Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium London Mayoral boost for those who took the 33/1 PB

SystemSystem Posts: 12,679
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium London Mayoral boost for those who took the 33/1 PB Sadiq Khan tip

Before second preferences were allocated it was Goldsmith 26% to Khan’s 31%. But the LAB contender did far better on second preferences with the top line of the poll having Zac on 45% to Sadiq 55%.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,750
    We could do with a YouGov to see a trend
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    55:45 is a very clear margin in a two horse race. This poll should close down the subject.
  • JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Zac is a feeble candidate and so the polling will probably get worse as that is exposed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    AlastairMeeks said:

    55:45 is a very clear margin in a two horse race. This poll should close down the subject.

    Just like the sindyref?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,750
    This poll was carried out before Morrissey announced his intentions.

    #GameChanger
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Trevor Phillips is probably a good shout. Someone who is respected on the left and does, from time to time, speak truth to power. I would vote for him if he supported Heathrow.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Would a right wing Muslim be more acceptable?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This poll was carried out before Morrissey announced his intentions.

    #GameChanger

    #PanicOnTheStreetsOfLondon
  • isamisam Posts: 42,603
    Polruan said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Would a right wing Muslim be more acceptable?
    Yes much more acceptable
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Hansard will record Fabricant's intervention as a cry of 'Shame'.

    http://thevirtualcommunity.yuku.com/topic/1239/Yes-Minister#.Vt7NXfmLTIU
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    If Khan wins, the London Mayoral office and London assembly might end up going the same way as the GLC. And good riddance too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,533
    Lets hope the country doesn't lose its collective marbles and thinks terrorist sympathizers should also run the country.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The field this year looks very weak in comparison with previous years. It's astonishing that we haven't had a wild card to rally behind, the more so given the febrile nature of politics at present.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.

    If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.

    But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.

    Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    isam said:

    Polruan said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Would a right wing Muslim be more acceptable?
    Yes much more acceptable
    Sorry, I think I missed the word "why" off the beginning of that question.... seriously, what's the interplay you see between (primarily) economic policy attitudes and faith?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This poll was carried out before Morrissey announced his intentions.

    #GameChanger

    #PanicOnTheStreetsOfLondon
    That joke isn't funny anymore.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Tissue_Price said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This poll was carried out before Morrissey announced his intentions.

    #GameChanger

    #PanicOnTheStreetsOfLondon
    That joke isn't funny anymore.
    It was the first of the gags to die.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ditto
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Trevor Phillips is probably a good shout. Someone who is respected on the left and does, from time to time, speak truth to power. I would vote for him if he supported Heathrow.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    AlastairMeeks said:

    55:45 is a very clear margin in a two horse race. This poll should close down the subject.

    That's a bit premature - the poll shows a large number of people haven't made their minds up, and also a lot of people saying they'll vote for minor parties and not use the second pref, which suggests engagement is not very high yet.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    [Interior, dingy French bar. The Smiths are on the jukebox. Two middle aged Frenchmen nurse their Pastis.]

    Frenchman #1: J'en ai marre.
    Frenchman #2: Moi aussi.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,603
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This poll was carried out before Morrissey announced his intentions.

    #GameChanger

    #PanicOnTheStreetsOfLondon
    I cracked that gag yesterday

    #StopMeIfYouThinkYou'veHeardThisOneBefore
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    edited March 2016
    Leaving this one at

    +6.7 Sadiq
    +6.4 Zac

    No great insight, just listened and paid attention to the wise tipping advice of @HenryGManson Manson and @Tissue_Price.

    Zac probably wins methinks.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2016
    Was the poll conducted before or after we learnt more about one of Khan's close parliamentary adviser's ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    This is an online poll. Am I right in thinking that there haven't been any telephone polls on the mayoral contest yet?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Janan Ganesh:

    Leavers and Scottish nationalists deny any likeness, but the parallels between the two movements increasingly insist on being noticed. Both sides spent so much time and energy securing a referendum that none was left over to hone their arguments when it came. They bonded among themselves during those years in a way that cloaked material disagreements on basic questions of detail. And they are so sure of the rightness and historic inevitability of their missions that practical quibbles seem tawdry and beside the point to them.....

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d6694a2-e211-11e5-8d9b-e88a2a889797.html#ixzz42JjCij9j
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,023
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.

    If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.

    But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.

    Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..

    And my reply:
    Disagree with all of that. But I think you're safe on the last clause.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/celebrity/morrissey-too-cheerful-to-be-our-mayor-say-londoners-20160308106931
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    This is an online poll. Am I right in thinking that there haven't been any telephone polls on the mayoral contest yet?

    Lynton's probably been calling people up asking them if they want to vote for terrorist sympathiser Sadiq Khan, or enviromental campaigner and London Champion Zac Goldsmith.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    isam said:

    Polruan said:

    isam said:

    Polruan said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Would a right wing Muslim be more acceptable?
    Yes much more acceptable
    Sorry, I think I missed the word "why" off the beginning of that question.... seriously, what's the interplay you see between (primarily) economic policy attitudes and faith?
    Because left wingers are more concerned with political correctness, dividing people up into different groups, labels, positive discrimination etc etc... throw into the mix that the candidate is Muslim, and will be elected on Muslim votes and I think it is a recipe for disaster

    It's good that we'd never catch you dividing people into groups and labelling them at least... well, unless you're a fellow left winger I guess.

    Looking at the religious make up of London per the 2011 census, I don't think it's mathematically possible for Khan to be elected with more Muslim votes than Christian votes unless the turnout slumps to about 30% [rough calculation only] so if he is elected to pursue an agenda of relentless positive discrimination for Muslims then it's presumably because it's widely supported as a good idea. Tbf, I'm not sure it's what he's really proposing.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2016
    CarlottaVance said:

    Janan Ganesh:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d6694a2-e211-11e5-8d9b-e88a2a889797.html#ixzz42JjCij9j

    It is, as usual, a good piece from Janan. However if we are going to draw parallels with the Scottish campaign then one ought to note that the campaign went well for Yes, despite the continued obfuscation over currency & finance. Leave is not as well positioned as Yes, but it starts a fair bit closer to 50-50.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,750
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    This is an online poll. Am I right in thinking that there haven't been any telephone polls on the mayoral contest yet?

    Lynton's probably been calling people up asking them if they want to vote for terrorist sympathiser Sadiq Khan, or enviromental campaigner and London Champion Zac Goldsmith.
    I think Sir Lynton has been pushing the Khan is Corbyn's man in London line more.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.

    If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.

    But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.

    Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..

    They are close to it. Hopefully someone will keep vetoing their membership whilst the other countries come to their senses, but if Visa restrictions are lifted, they already get state aid etc., it seems they can be quite far down the road without being made full members.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    This is an online poll. Am I right in thinking that there haven't been any telephone polls on the mayoral contest yet?

    Lynton's probably been calling people up asking them if they want to vote for terrorist sympathiser Sadiq Khan, or enviromental campaigner and London Champion Zac Goldsmith.
    I don't think we're allowed to accuse anyone of push polling here.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    edited March 2016
    isam said:

    Polruan said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Would a right wing Muslim be more acceptable?
    Yes much more acceptable
    I like Saira Khan: https://www.google.co.uk/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=mtTeVpbZEuvU8ge16ZOIBw&gws_rd=ssl#q=saira+khan

    We could have the wrong Khan in the Mayoral race. Not a Londoner though obviously.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2016
    So a plurality of people agree that calling Khan a "terrorist sympathiser" just because he has brown skin and happened to once be in the vicinity of some people who posted some stuff on social media years after the event, is coded racism.

    Well colour me shocked.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This feels like MIRAS http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12185806/EU-leaders-meet-to-discuss-migrant-crisis-latest.html
    And from June, 77 million Turks will be able to access to the EU’s Schengen zone for 90 days without a visa under a significant relaxation of the rules. That is four months earlier than envisaged in talks last year.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    FPT,

    Mr Jessop,

    If the EU were to say to Turkey ... "We accept that you are bearing extra costs. We are happy to recommend that our populations support you through charitable gifts. Would you be satisfied with that?"

    What would be Erdogan's response?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,023
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.

    If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.

    But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.

    Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..

    They are close to it. Hopefully someone will keep vetoing their membership whilst the other countries come to their senses, but if Visa restrictions are lifted, they already get state aid etc., it seems they can be quite far down the road without being made full members.
    No, they are not 'close to it'. Aside from having to get every EU state to agree to their membership, they're not very far along on meeting the requirements, with 1 out of 35 chapters closed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Tissue_Price said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Janan Ganesh:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d6694a2-e211-11e5-8d9b-e88a2a889797.html#ixzz42JjCij9j

    It is, as usual, a good piece from Janan. However if we are going to draw parallels with the Scottish campaign then one ought to note that the campaign went well for Yes, despite the continued obfuscation over currency & finance. Leave is not as well positioned as Yes, but it starts a fair bit closer to 50-50.
    We should also keep in mind that in Scotland the change position (because of the demographic profile of its support) needed a high turnout and succeeded in getting that.

    In the EU case it's the status quo that needs high turnout. It doesn't have anything remotely equivalent to the emotionally powerful tug that Yes had in Scotland.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    This is an online poll. Am I right in thinking that there haven't been any telephone polls on the mayoral contest yet?

    In 2012 the only London Mayoral phone poll was the most wrong.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,533
    Plato_Says said:

    This feels like MIRAS http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12185806/EU-leaders-meet-to-discuss-migrant-crisis-latest.html

    And from June, 77 million Turks will be able to access to the EU’s Schengen zone for 90 days without a visa under a significant relaxation of the rules. That is four months earlier than envisaged in talks last year.
    Trying to solve one problem, but causing another....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    JosiasJessop said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.

    If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.

    But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.

    Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..

    They are close to it. Hopefully someone will keep vetoing their membership whilst the other countries come to their senses, but if Visa restrictions are lifted, they already get state aid etc., it seems they can be quite far down the road without being made full members.
    No, they are not 'close to it'. Aside from having to get every EU state to agree to their membership, they're not very far along on meeting the requirements, with 1 out of 35 chapters closed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
    Precisely. And that is more than ten years after accession negotiations opened and fifteen years after they formally became a candidate for full membership.

    Furthermore, Turkey's policy profile under Erdogan means that it's moving away from the acquis in several key areas rather than towards compatibility.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And the latter takes a couple of decades to recover.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Plato_Says said:

    This feels like MIRAS http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12185806/EU-leaders-meet-to-discuss-migrant-crisis-latest.html

    And from June, 77 million Turks will be able to access to the EU’s Schengen zone for 90 days without a visa under a significant relaxation of the rules. That is four months earlier than envisaged in talks last year.
    Trying to solve one problem, but causing another....

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,533
    Women are warned not to go out alone at night in Swedish town after multiple sex attacks by ‘foreigners’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3481882/Women-warned-not-night-Swedish-town-multiple-sex-attacks-foreigners.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    Danny565 said:

    So a plurality of people agree that calling Khan a "terrorist sympathiser" just because he has brown skin and happened to once be in the vicinity of some people who posted some stuff on social media years after the event, is coded racism.

    Well colour me shocked.

    And had one on his speechwriting staff. And lobbied for one who then got convicted of funding terrorists. And has two people on his team that worked for known Islamist Lutfur Rahman.

    Once you could call it a mistake, two you can call it stupidity, but more than that it looks dodgy. Which it is exactly what has begun to happen. More of this drip drip effect and Khan is just going to end up being the candidate for terrorists. Do Londoners want a mayor, if informed of a major terrorist attack, we're not sure whether he is on the side of the Londoners or the terrorists. Aligning himself with people who think that the Lee Rigby murder was a conspiracy and people who worked for Rahman has made it a question when it shouldn't be.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2016
    My guess is that this will all come down to turnout which will be significantly lower than when Boris fought Ken.
    Whilst this seems likely on the face of it since Khan and Goldsmith are such weak candidates, I do think there's a serious chance of the Tories' campaign driving Muslim turnout much higher than it would usually be for a midterm election.

    And for all the talk of a "doughnut strategy", in a proportional election North Korean majorities for Labour in inner London are actually just as much help to them as votes in the swing outer London boroughs.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    david_herdson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.

    If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.

    But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.

    Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..

    They are close to it. Hopefully someone will keep vetoing their membership whilst the other countries come to their senses, but if Visa restrictions are lifted, they already get state aid etc., it seems they can be quite far down the road without being made full members.
    No, they are not 'close to it'. Aside from having to get every EU state to agree to their membership, they're not very far along on meeting the requirements, with 1 out of 35 chapters closed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
    Precisely. And that is more than ten years after accession negotiations opened and fifteen years after they formally became a candidate for full membership.

    Furthermore, Turkey's policy profile under Erdogan means that it's moving away from the acquis in several key areas rather than towards compatibility.
    Regardless of how close they are to full membership, their 'special case' status means they get various 'membership like' benefits already and could be in line for more.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    AlastairMeeks said:

    55:45 is a very clear margin in a two horse race. This poll should close down the subject.

    Given the usual overstatement of the left it would imply they are probably 48-52, but let's see the data tables.

    What odds on Khan doing well with the unregistered and lazy electorate aged under 25?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016
    MaxPB said:

    And had one on his speechwriting staff. And lobbied for one who then got convicted of funding terrorists. And has two people on his team that worked for known Islamist Lutfur Rahman.

    Once you could call it a mistake, two you can call it stupidity, but more than that it looks dodgy. Which it is exactly what has begun to happen.

    I must say it does rather look that way. I was initially very sceptical of the criticisms made of Sadiq Khan on these issues, but he does seem very accident-prone in his choice of acquaintances and advisers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,533
    edited March 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    So a plurality of people agree that calling Khan a "terrorist sympathiser" just because he has brown skin and happened to once be in the vicinity of some people who posted some stuff on social media years after the event, is coded racism.

    Well colour me shocked.

    And had one on his speechwriting staff. And lobbied for one who then got convicted of funding terrorists. And has two people on his team that worked for known Islamist Lutfur Rahman.

    Once you could call it a mistake, two you can call it stupidity, but more than that it looks dodgy. Which it is exactly what has begun to happen. More of this drip drip effect and Khan is just going to end up being the candidate for terrorists. Do Londoners want a mayor, if informed of a major terrorist attack, we're not sure whether he is on the side of the Londoners or the terrorists. Aligning himself with people who think that the Lee Rigby murder was a conspiracy and people who worked for Rahman has made it a question when it shouldn't be.
    And that only this weeks revelations....but it seems a significant proportion don't care. Imagine if Zac had similar history with say Britian First or EDL nutjobs...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,023
    CD13 said:

    FPT,

    Mr Jessop,

    If the EU were to say to Turkey ... "We accept that you are bearing extra costs. We are happy to recommend that our populations support you through charitable gifts. Would you be satisfied with that?"

    What would be Erdogan's response?

    I don't know. Putting myself into Turkey's shoes, though I can think of several questions that may be raised:

    1) Would the 'charitable gifts' go anywhere near helping us with the humanitarian and social costs of over two million refugees, which 'we' (i.e. Turkey) have been helping for five years whilst the EU looked the other way?

    2) Would such a scheme ease the pressures we are feeling, reduce numbers, or at least help stem the flow?

    3) Why should Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan (and you have to remember those countries as well) bear all the burden of what is a humanitarian tragedy? It is not just a monetary burden.

    4) The EU governments seem to be winners from the deal you outlined. What do we get, aside from money (which I guess, as 'charitable donations', would be from individual not from states) ?

    It's a good question though. I wonder if it was asked.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    david_herdson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.

    If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.

    But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.

    Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..

    They are close to it. Hopefully someone will keep vetoing their membership whilst the other countries come to their senses, but if Visa restrictions are lifted, they already get state aid etc., it seems they can be quite far down the road without being made full members.
    No, they are not 'close to it'. Aside from having to get every EU state to agree to their membership, they're not very far along on meeting the requirements, with 1 out of 35 chapters closed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
    Precisely. And that is more than ten years after accession negotiations opened and fifteen years after they formally became a candidate for full membership.

    Furthermore, Turkey's policy profile under Erdogan means that it's moving away from the acquis in several key areas rather than towards compatibility.
    Regardless of how close they are to full membership, their 'special case' status means they get various 'membership like' benefits already and could be in line for more.
    Keeping a happy pro-Western Turkey has been a key strategic objective for 70 years (far longer in the case of Britain with rare exceptions). No good reason to change that now, particularly given the alternatives. It is a vital buffer state but I'd rather it buffered with an aspirant eye to the northwest than the northeast or south.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeSmithson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    This is an online poll. Am I right in thinking that there haven't been any telephone polls on the mayoral contest yet?

    In 2012 the only London Mayoral phone poll was the most wrong.

    Having a sample of one is not reliable for evidence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,750
    Opinium have confirmed to me it was an online poll.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    Tissue_Price said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Janan Ganesh:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d6694a2-e211-11e5-8d9b-e88a2a889797.html#ixzz42JjCij9j

    It is, as usual, a good piece from Janan. However if we are going to draw parallels with the Scottish campaign then one ought to note that the campaign went well for Yes, despite the continued obfuscation over currency & finance. Leave is not as well positioned as Yes, but it starts a fair bit closer to 50-50.
    I can't read the piece because of the FT paywall. However having a mild Brexiteer relative (who also is fond of the PB blog!) living in my household I know from him how fervent these people are. Their ground campaign seems to be more organised than their desultory leadership campaign so far and that is a danger to Remain that shouldn't be underestimated.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    So a plurality of people agree that calling Khan a "terrorist sympathiser" just because he has brown skin and happened to once be in the vicinity of some people who posted some stuff on social media years after the event, is coded racism.

    Well colour me shocked.

    And had one on his speechwriting staff. And lobbied for one who then got convicted of funding terrorists. And has two people on his team that worked for known Islamist Lutfur Rahman.

    Once you could call it a mistake, two you can call it stupidity, but more than that it looks dodgy. Which it is exactly what has begun to happen. More of this drip drip effect and Khan is just going to end up being the candidate for terrorists. Do Londoners want a mayor, if informed of a major terrorist attack, we're not sure whether he is on the side of the Londoners or the terrorists. Aligning himself with people who think that the Lee Rigby murder was a conspiracy and people who worked for Rahman has made it a question when it shouldn't be.
    And that only this weeks revelations....but it seems a significant proportion don't care. Imagine if Zac had similar history with say Britian First or EDL nutjobs...
    That proportion was always going to vote Labour anyway. How it goes down with floating voters and the Labour-inclined disengaged is more important. Ultimately, it doesn't matter whether you win 51-49 or 80-20, the prize is the same.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,060
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JasonGroves1: Tory MP Michael Fabricant apologises for 'unseemly' shout of 'bollocks' as fellow Tory Jonathan Djanogly rhapsodised about the EU

    Fabricant was just translating 'Djanogly' into English
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Roger said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JasonGroves1: Tory MP Michael Fabricant apologises for 'unseemly' shout of 'bollocks' as fellow Tory Jonathan Djanogly rhapsodised about the EU

    Fabricant was just translating 'Djanogly' into English
    Presumably Jonathan is the son of Harry Djanogly, who endowed the excellent Djanogly Hall in Nottingham.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,389
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Trevor Phillips is probably a good shout. Someone who is respected on the left and does, from time to time, speak truth to power. I would vote for him if he supported Heathrow.
    I'd love to vote for Zac, but his opposition to Heathrow expansion counts him out. I'll probably abstain.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    david_herdson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    So a plurality of people agree that calling Khan a "terrorist sympathiser" just because he has brown skin and happened to once be in the vicinity of some people who posted some stuff on social media years after the event, is coded racism.

    Well colour me shocked.

    And had one on his speechwriting staff. And lobbied for one who then got convicted of funding terrorists. And has two people on his team that worked for known Islamist Lutfur Rahman.

    Once you could call it a mistake, two you can call it stupidity, but more than that it looks dodgy. Which it is exactly what has begun to happen. More of this drip drip effect and Khan is just going to end up being the candidate for terrorists. Do Londoners want a mayor, if informed of a major terrorist attack, we're not sure whether he is on the side of the Londoners or the terrorists. Aligning himself with people who think that the Lee Rigby murder was a conspiracy and people who worked for Rahman has made it a question when it shouldn't be.
    And that only this weeks revelations....but it seems a significant proportion don't care. Imagine if Zac had similar history with say Britian First or EDL nutjobs...
    That proportion was always going to vote Labour anyway. How it goes down with floating voters and the Labour-inclined disengaged is more important. Ultimately, it doesn't matter whether you win 51-49 or 80-20, the prize is the same.
    I think it is with floating voters that the terror connections hurt him the most. The leftist/PC brigade are already all supporting him anyway which takes him up to 35-40% in London. He needs to be able to grab at least 10% of the "centre" to become mayor and it's clear that on the first question of whether he is divisive the terror links are going to hurt him. People who think Zac (of all people) is racist are already voting Labour.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/
    ‎1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    4) Try this thought experiment. Go back twenty five years and ponder what most sensible people would have said on being told that by now anyone from Romania, Bulgaria or (eventually) Turkey could come here. People would be astonished. No British government would allow it, surely? That’s a recipe for cultural tension and pressure on public services. Yet piece by piece that is what happened, and the polls show voters outside London are not at all happy about it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Trevor Phillips is probably a good shout. Someone who is respected on the left and does, from time to time, speak truth to power. I would vote for him if he supported Heathrow.
    I'd love to vote for Zac, but his opposition to Heathrow expansion counts him out. I'll probably abstain.
    Unfortunately there is no pro-Heathrow candidate and not voting for Zac is almost as bad as voting for Khan.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    It's hardly a bribe though, is it? Turkey has spent billions over the last five years housing up to two million refugees, mainly from Syria and Iraq. Some estimates have this cost at around 8 billion dollars, on top of which are the other costs of the conflict to the country. It is also an ongoing cost to them, both fiscally and socially.

    If we were in that situation, we'd be pleading the international community for help as well. And we're a much richer economy.

    But we need to be doing more to tackle the people and organisations behind the people smuggling. Even if they lead to significant personages in surrounding countries.

    Its a bribe and Turkey have been working to get just that. They have consistently let people go through, do nothing to stop the people smugglers and are actively helping some dodgy stuff and people in Syria for their own ends. A rum bunch to say the least, one can only hope they never get close to membership of the EU..

    I would be concerned that the Turkish government will take the EU money but the border guards will still accept bribes to let people in from Syria and that the people smugglers will continue to bribe the police in Turkey to turn a blind eye.
    For the best factual information about what's happening out there, look at the German English-language online news sources.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    ‎1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    4) Try this thought experiment. Go back twenty five years and ponder what most sensible people would have said on being told that by now anyone from Romania, Bulgaria or (eventually) Turkey could come here. People would be astonished. No British government would allow it, surely? That’s a recipe for cultural tension and pressure on public services. Yet piece by piece that is what happened, and the polls show voters outside London are not at all happy about it.
    Well that, and it does nothing to deter the north African and Pakistani chancers who are making their way via the Turkey route.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    Umm

    Alex Wickham
    A Trotskyist who defended the 9/11 hijackers claims he has won an appeal to be reinstated to the Labour Party: https://t.co/6HaY3uLfNH
    “it is the justified outrage of the oppressed as opposed to the outrage of the oppressor, one violence is that of the slave and the other is that of the slave-owner. One is progressive, no matter how distorted its actions are, and must never be ‘condemned’… That is the entirely understandable motivation for 9/11 and suicide bombers… not understanding the mind-cast of the 9/11 hijackers, refusing to examine the causes that drove them on and still drives the likes of ISIS means you can never tackle the problems as serious Marxists”
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force'

    Who is going to be doing the removing, do we know?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016
    2016 Republican Presidential Nomination
    ABC News/Wash Post

    Trump 34 Cruz 25 Rubio 18 Kasich 13
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,023
    MaxPB said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    ‎1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    4) Try this thought experiment. Go back twenty five years and ponder what most sensible people would have said on being told that by now anyone from Romania, Bulgaria or (eventually) Turkey could come here. People would be astonished. No British government would allow it, surely? That’s a recipe for cultural tension and pressure on public services. Yet piece by piece that is what happened, and the polls show voters outside London are not at all happy about it.
    Well that, and it does nothing to deter the north African and Pakistani chancers who are making their way via the Turkey route.

    That's a question I have from what I've read on the deal. It seems to mention Syrians, but what about the other nationalities, and especially economic migrants rather than genuine refugees from warzones?

    What happens to them? If they're not mentioned, it may drive a coach and horses through the deal.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The post from March 2013 when Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq at 33/1

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/22/yes-he-khan-sadiqs-a-great-33-1-bet-for-london-mayor/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,023
    runnymede said:

    'as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force'

    Who is going to be doing the removing, do we know?

    Perhaps the same sort of people who do it in Spain:
    http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/09/04/inenglish/1346759075_903935.html (from 2012)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited March 2016
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Trevor Phillips is probably a good shout. Someone who is respected on the left and does, from time to time, speak truth to power. I would vote for him if he supported Heathrow.
    I'd love to vote for Zac, but his opposition to Heathrow expansion counts him out. I'll probably abstain.
    Unfortunately there is no pro-Heathrow candidate and not voting for Zac is almost as bad as voting for Khan.
    Both Zac and Sadiq are anti-LHR3 and opposed to Uber. Both very wrong positions in my view.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    MikeSmithson said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Trevor Phillips is probably a good shout. Someone who is respected on the left and does, from time to time, speak truth to power. I would vote for him if he supported Heathrow.
    I'd love to vote for Zac, but his opposition to Heathrow expansion counts him out. I'll probably abstain.
    Unfortunately there is no pro-Heathrow candidate and not voting for Zac is almost as bad as voting for Khan.
    Both Zac and Sadiq are anti-LHR3 and opposed to Uber. Both very wrong positions in my view.

    I thought a Bedford resident would be more partial to Gatwick?

    http://www.gatwickobviously.com/?gclid=CO_m9sWkscsCFQPgGwodYgIIRQ
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    Plato_Says said:

    Umm

    Alex Wickham
    A Trotskyist who defended the 9/11 hijackers claims he has won an appeal to be reinstated to the Labour Party: https://t.co/6HaY3uLfNH

    The "New Politics"...

  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,060
    edited March 2016
    Big mistake of Carney to get on the wrong side of the reactionary forces of the right. I imagine the Mail are searching for ex girlfriends as I type.... The same is now happening to Khan. If you can't get the man himself get his family or friends.

    if all else fails lets go through the social media accounts of all his old employees.

    It's too predictable and depressing....

    Interestingly though this technique is well known to Lynton Crosby I have it on good authority it was something that Coulson wouldn't countenance when he was working for Cameron
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    MikeSmithson said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    A disaster looms for London

    How can it be good for a city that is already heavily segregated to have a Mayor that appeals only to a certain group and is abhorrent to so many others

    The worst thing for London would be a left wing muslim or a right wing "islamaphobe"

    Probably the best thing would be a non white Conservative.. not Winston Mckenzie

    Trevor Phillips maybe

    Trevor Phillips is probably a good shout. Someone who is respected on the left and does, from time to time, speak truth to power. I would vote for him if he supported Heathrow.
    I'd love to vote for Zac, but his opposition to Heathrow expansion counts him out. I'll probably abstain.
    Unfortunately there is no pro-Heathrow candidate and not voting for Zac is almost as bad as voting for Khan.
    Both Zac and Sadiq are anti-LHR3 and opposed to Uber. Both very wrong positions in my view.

    I don't think Zac is opposed to Uber, at least I've never heard him speak out against it, just that the drives need to be regulated better to protect public safety. The whole situation about Heathrow and the mayoral candidates is beyond lamentable.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Plato_Says said:

    Umm

    Alex Wickham
    A Trotskyist who defended the 9/11 hijackers claims he has won an appeal to be reinstated to the Labour Party: https://t.co/6HaY3uLfNH

    “it is the justified outrage of the oppressed as opposed to the outrage of the oppressor, one violence is that of the slave and the other is that of the slave-owner. One is progressive, no matter how distorted its actions are, and must never be ‘condemned’… That is the entirely understandable motivation for 9/11 and suicide bombers… not understanding the mind-cast of the 9/11 hijackers, refusing to examine the causes that drove them on and still drives the likes of ISIS means you can never tackle the problems as serious Marxists”
    This bit, I agree with:

    "not understanding the mind-cast of the 9/11 hijackers, refusing to examine the causes that drove them on and still drives the likes of ISIS means you can never tackle the problems"

    This bit, not so much (the words are ok, the sentiment behind it is not):

    "the entirely understandable motivation for 9/11 and suicide bombers"

    This bit, not at all:

    "One is progressive, no matter how distorted its actions are, and must never be ‘condemned’"
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sky reports the deal will fail on Unicef Rights of the Child and humanitarian grounds too.
    JosiasJessop said:

    MaxPB said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    ‎1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    4) Try this thought experiment. Go back twenty five years and ponder what most sensible people would have said on being told that by now anyone from Romania, Bulgaria or (eventually) Turkey could come here. People would be astonished. No British government would allow it, surely? That’s a recipe for cultural tension and pressure on public services. Yet piece by piece that is what happened, and the polls show voters outside London are not at all happy about it.
    Well that, and it does nothing to deter the north African and Pakistani chancers who are making their way via the Turkey route.
    That's a question I have from what I've read on the deal. It seems to mention Syrians, but what about the other nationalities, and especially economic migrants rather than genuine refugees from warzones?

    What happens to them? If they're not mentioned, it may drive a coach and horses through the deal.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    2016 Republican Presidential Nomination
    ABC News/Wash Post

    Trump 34 Cruz 25 Rubio 18 Kasich 13

    First ABC poll for a month so difficult to compare. Only a sample of 400 so MoE is +/- 5%.

    Still relatively poor for Trump, which ties in with the weekend's results. That said, he's still nine points clear and with solid leads in today's states.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016
    MikeSmithson said:

    The post from March 2013 when Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq at 33/1

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/22/yes-he-khan-sadiqs-a-great-33-1-bet-for-london-mayor/

    Interesting that there was some discussion about whether Sadiq Khan would want the job, rather than serve as a cabinet minister in a Miliband government.

    And also this, from Ms Cyclefree:
    Cyclefree said:

    Labour might want to make sure there are no skeletons in Sadiq Khan's cupboard before putting him forward. He was the MP whose calls with Babar Ahmed (charged by the US with terrorism offences) were bugged and questions were raised about whether he had been transparent to the Commons about the nature and length of his relationship.

    Also what's his expenses record like?

    Given some of Livingstone's dubious friendships/alliances, I would have thought that Labour would want to ensure that any future candidate does not face similar criticisms.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    He also nominated Corbyn even if he didn't vote for him
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    The post from March 2013 when Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq at 33/1

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/22/yes-he-khan-sadiqs-a-great-33-1-bet-for-london-mayor/

    Interesting that there was some discussion about whether Sadiq Khan would want the job, rather than serve as a cabinet ministers in a Miliband government.

    And also this, from Ms Cyclefree:
    Cyclefree said:

    Labour might want to make sure there are no skeletons in Sadiq Khan's cupboard before putting him forward. He was the MP whose calls with Babar Ahmed (charged by the US with terrorism offences) were bugged and questions were raised about whether he had been transparent to the Commons about the nature and length of his relationship.

    Also what's his expenses record like?

    Given some of Livingstone's dubious friendships/alliances, I would have thought that Labour would want to ensure that any future candidate does not face similar criticisms.

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited March 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    If we don't want migrants coming north and we don't want them to stay in Greece then we are going to have to be prepared to move them to some other place, against their wishes, by force if necessary, while the event is being live-streamed.

    There is no nice way to turn away these people.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,532
    CarlottaVance said:

    Janan Ganesh:

    Leavers and Scottish nationalists deny any likeness, but the parallels between the two movements increasingly insist on being noticed. Both sides spent so much time and energy securing a referendum that none was left over to hone their arguments when it came. They bonded among themselves during those years in a way that cloaked material disagreements on basic questions of detail. And they are so sure of the rightness and historic inevitability of their missions that practical quibbles seem tawdry and beside the point to them.....

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d6694a2-e211-11e5-8d9b-e88a2a889797.html#ixzz42JjCij9j

    What Leave campaigners and SNP activists have in common is that their concerns are not primarily economic. They're about national identity and self-government. People don't spend years campaigning for the SNP, (or for Leave) in order to be £30 a month better off.

    What's different about the two referenda is that lots of Scots have a very strong commitment to being part of the UK, for non-economic reasons. I think that the proportion of people who are similarly committed to being part of the EU is a good deal smaller.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MaxPB said:

    People who think Zac (of all people) is racist are already voting Labour.

    HE probably isn't racist, just as Phil Woolas wasn't racist in his personal beliefs (he had Muslim friends, etcetc.)

    But there's a difference between being racist personally, and being willing to run (or turn a blind eye while your supporters run) a racist campaign.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who think Zac (of all people) is racist are already voting Labour.

    HE probably isn't racist, just as Phil Woolas wasn't racist in his personal beliefs (he had Muslim friends, etcetc.)

    But there's a difference between being racist personally, and being willing to run (or turn a blind eye while your supporters run) a racist campaign.
    Indeed, just as there is a difference between being Islamist personally etc. etc.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Wanderer said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    If we don't want migrants coming north and we don't want them to stay in Greece then we are going to have to be prepared to move them to some other place, against their wishes, by force if necessary, while the event is being live-streamed.

    There is no nice way to turn away these people.
    The EU are merely fiddling whilst Rome burns. Short of armed intervention against the smugglers, there's nothing that they can do to stem the flow. King Cnut had more luck trying to hold back the sea.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tissue_Price said:

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who think Zac (of all people) is racist are already voting Labour.

    HE probably isn't racist, just as Phil Woolas wasn't racist in his personal beliefs (he had Muslim friends, etcetc.)

    But there's a difference between being racist personally, and being willing to run (or turn a blind eye while your supporters run) a racist campaign.
    Indeed, just as there is a difference between being Islamist personally etc. etc.
    Quite, but being at the same event as someone who YEARS LATER would make awful comments is not sympathising with Islamism.

    As I've asked before, was Thatcher a "paedo sympathiser" for associating with Jimmy Savile, years before she knew (or could've been expected to know) about what he did?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who think Zac (of all people) is racist are already voting Labour.

    HE probably isn't racist, just as Phil Woolas wasn't racist in his personal beliefs (he had Muslim friends, etcetc.)

    But there's a difference between being racist personally, and being willing to run (or turn a blind eye while your supporters run) a racist campaign.
    So associating with racists will hurt Zac, but associating with terrorist sympathisers won't hurt Khan. Right.

    I think they will both hurt, but the racism stuff plays to the Labour gallery, issues over terrorism play across the board.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    In the mayoral election, a lot is going to depend on the Evening Standard, which has a print-run of 900,000 and a readership of 1.5 million and is targeted very well at London voters. To date they've run a mixture of articles and comment pieces, some critical of Sadiq and some critical of Zac, but overall I would say reasonably balanced. If they start running a lot of anti-Sadiq articles on the terrorism issue, that would make a difference I think.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    watford30 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    If we don't want migrants coming north and we don't want them to stay in Greece then we are going to have to be prepared to move them to some other place, against their wishes, by force if necessary, while the event is being live-streamed.

    There is no nice way to turn away these people.
    The EU are merely fiddling whilst Rome burns. Short of armed intervention against the smugglers, there's nothing that they can do to stem the flow. King Cnut had more luck trying to hold back the sea.
    The whole point of the King Canute story is that he wanted to prove that he COULD NOT hold back the tide!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    watford30 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    If we don't want migrants coming north and we don't want them to stay in Greece then we are going to have to be prepared to move them to some other place, against their wishes, by force if necessary, while the event is being live-streamed.

    There is no nice way to turn away these people.
    The EU are merely fiddling whilst Rome burns. Short of armed intervention against the smugglers, there's nothing that they can do to stem the flow. King Cnut had more luck trying to hold back the sea.
    The whole point of the King Canute story is that he wanted to prove that he COULD NOT hold back the tide!
    You’re right Dr P, but some people will never be convinced.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,060
    edited March 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    The post from March 2013 when Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq at 33/1

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/22/yes-he-khan-sadiqs-a-great-33-1-bet-for-london-mayor/

    Interesting that there was some discussion about whether Sadiq Khan would want the job, rather than serve as a cabinet minister in a Miliband government.

    And also this, from Ms Cyclefree:
    Cyclefree said:

    Labour might want to make sure there are no skeletons in Sadiq Khan's cupboard before putting him forward. He was the MP whose calls with Babar Ahmed (charged by the US with terrorism offences) were bugged and questions were raised about whether he had been transparent to the Commons about the nature and length of his relationship.

    Also what's his expenses record like?

    Given some of Livingstone's dubious friendships/alliances, I would have thought that Labour would want to ensure that any future candidate does not face similar criticisms.

    More of the same...Babar Ahmed who was paid 60,000 by the Met police after being beaten up and the same Babir Ahmed who Boris Johnson set up an enquiry about in 2010? What is it about certain posters on here and people with non English sounding names? And lets check his expenses......

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babar_Ahmad
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In the mayoral election, a lot is going to depend on the Evening Standard, which has a print-run of 900,000 and a readership of 1.5 million and is targeted very well at London voters. To date they've run a mixture of articles and comment pieces, some critical of Sadiq and some critical of Zac, but overall I would say reasonably balanced. If they start running a lot of anti-Sadiq articles on the terrorism issue, that would make a difference I think.


    As they did against Ken.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,750
    I'm predicting this is going to be the least successful justice/social media campaign in history

    Convicted footballer's sister launches 'Justice for Johnson' campaign

    Facebook picture urges people to change their profile picture to support Adam Johnson after child sex offence convictions

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/08/footballer-adam-johnson-sister-justice-for-johnson-facebook?CMP=fb_a-football_b-gdnfootball
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    watford30 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    If we don't want migrants coming north and we don't want them to stay in Greece then we are going to have to be prepared to move them to some other place, against their wishes, by force if necessary, while the event is being live-streamed.

    There is no nice way to turn away these people.
    The EU are merely fiddling whilst Rome burns. Short of armed intervention against the smugglers, there's nothing that they can do to stem the flow. King Cnut had more luck trying to hold back the sea.
    We can send the Navy to turn back all boats to the nearest safe North African port. Doing that for 3-6 months will stop the flow from North Africa. We can designate Pakistan a safe country so anyone from there is immediately denied asylum and sent on the first plane back. We can designate Iraq as a safe country and do the same. Even Afghanistan tbh. European countries all have ID cards as well, so they can basically force the issue and demand papers from everyone entering and exiting train stations etc... for a few weeks and get all of the illegals deported back to North Africa.

    It needs tough action and hard headedness. There seems to be none of that in Europe at the moment and the one nation that might do it, the UK, has washed its hands of the whole situation by opting out of the migrant quota.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    watford30 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    If we don't want migrants coming north and we don't want them to stay in Greece then we are going to have to be prepared to move them to some other place, against their wishes, by force if necessary, while the event is being live-streamed.

    There is no nice way to turn away these people.
    The EU are merely fiddling whilst Rome burns. Short of armed intervention against the smugglers, there's nothing that they can do to stem the flow. King Cnut had more luck trying to hold back the sea.
    The whole point of the King Canute story is that he wanted to prove that he COULD NOT hold back the tide!
    Not even King Canute can hold back the tide of misunderstanding...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Danny565 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who think Zac (of all people) is racist are already voting Labour.

    HE probably isn't racist, just as Phil Woolas wasn't racist in his personal beliefs (he had Muslim friends, etcetc.)

    But there's a difference between being racist personally, and being willing to run (or turn a blind eye while your supporters run) a racist campaign.
    Indeed, just as there is a difference between being Islamist personally etc. etc.
    Quite, but being at the same event as someone who YEARS LATER would make awful comments is not sympathising with Islamism.

    As I've asked before, was Thatcher a "paedo sympathiser" for associating with Jimmy Savile, years before she knew (or could've been expected to know) about what he did?
    That's the weakest accusation against Sadiq, for sure.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Joe Murphy
    London's 2nd preferences go 2/1 to @SadiqKhan , finds @OpiniumResearch in @EveningStandard. https://t.co/iWseQrSEw6
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    OldKingCole said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    watford30 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://capx.co/merkels-migration-deal-with-turkey-is-bonkers/

    1) The migration deal proposed by Merkel as it stands is downright bonkers. Try and imagine the distressing scenes with TV crews on hand in April, May and June as thousands in Greek camps are removed by force, and sent to Turkey, which they paid a lot to leave...

    If we don't want migrants coming north and we don't want them to stay in Greece then we are going to have to be prepared to move them to some other place, against their wishes, by force if necessary, while the event is being live-streamed.

    There is no nice way to turn away these people.
    The EU are merely fiddling whilst Rome burns. Short of armed intervention against the smugglers, there's nothing that they can do to stem the flow. King Cnut had more luck trying to hold back the sea.
    The whole point of the King Canute story is that he wanted to prove that he COULD NOT hold back the tide!
    You’re right Dr P, but some people will never be convinced.
    True! More info here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_waves
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2016
    @Danny565


    'HE probably isn't racist, just as Phil Woolas wasn't racist in his personal beliefs (he had Muslim friends, etcetc.)

    But there's a difference between being racist personally, and being willing to run (or turn a blind eye while your supporters run) a racist campaign.'


    So nobody should mention anything about Khan's pals as one way or another they must be racist ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In the mayoral election, a lot is going to depend on the Evening Standard, which has a print-run of 900,000 and a readership of 1.5 million and is targeted very well at London voters. To date they've run a mixture of articles and comment pieces, some critical of Sadiq and some critical of Zac, but overall I would say reasonably balanced. If they start running a lot of anti-Sadiq articles on the terrorism issue, that would make a difference I think.

    I said exactly the same to one of the campaign directors at a Zac event. The Standard is so widely read in London now that it is free. I think they are working on it, the tone has shifted recently IMO.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025