the 20% on the right for that vote in the centre. And it's working for him in England, while the SNP sweep Scotland.

Labour can hang on at a local level, but sooner or later if they keep imploding at the top they will struggle to hold on here too. The real danger for them is of the emergence of a new centrist party, which is why they are fortunate that of their two rivals one operates in less than 10% of seats and the other is in an even worse less than Labour are.

SouthamObserver

bigjohnowls said:

@SouthernObserver definition of someone not wanting Labour to win is the person knocking on more doors and delivering more leaflets than ever before despite their advancing years.

Whilst a person wanting the Party to win tries with every post to undermine them and prefers a Tory Government to a Labour one.

Strange old world.

Anyway I am off for a full English at the secret cafe. 3 bacon, 2 sausage 2 eggs black pudding tomatoes hash brown beans tomatoes and 2 toast £3.40.

Then knocking on doors in Heanor

I would urge you not to knock on doors. Promoting Corbyn Labour merely creates more Tory voters.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I can see why donors and MPs would want to replace Corbyn. But then, I can see why I want to open my bedroom door to find Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow-fighting over which one of them gets to sleep with me. That doesn't mean I have a credible plan for making it happen.

Off-topic: good month ahead. Finale of the Six Nations and the first F1 race in a week (and we'll see just how horrendous the new qualifying is, or whether it actually works well). And in two and a half weeks my book comes out. Huzzah!

JackW

REMAIN have moved into top gear as Jeremy Clarkson opts to vote to stay in the EU -BBC R5Live.

That's the pugilist electorate sewn up for REMAIN.

JackW

Florida - Florida Atlantic Uni

Trump 44 .. Rubio21 .. Cruz 21 .. Kasich 9
Clinto 59 ..Sanders 31

Alistair

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Blairites didn't lose Scotland for Labour. Labour's behaviour in the IndyRef lost Scotland for Labour.

You can't call a huge chuck of your electorate Nazis and expect them to keep voting for you.

nigel4england

bigjohnowls said:

@SouthernObserver definition of someone not wanting Labour to win is the person knocking on more doors and delivering more leaflets than ever before despite their advancing years.

Whilst a person wanting the Party to win tries with every post to undermine them and prefers a Tory Government to a Labour one.

Strange old world.

Anyway I am off for a full English at the secret cafe. 3 bacon, 2 sausage 2 eggs black pudding tomatoes hash brown beans tomatoes and 2 toast £3.40.

Then knocking on doors in Heanor

Two lots of tomatoes? Now you are being greedy.

bigjohnowls

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

@SouthernObserver definition of someone not wanting Labour to win is the person knocking on more doors and delivering more leaflets than ever before despite their advancing years.

Whilst a person wanting the Party to win tries with every post to undermine them and prefers a Tory Government to a Labour one.

Strange old world.

Anyway I am off for a full English at the secret cafe. 3 bacon, 2 sausage 2 eggs black pudding tomatoes hash brown beans tomatoes and 2 toast £3.40.

Then knocking on doors in Heanor

I would urge you not to knock on doors. Promoting Corbyn Labour merely creates more Tory voters.

Again not in Heanor it don't but I admit thesolid heartlands aren't where we need to win

Long gone are the days of "their all the same"

Anyway have a good day

Philip_Thompson

Disagreed with this theory. A rising tide lifts all boats, if the future of the Labour Party is at stake and debated in a contest then that will raise engagement with politics not lower it.

What will lower engagement is a terrible performance followed by a leader who clearly couldn't care less whether we remain or leave being left in charge.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Owls, they're not all the same because one party's led by a man who is unhappy at the thought of shooting dead a would-be suicide bomber...

I hope Labour can replace Corbyn but I don't think they will.

Innocent_Abroad

I don't think JC's supporters see him as an "electoral messiah" any more than his opponents do. Where's your evidence, TSE, that to-day's Labour Party membership is prepared to compromise the tiniest of its principles in order to reach out to what it sees as right-wing voters? They would far sooner deselect their MPs, most of whom they deeply distrust as self-interested careerists.

What odds the SNP as the Opposition at Westminster after the next GE?

Wanderer

Philip_Thompson said:

Disagreed with this theory. A rising tide lifts all boats, if the future of the Labour Party is at stake and debated in a contest then that will raise engagement with politics not lower it.

What will lower engagement is a terrible performance followed by a leader who clearly couldn't care less whether we remain or leave being left in charge.

Quite so

Philip_Thompson

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Making gains from the middle of a General Election losing term is a high bar?

kle4

I love that picture of Corbyn - I don't know how his furious expression can be explained as anything other than, well, furious.

Philip_Thompson

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

"Labour under-performed in 2012" As I say the Blairites hope we dont notice. Thanks for proving the point.

Labour were 6% ahead in 2012 and gained 823 seats and 32 councils.

Whats not to like?

You are the one who sees Tory rule as the least bad option remember.

6% ahead in midterm? Not exactly a stellar performance! Michael Howard won an 11% lead in 2004, didn't mean he won the election the next year though did it? Even IDS won a 5% lead in 2003 so your precious "high bar" is a rounding error away from what IDS got.

In contrast Blair got a 22% lead twice while Cameron got a 20% lead. Those are high bars.

foxinsoxuk

NorfolkTilIDie said:

bigjohnowls said:

COUNCIL RESULTS: Labour +32, Tories -12 and Lib Dems -1
NUMBER OF SEATS: Labour +823, Tories -405, Lib Dems -336
Labour on course for big gains in local elections, with 39% of the vote against Tories with 31% and Lib Dems 16%
Councillors turn on 'catastrophe Clegg' as his party loses 50% of seats
Coalition civil war as Tories urge Cameron to ditch 'barmy liberal' policies like gay marriage and Lords reform


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2139218/Local-elections-2012-Bloody-nose-David-Cameron-Labour-gains-800-seats.html#ixzz42lWZTpZL
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Blairite who prefers Tory rule to a Labour Government thinks this is underperforming

You don't need to be Blairite to realise Corbyn would be disaster as PM.

Or to want to see him gone!

Corbyn's absence from the Remain/Leave debate is not going to impress. Posturing over issues is no substitute for a real campaign over an important national issue.

Philip_Thompson

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Innocent_Abroad

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

"Norfolk" is a Tory. He just hasn't noticed...

foxinsoxuk

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Sounds like he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie!

All parties aspire to those things - the question is whether they have any realistic way of achieving them.

Meanwhile Jezza is off tilting at windmills...

OllyT

Find this a pretty tenuous argument and seems like an excuse to urge people to vote against Labour to be honest.

Any move against Corbyn will only happen once there has been a real change of heart/ reality check amongst the membership. We are nowhere near there yet and the May elections won't change that however bad they are. I also don't think they will be as bad as they would have been if the Tories were the united force they were 3 months ago.

Alan Johnson has ruled out standing for the leadership on numerous occasions and is very unlikely to stand in the circumstances you describe Also given that all the big-hitters in Labour are for REMAIN there would be no shortage of speakers and campaigners in the unlikely event your scenario comes about. "Must try harder" i'm afraid for that one TSE

Philip_Thompson

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Sounds like he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie!

All parties aspire to those things - the question is whether they have any realistic way of achieving them.

Meanwhile Jezza is off tilting at windmills...

If you want apple pie you're better off going to a baker than a butcher.

Plato_Says

He seems to be regarded as a Little Islingtonian by everyone outside his immediate clique.

If he can't get traction outside his own postcode in England, no wonder he's just as irrelevant in Scotland.

SouthamObserver said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

Its unreasonable to judge Labour on Scotland given game changed before Corbyn was in charge. But he should be judged on both London and councis.

Corbyn himself identified Scotland as a priority. At the very least, it's clear he is entirely irrelevant there. That was not supposed to be the case.

malcolmg

Alistair said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Blairites didn't lose Scotland for Labour. Labour's behaviour in the IndyRef lost Scotland for Labour.

You can't call a huge chuck of your electorate Nazis and expect them to keep voting for you.

Also being crap and only able to fill their own pockets whilst doing same also helped.

OllyT

ydoethur said:

foxinsoxuk said:

PeterC said:

Nothing changes the fact that in a leadership election Corbyn would stand a very good chance of being reelected. The hard left are not so much interested in winning in the conventional sense, rather they want party conrol. I doubt the Labour moderates have the nous to instigate a coup; even if they did it would likely flop and they would make their predicament yet worse.

Flop or not. This summer is the time to move. Whoever wis the Brexit referendum there are scores to be settled in the Tories, so a good time for Labour to make itself electable again.

The Unions may well no longer be on Corbyns side.

Do you honestly think merely changing the leader to somebody who doesn't look and behave like a refugee from a lunatic asylum will make Labour electable? I think they are going to have to work very hard to repair their credibility.

Last year, I was convinced Labour would retake Cannock because it was impossible to find anyone who would admit to voting Conservative. They lost by a huge margin even while piling up votes on the district council. Now, only one person admits to supporting Labour even in the school staff room, and it leads to people looking away in embarrassment or hurriedly changing the subject. We have to consider this impoverished ex-mining area a safe Tory seat.

It will take Labour ten years to recover from this. If there is a failed coup, add another ten as it will be obvious Corbyn was not a momentary aberration but a grim sign of the real unpleasantness and stupidity of the party.

PS - I think I accidentally marked your comment as off topic. That was an accident (fat finger syndrome) and I am sorry. It certainly is not off- topic.

With the right candidate Labour could turn their fortunes around very quickly, public have very short memories. Problem for me is that I can't see the path that gets Labour that sensible leader in place.

Wanderer

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Sounds like he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie!

All parties aspire to those things - the question is whether they have any realistic way of achieving them.

Meanwhile Jezza is off tilting at windmills...

I wouldn't say that all parties aspire to "protection of cultural identity".

Philip_Thompson

Wanderer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Sounds like he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie!

All parties aspire to those things - the question is whether they have any realistic way of achieving them.

Meanwhile Jezza is off tilting at windmills...

I wouldn't say that all parties aspire to "protection of cultural identity".

I wouldn't say that all parties aspire to "fiscal responsibility" or any of the others either. Labour have never achieved fiscal responsibility, as Thatcher once remarked socialist governments "always run out of other people's money."

You'd think if Labour aspired to fiscal responsibility they'd have achieved it at least once before. Heck they could have even achieved it by accident without trying to.

JWisemann

I see the quality of discourse regarding Corbyn on here has remained as preposterously silly as it was when I last passed through. Well done chaps and chapettes.

foxinsoxuk

Philip_Thompson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Sounds like he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie!

All parties aspire to those things - the question is whether they have any realistic way of achieving them.

Meanwhile Jezza is off tilting at windmills...

If you want apple pie you're better off going to a baker than a butcher.

And a chicken in every pot then! ;-)

Meanwhile the mismanagement of the NHS by Hunt and his cronies continues. These two GP surgeries in inner city Leicester went into administration this week:

http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/city-GP-surgeries-administration/story-28899232-detail/story.html

While Mr Lansley is now hawking out his contacts to help private companies make money out of the NHS:

http://www.consultancy.uk/news/3085/andrew-lansley-takes-on-health-role-at-bain-company

The Tories may pretend to be motherhood and apple pie, but the reality is snouts in the trough.

malcolmg is right about snouts in the trough, it is what destroyed Blairism too. The appeal of Jezza is that (for all his many faults) he is not after personal gain, and that is a novelty in our Parliament.

JWisemann

'Find this a pretty tenuous argument and seems like an excuse to urge people to vote against Labour to be honest.'

Yep, pretty shameless last paragraph. Surprised Mike has allowed space on his site for a Tory activist to say 'vote against Labour in the election'. It's supposed to be a political analysis site, not electoral propaganda. TSE could well do with some tutoring on the writing front, too. Is English his second language?

JosiasJessop

Plato_Says said:

He seems to be regarded as a Little Islingtonian by everyone outside his immediate clique.

If he can't get traction outside his own postcode in England, no wonder he's just as irrelevant in Scotland.

SouthamObserver said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

Its unreasonable to judge Labour on Scotland given game changed before Corbyn was in charge. But he should be judged on both London and councis.

Corbyn himself identified Scotland as a priority. At the very least, it's clear he is entirely irrelevant there. That was not supposed to be the case.

Labour have spent years attacking Cameron for somehow being 'out of touch' because he went to Eton. Not only is that a wrong assumption (people's experiences and views are formed by much more than the school they went to), it also ignored the fact that it is perfectly possible to go to a bog-standard comp and to be utterly 'out of touch'. Corbyn is a classic example.

Corbyn appears much more 'out of touch' with the ordinary person (whatever that is) than Cameron. I wonder if he knows this and does not care, or whether he is oblivious to it.

JWisemann

Philip_Thompson said:

Wanderer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Sounds like he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie!

All parties aspire to those things - the question is whether they have any realistic way of achieving them.

Meanwhile Jezza is off tilting at windmills...

I wouldn't say that all parties aspire to "protection of cultural identity".

I wouldn't say that all parties aspire to "fiscal responsibility" or any of the others either. Labour have never achieved fiscal responsibility, as Thatcher once remarked socialist governments "always run out of other people's money."

You'd think if Labour aspired to fiscal responsibility they'd have achieved it at least once before. Heck they could have even achieved it by accident without trying to.

I think if you actually look at the stats over the years rather than just parroting the deluded self-aggrandising Tory mythos you might realise you are being a silly wally.

CarlottaVance

bigjohnowls said:

the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades

Labour's Scottish problems go back to the eighties and years of banging on about the "democratic deficit" - guess who pinched that tune?

Philip_Thompson

JWisemann said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Wanderer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Sounds like he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie!

All parties aspire to those things - the question is whether they have any realistic way of achieving them.

Meanwhile Jezza is off tilting at windmills...

I wouldn't say that all parties aspire to "protection of cultural identity".

I wouldn't say that all parties aspire to "fiscal responsibility" or any of the others either. Labour have never achieved fiscal responsibility, as Thatcher once remarked socialist governments "always run out of other people's money."

You'd think if Labour aspired to fiscal responsibility they'd have achieved it at least once before. Heck they could have even achieved it by accident without trying to.

I think if you actually look at the stats over the years rather than just parroting the deluded self-aggrandising Tory mythos you might realise you are being a silly wally.

The stats clearly demonstrate I'm telling the truth. Labour governments are fiscally incontinent and every Labour government runs out of other people's money to spend.

Innocent_Abroad

JosiasJessop said:

Plato_Says said:

He seems to be regarded as a Little Islingtonian by everyone outside his immediate clique.

If he can't get traction outside his own postcode in England, no wonder he's just as irrelevant in Scotland.

SouthamObserver said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

Its unreasonable to judge Labour on Scotland given game changed before Corbyn was in charge. But he should be judged on both London and councis.

Corbyn himself identified Scotland as a priority. At the very least, it's clear he is entirely irrelevant there. That was not supposed to be the case.

Labour have spent years attacking Cameron for somehow being 'out of touch' because he went to Eton. Not only is that a wrong assumption (people's experiences and views are formed by much more than the school they went to), it also ignored the fact that it is perfectly possible to go to a bog-standard comp and to be utterly 'out of touch'. Corbyn is a classic example.

Corbyn appears much more 'out of touch' with the ordinary person (whatever that is) than Cameron. I wonder if he knows this and does not care, or whether he is oblivious to it.

JC is a grammar school boy.

I think - and I knew him personally, of course, if a long time ago now - that he knows and doesn't care, possibly because, as you imply, the concept itself is pretty nebulous.

Plato_Says

Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.

Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.

It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.

Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3488709/Women-gay-shortlists-PC-Lib-Dems-bid-end-culture-male-pale-MPs.html#ixzz42gUt8kgA

SquareRoot

JWisemann said:

'Find this a pretty tenuous argument and seems like an excuse to urge people to vote against Labour to be honest.'

Yep, pretty shameless last paragraph. Surprised Mike has allowed space on his site for a Tory activist to say 'vote against Labour in the election'. It's supposed to be a political analysis site, not electoral propaganda. TSE could well do with some tutoring on the writing front, too. Is English his second language?

Hmmm. There's been a fair bit of tenuous stuff from Dom Brind , who is a Labour supporter, but you are so one eyed you cannot understand what balance is.

At least when I was/am one eyed about Gordon Brown, I was/am right all along. The man was bonkers.

Philip_Thompson

JWisemann said:

'Find this a pretty tenuous argument and seems like an excuse to urge people to vote against Labour to be honest.'

Yep, pretty shameless last paragraph. Surprised Mike has allowed space on his site for a Tory activist to say 'vote against Labour in the election'. It's supposed to be a political analysis site, not electoral propaganda. TSE could well do with some tutoring on the writing front, too. Is English his second language?

I'm guessing you've never read a Don Brind article here then?

We get header articles from activists and supporters of each of the three traditional main parties. Only SNP and UKIP of the major parties in the UK (if UKIP and Lib Dems can be classed as such) don't to my knowledge.

foxinsoxuk

Wanderer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Labour need to move on from both Old Labour and New Labour. Both are very stale and neither addresses all the needs of today's electorate: fiscal responsibility, broad-based growth, responsive governance, protection of cultural identity.

Sounds like you're describing a Tory

Sounds like he is in favour of motherhood and apple pie!

All parties aspire to those things - the question is whether they have any realistic way of achieving them.

Meanwhile Jezza is off tilting at windmills...

I wouldn't say that all parties aspire to "protection of cultural identity".

It depends on what you mean by cultural identity. If you mean only a narrow interpretation of Anglo-Saxon England then there might be some truth. If you see "cultural identity" as including protecting working class people from assaults on essential social protections and NHS by international mega corporations that pay little or no tax, then Labour are much more interested in cultural identity.

CarlottaVance

JWisemann said:

I see the quality of discourse regarding Corbyn on here has remained as preposterously silly as it was when I last passed through. Well done chaps and chapettes.

Then why don't you raise it rather than critique other posters?

malcolmg

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.

But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.

I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!

I don't share this pessimism re Labour in Scotland. The SNP bubble will pop eventually, it's in the nature of bubbles.

Sturgeon did a good job this week pretending she 's gonna fight for another indyref ASAFP, but what happens when her fundamentalist new supporters realise that she is bluffing? That she has no intention of calling a vote in the next parliament, for the very good reason that it would be lost?

Plus, she will be in charge of income tax. She won't be able to blame Westminster so easily, even though the Tories have given her as good a fiscal deal as possible, so as to keep her in power, and cripple Scottish Labour.

When the SNP edifice crumbles, which I suspect it will, slowly, from 2016 on, cui bono?

It's not impossible to see SLAB revive. Get rid of Corbyn, and they could revive quite quickly.

LOL, not your best guess Sean

foxinsoxuk

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.

But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.

I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!

I don't share this pessimism re Labour in Scotland. The SNP bubble will pop eventually, it's in the nature of bubbles.

Sturgeon did a good job this week pretending she 's gonna fight for another indyref ASAFP, but what happens when her fundamentalist new supporters realise that she is bluffing? That she has no intention of calling a vote in the next parliament, for the very good reason that it would be lost?

Plus, she will be in charge of income tax. She won't be able to blame Westminster so easily, even though the Tories have given her as good a fiscal deal as possible, so as to keep her in power, and cripple Scottish Labour.

When the SNP edifice crumbles, which I suspect it will, slowly, from 2016 on, cui bono?

It's not impossible to see SLAB revive. Get rid of Corbyn, and they could revive quite quickly.

LOL, not your best guess Sean

I cannot see a way back for Labour in Scotland, while the SNP tacitly endorses the current settlement. PR in Scotland means that it can survive (as can the SLDs) as a minority party, but I cannot see it being a strong party in Westminster again.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, discriminating on the basis of gender or sexual orientation is abhorrent.

Edited extra bit: or ethnicity, of course.

JosiasJessop

Innocent_Abroad said:

JosiasJessop said:

Plato_Says said:

He seems to be regarded as a Little Islingtonian by everyone outside his immediate clique.

If he can't get traction outside his own postcode in England, no wonder he's just as irrelevant in Scotland.

SouthamObserver said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Labour under-performed in 2012. There is no high bar. Corbyn himself identified gaining ground in Scotland as a priority. All May will do is confirm just how much of a disaster Corbyn Labour is electorally. But Corbyn supporters are not bothered. They are largely shielded from the consequences of on-going Tory rule. In fact, many of them are about to get a tax cut from the Chancellor. What's not to like, eh?

Its unreasonable to judge Labour on Scotland given game changed before Corbyn was in charge. But he should be judged on both London and councis.

Corbyn himself identified Scotland as a priority. At the very least, it's clear he is entirely irrelevant there. That was not supposed to be the case.

Labour have spent years attacking Cameron for somehow being 'out of touch' because he went to Eton. Not only is that a wrong assumption (people's experiences and views are formed by much more than the school they went to), it also ignored the fact that it is perfectly possible to go to a bog-standard comp and to be utterly 'out of touch'. Corbyn is a classic example.

Corbyn appears much more 'out of touch' with the ordinary person (whatever that is) than Cameron. I wonder if he knows this and does not care, or whether he is oblivious to it.

JC is a grammar school boy.

I think - and I knew him personally, of course, if a long time ago now - that he knows and doesn't care, possibly because, as you imply, the concept itself is pretty nebulous.

And to be fair to Corbyn, I cannot recall him using the 'out of touch' jibe against Cameron. That was so last parliament.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic: two railway stories:

HS2 is going to CRASH !!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/hs2/12192286/HS2-at-risk-of-derailing-at-top-speeds-report-finds.html

Operating privatised railways a success for the treasury - franchises as a whole returned £700 million to the government:
http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/gb-rail-industry-financial-information/gb-rail-industry-financial-information-2014-15

david_herdson

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.

But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.

I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!

I don't share this pessimism re Labour in Scotland. The SNP bubble will pop eventually, it's in the nature of bubbles.

Sturgeon did a good job this week pretending she 's gonna fight for another indyref ASAFP, but what happens when her fundamentalist new supporters realise that she is bluffing? That she has no intention of calling a vote in the next parliament, for the very good reason that it would be lost?

Plus, she will be in charge of income tax. She won't be able to blame Westminster so easily, even though the Tories have given her as good a fiscal deal as possible, so as to keep her in power, and cripple Scottish Labour.

When the SNP edifice crumbles, which I suspect it will, slowly, from 2016 on, cui bono?

It's not impossible to see SLAB revive. Get rid of Corbyn, and they could revive quite quickly.

LOL, not your best guess Sean

The SNP will fall from grace sooner or later. Opposition always rises eventually to any government as they have to take decisions that are unpopular and cannot always blame someone else. In addition, complacency, a sense of entitlement and dodgy links always become more likely the longer any government stays in power. Similarly, the media gets bored with the same story and will give challengers a fair run at the right time.

Whether from external pressure or internal division, the SNP will eventually fall. Not this side of May though.

MikeK

Good morning all.

The sun is shining and looks like another dry day. Hooray no rain! Spring is in the air and a rather doddery looking Frederick Forsyth is on Marr, supporting Brexit.

daodao

Labour's leadership is irrelevant re the EU referendum, for which the result is almost a foregone conclusion; I expect that Leave will win little more than 40% of the vote.
Unfortunately, the ragbag of political oddities campaigning for leave are no match for those supporting remain, and in case many people in these islands are too frit and will hang on to nurse for fear of something worse, so will do what the pinkoliberal Cameron advises. However, something may turn up - a good result for AfD today may set a cat among the pigeons - or Erdogan may do something that really riles. He is far more of a danger to the UK, as are the criminal Islamic states based in Raqqah and Riyadh, than Putin.

If the result is remain, at least it will have 1 benefit in killing off the political aspirations of the blonde bombshell from New York. Sadly the aspirations of the other blonde bombshells from NY seem likely to be fulfilled; TC would be a much better POTUS than any of the remaining red or blue candidates in that race.

Philip_Thompson

On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?

I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.

I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.

foxinsoxuk

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, discriminating on the basis of gender or sexual orientation is abhorrent.

Edited extra bit: or ethnicity, of course.

The LD fightback will be from areas with a strong presence in local government. I have no problem with selection panels having a diverse pool to choose from, if those diverse candidates have proven themselves in local government via the hard grind. I do not like parachuted candidates in any party.

Incidentally, I never thought there a shortage of diverse sexualities in LD (or indeed any party!) at Westminster. Indeed problems in keeping sexuality under control!

david_herdson

Don't know whether it was quoted on the last thread but DC voted for Rubio in their GOP district convention.

The delegate count is all but irrelevant (10 to Rubio and 9 to Kasich so no change in the Cruz-Trump fight and little in the Trump-the rest fight). What might matter is that it's a second 'state' to give Rubio a majority of delegates.

The Guam and US Virgin Islands look to be sending delegations not committed to any one candidate.

TudorRose

Plato_Says said:

Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.

Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.

It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.

Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3488709/Women-gay-shortlists-PC-Lib-Dems-bid-end-culture-male-pale-MPs.html#ixzz42gUt8kgA

I really don't understand why politicians think I care a jot about their sexual orientation. That is a private matter for them and certainly not one I want to discuss on the doorstep with them. What next? Choosing candidates by when/how they prefer their sex. Anyone for a 'lights out' only shortlist?

chestnut

McDonnell almost called Osborne Gordon Brown on Marr.

Philip_Thompson

Plato_Says said:

Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.

Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.

It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.

Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3488709/Women-gay-shortlists-PC-Lib-Dems-bid-end-culture-male-pale-MPs.html#ixzz42gUt8kgA

Not only that but it's completely unnecessary. Westminster is already the world's gayest Parliament with 32/650 MPs openly LGBT, a higher proportion than any other legislature in the globe: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3080663/Westminster-world-s-gayest-Parliament-Commons-32-openly-gay-lesbian-bisexual-MPs-compared-10-Holland.html

That's 5% of MPs without any form of discrimination, a not at all unreasonable proportion given that I suspect less than 5% of the population is openly LGBT.

blackburn63

Just read an article in the Observer by Alastair Campbell accusing the press of being dishonest re the EU. I do hope he's wheeled out to bat for Remain, I'd love to see the
Tory Remainers cheering for him.

Re the thread header, its a different slant on what I've been saying for ages, Labour simply aren't bothered about the EU, its that apathy that will win it for Leave. Over 500 street stalls yesterday, thousands of campaigners, Leave are indisputably more motivated.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

TudorRose said:

Plato_Says said:

Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.

Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.

It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.

Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3488709/Women-gay-shortlists-PC-Lib-Dems-bid-end-culture-male-pale-MPs.html#ixzz42gUt8kgA

I really don't understand why politicians think I care a jot about their sexual orientation. That is a private matter for them and certainly not one I want to discuss on the doorstep with them. What next? Choosing candidates by when/how they prefer their sex. Anyone for a 'lights out' only shortlist?

A 'Hot Wife' only shortlist would be very interesting.

tlg86

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic: two railway stories:

HS2 is going to CRASH !!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/hs2/12192286/HS2-at-risk-of-derailing-at-top-speeds-report-finds.html

Operating privatised railways a success for the treasury - franchises as a whole returned £700 million to the government:
http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/gb-rail-industry-financial-information/gb-rail-industry-financial-information-2014-15

I suspect the aspiration for trains to run at 250 mph came about to help make the business case for the project. Personally I would pull the plug on it.

Luckyguy1983

Plato_Says said:

Seriously? LBGT only shortlist? BME only? I thought AWS was absurd given it excludes half the population.

Under the proposals, local parties will be able to reserve places on their shortlists for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transexuals and ethnic minorities, including Asians and blacks.

It could lead to three out of four potential Lib Dem candidates in one constituency being of a sexual orientation that is not straight in a bid too boost gay power.

Currently, the law only allows exclusive shortlists for women and disabled people and so at least one of the shortlist places could not be reserved for a specific group

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3488709/Women-gay-shortlists-PC-Lib-Dems-bid-end-culture-male-pale-MPs.html#ixzz42gUt8kgA

I'm illiberal; I'm undemocratic; what am I? Why yes, I'm a Lib Dem policy!

Innocent_Abroad

SeanT said:

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.

But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.

I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!

I don't share this pessimism re Labour in Scotland. The SNP bubble will pop eventually, it's in the nature of bubbles.

Sturgeon did a good job this week pretending she 's gonna fight for another indyref ASAFP, but what happens when her fundamentalist new supporters realise that she is bluffing? That she has no intention of calling a vote in the next parliament, for the very good reason that it would be lost?

Plus, she will be in charge of income tax. She won't be able to blame Westminster so easily, even though the Tories have given her as good a fiscal deal as possible, so as to keep her in power, and cripple Scottish Labour.

When the SNP edifice crumbles, which I suspect it will, slowly, from 2016 on, cui bono?

It's not impossible to see SLAB revive. Get rid of Corbyn, and they could revive quite quickly.

LOL, not your best guess Sean

Fair enough, we differ - but my first point is inarguable. Today, tomorrow, next week or next decade, the SNP will slide from power, and they will become unpopular, for a time. Perhaps very unpopular. It is in the nature of things. The cycle of life. Nothing is forever, and so forth.

So if you believe it is impossible for SLAB to revive, are you telling me you foresee a Tory government in Holyrood? Because SOMEONE has to take over from Sturgeon and the Nats. Who will it be, if not Labour?

It could be a Party, or an alliance of Parties, that doesn't yet exist. What you say, Sean, is true as far as it goes - but, for example, apply your logic to South Africa and the ANC and where do you get to?

tlg86

chestnut said:

McDonnell almost called Osborne Gordon Brown on Marr.

Easy to confuse the two...

Did I hear right that McDonnell would consider higher wages for public sector workers to be 'investment'?

Luckyguy1983

chestnut said:

McDonnell almost called Osborne Gordon Brown on Marr.

Easy mistake to make.

Philip_Thompson

david_herdson said:

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.

But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.

I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!

I don't share this pessimism re Labour in Scotland. The SNP bubble will pop eventually, it's in the nature of bubbles.

Sturgeon did a good job this week pretending she 's gonna fight for another indyref ASAFP, but what happens when her fundamentalist new supporters realise that she is bluffing? That she has no intention of calling a vote in the next parliament, for the very good reason that it would be lost?

Plus, she will be in charge of income tax. She won't be able to blame Westminster so easily, even though the Tories have given her as good a fiscal deal as possible, so as to keep her in power, and cripple Scottish Labour.

When the SNP edifice crumbles, which I suspect it will, slowly, from 2016 on, cui bono?

It's not impossible to see SLAB revive. Get rid of Corbyn, and they could revive quite quickly.

LOL, not your best guess Sean

The SNP will fall from grace sooner or later. Opposition always rises eventually to any government as they have to take decisions that are unpopular and cannot always blame someone else. In addition, complacency, a sense of entitlement and dodgy links always become more likely the longer any government stays in power. Similarly, the media gets bored with the same story and will give challengers a fair run at the right time.

Whether from external pressure or internal division, the SNP will eventually fall. Not this side of May though.

Opposition will arise but likely not for a few years yet. By the point that it does the idea of the opposition going to the Tories will be no more alien than that of it going to Labour.

So I suppose it depends if the SNP fail from the left or the right.

taffys

chestnut said:

McDonnell almost called Osborne Gordon Brown on Marr.

LOL

Innocent_Abroad

Philip_Thompson said:

On the question of devolved income tax, do you think that could help encourage Conservative policies of competitive taxation rates and demonstrate the Laffer curve which we all understand to be real in action?

I'm thinking that if the Tory government decides in a year or two to for example cut the top rate of tax back to 40% from 45% then the SNP would face an awkward choice: keep their tax rates high and see a flight of taxes from Holyrood to Westminster (just like Westminster has received a flight of French taxes) - or continue their practice of being Yellow Tories and cut the tax rate themselves.

I expect they'd opt to be Yellow Tories and cut the tax themselves too.

The Laffer curve does not predict that cutting tax rates increases tax take. If it did, it wouldn't be a curve :

Roger

I'm sure no one is in any doubt that Cameron would resign if 'Leave' won.

"A passionate Leaver" is an interesting description. Even solid Tories who support Cameron are prepared to sacrifice him and their party in order for 'Leave' to win

For the LEAVERS this is visceral and for the REMAINERS it's pragmatic.

Once the Remainers are able to tease out what's behind this crusade I think they'll be in a better position to counter it.

Plato_Says

SkyNews reporting they've found 64 British residents so far with links to IS within the leaked documents.

Innocent_Abroad

Roger said:

I'm sure no one is in any doubt that Cameron would resign if 'Leave' won.

"A passionate Leaver" is an interesting description. Even solid Tories who support Cameron are prepared to sacrifice him and their party in order for 'Leave' to win

For the LEAVERS this is visceral and for the REMAINERS it's pragmatic.

Once the Remainers are able to tease out what's behind this crusade I think they'll be in a better position to counter it.

You know what's behind it, Roger, as well as I do. It's 6 letter word starting with "r".

Moses_

Funny old world where your preferences in bed in the privacy of your bedroom will now give you priority and a seat on the local council.

Mrs Moses grandad got his council seat because he was a highly respected civil engineer and an efficient and effective community organiser of council services.

david_herdson

Innocent_Abroad said:

SeanT said:

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pretty sure the Blairites have a coup in mind.

My MP told me a recovery in Scotland and gaining council seats was what Corbyn shoud be judged on and not London Mayor vote which he felt would happen.

He has no awareness that the Blairites have lost Scotland for decades and is clearly aware that the bar of council gains compared to 2012 is very high bar indeed but hopes members fall for the "we should be making gains" line.

When I told him I voted for Corbyn and would not support a Kendall led party he quickly departed.

Its not going to be any of the three losers last summer.

But Corbyn is digging the grave of the Labour party. He has to be defenestrated soon, preferrably this summer.

I agree Scotland is lost for the forseable, but do not add Wales, Northern England and the Midlands to that list!

I don't share this pessimism re Labour in Scotland. The SNP bubble will pop eventually, it's in the nature of bubbles.

Sturgeon did a good job this week pretending she 's gonna fight for another indyref ASAFP, but what happens when her fundamentalist new supporters realise that she is bluffing? That she has no intention of calling a vote in the next parliament, for the very good reason that it would be lost?

Plus, she will be in charge of income tax. She won't be able to blame Westminster so easily, even though the Tories have given her as good a fiscal deal as possible, so as to keep her in power, and cripple Scottish Labour.

When the SNP edifice crumbles, which I suspect it will, slowly, from 2016 on, cui bono?

It's not impossible to see SLAB revive. Get rid of Corbyn, and they could revive quite quickly.

LOL, not your best guess Sean

Fair enough, we differ - but my first point is inarguable. Today, tomorrow, next week or next decade, the SNP will slide from power, and they will become unpopular, for a time. Perhaps very unpopular. It is in the nature of things. The cycle of life. Nothing is forever, and so forth.

So if you believe it is impossible for SLAB to revive, are you telling me you foresee a Tory government in Holyrood? Because SOMEONE has to take over from Sturgeon and the Nats. Who will it be, if not Labour?

It could be a Party, or an alliance of Parties, that doesn't yet exist. What you say, Sean, is true as far as it goes - but, for example, apply your logic to South Africa and the ANC and where do you get to?

South Africa's majority black electorate has a very different political history and culture; one formed from oppression and a need for unity sufficient to overlook abuses of power. Even so, the ANC will fall there too sooner or later.

marktheowl

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

I can see why donors and MPs would want to replace Corbyn. But then, I can see why I want to open my bedroom door to find Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow-fighting over which one of them gets to sleep with me. That doesn't mean I have a credible plan for making it happen.

Off-topic: good month ahead. Finale of the Six Nations and the first F1 race in a week (and we'll see just how horrendous the new qualifying is, or whether it actually works well). And in two and a half weeks my book comes out. Huzzah!

In order to do it, you need to peel of the 20-30 percent of Corbyn's support who voted for him as a cipher for their own hopes of moving the party to the left and as a protest against a moribund establishment rather than any loyalty to the madder bits of Corbynism. The way to do it would be as follows - quietly square things with the larger unions that they'll stay out of the leadership campaign,in its early stages. Their leaders aren't exactly enamoured with Corbyn and could be told in no uncertain terms that backing him fully in a leadership election would effectively be backing a split and an end to any hope of influencing national politics. A Jarvis figure then challenges, but of course would struggle to win over the membership and would become an instant target for the Corbynistas. With the party about to engage in a murder-suicide and battle-lines drawn, a figure from the left of the party who early on was ostensibly loyal to Corbyn then runs as a compromise candidate - promising to generally keep the anti-austerity focus while dropping the shadiest bits of Corbyn's political outlook. Jarvis or whoever keeps running for a while before dropping out 'for the good of the party'. Unions back unity candidate as the best person to win power as an anti-austerity party and Momentum and co are left fighting the last war against imagined 'Blairites' rather than a candidate who argues that Corbyn's crap even at selling his own brand of politics. Lisa Nandy probably would be best - good on TV, non-nonsense northerner and a woman, she could make the argument that she's far more 'in touch' with the party's real base than a 66 year old Islingtonian.

You have to peel off his soft left supporters, and if the likes of Livingstone, McDonnell and Milne are leading Corbyn's leadership campaign it could get very ugly for them quickly. Just keep getting TV producer contacts to keep inviting Ken on.

CarlottaVance

This'll work:

In a message to the Scottish electorate, she said: “patiently and respectfully, we will seek to convince you that independence really does offer the best future for Scotland

http://www.scotsman.com/news/snp-to-launch-new-drive-for-independence-says-sturgeon-1-4065665#ixzz42m37WZmQ

"Can I interest you in independence?"

"I'm not sure"

"F*ck off back to London then you English c*nt"