politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield: How retiring MPs could add to Lib Dem woes

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bah.

The Lib Dems were doomed the moment I backed them to have 51plus seats at the next General Election

An excellent use of your curse, and money well spent.

Interesting article, Harry. In fact, I think the loss-of-incumbency effect in Berwick-upon-Tweed in particular might be even bigger than that, given Sir Alan Beith's popularity and personal reputation, built up over many years.

One thing puzzles me, though - the first bar-chart seems to indicate that Labour is actively disadvantaged by incumbency - is that right?

UKIP does not have sitting MPs

tim said:

No calculations for UKIP, are we to assume they poll the same in Dorset as last time?

Does the non-incumbency effect apply to by-elections?

It didn't seem to in Eastleigh.

Perhaps the Lib Dems would be better persuading their 'seniors' to continue standing as MPs, wheeling them into the House of Commons on hospital trolleys if necessary, and fighting by elections when they finally give up the ghost?

Informative as ever - Cheers Mr Hayfield.

“Whenever an MP stands down, the Liberal Democrat vote collapses compared to the national average”

There has been much talk of the incumbency factor wrt the Lib Dems – Is it entirely down to the quality & general high regard with which the LD MP is held, or are there other factors at play here?

HarryHayfield said:

Since the 1997 general election (in seats where the Lib Dem incumbent stands down) Labour (on average) see their vote in that constituency do 4% better than nationally. So for instance the national polls suggest Labour are up about 8% on the last election, this means that in this example Labour's vote would increase by 12% in a Lib Dem retiring seat. (The projections are based purely on a uniform national swing of 3% from Lib Dem to Con ignoring any Labour increase)

Ah, OK, that wasn't clear in the article. It makes sense.

SimonStClare said:

Informative as ever - Cheers Mr Hayfield.

“Whenever an MP stands down, the Liberal Democrat vote collapses compared to the national average”

There has been much talk of the incumbency factor wrt the Lib Dems – Is it entirely down to the quality & general high regard with which the LD MP is held, or are there other factors at play here?

One of the main elements is that party orgnanisation in LD Westminster seats is, as you'd expect, much stronger than the norm. We see in local council elections that the party is doing reasonably well where it has sitting MPs.

There are a few other places where they are in a position to challenge the Tory incumbent and I expect one or two gains. One in particular will be a great bet if a particular candidate is persuaded to stand.

edmundintokyo said:

RichardNabavi said:

One thing puzzles me, though - the first bar-chart seems to indicate that Labour is actively disadvantaged by incumbency - is that right?

The graph could do with a label, but it must mean that Labour are disadvantaged by the incumbency of the LibDem in seats the LibDems hold.

Right, or, to put it another way, when the incumbent retires, the LibDem vote falls substantially (compared with any rise/fall in other constituencies), with Labour benefitting more than the Conservatives in vote-share terms. Of course, that may still have the effect that the Conservatives win the seat if it's a Con/LD marginal.

Interesting to note that in 2010 'Others' (presumably the Greens) seem to have gained the most.

I'm trying to think of an instance of a LD MP retiring and the successor candidate increasing the LD share of the vote...

edmundintokyo said:

RichardNabavi said:

One thing puzzles me, though - the first bar-chart seems to indicate that Labour is actively disadvantaged by incumbency - is that right?

The graph could do with a label, but it must mean that Labour are disadvantaged by the incumbency of the LibDem in seats the LibDems hold.

I've amended the chart to make clear is that it shows changes in LD seats when a non incumbent tries to defend it.

To see the revised chart right click and choose the "re-load frame" option

I like this from Nick Boles

Photofit of Ed Miliband egging suspect released... pic.twitter.com/DkTUADAKXW

AveryLP said:

Does the non-incumbency effect apply to by-elections?

It didn't seem to in Eastleigh.

Perhaps the Lib Dems would be better persuading their 'seniors' to continue standing as MPs, wheeling them into the House of Commons on hospital trolleys if necessary, and fighting by elections when they finally give up the ghost?

I think they'll prefer the alternative approach, which is to get them caught up in scandals right away and have the by-election early so they have a new incumbent in place for the general.

AveryLP said:

JosiasJessop said:

MikeSmithson said:

David Skelton ‏@DJSkelton 10m
When Harold Wilson was hit by an egg in '70, he responded,"if the Tories get in, in five years no-one will be able to afford to buy an egg."

I freely admit to not knowing the price of an egg, despite buying some this morning. Does this make me rich or just senile?

Merely coddled.

Addled, surely.

AveryLP said:

JosiasJessop said:

MikeSmithson said:

David Skelton ‏@DJSkelton 10m
When Harold Wilson was hit by an egg in '70, he responded,"if the Tories get in, in five years no-one will be able to afford to buy an egg."

I freely admit to not knowing the price of an egg, despite buying some this morning. Does this make me rich or just senile?

Merely coddled.

I love coddled eggs. Although throwing one (in coddler) might lead to a charge of GBH or worse.

Mrs J doesn't like them - she thinks the hassle of using a bain-marie is a little eggcessive.

Which came first, the chicken or the Ed?

Ah - the Red Arrows in formation. The sight and roaring sound of an Exeter summer to gladden the heart.

SimonStClare said:

Sky - video of the egging – it looks as though the perp, Dean Porter, emptied the entire cartoon. And the smile on his face throughout is priceless…!

http://news.sky.com/story/1128517/ed-miliband-is-egged-on-campaign-visit

Watching that video, what is a "market officer"?

SimonStClare said:

JosiasJessop said:

SimonStClare said:

Sky - video of the egging – it looks as though the perp, Dean Porter, emptied the entire cartoon. And the smile on his face throughout is priceless…!

http://news.sky.com/story/1128517/ed-miliband-is-egged-on-campaign-visit

Watching that video, what is a "market officer"?

JosiasJessop said:

SimonStClare said:

Sky - video of the egging – it looks as though the perp, Dean Porter, emptied the entire cartoon. And the smile on his face throughout is priceless…!

http://news.sky.com/story/1128517/ed-miliband-is-egged-on-campaign-visit

Watching that video, what is a "market officer"?

To be honest I’m not entirely sure – Salisbury where I live, has a twice weekly market in the town square which I believe has council employed chaps on hand to help set up, organise and generally assist the stall holders – However they don’t wear florescent vests and act as security guards AFAIK.

Must be a rough London neighbourhood thing…!

Or a creeping way of grabbing powers. Private Eye used to go on about one borough (perhaps Newham) where some minor officials were sometimes confused with an official police force. Or perhaps I misremember.

(some google-fu).

Ah yes, Newham Community Constabulary.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newham_Community_Constabulary

OblitusSumMe said:

Josias. FPT:

As far as I can tell the solicitor mucked up and left it unclear, as was discussed below. However, I would think they had a bit of a better idea of the lady's wishes than you.

Unless you knew her or are a necrophiliac clairvoyant?

The point of written wills, and the rule of law, etc, is so that we have formal ways of establishing truth, and intent, rather than relying on more easily corrupted informal methods.

If her intention was to leave her money to the party that formed the government of the day, then her solicitors gravely failed her by failing to make that plain in her will - which after all would not have been difficult to do.

As it is, we are left with the letter of her will - that she signed - the word of her solicitors and a mess for all concerned.

I do not claim to know the will of the deceased in this case, but I think the starting point for an independent third party in this instance has to be the letter of the will that she signed. And that provides little support for the actions of the executors of her will.

IANAL, but in my inexpert way I disagree about the wording of the will - it seems to me to be unclear either way. Is there a standard wording for cases where people want to bequeath their money to the state, or was the text what you would expect in that case?

As I said, IANAL, so those are probably either stupid or irrelevant questions ...

@TGOHF Last night I was quoted over £300 to fly a return to Londonderry this weekend by Ryanair. Right now I'd dig the tunnel myself.

JosiasJessop said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Josias. FPT:

As far as I can tell the solicitor mucked up and left it unclear, as was discussed below. However, I would think they had a bit of a better idea of the lady's wishes than you.

Unless you knew her or are a necrophiliac clairvoyant?

The point of written wills, and the rule of law, etc, is so that we have formal ways of establishing truth, and intent, rather than relying on more easily corrupted informal methods.

If her intention was to leave her money to the party that formed the government of the day, then her solicitors gravely failed her by failing to make that plain in her will - which after all would not have been difficult to do.

As it is, we are left with the letter of her will - that she signed - the word of her solicitors and a mess for all concerned.

I do not claim to know the will of the deceased in this case, but I think the starting point for an independent third party in this instance has to be the letter of the will that she signed. And that provides little support for the actions of the executors of her will.

IANAL, but in my inexpert way I disagree about the wording of the will - it seems to me to be unclear either way. Is there a standard wording for cases where people want to bequeath their money to the state, or was the text what you would expect in that case?

As I said, IANAL, so those are probably either stupid or irrelevant questions ...

There is a very clear statement from her lawyers. Now, I suppose they may be lying, but there is no evidence to suggest that is the case.

If we take a step back: this lady wanted to bequest her money in the way she decided. That decision is being ignored. That doesn't seem right to me.

In a statement on Wednesday Davis Wood, the solicitors handling Miss Edwards's estate, said that when the will was drafted in 2001, they had checked with her "the unusual nature of her proposed bequest".

"It was confirmed by Miss Edwards at the time of her instructions that her estate was to be left to whichever political party formed the government at the date of her death," they said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23691209

MikeK said:

Neil said:

tim said:

Unravelling Cameron's attacks on the disabled must be a priority for a civilised govt

That's a bit rich coming from the guy who wanted to cut disabled people's benefits by more.

Not much to choose between your lot, is there Neil and tim?

My lot is very different from tim's lot. Though tim did vote for my lot in 2009 but I think he regrets it now.

Charles said:

There is a very clear statement from her lawyers. Now, I suppose they may be lying, but there is no evidence to suggest that is the case.

If we take a step back: this lady wanted to bequest her money in the way she decided. That decision is being ignored. That doesn't seem right to me.

In a statement on Wednesday Davis Wood, the solicitors handling Miss Edwards's estate, said that when the will was drafted in 2001, they had checked with her "the unusual nature of her proposed bequest".

"It was confirmed by Miss Edwards at the time of her instructions that her estate was to be left to whichever political party formed the government at the date of her death," they said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23691209

What does not seem right to me is that the lawyers can make a very clear statement now, but they took money from this lady for drafting and executing her will, and failed completely to make her wishes clear in that will.

There's a very clear difference between the "government" and the "party of government, and it is rank incompetence on the part of the solicitors when drafting her will.

Given the fees that solicitors charge it's not too much to expect that they get something that simple right.

JosiasJessop said:

I'm minded to agree - see end of last thread. However the legalities of the situation are way beyond me.

I used to think software and hardware specifications were hard to understand fully. Then I had to read and understand patents, and realised specifications were simple. Then I had to read legal documents, and went to sit on Trinity Backs with a bottle of wine. ;-0

My opinion on this has changed several times in the course of the day, as different bits of evidence have been revealed.

It certainly does not encourage me to seek the assistance of a solicitor in drawing up a will.

Sky News Cameraman Killed In Egypt whilst reporting on Cairo violence.

Holiday destination re-think would be a wise idea imho.

http://news.sky.com/story/1128530/sky-news-cameraman-killed-in-egypt

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

I used to think software and hardware specifications were hard to understand fully. Then I had to read and understand patents, and realised specifications were simple. Then I had to read legal documents, and went to sit on Trinity Backs with a bottle of wine. ;-0

Try registration dossiers...

(although the most dense document I have read recently was a legal paper on whether supplementary protection should be granted to a patent. It turned on whether a strain or group of strains was an innovation...)

If you want real complexity, you should try what Mrs J does. Analogue RF is chip design with the few certainties of the digital domain removed. Basically, it's as near to magic as technology gets.

Which gives me another opportunity to post the brilliant Britney Spears' Guide to Semiconductor Physics. (barely safe for work, either for the pictures of Ms Spears, or the hardcore equations within)
http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm

I can particularly recommend the page on my favourite topic, photolithography:
http://britneyspears.ac/physics/fabrication/photolithography.htm

Nats need to persuade 3 out of every 4 undecided voters to win indyref.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/the-indy-undecideds-yes-camp-need-to-persuade-75-poll-finds.1376483094

TheWatcher said:

Just another sign of the headless chickens clucking and flapping as the Economy improves.

They're disconnected and desperate.

@hopisen
If our strategy is to hold off on policy news until Leader's speech to maximise impact, why is someone briefing @georgeeaton on them now?

Presumably there is a written record of the exchanges that took place between the solicitors and the lady back in 2001. Given it happened 12 years ago it's quite possible the relevant lawyers are no longer with the firm and/or have misremembered. But whatever else it is extraordinary that the will was not drafted more carefully so that there was absolutely no room for doubt.

SouthamObserver said:

Presumably there is a written record of the exchanges that took place between the solicitors and the lady back in 2001. Given it happened 12 years ago it's quite possible the relevant lawyers are no longer with the firm and/or have misremembered. But whatever else it is extraordinary that the will was not drafted more carefully so that there was absolutely no room for doubt.

You really are desperate to give this legs, aren't you?

TGOHF said:

Hmm - so they are secret - once the Buddha awakes from his trantric meditation it will all become clear.

Yes, they are secret.

Apart from the subsidy for spare rooms for the workshy. That's a definite winner.

Rail fares, threatening illegal gas bill caps and wagging fingers at wonga - hardly a revolution ?

NO, but labour has a point here. Rail fares are absolutely extortionate and utility prices are soaring.

The government will have to do something

@JJ

Definately

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

Presumably there is a written record of the exchanges that took place between the solicitors and the lady back in 2001. Given it happened 12 years ago it's quite possible the relevant lawyers are no longer with the firm and/or have misremembered. But whatever else it is extraordinary that the will was not drafted more carefully so that there was absolutely no room for doubt.

You really are desperate to give this legs, aren't you?

Obviously that is what you would like to believe. But you may wish to refer back to my postings on the matter in the previous thread in which I said that any reasonable person would conclude that the Tories and the LDs took the money in good faith.

Regarding the comments below and on previous thread about the quality of Wills being written the following came from a Legal Services Board investigation in 2011 "Understanding the consumer experience of will-writing services."

"Approximately one-quarter of all wills collected failed the assessment, primarily because they were deemed to be of insufficient quality (that is, they failed to meet the needs and circumstances of the client) and less frequently because they were deemed not to be legally valid. There was little difference between solicitors and specialist will-writers in terms of the proportion of wills that failed, while the proportion of fails among self-completion wills was considerably higher."
Lessons:
1. Get someone competent in Will Writing and not a generalist lawyer.
2. Do not do it yourself.