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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium London Mayoral boost for those who took the 33/1 PB Sadiq Khan tip
Before second preferences were allocated it was Goldsmith 26% to Khan’s 31%. But the LAB contender did far better on second preferences with the top line of the poll having Zac on 45% to Sadiq 55%.
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#GameChanger
http://thevirtualcommunity.yuku.com/topic/1239/Yes-Minister#.Vt7NXfmLTIU
JosiasJessop said:
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It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.
If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.
But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.
Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..
Frenchman #1: J'en ai marre.
Frenchman #2: Moi aussi.
#StopMeIfYouThinkYou'veHeardThisOneBefore
+6.7 Sadiq
+6.4 Zac
No great insight, just listened and paid attention to the wise tipping advice of @HenryGManson Manson and @Tissue_Price.
Zac probably wins methinks.
Leavers and Scottish nationalists deny any likeness, but the parallels between the two movements increasingly insist on being noticed. Both sides spent so much time and energy securing a referendum that none was left over to hone their arguments when it came. They bonded among themselves during those years in a way that cloaked material disagreements on basic questions of detail. And they are so sure of the rightness and historic inevitability of their missions that practical quibbles seem tawdry and beside the point to them.....
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d6694a2-e211-11e5-8d9b-e88a2a889797.html#ixzz42JjCij9j
Disagree with all of that. But I think you're safe on the last clause.
Looking at the religious make up of London per the 2011 census, I don't think it's mathematically possible for Khan to be elected with more Muslim votes than Christian votes unless the turnout slumps to about 30% [rough calculation only] so if he is elected to pursue an agenda of relentless positive discrimination for Muslims then it's presumably because it's widely supported as a good idea. Tbf, I'm not sure it's what he's really proposing.
We could have the wrong Khan in the Mayoral race. Not a Londoner though obviously.
Well colour me shocked.
Mr Jessop,
If the EU were to say to Turkey ... "We accept that you are bearing extra costs. We are happy to recommend that our populations support you through charitable gifts. Would you be satisfied with that?"
What would be Erdogan's response?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
In the EU case it's the status quo that needs high turnout. It doesn't have anything remotely equivalent to the emotionally powerful tug that Yes had in Scotland.
Furthermore, Turkey's policy profile under Erdogan means that it's moving away from the acquis in several key areas rather than towards compatibility.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3481882/Women-warned-not-night-Swedish-town-multiple-sex-attacks-foreigners.html
Once you could call it a mistake, two you can call it stupidity, but more than that it looks dodgy. Which it is exactly what has begun to happen. More of this drip drip effect and Khan is just going to end up being the candidate for terrorists. Do Londoners want a mayor, if informed of a major terrorist attack, we're not sure whether he is on the side of the Londoners or the terrorists. Aligning himself with people who think that the Lee Rigby murder was a conspiracy and people who worked for Rahman has made it a question when it shouldn't be.
And for all the talk of a "doughnut strategy", in a proportional election North Korean majorities for Labour in inner London are actually just as much help to them as votes in the swing outer London boroughs.
What odds on Khan doing well with the unregistered and lazy electorate aged under 25?
1) Would the 'charitable gifts' go anywhere near helping us with the humanitarian and social costs of over two million refugees, which 'we' (i.e. Turkey) have been helping for five years whilst the EU looked the other way?
2) Would such a scheme ease the pressures we are feeling, reduce numbers, or at least help stem the flow?
3) Why should Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan (and you have to remember those countries as well) bear all the burden of what is a humanitarian tragedy? It is not just a monetary burden.
4) The EU governments seem to be winners from the deal you outlined. What do we get, aside from money (which I guess, as 'charitable donations', would be from individual not from states) ?
It's a good question though. I wonder if it was asked.
For the best factual information about what's happening out there, look at the German English-language online news sources.
Alex Wickham
A Trotskyist who defended the 9/11 hijackers claims he has won an appeal to be reinstated to the Labour Party: https://t.co/6HaY3uLfNH
Who is going to be doing the removing, do we know?
ABC News/Wash Post
Trump 34 Cruz 25 Rubio 18 Kasich 13
That's a question I have from what I've read on the deal. It seems to mention Syrians, but what about the other nationalities, and especially economic migrants rather than genuine refugees from warzones?
What happens to them? If they're not mentioned, it may drive a coach and horses through the deal.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/22/yes-he-khan-sadiqs-a-great-33-1-bet-for-london-mayor/
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/09/04/inenglish/1346759075_903935.html (from 2012)
http://www.gatwickobviously.com/?gclid=CO_m9sWkscsCFQPgGwodYgIIRQ
if all else fails lets go through the social media accounts of all his old employees.
It's too predictable and depressing....
Interestingly though this technique is well known to Lynton Crosby I have it on good authority it was something that Coulson wouldn't countenance when he was working for Cameron
"not understanding the mind-cast of the 9/11 hijackers, refusing to examine the causes that drove them on and still drives the likes of ISIS means you can never tackle the problems"
This bit, not so much (the words are ok, the sentiment behind it is not):
"the entirely understandable motivation for 9/11 and suicide bombers"
This bit, not at all:
"One is progressive, no matter how distorted its actions are, and must never be ‘condemned’"
What happens to them? If they're not mentioned, it may drive a coach and horses through the deal.
Still relatively poor for Trump, which ties in with the weekend's results. That said, he's still nine points clear and with solid leads in today's states.
And also this, from Ms Cyclefree:
There is no nice way to turn away these people.
What's different about the two referenda is that lots of Scots have a very strong commitment to being part of the UK, for non-economic reasons. I think that the proportion of people who are similarly committed to being part of the EU is a good deal smaller.
But there's a difference between being racist personally, and being willing to run (or turn a blind eye while your supporters run) a racist campaign.
As I've asked before, was Thatcher a "paedo sympathiser" for associating with Jimmy Savile, years before she knew (or could've been expected to know) about what he did?
I think they will both hurt, but the racism stuff plays to the Labour gallery, issues over terrorism play across the board.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babar_Ahmad
As they did against Ken.
Convicted footballer's sister launches 'Justice for Johnson' campaign
Facebook picture urges people to change their profile picture to support Adam Johnson after child sex offence convictions
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/08/footballer-adam-johnson-sister-justice-for-johnson-facebook?CMP=fb_a-football_b-gdnfootball
It needs tough action and hard headedness. There seems to be none of that in Europe at the moment and the one nation that might do it, the UK, has washed its hands of the whole situation by opting out of the migrant quota.
London's 2nd preferences go 2/1 to @SadiqKhan , finds @OpiniumResearch in @EveningStandard. https://t.co/iWseQrSEw6
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_waves
'HE probably isn't racist, just as Phil Woolas wasn't racist in his personal beliefs (he had Muslim friends, etcetc.)
But there's a difference between being racist personally, and being willing to run (or turn a blind eye while your supporters run) a racist campaign.'
So nobody should mention anything about Khan's pals as one way or another they must be racist ?