politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s succe

Seventeen millionth!

Ruth Davidson just said she hates England.

Which Tory party are we talking about? Isn’t a split on the cards? Although the Tories do seem to have managed to avoid them for almost 200 years, and benefited from splits in other parties.

A split? Nah.

Self-preservation trumps all. Even UKIP only gained two MPs, and retained one who've they've fallen out with.

OldKingCole said:

Which Tory party are we talking about? Isn’t a split on the cards? Although the Tories do seem to have managed to avoid them for almost 200 years, and benefited from splits in other parties.

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Boris is the Tory Trump.
Osborne is Jeb.

Alistair said:

Ruth Davidson just said she hates England.

Crikey, has Ruth Davidson joined the SNP?

Ditto, and May blew it over the EUref.

I'm stuck as to Who Next

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Ruth Davidson just said she hates England.

Crikey, has Ruth Davidson joined the SNP?

No, but she is a Remainer though..

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

"This is like the jailer has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the sunlit land beyond," he said.

"And everybody is suddenly wrangling about the terrors of the world outside."

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

david_herdson said:

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

Not an Osborne fan ?

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

Not an Osborne fan ?

No.

Plato_Says said:

Ditto, and May blew it over the EUref.

I'm stuck as to Who Next

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

Nadine.

Plato_Says said:

"This is like the jailer has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the sunlit land beyond," he said.

"And everybody is suddenly wrangling about the terrors of the world outside."

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

It's a potent metaphor, a national jail break, a great escape.

It's a "something for nothing" metaphor - with a competent opposition anyone proposing it would be blown out of the water.

Alistair

I saw the Davidson interview and despite getting a lobbed a series of softballs from the totally and shamelessly biased Gordon Brewer she was hopeless - getting confused on tax policy and giggling her way through explaining why with a NEGATIVE popularity rating her name should be on the ballot paper.

She is vastly hyped up and heading for a fall in third place.

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

After she backed Remain the odds are that it will now be Osborne as the Remain candidate and either Boris or Gove as the Leave candidate in the final 2

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

Truth be told Cameron is just a bland ingratiating PR guy who was marginally more palatable than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. He's been found out over the past month and he's starting to stink. The sooner he goes the better.

Leaving aside Boris, Osborne and Mrs May which I most assuredly would and looking down the list of other current Cabinet Ministers (a perilously restrictive strategy I appreciate), I can only find half a dozen of other realistic possible candidates as follows, showing their best decimal odds and from whom these are available:

Philip Hammond ............ 40 (Betfair)
Michael Gove ................. 15 (Various)
Michael Fallon ............... 50 (Ladbrokes)
Jeremy Hunt .................. 46 (Betfair)
Nicky Morgan ................ 66 (Skybet)
Sajid Javid ..................... 17 (Bet365)

From the above sextet, I reckon the best value for money, not to win, but as trading opportunities are Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid.

IMHO, it's difficult to think of any other Cabinet Ministers having more than a 1% - 2% chance at best of becoming Tory Leader, thereby warranting odds of at least 50/1 - 100/1.
DYOR

Theuniondivvie said:

Davidson rapidly taking on for the SCons the status of Gareth Bale for the Wales team, though perhaps not to quite the same effect. If it's all a bit meh after May and she succumbs to the calls to move to a 'bigger' political arena, what will happen to the poor old SCons?

https://twitter.com/ScottMacnab/status/706427641763643392

Does seem to be putting all their eggs in one basket, but then I suppose the basket was nearly empty so there's not that much risk.

peter_from_putney said:

Leaving aside Boris, Osborne and Mrs May which I most assuredly would and looking down the list of other current Cabinet Ministers (a perilously restrictive strategy I appreciate), I can only find half a dozen of other realistic possible candidates as follows, showing their best decimal odds and from whom these are available:

Philip Hammond ............ 40 (Betfair)
Michael Gove ................. 15 (Various)
Michael Fallon ............... 50 (Ladbrokes)
Jeremy Hunt .................. 46 (Betfair)
Nicky Morgan ................ 66 (Skybet)
Sajid Javid ..................... 17 (Bet365)

From the above sextet, I reckon the best value for money, not to win, but as trading opportunities are Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid.

IMHO, it's difficult to think of any other Cabinet Ministers having more than a 1% - 2% chance at best of becoming Tory Leader, thereby warranting odds of at least 50/1 - 100/1.
DYOR

Morgan is certainly worth considering as a trading bet, as she seems to want to stand and makes sure this is known at every opportunity. Personally, I think she is utterly deluded, but she'll try and that will bring down the odds.

gettingbetter said:

peter_from_putney said:

O/T

After yesterday's primaries, Rubio's odds against becoming GOP nominee have lengthened out to around 17/1 with Betfair, slightly longer in fact than those of John Kasich.
Trump is around 3/5 favourite with Cruz on 4/1.

peter_from_putney said:

O/T

After yesterday's primaries, Rubio's odds against becoming GOP nominee have lengthened out to around 17/1 with Betfair, slightly longer in fact than those of John Kasich.
Trump is around 3/5 favourite with Cruz on 4/1.

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

The GOP nominee book does indeed occasionally go below 100%. I spent £500 of field green to gain £10 on all the runners (Including Jeb! ) a few days back.

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Scott Walker?

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Kasich isn't really a liberal Nick. He's played his campaign to the centre, but the only actual centrist in the GOP race was Chris Christie. He's to the right of Romney/McCain on the issues I think...

Rubio is almost as right wing as Cruz !

Ben Riley Smith
NEW -- Twice as many Tory local chairmen back Brexit than staying in EU, BBC survey reveals.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12185065/Twice-as-many-Tory-local-chairmen-back-Brexit-than-staying-in-EU-survey-reveals.html

Only another 360 odd days until House of Cards Season 5.....

rottenborough said:

peter_from_putney said:

Leaving aside Boris, Osborne and Mrs May which I most assuredly would and looking down the list of other current Cabinet Ministers (a perilously restrictive strategy I appreciate), I can only find half a dozen of other realistic possible candidates as follows, showing their best decimal odds and from whom these are available:

Philip Hammond ............ 40 (Betfair)
Michael Gove ................. 15 (Various)
Michael Fallon ............... 50 (Ladbrokes)
Jeremy Hunt .................. 46 (Betfair)
Nicky Morgan ................ 66 (Skybet)
Sajid Javid ..................... 17 (Bet365)

From the above sextet, I reckon the best value for money, not to win, but as trading opportunities are Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid.

IMHO, it's difficult to think of any other Cabinet Ministers having more than a 1% - 2% chance at best of becoming Tory Leader, thereby warranting odds of at least 50/1 - 100/1.
DYOR

Morgan is certainly worth considering as a trading bet, as she seems to want to stand and makes sure this is known at every opportunity. Personally, I think she is utterly deluded, but she'll try and that will bring down the odds.

I don't understand why she thinks she's leadership material.

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Courting MPs should definitely help him, but the problem with being a backroom manipulator and schemer, operating in the dark, is sometimes when it is time for all to act in the light, the schemes fall apart and people do not act as they otherwise would. Or to put it another way, how firm is the support he has courted, should things really turn against him, economically or otherwise?

FTPT

Pong said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

Alistair said:

I have reduced my exposure to the RepNom market but increased my green on Trump. I am lovin this.

For the nomination or POTUS?

Nomination.

I traded bady a week ago so I am doing worse than I was but I've gone from

Trump +1
Cruz+6.5
Rubio-1
Field 0

To

Trump+2
Cruz+.5
Ryan/Romeny +.5
Field 0

Given I think Trump has this locked up I am happy with where I am.

You didn't trade that badly by the looks of it.

Given Cruz's price did exactly what I predicted it would over the last week and a bit almost to the decimal place I didn't buy enough when it was a high and sold too early when it was going down.

I should be sitting with Trump +4 rather than +2 if I hadn't had an attack of the vapours.

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Gove might not be the next leader but were I Cameron, I'd think very seriously about making him chancellor the day after the referendum.

Not an Osborne fan ?

Osborne for Foreign Secretary. Hammond to Justice.

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Kasich isn't really a liberal Nick. He's played his campaign to the centre, but the only actual centrist in the GOP race was Chris Christie. He's to the right of Romney/McCain on the issues I think...

Rubio is almost as right wing as Cruz !

Kasich has said he accepts climate change and the verdict of the Supreme Court on gay marriage, he is left of Romney and certainly the most centrist candidate left in the race

scotslass said:

Alistair

I saw the Davidson interview and despite getting a lobbed a series of softballs from the totally and shamelessly biased Gordon Brewer she was hopeless - getting confused on tax policy and giggling her way through explaining why with a NEGATIVE popularity rating her name should be on the ballot paper.

She is vastly hyped up and heading for a fall in third place.

Nearly every politician has a negative popularity rating. What matters is how they poll against their party's score.

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
NEW -- Twice as many Tory local chairmen back Brexit than staying in EU, BBC survey reveals.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12185065/Twice-as-many-Tory-local-chairmen-back-Brexit-than-staying-in-EU-survey-reveals.html

54 out of how many Cons Associations??

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Courting MPs should definitely help him, but the problem with being a backroom manipulator and schemer, operating in the dark, is sometimes when it is time for all to act in the light, the schemes fall apart and people do not act as they otherwise would. Or to put it another way, how firm is the support he has courted, should things really turn against him, economically or otherwise?

It is by no means guaranteed but Osborne certainly has a good chance of ensuring MPs put him through to the final round with Gove and knock out Boris

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Scott Walker?

Ha ha ha no.

He's a political midget who's home state scandals would basically give Hilary a free pass on integrity.

And people backed him @ 4.6 - Lol.

CLAPS

frpenkridge said:

"It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules."
In the EU prison we act like Godber whilst France and Germany act like Harry Grout.

JosiasJessop said:

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

For these reasons, I'd look to real outsiders. I'd be intrigued to see how Rory Stewart might do the job, although his experience of managing Iraqi provinces might not have prepared him for the infighting within the Tory party ...

Thanks for suggesting that left field possibility ..... that's what we need from a betting perspective - a handful of talented but unconsidered rank outsiders, Corbyn equivalents if you will, at triple digit odds! But please don't mention my local MP for London SW15; in my view she has absolutely no chance whatsoever ...... are you hearing this Mr. Dancer?

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

gettingbetter said:

Strangely all four candidates left in can be backed for around 93% and even including the whole list around 98-99%. Is there a very small risk that a brokered convention leads to a selection that is not on the list, or is this free money?

Yes, I'd think there's a risk. If Trump and Cruz were seen as unacceptable and Kasich too liberal, they might fancy a "unifier" who hadn't been involved in the bloodletting.

Scott Walker?

Ha ha ha no.

He's a political midget who's home state scandals would basically give Hilary a free pass on integrity.

And people backed him @ 4.6 - Lol.

Scott Walker has just been put back in the GOP nominee race on Betfair trolololol.

peter_from_putney said:

JosiasJessop said:

peter_from_putney said:

Not one of my circle of friends (admittedly it's really quite a small circle) remotely rates Boris Johnson as being of Prime Ministerial material and certainly I wouldn't be backing him even at odds stretching significantly into double figures.
I would say much the same of George Osborne - So with those two out of the way, there should be some money to be made by backing, stjohn-wise, a selection of other promising candidates.

PS I don't give Mrs May any real chance either.

For these reasons, I'd look to real outsiders. I'd be intrigued to see how Rory Stewart might do the job, although his experience of managing Iraqi provinces might not have prepared him for the infighting within the Tory party ...

Thanks for suggesting that left field possibility ..... that's what we need from a betting perspective - a handful of talented but unconsidered rank outsiders, Corbyn equivalents if you will, at triple digit odds! But please don't mention my local MP for London SW15; in my view she has absolutely no chance whatsoever ...... are you hearing this Mr. Dancer?

Rory is only 75 on BF.

flightpath01 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JohnO said:

Truth is that Cameron is head and shoulders above each and every one of his putative successors. I still hope (yeah, I know, whistling in the dark) that he reverses the decision to resign and leads us into the 2020 election.

Don't write off Mrs May quite yet. She could still make the ballot of members. If Remain wins by 10% or more, Boris will be doing well to become PUSS at Climate Change.

Truth be told Cameron is just a bland ingratiating PR guy who was marginally more palatable than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. He's been found out over the past month and he's starting to stink. The sooner he goes the better.

You will wake up one day.

Cameron no longer represents the Tory party, Johnson does. It's time for Dave to join his hero Tony on the lucrative and contemptible ex-statesman's lecture circuit.

I'm not sure that Evan even needs guests. A cardboard cutout would be allowed as much airtime.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Plato_Says said:

1:17PM
Christopher Hope
Boris Johnson was interrupted 57 times on the Andrew Marr Show today; PM was only intrerrupted 23 times two weeks ago. #marr

Its a good job Evan Davis wasn't doing the interview, it would have been about 570 interruptions.

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

I think Boris problem is getting on the Tory ballot. He's not too popular with MPs as far as I can see. Osborne will presumably try anything he can to get an-other on the ballot.

Indeed, if it is Leave Boris probably becomes leader regardless, perhaps with Gove as Chancellor, if it is a big Remain Osborne is likely to be the next leader. If it is a narrow Remain, the most likely outcome, Boris stil has a good chance but Osborne will also fancy his chances and will try and get someone else on the ballot against him, eg if Osborne can get MPs to put Gove in the final two against him as the Brexit candidate Osborne would probably win with the membership as Gove polls even worse with the public than him

Is Osborne a master of mind control then?

He is a master of electoral powerplay, far more than Boris and has been courting MPs for years, Gove is also more popular with MPs than Boris which could help him through to the final two

Courting MPs should definitely help him, but the problem with being a backroom manipulator and schemer, operating in the dark, is sometimes when it is time for all to act in the light, the schemes fall apart and people do not act as they otherwise would. Or to put it another way, how firm is the support he has courted, should things really turn against him, economically or otherwise?

It is by no means guaranteed but Osborne certainly has a good chance of ensuring MPs put him through to the final round with Gove and knock out Boris

It worked for Brown in no small part because Labour MPs nominations are public and so he could see which promises were not being kept / favours did not have be returned. Osborne will have no such advantage.

As David Davis found out when his promised support did not materialise against Cameron.

Depressingly unsurprising

Andrew Neil
Europol says people-smuggling now fastest growing criminal activity in Europe.

Plato_Says said:

The clip that's popping up from Marr is this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184958/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-outlines-case-for-Brexit-on-Andrew-Marr-Show-live-updates.html

Come on Plato, be honest, if Boris had fallen off the fence and landed on the other side you and the other BREXITERS would be slagging him off unmercifully on a daily basis.

Alistair said:

I may be paraphrasing a little

Tories will say and do anything to try and get a losers seat

peter_from_putney said:

frpenkridge said:

"It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules."
In the EU prison we act like Godber whilst France and Germany act like Harry Grout.

Did you say Grout with a "G"?

frpenkridge said:

"It is a very odd prison, if that's what it is, in which the prisoners all have a say in the rules."
In the EU prison we act like Godber whilst France and Germany act like Harry Grout.

Aren't there prisons in the Philippines and South America where the authorities basically let the gangs run them as long as they don't leave and don't kill anyone? It's not a bad analogy if Boris was thinking of one of those.