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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield: How retiring MPs could add to Lib Dem woes
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield: How retiring MPs could add to Lib Dem woes
With recent polls putting the Liberal Democrats at 10% of the national vote (in a virtual tie with UKIP and half their general election vote in 2010), it is safe to say that most Liberal Democrat activists are starting to get just a little on the edgy side about the next election (now less than 21 months away, assuming there isn’t a vote of no confidence as in Germany a few years ago).
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The Lib Dems were doomed the moment I backed them to have 51plus seats at the next General Election
currystar said:
As I said this morning there would be no way that executors would pay money from a will to someone who was not entitled to it. No matter the Mail, OGH, and many politicians from all sides fell for it. People may think its amazing that someone would want to leave their entire fortune to a political party, but if it is that persons wish then so be it. They should not give the money to the state, this lady wanted them to have it and her wishes should be met, not those of the sniveling jealous losers who somehow thought that two political parties had managed to interfere with the executors of a will and got them to pay them money inappropriately. It simply could not happen.
"People may think its amazing that someone would want to leave their entire fortune to a political party"
But she didn't leave it to a specific political party. That's what is completely bizarre.
We'll probably never know what her motivation was when she wrote her will, but the probability that she decided to bet part of her estate on a game of electoral cycle roulette has to be pretty low - whatever the solicitors say.
One thing puzzles me, though - the first bar-chart seems to indicate that Labour is actively disadvantaged by incumbency - is that right?
9 ways Ed Miliband and Wallace from “Wallace And Gromit” are basically the same person http://bit.ly/15wCcCL
You just know there's no hope for Ed, don't you...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_Liberal_Democrat_MPs_(2010–)
It didn't seem to in Eastleigh.
Perhaps the Lib Dems would be better persuading their 'seniors' to continue standing as MPs, wheeling them into the House of Commons on hospital trolleys if necessary, and fighting by elections when they finally give up the ghost?
“Whenever an MP stands down, the Liberal Democrat vote collapses compared to the national average”
There has been much talk of the incumbency factor wrt the Lib Dems – Is it entirely down to the quality & general high regard with which the LD MP is held, or are there other factors at play here?
When Harold Wilson was hit by an egg in '70, he responded,"if the Tories get in, in five years no-one will be able to afford to buy an egg."
There are a few other places where they are in a position to challenge the Tory incumbent and I expect one or two gains. One in particular will be a great bet if a particular candidate is persuaded to stand.
Huppert could be in for a generation..
Interesting to note that in 2010 'Others' (presumably the Greens) seem to have gained the most.
To see the revised chart right click and choose the "re-load frame" option
Photofit of Ed Miliband egging suspect released... pic.twitter.com/DkTUADAKXW
See what I did there?
Apparently as the eggs started flying everyone was scrambling to get out of the way. Obviously somebody egged the guy on and tempers just boiled over, but we should give people the benedict of the doubt.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/08/henry-hill-former-snp-leader-demands-nationalists-attack-southern-cancer.html
Mrs J doesn't like them - she thinks the hassle of using a bain-marie is a little eggcessive.
It's obvious that eggstreme measures are called for. The hens are being scrambled ready to fry. We're not sure how it'll pan out, but we shell get to the bottom of it.
http://news.sky.com/story/1128517/ed-miliband-is-egged-on-campaign-visit
Must be a rough London neighbourhood thing…!
Top question from @KayBurley "Do you want to see pictures of Prince William or do you want to see pictures of Ed Miliband being egged?"
If her intention was to leave her money to the party that formed the government of the day, then her solicitors gravely failed her by failing to make that plain in her will - which after all would not have been difficult to do.
As it is, we are left with the letter of her will - that she signed - the word of her solicitors and a mess for all concerned.
I do not claim to know the will of the deceased in this case, but I think the starting point for an independent third party in this instance has to be the letter of the will that she signed. And that provides little support for the actions of the executors of her will.
(some google-fu).
Ah yes, Newham Community Constabulary.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newham_Community_Constabulary
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23672538
has a striking resemblance to this page on wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Sea_fixed_crossing
If her intention was to leave her money to the party that formed the government of the day, then her solicitors gravely failed her by failing to make that plain in her will - which after all would not have been difficult to do.
As it is, we are left with the letter of her will - that she signed - the word of her solicitors and a mess for all concerned.
I do not claim to know the will of the deceased in this case, but I think the starting point for an independent third party in this instance has to be the letter of the will that she signed. And that provides little support for the actions of the executors of her will.
IANAL, but in my inexpert way I disagree about the wording of the will - it seems to me to be unclear either way. Is there a standard wording for cases where people want to bequeath their money to the state, or was the text what you would expect in that case?
As I said, IANAL, so those are probably either stupid or irrelevant questions ...
As I said, IANAL, so those are probably either stupid or irrelevant questions ...
There is a very clear statement from her lawyers. Now, I suppose they may be lying, but there is no evidence to suggest that is the case.
If we take a step back: this lady wanted to bequest her money in the way she decided. That decision is being ignored. That doesn't seem right to me.
In a statement on Wednesday Davis Wood, the solicitors handling Miss Edwards's estate, said that when the will was drafted in 2001, they had checked with her "the unusual nature of her proposed bequest".
"It was confirmed by Miss Edwards at the time of her instructions that her estate was to be left to whichever political party formed the government at the date of her death," they said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23691209
Tory cuts so far, 20,000 Army, 5,000 Navy, 5,000 RAF, 60,000 NHS, 16,000 Police, 730,000 Public Sector,1,700 Remploy, 2 Bankers
#votetory
LOL
#votewinner !
I used to think software and hardware specifications were hard to understand fully. Then I had to read and understand patents, and realised specifications were simple. Then I had to read legal documents, and went to sit on Trinity Backs with a bottle of wine. ;-0
Voters don't like to see those on benefits living in bigger houses than they need whilst they have to graft just to afford a smaller place.
Smarter Labourites have grasped this.
(although the most dense document I have read recently was a legal paper on whether supplementary protection should be granted to a patent. It turned on whether a strain or group of strains was an innovation...)
Graham Stringer tells @bbc5live: "I'm even more worried now [about Labour] than I was on Sunday when I did the interview with the BBC."
"Yet more than 19 out of 20 families hit by the bedroom tax are trapped in their larger homes because there is nowhere smaller within the local social housing stock to take them."
Either pay up or move out to an area where there is suitable accommodation.
That's what people who are struggling in the private sector who don;t qualify for welfare do all the time.
There's a very clear difference between the "government" and the "party of government, and it is rank incompetence on the part of the solicitors when drafting her will.
Given the fees that solicitors charge it's not too much to expect that they get something that simple right.
Not for the workshy.
If the intent was to give it to political parties then the bequest was drafted very badly.
Let's hope that none of the solicitors involved is a CON OR LD activist.
"The Government" implies the state.
"Whichever government is in office" is clearly distinct from the state. Especially since the solicitors spoke to them and clarified her intent.
The Daily Mail is a confection of objectionable self-righteous arses.
It certainly does not encourage me to seek the assistance of a solicitor in drawing up a will.
I don;t see how you can simultaneously claim the government is spending more on the vulnerable and at the same time say what the government is doing is cruel and heartless.
There's an essential lack of logic in what the left are saying. A bit like the undernourished children/fat children debate.
One the one hand there are millions of rickety barefoot six year olds being used as chimney sweeps in Britain, but here's also an army of obese kids being exploited by uncaring multinationals.
Holiday destination re-think would be a wise idea imho.
http://news.sky.com/story/1128530/sky-news-cameraman-killed-in-egypt
The disabled are being used as pawn by the much larger number of people who have extra space who aren't in this situation. Or rather by the people who purport to represent them.
Which gives me another opportunity to post the brilliant Britney Spears' Guide to Semiconductor Physics. (barely safe for work, either for the pictures of Ms Spears, or the hardcore equations within)
http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
I can particularly recommend the page on my favourite topic, photolithography:
http://britneyspears.ac/physics/fabrication/photolithography.htm
Just another sign of the headless chickens clucking and flapping as the Economy improves.
They're disconnected and desperate.
Nats need to persuade 3 out of every 4 undecided voters to win indyref.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/the-indy-undecideds-yes-camp-need-to-persuade-75-poll-finds.1376483094
Why didn't Labour support the benefit cap ? Will they reverse that ?
If our strategy is to hold off on policy news until Leader's speech to maximise impact, why is someone briefing @georgeeaton on them now?
Since the will does not specify the beneficiary as being the party of government, then one could just as easily interpret it as intending to benefit the individuals who are members of the government, and divide the bequest between government ministers.
After all, constitutionally, it is the individuals who are in office as part of the government, rather than the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties, as such.
This is why I attached so much importance to the question of whether the word "party" had been used in the will, when I made my first comment on this matter this morning.
Ed Miliband's "cost of living crisis" sound bite undermined by demonstration that eggs are cheap
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10242691/Ed-Miliband-rejects-Burnham-warning-Labour-must-shout-louder.html
So Andy will just keep quiet now, right?
"If you just take this area of the cost of living crisis. Have Labour got answers? Absolutely we've got answers - on rail fares, on energy prices, on payday lenders, on a fairer tax system.
"That's what we are going to be talking about in the coming months," he said."
Hmm - so they are secret - once the Buddha awakes from his trantric meditation it will all become clear.
Rail fares, threatening illegal gas bill caps and wagging fingers at wonga - hardly a revolution ?
Apart from the subsidy for spare rooms for the workshy. That's a definite winner.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome
NO, but labour has a point here. Rail fares are absolutely extortionate and utility prices are soaring.
The government will have to do something
determiner & pronoun
used to emphasize a lack of restriction in selecting one of a definite set of alternatives: [as determiner]:choose whichever brand you prefer
http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/whichever
Definately
Because they think that base rates will increase they need a higher rate of return on their gilts to avoid a capital loss. Think of it as a vote of confidence in the UK recovery.
The EZ in contrast, still has a much poorer outlook despite this morning's figures so their rates will likely remain unchanged for longer. Hopefully their figures will also pick up soon at which point their gilt rates will pick up as well.
Not extraordinary, there are lots of crap lawyers out there.
It is very very difficult to get the court to consider extrinsic evidence when construing a document like a will.
My latest grump was returning from the cricket on Sunday. To go on an earlier train than the one I had booked was going to cost me more than the original ticket. Hopefully that is my last use of the railways this year.
The more general uplift in the world economy is likely to cause a further uplift in energy prices. Further delays in fracking are simply not acceptable and will result in some poor, old people dying of the cold.
"Approximately one-quarter of all wills collected failed the assessment, primarily because they were deemed to be of insufficient quality (that is, they failed to meet the needs and circumstances of the client) and less frequently because they were deemed not to be legally valid. There was little difference between solicitors and specialist will-writers in terms of the proportion of wills that failed, while the proportion of fails among self-completion wills was considerably higher."
Lessons:
1. Get someone competent in Will Writing and not a generalist lawyer.
2. Do not do it yourself.