'Without a doubt the establishment is against Brexit. Not sure how valuable that is. They have proven to be behind many things that later turn out to be wrong.'
You would have found almost no-one apart from Lord Keynes and a few mavericks who supported leaving the gold standard between the wars, but that was almost certainly the right thing to do.
If you have a look back at the hyperbole that the establishment deployed in support of staying on gold you will find it has a very familiar ring to it - high inflation, collapse in capital flows, Britain's position in the world and creditworthiness hugely devalued, etc. etc.
The establishment specialises in groupthink, hence its name. It is very often incorrect as Jonathan rightly says. Especially on economics.
Your naivety or blind partisan loyalty (you pick which - you're not stupid) is touching.
No, I'm neither naive not partisan. But you are coming across as wilfully blind, unable to accept the obvious, which is that the simplest explanation fits the facts: that most economists (not all, of course, but the overwhelming majority) think Brexit is highly risky for the economy, certainly in the short to medium term, and, depending on the final deal, possibly damaging in the long term. They might not be right, of course, but they are giving their honest opinions.
But by all means add Mark Carney to the ever-lengthening list of Osborne stooges if it makes you feel better. After all, if you believe that all 19 of the other G20 finance ministers are Osborne stooges, I don't suppose adding Mark Carney to the list is a big step.
No, you're the one that's wilfully blind. Your idea that they are giving their 'honest' opinions is touchingly naive.
The Government has lined up full square behind Remain and is putting the full resources of its machine, and its domestic establishment contacts and international network, into backing its position.
That will include all G20 leaders, all the EU member states, the CBI, the big banks, the BoE, the BCC, the TUC, the BBC and any other part of it you care to mention.
Where do you think all the Government effort has been going the last few months? Surely, you're not inept enough to think all that energy went into the negotiation?
Of course not. Cameron never had any intention of supporting a Leave position. The negotiation was merely a charade to keep the Tory backbenches quiet.
The referendum is not about a balanced debate - it is about winning.
'Re the Lord Lawson line about Mark Carney wanting a job at Goldman Sachs, I could be wrong but I suspect that as the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he would have little difficulty.'
He worked there for years already...
Couldn't cut the pace, huh, and decided to go down the easy route of becoming a central banker
They will hear visa free movement for 75m people from Turkey though.
Is Europe scared of the potential for free movement of 66 million from the UK?
Now you are edging off into disingenuous nonsense. What is the difference in the standard of living between the UK and say France, not much, and hence roughly the same number of people live in each others countries. Contrast how many from the UK live in Romania, and how many Romanians live in the UK.
On average income Turkey in 28th, the UK is 5th, traffic is going to be mostly one way.
'Re the Lord Lawson line about Mark Carney wanting a job at Goldman Sachs, I could be wrong but I suspect that as the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he would have little difficulty.'
He worked there for years already...
Couldn't cut the pace, huh, and decided to go down the easy route of becoming a central banker
Do the British people realise that Turkish membership of the EU is being accelerated? That 75 million Turks, and anybody who can get a Turkish passport, will soon be free to roam around Europe? claim benefits? free healthcare?
Again, am I missing something?
Yes - They do not get visa free access to the UK - Furthermore any negotiations to join will take many years and that agreement to join has to be voted unanimously by all 28 and that is not going to happen anytime soon. On last nights thread several leavers accepted that it was not going to happen in the foreseable future
And yet they will get visa free travel starting in June (JUNE!!) with out any such votes. How many other "member-like" perks are they going to be offered on a similar basis ?
If Turkey gets bored with the sweeties in a few months and says, make it 2 years or we open the borders, is anyone going to say no, or will it be quietly waved through ?
Clearly Merkel is having a laugh arranging for a load of Turkish "tourists" to arrive in London in full glare of the cameras two weeks before the referendum.
They will need visas
How do you know. It hasn't been agreed yet, and Cameron fudged when asked.
The deal includes visa-free travel for 90 days for 78 million Turks across Europe from June. The EU hailed the “breakthrough’’ but has called for a further summit at the end of next week to thrash out the details.
"Well I'm afraid he's at an even greater disadvantage in understanding economics: he's an economist."
My view entirely! Although my favourite is:
"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."
or Samuelson, about the predictive power of stockmarket behaviour, who said that "Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions.."
I was with a brilliant investor, who's name everyone will know, the other day. He said:
"We need to listen to the bond market. And with 10 year rates at around 2%, what it's telling us is that we are in a low growth deflationary environment for the next decade."
To which I pointed out that in 1982, the bond market was predicting double digit inflation for the next 30 years.
Leave is conducting the most lamentable campaign imaginable.
Of course there are risks with Brexit. No course of action is free from risk. The question is whether the advantages outweigh the risks, in the short, medium and long-term.
Moaning about the risks of staying in is necessary but not sufficient, not by a long way, simply because those advocating change must present a case, a good case, for change. People are much more likely to choose inertia by default unless both the push and the pull factors are there.
Someone on the Leave side must see this, surely.......
"'Europe' is the result of plans. It is, in fact, a classic utopian project, a monument to the vanity of intellectuals, a programme whose inevitable destiny is failure: only the scale of the final damage done is in doubt." - Margaret Thatcher, writing in "Statescraft" (2002).
'Re the Lord Lawson line about Mark Carney wanting a job at Goldman Sachs, I could be wrong but I suspect that as the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he would have little difficulty.'
He worked there for years already...
Couldn't cut the pace, huh, and decided to go down the easy route of becoming a central banker
Julia Hartley Brewer The EU gave women equal pay? I'm confused. Did it involve time travel? 1970 Equal Pay Act in UK 1973 UK joined EEC https://t.co/9UIchU3rvp
Do the British people realise that Turkish membership of the EU is being accelerated? That 75 million Turks, and anybody who can get a Turkish passport, will soon be free to roam around Europe? claim benefits? free healthcare?
Again, am I missing something?
Yes - They do not get visa free access to the UK - Furthermore any negotiations to join will take many years and that agreement to join has to be voted unanimously by all 28 and that is not going to happen anytime soon. On last nights thread several leavers accepted that it was not going to happen in the foreseable future
And yet they will get visa free travel starting in June (JUNE!!) with out any such votes. How many other "member-like" perks are they going to be offered on a similar basis ?
If Turkey gets bored with the sweeties in a few months and says, make it 2 years or we open the borders, is anyone going to say no, or will it be quietly waved through ?
Clearly Merkel is having a laugh arranging for a load of Turkish "tourists" to arrive in London in full glare of the cameras two weeks before the referendum.
They will need visas
How do you know. It hasn't been agreed yet, and Cameron fudged when asked.
We are not in Schengen and visas will be required. I believe that leave are now the ones using 'Project Fear' particularly as today has been an important day for the remain campaign
Leave is conducting the most lamentable campaign imaginable.
Of course there are risks with Brexit. No course of action is free from risk. The question is whether the advantages outweigh the risks, in the short, medium and long-term.
Moaning about the risks of staying in is necessary but not sufficient, not by a long way, simply because those advocating change must present a case, a good case, for change. People are much more likely to choose inertia by default unless both the push and the pull factors are there.
Someone on the Leave side must see this, surely.......
The Sunil on Sunday wants to reassure all our readers and fans that:
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in FREEDOM!
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in DEMOCRACY!
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY!
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in the POUND!
But most importantly:
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in BRITAIN!
I was speaking to someone recently and asked their opinions of the Euref - they didn't bring it up in conversation themselves, having no real interest.
Initially their response was about how staying in Europe would be better for trade, but they sounded doubtful. But when pushed they thought they would vote Leave as it would deal with immigration which had been too much for too long.
Had a pollster asked them, I think they would only have given the first answer.
Your naivety or blind partisan loyalty (you pick which - you're not stupid) is touching.
No, I'm neit But by all means add Mark Carney to the ever-lengthening list of Osborne stooges if it makes you feel better. After all, if you believe that all 19 of the other G20 finance ministers are Osborne stooges, I don't suppose adding Mark Carney to the list is a big step.
N
What it shows is just how hard it is to beat the establishment. And how easily some are convinced by it.
Nothing more.
Even as a Remainer I agree with you here by and large. However instead of whingeing why doesn't Leave gets its act together? It needs a single powerful message that all its squabbling factions even the miserable Farage can unite behind. If it can't do this then as others have said it doesn't deserve to win.
I think Leave is finished and has virtually no chance. I've donated money and offered to help, and they've ignored me so far.
If that's the case then, rather than waste my time over the next 3 months, the best I can do is at least have some fun calling out the bullshit that will be repeated time and time again until the big day.
And we will deserve EVERYTHING we get if we vote to Remain.
Everything.
Calm down and cheer up. Golly, you're worse than me.
Like you, I suspect REMAIN will win (that's been my position all along) yet this is far from over. Carney's intervention is significant, but not a gamechanger. Remember Osborne and the £ in indyref? We all thought: that's it, this is over. In the end the opposite happened. The emotions kicked in, and swang it towards YES, which only really picked up support in the final weeks. And boy, did they pick up support.
We are four months out. Black swans have been spotted over the horizon.
Besides, if the eurosceptics lose there is a huge consolation prize. We can harness the inevitable emotional backlash (cf Scotland again), take revenge on Cameron and Osborne and BURY THOSE ODIOUS TRAITORS FOREVER, mould their images into a mixture of Heath, Blair and Lord Haw Haw - it won't be hard, that's what they are.
Then install a seriously sceptic leader. Turn the Tories into a political vehicle which will take the UK out of the EU in about 2025-30.
So you reckon the Tories can split and still win the next two or even three elections?
I know I said this before, but Labour seem to be completely and utterly irrelevant and anonymous regarding the whole EUref debate.
You said it before but it bears saying often. Even on eg the DP and such programmes, when they do their fast-cut montage of leavers and remainers there is simply not one Lab person.
I have only ever heard Chuka being interviewed about it.
Your naivety or blind partisan loyalty (you pick which - you're not stupid) is touching.
No, I'm neit But by all means add Mark Carney to the ever-lengthening list of Osborne stooges if it makes you feel better. After all, if you believe that all 19 of the other G20 finance ministers are Osborne stooges, I don't suppose adding Mark Carney to the list is a big step.
N
What it shows is just how hard it is to beat the establishment. And how easily some are convinced by it.
Nothing more.
Even as a Remainer I agree with you here by and large. However instead of whingeing why doesn't Leave gets its act together? It needs a single powerful message that all its squabbling factions even the miserable Farage can unite behind. If it can't do this then as others have said it doesn't deserve to win.
I think Leave is finished and has virtually no chance. I've donated money and offered to help, and they've ignored me so far.
If that's the case then, rather than waste my time over the next 3 months, the best I can do is at least have some fun calling out the bullshit that will be repeated time and time again until the big day.
And we will deserve EVERYTHING we get if we vote to Remain.
Everything.
Calm down and cheer up. Golly, you're worse than me.
Like you, I suspect REMAIN will win (that's been my position all along) yet this is far from over. Carney's intervention is significant, but not a gamechanger. Remember Osborne and the £ in indyref? We all thought: that's it, this is over. In the end the opposite happened. The emotions kicked in, and swang it towards YES, which only really picked up support in the final weeks. And boy, did they pick up support.
We are four months out. Black swans have been spotted over the horizon.
Besides, if the eurosceptics lose there is a huge consolation prize. We can harness the inevitable emotional backlash (cf Scotland again), take revenge on Cameron and Osborne and BURY THOSE ODIOUS TRAITORS FOREVER, mould their images into a mixture of Heath, Blair and Lord Haw Haw - it won't be hard, that's what they are.
Then install a seriously sceptic leader. Turn the Tories into a political vehicle which will take the UK out of the EU in about 2025-30.
So you reckon the Tories can split and still win the next two or even three elections?
1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...
If we don't want migrants coming north and we don't want them to stay in Greece then we are going to have to be prepared to move them to some other place, against their wishes, by force if necessary, while the event is being live-streamed.
There is no nice way to turn away these people.
The EU are merely fiddling whilst Rome burns. Short of armed intervention against the smugglers, there's nothing that they can do to stem the flow. King Cnut had more luck trying to hold back the sea.
We can send the Navy to turn back all boats to the nearest safe North African port. Doing that for 3-6 months will stop the flow from North Africa. We can designate Pakistan a safe country so anyone from there is immediately denied asylum and sent on the first plane back. We can designate Iraq as a safe country and do the same. Even Afghanistan tbh. European countries all have ID cards as well, so they can basically force the issue and demand papers from everyone entering and exiting train stations etc... for a few weeks and get all of the illegals deported back to North Africa.
It needs tough action and hard headedness. There seems to be none of that in Europe at the moment and the one nation that might do it, the UK, has washed its hands of the whole situation by opting out of the migrant quota.
The second any navy attempts to force any boat to turn back, those on board will scuttle it. And then what? Leave the occupants to drown, or rescue them, and take them to an African nation willing to accept refugees? Good luck with that. Which one is willing to take them?
Funny you should mention the RN. Some enterprising MP should ask HMG why they've sent a RFA vessel, rather than a proper warship. And watch the MoD squirm.
Isn't that kind of obvious? This is not a combat situation and there are no foreseeable circumstances where the ship is going to gave to defend itself. It is a good configuration for thus dort if patrolling and offshore rescue and it carries a helicopter as standard.
It seems to me this is pretty much the ideal ship to send in a non combat situation.
Oh God there's another conspiracy theory on its way isn't there? .
In general, Leave are unwise to engage with this sort of thing = unaffiliated people will split the difference between "serious danger" and "all a conspiracy" and conclude "some danger", and the more publicity Leave gives it, the more effective it is. It's like the "You once were photographed smiling at an Islamist" stuff - say "Hey, I didn't know he was an Islamist" and it may be true but it extends the story. Ignore it and it goes away by itself.
Leave is conducting the most lamentable campaign imaginable.
Of course there are risks with Brexit. No course of action is free from risk. The question is whether the advantages outweigh the risks, in the short, medium and long-term.
Moaning about the risks of staying in is necessary but not sufficient, not by a long way, simply because those advocating change must present a case, a good case, for change. People are much more likely to choose inertia by default unless both the push and the pull factors are there.
Someone on the Leave side must see this, surely.......
Would you not concede that when LEAVERS have diametrically opposed views on where we will be re immigration and free trade post BREXIT it is going to be very difficult to improve their campaign, which I agree, is lamentable.
"Well I'm afraid he's at an even greater disadvantage in understanding economics: he's an economist."
My view entirely! Although my favourite is:
"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."
or Samuelson, about the predictive power of stockmarket behaviour, who said that "Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions.."
I was with a brilliant investor, who's name everyone will know, the other day. He said:
"We need to listen to the bond market. And with 10 year rates at around 2%, what it's telling us is that we are in a low growth deflationary environment for the next decade."
To which I pointed out that in 1982, the bond market was predicting double digit inflation for the next 30 years.
As a rule, financial markets tend to do projections rather than predictions.
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
What can we say about this collection of worthies:
The Confederation of British Industry, Tony Blair, Roland Rudd, Richard Branson, Sir Martin Sorrell, Carlos Ghosn (Nissan), Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson, Danny Alexander, Unilever, Kenneth Clarke, Shoichiro Toyoda (Toyota), Nick Clegg, Robin Cook.
They all thought it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro.
I think Remain are at least 80% likely to win at the moment.
Important to note that 80% does not equal 100% likely, but I'm struggling to see any path for Leave to win, nor any signs of improvement around the corner.
Leave is dependent on events to get a route to victory. Given the instabilities in the EU, that's not a completely hopeless position, but it is strategically inept to be so reliant on things going in a particular way. Events might just as easily go in the opposite direction.
I agree. My confidence is not helped by the fact I haven't heard a peep from Vote Leave despite writing to them more than a week ago.
Don't just give up; give them a call. Look up the local events on their website and try to contact the organiser.
"'Europe' is the result of plans. It is, in fact, a classic utopian project, a monument to the vanity of intellectuals, a programme whose inevitable destiny is failure: only the scale of the final damage done is in doubt." - Margaret Thatcher, writing in "Statescraft" (2002).
All 'projects' end in failure, one way or another, eventually.
Do the British people realise that Turkish membership of the EU is being accelerated? That 75 million Turks, and anybody who can get a Turkish passport, will soon be free to roam around Europe? claim benefits? free healthcare?
Again, am I missing something?
Yes - They do not get visa free access to the UK - Furthermore any negotiations to join will take many years and that agreement to join has to be voted unanimously by all 28 and that is not going to happen anytime soon. On last nights thread several leavers accepted that it was not going to happen in the foreseable future
And yet they will get visa free travel starting in June (JUNE!!) with out any such votes. How many other "member-like" perks are they going to be offered on a similar basis ?
If Turkey gets bored with the sweeties in a few months and says, make it 2 years or we open the borders, is anyone going to say no, or will it be quietly waved through ?
Clearly Merkel is having a laugh arranging for a load of Turkish "tourists" to arrive in London in full glare of the cameras two weeks before the referendum.
They will need visas
How do you know. It hasn't been agreed yet, and Cameron fudged when asked.
We are not in Schengen and visas will be required. I believe that leave are now the ones using 'Project Fear' particularly as today has been an important day for the remain campaign
I would like to see the detail as I believe you are mistakenly confusing freedom of movement with Schengen.
Schengen is not about the requirement or otherwise for visas. It is purely about movement without border checks within the Schengen zone. If what is being proposed is the removal of visa requirements then that goes beyond Schengen and becomes a matter resolved under the freedom of movement rules. In that case it is possible that it does include the UK and Ireland.
This is just supposition on my part at the moment as I have not seen the detail of the proposal yet.
"'Europe' is the result of plans. It is, in fact, a classic utopian project, a monument to the vanity of intellectuals, a programme whose inevitable destiny is failure: only the scale of the final damage done is in doubt." - Margaret Thatcher, writing in "Statescraft" (2002).
All 'projects' end in failure, one way or another, eventually.
Everything will crumble into dust eventually. One day the last person to have heard of "The United kingdom of great Britain and northern Ireland" will die.
Although I suspect the UK will handily outlive the EU.
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
What can we say about this collection of worthies:
The Confederation of British Industry, Tony Blair, Roland Rudd, Richard Branson, Sir Martin Sorrell, Carlos Ghosn (Nissan), Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson, Danny Alexander, Unilever, Kenneth Clarke, Shoichiro Toyoda (Toyota), Nick Clegg, Robin Cook.
They all thought it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro.
By your logic my next bet will come in because my last one did.
They will hear visa free movement for 75m people from Turkey though.
Is Europe scared of the potential for free movement of 66 million from the UK?
Now you are edging off into disingenuous nonsense. What is the difference in the standard of living between the UK and say France, not much, and hence roughly the same number of people live in each others countries. Contrast how many from the UK live in Romania, and how many Romanians live in the UK.
On average income Turkey in 28th, the UK is 5th, traffic is going to be mostly one way.
No, you're the one that's wilfully blind. Your idea that they are giving their 'honest' opinions is touchingly naive.
The Government has lined up full square behind Remain and is putting the full resources of its machine, and its domestic establishment contacts and international network, into backing its position.
That will include all G20 leaders, all the EU member states, the CBI, the big banks, the BoE, the BCC, the TUC, the BBC and any other part of it you care to mention.
Where do you think all the Government effort has been going the last few months? Surely, you're not inept enough to think all that energy went into the negotiation?
What it shows is just how hard it is to beat the establishment. And how easily some are convinced by it.
Nothing more.
Sorry, but that simply won't wash. You think the BBC and the TUC are at the beck and call of George Osborne? And the G20? And the big international banks? That's just crazy. You might have a better argument if you claimed that the 'establishment' is naturally risk averse, but saying that all these different, largely completely independent, people and institutions, from many different countries, have somehow been nobbled is out with the fairies.
What's more, you can discount every one of those, and look only at academics and think-tanks, and you'll get the same response. There's a good selection here:
They vary, as economists always do, in their views, but they nearly all seem to be Osborne stooges along with Mark Carney and the G20.
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
Economists know jack shit about jack shit. Look up the 364 who rubbished Thatcher's economic strategy in 1981, or those who did similar to Cameron/Osborne's "Plan A" in 2010.
The BBC and TUC are engaged both through ideological preference and the fact that all the other mainstream political parties support EU membership.
They are as much a part of the Establishment as big business and the banks.
Do the British people realise that Turkish membership of the EU is being accelerated? That 75 million Turks, and anybody who can get a Turkish passport, will soon be free to roam around Europe? claim benefits? free healthcare?
Again, am I missing something?
Yes - They do not get visa free access to the UK - Furthermore any negotiations to join will take many years and that agreement to join has to be voted unanimously by all 28 and that is not going to happen anytime soon. On last nights thread several leavers accepted that it was not going to happen in the foreseable future
And yet they will get visa free travel starting in June (JUNE!!) with out any such votes. How many other "member-like" perks are they going to be offered on a similar basis ?
If Turkey gets bored with the sweeties in a few months and says, make it 2 years or we open the borders, is anyone going to say no, or will it be quietly waved through ?
Clearly Merkel is having a laugh arranging for a load of Turkish "tourists" to arrive in London in full glare of the cameras two weeks before the referendum.
They will need visas
How do you know. It hasn't been agreed yet, and Cameron fudged when asked.
We are not in Schengen and visas will be required. I believe that leave are now the ones using 'Project Fear' particularly as today has been an important day for the remain campaign
I would like to see the detail as I believe you are mistakenly confusing freedom of movement with Schengen.
Schengen is not about the requirement or otherwise for visas. It is purely about movement without border checks within the Schengen zone. If what is being proposed is the removal of visa requirements then that goes beyond Schengen and becomes a matter resolved under the freedom of movement rules. In that case it is possible that it does include the UK and Ireland.
This is just supposition on my part at the moment as I have not seen the detail of the proposal yet.
Mr Big G has no details either, they don't exist. However it is being reported in the international press as visa-free movement through Europe. I admire his confidence given how this sort of thing tends to go in the EU.
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
What can we say about this collection of worthies:
The Confederation of British Industry, Tony Blair, Roland Rudd, Richard Branson, Sir Martin Sorrell, Carlos Ghosn (Nissan), Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson, Danny Alexander, Unilever, Kenneth Clarke, Shoichiro Toyoda (Toyota), Nick Clegg, Robin Cook.
They all thought it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro.
By your logic my next bet will come in because my last one did.
Not the same; the bets are unrelated so one winning or losing does not affect the next.
In the case of the list of worthies we are determining whether we should trust their opinions and judgements, based on past performance. This is relevant.
No, you're the one that's wilfully blind. Your idea that they are giving their 'honest' opinions is touchingly naive.
The Government has lined up full square behind Remain and is putting the full resources of its machine, and its domestic establishment contacts and international network, into backing its position.
That will include all G20 leaders, all the EU member states, the CBI, the big banks, the BoE, the BCC, the TUC, the BBC and any other part of it you care to mention.
Where do you think all the Government effort has been going the last few months? Surely, you're not inept enough to think all that energy went into the negotiation?
What it shows is just how hard it is to beat the establishment. And how easily some are convinced by it.
Nothing more.
Sorry, but that simply won't wash. You think the BBC and the TUC are at the beck and call of George Osborne? And the G20? And the big international banks? That's just crazy. You might have a better argument if you claimed that the 'establishment' is naturally risk averse, but saying that all these different, largely completely independent, people and institutions, from many different countries, have somehow been nobbled is out with the fairies.
What's more, you can discount every one of those, and look only at academics and think-tanks, and you'll get the same response. There's a good selection here:
They vary, as economists always do, in their views, but they nearly all seem to be Osborne stooges along with Mark Carney and the G20.
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
Economists know jack shit about jack shit. Look up the 364 who rubbished Thatcher's economic strategy in 1981, or those who did similar to Cameron/Osborne's "Plan A" in 2010.
The BBC and TUC are engaged both through ideological preference and the fact that all the other mainstream political parties support EU membership.
They are as much a part of the Establishment as big business and the banks.
They are all at Davos. Some pontificating, some doing deals, some broadcasting, some lobbying. But they are all there.
Apparently, the virtue-signalling Yvette Cooper has had a difficult interview with Nick Ferrari on LBC (she said during the Labour leadership contest she'd be willing to take a refugee):
Yvette Cooper: We’ve all got to do our bit to offer sanctuary…
Nick Ferrari: Have you offered sanctuary? Have you taken your refugee in yet?
YC: Well I think we should be offering sanctuary and…
NF: But have you taken yours yet?
YC: Yeah but, I don’t think, this isn’t about, because actually, the people I, we’ve said from the start, look, if people need homes then we should be offering them…
NF: Yes, but have you taken yours in yet?
YC: But, if you listen to what the government said, they said no, they don’t want people to take people into their homes…
NF: Have you taken yours yet, Yvette?
YC: No, and that’s what I’ve said, because the government has said…
NF: So you haven’t taken yours because of what the government has said?
YC: Yeah, the government’s said that’s not what we’re looking for.
NF: (Laughs) So because David Cameron says not to do it, you’re not doing it?
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
What can we say about this collection of worthies:
The Confederation of British Industry, Tony Blair, Roland Rudd, Richard Branson, Sir Martin Sorrell, Carlos Ghosn (Nissan), Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson, Danny Alexander, Unilever, Kenneth Clarke, Shoichiro Toyoda (Toyota), Nick Clegg, Robin Cook.
They all thought it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro.
By your logic my next bet will come in because my last one did.
Erm. Only if your last bet and your current one were on more or less the same thing, with more or less the same people, like say that a collection of plutocrats and pro-EU politicians would be pro the current EU disaster because they were pro the last one in which case you would be on quite safe ground.
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
What can we say about this collection of worthies:
The Confederation of British Industry, Tony Blair, Roland Rudd, Richard Branson, Sir Martin Sorrell, Carlos Ghosn (Nissan), Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson, Danny Alexander, Unilever, Kenneth Clarke, Shoichiro Toyoda (Toyota), Nick Clegg, Robin Cook.
They all thought it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro.
By your logic my next bet will come in because my last one did.
Not the same; the bets are unrelated so one winning or losing does not affect the next.
In the case of the list of worthies we are determining whether we should trust their opinions and judgements, based on past performance. This is relevant.
If I bet at random you'd be right. But I don't. And did they all use the term "disaster"? Care to point me to a link?
Economists know jack shit about jack shit. Look up the 364 who rubbished Thatcher's economic strategy in 1981, or those who did similar to Cameron/Osborne's "Plan A" in 2010.
The BBC and TUC are engaged both through ideological preference and the fact that all the other mainstream political parties support EU membership.
They are as much a part of the Establishment as big business and the banks.
That may be, but, we were discussing whether they were giving their honest opinions. You said the government had put pressure on all these disparate people and institutions from all over the world. You called me naive for saying that was nonsense, but it is nonsense, isn't it?
What's more, as Nick P says, as a matter of political tactics, it is counter-productive for the Leave side to impugn the integrity of Mark Carney and all the others.
They will hear visa free movement for 75m people from Turkey though.
Is Europe scared of the potential for free movement of 66 million from the UK?
Now you are edging off into disingenuous nonsense. What is the difference in the standard of living between the UK and say France, not much, and hence roughly the same number of people live in each others countries. Contrast how many from the UK live in Romania, and how many Romanians live in the UK.
On average income Turkey in 28th, the UK is 5th, traffic is going to be mostly one way.
We don't have all of Somalia here, so it's unlikely we will have all of Turkey wouldn't you say, or are you just being an arse.
Tell you what, why don't you go on the doorstep and tell the voters that "only" 1m Turks have arrived in the last few years without a visa, and without the voters getting a say on the matter, see how well it goes down eh ?
They will hear visa free movement for 75m people from Turkey though.
Is Europe scared of the potential for free movement of 66 million from the UK?
Now you are edging off into disingenuous nonsense. What is the difference in the standard of living between the UK and say France, not much, and hence roughly the same number of people live in each others countries. Contrast how many from the UK live in Romania, and how many Romanians live in the UK.
On average income Turkey in 28th, the UK is 5th, traffic is going to be mostly one way.
We don't have all of Somalia here, so it's unlikely we will have all of Turkey wouldn't you say, or are you just being an arse.
Tell you what, why don't you go on the doorstep and tell the voters that "only" 1m Turks have arrived in the last few years without a visa, and without the voters getting a say on the matter, see how well it goes down eh ?
Why all the wibble about 75 million Turks flooding the country?
Economists know jack shit about jack shit. Look up the 364 who rubbished Thatcher's economic strategy in 1981, or those who did similar to Cameron/Osborne's "Plan A" in 2010.
The BBC and TUC are engaged both through ideological preference and the fact that all the other mainstream political parties support EU membership.
They are as much a part of the Establishment as big business and the banks.
That may be, but, we were discussing whether they were giving their honest opinions. You said the government had put pressure on all these disparate people and institutions from all over the world. You called me naive for saying that was nonsense, but it is nonsense, isn't it?
What's more, as Nick P says, it is counter-productive for the Leave side to impugn the integrity of Mark Carney and all the others.
That isnt how the game is played at all. Its not about leaning on people, its about only ASKING people who can be relied on to give the right answer, its straight out the Humphrey Appleby playbook.
HA: Unthinkable. There is no way any pressure can be placed on a judge. JH: How does one secure a conviction? HA: Find a judge who won't need any pressure. JH: A word with the Lord Chancellor. Find a judge who's hoping to be made a Lord of Appeal. Then leave justice to take her own impartial and majestic course.
"'Europe' is the result of plans. It is, in fact, a classic utopian project, a monument to the vanity of intellectuals, a programme whose inevitable destiny is failure: only the scale of the final damage done is in doubt." - Margaret Thatcher, writing in "Statescraft" (2002).
All 'projects' end in failure, one way or another, eventually.
Everything will crumble into dust eventually. One day the last person to have heard of "The United kingdom of great Britain and northern Ireland" will die.
Although I suspect the UK will handily outlive the EU.
The youngest person to have heard of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland as a current entity would now be pushing 100.
The UK as we know it very nearly entered a swift final phase 18 months ago.
David Cameron was accused by the Outers of stoking Project Fear when he suggested that the border could move back from Calais to Dover if Britain voted Out. But this was not scaremongering; it was common sense. It is extraordinary that the French are still accommodating thousands of migrants who are explicitly trying to come to this country. Philippe Mignonet, the deputy mayor of Calais, says the economic and social cost to his region is huge. “People are angry and I understand their position,” he told me. “We are blamed for a situation from which we suffer. Calais is just the crossing point. England is the magnet.”
The British have a brilliant deal. David Blunkett, the former Labour home secretary, who persuaded the French to put the border on their side of the Channel in 2002 — in return for taking a few hundred refugees from the Sangatte camp — still “can’t believe” that Nicolas Sarkozy, then the president, signed up to the plan.
Economists know jack shit about jack shit. Look up the 364 who rubbished Thatcher's economic strategy in 1981, or those who did similar to Cameron/Osborne's "Plan A" in 2010.
The BBC and TUC are engaged both through ideological preference and the fact that all the other mainstream political parties support EU membership.
They are as much a part of the Establishment as big business and the banks.
That may be, but, we were discussing whether they were giving their honest opinions. You said the government had put pressure on all these disparate people and institutions from all over the world. You called me naive for saying that was nonsense, but it is nonsense, isn't it?
What's more, as Nick P says, as a matter of political tactics, it is counter-productive for the Leave side to impugn the integrity of Mark Carney and all the others.
The Government will be calling in favours and putting on pressure wherever it can. For those it is not in a position to influence, it will ask its political allies to do so - or they will do so of their own accord if their ideological heart is in it.
The mass of vested interest in the status quo and the groupthink is huge. It doesn't take much for the Government to harness it.
Leaving the EU is a counterfactual that most likely won't be tested.
The arguments around it are going to stay theoretical !
So dull.
OTOH We WILL either get a Trump GOP nomination or a brokered convention in the USA.
Britain stays in on 57% of the vote, yawn
Yup, but boy oh boy wouldn't it be fun if we did Leave?
Just to see the likes of Nabavi trying to weasel out of what they said prior to the referendum when it becomes abundantly clear the world hasn't ended and the economic impact is actually very slight, following a Brexit.
If you're a floating voter, it's worth voting Leave just for the popcorn value of seeing that.
How is Goldsmith planning to turn things around? Unless Khan loses massive support from those who like or those who hate Corbyn - and he seems like he is appealing enough to both, or at least not objectionable enough to either - he seems rock solid for an easy win.
Mr. Duckworth, indeed, glad her nonsense got shown up.
Mr. Saddened, if even one or two percent come over, that's a huge number. Nobody's saying everyone will leave Turkey.
We both agree a significant number if permitted will come a perfectly sensible position, without the need, some others have, to wibble about 75 million as if they are all in starting blocks at the gates of the airport. It just makes them look ridiculous.
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
What can we say about this collection of worthies:
The Confederation of British Industry, Tony Blair, Roland Rudd, Richard Branson, Sir Martin Sorrell, Carlos Ghosn (Nissan), Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson, Danny Alexander, Unilever, Kenneth Clarke, Shoichiro Toyoda (Toyota), Nick Clegg, Robin Cook.
They all thought it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro.
By your logic my next bet will come in because my last one did.
Not the same; the bets are unrelated so one winning or losing does not affect the next.
In the case of the list of worthies we are determining whether we should trust their opinions and judgements, based on past performance. This is relevant.
If I bet at random you'd be right. But I don't. And did they all use the term "disaster"? Care to point me to a link?
No, you're the one that's wilfully blind. Your idea that they are giving their 'honest' opinions is touchingly naive.
The Government has lined up full square behind Remain and is putting the full resources of its machine, and its domestic establishment contacts and international network, into backing its position.
That will include all G20 leaders, all the EU member states, the CBI, the big banks, the BoE, the BCC, the TUC, the BBC and any other part of it you care to mention.
Where do you think all the Government effort has been going the last few months? Surely, you're not inept enough to think all that energy went into the negotiation?
What it shows is just how hard it is to beat the establishment. And how easily some are convinced by it.
Nothing more.
Sorry, but that simply won't wash. You think the BBC and the TUC are at the beck and call of George Osborne? And the G20? And the big international banks? That's just crazy. You might have a better argument if you claimed that the 'establishment' is naturally risk averse, but saying that all these different, largely completely independent, people and institutions, from many different countries, have somehow been nobbled is out with the fairies.
What's more, you can discount every one of those, and look only at academics and think-tanks, and you'll get the same response. There's a good selection here:
They vary, as economists always do, in their views, but they nearly all seem to be Osborne stooges along with Mark Carney and the G20.
As I say, they might be wrong. But I'm not asking anyone to stick their hands over their ears - that seems to be entirely the Leave side's reaction. And people have the nerve to accuse me of being partisan!
Economists know jack shit about jack shit. Look up the 364 who rubbished Thatcher's economic strategy in 1981, or those who did similar to Cameron/Osborne's "Plan A" in 2010.
The BBC and TUC are engaged both through ideological preference and the fact that all the other mainstream political parties support EU membership.
They are as much a part of the Establishment as big business and the banks.
They are all at Davos. Some pontificating, some doing deals, some broadcasting, some lobbying. But they are all there.
Just imagine if we had a referendum on leaving the UN..
They will hear visa free movement for 75m people from Turkey though.
Is Europe scared of the potential for free movement of 66 million from the UK?
Now you are edging off into disingenuous nonsense. What is the difference in the standard of living between the UK and say France, not much, and hence roughly the same number of people live in each others countries. Contrast how many from the UK live in Romania, and how many Romanians live in the UK.
On average income Turkey in 28th, the UK is 5th, traffic is going to be mostly one way.
We don't have all of Somalia here, so it's unlikely we will have all of Turkey wouldn't you say, or are you just being an arse.
Tell you what, why don't you go on the doorstep and tell the voters that "only" 1m Turks have arrived in the last few years without a visa, and without the voters getting a say on the matter, see how well it goes down eh ?
Why all the wibble about 75 million Turks flooding the country?
Because no one said anything about all 75m Turks until you pulled it out of your arse to make a straw man.
I know I said this before, but Labour seem to be completely and utterly irrelevant and anonymous regarding the whole EUref debate.
You said it before but it bears saying often. Even on eg the DP and such programmes, when they do their fast-cut montage of leavers and remainers there is simply not one Lab person.
I have only ever heard Chuka being interviewed about it.
You seriously think that Labour gets to decide when they're invited to take part? I wish.
All the programmes are essentially branches of the entertainment industry. They think that "Labour says Remain, as usual" is not entertaining, so they don't invite somebody to say it. In the referendum period, they will need to be more even-handed, but at the moment they don't think they need to bother. The Fun Story is Tory vs Tory, so that's where they're at.
You'll find that when we're wrestling over Trident, it'll be hard for the Tories to get air time, because it'll all be Labour vs Labour, and "Tories say keep it, as usual" won't be very newsworthy.
Re Turkey, getting a visa to enter the UK can be done online for about £25 if I remember correctly. So I can't imagine that (even if Turks were allowed to come to the UK without one) it would make a big difference to numbers.
They will hear visa free movement for 75m people from Turkey though.
Is Europe scared of the potential for free movement of 66 million from the UK?
Now you are edging off into disingenuous nonsense. What is the difference in the standard of living between the UK and say France, not much, and hence roughly the same number of people live in each others countries. Contrast how many from the UK live in Romania, and how many Romanians live in the UK.
On average income Turkey in 28th, the UK is 5th, traffic is going to be mostly one way.
We don't have all of Somalia here, so it's unlikely we will have all of Turkey wouldn't you say, or are you just being an arse.
Tell you what, why don't you go on the doorstep and tell the voters that "only" 1m Turks have arrived in the last few years without a visa, and without the voters getting a say on the matter, see how well it goes down eh ?
Why all the wibble about 75 million Turks flooding the country?
Because no one said anything about all 75m Turks until you pulled it out of your arse to make a straw man.
Re Turkey, getting a visa to enter the UK can be done online for about £25 if I remember correctly. So I can't imagine that (even if Turks were allowed to come to the UK without one) it would make a big difference to numbers.
Hell. I helped someone here apply for a UK visa a few months ago, the application cost almost £1000 plus an extra £600 for the NHS levy.
Re Turkey, getting a visa to enter the UK can be done online for about £25 if I remember correctly. So I can't imagine that (even if Turks were allowed to come to the UK without one) it would make a big difference to numbers.
Hell. I helped someone here apply for a UK visa a few months ago, the application cost almost £1000 plus an extra £600 for the NHS levy.
They will hear visa free movement for 75m people from Turkey though.
Is Europe scared of the potential for free movement of 66 million from the UK?
Now you are edging off into disingenuous nonsense. What is the difference in the standard of living between the UK and say France, not much, and hence roughly the same number of people live in each others countries. Contrast how many from the UK live in Romania, and how many Romanians live in the UK.
On average income Turkey in 28th, the UK is 5th, traffic is going to be mostly one way.
We don't have all of Somalia here, so it's unlikely we will have all of Turkey wouldn't you say, or are you just being an arse.
Tell you what, why don't you go on the doorstep and tell the voters that "only" 1m Turks have arrived in the last few years without a visa, and without the voters getting a say on the matter, see how well it goes down eh ?
Why all the wibble about 75 million Turks flooding the country?
Because no one said anything about all 75m Turks until you pulled it out of your arse to make a straw man.
Actually, it's in a Leave.EU poster
In which case he should be challenging Farage about it not me, I am not even a kipper, and certainly not supporter of Farage.
"Allies of Jeremy Corbyn plan to set up a pro-EU group to act as a more leftwing counterweight to Labour’s official In campaign — exposing a split within the party over Europe."
"Project Hope is an attempt to set out a distinctly leftwing platform for supporting membership of the EU... While it will start life as a Labour-only campaign, it hopes to eventually get support from other left-leaning groups such as the Green party and the Scottish National party in the final weeks of the referendum. "
It takes a special kind of genius to organise a split in a party when both sides are on the same side of the argument.
Re Turkey, getting a visa to enter the UK can be done online for about £25 if I remember correctly. So I can't imagine that (even if Turks were allowed to come to the UK without one) it would make a big difference to numbers.
Hell. I helped someone here apply for a UK visa a few months ago, the application cost almost £1000 plus an extra £600 for the NHS levy.
"Allies of Jeremy Corbyn plan to set up a pro-EU group to act as a more leftwing counterweight to Labour’s official In campaign — exposing a split within the party over Europe."
"Project Hope is an attempt to set out a distinctly leftwing platform for supporting membership of the EU... While it will start life as a Labour-only campaign, it hopes to eventually get support from other left-leaning groups such as the Green party and the Scottish National party in the final weeks of the referendum. "
It takes a special kind of genius to organise a split in a party when both sides are on the same side of the argument.
I hope it gets its act together in time to compete for official status of the Remain campaign with BSE before the April deadline.
FYI, from Al Jazeera: in exchange for readmitting refugees from Greece to Turkey, Brussels is expected to grant Turkish citizens the right to travel to the EU's Schengen zone without a visa by end of June 2016.
Aren't all the Turks going to want to go to Germany?
Not all, but a large contingent one would imagine; there has been a large Turkish community in Germany for decades, so I can see the attraction for doing so.
@taffys - between Priti and Nicky "The Stare" Morgan, there really is no contest, is there?
Morgan will fall in the first round of voting.
Morgan is so PC she would make Blair blush, can't see her getting much support. Being completely housetrained at Education in a fortnight isnt a good image for a leader either.
Re Turkey, getting a visa to enter the UK can be done online for about £25 if I remember correctly. So I can't imagine that (even if Turks were allowed to come to the UK without one) it would make a big difference to numbers.
Hell. I helped someone here apply for a UK visa a few months ago, the application cost almost £1000 plus an extra £600 for the NHS levy.
FYI, from Al Jazeera: in exchange for readmitting refugees from Greece to Turkey, Brussels is expected to grant Turkish citizens the right to travel to the EU's Schengen zone without a visa by end of June 2016.
We will have to see the detail I guess. It certainly going to give them an interesting conversation with Cameron after all his recent pro-Turkey flag waving and talking up their EU membership.
"So let me try and understand Mr Cameron, you support our country joining the EU, where our citizens will have freedom of movement across your borders, but you don't want our tourists to have visa free travel to the UK"
"Well, that's not really the question is it, the real question is......"
Re Turkey, getting a visa to enter the UK can be done online for about £25 if I remember correctly. So I can't imagine that (even if Turks were allowed to come to the UK without one) it would make a big difference to numbers.
Hell. I helped someone here apply for a UK visa a few months ago, the application cost almost £1000 plus an extra £600 for the NHS levy.
For a tourist visa?
3 year tier work visa.
Tourist visa is £85
For Turkish citizens?
I said from here, thankfully I am not in Turkey, although the jails here have a similar reputation or so I am told
But yes, that is a standard tourist visa from anywhere that doesn't get free entry.
Re Turkey, getting a visa to enter the UK can be done online for about £25 if I remember correctly. So I can't imagine that (even if Turks were allowed to come to the UK without one) it would make a big difference to numbers.
Currently the same for us. 20€ online gets a tourist visa to Turkey at the click of a mouse.
FYI, from Al Jazeera: in exchange for readmitting refugees from Greece to Turkey, Brussels is expected to grant Turkish citizens the right to travel to the EU's Schengen zone without a visa by end of June 2016.
We will have to see the detail I guess. It certainly going to give them an interesting conversation with Cameron after all his recent pro-Turkey flag waving and talking up their EU membership.
"So let me try and understand Mr Cameron, you support our country joining the EU, where our citizens will have freedom of movement across your borders, but you don't want our tourists to have visa free travel to the UK"
"Well, that's not really the question is it, the real question is......"
But even if they did get visa free, it would just be saving them a free tens of pounds. It's not like they are getting work permits.
Re Turkey, getting a visa to enter the UK can be done online for about £25 if I remember correctly. So I can't imagine that (even if Turks were allowed to come to the UK without one) it would make a big difference to numbers.
Currently the same for us. 20€ online gets a tourist visa to Turkey at the click of a mouse.
Ouch, so we can travel there for 20 euros, and we charge them 85 quid for the other way.
Visa fees have gone up by a LOT in the last year or so, around about doubled in most classes from what I have seen.
Leave is conducting the most lamentable campaign imaginable.
Of course there are risks with Brexit. No course of action is free from risk. The question is whether the advantages outweigh the risks, in the short, medium and long-term.
Moaning about the risks of staying in is necessary but not sufficient, not by a long way, simply because those advocating change must present a case, a good case, for change. People are much more likely to choose inertia by default unless both the push and the pull factors are there.
Someone on the Leave side must see this, surely.......
Would you not concede that when LEAVERS have diametrically opposed views on where we will be re immigration and free trade post BREXIT it is going to be very difficult to improve their campaign, which I agree, is lamentable.
I agree. The campaign needs taking by the scruff of the neck and being given a good shake. But this should have been done months, if not years ago.
Just as the Remain case is making no positive case for staying in the EU - and will therefore do nothing about resolving the long-standing issues between Britain and the EU - the Leave campaign, if it wins will find itself having to reconcile two broad camps: those who want to eave because of immigration and those who have other reasons for leaving and are not primarily motivated by immigration. It will take the wisdom of Solomon to do this and I don't see one on the horizon
But I've heard *nothing* back and the strategic air war that Leave are fighting is fucking awful.
The (only) thing that has impressed me about the GO/Leave.EU mob recently is they have been putting in the shoe leather. Seem to have stalls up in towns all around the country every week. Farage has been giving his pitch to quite well attended events all over the country almost non-stop. They are not everyone's cup of tea, and arguably are preaching to the converted, but they are at least getting off their arses and canvassing. Vote Leave appear to be hoping that moral superiority and lucky events will see them through.
Just been following the #MichganPrimary tweets and Sanders might not win the vote today but he's certainly got the most fired up social media activists!
Also, virtually no noise at all from any of the GOP stables.
Comments
You would have found almost no-one apart from Lord Keynes and a few mavericks who supported leaving the gold standard between the wars, but that was almost certainly the right thing to do.
If you have a look back at the hyperbole that the establishment deployed in support of staying on gold you will find it has a very familiar ring to it - high inflation, collapse in capital flows, Britain's position in the world and creditworthiness hugely devalued, etc. etc.
The establishment specialises in groupthink, hence its name. It is very often incorrect as Jonathan rightly says. Especially on economics.
The referendum is not about a balanced debate - it is about winning.
On average income Turkey in 28th, the UK is 5th, traffic is going to be mostly one way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/europe-migrant-crisis-eu-caves-in-to-turkeys-demands/news-story/8b518f1dde5ff8ddbb0600008ff74e0d
"We need to listen to the bond market. And with 10 year rates at around 2%, what it's telling us is that we are in a low growth deflationary environment for the next decade."
To which I pointed out that in 1982, the bond market was predicting double digit inflation for the next 30 years.
Of course there are risks with Brexit. No course of action is free from risk. The question is whether the advantages outweigh the risks, in the short, medium and long-term.
Moaning about the risks of staying in is necessary but not sufficient, not by a long way, simply because those advocating change must present a case, a good case, for change. People are much more likely to choose inertia by default unless both the push and the pull factors are there.
Someone on the Leave side must see this, surely.......
- Margaret Thatcher, writing in "Statescraft" (2002).
The EU gave women equal pay? I'm confused. Did it involve time travel?
1970 Equal Pay Act in UK
1973 UK joined EEC https://t.co/9UIchU3rvp
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/welcome-to-luvvie-island-a-haven-for-virtue-signalling-celebrities/
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in FREEDOM!
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in DEMOCRACY!
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY!
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in the POUND!
But most importantly:
We'll be voting LEAVE because we believe in BRITAIN!
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
"I'm Sunil Prasannan, and I endorse this message"
Initially their response was about how staying in Europe would be better for trade, but they sounded doubtful. But when pushed they thought they would vote Leave as it would deal with immigration which had been too much for too long.
Had a pollster asked them, I think they would only have given the first answer.
I have only ever heard Chuka being interviewed about it.
It seems to me this is pretty much the ideal ship to send in a non combat situation.
The Confederation of British Industry, Tony Blair, Roland Rudd, Richard Branson, Sir Martin Sorrell, Carlos Ghosn (Nissan), Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson, Danny Alexander, Unilever, Kenneth Clarke, Shoichiro Toyoda (Toyota), Nick Clegg, Robin Cook.
They all thought it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro.
Schengen is not about the requirement or otherwise for visas. It is purely about movement without border checks within the Schengen zone. If what is being proposed is the removal of visa requirements then that goes beyond Schengen and becomes a matter resolved under the freedom of movement rules. In that case it is possible that it does include the UK and Ireland.
This is just supposition on my part at the moment as I have not seen the detail of the proposal yet.
Although I suspect the UK will handily outlive the EU.
The BBC and TUC are engaged both through ideological preference and the fact that all the other mainstream political parties support EU membership.
They are as much a part of the Establishment as big business and the banks.
Not the same; the bets are unrelated so one winning or losing does not affect the next.
In the case of the list of worthies we are determining whether we should trust their opinions and judgements, based on past performance. This is relevant.
Yvette Cooper: We’ve all got to do our bit to offer sanctuary…
Nick Ferrari: Have you offered sanctuary? Have you taken your refugee in yet?
YC: Well I think we should be offering sanctuary and…
NF: But have you taken yours yet?
YC: Yeah but, I don’t think, this isn’t about, because actually, the people I, we’ve said from the start, look, if people need homes then we should be offering them…
NF: Yes, but have you taken yours in yet?
YC: But, if you listen to what the government said, they said no, they don’t want people to take people into their homes…
NF: Have you taken yours yet, Yvette?
YC: No, and that’s what I’ve said, because the government has said…
NF: So you haven’t taken yours because of what the government has said?
YC: Yeah, the government’s said that’s not what we’re looking for.
NF: (Laughs) So because David Cameron says not to do it, you’re not doing it?
YC: Yeah, but, the government…
http://order-order.com/2016/03/08/yvettes-refugee-car-crash-pledge-to-foster-syrian-unfulfilled/
Comment is, perhaps, unnecessary.
The arguments around it are going to stay theoretical !
So dull.
OTOH We WILL either get a Trump GOP nomination or a brokered convention in the USA.
Britain stays in on 57% of the vote, yawn
What's more, as Nick P says, as a matter of political tactics, it is counter-productive for the Leave side to impugn the integrity of Mark Carney and all the others.
We don't have all of Somalia here, so it's unlikely we will have all of Turkey wouldn't you say, or are you just being an arse.
Tell you what, why don't you go on the doorstep and tell the voters that "only" 1m Turks have arrived in the last few years without a visa, and without the voters getting a say on the matter, see how well it goes down eh ?
https://yougov.co.uk/yougov-8545/
I'd make a distinction between micro economics and macro. I think there is some generally excellent work in the micro space.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/707256083254001664
Mr. Saddened, if even one or two percent come over, that's a huge number. Nobody's saying everyone will leave Turkey.
HA: Unthinkable. There is no way any pressure can be placed on a judge.
JH: How does one secure a conviction?
HA: Find a judge who won't need any pressure.
JH: A word with the Lord Chancellor. Find a judge who's hoping to be made a Lord of Appeal.
Then leave justice to take her own impartial and majestic course.
The UK as we know it very nearly entered a swift final phase 18 months ago.
The mass of vested interest in the status quo and the groupthink is huge. It doesn't take much for the Government to harness it.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-job-approval
Just to see the likes of Nabavi trying to weasel out of what they said prior to the referendum when it becomes abundantly clear the world hasn't ended and the economic impact is actually very slight, following a Brexit.
If you're a floating voter, it's worth voting Leave just for the popcorn value of seeing that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTv7UoK8oJY
All the programmes are essentially branches of the entertainment industry. They think that "Labour says Remain, as usual" is not entertaining, so they don't invite somebody to say it. In the referendum period, they will need to be more even-handed, but at the moment they don't think they need to bother. The Fun Story is Tory vs Tory, so that's where they're at.
You'll find that when we're wrestling over Trident, it'll be hard for the Tories to get air time, because it'll all be Labour vs Labour, and "Tories say keep it, as usual" won't be very newsworthy.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/25cc8984-e547-11e5-a09b-1f8b0d268c39.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz42JK0W0nZ
"Allies of Jeremy Corbyn plan to set up a pro-EU group to act as a more leftwing counterweight to Labour’s official In campaign — exposing a split within the party over Europe."
"Project Hope is an attempt to set out a distinctly leftwing platform for supporting membership of the EU... While it will start life as a Labour-only campaign, it hopes to eventually get support from other left-leaning groups such as the Green party and the Scottish National party in the final weeks of the referendum. "
It takes a special kind of genius to organise a split in a party when both sides are on the same side of the argument.
Morgan will fall in the first round of voting.
I think you might reasonably define the 'great and good' coalition the government has assembled for this referendum the 'Davos Consensus'.
It's not a conspiracy, these people all do think more or less the same way. But they are not necessarily right.
Tourist visa is £85
in
exchange for readmitting refugees from Greece to Turkey, Brussels is expected to grant Turkish citizens the right to travel to the EU's Schengen zone without a visa by end of June 2016.
Germany had the most by a large margin
Has he ever thought of having a strategy, perhaps? Instead of sitting around like an extra in Waiting for Godot?
"So let me try and understand Mr Cameron, you support our country joining the EU, where our citizens will have freedom of movement across your borders, but you don't want our tourists to have visa free travel to the UK"
"Well, that's not really the question is it, the real question is......"
But I've heard *nothing* back and the strategic air war that Leave are fighting is fucking awful.
But yes, that is a standard tourist visa from anywhere that doesn't get free entry.
https://www.gov.uk/standard-visitor-visa
Visa fees have gone up by a LOT in the last year or so, around about doubled in most classes from what I have seen.
Just as the Remain case is making no positive case for staying in the EU - and will therefore do nothing about resolving the long-standing issues between Britain and the EU - the Leave campaign, if it wins will find itself having to reconcile two broad camps: those who want to eave because of immigration and those who have other reasons for leaving and are not primarily motivated by immigration. It will take the wisdom of Solomon to do this and I don't see one on the horizon
Also, virtually no noise at all from any of the GOP stables.